Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Save to My Library
Look up keyword
Like this
3Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
MI-03 GQR for Steve Pestka (Aug. 2012)

MI-03 GQR for Steve Pestka (Aug. 2012)

Ratings: (0)|Views: 183 |Likes:
Published by Daily Kos Elections

More info:

Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Aug 30, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

05/11/2014

pdf

text

original

 
 
WORLD HEADQUARTERS10 G Street, NE, Suite 500Washington, DC 20002EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS405 Carrington House6 Hertford StreetLondon UK W1J 7SULATIN AMERICAN HEADQUARTERSCabrera 6060, 7 DC1414 BHNCiudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
www.gqrr.com|www.greenbergresearch.com 
August 28, 2012
Michigan 3 In Play for Steve Pestka
Amash Continues to Have Serious VulnerabilitiesTo:
Interested Parties
From:
Andrew Baumann and Angela Kuefler, GQRR
 
Michigan’s 3
rd
District represents a challenging, but very real, pickup opportunity for DemocratSteve Pestka. The Grand Rapids-based district continues to lean Republican, but slightlyfriendlier congressional lines combined with Pestka’s strong profile and incumbent JustinAmash’s unique and significant vulnerabilities put the race in play.Although he has been in Washington for more than a year and a half, Amash remains largelyundefined to voters. And his Ron Paul-like record of casting extreme votes in the extreme mi-nority leaves him even more open to definition than other incumbent Republicans in an alreadytarget-rich year. Meanwhile, Pestka comes out of a tough primary fight relatively unscathed andhis profile as an independent former judge, prosecutor and current small business owner reso-nates with these West Michigan voters. After both candidates are introduced to voters with apositive profile, the race is a dead heat, at 46 to 48 percent, well within the margin of error.The following are key findings from a poll of 501 likely voters conducted August 18-21.
1
 
Key Findings
 
District conservative, but partisan landscape improved after redistricting.
The additionof Battle Creek and Calhoun County in redistricting made this seat slightly more Democraticand, in fact, Obama won the vote in 2008 within the new district. Democrats have a 6-pointparty ID advantage in the new portions of the district, and just a 4-point deficit across the en-tire district.
 
Primary, barrage of anti-Obama ads have not hurt Pestka vis-à-vis Amash.
Despitedealing with a somewhat contentious primary and a political landscape that has seen MittRomney and his allies vastly outspend Barack Obama and his allies in the state, Pestka’sstarting point against Amash has not deteriorated. In fact, with an initial 42 to 50 percentdeficit, Pestka has gained three points since our February survey, an increase within thesurvey’s margin of error.
 
Pestka’s profile resonates with voters.
As we noted, the less-well known Pestka beginsthe survey trailing the incumbent by 8 points. But after voters are read a positive profile oneach candidate, the gap closes to just two points, 46 to 48 percent. Pestka’s profile particu-larly resonates with the more conservative-leaning independents of the district, among

Activity (3)

You've already reviewed this. Edit your review.
1 thousand reads
1 thousand reads
1 hundred reads

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->