Myanmar and Mongolia

Many well-wishers welcomed Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi at the Yangon International Airport on May 7 as she arrived back from Mongolia. "As her arrival time was very late at night, I was worried that there wouldn't be many well-wishers. I wanted many people to welcome her. Now, a lot of people came to welcome her. I believe that whenever she went on foreign trips, she did beneficial things for the country," said Khin Saw Mu, vice chairperson of National League for Democracy branch office. The Nobel Prize winner was in Mongolia for a week to participate in the 7th Ministerial Conference of Community of Democracies at the invitation of Mongolian President Elbegdorj Tsakhia. She delivered a speech at the summit and received an award for her lifetime struggle to bring democracy in Myanmar. She also met with President Elbegdorj at the Government House in UB and gave a joint lecture with him. Just like Investment Agreement between Rio Tinto and Mongolian Government has opened the door for Mongolia to access to international investments in 2009, the visit of Mrs. Clinton and President Obama in 2011/2012 marked the significant event for the start of Myanmar Boom. Both Mongolia and Myanmar have become Symbol of the Frontier Markets in the last few years. In this report, we have compared the two countries and provided implications for investors.

Myanmar With its beautiful natural resources and a diverse range of cultures such as Buddhist and Bamar, Myanmar should have vast opportunities in tourism. In fact, since 1992, the government has encouraged tourism in the country. However, until very recently, only one million tourists entered the country annually as much of the country is completely off-limits to tourists, and the military very tightly controls interactions between foreigners and the people of Burma, particularly the border regions. But, the tourism will flourish in coming years because of its nature, culture and others.

On the other hand, the much bigger opportunities exist in other industries as well. In fact, since the visits of Mrs. Clinton and President Obama, a significant amount of interests have been created among international communities.

The country has been completely shut out from international business until recently. But, many multinational companies are rushing to enter the market. Below (Facts about Myanmar and Myanmar: Economic Data) are the basic information about the country. Below are several characteristics which I want to emphasize especially compared with Myanmar. 1. Population Decent size of population. 20 times bigger than Mongolia 2. Lots of ethnic groups 3. Life expectancy Very short! Probably one of the shortest in Asia. Around five years old shorter than Mongolia and 20 years shorter than Japan. 4. GDP Decent growth rate (5.5%) Growth rate should be higher in the next 2-3 years because of the boom But, 15-20% increase which Mongolia has experienced in 2011 will be difficult to achieve 5. Trade Surprisingly, trade surplus already. Thanks to Natural Gas and thanks to China..

Natural resources Strategically and resource-wise, there is no doubt that Myanmar has value. Resources include jade, gems, tin, zinc, copper, tungsten and lead. Other resources include natural gas, petroleum, timber, coal, limestone and hydro power. Around a year ago, state-run media trumpeted that SIPC Myanmar Petroleums exploration project in Magwe had found gas reserves of at least 900 billion cubic feet, and possibly as much as 7 million barrels of gas condensate. That is just one example of many. However, we do not have exact data on the resources and reserves just like Mongolia does not have. So, it is difficult to compare the two countries. However, our guess is, in terms of resource and economic value of minerals, Mongolia is bigger. But, in terms of feasibility, it may be true that Myanmar has better potential because they face coastline and less control by Government (So far). Speaking of infrastructure, both countries have problems and lots of time and money should be spent in a future to develop. In terms of environmental concerns, both countries have strong anti-mining industry sentiments. But, the approach to solve problems is quite different. One of the examples is protests against the Letpadaung copper mine in northwestern Burma which began last year in reaction to forced relocation and environmental concerns. Yet the liberalizing political system in Burma/Myanmar begins from a context forged in decades of top-down military rule. Protest may be tolerated, but the politicians can still decide when and how to listen. This is quite different from rather bottom-up approach in Mongolia.

