-

The Blue Dog Coalition

February 7, 2009
David M. Walker
President and CEO
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation
and
Former Comptroller General of the United States
 Composition of Federal
Spending

1968 1988 2008

Defense Social Security Medicare & Medicaid

Net interest All other spending

Source: PGPF analysis of Office of Management and Budget data. 2
 Federal Spending for
Mandatory and Discretionary
Programs
1968 1988 2008

Net Interest Discretionary Mandatory

Source: PGPF analysis of Office of Management and Budget data. 3
 Major Fiscal Exposures
($ trillions)
2000 2008

 Explicit liabilities $6.9 $12.2

 Publicly held debt
 Military & civilian pensions & retiree health
 Other

 Commitments & contingencies 0.5 1.4

 E.g., PBGC, undelivered orders
 Implicit exposures 13.0 42.9
 Future Social Security benefits 3.8 6.6
 Future Medicare Part A benefits 2.7 12.7
 Future Medicare Part B benefits 6.5 15.7
 Future Medicare Part D benefits -- 7.9
Total $20.4 $56.4
Source:  PGPF analysis of 2000 and 2008 Financial Report of the United States Government.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.  Estimates for Social Security and Medicare are at present value as of January 1 of each year 
4
and all other data are as of September 30.  
 How Big is Our
Growing Fiscal Burden?
This fiscal burden can be translated and compared as follows:

Total –major fiscal exposures $56.4 trillion

Total household net worth1 $56.5 trillion
Burden/Net worth ratio 99 percent
Burden2
Per person $184,000
Per full-time worker $435,000
Per household $483,000
Income
Median household income (2007)3 $48,201
Disposable personal income per capita (2007)4 $33,253
Source: PGPF analysis of US Government data.
Notes:  (1) Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts, Table B.100, 2008:Q3 (December 6, 2008); (2) Burdens are calculated using estimated total U.S. 
population as of 10/1/2008, from the U.S. Census Bureau; full­time workers reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in NIPA table 6.5D (Aug. 1, 2008); and 
households reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, in Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2006 (Aug. 2008; (3) U.S. Census 
Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2006 (Aug. 2007); and (4) Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and 
Outlays, table 2, (Nov. 29, 2007).   5
 Potential Fiscal Outcomes
Under Alternative Simulation
Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP

Percent of GDP

Revenue

Source:  GAO September 2008 analysis.

6
 The U.S. Federal Debt
(Percentage of GDP)
Past

Civil War

SOURCE: PGPF compilation. Projections based upon official government sources.
7
Foreign Ownership Share of Federal
Debt Held by the Public Has
Increased
FY 1998 FY 2008
Total Debt Held by the  Total Debt Held by the 
Public: $3.73 trillion Public: $5.81 trillion

Foreign and international investors 
Federal Reserve
Domestic investors and state and local governments
Source: PGPF summary of Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve data.
Note: Totals and percent increases may not add due to rounding 8
 Key National Indicators:
Where the United States Ranks
The United States may be the only
superpower, but compared to most other
OECD countries on selected key economic,
social, and environmental indicators, on
average, the U.S. ranks

17 OUT OF 28
OECD Categories for Key Indicators
(2007 OECD Factbook)
 Quality of
 Population/Migration  Energy  Environment
Life
 Macroeconomic  Economic
 Labor Market  Education
Trends Globalization
 Science &  Public
 Prices
Tech. Finance
Source:  PGPF analysis of 2007 OECD Factbook.
9
The Way Forward

10
These Challenges Go Beyond
 Numbers and Dollars—
It’s About

11