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PURPLE INSIGHTS
PURPLE ANALYSIS
PURPLEPOLL
A small bump for Romney, but not a game change.
In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romneys selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, the GOP ticket has drawn even with the Democratic ticket. Today, Romney and Ryan lead the Obama-Biden ticket by a point (47% to 46%), an improvement from July when President Obama led Romney by 2 points, 47% to 45%. The Romney-Ryan ticket is fueled by an 11-point advantage among independents. This represents an increase from July, when Romney held a 5-point margin over Obama among that key group. In our Purple Predictor states, Ryans addition to the ticket has had a mixed impact on the race.
August 2012
Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%. Romney also gained ground in Virginia today, he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by 2 points in July. However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the ObamaBiden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in July. Taken as a whole, these data indicate a small bump in the immediate aftermath of the Ryan announcement. Nonetheless, it is also the first sign of positive momentum for the Romney campaign that weve seen in the PurplePoll in the last few months.
Ryan is the best liked of the four candidates, and his selection has bolstered Romneys image. At 45% to 39%, Paul Ryan is the only member of either major party ticket who currently has higher favorables than unfavorables. He is extremely well-liked among Republicans (80%/9%), and independents have an overall favorable opinion of him (46%/37%). Over the next few weeks, the two campaigns will be racing to define him among those 16% that dont have an opinion. At +6 in Purple States overall, Ryans image trails Sarah Palins national image just after she was announced as the vice Presidential candidate in 2008. A CNN poll among likely voters at the time of her pick showed her with a net favorable rating of +17. Among Republicans, Sarah Palin had a net favorability of +77, 6 points better than Ryans +71. Ryans personal image is at this point better than his Democratic counterpoint: 41% have a favorable view of the Vice President, compared to 48% unfavorable.
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PURPLE ANALYSIS
Romneys personal image appears to have improved following the announcement: 45% favorable, 48% unfavorable. While still net unfavorable, this represents a substantial improvement from July, when he was net -8. For the first time in the PurplePoll we tested Obamas favorability (we have been testing job performance), and we found him to have a very similar rating as Romney: 47% favorable, 49% unfavorable. Taken together, these measures indicate that the vice presidential roll-out has successfully provided modest momentum for the GOP ticket moving toward the convention. For those seeking a game change event (in either direction), this wasnt it. Romney has advantages on the economy and c hanging Wa shi n g ton , wh i le s h i f ti ng th e conversation to Medicare helps President Obama. By a 3-point margin, Purple state voters believe that Romney and Ryan have a better plan to reduce the deficit, create jobs, and get the economy
moving again (46% to 43%). This advantage is substantially larger among independents: 48% to 34%. This result is directly linked to voters views of the current state of the economy: just 29% believe that the economy is getting better. Additionally, by a 6-point margin, voters in these key swing states believe that Romney and Ryan are more likely to bring real change to Washington, a margin that is +17 among independents. However, the Romney-Ryan ticket has a significant disadvantage on Medicare. Asked which of the two tickets is more likely to protect Medicare, Purple State voters choose Obama-Biden by an 8-point margin (48% to 40%). On that issue, the Democratic ticket holds a 2-point advantage among independents, 43% to 41%. While the inclusion of Paul Ryan has provided positive movement for the ticket overall, a debate about Medicare reform appears likely to harm the GOP ticket in the longer term.
