Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OCTOBER8,2012
Methodology
500interviewsconductedbetweenOctober4th and7th at
approximately15minutesinlength. Registered,likelyvotersintheupcomingNewYork26th senate districtelection 3samplesbypartyregistration
Democrats 36% Independents/Blanks 31%(oversamplen=250interviews) Republicans 32%
4.9%marginoferror
GenericStateSenateTrial Heat
AllVoters AlbanyMM AlbanyCounty GreeneCounty Mont/SchenCounty UlsterCounty Men Women UnderAge50 Age5064 Age65+ Democrats Independents Republicans IndependentMen IndependentWomen
41% 34% 46% 34% 26% 53% 35% 45% 43% 41% 37% 77% 30% 10% 21% 37% 13%
40% 46% 42% 49% 47% 28% 45% 35% 39% 36% 45%
Democrat
Republican
GeorgeAmedore Favorability
AllVoters AlbanyCounty GreeneCounty Mont/SchenCounty UlsterCounty MenUnder50 Men50+ WomenUnder50 Women50+ Democrats Independents Republicans IndependentsUnder50 Independents50+ GovtEmployee LaborHH
47% 56% 39% 75% 23% 58% 53% 32% 45% 36% 45% 63% 35% 51% 49% 48% Favorable
13% 11% 15% 16% 11% 8% 13% 15% 15% 18% 11% 9% 9% 12% 18% 16% Unfavorable
StateSenateTrialHeat
ALL VOTERS AlbanyMM AlbanyCounty GreeneCounty Mont/ Schen County UlsterCounty Men Women MenUnder50 Men50+ WomenUnder50 Women50+ Tkaczyk 37% 29 36 40 19 50 32 41 34 31 44 39 Amedore 50% 60 54 50 70 32 55 46 53 57 43 47 Undecided 13% 11 10 11 11 18 13 14 13 12 13 14
StateSenateTrialHeatContinued
ALL VOTERS NonCollege Men CollegeMen NonCollegeWomen College Women Democrats Independents Independent Men Independent Women Independents Under50 IndependentsOver50 Republicans GovernmentEmployee LaborHousehold Tkaczyk 37% 23 43 35 50 66 30 27 32 28 30 10 37 41 Amedore 50% 61 48 53 36 23 54 58 50 51 56 77 52 49 Undecided 13% 16 9 12 14 11 17 15 18 21 14 13 11 10
CampaignFinanceReformProposal
PartlyFavor 32% Partly Oppose 14% Strongly Oppose 9% Democrats Independents Republicans
Ind.Over50
PartyIssueAdvantage
(RankedbyDifferential)
Isonyourside
37%
35%
WillworktocleanupAlbany
32%
32%
Willreducetaxburdenonthe middleclass
39%
41%
Istoobeholdentospecial interests
25%
32%
Willworktohelpsmall business
34% Democrat
46% Republican
TrialHeatAfterBios
PositiveMovers
IndependentsUnder 50 Tkaczyk 43% IndependentWomen Amedore 47% WomenUnder50 Mont/SchenCounty NonCollegeWomen NonCollegeMen Notsure/ Refused 8% Other/ Neither 2% LaborHH
Amedore Negatives
Willallowinsurancecostodenycarefor preexistingconditions Votedtobanabortioninallcases, pharmacistsrefusebc Supportsvouchers,wouldtakemoney outofpublicschools Againsttaxincreaseforrich,increasing minimumwage,smbusinessloans Opposesstemcellresearch Votedtokeepgivingtaxbreakstocorps shippingjobsoverseas PartofpaytoplaycultureinAlbany Taken$50kfromoneLIrealestate developer Taken$65kfromrealestate,voted againstsmbusinessloans Supportsfrakking Aluxuryhomedeveloper,votedagainst foreclosuremoratorium
47% 43% 39% 39% 39% 38% 36% 35% 34% 34% 34%
SomewhatLessLikely
14% 13% 19% 17% 17% 19% 15% 15% 21% 17% 16%
NoDifference FALSE
10% 16% 18% 24% 19% 19% 26% 31% 26% 20% 29% 5%
19% 14% 8%
7% 3% 10% 5% 13% 3%
8% 6% 5% 8% 12% 6% 9% 4%
10%
11% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 16% 8%
7% 8% 5%
NotSure
MuchLessLikely
MoreLikely
Q.31Banabortion,allowpharmacists todenyemergencyBC
Q.35Supportsvouchers,cut$45Mfromlocalschools
Q.30Againsttaxincreaseforrich,minwageraise,andsmallbusinessloans
Q28 Votedtokeeptaxbreaksforjoboutsourcers
FinalTrialHeat
ALL VOTERS AlbanyMM AlbanyCounty GreeneCounty Mont/ Schen County UlsterCounty Men Women MenUnder50 Men50+ WomenUnder50 Women50+ Tkaczyk 48% 40 45 44 36 62 43 53 42 44 56 50 Amedore 39% 47 46 45 49 24 44 35 42 45 32 37 ChangetoTkaczyk +22 +24 +17 +9 +38 +20 +22 +23 +19 +25 +23 +21
FinalTrialHeatContinued
ALL VOTERS NonCollege Men CollegeMen NonCollegeWomen College Women Democrats Independents Ind. Men Ind. Women Ind. Under50 Ind.Over50 Republicans Govt Employee LaborHH Tkaczyk 48% 40 46 46 62 78 42 40 44 47 39 20 48 53 Amedore 39% 48 40 41 28 15 40 43 37 32 45 66 40 38 ChangetoTkaczyk +22 +30 +11 +23 +20 +20 +26 +28 +25 +38 +20 +21 +23 +23