U.S.

Science & Technology: Issues and Outlook
by

Erich Bloch
Director

September 26, 2005
1

Innovation
“… intersection of invention and insight; leading to the creation of social and economic values.”
SOURCE: Council on Competitiveness, Innovate America, 2004.
2

World Economy

3

Real GDP (PPP): Projections 2004 - 2015 (Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates)
Trillions of 1995 International Dollars 16 India Canada 14 Italy Russian Federation 12 China France Japan United Kingdom Brazil Germany Mexico United States

China

United States

10

India France Italy Brazil United Kingdom Russian Federation

8

6

Germany Japan Canada

Mexico

4

2

0 2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015 4

SOURCE: World Bank Institute, unpublished presentation, August 4, 2005

Global Competitiveness Rankings
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Finland United States Sweden Taiwan Denmark Norway Singapore Switzerland Japan Iceland 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 55 United Kingdom Netherlands Germany Australia Canada Israel Ireland China India
5

SOURCE: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2004-2005

Ireland
• Size: 4,015,676 population / 70,280 sq km • GDP: $126.4 billion / $31,900 per capita 5.1% growth rate • Labor Force: 1.92 million 4.3% unemployment • Higher Education:
– Doctorate-granting institutions: 8 – Total undergrad enrollment: 118,569 – Total graduate enrollment: 15,318
6

Adjusted for Inflation, U.S. Per Capita GDP Has Increased by 50% Since 1985
Per Capita GDP 1985-2004, Thousands of 2003 Dollars Thousands of 2003 dollars per person

39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc. 7

The U.S. Keeps Its Lead Over Developed Economies
Per Capita GDP As a Percent of U.S. Level, Purchasing Power Parity Basis 100 95 Percent of U.S. Level 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Canada
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.

Japan

U.K.

Eurozone

8

IT Accounted for Nearly Half of Business Investment
Investment as Percent of Total Business Fixed Investment, 2004

Structures 23% Information Technologies 40% Industrial Equipment 12% Transport Equipment 12%

Other Equipment 13%

SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc. 9

The Wide Dispersion in U.S. Incomes Persists
Mean Household Pretax Income, Thousands of 2003 Dollars 160 140 Thousands of 2003 Dollars 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest Quintile

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2003. Income excludes noncash benefits.

10

Increase in U.S. Trade Deficit Accompanied by Growing Federal Budget Deficit
Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits, Billions of Dollars 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Federal Budget
SOURCE: Global Insight, Inc.

International Current Account

11

Technology Balance of Payments
Millions of U.S. $
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 (5,000) (10,000) 1981 1985 1991 1995 2001 2002

France

Germany

Italy

Japan

UK

USA

SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook, 2004

12

R&D

13

Federal Commitments to R&D Have Waned
US R&D Expenditures as a percentage of GDP: 1953-2002

3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
1962 1965 1977 1980 1992 1995 1953 1956 1959 1968 1971 1974 1983 1986 1989 1998 2001

Total R&D/GDP

Federal R&D/GDP

Non-Federal R&D/GDP

SOURCE: National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics.

14

Support for Engineering and Physical Sciences Lagged
Federal Obligations for total research by field, millions of constant 1996 dollars

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Life Sciences Environmental Sciences Engineering

Physical Sciences Math and Computer Sciences

SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.

15

Fast Growth in R&D Outside the U.S. Demonstrates a Commitment to Innovation
Compound Annual Growth Rate in R&D Expenditures, 1991-2001 or Latest Year Available 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0
Ire la nd Ca na da Ko re a Ja pa n Sw ed en an y Fr an ce U. K .A U. S G er m Ita ly

SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook 2004

16

Global R&D Investment Continues to Expand
Total R&D Investment as a Percent of GDP, 1991 and 2001 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Japan Sweden France Germany Canada Korea U.S.A Ireland Italy

1991
SOURCE: OECD STI Outlook 2004

2001
17

S&E Workforce

18

S&E Job Growth Projected to Exceed Overall Job Growth Rate
Projected Increase in Employment, Percent Change from 2000 to 2010 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 All Occupations
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.

47

15

All S&E Occupations
19

Outside of Life Sciences, Undergraduate Degrees in S&E Were Flat or Declining
Earned S&E Bachelor Degrees, select years 1977-2000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 Physical sciences Biological sciences Mathematics Engineering

SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004. 20

US Share of Worldwide S&E Degrees Awarded Declined Significantly
Ratio of First University S&E Degrees to 24-year-old Population, 1975 and 2000, or most recent year

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
ico It it z aly er la n G er d m a C ny N ana et he da rl a nd s Ja pa n Sp ai n Ire la U Sw nd ni te ed d Ki en n So gd ut om h Ko re Ta a iw an Fr an c Fi e nl an d ni orw te a d St y at es a M ex hi n C lg i um

Be

N

U

Sw

1975

2000

SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.

21

Noncitizens Account for Growth in S&E Doctorates in US
S&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded in US, 1973-2001 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
19 73 19 76 19 79 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97 20 00

U.S. White Male

U.S. White Female

U.S. minority

Foreign

Total

SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.

22

Number of S&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded Growing Faster Worldwide Than in US
Compounded Annual Growth Rate of S&E Doctoral Degrees Awarded, 19912001

China Taiwan South Korea Japan United Kingdom France India Germany United States 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
23

SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004.

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