Communicating Risk

Chris Clarke and Katherine E. Rowan

George Mason University http://communication.gmu.edu

National Press Foundation Webinar

Washington, DC January 2013

What We Will Cover

Best ways for journalists to understand risk Common mistakes and best practices for using narratives, statistics Avoiding he-said, shesaid coverage Factuality vs. advocacy Covering risk is risky

Good News, Bad News

Journalists still matter as sources of risk information about But these days, people have lower opinions about how well journalists meet this responsibility.

the environment
health technological issues

Risk Communication Theories

Public education is the key; journalists are important The public wont understand complexities and uncertainties.and journalists cant explain them

The media sensationalize risk

Looking at number killed, hurt, ill tells the whole story.

The CAUSE Model

Think about why groups respond to risk news differently: Lack of Confidence in sources? Lack of Awareness of danger, of warnings? Lack of Understanding of danger? Lack of Satisfaction with solutions? Lack of Enactment, action?

The U in CAUSE
Why is this risk or hazard hard to understand? Complexities hard to envision: cancer incidence increases with age; why carbon dioxide levels affect temperature; risk of death from flu; risk of homicide vs. suicide.

Especially if evidence is or appears conflicting, uncertain

Need for (and pitfalls of) a balanced approach to reporting

Dixon & Clarke, 2012a, 2012b; Rowan, 1999, 2003

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Media Balance
Balance aims for neutrality [and] requires that reporters present the views of legitimate spokespersons of the conflicting sides in any significant dispute, and provide both sides with roughly equal attention (Entman, 1989)

[Although] thetradition of bringing in opposing sides is an attempt to provide balance and objectivityit is problematic to introduce dissent into an area where science largely agrees, particularly for readers unable to evaluate where theevidence lies (Corbett & Durfee, 2004 p. 142)

False Balance?

Evidence Evidence

Coverage

Coverage

How Falsely Balanced Stories Affect Audiences

Dixon & Clarke, 2012a Perceived Certainty Self Perception of Divide

Exposure to balanced info

Experts

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Risk Communication Theories

Public education is the key.

The public wont understand complexities and uncertainties.and journalists can explain them

The media sensationalize risk

Looking at number killed, hurt, ill tells the whole story.

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Risk Communication Challenges

Risk = uncertain danger; complexity = tough to communicate! Many factors shape the ways we view risk. We perceive immediate risks differently than we do slow-onset, gradually worsening hazards.

Telling a story with identified victims.

While not losing the big picture (i.e. statistics)
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Processing Immediate Risk

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Message Framing
Selecting and highlighting some facets of events or issues, and [promoting] a particular interpretation, evaluation, and/or solution. Episodic Concrete examples, pictures; The individual Thematic Trends, themes, statistics; Society Effects: Attribution of causality, responsibility 17 Public opinion

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Example: Framing Health

So what are the solutions?

How can we report risk better?

The CAUSE Model

Think about why groups respond to risk news differently: Lack of Confidence in sources? Lack of Awareness of danger, of warnings? Lack of Understanding of danger? Lack of Satisfaction with solutions? Lack of Enactment, action?

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The S in CAUSE
Research says people are satisfied when

They believe the hazard is SEVERE They believe the hazard affects THEM They believe they CAN OVERCOME the hazard They believe the recommended action will WORK

Witte et al., 2001

What Can/Should Journalists Do?

Hedging your reporting limitations of a particular study 1. Often at the end of an article (Conclusion, Limitations section) 2. May NOT be in the press release 3. May talk about sampling issues; correlation vs. causation; areas of future research 4. Hedging can increase journalist credibility and help people contextualize information (Jensen et al., 2011)

Deepen Understanding, Explain Complexities

Jim Gandy WLTX Columbia, SC

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Deepen Understanding: Key Terms

Say what a word does NOT mean
Radiation does NOT equal danger. Danger depends on the type and amount of radiation. Strong familial risk is NOT the same as the risk connected to a hereditary syndrome

Say what it DOES mean

Radiation refers to energy moving through space.

Strong familial risk means more likely to develop breast cancer than those with no family risk but less likely than those with hereditary syndrome
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Key Terms, 2
Give a RANGE of examples, not just one.

