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National Media Release

RP Data-Rismark April Hedonic Home Value Index Results


Released: Wednesday, May 1 2013
Further information contact: media@rpdata.com

Housing market softer in April after seasonally strong March quarter


Dwelling values contracted by -0.5% over the month of April after posting a solid 2.8% gain over the first three months of 2013.
Based on the April rpdata-Rismark Home Value Index, Index results as at April 30, 2013 capital city dwelling values recorded their first month Change in dwelling values Month Quarter YoY on-month decline since last December, posting a -0.5 Region Sydney -0.4% 1.1% 3.7% per cent fall across the combined capital cities index. Melbourne -0.5% 1.8% 1.6% The April decline in dwelling values partly reverses the Brisbane -0.7% -0.9% 2.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.9% growth seen over the first quarter of the year where Adelaide Perth -2.5% 0.0% 3.5% capital city dwelling values rose by 2.8 per cent. Hobart -3.1% -1.6% -1.4% The negative result for April brings the rolling quarterly movement in capital city dwelling values back to a more sustainable 1.1 per cent. Since the housing market reached a recent low point at the end of May last year, capital city dwelling values have recovered by 4.2 per cent. According to RP Datas director of research, Tim Lawless, the April results represent more of a stumble along the path to recovery than a sign of a renewed trend in value falls. When viewed in line with other metrics such as auction clearance rates, private treaty indicators and some improvement in housing finance demand, it is likely that the negative April result will be a blip along the path to recovery. We werent expecting that the high rate of growth evidenced over the first three months of the year would be sustained into April. A more measured pace of growth is a much more realistic outcome for the Australian housing market, especially considering that the first quarter is typically the strongest for value growth.
Darwin Canberra 8 capital city aggregate Rest of state* 0.2% -0.6% -0.5% 0.1% 5.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 5.9% 2.7% 2.7% 0.1%

Total gross returns


8.4% 5.4% 7.0% 6.5% 8.3% 3.9% 12.4% 7.6% 7.1%

Median dwelling price


$565,000 $491,000 $425,000 $375,000 $499,000 $311,500 $475,000 $495,000 $485,000 $326,000

* Rest of state change in values are for houses only to end of March

Highlights over the quarter


Best performing capital city: Darwin +5.0 per cent Weakest performing capital city: Hobart, -1.6 per cent
Highest rental yields: Darwin houses with gross rental yield of 6.0 per cent and Darwin Units at 6.1 per cent Lowest rental yields: Melbourne houses with gross rental yield of 3.6 per cent and Melbourne units at 4.4 per cent Most expensive city: Sydney with a median dwelling price of $565,000 Most affordable city: Hobart with a median dwelling price of $311,500

Rolling annual change in house and unit values Combined capital cities index

Rismark CEO Ben Skilbeck added, the quantum of the April pullback is seasonally typical of a market pause, meaning that if one were to take seasonal movements into consideration the market is not currently showing any downward trend.
Softer capital city dwelling values were recorded across every capital city apart from Adelaide where dwelling values were up 2.8 per cent over the month and in Darwin where values rose by 0.2 per cent. According to Mr Lawless, the April results for Adelaide should be interpreted with some caution. The strong month-on-month result for Adelaide is more likely the result of natural volatility across a relatively small market rather than the any sort of sustainable surge in dwelling values over the month, Mr Lawless said.
Source: RP DataRismark

12 month change in dwelling values

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National Media Release (Contd)


