Texas economy stands out

By SHERYL JEAN
Staff Writer sjean@dallasnews.com

LOCAL ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT | POST-RECESSION REBOUND

By TROY OXFORD
Staff Artist toxford@dallasnews.com

The Texas economy fared better than other states during the recession and since it ended in June 2009. Last year, Texas led the nation in job creation thanks, largely to a revived housing market and a strong oil and gas industry. Since the end of the recession, the state and the Dallas-Fort Worth area have seen higher home sales and prices, more manufacturing activity and growing auto and retail sales. Here are some details of that post-recession growth:
TEXAS EMPLOYMENT Texas employers added jobs for 37 of the 45 months since the recession ended. The state has added more than 1 million jobs since June 2009.
11,200 jobs 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000
J J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F MAMJ J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F M 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TEXAS MANUFACTURING The Texas production index a key measure of manufacturing conditions rose in March and has remained in positive territory since December 2011. National manufacturing activity declined in March.

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
J J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F MAMJ J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F M 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NORTH TEXAS HOME SALES Monthly existing home sales have more than doubled since their low in January 2011 but are still not back to the mid-2006 peak. Just in the Dallas area, for-sale listings have fallen by half, and inventory has dropped to less than three months.

8,000 sales 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

J J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F MAMJ J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F M 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NORTH TEXAS HOME PRICES Median prices for existing single-family homes are at a record high after hitting a recession low of $129,000 in January 2009. Pent-up demand, a short supply and the return of bidding wars are driving up prices.

$180 thousand $160 $140 $120 $100

J J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F MAMJ J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F M 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NORTH TEXAS AUTO SALES 35,000 vehicles sold New car and truck sales in the 30,000 four-county Dallas-Fort 25,000 Worth area rose 15.9 percent 20,000 in 2012, returning to 15,000 pre-recession levels. 10,000 Year-over-year sales fell in 5,000 March but still were up 5.8 0 percent for the rst quarter.

J J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F MAMJ J A S O N DJ F MAM J J A S O N DJ F M 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; North Texas Real Estate Information Systems; Texas A&M Universitys Real Estate Center; The Freeman Metroplex Recap

The bottom line

Auto sales are a signicant indicator as to whether or not the economy is growing because its a big-ticket item. Other than a two-year dip, auto sales have been a leader in bringing the economy out of the recession. Our sales have been extremely strong. The problem in our industry is not a lack of customer, but of product. Lee Chapman, president, Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan New Car Dealers Association The biggest economic surprise for 2013 will be the appreciation of housing prices across the country where theres low inventory and growing jobs. The normal response is for homebuilders to build homes, but that cant happen right now because banks are reluctant to make new construction loans. I expect low inventory to continue this year and maybe into next year. Mark Dotzour, chief economist, Texas A&M Universitys Real Estate Center Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth area have outperformed the rest of the nation since the recession ended, but some economic indicators, such as employment, appear to mirror a national economic slowdown. And it remains to be seen how much federal spending cuts will affect the local, Texas and U.S. economies this year. Sheryl Jean, staff writer, The Dallas Morning News