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C - The World Coal Trade. ELSAM, Denmark.

C - The World Coal Trade. ELSAM, Denmark.

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Published by CoalFiredShipTech
1980. WORLD Coal Study (WOCOL) with partcipation from major coal producing and using countries has analyzed the need for coal and the role of coal as an alternative energy source for the rest of this century.
1980. WORLD Coal Study (WOCOL) with partcipation from major coal producing and using countries has analyzed the need for coal and the role of coal as an alternative energy source for the rest of this century.

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<
THEWORLDCOALTRADE.
PoulSachmann
l'-
ELSAM,Denmark.
WORLDCoalStudy(WOCOL)withparticipationofpeoplefrommajorcoalproducingandusingcountrieshasanalysedtheneedforcoalandtheroleofcoalasanalternativeenergysourcefortherestofthiscentury.Theresultsarepresentedinthepublication"Coal-BridgetotheFuture".Thestudywascarriedout
with
ageographicalsplit-upasshowninFigure1.ThemembersofWOCOLhavemadenationalreportswhichformthebasisforWOCOL'spredictionsontherangeoffuturecoalproduction,useandtrade.Twocasesassumingdifferentincreasesintheworld'scoalconsumptionhavebeenconsi-dered.CaseAwithagrowthrateof1.75percentperannumandcaseBwith2.5percentperannum.Mostofthecoalisusedforelectricityproductionandevenwithamoderategrowthof3percentp.a.oftheelectricityconsumptionwithintheOECD-countriestherewillbeanincreaseofthesteamcoalconsumptionfrom600mtce(milliontonsofcoalequivalent)in1977to1325mtceintheyear2000.Figures2to6showsomeoftheprojectionsconcerningelectricityproductionandcoalconsumptionwhichWOCOLhasreached.CoalmarketandpricesWOCOLisoftheopinionthatevenwithhightransportationandenvironmentalcost:thecoalpricewillcontinuetobecompetitivetooilandotherenergysources.Thereasonisthatunliketheoilmarketthecoalmarketandreservesareabundantandarespreadthroughouttheworld.Itisunlikelythataninternationalcoalcartel-asinoil-willbeestablished.
DayOne-PaperNo.2
 
Overalongperiodtheupperlimitforthecoalpricewill
be
thecheapestalternativeenergy,andproductionandtransportationcostswillbethelowerlimitinfuture.Itisnotlikelythatcoalpricewillbecoupledtooilprice.Itis,however,likelythatthecoalpricewillriseinrealterms.Coststobuildupnewmines,newhealthandsafetyrequirements,environmentalprotectionandcostsinestablishingnewexportfacilitiesinportswillcontributetoincreasedprices.Ontheotherhandahigherdegreeofmechanization,largervessels,etc.willreducetheseincreases.198019902000Otherthancoal5.57.810.0Coal1.12.13.7Total
6.6
9.913.7MaritimetransportationTheincreasedsteamcoaltradeprojectedbyWOCOLwillrequireradicalimprovementsintransportationfacilitiesandportsinmostofthecoalproducingandcoalconsumingcountries,andwillhaveanessentialinfluenceonthedevelopmentofmaritimetransportationintheyearstocome.ThemajorcoaltraderoutesgofromUSA,Canada,AustraliaandSouthAfricatoWesternEuropeandEastAsia(mainlyJapan).(Figure
7).
OnthebasisoftheprojectionsforcoalconsumptionWOCOLhasdevelopedaforecastformaritimetransportationin1980-2000.Theneedfordrybulktransportationcapacity(amountofbulktransported
x
lengthofvoyage)isshownbelow:(Unit:10
12
tons
x
miles)Incomparisonthetotaltonnageavailablein1979,includingcombinedvessels,amountedto
8.4
x
10
12
tons
x
miles.Thetonnageavailableandtonnageneededispredictedtobalanceintheperiod1981.1983.Itisexpectedthattheneedfornewtonnage,includingoil-tankers,willreachamaximumof50mio.dwtannuallyinthemideighties.Experiencesfromtheyears1970-75whereanenormousincreaseinshipbuildingactivitytookplaceshowthatwithasensiblelead-timeitshouldbepossibletomeetthecapacitydemand.FreightratesandvesselsizesFigure
8
illustratestheeffectofvesselsizesonfreightrates.TheratesarecalculatedforadoublevoyagefromoverseastoScandinaviaandisapurecostcalculationwithnoregardtocurrentmarketfluctuations.Thelargestbulk-carrierstodayareabout150000dwt,butWOCOLexpectsthatinordertoreducefreightrates,thetrendisprobablytowardslargervessels,evenupto250000dwt,before1990.
 
Anotherfactorwhichaffectsthefreightratesistheexpectedbackhaulopportunities.WOCOLisoftheopinionthatthegrowthinotherbulkcommoditieswillnotbeabletokeeppacewiththegrowthinthecoaltrade,andthis
will
producelessbackhaulopportunitiesinfuturewithrisingfreightratesonthelongestroutesasaresult.PortfacilitiesMostofthelargecoalexportershaverealizedthatitisnecessarytoinvestinmodernbulk-handling,storagefacilitiesandlargerportswhichcanaccommodatelargebulk-carriers.InCanadaithasnowbeendecidedtoexpandRobertsBankto250000dwtvesselsbefore1984.Thecapacitywillthenreach27mio.tonannually.FurthermoreanewportnearPrinceRupertcapableofhandling150000dwtvesselsisplannedwithfinancialsupportfromJapan.
I
InSouthAfricaanexpansionoftheRichardsBayfacilitytoacapacityof44mio.tonisbeingconstructedandisexpectedfinishedin1983/84.Today'scapacityisabout22mio.tonperyear.Afurtherextensionto100mio.tonispossible.Itmight,however,berequiredthatanewportisbuiltinthesouthernpartofAfricatomeetincreasingexportvolumesfromSouthAfrica,Mozambique,Botswana,etc.Australiawhichhasalargecoalexportpotentialisplanningtodevelopnewcoalterminalfacilities.HayPointcantodayaccommodatevesselsupto150000dwt.In1981Newcastlewillbeabletohandle100000dwtvesselsandfurtherextensionsareplanned.Gladstonecantodayhandle60000dwtvesselsat12mdepthandisdesignedforfuturedeepeningto16.5m,andfacilitiestohandle120000dwtvessels.ThePortKemblafacilityistodayabletohandlePan-maxsizedvesselsandwiththeconti-nuedextensionsitmightbepossibletohandlepart-loaded170000dwtvessels.TheUnitedStateshasthelargestcoalexportpotential(Figure6)andisexpectedtobecoveringalargeamountoftheincreasedsteamcoaldemandintheWOCOLcountries.Itisobviousthattheremustbehugeimprovementsinexportingfacilitiestomeetthisincreasingcoaldemand.Thisisverifiedbythefactthattheincreaseincoalexportsthisyearhasmadetheloadingsituationontheeastcoastalmostimpossible.AtHamptonRoadsandBaltimorethewaitingtimetodayisabout25days,which,ofcourse,influencesthetransportationcostsandattheendtheC.I.F.coalprice.Inthefirstfivemonthsof1980steamcoalexport(Canadaexcluded)wassixtimeslargerthanlastyear'sexportinthesameperiod.NationalCoalAssociationhasnowagainreviseditsforecastforoverseasexportandisexpecting58mio.tonsofexportthisyear.Intheyear2000WOCOLpredictsthatUScoalexportwillbeatleast125-200mio.tonandperhapsreachasmuchas300.400mio.ton.Figure9showsprojectedUScoalexportsrelativetototalproduction.

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