PREDICTING HUMAN BEHAVIOR

Introduction Understanding the factors that underlie human behavior has been a constant area of interest in the fields of psychology and management. Even before the emergence of these formal social sciences, our early ancestors have already formulated various ideas to account for the differences in peoples behavior, as well as ideas on how to encourage specific behavior from people. However, many of these ideas are simplistic or outright inaccurate, such as a belief in a specific races inherent goodness or evil, the inheritance of character flaws, or even mental aberration. It was only when the fields of psychology and management came about that greater understanding of human behavior was promoted.

Theories on Why People Behave Differently Sigmud Freud was the first to propound that an individuals personality is the product of psychosexual experiences during his childhood, specifically involving the interplay of his id, libido and ego. When these psychosexual urges are satisfied, then a child will develop a healthy personality. However, if these urges are frustrated, then the childs personality will be flawed. Although his theory was controversial, it opened the door for other theories on personality. Basically, what these psychologists believe is that an individuals personality is the product of the sum total of his experiences, and it is his personality that influences his

behavior. Thus, differences in peoples behavior are simply the result of their different experiences and personalities (Kondalkar, 2007). A separate school of psychology emerged called Behaviorism, which believes that an individual learns through his interactions with the environment and rejects the influence man behavior. Thus, to behaviorists, it is the environment that shapes human behavior. The best known example of this school of thinking is Ivan Pavlovs classical conditioning, which states that individuals learn to associate specific environmental stimuli to specific physiological and psychological responses. For example, a person who was conditioned to work in great heights will behave differently from one who was not conditioned similarly. Thus, people behave differently because they were conditioned in different ways (Cunliffe, 2008). The human relations or behavioural movement marked the first time that management thinkers focused their attention on studying the attitudes and behavior of employees and their influence on organizational performance. Various human relations writers, such as Abraham Maslow, Douglas McGregor and Frederick Herzberg, demonstrated that employees have complex individual needs that motivate them in various ways, while more modern writers such as Geert Hofstede and Chris Argyris showed that external factors also exert profound influence peoples attitudes and behavior (Crainer, 1998). All in all, their studies have helped to shed light on why people behave differently in similar situations and contributed in increasing the ability of managers to predict their behavior to a significant extent.

Among the human relations writers, Abraham Maslows hierarchy of needs provides the best explanation for why people behave differently. According to Maslow, individuals have a hierarchy of ascending needs that compel them to behave in ways that would satisfy the lowest of these needs first. These needs are: physiological needs, safety needs, need for love of social belonging, need for self-esteem, and need for self-actualization (Crainer, 1998). Maslow stated that a person can only be motivated when his most basic needs are first satisfied. When these basic needs have been satisfied, then further efforts to motivate him would need to be focused on the next needs on the hierarchy. This means that trying to motivate a person based on needs that have already been satisfied would no longer be as effective. Since different people will tend to be at different levels in their respective hierarchy of needs at any given point in time, the same motivator will elicit varying degrees of effectiveness among these people (Cunliffe, 2008). This explains why the implementation of a financial incentive will arouse different responses from a group of employees. Another implication of the hierarchy of needs is that the same persons behavior will tend to change based on his changing needs (Crainer, 1998). For example, a person who previously sought financial security when he was part of the rank-and-file may seek power and prestige when he becomes a manager. Geert Hofstede provided the best explanation for why people from different cultures behave differently. According to Hofstede (1991), people of different nationalities have deeply rooted social differences in terms of masculinity/femininity, uncertainty avoidance, individualism /collectivism, and power distance. These socio-cultural differences exert a strong influence on ones acceptance of authority, conformance or individualism, aversion to uncertainty or risk-taking behavior, gender assertiveness and competitiveness, and long-

term orientation. Thus, an American is more naturally individualistic and assertive compared to a Chinese.

Predictability of Human Behavior The theories and concepts discussed previously are just some of the explanations given as to why people behave differently in similar situations. The fact that there are so many of these theories indicate that human behavior is simply too complex to predict with great accuracy on a consistent basis (Rothwell and Sullivan, 2005). However, it does not necessarily mean that it is impossible to predict human behavior, especially in the shortterm. For example, analyzing a persons needs could provide a manager with useful insights into what will motivate the person more effectively, which is in line with Maslows theory. It is also far easier to predict an immediate behavioural response to a stimuli rather than a behavior in the long term. This is because other unforeseen variables may come into play as time goes by, which would influence and modify the behavior (Kondalkar, 2007). For example, if a manager reprimands an erring employee, the shortterm behavior is likely to be the employees effort to avoid similar infractions. However, it is hard to predict whether this behavior will be sustained over a period of time. It is also helpful for managers to have a keen understanding of the possible influence of an employees personality and socio-cultural background and the specific situation (Rothwell and Sullivan, 2005). Will a person who has a weak personality make for a good manager? Would a Japanese expatriate manager be able to effectively handle the workers at a Midwest manufacturing plant, and how will the workers react to having him as a manager?

Thus, the accuracy of predicting human behavior depends on the time frame, the persons needs, personality and cultural background, and the specific situation itself.

How Organizational Behavior can Help in Predicting Human Behavior Mullins (2005, p.52) defines Organisational Behavior as the study of the behaviour of people within an organisational setting. It involves the understanding, prediction and control of human behaviour, the behaviour of individuals, or sections or groups of people, within the organisation. As such, organizational behavior attempts to understand how human behavior, specifically in the workplace, interacts with the organizations formal structure, the work that employees and managers need to perform, the technologies and methods that they employ, the management policies and practices, and the external environment of the organization. In doing so, organizational behavior harnesses many of the theories and concepts that were mentioned earlier in order to create a useful framework by which managers can predict to a reasonable extent how people will behave under different situation.

References: Crainer, S., 1998. Key Management Ideas: Thinkers that Changed the Management World (3rd ed.). London, UK: Financial Times Prentice Hall. Cunliffe, Anne L., 2008. Organisation Theory. London: Sage Publications. Hofstede, G., 1991. Culture and organisations: Software of the mind. London, UK: McGraw-Hill. Kondalkar, V.G., 2007. Organisational Behaviour. New Delhi: New Age International Ltd. Mullins, Laurie J., 2005, Management and Organisational Behaviour. 7th ed. Essex: Financial Times. Rothwell, William, J. & Sullivan, Roland, eds. 2005. Practicing Organisation Development: A Guide for Consultants. 2nd ed. San Francisco: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.