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Contents
Country conditions Governance issues Political Attitudes and Choices ICC issues
Methodology
Survey Methodology
10th 16th November 2012 2,000 respondents Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Province Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western TOTAL
Sample Frame statistics (September 2012) 262 176 298 210 96 263 493 202 2000
% 13 9 15 10 5 13 25 10 100
Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) 2,548,038 1,711,549 2,907,293 2,042,770 929,158 2,547,980 4,795,482 1,980,090 19,462,360
13 9 15 10 5 13 25 10 100
Regular polling:
Ipsos Synovate commitment is that we will continue providing opinion poll results every 4 6 weeks in the run up to the election . Last poll was released on 2nd October 2012
Region
Education level
Gender
Female Male
51% 49%
18 - 24
Age
25 - 34 35 - 44 45+
Setting
Urban Rural
37% 63%
84%
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Country Conditions
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In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya currently? (By Total)
In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya currently? (Top 4 mentions by region)
During the last five years, have the general economic conditions for you and your family? (By Total)
During the last five years, have the general economic conditions for you and your family.? (By total, setting and region)
What is the most common criminal activity in your local area? (By Total)
Governance Issues
17
Has the new constitution changed life for you in any way? (By Total)
No; 56%
Not sure; 5%
Yes; 39%
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
18
What is the main change that you have experienced or noticed, whether good or bad? (By those who said YES)
More freedom/democracy More public attention to gender/women Improved judiciary More accountability Economic improvement Less corruption More efficient/faster service from government departments Better police performance More poverty/higher costs of government
Base: Those who indicated any change (n =775)
19
What is the main change that you have experienced or noticed, whether good or bad? (Top 3 mentions by those who said YES: by region and gender)
More freedom/democracy 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
30% 14% 11% 32% 21% 10% 20% 13% 56%
Improved judiciary
46% 36% 31% 12% 11% 0% 28% 27% 18% 11% 16% 19% 8% 8% 5% 40% 35% 25% 26% 16% 5%
9% 5%
Which senior cabinet minister (together with 5 other people died in a helicopter crash a few moths ago?
94%
How confident are you that the real truth as to what caused the accident will ever be discovered and revealed? ?
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80%
60%
40%
20%
How important is the outcome of the next election to you personally?(By Total)
78%
61%
No; 84%
Yes, 16%
One political rally
33% 7%
Two to three political rallies More than 3 political rallies
7%
Peter Kenneth
4%
Eugene Wamalwa
3%
Martha Karua
7%
Others
Raila Odinga
Uhuru Kenyatta
William Ruto
Kalonzo Musyoka
Musalia Mudavadi
Base = 16%; Those indicating that they have attended a political rally in the last 3 months (n=312)
25
Which political party do you feel closest to, if any? (By Total)
32%
22% 18%
10% 6% 3%
ODM TNA URP Wiper Democratic Party UDF
2%
PNU
1%
KANU
1%
Narc Kenya
2%
Kenya National Congress
3%
Others None
TNA
URP
UDF
None
19% 13% 1% 7% 4%
Narc Kenya ODM Kenya / Wiper Democratic Party TNA URP Others
None
50%
48% 43% 41% 38% 36% 33% 33% 31% 27% 28% 41% 34% 35% 32% 27% 22% 17% 16% 13% 9% 3% 2% 0 4% 3% 2% 0 5% 3% 0 5% 4% 2% 0 10% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% 6% 4% 2% 0% 18% 15% 10% 6% 3% 2% 1% 32%
40%
30%
20%
22% 21%
22% 21%
21% 17%
18%
21% 14%
23% 20%
22%
10%
7%
0%
8% 2% 1% 0 0
1% 0
7% 4% 1% 0
2% 1% 0
7% 4% 3% 0
84% 72%
85%
82%
Apr 2012
Base: All Respondents
Jul 2012
Sept 2012
Nov 2012
29
Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate? (By Total)
50%
33%
30%
30%
26%
9% 5%
20%
6%
10%
9%
8%
7%
11%
1% 3% 1% 1% 1%
4%
0%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate? (By Region)
Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley North Eastern Eastern Central Western 41% 51% 76% 23% 47% 10% 6% 40% 23% 9% 6% 24% 29% 32% 73% 2% 3% 2% 0% 33% 7% 2% 0% 0%
Peter Kenneth 9% 2% 3% 3% 0% 1% 3% 1%
Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate? - Time Series
100%
Others
60%
