A n n u al Co m m o d i t i es Resear ch M ag az i n e ( Fo r p r i vat e ci r cu l at i o n o n l y)

O U T L O O K 2 0 1 3
C MMO DITY O
St ay ah ead o f m ar k et s
im Roger, the commodity guru, has rightly said Buy Commodities Now, Or You'll
Hate yourself later. The notable return from commodities in past few years has
J
proved that he is right. This hard asset class has outshined other asset classes and
has generated a handsome return at the time when the world is facing tough time.
Subsequent to the turmoil of the second half of 2011, markets were relatively stable in
2012 as fear of severe economic crisis faded away. However the absolute efforts of key
central banks and governments for a solidifying recovery from ongoing crisis,
economic growth was not as per the expectation, especially in the developed nations.
Various interest rate cuts and bailouts bond purchases failed to bring the confidence in
the economy to some extent. Economic crisis, events, elections in major countries and
natural disasters kept investors on their toes throughout the year and they had to
churn their portfolio on regular basis. Victory of Mr. Obama gave some stability later on
in commodities prices apart from other financial markets.
Demand continued to rise in the essential commodities whereas slowed
manufacturing activities slashed the physical demand for some commodities to some
extent. But investment demand in commodities continued to increase terrifically,
especially of ETF's due to its easy usability.
The number of natural disasters such as hurricane, storm, flood, drought, earthquakes
etc. which were the other costliest affair in 2012, sent some commodities prices on
record level, particularly agri commodities. It sent food inflation on alarming level. In
2013, we expect flat movements with little upside in agri commodities.
In the year gone by, currency acted as a catalyst; the increase in Gold price is the
burning example in this regard. Due to sharp depreciation in Indian currency, gold
made a historic high in the domestic market whereas in the International market it was
far behind from its historic high of $1915. It made import costlier, especially pricey
crude oil, fertilizers, medicines, iron ore etc; increase in prices made a big hole in
consumer's pocket. From here in 2013, rupee is most likely to trade in the range of 50-
60. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions may remain a wild card for the energy counter,
though we are expecting a range for this counter on mix fundamentals whereas natural
gas demand supply equilibrium is expected to be moderately tighten, which can give
some strength to the prices. Again silver is likely to outperform gold this year. Bulls may
continue to reign in some base metals. Though we do not expect any major Chinese
stimulus in early 2013 but we expect big move in the later part of the year.
If global growth sustains above the mark of 3% in 2013, then we may see some rebound
coming in commodities, especially in the second half and vice a versa. China, which is
playing an outsized role in global commodity market, is slowing down and
restructuring of growth model may weigh on commodities prices ahead. Its growth for
2013 is projected to be 7.4%, lowest in 15 years. If economic activities improves then it
will cushion up commodities in 2013.
Bull Run doesn't see the end in sightyet but the pace has slowed down. Momentum
and carry were the winning strategy for various asset classes. Wild swings in some
commodities couldn't be denied hence frequent churning of portfolio is advised.
Jagannadham Thunuguntla Head-Research
Commodity Fundamental Team
Vandana Bharti AVP Commodity Research
Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst
Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst
Shivanand Upadhyay Content Editor (Hindi)
Support Team
Kamla Devi Content Editor
Pramod Chhimwal Graphic Designer
Simmi Chibber Research Executive
Corporate Office
11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.
Tel: 91-11-30111000, Extn. 6976, 6954, 6944
Fax: 91-11-25754365
SMC Comtrade Ltd.
11/ 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005
Website: www.smctradeonline.com
Investor Grievance : smc@smcindiaonline.com
Printed and Published on behalf of
Disclaimer: SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus
(DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at
www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section
titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus.
This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn't construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed
to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives,
directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular
investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/ s or any entity/ s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The value of, and income from
investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/ her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates,
officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or
(b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with
respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.
Page No.
1. Performance of 2012, FOMC & ECB
meeting schedule 2013 & Seasonality Index 4
2. Commodity performance 2012 5
3. Asset Class comparison 2012 6
4. Span of Price Movement 7
5. Fundamental Calls performance in 2012 8-9
6. Economic indicators 10-11
7. Base Metals and Bullions production graph 12
8. Currency Movements 13
9. Quantitative Easing & FOMC Statements 14
10. Flashback 2012 & Outlook 2013
i. Bullions 16-19
ii. Energy 20-23
iii. Base Metals 25-31
iv. Spices 33-37
v. Oilseeds 38-44
vi. Other Commodities 45-49
11. Crop Calendar 50
(Vandana Bharti)
Happy Investing in Commodities
Content COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
im Roger, the commodity guru, has rightly said Buy Commodities Now, Or You'll
Hate yourself later. The notable return from commodities in past few years has
J
proved that he is right. This hard asset class has outshined other asset classes and
has generated a handsome return at the time when the world is facing tough time.
Subsequent to the turmoil of the second half of 2011, markets were relatively stable in
2012 as fear of severe economic crisis faded away. However the absolute efforts of key
central banks and governments for a solidifying recovery from ongoing crisis,
economic growth was not as per the expectation, especially in the developed nations.
Various interest rate cuts and bailouts bond purchases failed to bring the confidence in
the economy to some extent. Economic crisis, events, elections in major countries and
natural disasters kept investors on their toes throughout the year and they had to
churn their portfolio on regular basis. Victory of Mr. Obama gave some stability later on
in commodities prices apart from other financial markets.
Demand continued to rise in the essential commodities whereas slowed
manufacturing activities slashed the physical demand for some commodities to some
extent. But investment demand in commodities continued to increase terrifically,
especially of ETF's due to its easy usability.
The number of natural disasters such as hurricane, storm, flood, drought, earthquakes
etc. which were the other costliest affair in 2012, sent some commodities prices on
record level, particularly agri commodities. It sent food inflation on alarming level. In
2013, we expect flat movements with little upside in agri commodities.
In the year gone by, currency acted as a catalyst; the increase in Gold price is the
burning example in this regard. Due to sharp depreciation in Indian currency, gold
made a historic high in the domestic market whereas in the International market it was
far behind from its historic high of $1915. It made import costlier, especially pricey
crude oil, fertilizers, medicines, iron ore etc; increase in prices made a big hole in
consumer's pocket. From here in 2013, rupee is most likely to trade in the range of 50-
60. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions may remain a wild card for the energy counter,
though we are expecting a range for this counter on mix fundamentals whereas natural
gas demand supply equilibrium is expected to be moderately tighten, which can give
some strength to the prices. Again silver is likely to outperform gold this year. Bulls may
continue to reign in some base metals. Though we do not expect any major Chinese
stimulus in early 2013 but we expect big move in the later part of the year.
If global growth sustains above the mark of 3% in 2013, then we may see some rebound
coming in commodities, especially in the second half and vice a versa. China, which is
playing an outsized role in global commodity market, is slowing down and
restructuring of growth model may weigh on commodities prices ahead. Its growth for
2013 is projected to be 7.4%, lowest in 15 years. If economic activities improves then it
will cushion up commodities in 2013.
Bull Run doesn't see the end in sightyet but the pace has slowed down. Momentum
and carry were the winning strategy for various asset classes. Wild swings in some
commodities couldn't be denied hence frequent churning of portfolio is advised.
Jagannadham Thunuguntla Head-Research
Commodity Fundamental Team
Vandana Bharti AVP Commodity Research
Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst
Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst
Shivanand Upadhyay Content Editor (Hindi)
Support Team
Kamla Devi Content Editor
Pramod Chhimwal Graphic Designer
Simmi Chibber Research Executive
Corporate Office
11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.
Tel: 91-11-30111000, Extn. 6976, 6954, 6944
Fax: 91-11-25754365
SMC Comtrade Ltd.
11/ 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005
Website: www.smctradeonline.com
Investor Grievance : smc@smcindiaonline.com
Printed and Published on behalf of
Disclaimer: SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus
(DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at
www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section
titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus.
This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn't construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed
to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives,
directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular
investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/ s or any entity/ s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The value of, and income from
investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/ her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates,
officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or
(b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with
respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.
Page No.
1. Performance of 2012, FOMC & ECB
meeting schedule 2013 & Seasonality Index 4
2. Commodity performance 2012 5
3. Asset Class comparison 2012 6
4. Span of Price Movement 7
5. Fundamental Calls performance in 2012 8-9
6. Economic indicators 10-11
7. Base Metals and Bullions production graph 12
8. Currency Movements 13
9. Quantitative Easing & FOMC Statements 14
10. Flashback 2012 & Outlook 2013
i. Bullions 16-19
ii. Energy 20-23
iii. Base Metals 25-31
iv. Spices 33-37
v. Oilseeds 38-44
vi. Other Commodities 45-49
11. Crop Calendar 50
(Vandana Bharti)
Happy Investing in Commodities
Content COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Performance & Seasonality Index
Seasonality Index
We have used the annual average method, which generates a
seasonal pattern and is helpful in predicting the future prices of the
commodity. This seasonal price index is derived by calculating the
annual average price, and then by expressing the price for each
month during the year as a percent of the annual average. Here, the
data used to derive the seasonal price patterns are the monthly
prices. In every chart, line chart is showing the monthly price
movement of particular commodity in 2012 while bar chart is
showing the seasonal trend. We hope that this will guide investors
to decide the proper time to invest into any particular commodity.
Commodity Performance

4
Performance Of Calls Given In Our
Annual Magazine Commodity Outlook 2012
Range
(Annual Magz. '12) Low* High*
2012 2012
Gold (COMEX) 1400-2100 1528.20 1798.10
Gold (MCX) 24000-33000 27170.00 32464.00
Silver(COMEX) 23-50 26.07 37.48
Silver(MCX) 38000-75000 51000.00 65723.00
Crude Oil (NYMEX) 75-125 77.28 110.55
Crude Oil (MCX) 4200-6000 4448.00 5635.00
Natural gas(NYMEX) 2.50-4.80 1.90 3.93
Natural gas (MCX) 155-230 99.50 217.20
Copper 320-500 397.00 463.00
Zinc 85-120 96.30 115.20
Lead 85-150 99.10 127.40
Nickel 750-1350 848.00 1086.80
Aluminium 80-130 100.60 117.60
Turmeric 4000-7000 3336.00 6748.00
Pepper 27000-45000 28810.00 45880.00
Cummin 13000-20000 11275.00 16975.00
Chilli 4000-8500 4430.00 6748.00
Cardamom 550-1200 570.00 1508.00
Chana 2500-4200 3020.00 4999.00
Kapas 660-950 801.00 1184.00
Wheat 1050-1350 1111.00 1705.00
Sugar 2600-3500 2635.00 3672.00
Soybean (NCDEX) 2000-3200 2257.00 5064.50
Soybean (CBOT) 1000-1500 1150.00 1794.75
RM Seed 2600-4800 3235.00 4538.00
Ref. Soy oil 600-810 611.50 817.00
CPO (MCX) 440-700 393.00 632.20
CPO (BMD) 2600-4200 2040.00 3655.00
* Up to 21 December 2012
World Interest Rates Of Key Central Banks At Present
Central banks Country Current interest rates Previous rates Date of change interest
Federal Reserve(FED) US 0.25% 1.00% 16-Dec-08
European Central Bank(ECB) Euro 0.75% 1.00% 5-Jul-12
Bank of England(BOE) England 0.50% 1.00% 5-Mar-09
Bank of Japan(BOJ) Japan 0.10% 0.10% 5-Oct-10
Reserve Bank of India(RBI) India 8.00% 8.50% 17-Apr-12
People Bank of China(PBOC) China 6.00% 6.31% 5-Jul-12
Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA) Australia 3.00% 3.25% 3-Dec-12
Brazil Central Bank(BACEN) Brazil 7.25% 7.50% 10-Oct-12
FOMC & ECB Meeting Schedule For 2013
Months 2013 FOMC meeting ECB meeting
January 30th 10th & 24th
February NA 7th & 21st
March 20th 7th & 21st
April NA 4th & 18th
May 1st 2nd & 16th
June 19th 6th & 20th
July 31st 4th & 18th
August NA 1st
September 18th 5th & 19th
October 30th 2nd & 17th
November NA 7th & 21st
December 18th 5th & 19th
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

