TO: FROM: SUBJECT: DATE:

CHRIS GIBSON FOR CONGRESS PATRICK LANNE PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES RECENT POLLING DATA OCTOBER 11, 2012

As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a poll of 400 likely voters in New Yorks 19th Congressional District. The party registration breakdown of the poll mirrors the districts actual registration: 34% Republican and 31% Democrat with the remainder either unaffiliated or registered in other parties. Each county is represented based on its proportion of actual registration. The survey was conducted on October 9-10, 2012 and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.9%. The purpose of this memo is to review the key findings of the poll. KEY FINDINGS 1. Chris Gibson has a double-digit lead. Congressman Gibson beats his Democratic challenger, Julian Schreibman, by eleven points, 50-39%. Gibsons lead is similar to a poll released by the NRCC Independent Expenditure unit (47%-39%) yesterday. 2. Romney has a slim lead. Romney has a one-point lead in the Presidential race, 46%-45%.

The Bottom Line After weeks of false attacks by Julian Schreibman, Congressman Chris Gibson still has a strong lead over his Democratic challenger.