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S&P 500 ~ Monthly Log Scale

This longer term count remains favored. Nothing in the market has altered this view. The higher this (B) wave travels, though, it becomes more likely the (C) Wave will not be that powerful of a move. The (B) wave is „telling a tale‟ of underlying strength. So, the next corrective move lower should cause the S&P 500 to break below 1,000 but it‟s unlikely we will see action below 900. This next (C) will be at least a TWO YEAR grind lower.

9/1/2000

< III >

-B(B)
“z” “y”

(D)

“w”

“x”

“x” (E)

(C)

-C-

-A(A)

REPRINTED from 4/22/2012 in order to re-emphasize the bigger picture count.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly
This model continues to be my best accounting of the price action from the lows. The highs from early April (1419) will be need to hold in order to maintain this count. Any action above there would suggest a different type of correction from the Mar „09 lows. It would be most likely a seven legged „diametric,‟ an idea that we‟ve discussed before.

(B)

“y”

“z”?
b

b? d

b

“w”
d

a e c

a?

“x”

a c

e

“x”

(A)
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly: A Diametric?
A diametric would suggest a new high for the (B) Wave but only marginally so due to the „constraints‟ of a this particular pattern. When the “c” wave is shorter than the “a” wave, the “g” wave MUST be shorter than the “e” wave. This particular outcome would be an extremely difficult market to trade for the next several months and would certainly wear down most bears/shorts.

(B)

“e” “c”
b

“g”

d
b a e d c a c e

“f” “d”

“a”

“b”

(A)
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance
Because of the potential five wave down setup highlighted on the previous page, we still want to take a stab at shorting the 61.8% retracement. We will target the 1357-1366 area as a „sell zone‟ at least on the first go. Bulls/longs should consider 1327 as a stop on any length. That would be a strong enough move below the neckline to suggest a failure of the „head and shoulder‟ bottom. In fact, a move back below 1327 would cause us to initiate shorts again on the S&P 500.

REPRINTED from 6/17/2012

Neckline

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance
This has become a very confusing market pattern with all the „whipsaw‟ you would like. The shorter term posture must be “on the sidelines” while waiting for greater clarity. The “Fibbo technicians” out there get another “opportunity” to sell the 61.8% retrace at 1362, but it doesn‟t look like a good sell the second time around. This looks like a market that wants to probe higher levels. The good news for the bears is that the move up from 1266 is definitely only corrective in nature. The bad news is the Friday move went out „like a boss‟ and showed no signs of peaking. Bulls should consider 1330 as support, but again, this market is so choppy and unpredictable right now, it makes little sense to even be involved.

(y)?
[c]

(w)?
[c]

[a]

[b] [a]

[b]

(x)?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support
Even though the idea of a large scale Head and Shoulder bottom is being threatened with the move back towards 81.65, risk/reward still favors buying this market in this zone. A break below the 61.8% retrace (80.49) or a break below the uptrend line should force an exit of any trading length.
-e-

REPRINTED from 6/17/2012
-c-

-a-

-d-

-b-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support
The Dollar Index was destroyed on Friday on European headlines, though he DXY still looks bullish on basic charting techniques: “higher highs and higher lows.” While the move on Friday was nauseating for longs, risk/reward still favors buying dips. Bulls should use 81.19 and 80.18 as support/pivot points in the week ahead.
-e-? (a)

-c-

-a-

(b)

-d-

-b-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1“ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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