Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Tart summaryJus It t
YOUTH FOR CLIMATE
CHANGE
Effects, Consequences and Mitigation
2009
"In every deliberation, we must consider the impact on the seventh generation... even if it
requires having skin as thick as the bark of a pine"‐Great Law of the Iroquois
2
INDEX
TOPIC PAGE
Introduction 4
History of the problem 4
Changes and effects 5
A case study: India 6
India centric effects 7
Mitigation 11
Conclusion 11
Exhibit 1 21
References 23
3
Introduction
Climate Change: “Change in the state of climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical
tests) by changes in the mean and/or by the variability in its properties, and that persists
for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over
time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity”. (Source IPCC
climate change 2007: synthesis report)
We, the fortunate ones have a life of luxury – a car for our travels, air‐conditioning for the heat and
cold, television for entertainment, cosmetics to look good and many such things. How many of us
realize that our fortitude is a bane for the environment and for the less privileged amongst us?
Such small activities that might look harmless to the user are, in fact, adding on to degrade the
world around us. Many of us have heard of changes in the weather patterns, natural disasters‐
hurricanes, cyclones‐that have killed many. It wouldn’t be completely wrong to say our earth is
undergoing a state of such rapid climatic change over such short span of time that it hasn’t seen in
years. One could argue, by saying that the earth has been through various climatic changes for
ages and that’s how the ages like the ice, platonic etc occurred. What is pertinent here is the span
of time encompassed by them. One occurred naturally and over millions of years whereas the
other over a very short period in time. In the following sections, the true nature of the present
climatic change will be discussed. The catastrophic outcomes, ways to overcome them will be
detailed in addition to a brief historical perspective.
History
The Climate change, as we know today has been observed and noted from the early 1990s.Since
then a lot of studies have been conducted in the direction which have helped us to know the
changes, causes, effects and consequences of the climate change. We have a lot of direct and
indirect evidences documented that point in this direction. For instance, the change in the mean
temperature of the earth has been confirmed from studies on the annual rings of tree trunks. The
rings which are a pointer to the growth of the trees suggest higher temperatures and increased
4
moisture levels. For example, researchers studying trees in Mongolia have found unusually high
growth rates during the last century indicating that temperatures were higher in this period.
There are two reasons that contribute to the change in the climate. One being the natural changes
that include volcanic eruptions change in orbital inclination of the earth, energy received from the
sun and other such causes. The second is the anthropogenic or the man‐made causes which
comprise mainly of the emission of green house gases (GHG) methane, nitrous oxide and carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide are emitted particularly by burning the fossil fuels
whereas methane and nitrous dioxide are mainly through agriculture.1
It is naturally not in our hands to undo or stop the natural variables that affect the climate. But,
what we can do to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic agents is quiet varied. In order for policy
makers, experts and students to understand scientifically and theoretically the changes happening
around us the Intergovernmental Panel For Climate Change (IPCC) was established under the
aegis of the world meteorological organization (WMO) and united nations environment
programme (UNEP).It was established in view to make people aware of the scientific reasons and
observations pertaining to the climatic changes.
To take a step further, let us analyze the changes that have occurred in the past few decades and
their causes. This would in turn help us in devising ways and means to mitigate their effects.
1
IPCC (2007). “Fourth Assessment Report. Working group I report.” p2, “Summary for Policy Makers”.
5
The Changes and its Effects
The effects of a climate change can be seen on a small (primary, regional) level and on a larger
(long range) scale. Let us see the long range changes that have been observed and recorded.
Table 1. Changes due to excess GHG and their effects
Climatic Changes Consequences
• Increasing temperatures in the Himalayas • Increasing ground instability in
and its surroundings since the 1970s and permafrost regions.
other major mountain ranges and • Increasing rock avalanches in mountain
(decreasing) snow‐covered peaks regions.
• Run‐offs and earlier spring peak discharge
in many glacier and snow‐fed rivers.
• This temperature rise is affecting the
• The ocean temperatures have risen and still frequency and intensity of phenomenon
are rising, as they have been absorbing like El‐Niño affects, causing hurricanes.
close to 80 percent of heat, added to the
global climatic system.