5
-31.97
-25.15
-25.06
-7.76
-2.23
0.84
9.19
10.73
11.39
11.65
12.15
13.53
13.73
18.63
22.12
23.27
25.30
31.07
32.33
42.57
-40.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
Crude palm oil (BMD)
Crude palm oil(MCX)
Chilli
Jeera
Ref. Soy oil
Gur
RM Seed
Turmeric
Mentha Oil
Sugar
Potato
Maize
Cotton oilseed cake
Pepper
Soyabean (CBOT)
Chana
Kapas
Wheat
Soyabean
Cardamom
Return Of Agri Commodities From 1st Jan '12 Till 14th Dec '12
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Return Of Bullions, Metals And Energy From 4th Jan '12 Till 14th Dec '12
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
% Change
% Change
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
8.16
4.91
14.24
14.68
12.28
20.18
-13.01
-10.73
11.62
12.14
5.22
9.82
2.61
7.14
10.63
14.45
10.96
15.36
-6.29
-2.25
- 15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
COMEX
LME Spot
MCX
COMEX
LME Spot
MCX
NYMEX
MCX
NYMEX
MCX
LME
MCX
LME
MCX
LME
MCX
LME
MCX
LME
MCX
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Performance & Seasonality Index
Seasonality Index
We have used the annual average method, which generates a
seasonal pattern and is helpful in predicting the future prices of the
commodity. This seasonal price index is derived by calculating the
annual average price, and then by expressing the price for each
month during the year as a percent of the annual average. Here, the
data used to derive the seasonal price patterns are the monthly
prices. In every chart, line chart is showing the monthly price
movement of particular commodity in 2012 while bar chart is
showing the seasonal trend. We hope that this will guide investors
to decide the proper time to invest into any particular commodity.
Commodity Performance

4
Performance Of Calls Given In Our
Annual Magazine Commodity Outlook 2012
Range
(Annual Magz. '12) Low* High*
2012 2012
Gold (COMEX) 1400-2100 1528.20 1798.10
Gold (MCX) 24000-33000 27170.00 32464.00
Silver(COMEX) 23-50 26.07 37.48
Silver(MCX) 38000-75000 51000.00 65723.00
Crude Oil (NYMEX) 75-125 77.28 110.55
Crude Oil (MCX) 4200-6000 4448.00 5635.00
Natural gas(NYMEX) 2.50-4.80 1.90 3.93
Natural gas (MCX) 155-230 99.50 217.20
Copper 320-500 397.00 463.00
Zinc 85-120 96.30 115.20
Lead 85-150 99.10 127.40
Nickel 750-1350 848.00 1086.80
Aluminium 80-130 100.60 117.60
Turmeric 4000-7000 3336.00 6748.00
Pepper 27000-45000 28810.00 45880.00
Cummin 13000-20000 11275.00 16975.00
Chilli 4000-8500 4430.00 6748.00
Cardamom 550-1200 570.00 1508.00
Chana 2500-4200 3020.00 4999.00
Kapas 660-950 801.00 1184.00
Wheat 1050-1350 1111.00 1705.00
Sugar 2600-3500 2635.00 3672.00
Soybean (NCDEX) 2000-3200 2257.00 5064.50
Soybean (CBOT) 1000-1500 1150.00 1794.75
RM Seed 2600-4800 3235.00 4538.00
Ref. Soy oil 600-810 611.50 817.00
CPO (MCX) 440-700 393.00 632.20
CPO (BMD) 2600-4200 2040.00 3655.00
* Up to 21 December 2012
World Interest Rates Of Key Central Banks At Present
Central banks Country Current interest rates Previous rates Date of change interest
Federal Reserve(FED) US 0.25% 1.00% 16-Dec-08
European Central Bank(ECB) Euro 0.75% 1.00% 5-Jul-12
Bank of England(BOE) England 0.50% 1.00% 5-Mar-09
Bank of Japan(BOJ) Japan 0.10% 0.10% 5-Oct-10
Reserve Bank of India(RBI) India 8.00% 8.50% 17-Apr-12
People Bank of China(PBOC) China 6.00% 6.31% 5-Jul-12
Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA) Australia 3.00% 3.25% 3-Dec-12
Brazil Central Bank(BACEN) Brazil 7.25% 7.50% 10-Oct-12
FOMC & ECB Meeting Schedule For 2013
Months 2013 FOMC meeting ECB meeting
January 30th 10th & 24th
February NA 7th & 21st
March 20th 7th & 21st
April NA 4th & 18th
May 1st 2nd & 16th
June 19th 6th & 20th
July 31st 4th & 18th
August NA 1st
September 18th 5th & 19th
October 30th 2nd & 17th
November NA 7th & 21st
December 18th 5th & 19th
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

5
-31.97
-25.15
-25.06
-7.76
-2.23
0.84
9.19
10.73
11.39
11.65
12.15
13.53
13.73
18.63
22.12
23.27
25.30
31.07
32.33
42.57
-40.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
Crude palm oil (BMD)
Crude palm oil(MCX)
Chilli
Jeera
Ref. Soy oil
Gur
RM Seed
Turmeric
Mentha Oil
Sugar
Potato
Maize
Cotton oilseed cake
Pepper
Soyabean (CBOT)
Chana
Kapas
Wheat
Soyabean
Cardamom
Return Of Agri Commodities From 1st Jan '12 Till 14th Dec '12
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Return Of Bullions, Metals And Energy From 4th Jan '12 Till 14th Dec '12
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
% Change
% Change
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
8.16
4.91
14.24
14.68
12.28
20.18
-13.01
-10.73
11.62
12.14
5.22
9.82
2.61
7.14
10.63
14.45
10.96
15.36
-6.29
-2.25
- 15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
COMEX
LME Spot
MCX
COMEX
LME Spot
MCX
NYMEX
MCX
NYMEX
MCX
LME
MCX
LME
MCX
LME
MCX
LME
MCX
LME
MCX
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Span Of Price Movement (Agro Commodities)
Span Of Price Movement (Metals & Energy)
COMMODITY EXCHANGE LIFE TIME HIGH LIFE TIME LOW 2012 HIGH* 2012 LOW*
Gold COMEX 1915.00 252.50 1798.10 1528.50
MCX 32464.00 5600.00 32464.00 27170.00
Silver COMEX 5035.00 194.50 3748.00 2607.00
MCX 73600.00 7551.00 65723.00 51000.00
Crude Oil MCX 6333.00 1626.00 5635.00 4448.00
NYMEX 147.27 9.75 110.55 77.28
Natural Gas MCX 591.80 99.50 217.20 99.50
NYMEX 15.78 1.04 3.93 1.90
Copper MCX 466.20 117.60 463.00 397.00
Aluminium MCX 151.50 62.20 117.60 100.60
Zinc MCX 208.30 49.85 115.20 96.30
Lead MCX 154.40 40.50 127.40 99.10
Nickel MCX 1416.00 442.30 1086.80 848.00
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
COMMODITY EXCHANGE LIFE TIME HIGH LIFE TIME LOW 2012 HIGH* 2012 LOW*
SPICES
OTHER COMMODITIES
OILSEEDS
Turmeric NCDEX 16350.00 1666.00 6748.00 3336.00
Jeera NCDEX 17520.00 4877.40 16975.00 11275.00
Chilli NCDEX 10970.00 1731.00 6748.00 4430.00
Pepper NCDEX 45880.00 5350.00 45880.00 28810.00
Cardamom MCX 2097.00 218.20 1508.00 570.00
Chana NCDEX 4999.00 1331.00 4999.00 3020.00
Wheat NCDEX 1705.00 662.00 1705.00 1111.00
Mentha Oil MCX 2564.80 342.00 2564.80 1111.00
Gur NCDEX 1323.00 361.40 1323.00 1030.00
Sugar NCDEX 3672.00 2635.00 3672.00 2635.00
Kapas NCDEX 1262.00 398.90 1184.00 801.00
Crude Palm Oil MCX 632.20 154.20 632.20 393.00
Crude Palm Oil BMD 4298.00 425.00 3655.00 2040.00
Soybean NCDEX 5064.50 1104.50 5064.50 2257.00
Soybean CBOT 1794.75 401.50 1794.75 1150.00
RM Seed NCDEX 4538.00 1586.25 4538.00 3235.00
Ref. Soy Oil NCDEX 817.00 337.70 817.00 611.50
* Closing till 14 December 2012
* Closing till 14 December 2012 Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Asset Class Comparison
Momentum And Carry Were The Winning Strategy For Various Asset Classes
Optimism on monetary easing and various steps to revive the ailing economy by major countries gave some confidence to investors and thus we
saw better return in the year 2012 as compared to 2011; but it is true that it was not a trouble-free year for investors.
Most of the year, the path of global growth shifted downwards and concerns about the sustainability of euro area government debt, elections in
many countries amid various natural disasters, raised the fear of multi dip recession. Downbeat economic indicators from advanced economy
also triggered selling. Other global engines of growth also softened. Not only growth slowed in China and India, even Canada and other countries
also witnessed slow down.
Despite the negative economic data's and other problems, buying returned as there was a firm belief that major countries would come with some
aggressive quantitative easing to rescue the economy. Confidence also returned into the market as it noticed serial quantitative easing in many
major countries. Many central banks loosened monetary policy, cutting interest rates or expanding unconventional policies and it triggered large
asset price reactions. The central banks of Brazil, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Israel, Korea, Philippines, United Kingdom, Euro zone, South
Africa and many more countries lowered their policy rates.
Low or negative yields on advanced economy government bonds spurred investors to search for investment opportunities that offered some
extra return. It resulted in surge in equity and other riskier asset. Equity prices also reacted strongly to the announcements of additional central
bank measures to support the economy. In 2011, capital outflow occurred in riskier assets and investors preferred to put their money into hard
and safe investment avenue. In 2012 trend was reverse, investors put their money in riskier assets associated with the performance of the
economy. All the key equity markets gave whopping return; Hang Seng, Nifty and DAX gave more than 20% return whereas US market also closed
the year in the positive territory. Strangely Chinese market gave negative return of more than 2.77%.
Victory of Obama was another buy trigger for the riskier asset classes. US treasury, which gave more than 18% return in 2011, only rose by 5% in
2012.
Commodity prices saw wide fluctuations over the past year as seen in the volatile course of energy, agricultural, and precious metal values.
Multiyear Bull Run continued in bullions raised the concern that despite all efforts, fear prevailed in the financial market that's why investors kept
a chunk of their money in bullion counter, which is better known as Flight to Safety. Despite positive return, Gold is down by about 13% and
silver is down by 35% from its all-time high. Furthermore, negative price movements of Baltic Dry Index, which is a strong indicator for shipping
activities, raised the question if the upside was on the back of investment demand or on core economic activities.
Performance
Asset Class Performance From 4th Jan'12 To 14th Dec'12
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

6
% Change
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
-51.72
-13.01
-3.11
-2.77
-2.19
-0.72
2.23
3.68
4.51
5.22
5.53
6.22
7.77
8.16
10.28
10.34
11.62
13.59
13.90
14.68
15.04
20.01
26.72
28.69
-60.00 -50.00 -40.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00
Baltic Dry Index
Crude Oil (NYMEX)
GSCI commodity index
Shanghai Composite
INR/ USD
Dollar Index
Euro/ USD
US Treasury
Bovespa
Copper (LME)
FTSE
LMEX
Dow Jones
Gold (COMEX)
Japanese Yen/ USD
S&P 500
Natural Gas (NYMEX)
DJ EuroStoxx
Nikkei
Silver (COMEX)
CAC
Hang Seng
Nifty
DAX
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

