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MR1 - PES 2013-1 MR on Senatorial Preferences (Final)

MR1 - PES 2013-1 MR on Senatorial Preferences (Final)

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Published by jojocarlom
Pulse Asia January 19-30, 2013 Survey
Pulse Asia January 19-30, 2013 Survey

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Published by: jojocarlom on Feb 08, 2013
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(February 8, 2013)FROM: Prof. Ronald D. HolmesPresident
Pulse Asia, Inc.RE: Pulse Asia’s January 2013 Nationwide Survey onFilipinos’ Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections
Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on
 Filipinos’ Senatorial  Preferences for the May 2013 Elections
from the January 2013
nationalsurvey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating thisinformation.The survey fieldwork was conducted from
January 19 to 30, 2013
using face-to-face interviews. The key developments that preoccupied Filipinos in January 2013include the following: (1) the alleged misuse of Senate funds and the subsequentaffirmation of support for the leadership of Senate President Enrile; (2) several issuancesfrom and activities of the COMELEC in connection with the gun ban, release of officiallist of candidates for national and local posts, testing of the PCOS machine, start of ballotprinting, air time and campaign advertisement ruling; (3) the investigation of the allegedshoot out in Atimonan, Quezon involving suspected jueteng operator Victor “Vic”Siman; (4) increasing number of reports on criminality such as the jewelry store robberyin SM Megamall and the slay of an Isabela town mayor in QC; (5) the passage of theHuman Rights Victims Reparation and Recognition Act of 2013 in Congress; (6) thePhilippines’ filing of a case in a United Nations’ (UN) Arbitral Tribunal in connectionwith the territorial dispute with China; (7) the arrest in Sabah and botched deportationback to the Philippines of Aman Group founder Manuel Amalilio; (8) the damage
 inflicted by a US Naval vessel to 1,000 square meters of coral in the Tubbataha reef; (9)the continuing issue arising from the suspension of Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia; (10)the failure of the House of Representatives to open floor debates on their version of theFOI bill; (11) President Benigno S. Aquino’s delivery of the keynote address on the fightagainst corruption at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland; (12) the oath-taking of US President Barack Obama and the confirmation hearing of Senator John F.Kerry as the next US Secretary of State; and (13) in the economic front, continuousincrease in Stock Market Index; the record-breaking rallies in the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) as it continue to climb and the attainment of the target inflationtrend for the year 2012 (3.2%)Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters 18 years oldand above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a
2% error margin at the 95%confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the surveyhave the following error margins at 95% confidence level:
7% for Metro Manila,
3%for the rest of Luzon and
5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. (Those interested infurther technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design mayrequest Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-testedquestions actually used.)Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design andconduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. Inkeeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan groupinfluenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its ownwithout any party singularly commissioning the research effort.For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, PulseAsia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief ResearchFellow at 09189436816.
Pulse Asia’s November 2012
Ulat ng Bayan
Survey:Media Release on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferencesfor the May 2013 Elections08 February 2013Senators Loren Legarda and Chiz Escudero maintain their lead in thesenatorial race; only 34% of Filipino registered voters have a completesenatorial line-up for the May 2013 elections
Of the 33 candidates vying for a seat in the Senate, 12 have a statisticalchance of winning if the May 2013 elections were held during the survey period.Virtually all of the probable winners are either former or current members ofCongress. Two probable winners are common candidates of the coalition led bythe Liberal Party (LP) and the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) while the restof the list is evenly split with both coalitions accounting for five other probablewinners each.Two senators seeking re-election – Senator Loren Legarda (58.0%) andSenator Chiz Escudero (54.3%) continue to lead the senatorial race, sharing 1stand 2nd places. Meanwhile Senator Alan Peter Cayetano lands in 3rd place with48.9% of registered voters supporting his re-election while Ms Nancy Binay(43.6%) and San Juan City Representative JV Ejercito Estrada (43.5%) share 4th to9th places. Ranked 4th to 12th are Senator Antonio Trillanes IV (41.1%), SenatorAquilino Pimentel (40.7%), Cagayan Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr. (40.4%)and former Las Piñas Representative Cynthia Villar (39.1%). Completing the listof probable winners are three candidates who share 6th to 12th places – formerSenator Migz Zubiri (37.6%), Aurora Province Representative Edgardo Angara(37.1%), and Senator Gringo Honasan (36.8%).
(Please refer to Table 1.)
With less than four months to go before the May 2013 elections, onlyabout a third of the Filipino electorate has a complete senatorial slate (34%) while8.6% does not express support for any of those running for senator. Filipinoregistered voters are naming a mean of eight and a median of eight (out of amaximum of 12) of their preferred candidates for senator. Across regions andsocio-economic classes, mean figures range from five in Region 2 to 10 in Region12. A median figure of eight is recorded in most of these sub-groupings. OnlyRegion 12 has more than half of its adult population (62%) already naming 12senatorial candidates they favor for the May 2013 elections.
(Please refer to Tables 2and 3.)

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