• The salinity of the sea water and the
oxygen content/level are being affected.
6
• There has been an increase of 0.74 °C in the • Rainfall and snowfall pattern have
global temperature in the last 100 years. changed on the global scale and have been
bordering on an extreme, more often than
This is more than 0.6°C from the third not.
assessment report. Since 1850, eleven of
• Changes in ecosystems/biological species
the twelve warmest periods on earth have
algae, plankton, fish and zooplankton.
been between 1995‐2006.
• The percentage of greenhouse gases has • Besides being the major cause for all the
increased drastically over the last few above changes.
years. Their recorded percentage has been
• Ocean has become more acidic, on account
higher than their percentages in the last
of it having absorbed the man‐made and
650,000 years. manufactured carbon dioxide. Ocean pH
has dropped by 0.1
(Refer table 2)
Table 2.GHG and their amount in the atmosphere
ppm‐ parts per million ppb‐parts per billion
(Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
Data shown in Table 1 and 2 have had an overall negative effect on employment, health, social
security, economic development and other parameters of human development dependent on
geography. In the next section a specific region is used as a case study. India is chosen as the
region
7
A case study:
INDIA
INDIA, a developing country is a vast country in many aspects and areas. It occupies an area of
3,287,240 km2 (seventh largest nation) with a coastal line of 7.517 km, has 17% of the world’s
population (second most populous). Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry, logging and
fishing account for 16.6% of the GDP in 2007, employed 60% of the total workforce. Industry
accounts for 27.6% of the GDP and employ 17% of the total workforce. With an average annual
GDP (gross development product) growth rate of 5.8% for the past two decades, the economy is
one of the most stable and the fastest growing in the world.
It has some of the world's most bio‐diversity based regions. It has a range of ecozones as in desert,
high mountains, highlands, tropical and temperate forests, swamplands, plains, grasslands, reverie
areas as well as island archipelago. It hosts three biodiversity hotspots: the Western Ghats, the
Eastern Himalayas, and the hilly ranges that straddle the India‐Myanmar border. These hotspots
have numerous endemic species. India's 3,166,414 square km shows a notable diversity of
habitats, with significant variations in rainfall, altitude, topography, and latitude. The region is also
heavily influenced by summer monsoons that cause major seasonal changes in vegetation and
habitat. Many of these species are in danger. It has more than 500 wildlife sanctuaries and 13
biosphere reserves. It has a forest area of 23 percent.75.5 million hectares of wasteland that can
be brought under cultivation with external efforts. It also has the Sunderbans, which are the
largest single block of tidal halophytic mangrove forest in the world.
There are 24 rivers in INDIA. Many of these rivers are snow‐fed vis‐à‐vis the Ganges from the
Himalayas. These rivers are impetuses to a large number of dams, embankments etc., which again
provide, amongst others, employment too. The water from these rivers or outlets, are used for
variety of other activities, including power generation, irrigation, cultivation etc.
Most of India’s power comes from coal with significant contributions from the solar and the wind
energy sectors. The emission of GHG on a global scale from India is 4.9%. Besides, energy
8
conservation has emerged as a major policy objective as a result of which, the Energy
Conservation Act 2001, was passed by the Indian Parliament in September 2001.
India has various government and non government organizations trying to make a difference to
the climate and mitigate the effects of the not so positive but rapid changes, . However, we have
not been able to tap the optimum potential of alternative sources of energy on account of poverty,
illiteracy and rising population. This is causing disparities across various cross sections of the
society, including its various regions and communities. This has avoidably added to the stress on
the economy of our country.
Effects of climate change on India: The present and future
As seen already the three main categories of impacts include
• Rise in sea level
• Impact on agriculture and related resources
• Occurence of extreme events.
According to the IPCC, the sea level in India is expected to rise at the rate of 2.4 mm per year. A
quick calculation tells us how that by 2050 the rise will be almost 38 cms.This would inundate low
lying areas, drown coastal marshes and wetlands, erode beaches, increase salinity of bays, rivers
and groundwater.