7
Span Of Price Movement (Agro Commodities)
Span Of Price Movement (Metals & Energy)
COMMODITY EXCHANGE LIFE TIME HIGH LIFE TIME LOW 2012 HIGH* 2012 LOW*
Gold COMEX 1915.00 252.50 1798.10 1528.50
MCX 32464.00 5600.00 32464.00 27170.00
Silver COMEX 5035.00 194.50 3748.00 2607.00
MCX 73600.00 7551.00 65723.00 51000.00
Crude Oil MCX 6333.00 1626.00 5635.00 4448.00
NYMEX 147.27 9.75 110.55 77.28
Natural Gas MCX 591.80 99.50 217.20 99.50
NYMEX 15.78 1.04 3.93 1.90
Copper MCX 466.20 117.60 463.00 397.00
Aluminium MCX 151.50 62.20 117.60 100.60
Zinc MCX 208.30 49.85 115.20 96.30
Lead MCX 154.40 40.50 127.40 99.10
Nickel MCX 1416.00 442.30 1086.80 848.00
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
COMMODITY EXCHANGE LIFE TIME HIGH LIFE TIME LOW 2012 HIGH* 2012 LOW*
SPICES
OTHER COMMODITIES
OILSEEDS
Turmeric NCDEX 16350.00 1666.00 6748.00 3336.00
Jeera NCDEX 17520.00 4877.40 16975.00 11275.00
Chilli NCDEX 10970.00 1731.00 6748.00 4430.00
Pepper NCDEX 45880.00 5350.00 45880.00 28810.00
Cardamom MCX 2097.00 218.20 1508.00 570.00
Chana NCDEX 4999.00 1331.00 4999.00 3020.00
Wheat NCDEX 1705.00 662.00 1705.00 1111.00
Mentha Oil MCX 2564.80 342.00 2564.80 1111.00
Gur NCDEX 1323.00 361.40 1323.00 1030.00
Sugar NCDEX 3672.00 2635.00 3672.00 2635.00
Kapas NCDEX 1262.00 398.90 1184.00 801.00
Crude Palm Oil MCX 632.20 154.20 632.20 393.00
Crude Palm Oil BMD 4298.00 425.00 3655.00 2040.00
Soybean NCDEX 5064.50 1104.50 5064.50 2257.00
Soybean CBOT 1794.75 401.50 1794.75 1150.00
RM Seed NCDEX 4538.00 1586.25 4538.00 3235.00
Ref. Soy Oil NCDEX 817.00 337.70 817.00 611.50
* Closing till 14 December 2012
* Closing till 14 December 2012 Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Asset Class Comparison
Momentum And Carry Were The Winning Strategy For Various Asset Classes
Optimism on monetary easing and various steps to revive the ailing economy by major countries gave some confidence to investors and thus we
saw better return in the year 2012 as compared to 2011; but it is true that it was not a trouble-free year for investors.
Most of the year, the path of global growth shifted downwards and concerns about the sustainability of euro area government debt, elections in
many countries amid various natural disasters, raised the fear of multi dip recession. Downbeat economic indicators from advanced economy
also triggered selling. Other global engines of growth also softened. Not only growth slowed in China and India, even Canada and other countries
also witnessed slow down.
Despite the negative economic data's and other problems, buying returned as there was a firm belief that major countries would come with some
aggressive quantitative easing to rescue the economy. Confidence also returned into the market as it noticed serial quantitative easing in many
major countries. Many central banks loosened monetary policy, cutting interest rates or expanding unconventional policies and it triggered large
asset price reactions. The central banks of Brazil, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Israel, Korea, Philippines, United Kingdom, Euro zone, South
Africa and many more countries lowered their policy rates.
Low or negative yields on advanced economy government bonds spurred investors to search for investment opportunities that offered some
extra return. It resulted in surge in equity and other riskier asset. Equity prices also reacted strongly to the announcements of additional central
bank measures to support the economy. In 2011, capital outflow occurred in riskier assets and investors preferred to put their money into hard
and safe investment avenue. In 2012 trend was reverse, investors put their money in riskier assets associated with the performance of the
economy. All the key equity markets gave whopping return; Hang Seng, Nifty and DAX gave more than 20% return whereas US market also closed
the year in the positive territory. Strangely Chinese market gave negative return of more than 2.77%.
Victory of Obama was another buy trigger for the riskier asset classes. US treasury, which gave more than 18% return in 2011, only rose by 5% in
2012.
Commodity prices saw wide fluctuations over the past year as seen in the volatile course of energy, agricultural, and precious metal values.
Multiyear Bull Run continued in bullions raised the concern that despite all efforts, fear prevailed in the financial market that's why investors kept
a chunk of their money in bullion counter, which is better known as Flight to Safety. Despite positive return, Gold is down by about 13% and
silver is down by 35% from its all-time high. Furthermore, negative price movements of Baltic Dry Index, which is a strong indicator for shipping
activities, raised the question if the upside was on the back of investment demand or on core economic activities.
Performance
Asset Class Performance From 4th Jan'12 To 14th Dec'12
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

6
% Change
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
-51.72
-13.01
-3.11
-2.77
-2.19
-0.72
2.23
3.68
4.51
5.22
5.53
6.22
7.77
8.16
10.28
10.34
11.62
13.59
13.90
14.68
15.04
20.01
26.72
28.69
-60.00 -50.00 -40.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00
Baltic Dry Index
Crude Oil (NYMEX)
GSCI commodity index
Shanghai Composite
INR/ USD
Dollar Index
Euro/ USD
US Treasury
Bovespa
Copper (LME)
FTSE
LMEX
Dow Jones
Gold (COMEX)
Japanese Yen/ USD
S&P 500
Natural Gas (NYMEX)
DJ EuroStoxx
Nikkei
Silver (COMEX)
CAC
Hang Seng
Nifty
DAX
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

7
Performance of Fundamental Positional calls
Note:
a) These fundamental calls are for duration of one to three weeks time frame and do not confuse with these with intraday calls.
b) It is presumed that investor take position in two lots and square off one lot in case of partial profit and trail stop loss for second lot to buying/ selling price.
Note:
a) These fundamental calls are for duration of one to three weeks time frame and do not confuse with these with intraday calls.
b) It is presumed that investor take position in two lots and square off one lot in case of partial profit and trail stop loss for second lot to buying/ selling price.
Performance of Fundamental Positional calls
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S
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J
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COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

8
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r
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COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

9
Performance of Fundamental Positional calls
Note:
a) These fundamental calls are for duration of one to three weeks time frame and do not confuse with these with intraday calls.
b) It is presumed that investor take position in two lots and square off one lot in case of partial profit and trail stop loss for second lot to buying/ selling price.
Note:
a) These fundamental calls are for duration of one to three weeks time frame and do not confuse with these with intraday calls.
b) It is presumed that investor take position in two lots and square off one lot in case of partial profit and trail stop loss for second lot to buying/ selling price.
Performance of Fundamental Positional calls
S
l
.

N
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.
G
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n
P
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l
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C
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p

L
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s
R
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R
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t
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(
%
)
G
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/
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s

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A
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:

S
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p

J
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n
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

8
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2
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5
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3
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t

1
3
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(
5
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3
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3
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3
4
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3
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h
e
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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1
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F
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3
3
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3
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6
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t
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1
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9
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1
1
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7
5
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1
2
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8
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3
7
1
8
-
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t
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2
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y

1
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2
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0
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1
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3
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5
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1
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0
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-
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p

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t
-
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8
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2
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,
8
8
0
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0
0
)
3
7
2
6
-
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v
-
1
2
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y
b
e
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b
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y

3
,
3
3
7
.
0
0


3
,
5
8
5
.
0
0


3
,
1
8
0
.
0
0

-
-
E
x
i
t

a
t

3
2
3
0
.
0
0
-
3
.
2
1

(
1
0
,
7
0
0
.
0
0
)
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0
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1
7

2
1
6
,
5
2
0
.
0
0
N
e
t

r
e
t
u
r
n
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

9
Economic Indicators Economic Indicators
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Purchase Manager Index -U.S Existing Home Sales -U.S
Industrial Production YoY -U.S
Non Farm Payroll -U.S
US Unemployment Rate
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Consumer Confidence Index -U.S
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

10
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
-20.00
-15.00
- 10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
3200000
3700000
4200000
4700000
5200000
5700000
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
in absolute values in absolute values
% change
in absolute values
% change
in absolute values
124000
126000
128000
130000
132000
134000
136000
138000
140000
J
a
n
-
0
8
M
a
r
-
0
8
M
a
y
-
0
8
J
u
l
-
0
8
S
e
p
-
0
8
N
o
v
-
0
8
J
a
n
-
0
9
M
a
r
-
0
9
M
a
y
-
0
9
J
u
l
-
0
9
S
e
p
-
0
9
N
o
v
-
0
9
J
a
n
-
1
0
M
a
r
-
1
0
M
a
y
-
1
0
J
u
l
-
1
0
S
e
p
-
1
0
N
o
v
-
1
0
J
a
n
-
1
1
M
a
r
-
1
1
M
a
y
-
1
1
J
u
l
-
1
1
S
e
p
-
1
1
N
o
v
-
1
1
J
a
n
-
1
2
M
a
r
-
1
2
M
a
y
-
1
2
J
u
l
-
1
2
S
e
p
-
1
2
N
o
v
-
1
2
CPI Median -U.S GDP - Euro Zone & US (YoY)
GDP - India & China (YoY)
IndiaGDP (YoY)%Change ChinaGDP (YoY)%Change
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
Baltic Dry Index
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

11
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
in absolute values
% change
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
% change
USGDP (YoY)% Change Euro zoneGDP (YoY) % Change
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
in absolute values
Purchase Manager Index-U.S PurchasingManager Index-China PurchasingManager Index-Eurozone
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
F
e
b
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
A
p
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l-
0
8
1
-
A
u
g
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
O
c
t
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
F
e
b
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
A
p
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l-
0
9
1
-
A
u
g
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
O
c
t
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l-
1
0
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l-
1
1
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l-
1
2
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Comparison of Purchase Manager Index - U.S, China & Euro Zone
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Expansion
Contraction
in absolute values
Economic Indicators Economic Indicators
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Purchase Manager Index -U.S Existing Home Sales -U.S
Industrial Production YoY -U.S
Non Farm Payroll -U.S
US Unemployment Rate
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Consumer Confidence Index -U.S
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

10
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
-20.00
-15.00
- 10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
3200000
3700000
4200000
4700000
5200000
5700000
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
in absolute values in absolute values
% change
in absolute values
% change
in absolute values
124000
126000
128000
130000
132000
134000
136000
138000
140000
J
a
n
-
0
8
M
a
r
-
0
8
M
a
y
-
0
8
J
u
l
-
0
8
S
e
p
-
0
8
N
o
v
-
0
8
J
a
n
-
0
9
M
a
r
-
0
9
M
a
y
-
0
9
J
u
l
-
0
9
S
e
p
-
0
9
N
o
v
-
0
9
J
a
n
-
1
0
M
a
r
-
1
0
M
a
y
-
1
0
J
u
l
-
1
0
S
e
p
-
1
0
N
o
v
-
1
0
J
a
n
-
1
1
M
a
r
-
1
1
M
a
y
-
1
1
J
u
l
-
1
1
S
e
p
-
1
1
N
o
v
-
1
1
J
a
n
-
1
2
M
a
r
-
1
2
M
a
y
-
1
2
J
u
l
-
1
2
S
e
p
-
1
2
N
o
v
-
1
2
CPI Median -U.S GDP - Euro Zone & US (YoY)
GDP - India & China (YoY)
IndiaGDP (YoY)%Change ChinaGDP (YoY)%Change
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
Baltic Dry Index
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

