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digital: beyond the hype

10.04.2011

The future is already here--its just not very evenly distributed.

William Gibson

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_tWgSlpwB5zc/TSFCNyjoonI/AAAAAAAAC9A/ND5neOEMTnc/s1600/Hype%2Bcycle.jpg

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The Internet: nearly everyone, nearly everywhere

defining digital
communications, commerce, and culture 3.0

connecting disintermediating decoupling remixing play

connecting

Marshal McLuhan

The medium is the message.

Media: a technology that affects society not by its content but by its characteristics.

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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no content...

...but has social effect

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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media mass media Receiver

Sender

information or data

Receiver

Receiver

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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social: the interaction of humans with other humans media: technology used to store and deliver information or data

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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social media
Participant

Participant

information or data

Participant

Participant

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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Social Media:

technologies that facilitate conversations

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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A (somewhat incomplete) Timeline of Social Media

USENET 1979 pneumatic post 1865

not to scale

listserv 1986

Napster 1999

flickr 2004

SecondLife 2003 postal service Persia, 550BC radio 1891 ARPANET 1969 The Palace 1994 The WELL 1985 Wikipedia 2001 Friendster 2002 twitter 2006

Facebook 2003

@
email 1966 BBS 1978 IRC 1988 Third Voice 1999 MySpace 2003 YouTube 2005 telephone ~1890 telegraph France, 1792 MUD1 1978 CompuServe 1969 MoveOn 1998 epinions 1999 del.icio.us 2003 Blogger 1999

digg 2004

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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oral tradition

printing

telegraph

radio

TV

Internet

media reach

backchannel disruption

audience

response reach

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

time

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disintermediating
225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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smith, 1483

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c c c p

p
p factory worker, 1860

c
c c c

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c c c

c
c

digital creator, 2010

c c

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$5,972

$3,497

$59,704

smith, 1483

factory worker, 1860

web designer, 2010

all salary numbers adjusted to 2010 dollars

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decoupling

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remixing

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miles davis, France, 1967

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play

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this changes everything...

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why now?
changes in communication, commerce, and culture

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source: http://www.bullcitymutterings.com/2009_11_01_archive.html

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Total US Music Sales

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/companies/napster_music_industry/

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Global e-Book Sales Figures

http://idpf.org/about-us/industry-statistics#Additional_Global_eBook_Sales_Figures

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Advertising budget priorities shifting....

source: http://www.netx.com/blog/displayads/display-advertising/

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Advertising Spending Forecast

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Local advertising spending

Local advertising spending shifting to digital

source: http://theadzdr.com/2010/03/local-online-advertising/

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source: http://lifehacker.com/5482227/what-do-you-buy-online-vs-in-stores

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DRAFT

digital: impact

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Mommy, why cant I pause the TV?

Ava, age 5

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1. Control is shifting

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http://www.newyorker.com/humor/issuecartoons/2011/05/16/cartoons_20110509#slide=1

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2. Were moving from atoms to bits

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However...

the 79% of For Americans who are online, in addition to Americans ages 18-39, the internet ranks as a top source of information for most of the local subjects studied in the survey.

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The old model of journalism involved news organizations taking revenue from one social transaction the selling of real estate, cars and groceries or job hunting, for example, and using it to monitor civic life covering city councils and zoning commissions and conducting watchdog investigations.

3.57Were moving from real time to my time

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4. Were routing around hierarchies

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5. Were always on, always connected

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Publicy will replace privacy. Privacy will appear quaint, like wearing gloves and veils in church. Stowe Boyd, social networks specialist, analyst, activist, blogger, futurist and researcher; president of Microsyntax.org, a non-profit and director of 301Works.org Millennials will routinely engage in ubiquitous social networking, having seen that competitive edge it brings them in business and politics. It will be the norm in personal relationships. I wish I could keep up with them. Craig Newmark, founder and customer service representative, Craigslist, former software engineer and programmer at companies such as JustInTime Solutions, Bank of America and IBM They will not have grown out of being ambient broadcasters, because being ambient broadcasters will have become the norm when they are totally in charge. Jeff Branzburg, consultant with Teaching Matters, Inc.

Quote Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media//Files/Reports/2010/PIP_Future_of_Internet_%202010_social_relations.pdf

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6. All media is now social

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7. Knowing is now a group activity

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8. All jobs are now digital

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The gross revenues of the third-party gaming services industry were approximately $3.0 billion in 2009, most of which was captured in the developing countries where these services were produced. In comparison, the global coffee market, on which many developing countries are highly dependent, was worth over $70 billionbut only $5.5 billion was captured by the developing countries that produced the coffee beans. This suggests that the virtual economy can have a significant impact on local economies despite its modest size.

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education next
teaching and learning in the digital age

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In 2008, Americans consumed information for about 1.3 trillion hours, an average of almost 12 hours per day. Consumption totaled 3.6 zettabytes and 10,845 trillion words, corresponding to 100,500 words and 34 gigabytes for an average person on an average day.

Source: How Much Information? 2009 Report on American Consumers. Bohn and Short, 2009

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Students starting school this year may be part of the last generation for which going to college means packing up, getting a dorm room, and listening to tenured professors, Undergraduate education is on the verge of a radical reordering. Colleges, like newspapers, will be torn apart by new ways of sharing information enabled by the Internet.
A Virtual Revolution is Brewing for Colleges. Zephyr Teachout. September 13, 2009

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While some may see at this the end of the great college era, it is, in reality, the beginning of an entirely new opportunity. Over the coming years we will be witnessing the grand transformation of colleges and universities. Rethinking Colleges from the Ground Up. Thomas Frey. February 25th, 2011

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http://www.inside.iastate.edu/2004/1008/enrollment.shtml

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Source: National Association of Colleges and Employers Job Outlook 2011

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http://www.insideworkplacewellness.com/2011/03/ten-workplace-trends-that-are-impacting.html

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Its always been about the talent. And in the future, that will be even more critical as agencies will be staffed with a new breed of listeners, students of the human condition, data interpreters, and idea nurturers.
Lisa Donohue, CEO, Publicis Groupes Starcom USA (Advertising Age, What the Media Agency of the Future Will Look Like, September 2010

225 e. redwood street baltimore, md 21202 410.837.5555 www.idfive.com

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lifelong experiential accelerated developmental individual networked

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Approach to date*

or

or

*with some exceptions

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You ain't seen nothing yet.

Fred Hapgood, technology author and consultant, moderator of the Nanosystems Interest Group at MIT in the 1990s, writes for Wired, Discover and other tech publications

Quote Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media//Files/Reports/2010/PIP_Future_of_Internet_%202010_social_relations.pdf

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lets talk!
scarton@ubalt.edu