Issue 89

Copyright 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

CONTENTS
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6.9m Population by 2030 - Good or Bad for Property?

FROM THE

EDITOR

Welcome to the 89th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Im glad to announce that the 2012Q4 URA data has been updated for PropertyMarketInsights.com members. >> Click here to find out more << Hope you like it! Mr. Propwise

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Property Buying Tip #3: Credit Record

Singapore Property News This Week

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Resale Property Transactions

(January 16 January 22)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89

6.9m Population by 2030 - Good or Bad for Property?

By Mr. Propwise There's been so much talk (and hype) about the Government's recently released Population White Paper and Land Use Plan to support up to a 6.9 million population in 2030, but I think at the end of the day most people are still confused about one key question - is the long term growth plan for Singapore's population and the related land use plans good or bad for property prices? A quick recap of the population growth plan Singapore had 3.29 million citizens and 0.53 million Permanent Residents (PRs) as at June 2012,
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 which together make up the resident population. We also had a non-resident population (including domestic workers, foreign talent, students etc) of 1.49 million, giving a total population of 5.31 million. Singapores total population in 2020 is projected to be between 5.8 and 6 million, while by 2030, the total population could range between 6.5 and 6.9 million. Singapore needs immigrants to grow, but... Government will have to grant around 30,000 PRs each year, maintaining the PR population to between 0.5 and 0.6 million as a potential pool that will to convert to new citizens. But due mainly to political pressures, the Government has reduced the number of PRs granted, from a high of 79,000 new PRs in 2008 to about 30,000 each year currently. Going forward, this pace will be maintained to keep the total PR population stable. In other words, immigration will not be a big driver of the property market anymore. Population growth to slow over the next two decades

Due to our extremely low birth rates (as measured by the Total Fertility Rate), Singaporeans will age rapidly and the number of citizens will decline from 2025 if there is no immigration.
To prevent this from happening, Singapore needs to bring in 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens each year. And in order to do that, the
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The bottomline is that total population growth will slow from the annualized rate of 2.5% from 2000 to 2010, to 1.3% to 1.6% from 2010 to 2020,
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 and further slow to 1.1% to 1.4% from 2020 to 2030. This deceleration of the growth rate is clearly not supportive of the future demand growth for residential property. But to figure out the impact on prices, we'll have to take a look at the other side of the equation - the supply of property. Housing supply to be ramped up The huge number of 700,000 new homes that could be built by 2030 has been thrown around a lot - what does it actually mean? If we look at the current total stock of housing in Singapore, this comprises around 1.2 million units, of which 0.9 million are HDB flats. An additional 700,000 units is a 58% increase in the total stock, whereas the population increase from 5.31 million to 6.9 million (the upper end of the 2030 range) is a
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30% increase. In other words, additional new supply is potentially going to be growing twice as fast as population growth - not a good sign for the market. Of these 700,000 new homes, 90,000 private units (including Executive Condominiums) and 110,000 public units will be completed by 2016. This means that in the next three years, the total stock of housing will increase by 17%, while the population will likely grow by 5% or less over the same time period. Suffice to say, this "flood" of new supply will pose a threat to property prices. Also due to political pressure, the Government will ramp up the Build-to-Order (BTO) supply of public housing from 8,800 units in 2009 to 16,000 units in 2010, 25,000 units in 2011 and 27,000 units in 2012. These are not small numbers - the total number of units launched in 2011 and 2012 is larger
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 than the number of existing units in the whole of Ang Mo Kio. On top of this, HDB will launch at least 20,000 BTO units in 2013. could be some area-specific opportunities from the expansion of the rail network, opening up of new growth corridors, and decentralization of the business and commercial districts. The Golden Years are over I'll put it bluntly - the record home sales we've seen in recent years are clearly not sustainable. They are the result of a confluence of rapid non-citizen population growth and sustained low interest rates post the Global Financial Crisis. Going forward, immigration will be controlled and will not be a driver of home sales. Total population growth will slow and will grow at much slower rate than housing supply. There is a large amount of housing supply coming up in the next three years. Interest rates will not stay low forever. Do you really need me to join the dots?
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Changes to the land use plan