People experience radiation from many sources including light bulbs, the sun, radios, x-rays, cosmic rays, and nuclear weapons. The harmfulness of radiation has to do with its type and amount of exposure. When a doctor prescribes an x-ray, the benefit of a clear image to help detect some problem usually outweighs the risk of exposure to x-ray radiation.
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Key Terms, 3
Discuss false examples to clarify a key term.

Eating lots of fiber helps protect you from cancer.

Fiber is plant material that passes undigested, so apples, wheat bran, and salads all have fiber. Meat does not, even tough meat. Dietary fiber is plant material.

Rowan, 1999
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Deepen Understanding: Address Lay Theories

State the lay theory and acknowledge its apparent reasonableness

It seems reasonable to assume that if there are no people in your family who have cancer, your chances of getting cancer are low.

Create dissatisfaction with the lay theory

Family history is one source of cancer risk, but there are other sources. Lifestyle factors like obesity and smoking are connected to cancer.

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Deepen Understanding: Address Lay Theories

Explain the orthodox science

Cancer is often prevented if caught early. Since early cancers may not cause symptoms, and since even people with no family history of cancer are at risk, have frequent check ups so problems can be caught and treated.

Rowan, 1999, 2000, 2003

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What Can/Should Journalists Do?

Balance with context Whether/how a particular study reflects or challenges a larger body of research. How?

If interviewing a researcher, ask for a few citations of other articles that have explored the topic.
Cover opposing claims, but also focus on where the evidence (seems to) lie.

Deepen Understanding: Context

Detroit Free Press
About 100 children die of flu each year (Mike Stobbe, AP) What does that mean? Total number of deaths from flu for all ages Total number of children in United States = 74 million Absolute Risk = 1 in 740,000 Most deaths among those not vaccinated

Boston Globe
The gun toll were ignoring: Suicide (Leon Neyfakh) What does that mean? In 2010, number of gun deaths by suicide outnumbered homicides: 19,392 suicide 11,078 homicides Pattern the same since 1920.

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What Can/Should Journalists Do?

Balance with context

Use narrative, but dont forget statistics!

Frequencies over probabilities

Mobilize the audience where to go for more information

Deepen Understanding: Visuals

Try presenting risk as frequencies rather than as probabilities
Sources: Danziger, 2000; also Schwartz et al., 1999

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The E in CAUSE
E stand for enactment

Make action easy and simple Cut 100 calories a day, not lose 10 pounds. Reporters: Report what authorities are doing to address the hazard
Routinize the solution, embed the behavior Make reducing the debt automatic. Make increasing coastal wetlands annual requirement.

Booth-Butterfield, 2003.

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Motivating Enactment Examples

Reporters can include how I protect myself information Mention pre-packaged survival kits at stores Where to go to find more information Gain-framed messages most effective for prevention behavior Using sun screen keeps your skin healthy. Loss-framed messages most effective for detection behavior By not getting a mammogram, you are failing to take advantage of the best way for detecting breast cancer.

Banks, 1995; Salovey, 2002

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In Summary
Risk stories about uncertain danger demand thoroughness.

Context and limitations Mobilizing the audience Use CAUSE to identify likely tensions.
Role of balance; stories vs. statistics Read top risk reporters work: Leon Neyfakh, Andrew Revkin, Amanda Ripley.

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Thanks!

Katherine Rowan (krowan@gmu.edu)

Chris Clarke (cclark27@gmu.edu)

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References Cited in this Webinar Banks, S., et al. (1995). The effects of message framing on mammography utilization. Health Psychology, 14, 178-184. Booth-Butterfield, M. (2003). Embedded health behaviors from adolescence to adulthood. Health Communication, 15, 171-184. Danziger, K. (2000). How are breast and ovarian cancer inherited? From Genetic Health, www.genetichealth.com Dixon, G., & Clarke, C. (In press). Heightening uncertainty around certain science: Media coverage, false balance, and the autism-vaccine controversy. Science Communication. Dixon, G., & Clarke, C. (In press). The effect of falsely balanced media representations of the autism-vaccine controversy on vaccine safety perceptions and behavior. Health Education & Behavior. Jensen, J.D., et al. (2011). Including limitations in news coverage of cancer research: Effects of news hedging on fatalism, medical skepticism, patient trust, and backlash. Journal of Health Communication, 16, 486-503.