11
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
in absolute values
% change
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
% change
USGDP (YoY)% Change Euro zoneGDP (YoY) % Change
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
in absolute values
Purchase Manager Index-U.S PurchasingManager Index-China PurchasingManager Index-Eurozone
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
8
1
-
F
e
b
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
8
1
-
A
p
r
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
l-
0
8
1
-
A
u
g
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
O
c
t
-
0
8
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
8
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
J
a
n
-
0
9
1
-
F
e
b
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
A
p
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
y
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
l-
0
9
1
-
A
u
g
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
O
c
t
-
0
9
1
-
N
o
v
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
0
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
l-
1
0
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
0
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l-
1
1
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l-
1
2
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
Comparison of Purchase Manager Index - U.S, China & Euro Zone
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Expansion
Contraction
in absolute values
Currency Movement Production Scenario of Bullions & Base Metals COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Zinc Production In World Nickel Production In World
Source: Reuters Source: Reuters
Copper Production In World Lead Production In World
Source: Reuters Source: Reuters
Primary Aluminium Production In World Gold Production In World
Source: Reuters Source: Reuters
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

12

13
USD INR (Quarterly)
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Absolute values
42.91
46.80 48.58
50.56
47.74
47.72
46.40
44.80
46.44
44.56
44.70
44.52
44.69
49.01
53.01
50.87
55.50
52.84
54.84
40.00
42.00
44.00
46.00
48.00
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Euro(Quarterly)
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Absolute values
1.5755
1.4102
1.3978
1.325
1.4033
1.4635
1.4316
1.351
1.2234
1.363
1.3377
1.4165
1.4504
1.3384
1.2955
1.3343
1.2658
1.2845
1.3168
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Dollar Index(Quarterly)
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Absolute values
72.46
79.45
81.15
85.51
80.16
76.65
77.86
81.07
86.02
78.72
79.03
75.86
74.30
78.80
80.21
78.95
81.60
80.00 79.55
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
Yuan(Quarterly)
Absolute values
6.854
6.843
6.823 6.833 6.830 6.826 6.826 6.826
6.782
6.691
6.590
6.548
6.464
6.378
6.294
6.298
6.353
6.284
6.234
5.900
6.000
6.100
6.200
6.300
6.400
6.500
6.600
6.700
6.800
6.900
7.000
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Currency Movement Production Scenario of Bullions & Base Metals COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Zinc Production In World Nickel Production In World
Source: Reuters Source: Reuters
Copper Production In World Lead Production In World
Source: Reuters Source: Reuters
Primary Aluminium Production In World Gold Production In World
Source: Reuters Source: Reuters
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

12

13
USD INR (Quarterly)
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Absolute values
42.91
46.80 48.58
50.56
47.74
47.72
46.40
44.80
46.44
44.56
44.70
44.52
44.69
49.01
53.01
50.87
55.50
52.84
54.84
40.00
42.00
44.00
46.00
48.00
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Euro(Quarterly)
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Absolute values
1.5755
1.4102
1.3978
1.325
1.4033
1.4635
1.4316
1.351
1.2234
1.363
1.3377
1.4165
1.4504
1.3384
1.2955
1.3343
1.2658
1.2845
1.3168
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Dollar Index(Quarterly)
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Absolute values
72.46
79.45
81.15
85.51
80.16
76.65
77.86
81.07
86.02
78.72
79.03
75.86
74.30
78.80
80.21
78.95
81.60
80.00 79.55
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
8
1
-
M
a
r
-
0
9
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
0
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
0
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
Yuan(Quarterly)
Absolute values
6.854
6.843
6.823 6.833 6.830 6.826 6.826 6.826
6.782
6.691
6.590
6.548
6.464
6.378
6.294
6.298
6.353
6.284
6.234
5.900
6.000
6.100
6.200
6.300
6.400
6.500
6.600
6.700
6.800
6.900
7.000
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
8
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
8
1
-
J
u
n
-
0
9
1
-
S
e
p
-
0
9
1
-
D
e
c
-
0
9
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
0
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
0
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Quantitative Easing & FOMC Statement COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1, December 2008 To
March 2010)
On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve announced that it
would purchase up to $600 billion in agency mortgage-backed
securities (MBS) and agency debt. On December 16, the
program was formally launched by the FOMC. On March 18,
2009, the FOMC announced that the program would be
expanded by an additional $750 billion in purchases of agency
MBS and agency debt and $300 billion in purchases of Treasury
securities.
Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2, November 2010 To
June 2011 )
On November 3, 2010, the Fed announced that it would
purchase $600 billion of longer dated treasuries, at a rate of $75
billion per month. That program, popularly known as "QE2",
concluded in June 2011.
Operation Twist (2011)
The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its September
21, 2011 meeting by announcing the implementation of
Operation Twist. This is a plan to purchase $400 billion of
bonds with maturities of 6 to 30 years and to sell bonds with
maturities less than 3 years, thereby extending the average
maturity of the Fed's own portfolio. This is an attempt to do
what Quantitative Easing (QE) tries to do, without printing
more money and without expanding the Fed's balance sheet,
therefore hopefully avoiding the inflationary pressure
associated with QE. This announcement brought a bout of risk
aversion in the equity markets and strengthened the US Dollar,
whereas QE I had weakened the USD and supported the equity
markets. Further, on June 20, 2012 the Federal Open Market
Committee announced an extension to the Twist programme by
adding additionally $267 billion thereby extending it
throughout 2012.
Quantitative easing 3 (QE3)
On September 13, 2012, the Federal Reserve announced a third
round of quantitative easing (QE3). This new round of
quantitative easing provided for an open-ended commitment
to purchase $40 billion agency mortgage-backed securities per
month until the labor market improves "substantially".
Key Points Of FOMC Statement From Meeting Held On
11-12 December 2012
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to
foster maximum employment and price stability.
Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy
accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to
generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.
Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant
downside risks to the economic outlook.
The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium
term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
Committee will continue purchasing additional agency
mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.
The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury
securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its
holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the
2012, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on
economic and financial developments in coming months. If the
outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the
Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency
mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as
appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of
price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of
its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take
appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such
purchases.
Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds
rate at 0 to 1/ 4 percent and currently anticipates that this
exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be
appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains
above 6-1/ 2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead
is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the
Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation
expectations continue to be well anchored. When the Committee
decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a
balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of
maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

14
Quantitative Easing & FOMC Statement COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Quantitative Easing 1 (QE1, December 2008 To
March 2010)
On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve announced that it
would purchase up to $600 billion in agency mortgage-backed
securities (MBS) and agency debt. On December 16, the
program was formally launched by the FOMC. On March 18,
2009, the FOMC announced that the program would be
expanded by an additional $750 billion in purchases of agency
MBS and agency debt and $300 billion in purchases of Treasury
securities.
Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2, November 2010 To
June 2011 )
On November 3, 2010, the Fed announced that it would
purchase $600 billion of longer dated treasuries, at a rate of $75
billion per month. That program, popularly known as "QE2",
concluded in June 2011.
Operation Twist (2011)
The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its September
21, 2011 meeting by announcing the implementation of
Operation Twist. This is a plan to purchase $400 billion of
bonds with maturities of 6 to 30 years and to sell bonds with
maturities less than 3 years, thereby extending the average
maturity of the Fed's own portfolio. This is an attempt to do
what Quantitative Easing (QE) tries to do, without printing
more money and without expanding the Fed's balance sheet,
therefore hopefully avoiding the inflationary pressure
associated with QE. This announcement brought a bout of risk
aversion in the equity markets and strengthened the US Dollar,
whereas QE I had weakened the USD and supported the equity
markets. Further, on June 20, 2012 the Federal Open Market
Committee announced an extension to the Twist programme by
adding additionally $267 billion thereby extending it
throughout 2012.
Quantitative easing 3 (QE3)
On September 13, 2012, the Federal Reserve announced a third
round of quantitative easing (QE3). This new round of
quantitative easing provided for an open-ended commitment
to purchase $40 billion agency mortgage-backed securities per
month until the labor market improves "substantially".
Key Points Of FOMC Statement From Meeting Held On
11-12 December 2012
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to
foster maximum employment and price stability.
Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy
accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to
generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.
Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant
downside risks to the economic outlook.
The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium
term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
Committee will continue purchasing additional agency
mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.
The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury
securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its
holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the
2012, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on
economic and financial developments in coming months. If the
outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the
Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency
mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as
appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of
price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of
its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take
appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such
purchases.
Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds
rate at 0 to 1/ 4 percent and currently anticipates that this
exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be
appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains
above 6-1/ 2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead
is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the
Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation
expectations continue to be well anchored. When the Committee
decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a
balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of
maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