Across the major cities, Sydney values were down -0.4 per cent over the month, Melbourne values saw a -0.5 per cent drop, Brisbane values were down -0.7 per cent. Perth values recorded a -2.5 per cent fall.
At the combined capital city level the performance of the detached housing and the unit market have been very similar. House values are up 2.7 per cent over the past 12 months while unit values have risen by a slightly lower 2.5 per cent. Over the quarter the house and unit market has performed virtually the same with house values rising 1.0 per cent while unit values are up 1.1 per cent. Rental prices continue to trend higher with most cities recording an increase in rents. Across the combined capital cities, house rents were up 1.4 per cent over the three months ending April and unit rents were up 1.3 per cent. According to RP Datas Tim Lawless, Despite the improvement in rental rates, gross yields across the combined capital cities have held fairly firm due to the fact that dwelling values are also rising. The greatest yield improvements over the past year have been recorded across the Darwin and Perth markets where rents have been rising much faster than dwelling values. Perth rents are up 10.4 per cent over the past year and Darwin rents are up an even higher 11.4 per cent. At the other end of the spectrum, rents are falling across both the house and unit market in Hobart, down -1.3 per cent and -3.5 per cent over the past year. Canberra rents are also showing weakness, down -1.0 per cent for houses over the year, Mr Lawless said. According to Rismarks Ben Skilbeck, On a total return basis (that is, capital values plus gross rents) the national market is now 8.3 per cent above its May 2012 lows and 6.9 per cent above the previous market high of October 2010. While capital returns for the last 12 months are a modest 2.7 per cent, total gross returns over this period of 7.1 per cent are compelling in an environment where 5-year fixed rate loans can be obtained for as low as 5.39% p.a. Overall the housing market is in much better shape than it was a year ago where values were still falling and market sentiment was very low. Despite the weak April results we are in a market where auction clearance rates are consistently higher than 60 per cent nationally and around the 70 per cent mark in Melbourne and Sydney. Vendors arent discounting their asking prices as much as they were a year ago, providing further evidence that buyers and sellers are starting to find some even ground, Mr Lawless said. RP Datas Tim Lawless concluded, Importantly, our estimate for transaction volumes for the month of February was tracking about 8 per cent higher than a year ago, highlighting the fact that buyers are stepping off the sidelines. Media enquiries contact: Mitch Koper , rpdata national communications manager 1300 734 318 / media@rpdata.com Introduction to the RP Data-Rismark Daily Hedonic Home Value Index methodology: The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property comprising the index into its various formational and locational attributes, differing observed sales values for each property can be separated into those associated with varying attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Also, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of the stock of residential property comprising an index can be accurately tracked through time. RP Data owns and maintains Australia's largest property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. RP Data augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attributes data collected from a variety of sources. For detailed methodological information please visit www.rpdata.com www.rpdata.com/indices

Table 1: RP Data-Rismark Daily Home Value Index Results (Actual Results)


Brisbane Gold Coast Australia 5 Capitals (ASX) Australia 8 Capitals

Capital Growth to 30 April 2013 Table 1A: All Dwellings Month Quarter Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Total Return Year-on-Year
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter

Sydney

Melbourne

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Brisbane

-0.4% 1.1% 3.0% 3.7% 8.4% $565,000

-0.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.6% 5.4% $491,000

-0.5% -0.2% 1.0% 1.8% 6.8% $420,000

2.8% 2.0% 2.4% 1.9% 6.5% $375,000

-2.5% 0.0% 1.7% 3.5% 8.3% $499,000

-0.5% 1.1% 2.2% 2.6% 7.1% $481,000

-3.1% -1.6% 2.8% -1.4% 3.9% $311,500

0.2% 5.0% 2.6% 5.9% 12.4% $475,000

-0.6% 1.7% 3.2% 2.7% 7.6% $495,000

-0.7% -0.9% 1.2% 2.0% 7.0% $425,000

-0.5% 1.1% 2.3% 2.7% 7.1% $485,000

Table 1B: Houses Month Quarter Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Total Return Year-on-Year
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter

-0.4% 1.1% 3.2% 3.8% 8.3% $650,000

-0.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 5.4% $530,000

-0.5% -0.2% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0% $452,000

3.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 6.5% $393,500

-2.6% -0.2% 1.7% 3.7% 8.4% $515,000

-0.5% 1.1% 2.2% 2.7% 7.1% $510,000

-3.5% -2.0% 2.3% -2.0% 3.3% $341,000

0.0% 6.0% 4.5% 6.6% 13.2% $515,000

-0.5% 2.2% 3.6% 3.0% 7.8% $550,000

-0.9% -0.8% 1.0% 1.9% 6.7% $445,000

-0.6% 1.0% 2.3% 2.7% 7.1% $510,000

Table 1C: Units Month Quarter Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Total Return Year-on-Year
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter

