Legislative Fiscal Bureau

One East Main, Suite 301 Madison, WI 53703 (608) 266-3847 Fax: (608) 267-6873 Email: fiscal.bureau@legis.wisconsin.gov Website: http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb

May 31, 2013

TO:

Senator Glenn Grothman Room 10 South, State Capitol Dave Loppnow, Program Supervisor

FROM:

SUBJECT: Examples of Potential Out-Year Commitment Amounts

At your request, I am providing examples of the potential commitment of state general fund revenues in the 2015-17 biennium based on varying budget assumptions. This office prepares estimates of the amount of revenue growth in the 2015-17 biennium that is already committed by the 2013-15 budget bill. In preparing these estimates, this office considers commitments under current law and the provisions of AB 40, and does not reflect any potential revenue growth or other appropriation changes. You asked that estimates be prepared that reflect Joint Finance actions through May 31 with three modifications. First, additional school aid funding of $50 million in 2013-14 and $125 million in 2014-15 is included. Second, tax reductions of $140 million in 2013-14 and three differing amounts in 2014-15 ($200 million, $280 million, and $325 million) are presented. Finally, revenue growth in 2015-16 and 2016-17 at 0%/0%, 1%/1%, 2%/2%, and 3%/3% is included. Over the last ten years, state tax revenues have grown at an annualized rate of 3%. The following table shows the estimated out-year commitment amount for each of the three requested funding scenarios under each of the four requested annual growth rates for general fund revenues. As shown in the table, under the 0%/0% growth rate approach, the out-year commitment ranges between $603 to $978 million. Negative numbers in the table indicate a surplus (a negative out-year commitment).

2015-17 Biennium Out-Year Commitment Estimates ($ in Millions)

K-12 Funding $50/$125 $50/$125 $50/$125 Tax Reductions $140/$200 $140/$280 $140/$325 Annual Growth Rates 1%/1% 2%/2% $153 393 528 -$297 -57 78

0%/0% $603 843 978

3%/3% -$747 -507 -372

I hope that this information is helpful. Please contact me if you have questions.

DL/sas

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