Covering the Pentagon

National Press Foundation Paul Miller Washington Reporting Fellowship

Josh Rogin Staff Writer The Cable Foreign Policy December 2012

The spigot of defense spending that opened on 9/11 is closing. - Robert M. Gates, Jan. 10, 2009

This department faces difficult choices among

competing priorities and programs. I believe we must make those choices, - Robert M. Gates, Feb. 10, 2009

The Doomsday Scenario

If the maximum sequestration is triggered, the total cut will rise to about $1 trillion compared with the fiscal year 2012 plan, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Nov. 14, 2010 As a result, we would have to formulate a new security strategy that accepted substantial risk of not meeting our defense needs.

Doctor Strangelove
I will veto any effort to get rid of those automatic spending cuts, President Barack Obama The only way to get rid of those cuts is to get Congress to come together and work on a deal.

DOD Budget 1947-2008

($Billions, 2008$)
Source: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

DoD Budget ($BN)

Cold War Average

Increased Cost of Defense Under Bush Administration

$ 750

050 Disc BA in Billions of Dollars

$ 700 $ 650 $ 600 $ 550 $ 500 $ 450 $ 400 $ 350 $ 300

Cost Risk (CBO) Future War Costs (CBO)

War Supplementals

Bush 09 Policy

Jan 01 Baseline

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Fiscal Year
07/18/2008

War Funding Totals $859 Billion From 2001 Through 2009

Iraq ($653 Billion) Afghanistan and Other ($206 Billion)

33 37

20 22 18 28 76 53 16
2001

134 86 102

149 13 54

18
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bridge

Dollars in Billions

Source: Congressional Research Service 07/17/08

I am committed to restoring a sense

of honesty and accountability to our budget and for the first time, that includes the full cost of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. For seven years, we have been a nation at war. No longer will we hide its price. President Barack Obama, Feb. 24, 2009

Whats at stake this year

Modernization programs including the F-35, shipbuilding, long range strike Force strength, Army endstrength increases, Air Force wings Military entitlesments, healthcare premiums, Tricare for life Nuclear force modernization will be a political football Diplomacy funding is now considered security spending

The Schedule
Early December Pentagon devises FY13 budget plan accounting for $450 in cuts over 10 years, negotiates with services Late December OSD negotiates with OMB and OMB passes back final toplines, lists of cuts are discussed Early February FY13 budget release, Congress starts work on trigger repeal May or June Congress starts work on appropriations bills Summer All action halts in anticipation of election

Air-Sea Battle
Pentagon needs new cash cow to justify huge programs Rise of the Navy and AF after years of Army rule Strategic shift to SE Asia, Australia, India Global force posture changes are long overdue but expensive

10

12

14

0 % of GDP for DOD

Defense Budget as a Function of GDP

19 47 19 51 19 55 19 59 19 63 19 67 19 71 19 75 19 79 19 83 19 87 19 91 19 95 19 99 20 03 20 07

As far as Defense acquisitions is concerned and the Defense budget is concerned . . . were facing a train wreck. - Sen. John McCain Feb. 24, 2009

Military Personnel Pay and Benefits per Troop Indexed to FY1972 Using CPI (Compiled by CRS)
160
MilPers per Troop Index 1972 = 100

140

120

100

80 FY1975 FY1980 FY1985 FY1990 FY1995 FY2000 FY2005

Fiscal Year

Adding 92,000 Active Duty Troops to Army and Marine Corps End-Strength by FY2012
Year by Year End-Strength Projections
FY2007 FY2008 525.4K 186.5K FY2009 532.4K 194.0K FY2010 539.4K 199.0K FY2011 546.4K 202.0K FY2012 FY2013 547.4K 202.0K 547.4K 202.0K

Army ES Marine ES

522.4K 180.4K

Year by Year Cost Projections ($bns)

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY08-13

$ in Billions

$ 11.9

$ 20.5

$ 21.9

$ 18.3

$16.6

$ 13.3 $ 102.5

Note: Army Baseline of 482.4K + 65.0K = 547.4K Marine Corps Baseline of 175.0K + 27.0K = 202.0K
Source: Department of Defense Fact Sheet, February 5, 2008. (Compiled by CRS)

Operating Costs Grow: Total Operation & Maintenance $ per Troop: FY1955-FY2013
120,000

100,000

O&M Per Troop Trend +2.5% Per Year

Constant FY2009 $

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

Fiscal Year

Army Division Equivalents and Budget

($Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008, Center of Military History, Historical Perspective on Force Structure Reductions 1946-1988, Washington, D.C. 1989, Department of Defense Annual Reports, and Department of Defense Appropriations Bill Reports from the House Committee on Appropriations.

Army Division Equivalents 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

46 54 62 70 78 86 94 02 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20

Army Budget ($Billions) 250 200 150 100 50 0

46 54 62 70 78 86 94 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 02

Navy Combat Ships and Budget

($Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008

1200 1000 800 600

250 200 150 100

400 200 0
1946 1954 1962 1970 1978 1986 1994 2002

50 0
46 54 62 70 78 86 94 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 02

Active Navy Combat Ships

Navy Budget

Air Force Tactical Wings and Budget

(Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)
Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008 and Air Force Historical Research Agency (Maxwell AFB) analysis, Force Structure, United States Army Air Forces and United States Air Force.

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
46 54 62 70 78 86 94 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 02

250 200 150 100 50 0

46 54 62 70 78 86 94 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 02

Active Air Force Tactical Wing Equivalents

Air Force Budget

In the year 2054, the entire defense budget

will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day. - Norman Augustine, Augustines Laws, 1982

The Fiscal 2012 Defense Authorization Act

$662 billion total was trimmed to follow appropriators The process was more of a mess than usual, CR expires Dec. 16. Requires detainees to be handed over to military, even if caught on U.S. soil Indefinite detention ok, even for U.S. citizens Audit by 2014?

Its an incestuous business, whats going on in terms of

defense contractors and the Pentagon and the highest levels of the military.
- Sen. Claire McCaskill

Weve got to get this together

and coordinate this so I know what the hell Im doingWe cant operate this way anymore.
- Rep. John P. Murtha