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Currency Daily Report, May 2

Currency Daily Report, May 2

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Published by Angel Broking
2nd May, 2013
2nd May, 2013

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Published by: Angel Broking on May 02, 2013
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Currencies Daily Report
 
Thursday| May 2, 2013
 
www.angelbroking.com
 
Content 
OverviewUS DollarEuroGBPJPYEconomic Indicators
Angel Broking Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500
Disclaimer:
The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness andcorrectness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in
part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Ange
l Broking
Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on
Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst
vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130
Saif Mukadam
 –
Research Analyst
saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136
Anish Vyas - Research Analyst
anish.vyas@angelbroking.com(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104
Overview:
 
 
Currencies Daily Report
 
Thursday| May 2, 2013
 
www.angelbroking.com
 
Highlights
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 119,000 in April.
UK’s Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8
-mark in the prior month.US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.7-mark in the last month.Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable
economic data from US in yesterday’s trading session and decline inChina’s manufacturing data indicating a slo
wdown in the globaleconomic growth.US Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm EmploymentChange declined by 12,000 to 119,000 in April as against a rise of 131,000 in March. Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI) increased by 0.1 points to 52.1-mark in April from rise of 52-levelin last month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.6 points to 50.7-mark in April ascompared to rise of 51.3-level a month ago. Construction Spendingdeclined by 1.7 percent in March with respect to rise of 1.5 percent inprior month. ISM Manufacturing Prices fell by 4.5 points to 50-level inApril when compared to rise of 54.5-mark a month earlier.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.3 percent in the yesterday’s
trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global marketsentiments in the early part of the trade which led to decline in demandfor the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currencywas cushioned as a result of unfavorable economic data from the US.Further, US equities traded on a negative note which also preventedsharp downside in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 81.37 and closed at 81.52 on Wednesday.
Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.9 percent on Tuesday. The currencyappreciated on account of cut in the tax on interest payments toforeigners on government and corporate debt from 20 percent to 5percent. Additionally, expectations of cut in key rates by the centralbank of the country in its monetary policy meeting on 3rd May alsosupported an upside in the currency.Further, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in theDX also acted as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee. The currencytouched an intra-day high of 53.65 and closed at 53.68 against dollar onTuesday.For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.5,414.10 crores($1,000.27 million) as on 30th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capitalinflows stood at Rs.61,036.30 crores ($11,310.30 million) till 30th April2013.
Outlook
From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciateon the back of expectations of cut in the interest rates by the centralbank
in tomorrow’s review meeting coupled with forecast for favorable
manufacturing PMI data. However, sharp upside will be capped as aresult of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX.
Market Highlights
(% change)
 
as on May 1, 2013
LastPrev.dayWoW MoMYoYNIFTY**
5930.2 0.4 1.6 4.4 14.2
SENSEX**
19504.2 0.6 1.7 3.5 6.6
DJIA
14700.95 -0.9 0.2 0.6 10.7
S&P
1582.7 -0.9 0.2 1.3 12.6
FTSE
16767.7 -1.0 1.7 10.6 14.9
KOSPI
1964.0 1.2 2.4 -1.0 -0.5
BOVESPA
58497.8 0.2 6.6 7.0 -6.3
NIKKEI
13799.4 -0.4 -0.1 4.6 47.6
Nymex Crude(May13) - $/bbl
91.03 -2.6 -0.4 -2.4 -14.3
Comex Gold(
June’
13) - $/oz
1446.30 -1.8 1.6 -6.8 -13.1
ComexSilver(
May’13
) $/oz
2330.50 0.0 2.1 -12.9 -24.5
LME Copper (3month) -$/tonne
6798.00 -3.4 -2.9 -13.4 -19.4
CRB Index(Industrial)
- - - - -
G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -Yield
102.09 0.0 -0.4 0.9 1.2
Source: Reuters(** Markets were closed on the occasion of Maharashtra Day)
US Dollar
(% change)
 
as on May 1, 2013
 
LastPrev.dayWoW MoM YoYDollar Index
81.52 -0.3 -1.8 -1.6 2.6
US $ / INR (Spot) **
53.68 0.9 1.1 1.1 -1.9
US $ / INR
May’13
 Futures (NSE) **
53.95 -0.86 -0.78 -1.33 1.72
US $ / INR May
’1
3Futures (MCX-SX) **
53.95 -0.86 -0.79 -1.33 1.72
Technical Chart
 –
USD/INR
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
valid for May 2, 2013
 
Trend Support ResistanceUS Dollar/INR May
’1
3(NSE/MCX-SX)
Sideways 53.70/53.50 54.10/54.30
 
 
Currencies Daily Report
 
Thursday| May 2, 2013
 
www.angelbroking.com
 Euro
(% change)
 
as on May 1, 2013
 
Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoYEuro /$ (Spot)
1.3177 0.1 1.2 2.5 -0.4
Euro / INR (Spot)**
70.60 0.5 0.0 -1.1 -
Euro / INR May
’1
3Futures (NSE) **
70.5 -0.90 -0.17 0.74 0.64
Euro / INR May
’1
3Futures (MCX-SX)**
70.5 -0.91 -0.17 0.72 0.63
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart
 –
Euro
Source: Telequote
 GBP
(% change)
 
as on May 1, 2013
 
Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY$ / GBP (Spot)
1.5552 0.14 1.9 2.8 -4.1
 
GBP / INR (Spot)**
83.591 -0.512 0.93 1.36 -2.23
GBP / INRMay
’1
3 Futures(NSE) **
83.49 -1.05 0.68 0.91 -3.14
GBP / INR May
’1
3 Futures(MCX-SX) **
83.46 -1.11 0.62 0.87 -3.18
Source: Reuters
 
Technical Chart
 –
Sterling Pound
Source: Telequote
 
Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.1
percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of 
weakness in DX. However, weak economic data from the US increasedthe worries over global economic growth which capped sharp gains inthe currency.The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3242 and closed at 1.3177against dollar on Wednesday.
Outlook
In today’s session, we expect Euro to
depreciate on the back of rise inrisk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength inthe DX. Further, expectation of interest rate cut by European CentralBank (ECB) may keep euro under pressure. However, expectations of favorable economic data from Euro zone may cushion sharp fall in thecurrency.
 
Technical Outlook
valid for May 2, 2013
Trend Support ResistanceEuro/INR May
’1
3(NSE/MCX-SX)
Down 70.30/70.00 70.80/71.10
GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.14
percent in yesterday’s trade on
 the back of weakness in the DX. Further, positive manufacturing datafrom the country supported currency to gain strength. However, weakglobal market sentiments coupled with decline in nationwide houseprices index capped sharp gains in the sterling pound.
UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.1 percent in April.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.2points to 49.8-mark in April as against a rise of 48.6-level in March.
 
TheSterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5604 and closed at 1.5552against dollar on Wednesday.
Outlook
We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of risein risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength inthe DX. However, expectations of favorable economic data from thecountry may cushion sharp decline in the currency.Technical Outlook
valid for May 2, 2013
Trend Support ResistanceGBP/INR May
’1
3(NSE/MCX-SX)
Down 83.20/82.80 83.70/84.00

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