GermanyMakesAnotherBalkanMess

http://nationalinterest.org/print/commentary/germanymakesanothe...

PublishedonTheNationalInterest(http://nationalinterest.org)
SourceURL(retrievedon Dec2,2011):http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/germanymakes anotherbalkanmess5932

GermanyMakesAnotherBalkanMess
| More [1] | September26,2011 TedGalenCarpenter[2]

GermanchancellorAngelaMerkelhas receivedundeservedpraiseforadoptinganuncompromisingpositionregarding KosovoinmeetingswithSerbianpresidentBorisTadic.Thelatestexampleofa laudatoryreactionisthepiece[3]byMortonAbramowitzandJamesHooper. AbramowitzandHooperarethrilledthatshemadeitcleartoTadicthatKosovowould notbepartitionedandthattheareainhabitedbySerbsnorthoftheIbarRiverwas Kosovoterritory.Further,shetoldtheleaderofastillfragiledemocraticSerbiathat theKosovoissuehadtoberesolvedbeforeSerbiacouldentertheEU. Ratherthanmeritingpraise,Merkelsrigid,obtuseanddecidedlyunhelpfulstance

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GermanyMakesAnotherBalkanMess

http://nationalinterest.org/print/commentary/germanymakesanothe...

mayhavetorpedoedanychanceofresolvingtheKosovodisputeineitheratimelyor sustainablefashion.Herultimatumalsoundercutsthemostdemocraticand proWesternSerbiangovernmentthattheEUislikelytoencounterintheforeseeable future. Unfortunately,thisisnotthefirsttimethataGermangovernmenthasmadean alreadydifficultsituationintheBalkansevenworse.AsYugoslaviacameapartinthe early1990s,Berlinsabotagedapromisinginternationalinitiativethatmighthave calmedthebrewingstorminthenewlymintedcountryofBosniaandHerzegovina. Thistime,GermanofficialshavespurnedBelgradeshintsthat,despitemajordomestic politicalimpediments,theSerbiangovernmentmightbepreparedtoacceptKosovos independenceifterritorialadjustmentsweremadesothatthepredominantlySerb regionnorthoftheIbarRiverwouldremainwithSerbia.Shrewddiplomatswouldhave exploredthosehintstoseeiftheywereserious.Merkelandheradvisers, unfortunately,rejectedanysuggestionofreciprocity. Yet,ifapartitionofKosovowouldremoveamajorheadachefromtheBalkanregion,it wouldseemtobeapricewellworthpaying.Torejectsuchanideaoutofhandisa caseofdiplomaticmalpractice.InsistingthatKosovoberecognizedwithinitscurrent, arbitraryboundariescreatesneedlessinstability.Atbest,theSerbpopulationnorthof theIbarwillbearestlessminoritydiscriminatedagainstbytheAlbanianKosovar regime.Atworst,theybecomeacandidateforethniccleansingonthewatchofNATO andtheEU. NotonlydidMerkelprobablywreckanychanceforanorderlyendtotheKosovo squabble,virtuallyguaranteeingthatpeacekeepingforceswillhavetoremainfora verylongtime,shealsosetaworrisomeprecedentregardingthestandardsforjoining theEU.BydemandingthatSerbiaabjectlyacceptthesecessionofaportionofits territory,sheisincludingarequirementthatnocurrentmemberhadtomeet.The contrastwiththetreatmentofCyprusisespeciallystriking.Therewasnodemandthat thelegitimateCypriotgovernmentaccepttheindependenceofthesocalledTurkish RepublicofNorthernCyprusbeforeCypruscouldbecomeamemberoftheEU. Merkelspositiononethatissupportedbymost(althoughitshouldbenoted,notall) EUgovernmentswillstrengthentheimpressionamongSerbsthattheWesthasone standardforthemandadifferentstandardforeveryoneelseinEurope.Unfortunately, thatimpressionoftenseemswellfounded.Sincetheearly1990s,U.S.andEUpolicies appeartobebasedonthebeliefthatallethnicgroupsintheformerYugoslaviahavea righttopoliticalselfdetermination,includingsecessionexceptforSerbs.Itisanugly, discriminatoryapproach,andMerkelsconductisbutthelatestexample. FargreaterWesternrealismandflexibilityisimperative.Theoptionofpartitionto createmorecohesiveandstablepoliticalentities[4]needstobeputonthetable.That meansbeingreceptivetoterritorialchangesbasedonethnicpartitionwithrespectto bothBosniaandKosovo.Theformerisnoclosertoethnicreconciliationandpolitical viabilitytodaythanitwaswhentheDaytonAccordsweresignednearly16yearsago. Theartificialnatureofthatpretendcountryisexceededonlybyitschronically dysfunctionalnature. ThetaskofpartitioninKosovowouldbemorelimitedandlesschallenging.The Kosovarswouldretaincontrolofnearly90percentofKosovoscurrentterritory,and theSerbpopulationwouldbeabletoleavethejurisdictionofapoliticalentitythatthey loathe.Inaddition,suchabreakthroughmightenableKosovotoreceivediplomatic

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GermanyMakesAnotherBalkanMess

http://nationalinterest.org/print/commentary/germanymakesanothe...

recognitionfromthedozensofcountriesaroundtheworldthat,despiteintense pressurefromtheUnitedStatesandtheprincipalEUcountries,havethusfarrefused todoso. Ideally,WashingtonshouldbeabletoviewMerkelsanticsandtheentiremisguided policyintheBalkansasabemusedspectator.Butthankstotheinsatiabledesireto meddleonthepartofpreviousadministrations,weareentangledtheUnitedStates haspeacekeepingtroopsinKosovo.Indeed,personnelfromtheTexasNationalGuard arecurrentlyontheirwaytheretoparticipateinthatquixoticnationbuildingmission. U.S.leadersoughttohavehadenoughoftheinternationalsocialengineeringcrusade intheBalkansbynow.WashingtonsresponsetoMerkelshamhandedapproach shouldbetocautionBerlinandotherEUcapitalsabouttheprobabledeleterious ramificationsoftheircurrentpolicy.U.S.officialsalsoshouldputtheirEuropean counterpartsonnoticethatiftheBalkansagainblowupbecauseofGermanled diplomaticmismanagement,theEUwillhavetodealwiththeconsequencesentirely alone.Asafirststep,theUnitedStatesshouldimmediatelywithdrawallofits peacekeepingforcesfromKosovo.ThebroadermessagetotheEuropeansshouldbe: DonteventhinkaboutcallingonWashingtontohelpbailyououtofyourfolly especiallyafteryouvespurnedthelastbestchanceforapeaceful,equitable resolutionoftheKosovoproblem. TedGalenCarpenter,seniorfellowfordefenseandforeignpolicystudiesattheCato Institute,istheauthorofeightbooksoninternationalaffairs,includingBadNeighbor Policy:Washington'sFutileWaronDrugsinLatinAmerica.Heisalsoacontributing editortoTheNationalInterest. Moreby
SourceURL(retrievedon Dec2,2011):http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/germanymakes anotherbalkanmess5932 Links: [1]http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=250&ampusername=nationalinterest [2]http://nationalinterest.org/profile/tedgalencarpenter [3]http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/serbiaseuultimatum5901 [4]http://nationalinterest.org/blog/theskeptics/partitionornotpartition4948

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