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References Cited in this Webinar Rowan, K. E. (1999). Effective explanation of uncertain and complex science. In S. Friedman, S. Dunwoody, & C. L. Rogers (Eds.), Communicating New and Uncertain Science (pp. 201-223). Mahwah, NJ. Erlbaum.

Rowan, K. E. (2000). Mass media explanations of illness. In B. Whaley (Ed.), Explaining illness. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
Rowan, K. E. (2003). Informing and explaining skills: Theory and research on informative communication. In J. O. Greene & B. R. Burleson (Eds.), The Handbook of Communication and Social Interaction Skills. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. Salovey, P. et al. (2002). Message framing in the prevention and early detection of disease. In J. Dillard & M. Pfau (Eds.), The persuasion handbook. Thousand Oaks, CA. Schwartz, L. M., Woloshin, S., & Welch, H. G. (1999). Risk communication in clinical practice. Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, No. 25, 124-133 Witte, K. et al. (2001). Effective health risk messages: A step-by-step guide. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage

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CAUSE Model, Risk Communication, Science Communication Rowan, K. E. (1999). Effective explanation of uncertain and complex science. In S. Friedman, S. Dunwoody, & C. L. Rogers (Eds.), Communicating New and Uncertain Science (pp. 201-223). Mahwah, NJ. Erlbaum. Rowan, K. E. (2003). Informing and explaining skills: Theory and research on informative communication. In J. O. Greene & B. R. Burleson (Eds.), The Handbook of Communication and Social Interaction Skills. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. Rowan, K. E. et al. (2003). The CAUSE model, Health Communication, 15, 241-254. Rowan, K. E., et al. (2009). Risk communication education for local emergency managers. In R. Heath & D. OHair (Eds.), Handbook of Risk and Crisis Communication. NY: Taylor & Francis.

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Risk Communication and Climate Change Akerlof, K. L., Rowan, K. E., Fitzgerald, D., & Cedeno, A. Y. (2012). Communicating climate projections in U. S. media: Politicization of model uncertainty. Nature Climate Change, 2, 648-654. Ding, D., Maibach, E.W., Zhao, X., Roser-Renouf, C., & Leiserowitz, A. (2011). Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions about scientific agreement. Nature Climate Change, 1, 462-466. Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University. www.climatechange.org. Director: Dr. Edward Maibach. Maibach, E. W., Roser-Renouf, C., & Leiserowitz, A. (2008). Communication and marketing as climate changeIntervention assets. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35, 488-500. Myers, T.A. et al. (2012). A public health frame arouses hopeful emotions about climate change. Climatic Change, 113, 105-112. Nisbet, M.C. (2009). Communicating Climate Change: Why Frames Matter to Public Engagement. Environment, 51, 514-518. Weber, E. U. (2007). Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: Why global warming does not scare us yet. Climate Change, 77, 103-120.

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Communication and Health Psychology Bandura, A. (2005). Health promotion by social cognitive means. Health, Education, and Behavior, 31, 143-164. Heath, C., & Heath, D. (2007). Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die. New York: Random House. Witte, K., et al. (2001). Effective Health Risk Messages. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Public Relations; Listening, Deliberating with Publics about Priorities, Preparedness Besley, J. & McComas, K. (2005). Framing justice. Communication Theory, 15, 414436. Botan, C. (2006). Grand strategy, strategy and tactics in public relations. In C. Botan & V. Hazleton (Eds.), Public Relations Theory II. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. McComas, K. A., Arvai, J., & Besley, J. C. (2009). Linking public perception and decision making through risk communication. In R. Heath & D. OHair (Eds.), Handbook of Risk and Crisis Communication. New York: Routledge.

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Risk Communication: Approaches and Overviews Finucane, M. L. Slovic, P., Mertz, C. K., Flynn, J., & Satterfield, T. A. (2000). Gender, race, and perceived risk: The white male effect. Health, Risk & Society, 2, 159-172. Pidgeon, N., Kasperson, R. E., & P. Slovic (Eds.), The Social Amplification of Risk. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge. Ripley, A. (2008). The Unthinkable. New York: Crown. Rowan, K. E. (2010), Risk, an overview. In S. H. Priest (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Science and Technology Communication. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Sandman, P. (1993). Responding to Community Outrage. Fairfax, VA: American Industrial Hygiene Association. Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2004). Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: Some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality. Risk Analysis, 24, 311-322

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