I conducted an online survey and a sample of 250 people from diverse backgrounds – students,
professors, common man, was considered (see Exhibit 1). This sample was asked to answer basic
questions on climate change to judge their awareness levels. Of the 250 who were asked about the
most obvious change that had occurred around them concerning climate,220 replied that the
summers were getting hot and the winters spanned for shorter time and also that the monsoons
were erratic.
9
Changes to India's annual monsoon are expected to result in severe droughts in some areas and
intense flooding in other parts of India. And the pattern would not be consistent. Besides, the
areas experiencing intense flooding in one season, could experience draught, the next season., as
has been the case in Rajasthan !! Scientists predict that by the end of this century the country will
experience a 3 to 5 degree Centigrade temperature increase, in addition to experiencing a 20%
rise during summer monsoon. As an example, the year 2005‐2006 saw excessive rainfalls in
Mumbai. The rainfall recorded was 3214 mm in 2005‐2006 which is a 50 percent increase from
the earlier monsoon seasons. Mumbai (which is group of islands interconnected by bridges) was
and still is, an island, with quite an amount of reclaimed land in almost all zones (i.e. Southern,
Northern, Eastern and Western coastal areas).
Citing another classic example of the negative effects of a climatic change… a category 5 cyclone,
as in, Cyclone 05B struck Orissa in 1999 displacing around 20 million people. A similar cyclone
struck Andhra Pradesh, in 1996, causing wide spread damage and destruction to property and
life..
In the east with the bordering country Bangladesh which has 46.4% of its population in the low‐
lying areas. If a flooding of higher magnitude than that has already occurred (bhola cyclone in
1970, 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, cyclone sidr in 2007) in the Ganges delta, there will be a large
influx of displaced people/refugees from the country inwards to India to the already densely
populated state of West Bengal. This would in turn out to be a security issue, apart from leading
to loss of lives, economic downturns, social and structural instability in addition to causing
further problems of rehabilitation and rebuilding of the affected area and people.
10
High flooding
Decrease in
More than a
agricultural
yield Billion people
and varied
ecosystems
Increased affected by
morbidity 2050
and mortality
Reduced
water
availability
Another area of concern on account of adverse climatic changes are the quantity and quality of the
crops, the livestock productivity, affected by floods, droughts and abnormal rise in mercury.This
has resulted in huge losses to the concerned identified growth sectors. To cite a not so pleasant
example, in the recent past, the erratic monsoons, have also lead to the suicide by farmers in the
district of vidarbha in Maharashtra.
Another area of major concern is Health, which this country has to tackle. With the growing
population, inadequate rural health centres, absence of dedicated para medical staff apart from
the inadequate sewage system, the percentage of people living below poverty line, have either
little or no means of getting proper health care facility, available to them. And, in the case of areas
which get flooded impact translates into the populace being affected by diseases like diarrhea,
malaria, leptosiclosis, to name a few. Getting added to the list of misery, are the unpleasant effects
of hot temperature, post floods, hitting the workforce heavily due to heat stress, cramps,
exhaustion and stroke. With possible in‐adequate or lack of proper food, the populace would be
devoid of required energy in their bodies / sturdy immune systems, to fight deceases. And yes,
11
this would also mean, chances of their contracting diseases viz., , respiratory problems and skin
diseases due to UV radiations, would be high.
Faunas and floras find it difficult to adapt to the rapid change. From studies conducted by the
central marine research institute (CMFRI) it is found that as many as 19 algae blooms have been
found in Indian waters in 1998‐2006, which are quite toxic. This has caused mass mortality in
fishes like the old saradines. In Orissa (satyabhaya beach under gahir matha sanctuary) hundreds
of olive ridley sea turtles were found dead. The changing weather and climatic patterns affect the
migration patterns of certain species of birds and animals. Their fertility too is affected thus
causing a decrease in their population. This ultimately, would lead to the extinction of migratory
birds !!
