September 24, 2012 TO: Interested Parties FR: Marc Silverman RE: Polling results in Pennsylvania Senate District

49 Recent polling in Pennsylvanias 49th State Senate District shows Democrat Sean Wiley with a commanding lead over Republican Janet Anderson. Voters continue to favor a Democratic candidate on the generic ballot by a wide margin and President Obama remains very popular in the district, leading Republican Mitt Romney by over 20 points. This seat remains a top pick-up target for Democrats, and Wiley is in a good position to win it as long he continues to have the funds necessary to communicate with voters for the next six weeks. The Current Vote Despite being outspent on television by a two-to-one margin, Wiley has a 16-point lead over Anderson (53% Wiley / 37% Anderson / 10% undecided). Wiley gained two-points since the July benchmark poll while Anderson gained four points (51% Wiley / 33% Anderson / 16% undecided).

As long as he can continue to communicate, Wileys vote total should continue to grow between now and the election as 55% of undecided voters describe themselves as Democrats compared to 34% who describe themselves as Republicans.

The Political Environment Democrats have a 16-point advantage on the generic ballot (52% Democratic / 36% Republican / 13% persuadable). Undecided voters prefer a Democratic candidate on the generic ballot by 11 points (38% Democratic / 27% Republican / 35% persuadable), giving Wiley a better chance at winning their support than Anderson. The top of the ticket should also give Wiley a boost as President Obama receives a 60% favorable / 38% unfavorable rating, while Romney has a 36% favorable / 59% unfavorable rating. President Obama continues to lead Romney by over 20 points (57% Obama / 34% Romney / 9% undecided). This is virtually unchanged since July when President Obama led by 26 points (58% Obama / 32% Romney / 10% undecided).

Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies conducted N=400 interviews with likely 2012 general election voters in Pennsylvanias 49th State Senate District. Interviews were conducted September 19-22, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +4.9% with a 95% confidence level.