14
Annual Commentary - Gold
Annual Outlook
Gold
3,107 tonnes. As the hedge book shrank, the level of de-hedging also
slowed: in 2009 the hedge book was cut by 249 tonnes, in 2010 it
Yellow metal Gold continued its relentless bull run since last 11
fell 96 tonnes, in 2011 it bucked the trend by climbing 6 tonnes but
years, but it failed to break the 2011, high of above $1900 in COMEX.
resumed the down trend in 2012 by falling 14 tonnes in the first
While it clocked life time high in MCX of above 32400 due to
half. The slowdown down in the de hedging requirements also
deprecating local currency Rupee amid bourgeoning fiscal deficit in
capped the upside in Gold to some extent in the year 2012.
India. Gold in a host of currencies has reached record highs in 2012
apart from Indian rupee including Euro, Swiss francs, and Brazilian
real and South African rand.
Gold managed to remain on firm footing as the declining Greenback
and growing investment demand coupled with safe haven demand
continue to assist its prices higher. The money pumping by various
central banks across the globe after the financial crises of 2008
Glitter in the yellow metal may prolong in the 12th year also as the
coupled with ultra loose monetary policies of west continue to lend
expansion of balance sheet by way of various stimulus measures by
support to the prices.
central banks will give investors another reason to park their funds
in safe haven assets like Gold. And until global central banks shift
In the year 2012, COMEX Gold prices moved in volatile fashion and
gears in a major way and start pulling back on their huge balance
took key support near $1530 but also failed to cross $1800. Central
sheets and historic printing of paper money, known as quantitative
banks also continue to add this yellow metal in their reserves.
easing, the bull run in Gold is far from over.
Prices remained volatile in the first two quarters but appreciated
rapidly in the third quarter as Fed announced further monetary
Physical demand from central banks has been climbing and it is
easing known as QE3.
expected to remain firm as global bankers look to diversify reserve
assets. With the global recovery is expected to take more time most
Demand for Gold by central banks and official sector institutions
global central banks aren't changing the direction of their policy
accelerated during the second quarter. For the first half year, Gold
anytime soon.
reserves increased by 254.2 tonnes, compared with 203.2 tonnes in
H1 2011. At present the US is managing to keep the recovery going,
Diversification of reserve assets remains the driving force behind
but the fact is that it had to provide a third tranche of Quantitative
Gold demand by central banks. Gold is now considered a safe haven
Easing (QE3) highlights that the Fed was concerned that growth
for central banks, which have booked losses from the continued
was flagging. Fed has said it will purchase $40B per month of
depreciation of US dollars, which made up 60 per cent of global
mortgage-backed securities, indefinitely. FOMC decided to keep the
international reserves. The US tops the list with a holding of 8,133.5
target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/ 4 percent and
tonnes, or 77 per cent, followed by Germany's 3,395.5 tonnes, or 74
currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal
per cent. India Gold reserves stand at 11 position nearly 557 tonnes
funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.
while China is at fifth with 1054 tonnes. Central Banks in the Middle
Meanwhile the SPDR Gold ETF holding surged to life time high
East are building up their Gold Reserves, while reducing their US
during November to nearly 1350 metric tonnes, which showed the
Dollar forex holding.
continuous rise in investment demand for Gold. Total ETF holding
Movement of Greenback will also be key factor in 2013 as it has of Gold was above 2500 tonnes .The Bank of Japan joined the Fed,
finished flat in 2012. Greenback generally has inverse correlation ECB, China, South Korea and others by announcing an aggressive
with Gold prices. Greenback can move in range of 76-86 in 2013. stimulus program and this proved to be extremely inflationary and
bullish for Gold.
Indian Gold imports dipped in the first two quarter as demand was
not that great following economic downturn, monsoon deficit, duty On the domestic bourses, Gold managed to scale higher in first three
issues and jewellers strike, high prices etc. World Gold Council quarter but finished flat in the last quarter of 2012. According to the
forecasts 800 tonnes of Gold in 2012 as third quarter demand World Gold Council (WGC) India's net Gold import for domestic
surged in India due to marriage season. Against the backdrop of consumption is likely to be about 800 tonnes this year following a
slowing economy and persistent inflation, this upward trend pick-up in demand during the festive season
encouraged by India's socio-cultural affinity and Gold's significance
The global de hedging also supported the bullish sentiments in the
as an effective store of wealth is likely to continue in 2013.
beginning of the bull market for Gold in late 2001, which roughly
India jewellery demand the world's biggest Gold market rebounded coincided with the start of de-hedging, the total hedge book stood at
Range: MCX: Rs 28000-35000
COMEX: $1530-1950
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Bullions COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013 Annual Commentary & Outlook : Bullions
8% to 223.1 tonnes as buying picked up again following strikes by
jewelers, fewer auspicious marriage days and a new import duty in
the first half of the year. Meanwhile Jewelry demand in India
increased by 7 per cent to 136.1 tonnes in the third quarter of 2012
as compared to third quarter of 2011.
On the investment front the massive holding of ETF only signifies
the ever increasing demand of Gold. The investment demand in
India for January to September 2012 stood at 207.3 tonne. Global
ETF holding which was 500 tonnes in 2005 went up above 2500
tonnes in 2012 that is amazing increase of nearly 400 percent.
Investment demand for bar and coins also shot up above 1400
tonnes in 2011 as compared to 1200 tonnes in 2010.And in 2012
this figures can end up near 1300 tonnes.
On the supply front, Gold supply has climbed in recent years as high
prices have encouraged a supply response from miners. Whereas in
the recent years supply has also been boosted by rising levels of
scrap, this was not the case in 2011 as scrap supply fell around 3%
to 1,665 tonnes. Mine output showed higher figures in 2012 as new
production comes on stream, but this will to some extent be
countered by falling production at existing mines as producers have
encountered lower ore grades, adverse weather and production
disruptions. Mine output is expected to climb around three percent
in 2013 to 2,940 tonnes. China became the world's largest Gold
producer in 2007 and has held that position each year since, with
output in 2011 climbing 5.9% to around 361 tonnes.
Apart from being the largest consumer of industrial raw materials,
China is also the largest buyer of Gold worldwide as Chinese Gold
imports surged to 582 tonnes till October 2012.
Globally, central banks have broadly started increasing their
balance sheets with zero interest rate policies and bond purchases
in the US. This increases the inflation expectations of investors, and
they will soon shift their wealth into tangible assets.
Euro debt problem will continue to be in focus in 2013 as it seems
impossible to resolve it properly in 2012 despite some bail out given
to Spain and Greece.
Continuation of Presidentship by Mr. Barack Obama is also bullish
signal for Gold, as Quantitative easing is likely to be continued and it
will give upper hand to Gold due to printing of more money. US debt
ceiling limit that expires in Feb. 2013 will be closely watched by
Gold investors. Given the extent to which debt has grown and is
growing, creditors may well start to get worried and then the US
could start to find itself in a similar situation to Europe.
Given the monetary and political strains in Europe, the uncertainty
over whether the US will avoid tripping over the 'fiscal cliff' and
whether China will avoid a hard landing it will be another volatile
year for Gold in 2013.
Meanwhile the rupee dollar movement will also be keenly watched
as its deprecation has largely supported the domestic prices in MCX
in 2012. Going forward in 2013 rupee dollar can move in range of
50-60.
Gold prices in COMEX have taken key support of $1530 in 2012 and
it will also act as key support in 2013 while $1800 will be key
resistance. On the domestic bourses if rupee manages to get
strength in 2013 then it will pressurize Gold prices in MCX.28000
will be key support for Gold and 32000 will be key resistance in
2013.
Gold Futures (MCX) Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.91
0.95
0.93
0.94
0.97
0.98 0.98
1.03
1.05
1.05
1.11
1.10
26000.00
27000.00
28000.00
29000.00
30000.00
31000.00
32000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closingprice2012
Yearly Return Of Various
Gold Exchange Traded Funds
11.73
11.93
12.74
12.84
13.14
14.16
14.54
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
13.00
15.00
17.00
Kotak Gold
Exchange
Traded Fund
Uti Gold
Exchange
Traded Fund
Gold
Benchmark
Exchange
Traded Scheme
ICICI
Prudential
Gold Exchange
Traded Fund
Axis Gold
Exchange
Traded Fund
Reliance
Gold Exchange
Traded Fund
HDFCGold
Exchange
Traded Fund
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
% change

16

17
Annual Commentary - Gold
Annual Outlook
Gold
3,107 tonnes. As the hedge book shrank, the level of de-hedging also
slowed: in 2009 the hedge book was cut by 249 tonnes, in 2010 it
Yellow metal Gold continued its relentless bull run since last 11
fell 96 tonnes, in 2011 it bucked the trend by climbing 6 tonnes but
years, but it failed to break the 2011, high of above $1900 in COMEX.
resumed the down trend in 2012 by falling 14 tonnes in the first
While it clocked life time high in MCX of above 32400 due to
half. The slowdown down in the de hedging requirements also
deprecating local currency Rupee amid bourgeoning fiscal deficit in
capped the upside in Gold to some extent in the year 2012.
India. Gold in a host of currencies has reached record highs in 2012
apart from Indian rupee including Euro, Swiss francs, and Brazilian
real and South African rand.
Gold managed to remain on firm footing as the declining Greenback
and growing investment demand coupled with safe haven demand
continue to assist its prices higher. The money pumping by various
central banks across the globe after the financial crises of 2008
Glitter in the yellow metal may prolong in the 12th year also as the
coupled with ultra loose monetary policies of west continue to lend
expansion of balance sheet by way of various stimulus measures by
support to the prices.
central banks will give investors another reason to park their funds
in safe haven assets like Gold. And until global central banks shift
In the year 2012, COMEX Gold prices moved in volatile fashion and
gears in a major way and start pulling back on their huge balance
took key support near $1530 but also failed to cross $1800. Central
sheets and historic printing of paper money, known as quantitative
banks also continue to add this yellow metal in their reserves.
easing, the bull run in Gold is far from over.
Prices remained volatile in the first two quarters but appreciated
rapidly in the third quarter as Fed announced further monetary
Physical demand from central banks has been climbing and it is
easing known as QE3.
expected to remain firm as global bankers look to diversify reserve
assets. With the global recovery is expected to take more time most
Demand for Gold by central banks and official sector institutions
global central banks aren't changing the direction of their policy
accelerated during the second quarter. For the first half year, Gold
anytime soon.
reserves increased by 254.2 tonnes, compared with 203.2 tonnes in
H1 2011. At present the US is managing to keep the recovery going,
Diversification of reserve assets remains the driving force behind
but the fact is that it had to provide a third tranche of Quantitative
Gold demand by central banks. Gold is now considered a safe haven
Easing (QE3) highlights that the Fed was concerned that growth
for central banks, which have booked losses from the continued
was flagging. Fed has said it will purchase $40B per month of
depreciation of US dollars, which made up 60 per cent of global
mortgage-backed securities, indefinitely. FOMC decided to keep the
international reserves. The US tops the list with a holding of 8,133.5
target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/ 4 percent and
tonnes, or 77 per cent, followed by Germany's 3,395.5 tonnes, or 74
currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal
per cent. India Gold reserves stand at 11 position nearly 557 tonnes
funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.
while China is at fifth with 1054 tonnes. Central Banks in the Middle
Meanwhile the SPDR Gold ETF holding surged to life time high
East are building up their Gold Reserves, while reducing their US
during November to nearly 1350 metric tonnes, which showed the
Dollar forex holding.
continuous rise in investment demand for Gold. Total ETF holding
Movement of Greenback will also be key factor in 2013 as it has of Gold was above 2500 tonnes .The Bank of Japan joined the Fed,
finished flat in 2012. Greenback generally has inverse correlation ECB, China, South Korea and others by announcing an aggressive
with Gold prices. Greenback can move in range of 76-86 in 2013. stimulus program and this proved to be extremely inflationary and
bullish for Gold.
Indian Gold imports dipped in the first two quarter as demand was
not that great following economic downturn, monsoon deficit, duty On the domestic bourses, Gold managed to scale higher in first three
issues and jewellers strike, high prices etc. World Gold Council quarter but finished flat in the last quarter of 2012. According to the
forecasts 800 tonnes of Gold in 2012 as third quarter demand World Gold Council (WGC) India's net Gold import for domestic
surged in India due to marriage season. Against the backdrop of consumption is likely to be about 800 tonnes this year following a
slowing economy and persistent inflation, this upward trend pick-up in demand during the festive season
encouraged by India's socio-cultural affinity and Gold's significance
The global de hedging also supported the bullish sentiments in the
as an effective store of wealth is likely to continue in 2013.
beginning of the bull market for Gold in late 2001, which roughly
India jewellery demand the world's biggest Gold market rebounded coincided with the start of de-hedging, the total hedge book stood at
Range: MCX: Rs 28000-35000
COMEX: $1530-1950
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Bullions COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013 Annual Commentary & Outlook : Bullions
8% to 223.1 tonnes as buying picked up again following strikes by
jewelers, fewer auspicious marriage days and a new import duty in
the first half of the year. Meanwhile Jewelry demand in India
increased by 7 per cent to 136.1 tonnes in the third quarter of 2012
as compared to third quarter of 2011.
On the investment front the massive holding of ETF only signifies
the ever increasing demand of Gold. The investment demand in
India for January to September 2012 stood at 207.3 tonne. Global
ETF holding which was 500 tonnes in 2005 went up above 2500
tonnes in 2012 that is amazing increase of nearly 400 percent.
Investment demand for bar and coins also shot up above 1400
tonnes in 2011 as compared to 1200 tonnes in 2010.And in 2012
this figures can end up near 1300 tonnes.
On the supply front, Gold supply has climbed in recent years as high
prices have encouraged a supply response from miners. Whereas in
the recent years supply has also been boosted by rising levels of
scrap, this was not the case in 2011 as scrap supply fell around 3%
to 1,665 tonnes. Mine output showed higher figures in 2012 as new
production comes on stream, but this will to some extent be
countered by falling production at existing mines as producers have
encountered lower ore grades, adverse weather and production
disruptions. Mine output is expected to climb around three percent
in 2013 to 2,940 tonnes. China became the world's largest Gold
producer in 2007 and has held that position each year since, with
output in 2011 climbing 5.9% to around 361 tonnes.
Apart from being the largest consumer of industrial raw materials,
China is also the largest buyer of Gold worldwide as Chinese Gold
imports surged to 582 tonnes till October 2012.
Globally, central banks have broadly started increasing their
balance sheets with zero interest rate policies and bond purchases
in the US. This increases the inflation expectations of investors, and
they will soon shift their wealth into tangible assets.
Euro debt problem will continue to be in focus in 2013 as it seems
impossible to resolve it properly in 2012 despite some bail out given
to Spain and Greece.
Continuation of Presidentship by Mr. Barack Obama is also bullish
signal for Gold, as Quantitative easing is likely to be continued and it
will give upper hand to Gold due to printing of more money. US debt
ceiling limit that expires in Feb. 2013 will be closely watched by
Gold investors. Given the extent to which debt has grown and is
growing, creditors may well start to get worried and then the US
could start to find itself in a similar situation to Europe.
Given the monetary and political strains in Europe, the uncertainty
over whether the US will avoid tripping over the 'fiscal cliff' and
whether China will avoid a hard landing it will be another volatile
year for Gold in 2013.
Meanwhile the rupee dollar movement will also be keenly watched
as its deprecation has largely supported the domestic prices in MCX
in 2012. Going forward in 2013 rupee dollar can move in range of
50-60.
Gold prices in COMEX have taken key support of $1530 in 2012 and
it will also act as key support in 2013 while $1800 will be key
resistance. On the domestic bourses if rupee manages to get
strength in 2013 then it will pressurize Gold prices in MCX.28000
will be key support for Gold and 32000 will be key resistance in
2013.
Gold Futures (MCX) Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.91
0.95
0.93
0.94
0.97
0.98 0.98
1.03
1.05
1.05
1.11
1.10
26000.00
27000.00
28000.00
29000.00
30000.00
31000.00
32000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closingprice2012
Yearly Return Of Various
Gold Exchange Traded Funds
11.73
11.93
12.74
12.84
13.14
14.16
14.54
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
13.00
15.00
17.00
Kotak Gold
Exchange
Traded Fund
Uti Gold
Exchange
Traded Fund
Gold
Benchmark
Exchange
Traded Scheme
ICICI
Prudential
Gold Exchange
Traded Fund
Axis Gold
Exchange
Traded Fund
Reliance
Gold Exchange
Traded Fund
HDFCGold
Exchange
Traded Fund
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
% change