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PURPLE OVERALL
PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
OVERALL:
Obama Favorability
Favorable: 47% Unfavorable: 49% Not sure: 4%
Romney Favorability
Favorable: 45% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 7%
Biden Favorability
Favorable: 41% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 11%
Ryan Favorability
Favorable: 45% Unfavorable: 39% Not sure: 16%
Obama Job
Approve: 43% Disapprove: 51% Not sure: 6%
Obama v. Romney
Obama: 46% Romney: 47% Not sure: 6%
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PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
Colorado
Obama Favorability
Favorable: 46% Unfavorable: 50% Not sure: 4%
Virginia
Obama v. Romney
Obama: 49% Romney: 46% Not sure: 5%
Obama Favorability
Favorable: 46% Unfavorable: 49% Not sure: 4%
Obama v. Romney
Obama: 45% Romney: 48% Not sure: 8%
Romney Favorability
Favorable: 46% Unfavorable: 50% Not sure: 4%
Romney Favorability
Favorable: 47% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 5%
Biden Favorability
Favorable: 41% Unfavorable: 49% Not sure: 10%
Biden Favorability
Favorable: 38% Unfavorable: 50% Not sure: 12%
Ryan Favorability
Favorable: 44% Unfavorable: 38% Not sure: 17%
Ryan Favorability
Favorable: 46% Unfavorable: 40% Not sure: 14%
Obama Job
Approve: 45% Disapprove: 48% Not sure: 8%
Obama Job
Approve: 42% Disapprove: 52% Not sure: 6%
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PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
Ohio
Obama Favorability
Favorable: 45% Unfavorable: 50% Not sure: 5%
Florida
Obama v. Romney
Obama: 44% Romney: 46% Not sure: 10%
Obama Favorability
Favorable: 46% Unfavorable: 49% Not sure: 5%
Obama v. Romney
Obama: 47% Romney: 48% Not sure: 5%
Romney Favorability
Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 52% Not sure: 6%
Romney Favorability
Favorable: 45% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 7%
Biden Favorability
Favorable: 41% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 12%
Biden Favorability
Favorable: 41% Unfavorable: 48% Not sure: 11%
Ryan Favorability
Favorable: 40% Unfavorable: 41% Not sure: 18%
Ryan Favorability
Favorable: 43% Unfavorable: 39% Not sure: 18%
Obama Job
Approve: 42% Disapprove: 52% Not sure: 6%
Obama Job
Approve: 42% Disapprove: 52% Not sure: 6%
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PURPLE OVERALL
PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
PURPLE TRACKING
Obama Job Approval
60
Direction of Economy
50
Getting Better Getting Worse Same
44%
53% 52%
53%
50% 46%
50 40 30 20
51%
40
37% 36%
41% 41%
41%
43%
Disapprove Approve
30
29%
10 0
Not Sure
20
Feb. 11
Mar. 12
Apr. 12
July 12
Romney Favorability
60 50
57% 56% 48% 49% 49% 41% 38% 39% 27% 29% 48%
50
46% 43%
45% 45%
47% 43%
46% 44%
47% 43%
48% 44%
48% 44%
48% 46%
47% 45%
47% 46%
40
40
45%
30
Barack Obama Mitt Romney Not Sure
32% 30%
30 20 10 0
29%
30%
20
10
Sep. 11
Nov. 11
Dec. 11 Jan. 12
Feb. 12
Mar. 12
Apr. 12
Jun. 12
July 12
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PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
August 2012 Main Questionnaire % % % % % % % % % % By State Gender
Male Female GOP
Party
Ind
Education
Dem Non-Coll Coll+
Total July12 June12 April12 Mar12 Feb12 Jan12 Dec11 Nov11 Sep11
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Approve Disapprove Not sure
47 49 4 45 48 7 41 48 11 45 39 16 43 51 6 46 47 6 91 7 2
41 49 10 46 49 4 47 45 8 -
39 49 12 47 49 4 48 46 7 -
38 48 15 47 48 5 48 44 8 -
29 56 14 46 50 4 48 44 8 -
27 57 16 44 50 6 47 43 10 -
30 54 16 45 50 6 46 44 10 -
29 47 24 41 53 6 47 43 11 -
30 45 25 41 52 6 45 45 11 -
32 39 29 41 53 7 43 46 11 -
46 50 4 46 50 4 41 49 10 44 38 17 45 48 8 49 46 5 94 4 2
46 49 4 47 48 5 38 50 12 46 40 14 42 52 6 45 48 8 90 9 2
45 50 5 42 52 6 41 48 12 40 41 18 42 52 6 44 46 10 95 4 1
46 49 5 45 48 7 41 48 11 43 39 18 42 52 6 47 48 5 91 7 2
41 55 4 50 44 6 37 55 8 52 36 11 36 58 7 41 53 6 90 8 2
51 44 4 41 52 7 44 42 14 39 42 19 49 45 6 51 42 6 92 6 2
10 88 2 82 13 5 10 81 8 80 9 11 8 89 3 9 87 4 93 6 1
38 55 7 46 45 9 36 51 13 46 37 17 37 55 8 39 50 11 87 9 3
84 13 2 14 81 5 70 18 12 15 67 18 78 15 7 85 12 3 93 5 1
46 50 4 45 47 8 38 49 13 43 38 19 41 51 7 45 47 7 92 6 2
47 50 3 46 49 5 43 48 9 48 40 12 44 51 5 47 48 5 91 7 2
If the 2012 presidential election were Obama-Biden held today and the candidates were: the Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden or the Romney-Ryan Republican ticket of Romney-Ryan, Not sure for whom would you vote?