The 6.5 to 6.9 million population by 2030 and 700,000 new housing units will require 76,600 hectares (ha) of land, an increase from the current supply of 71,000 ha. This increased supply of land will come from reclaiming more land, using up the land reserve, intensifying land use, and converting some old industrial areas and golf courses for residential use. The rail network will be expanded significantly, and there will also be the development of new towns and estates, such as in Bidadari, Tampines North and Tengah. Thus while the big picture in terms of housing demand and supply do not look good, there
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89

Property Buying Tip #3: Credit Record

(Reference: www.creditbureau.com.sg) Maintaining a good personal credit record is important especially when you are applying for a housing loan. This includes timely payment of your mortgage loan, credit card debt, cash overdraft, car loan and so on. Please remember to do the repayment on time or at least cover the minimum payment fees on or before the due date. If you do not repay your loan on time regularly, the poor credit rating will be reflected in the CBS database (Credit Bureau Singapore Pte Ltd, Singapores consumer credit rating agency). Your housing loan application may not be granted if there is a concern on your credit worthiness, resulting in you not being able to buy the property you wanted. By Eileen Tan and Ui Wei Teck, property investors and authors of Enjoying Mid-Life Without Crisis. Get dozens more tips in their new book.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89

Singapore Property This Week

Residential
NUS SPRI: Prices of completed condos slipped 0.3% in December In December, the NUSs Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) series reflected a 1.3% fall in prices in the Central Region sub-index (excluding small units) in December, a 0.5% increase in the NonCentral Region, and no change in prices of small units (up to 506 sq ft) islandwide. The overall index fell by 0.3% in December, compared to a 1.7% increase in November. In the whole of 2012, the sub-index for the Non-Central Region saw the highest increase of 8.8%, followed by the small unit sub-index, which saw a 5.7% increase and the Central Region sub-index, which fell by 1.2%. The overall SRPI increased by 4%. Looking ahead, the small unit sub-index may increase in January 2013 given the lowered LTV limit for individuals taking their second or subsequent housing loans which would result in a smaller budget. Prices are generally expected to fall as a result of an increase in supply (more than 16,000 units), though not by much given the low interest rates. (Source: Business Times)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 700,000 more homes needed by 2030 for growing population To support the population of 6.9 million expected by 2030, 700,000 more homes are needed by then as a buffer. Of these 700,000, about 200,000 are already under construction. The rest will mostly be in new towns such as Tengah, Tampines North and Bidadari. The figure translates into about 39,000 units a year, which is similar to the current rate. Building a buffer stock also helps to control prices. However, there is risk of under-building or over-building. Overbuilding can lead to extra costs to taxpayers as the homes are left unoccupied when the building value depreciates with the age of the building and the shorter lease. Another concern would be having smaller home sizes and lower quality of life. (Source: Business Times)
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99-year Lakeside condo site draws 12 bids The site located 450 m away from the Lakeside MRT station drew a total of 12 bids, with the top bid of $651.33 psf ppr from MCL Land. It is bounded by Jurong West Street 41 and Boon Lay Way and offers unobstructed views of Jurong Lake. The expected breakeven price and average selling price are $1,050 psf and $1,300 psf respectively. The high bids and the high number of bids reflect an optimism in the residential market despite the latest cooling measures. (Source: Business Times) 3,346 BTO flats launched in both mature and non-mature estates

HDB has launched 3,346 BTO flats for balloting. In the non-mature estates, there will be Keat Hong Colours at Choa Chu Kang Avenue 7 with 968 three to five-room flats
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 ($170,000 - $388,000). In the mature estates, there will be Kebun Baru Court at Ang Mo Kio Street 21 with 283 four- and five-room flats ($380,000 - $575,000), Whampoa Dew at Lorong Limau with 156 studio apartments ($105,000 0 $154,000) and 249 four-room flats ($385,000 - $483,000) and Tampines GreenForest at Tampines Avenue 8 with 424 three-room and four-room flats ($191,000 $356,000). All three projects in the mature estates and the Yishun project which offers a view of the Singapore Orchid Country Club golf course and Seletar Reservoir are expected to be oversubscribed given their locations. The Parenthood Priority Scheme which gives priority (30% of the flats to be allocated) to first-time applicants who are married with children is applicable for this launch. The Multi-Generational Priority Scheme will also apply for the Whampoa Dew project. In addition, elderly flat owners living
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in the area will have doubled balloting chances for studio apartments at Whampoa Dew. Applications will close on Feb 4. (Source: Business Times) Questioning the plan for 700,000 new homes by 2030