16

17
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Bullions Annual Commentary & Outlook : Bullions
Annual Commentary - Silver
White metal Silver also showed positive return last year as the
bullish momentum which started in 2004 continued. Silver prices
did not mange to test the life time high of nearly $49.5 in COMEX and
above 73500 in MCX hit in 2011 as it consolidated in the range after
taking key support near $26 and 51000 in COMEX and MCX
respectively.
Like Gold, first and third quarter also favored bulls in Silver, but in
second quarter some profit booking was witnessed. August and
September were the months where Silver appreciated the most
during the period when fed announced QE3.
Silver, which also behave as industrial metal was also impacted by
the global economic events including Euro zone crises and US fiscal
cliff.
Investors' confidence has returned in 2012 having been shaken
during the post-April 2011 sell-off. ETF investors' holdings are near
all time highs and funds' interest has returned.
Gold Silver ratio, which was nearly 48 in February 2012 scaled
higher above 58 during middle of the year but declined below 52 in
second half of 2012. In the first half Gold outperformed Silver while
during second half it underperformed the latter.
The emergence of the ETFs in 2006 has absorbed much of the
surplus as the ETFs hold around 18,615 tonnes of metal. While
industrial demand accounts for around 55% of overall Silver
demand, investment demand has been the main driver of price
strength in 2012. COMEX warehouses have risen by 21%, an
indication that industrial demand remained soft in 2012. The
weakness in industrial demand has been borne out by the Silver
Institute's estimated 6% downturn in industrial demand this year.
Household demand for Silver like cutlery, flatware, and candlesticks
rose in ten years but the technology sector demand continued to
give support to the prices. The growing imports by key consumer
China also kept the physical demand upbeat. China's net imports of
Silver hit a record high as it quadrupled to 3,500 tonnes in 2011. But
according to country's official trade data, the total inflow in the first
10 months of 2012 slumped by 28 percent. China was a net exporter
of Silver for many years and the Chinese export used to be a major
component of global Silver supply. This scenario changed in 2007
when China became a net importer of Silver.
White metal Silver is also known as poor man Gold and growing
middle classes and savers in China, India and other Asian countries
have been investing in Silver which also act as store for value. As we
have seen Gold has risen above its historical nominal high in local
currency terms internationally and Silver is seen by many as a
cheaper alternative.
The industrial use of Silver will also determine the future price
direction. According to the Silver Institute's latest report, industrial
demand for Silver is expected to rebound in 2013 after losing
ground in 2012. The electronics industry is expected to be the
mainstay of industrial demand over the next two years, with growth
Annual Outlook
Silver Range : MCX: Rs 51000-75000
COMEX: $26-48
Dow & Gold Ratio
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
2
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
2
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
2
-
M
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r
-
1
1
2
-
A
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r
-
1
1
2
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
2
-
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-
1
1
2
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2
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1
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1
1
2
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D
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-
1
1
2
-
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-
1
2
2
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F
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-
1
2
2
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M
a
r
-
1
2
2
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A
p
r
-
1
2
2
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
2
-
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-
1
2
2
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1
2
2
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1
2
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-
1
2
2
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N
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-
1
2
2
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
2
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
2
-
F
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b
-
1
1
2
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
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A
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M
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-
1
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2
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1
1
2
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J
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1
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-
1
1
2
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S
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-
1
1
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O
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t
-
1
1
2
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
2
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
2
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
2
-
F
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b
-
1
2
2
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
2
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
2
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
2
-
J
u
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-
1
2
2
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
2
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
2
-
S
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p
-
1
2
2
-
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1
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N
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-
1
2
2
-
D
e
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-
1
2
Gold & Crude Ratio (COMEX)
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
in emerging Asia the predominant force.
Industrial demand for Silver fell 2.7 percent in 2011, as industry
destocked and growth slowed. In 2013 also the pace of global
growth especially electronic industry will impact its industrial
demand. Silver being a precious metal it also has many industrial
applications and therefore will always have demand, especially
when the global economy comes fully out of recession.
Silver has many applications such as in Coins, Jewelry, Silverware,
Dentistry, Photography Electronics, Mirrors and Optics, Musical
instruments, Medical devices, instruments, Textiles and
Nanotechnology. The biggest growth area is in technology and that
is where a lot of demand will be generated as we further delve into
an era dominated by apple, iPhones, iPads etc. Silver is utilized
heavily in these high-tech devices. On an average, 6 cents of Silver is
used in each cell phone, according to industry reports. Since 1999,
consumption in electronics has increased 120%. Silver use in solar
panels began in 2000, and its usage is up 640% since then. Silver
was first used in biocides (antibacterial agents) in 2002 and, while a
small percentage of total Silver use, it has grown six-fold. New
applications will drive growth and offset slower growth from the
more traditional industrial uses such as electronics and
photography in 2013. Another new application that looks
promising and has potential to become a major user of the metal in
2013 is Silver zinc batteries. These rechargeable batteries are being
considered for the next generation of high performance batteries
for laptops and mobile electronic devices.
Silver demand in China, the world's second-largest user, may jump
as much as 10 percent in 2013 to a record as investors look to
preserve wealth. Consumption may climb to as much as 7,700
metric tonnes, after gaining 6 percent to 8 percent in 2012.
China's jewelry sales have jumped by 19.3 percent in the first eight
months of 2012 from a year earlier. According to China Nonferrous
Metals Industry Association Output in China, the third-biggest
producer may reach a record 13,000 tonnes in 2012 from mining,
smelting, refining and recycling.
Silver investment demand is also key factor to affect its prices in
2013. Global Silver ETF holding from nearly 5000 tonnes in 2007
has gone up to nearly 18000 tonnes in 2011 that is growth of more
than 250 per cent, but it remained flat in 2012.
On the supply front, mine output rose 1.4 percent in 2011, to a new
record of 23,688 tonnes according to the World Silver Survey.
Primary Silver mines provided 28 percent of mined metal, 37
percent came from by-products of lead and zinc, 21 percent from
copper mines and 14 percent from Gold mines. In the year 2013 by-
product output in India, Indonesia, Canada and Mexico will
replenish the supply of Silver.
Silver has dual properties of precious and base metals so it will be
impacted by global macro scenario in 2013 as well.
Gold Silver ratio is expected to tumble lower towards 45 in 2013
thus indicating that Silver can outpace Gold. Silver prices can take
key support of $26 in COMEX and 51000 in MCX in 2013. Silver will
face resistance at $36 and 66000 in COMEX and MCX. If it breaches
66000 then it may try to touch the high of 72000 levels in 2013.
Silver Futures (MCX) Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
40000.00
45000.00
50000.00
55000.00
60000.00
65000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
0.90
0.96 0.96
1.04
0.98
0.97
1.01
1.04
1.02
1.04
1.06 1.06
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
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-
1
1
1
-
A
p
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-
1
1
1
-
M
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-
1
1
1
-
J
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1
1
1
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J
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l
-
1
1
1
-
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1
1
1
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S
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-
1
1
1
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-
1
1
1
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N
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v
-
1
1
1
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D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
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-
1
2
1
-
F
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-
1
2
1
-
M
a
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-
1
2
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
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-
1
2
1
-
J
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-
1
2
1
-
A
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1
2
1
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1
2
1
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1
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1
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N
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1
2
1
-
D
e
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-
1
2
Gold & Silver Ratio (COMEX)
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research

