Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 2, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 2, 2013

Highlights
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 119,000 in April. UKs Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8 -mark in the prior month. US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.7-mark in the last month. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable economic data from US in yesterdays trading session and decline in Chinas manufacturing data indicating a slowdown in the global economic growth. US Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change declined by 12,000 to 119,000 in April as against a rise of 131,000 in March. Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.1 points to 52.1-mark in April from rise of 52-level in last month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 50.7-mark in April as compared to rise of 51.3-level a month ago. Construction Spending declined by 1.7 percent in March with respect to rise of 1.5 percent in prior month. ISM Manufacturing Prices fell by 4.5 points to 50-level in April when compared to rise of 54.5-mark a month earlier.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY** SENSEX** DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5930.2 19504.2 14700.95 1582.7 16767.7 1964.0 58497.8 13799.4 91.03 1446.30 2330.50 6798.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.4 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 1.2 0.2 -0.4 -2.6 -1.8 0.0 -3.4 0.0

as on May 1, 2013 WoW 1.6 1.7 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.4 6.6 -0.1 -0.4 1.6 2.1 -2.9 -0.4 MoM 4.4 3.5 0.6 1.3 10.6 -1.0 7.0 4.6 -2.4 -6.8 -12.9 -13.4 0.9 YoY 14.2 6.6 10.7 12.6 14.9 -0.5 -6.3 47.6 -14.3 -13.1 -24.5 -19.4 1.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable economic data from the US. Further, US equities traded on a negative note which also prevented sharp downside in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 81.37 and closed at 81.52 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters (** Markets were closed on the occasion of Maharashtra Day)

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) ** US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) ** US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) ** 81.52 53.68 53.95 53.95 Prev. day -0.3 0.9 -0.86 -0.86 WoW -1.8 1.1 -0.78 -0.79

as on May 1, 2013 MoM -1.6 1.1 -1.33 -1.33 YoY 2.6 -1.9 1.72 1.72

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.9 percent on Tuesday. The currency appreciated on account of cut in the tax on interest payments to foreigners on government and corporate debt from 20 percent to 5 percent. Additionally, expectations of cut in key rates by the central bank of the country in its monetary policy meeting on 3rd May also supported an upside in the currency. Further, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day high of 53.65 and closed at 53.68 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.5,414.10 crores ($1,000.27 million) as on 30th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.61,036.30 crores ($11,310.30 million) till 30th April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of expectations of cut in the interest rates by the central bank in tomorrows review meeting coupled with forecast for favorable manufacturing PMI data. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for May 2, 2013 Support 53.70/53.50 Resistance 54.10/54.30

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 2, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in DX. However, weak economic data from the US increased the worries over global economic growth which capped sharp gains in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3242 and closed at 1.3177 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, expectation of interest rate cut by European Central Bank (ECB) may keep euro under pressure. However, expectations of favorable economic data from Euro zone may cushion sharp fall in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 70.30/70.00 70.80/71.10 valid for May 2, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) ** Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) ** Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) ** 1.3177 70.60 70.5 70.5 Prev. day 0.1 0.5 -0.90 -0.91

as on May 1, 2013 WoW 1.2 0.0 -0.17 -0.17 MoM 2.5 -1.1 0.74 0.72 YoY -0.4 0.64 0.63

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.14 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, positive manufacturing data from the country supported currency to gain strength. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with decline in nationwide house prices index capped sharp gains in the sterling pound. UKs Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.1 percent in April. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.2 points to 49.8-mark in April as against a rise of 48.6-level in March. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5604 and closed at 1.5552 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. However, expectations of favorable economic data from the country may cushion sharp decline in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for May 2, 2013 Support 83.20/82.80 Resistance

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) ** GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) ** GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX) ** 1.5552 83.591 83.49 Prev. day 0.14 -0.512 -1.05

as on May 1, 2013

WoW 1.9 0.93 0.68

MoM 2.8 1.36 0.91

YoY -4.1 -2.23 -3.14

83.46

-1.11

0.62

0.87

-3.18

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

83.70/84.00

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 2, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen traded on a flat note and appreciated marginally in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Monetary Base increased by 23.1 percent in April as against a rise of 19.8 percent in March. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 97.03 and closed at 97.38 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for May 2, 2013 Support 55.10/54.80 Resistance 55.60/55.90

JPY (% change)
Last 97.38 0.5531 55.38 55.34 Prev day 0.0 -0.20 -0.51 -0.56

as on May 1, 2013 WoW -2.1 1.39 0.45 0.44 MoM 4.7 -3.98 -4.58 -4.65 YoY 21.6 -16.17 -16.24 -16.28

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) ** JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) ** JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) **

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 2, 2013

Indicator Monetary Base y/y Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Construction PMI French 10-y Bond Auction Minimum Bid Rate ECB Press Conference Trade Balance Unemployment Claims Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q Country Japan Japan China Europe Europe UK Europe Europe Europe US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am 7:15am 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm Tentative 5:15am 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm Actual 23.1% 50.4 Forecast 50.6 44.6 44.9 48.1 0.50% -42.1B 346K 1.8% 0.8% Previous 19.8% 50.5 44.2 44.5 47.2 1.94/3.1 0.75% -43.0B 339K -1.9% 4.6% Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High High High High Medium Medium

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