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UNIVERSITI TUN HUSSEIN ONN MALAYSIA

MASTERS PROJECT ( PS1) PRESENTATION: LIFETIME PREDICTION AND ESTIMATION OF POWER TRANSFORMER

STUDENT

:SYAHIRA RAIHAN BT OON

SUPERVISOR :DR MOHD TAUFIQ B. ISHAK Click to edit Master subtitle style CHAIRMAN PANEL :DR KOK BOON CHING :PM. DR ZAINAL ALAM B. HARON DR DUR MUHAMMAD SOOMRO

CONTENT

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INTRODUCTION

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STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

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OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH

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SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH

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LITERATURE REVIEW

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LITERATURE REVIEW

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COMPARISON ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION

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COMPARISON ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION

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COMPARISON ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Journal Objective Method Outcome

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Transformer Life i. Prediction Using Data from Units Removed from Service and Thermal ii. Modeling

Predict the transformer life Condition assessment: by using insulating paper i. Dissolve Gas Analysis from scrapped transformers ii. Degree of Analyze for degree of polymerization polymerization (DP)

Condition based replacement means that statistical analysis of failure rates is not helpful in modeling lifetimes, but data from scrapped and failed transformers has been used to demonstrate that age-related failures

Evaluating Mean Life of Power System Equipment With Limited End of Life Failure Data

i.

ii.

Introduce two methods to estimate the mean life of a power system equipment Use information data including both died and surviving components

i.

ii.

Normal Distribution method Weibull distribution method

The estimates of the mean life using the normal and Weibull distribution models are close in this case. Comparison between the estimates using the presented methods and the sample mean technique, the presented methods provide more reasonable results

Prediction of Remaining i. Life of Power Transformers Based on Left Truncated ii. and Right Censored Lifetime Data

Prediction of the remaining life of power transformer. Use left truncated and right censored data

i.

ii.

Log-location-scale distribution for lifetime model for left truncated and right censored data. Weibull distribution method

Better predictive model that would more accurately predict individual lifetimes by using environmental information for the individual transformers

METHODOLOGY

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General Block Diagram of

FLOWCHART FOR PS1 PROGRESSION

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FLOWCHART FOR PS2 PROGRESSION

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ASSESSING END OF LIFE FAILURE PROBABILITY

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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION METHOD

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, .

Relationship between failure rate and age for a Normal probability distribution

Relationship between failure rate and age for a Weibull probability distribution

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

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NORMAL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

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NORMAL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

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least square method to estimate the mean life and standard deviation Age year the sum of squares of all errors Me an Standard Deviation

WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

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WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

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WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

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WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

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Initial and
obtain

Obtain by using .

Me an

Standard Deviation Gamma function

EXPECTED RESULT

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CONCLUSION

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REFERENCE

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REFERENCE

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