18

19
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Bullions Annual Commentary & Outlook : Bullions
Annual Commentary - Silver
White metal Silver also showed positive return last year as the
bullish momentum which started in 2004 continued. Silver prices
did not mange to test the life time high of nearly $49.5 in COMEX and
above 73500 in MCX hit in 2011 as it consolidated in the range after
taking key support near $26 and 51000 in COMEX and MCX
respectively.
Like Gold, first and third quarter also favored bulls in Silver, but in
second quarter some profit booking was witnessed. August and
September were the months where Silver appreciated the most
during the period when fed announced QE3.
Silver, which also behave as industrial metal was also impacted by
the global economic events including Euro zone crises and US fiscal
cliff.
Investors' confidence has returned in 2012 having been shaken
during the post-April 2011 sell-off. ETF investors' holdings are near
all time highs and funds' interest has returned.
Gold Silver ratio, which was nearly 48 in February 2012 scaled
higher above 58 during middle of the year but declined below 52 in
second half of 2012. In the first half Gold outperformed Silver while
during second half it underperformed the latter.
The emergence of the ETFs in 2006 has absorbed much of the
surplus as the ETFs hold around 18,615 tonnes of metal. While
industrial demand accounts for around 55% of overall Silver
demand, investment demand has been the main driver of price
strength in 2012. COMEX warehouses have risen by 21%, an
indication that industrial demand remained soft in 2012. The
weakness in industrial demand has been borne out by the Silver
Institute's estimated 6% downturn in industrial demand this year.
Household demand for Silver like cutlery, flatware, and candlesticks
rose in ten years but the technology sector demand continued to
give support to the prices. The growing imports by key consumer
China also kept the physical demand upbeat. China's net imports of
Silver hit a record high as it quadrupled to 3,500 tonnes in 2011. But
according to country's official trade data, the total inflow in the first
10 months of 2012 slumped by 28 percent. China was a net exporter
of Silver for many years and the Chinese export used to be a major
component of global Silver supply. This scenario changed in 2007
when China became a net importer of Silver.
White metal Silver is also known as poor man Gold and growing
middle classes and savers in China, India and other Asian countries
have been investing in Silver which also act as store for value. As we
have seen Gold has risen above its historical nominal high in local
currency terms internationally and Silver is seen by many as a
cheaper alternative.
The industrial use of Silver will also determine the future price
direction. According to the Silver Institute's latest report, industrial
demand for Silver is expected to rebound in 2013 after losing
ground in 2012. The electronics industry is expected to be the
mainstay of industrial demand over the next two years, with growth
Annual Outlook
Silver Range : MCX: Rs 51000-75000
COMEX: $26-48
Dow & Gold Ratio
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
2
-
J
a
n
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1
1
2
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F
e
b
-
1
1
2
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M
a
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1
1
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-
A
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r
-
1
1
2
-
M
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-
1
1
2
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J
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1
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2
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J
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1
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1
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A
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1
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1
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2
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2
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1
2
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
2
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J
a
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1
1
2
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F
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1
1
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M
a
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1
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1
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1
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1
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1
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N
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-
1
1
2
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D
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1
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J
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1
2
2
-
F
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b
-
1
2
2
-
M
a
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1
2
2
-
A
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r
-
1
2
2
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
2
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
2
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
2
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
2
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
2
-
O
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t
-
1
2
2
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
2
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Gold & Crude Ratio (COMEX)
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
in emerging Asia the predominant force.
Industrial demand for Silver fell 2.7 percent in 2011, as industry
destocked and growth slowed. In 2013 also the pace of global
growth especially electronic industry will impact its industrial
demand. Silver being a precious metal it also has many industrial
applications and therefore will always have demand, especially
when the global economy comes fully out of recession.
Silver has many applications such as in Coins, Jewelry, Silverware,
Dentistry, Photography Electronics, Mirrors and Optics, Musical
instruments, Medical devices, instruments, Textiles and
Nanotechnology. The biggest growth area is in technology and that
is where a lot of demand will be generated as we further delve into
an era dominated by apple, iPhones, iPads etc. Silver is utilized
heavily in these high-tech devices. On an average, 6 cents of Silver is
used in each cell phone, according to industry reports. Since 1999,
consumption in electronics has increased 120%. Silver use in solar
panels began in 2000, and its usage is up 640% since then. Silver
was first used in biocides (antibacterial agents) in 2002 and, while a
small percentage of total Silver use, it has grown six-fold. New
applications will drive growth and offset slower growth from the
more traditional industrial uses such as electronics and
photography in 2013. Another new application that looks
promising and has potential to become a major user of the metal in
2013 is Silver zinc batteries. These rechargeable batteries are being
considered for the next generation of high performance batteries
for laptops and mobile electronic devices.
Silver demand in China, the world's second-largest user, may jump
as much as 10 percent in 2013 to a record as investors look to
preserve wealth. Consumption may climb to as much as 7,700
metric tonnes, after gaining 6 percent to 8 percent in 2012.
China's jewelry sales have jumped by 19.3 percent in the first eight
months of 2012 from a year earlier. According to China Nonferrous
Metals Industry Association Output in China, the third-biggest
producer may reach a record 13,000 tonnes in 2012 from mining,
smelting, refining and recycling.
Silver investment demand is also key factor to affect its prices in
2013. Global Silver ETF holding from nearly 5000 tonnes in 2007
has gone up to nearly 18000 tonnes in 2011 that is growth of more
than 250 per cent, but it remained flat in 2012.
On the supply front, mine output rose 1.4 percent in 2011, to a new
record of 23,688 tonnes according to the World Silver Survey.
Primary Silver mines provided 28 percent of mined metal, 37
percent came from by-products of lead and zinc, 21 percent from
copper mines and 14 percent from Gold mines. In the year 2013 by-
product output in India, Indonesia, Canada and Mexico will
replenish the supply of Silver.
Silver has dual properties of precious and base metals so it will be
impacted by global macro scenario in 2013 as well.
Gold Silver ratio is expected to tumble lower towards 45 in 2013
thus indicating that Silver can outpace Gold. Silver prices can take
key support of $26 in COMEX and 51000 in MCX in 2013. Silver will
face resistance at $36 and 66000 in COMEX and MCX. If it breaches
66000 then it may try to touch the high of 72000 levels in 2013.
Silver Futures (MCX) Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
40000.00
45000.00
50000.00
55000.00
60000.00
65000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
0.90
0.96 0.96
1.04
0.98
0.97
1.01
1.04
1.02
1.04
1.06 1.06
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Gold & Silver Ratio (COMEX)
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research

18

19
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Energy Annual Commentary & Outlook : Energy
Annual Commentary - Crude Oil
Crude oil which is also known as life blood of every economy,
showed wild swings as it traded in range of nearly $77-110 in
NYMEX and 4450-5600 in MCX in 2012. Crude oil prices managed
to remain flat during the first quarter but tumbled sharply lower in
second quarter due to rising greenback and Greece concerns.
During the second quarter, prices fell from nearly 28 % from $107
to below $77 in NYMEX and approx 20 percent from 5600 to below
4450 in MCX. In third and fourth quarter Crude prices managed to
recover but rather remained in volatile range as the uncertainty
over Euro zone crisis and slow down in emerging countries dented
the demand for Crude oil in these countries.
While tensions in the Middle East supported Crude prices,
particularly for the Brent contract but during the second half focus
shifted more toward the demand outlook in the world's two biggest
economies namely U.S. and China. China imported 250 million
tonnes of Crude oil in 2011, constituting 13.4 percent of global
Crude oil trade volume.
Meanwhile in 2012, the spread between Brent and WTI Crude oil
widened and tested above 23. In the beginning of 2012, the spread
was hovering near 8 and it accelerated towards 19 in March and 23
in November 2012. This spread hiked as Middle East tension
affected Brent Crude oil prices while ample supplies at Cushing
pressurized the WTI prices lower.
West Texas Intermediate Crude prices climbed in 2012 on concern
that tension with Iran would lead to military conflict in the Middle
East, where more than half the world's oil reserves are located.
Dispute between Iran and the West intensified recently during the
second half of 2012 as Tehran refused to permit the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from visiting a nuclear site which is
suspected of being used to develop nuclear weapons. Iranian oil
exports fell significantly in 2012 due to western sanctions.
In 2012, tropical storm and hurricane season which began on June 1
and extended to Nov. 30 also impacted Crude oil refinery as
hurricane sandy did worst damage. Hurricane sandy made some
refinery to shut down their operation in US thus pressuring the
prices lower in October 2012. Storm Sandy tore through the eastern
coast of the United States and forced the shutdown of refineries
roads and airports.
Annual Outlook
Crude Oil Range: MCX: Rs 4400-5800
NYMEX $75-105
Crude oil often known as black gold, can trade on volatile path in
2013 as the key factors which will be impacting the investor's
sentiment in Crude oil are the geopolitical tensions,
macroeconomic data and euro zone concerns along with movement
of Greenback. Tensions over Iran will also be the guiding factor for
the Crude oil prices.
Global recovery from slowdown will also be playing a vital role in
determining Crude oil prices in 2013. International Monetary Fund
(IMF) trimmed its global economic growth forecasts for 2012 and
2013. The IMF forecasts a shrinking of the euro zone economy of 0.4
percent in 2012 and a small positive growth of 0.2 percent this year.
The IMF cut its forecast for China to 8.2 percent, for India to 6
percent and for Brazil to 4 percent. According to the IMF world
economy will grow 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013.
Euro zone and US debt problem will be at centre stage in 2013. The
ECB's rate cut in 2012 and lagged effects of previous non-standard
measures are unlikely to offset negative economic trends
sufficiently to improve the near-term growth outlook. As for
Europe, it is facing a whole array of problems pertaining to the EU's
GDP worth of more than 16 trillion dollars.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has left
its forecast for growth in world demand in 2013 almost unchanged,
reducing it by 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 770,000 bpd. The
forecasted oil demand growth has a notable downside risk,
especially in the first half of the 2013. OPEC, which pumps more
than a third of the world's oil, reiterated a warning that factors
including economic weakness could shave 20 percent from 2013
global demand growth assessment.
OPEC production fell by 67,000 bpd in October 2012 to 30.95
million bpd led by declines in output in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and
Iran. Meanwhile Energy Information Administration (EIA) has
reduced its 2013 global demand growth estimated by 30,000 bpd to
890,000 bpd.
The spread between WTI and Brent can remain in range of 15-26 in
2013. If the Middle East situation worsens further this spread can
also exceed 27 in 2013.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Regarding oil prices at present times, it's not simply a supply and
demand equation. If it was, oil would be selling for $60 and not
nearly $90. There has not been a sustained disruption in oil's supply
anywhere in the world last year despite Iran tensions whereas
demand increased in China and other emerging countries. It was
seen that Middle East tension sustained for second half of 2012 and
that will continue to haunt Crude investors in year 2013.
Furthermore ongoing civil unrest in the Middle East (Syria, Egypt)
near major oil producing nations, has placed a geopolitical risk
premium on the price of oil, adding roughly $10-15 per barrel to
oil's price. Add the above to the possibility of supply disruptions in
Venezuela and Nigeria, and U.S. / E.U. sanctions imposed on oil
producer Iran over its nuclear program the underlying risk
premium can boost Crude prices going forward in 2013.
According to IEA new drilling techniques will continue to increase
U.S. oil production, and will play a role in increasing international
oil production, boosting global oil production by 9.3 million bpd to
102 million bpd by 2017. Meanwhile, global oil demand is expected
to rise to 95.7 million bpd by 2017
Moreover oil is not just an energy form; it's an alternative
investment, particularly for institutional investors (hedge funds,
investment funds, and other high-net-worth investors) as the mode
of portfolio allocation of these entities in Crude oil will also impact
its prices in 2013.
Recovery in the China's economy is expected to have a significant
impact on global demand as it consumed 480 million tonnes of oil
products in 2012 and can consume over 500 million tonnes in 2013.
Other energy forms have made inroads (Natural gas, nuclear,
renewable) on oil's dominance in the modern/ postmodern era, but
barring a major energy or technological breakthrough oil will
remain the dominant fuel. Crude oil prices in NYMEX has key
support at $76 and 4500 in MCX while it has key resistance near
$100 in NYMEX and 5650 in MCX.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Crude Futures (MCX) Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.87
0.94
0.98
1.04
1.05
1.07
1.05 1.05
1.01
0.97
1.00
0.98
4200.00
4400.00
4600.00
4800.00
5000.00
5200.00
5400.00
5600.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Brent & Light Sweet Crude Oil Spread($)
5
10
15
20
25
30
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research