-0.5% 1.3% 2.0% 3.3% 8.6% $500,000

0.4% 1.6% 2.7% 1.1% 5.7% $433,500

-0.5% -0.5% 1.1% -0.3% 5.2% $357,000

0.4% 0.4% 3.9% 1.2% 6.1% $320,000

-0.7% 2.3% 1.1% 1.3% 6.4% $427,500

-0.2% 1.2% 2.1% 2.1% 7.2% $433,500

1.2% 1.8% 7.9% 3.8% 9.1% $277,500

1.5% 0.6% -4.7% 2.7% 9.1% $415,000

-2.3% -3.9% -1.5% -1.0% 4.8% $413,000

0.8% -1.5% 2.9% 3.6% 9.5% $375,000

-0.1% 1.1% 2.2% 2.5% 7.6% $435,275

Table 1D: Rental Yield Results Houses Units

4.3% 5.0%

3.6% 4.4%

4.7% 5.4%

4.3% 4.7%

4.6% 5.0%

4.2% 4.9%

5.3% 4.9%

6.0% 6.1%

4.6% 5.7%

4.7% 5.5%

4.2% 4.9%

The indices in grey shading have been designed for trading environments in partnership with the Australian Securities Exchange (www.asx.com.au). Indices under blue shading (Hobart, Darwin, Canberra, Brisbane and the 8 capital city aggregate) are calculated under the same methodology however are not currently planned to be part of the trading environment. *The median price is the middle price of all settled sales over the three months to the end of the final month. Median prices are provided as an indicator of what price a typical home sold for over the most recent quarter. The median price has no direct relationship with the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index value. The change in the Index value over time reflects the underlying capital growth rates generated by residential property in the relevant region. The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index growth rates are not ordinarily influenced by capital expenditure on homes, compositional changes in the types of properties being transacted, or variations in the type and quality of new homes manufactured over time. The RP Data-Rismark index values are not, therefore, the same as the median price sold during a given period. See the methodology below for further details.

Methodology: The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property comprising the index into its various formational and locational attributes, differing observed sales values for each property can be separated into those associated with varying attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Also, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of the stock of residential property comprising an index can be accurately tracked through time. RP Data owns and maintains Australia's largest property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. RP Data augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources. For detailed methodological information please visit www.rpdata.com

For more information on the RP Data-Rismark Indices, please go to http://www.rpdata.com Media enquiries contact: Mitch Koper , rpdata national communications manager 1300 734 318 / media@rpdata.com
RP Data RP Data is the number one provider of property information, analytics and risk management services in Australia and New Zealand, 100 per cent owned by CoreLogic CLX the worlds largest data and analytics provider. Through its expansive database, it attracts a strong and loyal customer base ranging from real estate agents, finance and banking organisations, government and consumers. RP Data combines public, contributory and propriety data to develop predictive decision-making analytics, coupled with its business services that bring insight and transparency to property markets. Backed by 30-years of history, RP Data is the holder of the countrys largest residential and commercial property database; this provides an excellent platform to electronically val ue very property in Australia on a weekly basis - on average 30 million valuations are generated each month. Recognised as a leader and an established player in the mortgage industry, RP Data continues to work with the Australian Finance and lending community to minimise risk and deliver value to consumers. Rismark International Rismark International ("Rismark") is a funds management and quantitative research business. It is dedicated to the development of intellectual property required to facilitate the creation of financial markets over the residential real estate asset class. Rismark also has a long history of advising Australian and overseas governments on the development of innovative economic policies as they relate to housing and financial markets. As a by-product of its quantitative research activities, Rismark has developed the technology and intellectual property underlying the market-leading RP Data-Rismark hedonic property price indices and related automated property valuation models (AVMs), amongst other things. For more information visit www.rismark.com.au.

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