The foregoing was the statistics and the repercussions of the adverse climatic changes, on the
humans and the animal live stock. Another sector which would get impacted directly, due to the
foregoing, would be the tourism industry !! Detailing further, the tourism industry which
contributes heavily to the GDP of the nation is already undergoing a setback, due to the world
recession. And if such a negative trend continues, there would be a loss of 1,963,500 crores of
rupees by 2050. We might wonder as to how tourism would be impacted by the climatic changes,
across the globe !! Well, to put it simply, the melting of snow has hampered winter/snow tourism
in many places like the Himalayas coupled with the increasing probability of avalanches (rock or
otherwise). The natural disasters are affecting the infrastructure, cultural heritage both tangible
and intangible. E.g. the taj mahal is losing its sheen due to the acid rain that is caused due to
excessive amount of sulphur and carbon oxides in the atmosphere. The damage to infrastructure
like roads, railways due to landslides will also hamper mobility of goods, raw materials, people etc.
thus affecting production and growth. This has increased the level of run offs in high tropical
areas and has decreased in the low tropical regions.
12
“There is no doubt that young people today are more aware of
Environmental problems than my generation ever was. As this new
Generation comes of age; it faces the enormous challenge of solving
Global warming. … In order to fix this crisis, everyone needs to be
Involved. I have faith that young people have both the ability and
The enthusiasm to put a stop to global warming.”
Al Gore,
Former U.S. VicePresident,
Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize
“If you want to see a change, be the change”
M.K.Gandhi
Father of our Nation (India)
13
CLIMATE CHANGES
(Earth systems)
Climate Impacts
process and
drivers vulnerabi
lity
HUMAN SYSTEMS
Social economic perspective and
Development
MITIGATION
ADAPTION
Table 2 (SOURCE: IPCC climate change 2007: synthesis report)
14
Mitigation
Mitigation is the reduction of the GHG gases produced anthropogenically. The task ahead of us is
not only to reduce the present release of GHG’s but also stabilize the effect of gases that have been
accumulated through years. According to the stern review, it is seen that GHG emissions are
directly proportional to the GDP of the nation under consideration.Since, India being a developing
nation its GHG emission is extremely low compared to the developed countries. It is impossible to
nullify the effects of GHG gases or to reduce their release in the atmosphere to zero but what can
be done is reduce it to a safe level, wherever possible. A level of sustenance has to be reached. The
development of a countries economy is based on the development of its industries. And this is
directly proportional to the availability of generous amount of fossil fuels, coal burnt to produce
energy. Thus GHG emission and GDP have a linear co relation.
According to the Kaya identity;
C =(C/E) * (E/Y) * (Y/N) * N
C‐Carbon emissions
E‐Energy use
Y‐Gross domestic Product
N‐Population
(C/E=Carbon Intensity of Energy Systems)
(E/Y=Energy Intensity of Density)
(Y/N=GDP Per Capita)
15
It is seen that population decrease or GDP decrease is not technically possible for a country as vast
and developing as India. Thus the only option is decreasing of carbon intensity and energy density
of GDP to compensate for the increase in GDP and population.
It would be considered wise to check the rate of growth of carbon emission. India would have to
first decrease the rate to zero such that the emission remains constant then decrease it further so
that carbon emission decreases. It would be pertinent here to note that it is not enough that India
checks her carbon emission but the developed nations whose emissions are much higher than the
developing countries should attach greater value to the need to reduce it. Otherwise, the burden of
carbon emission now will affect the future generations, across the world. This would only cause
India’s poverty scenario to worsen because of the add‐on effect due to the emissions of other
countries.
Also, while some of the energy savings are due to conscious utilization of resources the
negative side has to do with human drudgery. These include compulsory energy savings” by
the poor due to deprivation. If India is committed to human development, poverty
eradication should take place. This may result in an increased energy use. This may be
considered a due right of the poor, even if it increases India’s GHG emissions. So this
increase should not be accounted for in the inclusion of unnecessary GHG emission
Regardless of the choices we make to mitigate climate change, some warming will still occur and
we will have to find ways to adapt to the adverse effects it imposes. It is estimated by the UNFCCC
that “tens of billions of dollars” of additional investment and financial flows would be required for
adaptation by 2030, with some researchers placing the figure as high as US$50‐170 billion. The
action plan is to, draw up adaptation strategy and roadmap and practices specifically focused on
desertification, alpine environments, and protected areas need to be improved.
The mitigation can take place in three stages; the primary, secondary and tertiary stages.
The primary stage is of the highest importance and consists of Government policies, laws; inter
governmental co‐operation, international climate organizations and the other governing bodies.
