Li nk i ng Food, Far mer s and

Mar k et s
Si r Gor don Conw ay ,
Pr of essor of I nt er nat i onal
Devel opment ,
Agr i cul t ur e f or I mpact ,
I mper i al Col l ege London
Gl obal Donor Pl at f or m f or
Rur al Dev el opment AGA,
The Net her l ands,
Januar y 31
st
, 2013
Recurring food price spikes

About 1 billion people
(1 in 6 of the worlds population)
are chronically hungry

We have to increase food production by
70-100% by 2050
St unt i ng l i nk ed t o over 3.5 m deat hs under f i v es

St unt i ng has l ar gel y i r r ever si bl e l ong- t er m
ef f ect s on heal t h and dev el opment

DEMAND
Ri si ng
popul at i ons
Ri si ng per
capi t a
i ncomes
Gr ow i ng
demand f or
l i v est ock
pr oduct s
Gr ow i ng
demand f or
bi of uel s
SUPPLY
I mpact of
cl i mat e
change
I ncr easi ng
w at er &
l and scar ci t y
Sl ow i ng of
pr oduct i v i t y
i ncr eases
Ri si ng f uel &
f er t i l i ser
pr i ces
spi k es
CONTRI BUTE
TO HUNGER
Meat consumpt i on r i ses
w i t h per capi t a i ncome


Ri se i n Meat Consumpt i on
Source: FAO,
2009

World 8unk, zoo. World
LevelomenL lndlcuLors

Aver age
Annual Max
Temp > 30
0
C
5ource: Ericksen et a| Mapping hotspots of c|imate change and food insecurity in the g|oba|
tropics
Russi a
Sever e heat w ave i n 2010
Doubl ed Moscow s deat h
r at e
30% of gr ai n cr ops l ost t o bur ni ng
Pak i st an
Wor st f l oods i n 80 y ear s
Ki l l ed over 1600 peopl e
Submer ged 1/ 5t h of t he count r y , i ncl udi ng
14% of Pak i st an s cul t i vat ed l and
FOOO
5ECURITY
POLITICAL
LEAOER5HIP
INNOVATION
MARkET5
PEOPLE
Mr s. Namar unda
Survival line
Months
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l

h
a
r
v
e
s
t

(
t
o
n
s
/
h
a
)

1
2
3
2 3 1 4
I nsec ur e Far m
Weeds
Pests
Drought

Ther e i s not much mor e new
ar abl e l and avai l abl e
We hav e t o i nt ensi f y
Mor e w i t h Less

Gr eat er pr oduct i vi t y but smal l er
envi r onment al f oot pr i nt

I ncr eased y i el ds or pr oduct i on
On t he same amount of l and
Wi t h l ess w at er
Less f er t i l i ser s
Less pest i ci des
Low er emi ssi ons of Gr eenhouse Gases
I ncr eased nat ur al capi t al
& envi r onment al ser vi ces

Gr eat er r esi l i ence
Use ecol ogi cal pr i nci pl es t o
desi gn agr i cul t ur al pr act i ces

e.g.
- Agr of or est r y
- I nt egr at ed Pest
Management ( I PM)

- Or gani c f ar mi ng
z-q tonnes C jha
Pl ant s mor e nut r i t i ous
car bohy dr at e & pr ot ei n
mi cr onut r i ent s ( Vi t A, i r on, zi nc)
Pl ant s mor e r esi l i ent t o
pest s and di seases
cl i mat e change
Pl ant s mor e ef f i ci ent at
conver t i ng sunl i ght t o f ood
t ak i ng up ni t r ogen f r om t he at mospher e
usi ng w at er
Mont y Jones
$500 mi l l i on l osses
a y ear i n Uganda
Academi a Si ni ca
pr ovi ded sw eet
pot at o gene
Successf ul l y
t r ansf er r ed t o
bananas
I n Ugandan f i el d
t r i al s
Ent i r el y
gover nment f unded

