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http://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/09/24?print
only an apparent increase since more people and property are located in the pathway of floods, storms and fires, and droughts effect far more people than they used to. But if that were the sole cause, then disasters for tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanoes, which are not associated with climate change, would be skyrocketing in frequency and intensity too. And while there has been a comparatively small blip in losses associated with these disasters, global warming-related incidences and costs dwarfs them. Bottom lineextreme weather events are happening more frequently, costing more, and are more severe. And this is exactly what science tells us will happen in a warming world. Lets connect a few more dots in the area of national security and human welfare. In the Middle East, one of the worst long-term droughts in modern times is being cited as a possible contributor to the Syrian civil war. Epochal long-term droughts and water shortages also preceded and contributed to the conflict in Darfur and fueled in key ways what became known as the Arab Spring. And its not just Africa and the Middle East. Admiral Samuel J. Locklear the III, Commander of the US Pacific Forces, recently said that climate change is the biggest threat to security in that region. A recent National Research Council report commissioned by the CIA found that climate change related events like droughts, famines, floods, heat waves and extreme storms would cause humanitarian and strategic consequences for which the US was unprepared. It was issued 10 days late because Hurricane Sandy occurred on the day of its scheduled release. Irony can be cruel. IPCC reports have been low-balling projected sea levels from the beginning, and it appears the next one will be excessively conservative as well. Essentially, modeling assumptions and the models themselves lead to projections that have failed to keep pace with well reality. One of the key assumptions is that we will not burn all the fossil fuels presently counted as proven reserves. So far, this has proven to be a bad assumption. In fact, since we are now exploiting unconventional oil reserves and lower quality coal seams, were emitting more carbon per unit of energy gained, and weve increased the amount of recoverable reserves. A recent paper by James Hansena man who has been right on climate change more often and longer than anyone in the fieldexamines the consequences of burning more carbon than the IPCC models suggest. The paper also considers the effect of slow-feedbacks, and looks at paleo-data from periods when similar amounts of carbon were being released by volcanic and tectonic activity albeit at a much slower rate that what humans are doing today. The conclusions are literally frightening. For example, Hansen says:
Burning all fossil fuels would warm land areas on average about 20C (36F) and warm the
poles a stunning 30C (54F). This would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. We cant burn all the fossil fuels in the ground without destroying the Earth as we know it. We know that the situation is already bad and it will get worse the longer we continue to burn it. These are simple dots to connectwe need to transition off of fossil fuels, and we need to do it soon.
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http://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/09/24?print
So to paraphrase Winston Churchill: If not now, when? If not us, who? These dots are connected, and they form a coherent whole and that whole leads straight to the most devastating tragedy humanity has ever faced. The bad news is time is running out; the good news is, we still control a measure of our future. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License John Atcheson is author of the novel, A Being Darkly Wise, an eco-thriller and Book One of a Trilogy centered on global warming. His writing has appeared in The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Baltimore Sun, the San Jose Mercury News and other major newspapers. Atchesons book reviews are featured on Climateprogess.org. more John Atcheson
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