This will have a long term benefit which may or may not be found as soon as they are
implemented.
16
The secondary stage consists of the influential public figures, mass media and other NGOs and
fractions like the policy framers and the heads of various industries. A fantastic example here
would be the noble peace prize winner Al Gore. In, India a public figure respected by everyone like
DR.A.P.J.Abdul Kalam could be included into mass campaigns.
The tertiary stage is the change which has to be brought about by the individuals of the societies.
One must not consider it as “just” an individual contribution. When millions around the country
and the world make even a small change to their lifestyle, it adds up to a lot in the long run. One
must not forget, the earth is our home and our only home.
Economic reforms,
subsidy removal
and joint venture
in capital goods
Forestation and
development of
wastelands
Promotion of
renewable energy
sources (befouls like
atrophy)
Government
policies
Emphasis on
energy
conservation
Abatement of air
pollution
Fuel substitution
policies
17
As youth of the country, we are the freshest and the most active of the minds inhabiting the nation.
As of 2001 the youth population formed 42 percentage of the population. We are strong
quantitatively but we must become qualitatively smart and effective towards our home‐the earth.
Though, the required dynamism is there in the form of young energetic minds, ever ready to go for
the action, the experience of elders and the seasoned players would help us getting to the ultimate
goal!!
The 3 R’s Theory:
Let us begin with the three R’s of personal mitigation of climate change: Realize, React and
Reach.
This must be the three‐point agenda that must become the dictum of every youth in the country
and around the world.
Realize
One must realize the changes that are happening around us and reflect on why these changes
occur. Reading and analyzing reports by various government/non‐government organizations is
the key here. Once we realize the level of changes that are occurring around us and their long and
short term effects it would inspire us into making our home a better place for us, our future and
for people around us.
React
Once the analysis is done, it is time to get into action on a personal level first and then
subsequently convert these into mass movement with the desired effect. There is no such thing as
a free lunch. We won’t get a change if we don’t make a change or ask for it. And this is a collective
action problem. The best way to tackle this is by introducing a policy change i.e. influencing
policies of the government. But before that one of the most difficult things that have to be done, is
to spread awareness amongst the populace. Once we make people aware of the problems, effects
and inspire them, collectively we can do a lot of good.
18
Reach
Youth – For a youth movement of this magnitude, it is time for the youth to get going and
make the opening statement. A group of individuals can get together to reach out and make
banners, short movies, hold peaceful protests and publicize the issue on a national scale.
They will help you connect and go public. Formal and informal events can be conducted
across the city by youths. A day a month could be dedicated as the toxic waste (electrical,
chemical etc) that could be dumped by an individual to the youth centers which will then
be handed to the government for safe disposal. A marathon like a “running for a change”
could be introduced where the need for change and for promotion of going green should be
promoted. Promotion of ideas like Usage of public transport, walking or cycling, flying
infrequently or only when required. Eat less meat, use (livestock gives 18% of GHG
emissions), organic food.
Media ‐ The media is one of the main tools for mass communication as its reach is far‐flung.
A public figure that connects to people could be used as the face of the campaign.
Alternatively, a mascot or an influential cartoon‐guy could preach the messages of saving
our climate like Popeye did to influence us as kids into eating spinach!! (an example is
given below)
Calvin and Hobbes (Cartoon strip) by Bill Watterson
Lobbying and challenging the government to act in a particular manner and inspiring
policy changes pertaining to nature is a very effective way. Initiate peaceful marches across
the country on a single day forming a network that would force the government to make
changes. This also includes Engaging with policy makers and in the decision making
19
process. A request to include a youth into major government policy forming team so as to
connect to what the society at large wants is a fantastic way to get going.
Selecting a project idea like planting of a 100 samples on a day ,maintaining and caring for
them, conducting awareness classes in schools, universities (catch them young!!),
implement it and celebrate its success. On a personal level, one of the strongest ways of
informing fellow youths and making a change through innovation in technologies and
making a difference was by keeping the theme of our college yearly festivals/techfests to be
climate change. It made an extreme difference as new innovative low‐cost methods were
installed in the college and nearby facilities.