Unst abl e & unpr edi ct abl e gover nment pol i ci es

Technol ogi es ( eg. seeds) not appr opr i at e or t oo
r i sk y
Hi gh t r ansact i on cost s
Monopol y pow er of l ocal t r ader s, deal er s and
l ender s
Out put pr i ces t oo l ow
Hi gh t r anspor t cost s
Far mi ng w i t hout busi ness goal s
Good gover nance
An appr opr i at e enabl i ng
envi r onment
But t hey do not have t o be per f ect
Mode| of A||iance for a Green Revo|ution for Africa (AGRA)
Rural Economy
Farm Household in the
local community
Seed Co
Agrodealer
Fertiliser
Co
Banks for
microcredit
Local
trader
Connectivity
Regional trade
National trade
Reliable quality
Accessible
Affordable
With subsidies or microcredit
Plus extension advice
And microinsurance
Vi ct or i a Seeds
I nput Mar k et s
Fai r , ef f i ci ent , t r anspar ent
Accessi bl e
Choi ce

Domest i c/ r egi onal mar k et s may be a
bet t er bet t han gl obal
Focus on r et ur n
Use smar t subsi di es i n some si t uat i ons
Encour age f ar mer gr oupi ngs
Ensur e pr i vat e sect or has cent r al r ol e
Suppor t capaci t y bui l di ng & l ear ni ng
I ncr ease bar gai ni ng pow er , r educe r i sk s,
cr eat e gr eat er added val ue

I ncl ude f ood, f odder , seed bank s, st or age
f aci l i t i es, savi ngs and cr edi t gr oups, ev en
ex t ended f ami l i es
Cooper at i ves
- Need t o be f ocused smal l w i t h hi gh r et ur ns
- Tr ansact i on cost s can be hi gh
- Of t en pol i t i cal - need t o bui l d t r ust
Cont r act f ar mi ng
- Pr edi ct abl e and r el i abl e ( but not al w ay s)
- Pr obl em of si de- sel l i ng
Savanna
Agr i cul t ur al
Resear ch
I nst i t ut e
Ther e i s no bl uepr i nt
Each si t uat i on i s di f f er ent
Faci l i t at e & enabl e
Lear n & adj ust
Some good ex per i ence of l i nk i ng
poor est and most mar gi nal but need
mor e
Pl an r i gi dl y w i t h st r i ct t ar get s
Per si st no mat t er w hat e.g. r ef use t o
admi t y ou have w r ong model
Change as much as possi bl e at t he
same t i me
Av oi d spendi ng t i me & f unds on
moni t or i ng
Gi ve hand- out s
Hav e no f unds or t i me i n r eser ve t o
deal w i t h unex pect ed pr obl ems
Br i ng i n out si der s t o r un & f i x pr obl ems
Women as:
Far mer s
Mot her s
I nnovat or s
Educat or s
Wumbl Mlchuel. Agfux
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Agriculture Growth
C
o
n
s
t
a
n
t

$

m
i
l
l
i
o
n

(
2
0
0
0
)
(
3
-
y
e
a
r

m
o
v
i
n
g

a
v
e
r
a
g
e
)
1
9
6
1
/
6
2
1
9
6
2
/
6
4
1
9
6
4
/
6
6
1
9
6
6
/
6
8
1
9
6
8
/
7
0
1
9
7
0
/
7
2
1
9
7
2
/
7
4
1
9
7
4
/
7
6
1
9
7
6
/
7
8
1
9
7
8
/
8
0
1
9
8
0
/
8
2
1
9
8
2
/
8
4
1
9
8
4
/
8
6
1
9
8
6
/
8
8
1
9
8
8
/
9
0
1
9
9
0
/
9
2
1
9
9
2
/
9
4
1
9
9
4
/
9
6
1
9
9
6
/
9
8
1
9
9
8
/
0
0
2
0
0
0
/
0
2
2
0
0
2
/
0
4
2
0
0
4
/
0
6
2
0
0
6
/
0
8
Average growth
2.6%/year
Average growth
5.1%/year
Average growth
-3.1%/year
1974
1982
34
16
12
8
30.3
24.9
21.8
17.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Undernourishment (FAOSTAT) (left axis) Under-5 underweight (DHS) (left axis)
Food supply (FAOSTAT) (right axis)
%
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
Agriculture
develops
&
intensifies
Greater
yields
&
Nutritive
crops
Farmers
more
prosperous
More
wage
labour
Less
hunger
Better
health
Rural
economy
grows
More rural
employment
More
roads and
markets
Greater trade
opportunities

Ur ban
economy
l i nk s

Sust ai nabl e
di et s
& Bet t er
envi r onment
m
mers
ore
perous us


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