As part of the plan to build 700,000 new housing units by 2030, more homes will be built in the central region, such as in the former Bukit Turf Club, Kallang Riverside, Bukit Brown, and the waterfront area around Keppel, in addition to three new towns, Bidadari (11,000 public and private homes), Tampines North (21,000 homes), and Tengah (55,000 homes). While some felt that the figure may not be sufficient, citing the need to tear down old flats and rebuilt leading to a need for one million new homes, others felt that it was too large since it would mean a
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 compounded average 2.7% growth rate in housing stock compared to a 1.7% per annum population growth (based on the targeted 6.9 million). The ratio of private to total housing stock is also expected to increase from 23% to about 28.5% by 2030 though it may not result in lower prices. $850,000 and $833,000 respectively. The remaining two units left unsold are a 102 sq m (1,097 sq ft) F&B unit on the second floor and a 667 sq m unit on the third floor. (Source: Business Times) Freehold commercial property No 160 Changi up for sale The four-storey building sitting on 18,000 sq ft plot at the corner of Changi Road and Lorong 105 Changi has been put up for sale with vacant possession. The building also consists of 33 carpark lots on two basement levels. The site with a 3.0 permissible GPR is expected to fetch around $62 million and is located about 300 metres away from Eunos MRT station. It can potentially be redeveloped for strata sales for retail or office use or into a hotel subject to approval from the authorities.

(Source: Business Times)

Commercial Alexandra Central units on the resale market At least 19 of the 114 retail units at Alexandra Central sold recently are on the resale market, with prices ranging from $3,720.93 psf for a 24 sq m (258 sq ft) unit to $8,600 psf for a 10 sq m (107.6 sq ft) unit. A 15 sq m (161.5 sq ft) unit on the third floor and an 18 sq m (193.8 sq ft) unit were being sold at

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89 No development charge, ABSD or SSD is applicable for the site, which tender closes on March 8 at 4pm. (Source: Business Times) Units at the Mediplex@SBFCenter to be launched in February in the CBD area. (Source: Business Times)

Rents in suburban malls set to fall

An increase in investor demand for strata retail space is expected as investors are diverted from the industrial and residential sector following the latest cooling measures, leading to a 5-10% increase in price. However, only 46,630 sq ft or 2% of the 1.9 million sq ft of retail space to be completed this year is strata-titled and 80% of this 1.9 million sq ft of space is expected to be located in the suburbs, the bulk of which coming from the Jurong Gateway area. Jem will offer an estimated 573,000 sq ft of GFA in retail space while Westgate will offer another 426,000 sq ft, making up the bulk of the completed retail space in 2013.