Conducting concerts from high‐profile bands, performers in promoting the message like
the live 8 concert. Message through music through people we grow up idolizing is a
psychologically very effective way to make a difference.
As a team we must be motivated by each other, given equal rights and opportunities, should be
open to changes, be brave to accept criticisms and work on the shortcomings, understanding of
goals, transparent system of operation, be creative, have the ability to wipe out the problem by
making an impact on the emotional side of the people rather than the technical aspect alone, keen
sense of love for nature and humanity and a sense of responsibility.
Keep a timeline for your projects and ideally get an elder experienced mentor who would help you
in the technical aspects and would externally monitor your progress. Monitor and evaluate your
personal and groups progress. It is not just a onetime effort, make sure the changes you have
made continues and has the desired effect. Else, it is of not much use, in driving projects, without
the required support.
Networking forms another major part. It includes getting together with like‐minded people to
become a larger more powerful medium. Coalitions with other similar organizations are extremely
helpful. Forming a nationwide grid where ideas, plans are discussed and implemented and which
would get you support from a wide variety of people will be useful to spread your message. This
20
would help you in overcoming any difficulties that might have cropped up at any juncture in your
fight for the earth.
Since India is a land of varied languages and regional difference, the group must essentially consist
of people from different economic, social backgrounds. We must transcend all differences and
work as one to save the world around us.
Charity Begins at Home
As they say, a good start is half the work done. Do you know that every person in this world has a
carbon footprint on the face of the earth? And do you know that more than 50% of that footprint is
either because of carelessness or due to lack of awareness?
Presented below is a checklist which every common man can follow at home to reduce his carbon
footprint by more than 50%
• Unplug your mobile phone as soon as it is charged. We all have a tendency to leave our phones
on charge for a considerable period of time and that is silently killing Mother Earth
• Defrost your refrigerator regularly. According to a study, refrigerators’ contribution to
household carbon emission is one of the highest
• Always use the washing machine in full load
• Use power saving lamps wherever possible
(http://www.carbonfootprint.com)
Efforts are already on in other countries to make people aware of carbon emissions and their
effect on climate change. In fact, the following website
http://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx allows every person to calculate the damage
he/she is causing every day and provides ways to neutralize it.
Conclusion
21
The consequences of our ignorance at first and then the inertia to change has brought us to a
pedestal where climate changes can no more be denied as a myth. It is there and we are seeing and
feeling the repercussions, day in and day out. Now, instead of playing the blame games and also
instead of basking in the glory of short‐term comforts in lieu of long‐term safety we must act right
now. We must act just like how we would if our own homes were on fire. Get inspired and inspire
others to follow the path of sustainable development. Now is the chance, and the only change, to
rebuild our homes so that what we leave behind is something our future generations will be proud
of.
22
Exhibit 1:
QUESTIONNAIRE:
1) What according to you is climate change?
2) What do you think are the causes of climate change?
3) Which medium has been most useful in making you aware of the above?
Print media
Electronic media
Friends/family/people in general
Educational syllabus
Others (please specify)
4) Have you seen/felt/been affected by the effects of climate change. If yes, please elaborate.
5) Have you seen a change in the environment in general around yo?If yes, please elaborate.
6) Given a chance what would you do for the environment at large?
7) On a personal level have you done anything in this direction?
8) Do you know what green economy is?
23
9) Do you care about the various environmental organizations? Are you aware of the change they
bring about to the world?
10) Which mass campaign, according to you, has been the most successful in the last decade? (the
campaign need not necessarily be an environmental one)
24
References:
o www.wikipedia.org
2) http://www.docm.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/english.html
3) http://www.whyfiles.org/080global_warm/4.html"
4) http://envfor.nic.in
5) IPCC fourth assessment report (2007) , IPCC climate change 2007 (synthesis report)
6) Climate change: youth guide to action (www.climate.takingitglobal.org)
7) India’s GHG emission scenarios (P.R.shukla)
8) Current science
9) OECD Climate change: India’s perceptions, positions, policies and possibilities (jyoti.j and kirith
Parikh)
10) climate change and national security (Joshua.w.busby)
11) Economic impact of climate change on Mumbai (rakesh kumar, parag jawale and shalini tandon)
11) Greenpeace.org
25