Are you certain to vote that way, or is it possible that you will change your mind before Election Day?
Fielded 8/13-8/14, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1000 likely voters, margin of error +/-3.1. OH, FL, VA and CO have been oversampled to N=600 per state, margin of error +/-4.0.
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PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
August 2012 Main Questionnaire % % % % % % % % % % By State Gender
Male Female GOP
Party
Ind
Education
Dem Non-Coll Coll+
Total July12 June12 April12 Mar12 Feb12 Jan12 Dec11 Nov11 Sep11
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same?
Getting better Getting worse Staying about the same Not sure Obama-Biden Romney-Ryan Not sure Obama-Biden Romney-Ryan Not sure Obama-Biden
29 44 25 2 43 46 11 40 46 15 48 40 12 42 45 13
28 42 29 1 -
36 35 28 1 -
39 35 24 1 -
36 37 26 1 -
27 44 27 2 45 44 11 40 42 18 51 39 10 44 43 13
32 42 25 1 42 47 11 40 47 13 50 39 11 42 46 12
26 45 28 2 42 43 15 39 46 16 50 37 14 43 41 16
31 42 25 2 41 47 12 39 46 15 45 44 11 41 46 13
26 46 26 1 37 51 12 34 51 15 45 45 11 39 51 10
32 42 24 2 48 41 11 44 42 14 52 36 13 45 40 15
8 72 19 1 7 85 7 6 84 10 14 75 10 9 83 8
23 48 27 2 34 48 18 31 48 21 43 41 16 39 48 14
52 16 30 2 81 11 9 75 13 12 81 9 9 73 12 15
25 46 28 2 43 45 12 39 46 14 47 40 13 40 43 17
34 42 22 1 43 47 10 40 47 14 49 41 10 44 48 8
Who do you think has a better plan to reduce the deficit, create jobs and get the economy moving again?
Tax breaks for rich/ends Medicare Reduce defict/help economy and Medicare Not sure
Fielded 8/13-8/14, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1000 likely voters, margin of error +/-3.1. OH, FL, VA and CO have been oversampled to N=600 per state, margin of error +/-4.0.
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PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
COLORADO
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Approve
%
Total
46 50 4 46 50 4 41 49 10 44 38 17 45 48 8 49 46 5 27 44 27 2
%
37 55 9 45 51 4 45 44 11 30 42 27 1
%
42 50 7 48 48 5 48 46 5 -
%
36 51 14 43 53 4 47 47 6 37 35 26 1
Gender
39 58 3 54 42 5 36 59 5 50 35 15 36 55 9 43 52 5 24 49 26 1 54 42 5 39 58 3 46 40 14 39 41 20 53 41 7 54 40 6 30 39 27 3
Party
Ind
46 49 5 40 53 8 41 46 13 43 37 20 42 48 10 43 47 10 27 41 29 2
Education
Dem Non- Coll Coll+
78 16 6 18 78 4 69 20 10 12 66 21 76 12 11 84 11 5 42 19 36 3 47 48 5 47 47 5 38 49 14 42 37 21 46 46 9 47 46 7 20 46 30 4 45 52 3 46 51 2 44 49 7 47 39 15 44 50 6 49 47 4 31 44 25 0
VIRGINIA
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Approve
%
Total
46 49 4 47 48 5 38 50 12 46 40 14 42 52 6 45 48 8 32 42 25 1
%
41 49 11 45 50 5 46 44 10 30 41 27 2
%
43 49 8 45 51 5 49 46 5 -
%
36 48 16 45 50 6 48 46 6 39 35 25 1
Gender
39 56 5 56 38 6 32 59 9 55 35 10 35 59 6 36 55 9 31 46 23 0 53 44 3 39 56 5 43 42 15 38 45 17 48 45 7 53 41 6 33 38 28 2
Party
Ind
40 54 6 48 47 5 34 54 12 49 37 14 36 54 9 40 49 11 27 45 27 0
Education
Dem Non- Coll Coll+
90 8 1 13 83 4 70 16 14 11 75 14 83 12 5 87 10 3 63 9 27 1 48 49 3 43 51 6 35 47 18 45 37 18 46 50 4 48 45 6 35 41 23 0 46 49 4 49 46 5 40 52 8 47 43 10 40 52 8 44 49 8 31 41 26 2
Obama Favorability
Obama Favorability
Romney Favorability
Romney Favorability
Biden Favorability
Biden Favorability
Ryan Favorability
Ryan Favorability
Obama Job
Obama Job
Obama-Biden Obama-Biden vs. Romney-Ryan Romney-Ryan Not sure Direction Getting worse of the Staying about the same Economy
Not sure
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