The 48 units in Mediplex@SBFCenter on Robinson Road near Tanjong Pagar MRT station will occupy the third to fifth levels of the SBF Center and range from 667 sq ft to 1,292 sq ft in size. They are said to be marketed at $3,800-4,000 psf under a 99year lease to specialties such as dentistry, diet & nutrition, licensed traditional Chinese medicine, physiotherapy and others. These units are expected to be popular given the limited supply of such strata-titled units available for sale as well as the expected demand for medical and healthcare services
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Jan 16 Jan 22
Postal District 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Project Name THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY ICON TWIN REGENCY RIVER PLACE TANGLIN VIEW QUEENS THE ANCHORAGE QUEENS MARINA COLLECTION REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY HARBOURLIGHTS THE PEAK@BALMEG ONE-NORTH RESIDENCES THE PARC CONDOMINIUM CARABELLE PARK WEST PARK WEST KERRISDALE HELIOS RESIDENCES THE METZ THE COSMOPOLITAN RIVERGATE THE TRILLIUM RIVERGATE PARC SOPHIA Area (sqft) 6,297 904 980 1,044 1,152 1,184 1,195 2,282 2,390 2,648 893 990 1,432 1,292 883 1,249 872 1,259 1,668 581 1,324 1,776 1,798 2,077 506 Transacted Price ($) 12,680,000 1,623,000 1,700,000 1,570,000 1,600,000 1,620,000 1,430,000 2,258,000 7,050,500 4,413,277 1,380,000 1,500,000 2,125,000 1,725,000 1,170,000 1,230,000 810,000 1,500,000 6,316,500 1,540,000 2,900,000 3,850,000 3,708,000 4,100,000 970,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 2,014 99 1,795 99 1,736 FH 1,504 99 1,389 99 1,368 99 1,197 FH 989 99 2,950 99 1,667 99 1,545 FH 1,515 FH 1,484 99 1,335 FH 1,326 956 985 99 929 99 1,191 99 3,786 FH 2,649 FH 2,190 FH 2,168 FH 2,063 FH 1,974 FH 1,917 FH Postal District 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Project Name PARC EMILY ESTILO ASPEN HEIGHTS WATERFORD RESIDENCE UE SQUARE OLEANAS RESIDENCE ARDMORE PARK LATITUDE THE LOFT MILL POINT GALLOP GREEN GALLOP GREEN BOTANIC GARDENS VIEW BELMOND GREEN WATERFALL GARDENS ASTRID MEADOWS LEEDON 2 THE LEGACY WING ON LIFE GARDEN VIZ AT HOLLAND CHATEAU LE FAME JERVOIS LODGE SPANISH VILLAGE MARTINA MANSIONS MUTIARA VIEW Area (sqft) 980 614 1,324 1,044 1,292 1,281 2,885 1,927 710 538 5,102 4,338 1,410 1,302 1,830 2,045 764 764 3,305 861 840 1,238 2,045 1,259 1,216 Transacted Price ($) 1,788,888 1,080,000 2,094,000 1,630,000 1,988,888 1,860,000 8,800,000 4,275,720 1,420,000 1,035,000 9,744,820 8,285,580 2,550,000 2,282,000 3,080,000 3,408,000 1,260,000 1,250,000 5,350,000 1,350,000 1,288,000 1,780,000 2,925,000 1,800,000 1,650,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,826 FH 1,760 FH 1,582 999 1,561 999 1,540 929 1,452 FH 3,051 FH 2,219 FH 1,999 99 1,923 999 1,910 FH 1,910 FH 1,808 FH 1,752 FH 1,683 FH 1,666 FH 1,649 FH 1,636 FH 1,619 FH 1,568 FH 1,534 FH 1,438 FH 1,430 FH 1,429 FH 1,357 FH

