0

kt
y y e =
P
dP
kP
dt
=
k
/ dP dt
k
P
=
0
kt
P Pe =
M
logistic growth
model

P
remains M-P
( )
dP
kP M P
dt
=
( )
dP
kP M P
dt
=
( )
1
dP kdt
P M P
=

( )
1 A B
P M P P M P
= +

( )
1 A M P BP = +
1 AM AP BP = +
1 AM =
1
A
M
=
0 AP BP = +
AP BP =
A B =
1
B
M
=
1 1 1
dP kdt
M P M P
| |
+ =
|

\ .
( )
ln ln P M P Mkt C = +
ln
P
Mkt C
M P
= +

M
kt
e P P
0
=
P = P(t)
( ) ( ) ( ) t P B A AM t P = + 0 1
Mkt C
P
e
M P
+
=

Mkt C
M P
e
P

=
1
Mkt C
M
e
P

=
1
Mkt C
M
e
P

= +
( )
dP
kP M P
dt
=
( )
1
dP kdt
P M P
=

1 1 1
dP kdt
M P M P
| |
+ =
|

\ .
( )
ln ln P M P Mkt C = +
ln
P
Mkt C
M P
= +

M
1
Mkt C
M
P
e

=
+
1
C Mkt
M
P
e e

=
+

C
Let A e

=
( )
1
Mk t
M
P
Ae

=
+
Mkt C
P
e
M P
+
=

Mkt C
M P
e
P

=
1
Mkt C
M
e
P

=
1
Mkt C
M
e
P

= +
( )
1
Mk t
M
P
Ae

=
+










( )
1
Mk t
M
P
Ae

=
+
100 M =
0
10 P =
10
23 P =
( )
1
Mk t
M
P
Ae

=
+
100 M =
0
10 P =
10
23 P =
0
100
10
1 Ae
=
+
100
10
1 A
=
+
10 10 100 A + =
10 90 A =
9 A =
A
( )
100
1 9
Mk t
P
e

=
+
100 M =
0
10 P =
10
23 P =
k
( )
100
1 9
Mk t
P
e

=
+
( )
100 10
100
23
1 9
k
e

=
+
1000
100
1 9
23
k
e

+ =
1000
77
9
23
k
e

=
1000
0.371981
k
e

=
1000 0.988913 k =
0.00098891 k =
0.1
100
1 9
t
P
e

=
+
( )
1
Mk t
M
P
Ae

=
+
0.1
100
1 9
t
P
e

=
+