Obama-Biden Obama-Biden vs. Romney-Ryan Romney-Ryan Not sure Direction Getting worse of the Staying about the same Economy
Not sure
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
Getting better
Getting better
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PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
OHIO
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Approve
%
Total
45 50 5 42 52 6 41 48 12 40 41 18 42 52 6 44 46 10 26 45 28 2
%
37 50 13 46 49 5 48 45 7 33 39 26 2
%
38 48 13 43 52 5 45 48 8 -
%
34 54 12 47 47 5 49 44 7 36 34 29 0
Gender
39 57 4 49 45 5 36 55 9 47 37 16 36 60 4 38 55 7 20 48 31 1 50 45 5 36 57 7 45 42 13 35 45 20 47 45 7 49 39 13 30 42 26 2
Party
Ind
31 62 7 46 45 9 29 54 16 42 40 18 29 64 8 31 53 16 18 52 26 3
Education
Dem Non- Coll Coll+
84 14 3 10 87 2 76 17 8 12 71 18 82 12 6 84 9 7 46 14 39 1 46 49 5 40 53 7 42 46 12 39 42 19 43 51 6 44 45 10 25 45 27 2 44 53 3 47 49 4 40 51 10 44 40 16 42 53 5 43 49 7 26 44 29 1
FLORIDA
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Approve
%
Total
46 49 5 45 48 7 41 48 11 43 39 18 42 52 6 47 48 5 31 42 25 2
%
47 46 6 43 54 3 45 48 7 29 46 24 2
%
43 47 11 45 50 5 45 49 6 -
%
45 44 12 46 50 4 45 47 7 33 38 28 1
Gender
46 46 7 43 48 9 42 46 11 42 43 15 40 52 8 49 46 6 32 39 28 1 46 51 3 47 47 5 39 50 11 45 35 20 43 53 4 45 50 4 30 45 23 2
Party
Ind
48 44 9 38 54 7 47 43 9 42 45 14 42 49 9 52 40 8 27 38 33 2
Education
Dem Non- Coll Coll+
82 14 4 15 80 4 68 19 12 14 66 20 77 16 7 83 15 2 52 16 29 2 45 51 5 46 46 9 37 50 13 43 37 20 39 52 9 45 48 7 26 43 29 2 47 47 5 45 49 5 45 47 9 44 43 13 44 53 3 49 49 3 35 42 22 1
Obama Favorability
Obama Favorability
Romney Favorability
Romney Favorability
Biden Favorability
Biden Favorability
Ryan Favorability
Ryan Favorability
Obama Job
Obama Job
Obama-Biden Obama-Biden vs. Romney-Ryan Romney-Ryan Not sure Direction Getting worse of the Staying about the same Economy
Not sure
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
Obama-Biden Obama-Biden vs. Romney-Ryan Romney-Ryan Not sure Direction Getting worse of the Staying about the same Economy
Not sure
N=600, margin of error +\- 4.0.
Getting better
Getting better
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PURPLEPOLL
August 2012
8.
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same? 1) Getting better 2) Getting worse 3) Staying about the same 4) Not sure
9.
Who do you think has a better plan to reduce the deficit, create jobs and get the economy moving again? 1) Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan 2) Barack Obama and Joe Biden 3) Dont know
10. Who is more likely to bring real change to Washington? 1) Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan 2) Barack Obama and Joe Biden 3) Dont know 11. Who is more likely to protect Medicare? 1) Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan 2) Barack Obama and Joe Biden 3) Dont know 12. Let me read you two statements on the economic plan put forward by Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, and please tell me which one comes closer to your view: 1) The Romney-Ryan budget will get our economy moving by cutting government spending, reducing taxes for everyone, and reforming Medicare to protect it for the long term. Its what we need to move forward. 2) The Romney-Ryan budget is a radical plan that cuts taxes for the wealthy while raising taxes on the middle class. It ends Medicare as we know it by replacing guaranteed coverage with vouchers. Now is not the time to turn back to the Bush years. 3) Dont know
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