Cheap Labor and Strategic Potential

One of the biggest reasons why investors are interested in Myanmar is because of its cheap and abundant labor. Monthly basic salaries are probably cheapest in Asia. Average workers salary in the manufacturing industry is only 53 USD in Myanmar. Also, salary for engineer and manager are very reasonable. In addition, the workers are young and they work very hard. Speaking of strategic potential, Myanmar is surrounded by big markets in Asia like China, India, Bangladesh and Thailand. The total populations of those surrounding countries are 2.8 billion and that accounts for 40 % of world population. Also, those countries are considered to be the fastest growing economy in Asia and the world. Therefore, there will be a huge opportunities to trade with them in a future. Cheap labor together with strategically important location, has added Myanmar as one of the most promising manufacturing hub. At this moment, there is only one industrial park in Myanmar which has global standard infrastructure. And, that particular park is fully occupied. But, after two years, when other industrial parks have started operations, many big global manufacturing companies should build their factories in Myanmar to diversify risks and to reduce cost away from China, Thailand and others. The boom of making new factories in Myanmar will certainly happen in two years just like what happened in Thailand, Vietnam, Philippine and Indonesia in 1990s.

Infrastructure According to CIA World Fact Book statistics, Burma has just 3,000 km of paved roads for a land area of 677,000 square kilometres. Some 30 per cent of the population has still to receive a clean drinking water supply. There are railways though 5,000 km of it but all on a narrow gauge. What Burma does have though, in addition to its mineral riches, are a long coastline facing India and the west, and pipelines. China is already a major investor in Burmas gas and oil sector and is likely to be the end-user of much of its oil and gas production. CNOOC is building twin pipelines from a coast to Yunnan province in southwestern China. Mongolia is also desperately in need of infrastructure (railroad, road, power plant, water etc). However, Mongolia is handicapped because of much smaller population and also because it is landlocked by Russia and China. Foreign Direct Investment Law Rich in natural resources and home to a series of growing industries, Myanmar seems poised to benefit from growing foreign investor interest. While much of Myanmars post-independence history has been dominated by military rule, in the last two years, there have been significant moves towards a more open and democratic political and civil society. Myanmar is gaining increasing international attention, resulting in an easing of sanctions. Nonetheless, it is still facing a number of challenges including legal framework. To broaden investment and development in the economy beyond the extractive and energy industries. A much anticipated foreign direct investment law has passed in 2012. In addition, the Government is willing to accelerate the speed of the legal reform. One of the biggest outcomes of recent Japanese Prime Ministers visit to Myanmar was providing technical assistance to the country especially to improve legal system. a move which, if implemented, would likely facilitate further modernization of industries over the coming years.

In addition, joining to ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) means Myanmar will be included in the same framework as other ASEAN Nations in terms of trade, free movement of capital and mobilities of people and policies etc. Therefore, it will significantly increase the convenience and reduce risks of foreign investors.

Myanmar-SWOT Below are the SWOT analysis of Myanmar and summaries of comparisons of Myanmar and Mongolia. 1. Similarities Young population, Rich in Natural Resources, Strategic location, Fiscal weakness, weak infrastructure, under-developed financial sector, Next Frontier for high growth, Environmental sustainability & Pollution, Inadequate urban and industrial planning, corruption 2. Advantages for Myanmar Less concerned on ownership issues of Government, Tax incentives (tax holiday etc), Population, Long coastal lines, cheap and abundant labor, ideal for manufacturing business 3. Advantages for Mongolia Huge economic value of Mining assets (both TT and OT are world class assets), higher impact to GDP growth with relatively smaller investments as size of GDP is 5 times smaller than Myanmar, real estate is cheaper and easier to purchase, Democracy

Conclusion Both Myanmar and Mongolia have huge potentials for investors. However, there should be risks related to investments. The question is how to mitigate those risks. At this moment, Investors are rushing to Myanmar because of the conviction that the route to the modernization is impossible to retreat. However, the country is still governed by the military regime. And, the reform has just begun. There are huge potential to be Factory of the world. But, it will take at least two years before they are ready. So, before then, you may invest in real estate? However, the price has gone up ridiculously expensive. Therefore, it is very difficult to identify proper projects to invest in Myanmar. On the other hand, Mongolians are tough negotiators and sometimes change their mind. Also, the country is landlocked and skilled labors are scarce and expensive. However, the country is very democratic and infrastructure is under developed with the proceeds from Chinggis Bond. There are many projects eager to look for investors as well. And, some of them can generate attractive return if they choose right partners. One of the investors who has boldly invested to Mongolia recently is Orix Corporation who has recently announced to purchase 16% of shares in Tenger Financial Group. Orix is very different from typical Japanese financial groups. They enjoy taking risks and have been challenging to create financial innovation in Japan since they have been founded about 50 years. The companys move to invest in Mongolia may show that there is significant value in the country. Please remember that the DNA of Orix is One step Ahead