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Pulse Asia: Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections

Pulse Asia: Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections

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Pulse Asia findings on Filipinos’ Senatorial
Preferences for the May 2013 Elections from the April 2013 Pre-Election national
survey.
Pulse Asia findings on Filipinos’ Senatorial
Preferences for the May 2013 Elections from the April 2013 Pre-Election national
survey.

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: Sun.Star Philippine news on Apr 30, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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05/14/2014

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MEDIA
 
RELEASE
 
(April 30, 2013)FROM: Prof. Ronald D. HolmesPresident
 
Pulse Asia, Inc.RE: Pulse Asia’s April 2013 Nationwide Survey onFilipinosSenatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections
Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on
FilipinosSenatorialPreferences for the May 2013 Elections
from the April 2013
Pre-Election
nationalsurvey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating thisinformation. The survey fieldwork was conducted from
April 20 to 22, 2013
using face-to-face interviews. The following developments preoccupied Filipinos immediately prior toand during the conduct of this survey: (1) the continuing tension between allies of theRoyal Sultanate of Sulu and Malaysian military and police forces in Sabah; (2) the callsfor the resignation of Bureau of Customs (BOC) Commissioner Rozzano Rufino B.Biazon amidst reports of widespread oil smuggling in the country; (3) the decisions madeby the Supreme Court rejecting the petition to lift the suspension of the ReproductiveHealth (RH) law, allowing 41 of the 54 party-list groups earlier disqualified by theCommission on Elections (COMELEC) to run in May 2013 and calling on theCOMELEC to revert to the time limits imposed on candidates in the May 2010 elections;(4) COMELEC Chairperson Sixto Brillantes’s decision not to push through which hisresignation plan; (5) the appointment of Atty. Luie Tito G. Guia and Atty. Al A. Parreñoas the new COMELEC commissioners; (6) the completion of the printing of the ballotsfor the May 2013 elections; (7) various reports of election-related violence including the
 
 attack by the New People’s Army (NPA) on the group of Gingoog Mayor Ruth Guingonaon 20 April 2013 which resulted in the death of two of her bodyguards; (8) the increasinglevel of tension in the Asia-Pacific region arising from threats of a nuclear missile launchby North Korea; (9) the priority given by the Inter-Agency Committee on Extra-JudicialKillings, Enforced Disappearances and Human Rights Violations to 101 cases includingthat of missing farmer-activist Mr. Jonas Burgos; (10) the commitment made by theAmerican government to pay the $1.4 M fine arising from the damage caused by the USSGuardian in the Tubbataha Reef; (11) the grounding of a Chinese fishing vessel in the Tubattaha Reef on 09 April 2013 and the subsequent arrest of its 12 passengers forpoaching and other violations of the Tubbataha Marine Park’s rules; (12) the bombing atthe Boston Marathon on 15 April 2013 that killed three individuals and injured 264 andthe explosion of a fertilizer plant in Texas on 18 April 2013 the claimed the lives of atleast 15 people and injured more than 200; (13) the death of former British PrimeMinister Margaret Thatcher and (14) in economic news, the record-breaking performanceof the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) as its index breached 7,000 points, the reboundof the local currency vis-à-vis the American dollar after hitting a near five-month low inthe first half of April 2012, the release by the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) of the listof top individual taxpayers for 2011 and the increase in the electricity bills of ManilaElectric Company (Meralco) customers.Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters 18 years oldand above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a
±
2% error margin at the 95%confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the surveyhave the following error margins at 95% confidence level:
±
7% for Metro Manila,
±
3%for the rest of Luzon and
±
5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. (Those interested infurther technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design mayrequest Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-testedquestions actually used.)Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design andconduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. Inkeeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan groupinfluenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its ownwithout any party singularly commissioning the research effort.For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, PulseAsia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief ResearchFellow at 09189436816.
2
 
 
Pulse Asia’s April 201
3
Pre-Election Survey:Media Release on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferencesfor the May 2013 Elections30 April 2013Sixteen (16) senatorial candidates have a statistical chance of winning in theMay 2013 elections; there are few significant changes in these candidates’ voterpreferences between March and April 2013
If the May 2013 elections were conducted during the survey period, 11candidates from Team PNoy and five from the United Nationalist Alliance(UNA) would be among the probable winners. Most of these are either former orincumbent members of Congress. Leading the senatorial race are two re-electionists – Senators Loren Legarda and Francis Escudero (51.5% and 48.3%,respectively). Both lawmakers share 1
st
to 2
nd
places. In 3
rd
to 4
th
place is formerMovie and Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCB) ChairpersonGrace Poe whose senatorial bid has the support of 42.4% of registered voters.Another re-electionist – Senator Alan Peter Cayetano (40.0%) – occupies 3
rd
to 7
th
 places while landing in 4
th
to 9
th
places is former Las Piñas RepresentativeCynthia Villar (37.7%).
(Please refer to Table 1.)
Sharing 4
th
to 10
th
spots are Senator Antonio Trillanes IV (35.8%) andformer National Youth Commission (NYC) Chairperson Paolo Benigno AquinoIV (35.7%). Two UNA senatorial candidates land in 5
th
to 11
th
places – San JuanCity Representative JV Ejercito Estrada (34.7%) and UNA Deputy Secretary-General Binay (34.6%). They are followed by two more candidates from TeamPNoy – Senator Aquilino Pimentel III (32.7%, 6
th
to 12
th
places) and AuroraProvince Representative Juan Edgardo Angara (31.2%, 8
th
to 14
th
places).Completing the list of probable winners are former Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri(29.7%, 10
th
to 16
th
places), Senator Gregorio Honasan (27.9%, 11
th
to 16
th
places),Cagayan Province Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr. (27.2%, 11
th
to 16
th
 places), former Akbayan Party-List Representative Risa Hontiveros (25.8%, 12
th
 to 17
th
places) and former Senator Ramon Magsaysay, Jr. (25.6%, 12
th
to 17
th
 places).During the period March to April 2013, levels of support for most of theseprobable winners remain generally unchanged. However, five senatorialcandidates experience a decline in their respective national voter preferences –UNA Deputy Secretary-General Binay (-5.0 percentage points), CagayanProvince Representative Enrile (-5.2 percentage points), Senator Cayetano (-8.7percentage points), Senator Honasan (-8.9 percentage points) and SenatorPimentel (-9.0 percentage points). Among those outside the probable winners’circle, four candidates also register a drop in voter preferences – former Senate
3

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