48% 40% 36% 36% 42% 38% 32% 34% 24% 20% 14% 8% 7% 6% 4% 0% Mar 2010 11% 8% 5% 1% 0% Jul 2010 10% 7% 2% 1% 0% Oct 2010 14% 11% 5% 4% 2% 1% 0% Dec 2010 8% 6% 3% 1% 0% Mar 2011 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% Jul 2011 10% 5% 2% 1% 0% Oct 2011 10% 4% 2% 1% 0% Dec 2011 April 2012 8% 5% 1% 0% 21% 18% 12% 7% 4% 1% Jul 2012 9% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% Sept 2012 Nov 2012 32% 22% 22% 34% 33% 30% 26% 23% 36% 33%
0%
-20%
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Of all the possible presidential candidates, which one would make you most unhappy if she or he won the election? (By Total)
50%
40%
31%
30%
30% 21%
20%
10%
8% 5% 3% 2%
0%
If a second round run-off election is necessary and your preferred candidate is not one of the two candidates taking part off, how likely are you to vote? (By Total)
Certain or very likely, 58%
Undecided, 8% No Response, 4%
60%
49% 46% 42% 46% 42% 41% 37% 31% 28% 23% 22% 44% 49%
50%
47%
47%
40%
36%
30%
29% 27%
29%
21%
20%
17% 12%
17%
16%
10%
0%
Which candidate would you prefer to vote for if your preferred candidate is not in the run-off? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)
Scenario: Raila not in the run-off
Musalia Mudavadi Peter Kenneth Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Kalonzo Musyoka
Musalia Mudavadi
Which candidate would you prefer to vote for if your preferred candidate is not in the run-off? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)
Scenario: Ruto Not in the run-off Uhuru Kenyatta Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga Eugene Wamalwa Kalonzo Musyoka 58% 12% 8% 5% 5%
Scenario: Kalonzo not in the run-off Uhuru Kenyatta Raila Odinga 23% 15% 13% 5% 5%
46% 25% 22% 21% 16% 16% 15% 13% 10% 7% 5% 5% 14% 4%
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ICC Issues
39
What four individuals have been named by the ICC to stand trial in The Hague for the post-election violence next year? (By Total - % who could identify each defendant)
Uhuru Kenyatta
89%
William Ruto
85%
Joshua Sang
52%
Francis Muthaura
45%
DK/None/NR
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
7%
40
What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - to contest the next elections? (By Total)
41%
They should contest if they want, but should resign from whatever seats if found guilty by the ICC trials
39%
20%
What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - to contest the next elections? (By Region)
They should not contest They should contest if they want, but should resign from whatever seats if found guilty by the iCC trials They should contest and then ignore The Hague/ICC trials
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 51% 50% 41% 40% 30% 20% 20% 11% 10% 0% Total Nairobi Coast Nyanza Rift Valley 3% North Eastern Eastern Central 15% 39% 37% 52% 48% 36% 27% 21% 15% 13% 14% 2% Western 42 27% 68% 75%
What is your view regarding the intention of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto - who are scheduled for trial by the ICC next year - to contest the next elections? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)
They should not contest They should contest if they want, but should resign from whatever seats if found guilty by the iCC trials They should contest and then ignore The Hague/ICC trials 75% 62% 65% 59% 54% 38% 32% 27% 17% 4%
Kalonzo Musyoka Supporters
37%
7%
Musalia Mudavadi Supporters
8%
8%
4%
William Ruto Supporters
Whether or not you support the ICC process, how certain are you that Uhuru and Ruto will actually go to the Hague for trial? (By Total)
Very certain they will not go, 17% Very certain they will go, 54%
Uncertain, 25%
No Response, 1%
RTA, 2%
Whether or not you support the ICC process, how certain are you that Uhuru and Ruto will actually go to the Hague for trial? (By supporters of particular presidential candidates)
Very certain they will go Very certain they will not go Uncertain NR / RTA
64% 55%
65% 54%
41% 30% 25% 20% 11% 6% 10% 6% 2% Kalonzo Musyoka Supporters Musalia Mudavadi Supporters Raila Odinga Supporters 19% 13% 4% Uhuru Kenyatta Supporters 4% William Ruto Supporters
28%
25% 18%
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Questions? Comments?
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For further information contact: Dr. Tom Wolf 0733 637 023 twolf@wananchi.com Margaret Ireri Managing Director Margaret.ireri@ipsos.com
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