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89

Postal District 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 Project Name MARTINA MANSIONS PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM NEWTON SUITES THE ARMADALE MULBERRY TREE D' IXORAS SUITES @ TOPAZ D'LOTUS THE ARTE OLEANDER TOWERS OLEANDER TOWERS THE ABERDEEN BLOSSOMS @ WOODLEIGH DAKOTA RESIDENCES KINGSTON TERRACE THE SUNNY SPRING BOUGAINVILLA APARTMENTS ATRIUM RESIDENCES CENTRAL GROVE THE HELICONIA CENTRAL GROVE SIMSVILLE EUNOS GREEN CRYSTAL LODGE EUNOSVILLE AALTO PEBBLE BAY THE COTZ Area (sqft) 2,443 560 1,238 678 635 980 667 570 1,055 893 893 1,302 1,195 1,830 915 1,012 958 1,259 1,216 1,335 1,216 1,528 1,970 1,141 1,776 1,442 1,894 452 Transacted Price ($) 3,100,000 1,200,000 2,400,000 1,150,000 1,010,000 1,510,000 968,000 810,000 1,410,000 1,160,000 1,050,000 1,360,000 1,600,000 2,500,000 1,050,000 1,018,000 950,000 1,228,000 1,170,188 1,280,000 1,150,000 1,438,000 1,800,000 895,000 1,370,000 2,430,000 2,900,000 670,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,269 FH 2,144 FH 1,939 FH 1,696 FH 1,590 FH 1,542 FH 1,450 FH 1,420 FH 1,337 FH 1,298 99 1,175 99 1,044 FH 1,339 FH 1,366 99 1,148 FH 1,006 FH 992 FH 975 FH 962 99 959 FH 945 99 941 99 914 FH 784 FH 771 102 1,685 FH 1,531 99 1,482 FH Postal District 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Project Name EAST VIEW PARKSHORE MARGATE POINT OCEAN PARK PRESTIGE LOFT SANCTUARY GREEN DUNMAN VIEW MANDARIN GARDEN CONDOMINIUM GLAMOUR VILLE LAGUNA PARK THE ESPIRA JOO CHIAT MANSIONS NEPTUNE COURT BAYSHORE PARK BLEU @ EAST COAST CASA MERAH LAGUNA GREEN THE CLEARWATER CASCADALE LAGUNA 88 DAHLIA PARK CONDOMINIUM OASIS @ ELIAS CHANGI RISE CONDOMINIUM LIVIA MODENA SAVANNAH CONDOPARK THE TROPICA MELVILLE PARK Area (sqft) 1,098 1,335 1,281 2,110 915 1,281 1,335 1,001 1,216 1,615 1,851 1,238 1,270 1,076 980 1,238 1,066 1,313 1,550 2,368 1,270 980 1,023 1,324 1,475 2,271 1,335 1,389 Transacted Price ($) 1,500,000 1,750,000 1,650,000 2,550,000 1,080,000 1,470,000 1,443,000 1,065,000 1,200,000 1,550,000 1,650,000 1,100,000 1,068,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 1,100,000 1,350,000 1,460,000 2,080,000 1,110,000 1,030,000 970,000 1,250,000 1,345,000 1,838,800 1,000,000 980,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,366 FH 1,311 FH 1,288 FH 1,209 FH 1,180 FH 1,148 99 1,081 99 1,064 99 987 FH 960 99 891 FH 889 FH 841 99 1,301 99 1,225 FH 1,212 99 1,032 99 1,028 99 942 FH 878 99 874 FH 1,052 99 949 99 944 99 912 99 810 99 749 99 706 99

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 89

Postal District 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 23 25 25 25 26 26 26 28 Project Name THE QUARTZ THE QUARTZ CENTRAL VIEW EVERGREEN PARK BISHAN 8 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN BRADDELL VIEW THE CASCADIA MAPLEWOODS GARDENVISTA GRAND REGENCY SIGNATURE PARK PANDAN VALLEY PINE GROVE THE CENTRIS THE LAKESHORE THE LAKESHORE GLENDALE PARK HILLBROOKS ROSEWOOD ROSEWOOD WOODGROVE CONDOMINIUM BULLION PARK BULLION PARK BULLION PARK NIM GARDENS Area (sqft) 1,066 1,206 1,216 1,367 980 883 1,453 883 850 947 818 1,421 1,464 1,927 1,292 947 1,119 1,033 1,270 1,023 1,173 2,024 1,238 1,238 2,207 1,830 Transacted Price ($) 1,168,000 1,280,000 1,045,000 1,120,000 1,150,000 1,020,000 1,400,000 1,522,000 1,315,000 1,270,000 950,000 1,510,000 1,460,000 1,600,000 1,570,000 1,080,000 1,210,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 890,000 963,500 1,400,000 1,350,000 1,320,000 2,000,000 1,542,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,096 99 1,062 99 859 99 819 99 1,174 99 1,156 99 963 99 1,724 FH 1,546 FH 1,341 99 1,161 FH 1,063 FH 997 FH 830 99 1,215 99 1,140 99 1,081 99 1,161 FH 1,023 FH 870 99 821 99 692 99 1,091 FH 1,066 FH 906 FH 843 FH

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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