20

21
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Energy Annual Commentary & Outlook : Energy
Annual Commentary - Crude Oil
Crude oil which is also known as life blood of every economy,
showed wild swings as it traded in range of nearly $77-110 in
NYMEX and 4450-5600 in MCX in 2012. Crude oil prices managed
to remain flat during the first quarter but tumbled sharply lower in
second quarter due to rising greenback and Greece concerns.
During the second quarter, prices fell from nearly 28 % from $107
to below $77 in NYMEX and approx 20 percent from 5600 to below
4450 in MCX. In third and fourth quarter Crude prices managed to
recover but rather remained in volatile range as the uncertainty
over Euro zone crisis and slow down in emerging countries dented
the demand for Crude oil in these countries.
While tensions in the Middle East supported Crude prices,
particularly for the Brent contract but during the second half focus
shifted more toward the demand outlook in the world's two biggest
economies namely U.S. and China. China imported 250 million
tonnes of Crude oil in 2011, constituting 13.4 percent of global
Crude oil trade volume.
Meanwhile in 2012, the spread between Brent and WTI Crude oil
widened and tested above 23. In the beginning of 2012, the spread
was hovering near 8 and it accelerated towards 19 in March and 23
in November 2012. This spread hiked as Middle East tension
affected Brent Crude oil prices while ample supplies at Cushing
pressurized the WTI prices lower.
West Texas Intermediate Crude prices climbed in 2012 on concern
that tension with Iran would lead to military conflict in the Middle
East, where more than half the world's oil reserves are located.
Dispute between Iran and the West intensified recently during the
second half of 2012 as Tehran refused to permit the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from visiting a nuclear site which is
suspected of being used to develop nuclear weapons. Iranian oil
exports fell significantly in 2012 due to western sanctions.
In 2012, tropical storm and hurricane season which began on June 1
and extended to Nov. 30 also impacted Crude oil refinery as
hurricane sandy did worst damage. Hurricane sandy made some
refinery to shut down their operation in US thus pressuring the
prices lower in October 2012. Storm Sandy tore through the eastern
coast of the United States and forced the shutdown of refineries
roads and airports.
Annual Outlook
Crude Oil Range: MCX: Rs 4400-5800
NYMEX $75-105
Crude oil often known as black gold, can trade on volatile path in
2013 as the key factors which will be impacting the investor's
sentiment in Crude oil are the geopolitical tensions,
macroeconomic data and euro zone concerns along with movement
of Greenback. Tensions over Iran will also be the guiding factor for
the Crude oil prices.
Global recovery from slowdown will also be playing a vital role in
determining Crude oil prices in 2013. International Monetary Fund
(IMF) trimmed its global economic growth forecasts for 2012 and
2013. The IMF forecasts a shrinking of the euro zone economy of 0.4
percent in 2012 and a small positive growth of 0.2 percent this year.
The IMF cut its forecast for China to 8.2 percent, for India to 6
percent and for Brazil to 4 percent. According to the IMF world
economy will grow 3.3 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013.
Euro zone and US debt problem will be at centre stage in 2013. The
ECB's rate cut in 2012 and lagged effects of previous non-standard
measures are unlikely to offset negative economic trends
sufficiently to improve the near-term growth outlook. As for
Europe, it is facing a whole array of problems pertaining to the EU's
GDP worth of more than 16 trillion dollars.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has left
its forecast for growth in world demand in 2013 almost unchanged,
reducing it by 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 770,000 bpd. The
forecasted oil demand growth has a notable downside risk,
especially in the first half of the 2013. OPEC, which pumps more
than a third of the world's oil, reiterated a warning that factors
including economic weakness could shave 20 percent from 2013
global demand growth assessment.
OPEC production fell by 67,000 bpd in October 2012 to 30.95
million bpd led by declines in output in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and
Iran. Meanwhile Energy Information Administration (EIA) has
reduced its 2013 global demand growth estimated by 30,000 bpd to
890,000 bpd.
The spread between WTI and Brent can remain in range of 15-26 in
2013. If the Middle East situation worsens further this spread can
also exceed 27 in 2013.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Regarding oil prices at present times, it's not simply a supply and
demand equation. If it was, oil would be selling for $60 and not
nearly $90. There has not been a sustained disruption in oil's supply
anywhere in the world last year despite Iran tensions whereas
demand increased in China and other emerging countries. It was
seen that Middle East tension sustained for second half of 2012 and
that will continue to haunt Crude investors in year 2013.
Furthermore ongoing civil unrest in the Middle East (Syria, Egypt)
near major oil producing nations, has placed a geopolitical risk
premium on the price of oil, adding roughly $10-15 per barrel to
oil's price. Add the above to the possibility of supply disruptions in
Venezuela and Nigeria, and U.S. / E.U. sanctions imposed on oil
producer Iran over its nuclear program the underlying risk
premium can boost Crude prices going forward in 2013.
According to IEA new drilling techniques will continue to increase
U.S. oil production, and will play a role in increasing international
oil production, boosting global oil production by 9.3 million bpd to
102 million bpd by 2017. Meanwhile, global oil demand is expected
to rise to 95.7 million bpd by 2017
Moreover oil is not just an energy form; it's an alternative
investment, particularly for institutional investors (hedge funds,
investment funds, and other high-net-worth investors) as the mode
of portfolio allocation of these entities in Crude oil will also impact
its prices in 2013.
Recovery in the China's economy is expected to have a significant
impact on global demand as it consumed 480 million tonnes of oil
products in 2012 and can consume over 500 million tonnes in 2013.
Other energy forms have made inroads (Natural gas, nuclear,
renewable) on oil's dominance in the modern/ postmodern era, but
barring a major energy or technological breakthrough oil will
remain the dominant fuel. Crude oil prices in NYMEX has key
support at $76 and 4500 in MCX while it has key resistance near
$100 in NYMEX and 5650 in MCX.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Crude Futures (MCX) Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.87
0.94
0.98
1.04
1.05
1.07
1.05 1.05
1.01
0.97
1.00
0.98
4200.00
4400.00
4600.00
4800.00
5000.00
5200.00
5400.00
5600.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Brent & Light Sweet Crude Oil Spread($)
5
10
15
20
25
30
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research

20

21
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Energy Annual Commentary & Outlook : Energy
Annual Commentary - Natural gas
Natural gas prices have registered life time low of nearly 100 in MCX
and below $2 in NYMEX in April 2012 as the excessive supply and
feeble demand kept the prices on back foot. But since May 2012
bulls stepped back with a vengeance and took its prices above $4 in
NYMEX and 216 in MCX in November 2012 ,which is just the double
the prices present in April 2012.
Natural gas prices which have shown steep rise after testing 10 year
low of below $2 in NYMEX rebounded sharply higher due to
production cuts by some producers and decline in rig count. Strong
coal to gas switching helped prices rebound to a 3-1/ 2-month high
of $2.76 in NYMEX and above 155 in MCX in second quarter of 2012.
Prices hit low of nearly $2 in NYMEX and 100 in MCX due to warm
weather last winter which resulted in Natural gas working
inventories to set new record seasonal highs. Natural gas supplies
reached currently more than 50 per cent above the five-year
average in April 2012 due to a boom in production in Pennsylvania,
Ohio, Texas and others states. Record low coal prices also resulted
in lower demand for Natural gas in the beginning of the year 2012. A
mountain of excess U.S. coal supplies squashed spring's recovery in
Natural gas prices that came as power plants snatched up the fuel as
it plumbed 10-year lows. According to Baker Hughes, the Natural
gas rig count was 613 as of April 27, 2012, down from a 2011 high of
936 in mid-October, making it the lowest rig count since 2002.
Lower prices resulted in production cuts during the second and
third quarter of 2012 as extremely low prices made it unprofitable
for producers to extract Natural gas. The mild winter and bountiful
supply from the new production technique of hydro fracturing, or
"fracking," shale formations has resulted in Natural gas supplies at
more than 50 per cent above the five-year average in April 2012.
That's due to a boom in production in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas and
others states.
Meanwhile hurricane sandy also increased the power demand in US
due to massive power outages in New Jersey, New York and
Pennsylvania in November 2012.But with decline in rig counts, a
slowdown in production and increasing demand from companies,
involved in electricity, utilities, chemicals, steel, aluminum and
fertilizers which used cheaper Natural gas prices as compared with
the coal prices. These factors continued to support the gas prices in
the second half of 2012.
Annual Outlook
Natural gas Range : MCX: Rs 160-270
NYMEX $3.3-4.9
After witnessing amazing recovery in 2012 as Natural gas prices
rose more than 100 percent, the journey in 2013 bulls will hold
upper hand going forward as decline rig count and increasing usage
will induce more Natural gas instead of other energy resource such
as coal and nuclear energy.
Natural gas in particular has witnessed unconventional Natural gas
stemming from new hydraulic fracturing or fracking technology
which has become a comparatively cheap, abundant source of
energy in the United States. Meanwhile new supply additions are
also possible in Europe, Russia, and the Middle East in 2013.
Furthermore, rising oil prices have hurt consumers and businesses
at the gas pump have looked to Natural gas as the alternative fuel.
With over 10 million trucks in the U.S. consuming 35 million gallons
of diesel a year, a shift to Natural gas could be extremely cost-
efficient. With the gap between Natural gas and diesel prices wider
than ever, trucks and cars powered by Natural gas are increasingly
popular for company fleets.
IEA anticipates that the US, China and Japan's consumption of
Natural gas will grow at an annual average rate of 2%, 13.1% and
1.1%, respectively, from 2011 to 2017. Global demand is
anticipated to rise at an annual average rate of 2.7% over the same
period. Countries outside of the U.S have higher gas prices of above
$10 Natural gas. And the reason for the enormous disparity in
prices is due to the lack of a global trading market in Natural gas, and
the difficulty or near impossibility of shipping the commodity.
During the latter part of 2012 Natural gas horizontal and vertical rig
counts have been continuously falling as many rigs have stopped
operating and this may lead to price hike. Increasing usage of
Natural gas will support the prices in near term. Meanwhile China's
gas output climbed 6.4 percent year-on-year to 87.8 billion cubic
meters between January and October 2012.
Reduced supply levels will have a significant impact on prices.
Imports of Natural gas from Canada are expected to fall in 2013
while exports to Mexico are projected to be higher as a result of a
loss of gas processing capability after an explosion at the Reynosa
plant. Meanwhile, power plants are likely to switch from coal to gas,
putting additional pressure on supply levels.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
The huge increases in Natural gas's supply are subjected to fracking
technology deployed safely. In some areas, fracking has led to
environmental damage and it is not appropriate for all, potential
drilling areas to perform fracking and that will restrict supply.
Natural gas is also making in-roads in transportation, in the fleet
vehicle market or where vehicles return to the same site to re-fuel.
Furthermore Natural gas will continue to displace oil in factories,
home heating, and displace coal (and other fuels) in electric power
generation. Comparatively cheap, abundant Natural gas is
displacing oil in the United States for several energy uses,
decreasing oil demand.
Weather conditions also dictate the trend of Natural gas in 2013
and the temperatures present in winter and summer induce
heating demand in winter and cooling demand in summers.
Natural gas prices will face resistance near $4.7 in NYMEX and 260
in MCX. While key support is near 160 in MCX and $2.6 in NYMEX.
Natural Gas Futures (MCX) Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.99 0.99
0.92
0.95
1.05
1.10
1.02
0.91
1.00
1.05
1.03
0.99
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index
Monthly closing price 2012
Natural Gas (Weekly) Rig Count & Average Spot Henry Hub Prices
Source: Baker Hughes
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
2
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
3
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
2
7
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
8
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
9
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
3
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
2
3
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
4
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
5
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
2
6
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
8
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
2
0
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
2
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
2
3
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
4
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
6
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Crude Oil & Natural Gas Ratio (NYMEX)
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

22

23
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Energy Annual Commentary & Outlook : Energy
Annual Commentary - Natural gas
Natural gas prices have registered life time low of nearly 100 in MCX
and below $2 in NYMEX in April 2012 as the excessive supply and
feeble demand kept the prices on back foot. But since May 2012
bulls stepped back with a vengeance and took its prices above $4 in
NYMEX and 216 in MCX in November 2012 ,which is just the double
the prices present in April 2012.
Natural gas prices which have shown steep rise after testing 10 year
low of below $2 in NYMEX rebounded sharply higher due to
production cuts by some producers and decline in rig count. Strong
coal to gas switching helped prices rebound to a 3-1/ 2-month high
of $2.76 in NYMEX and above 155 in MCX in second quarter of 2012.
Prices hit low of nearly $2 in NYMEX and 100 in MCX due to warm
weather last winter which resulted in Natural gas working
inventories to set new record seasonal highs. Natural gas supplies
reached currently more than 50 per cent above the five-year
average in April 2012 due to a boom in production in Pennsylvania,
Ohio, Texas and others states. Record low coal prices also resulted
in lower demand for Natural gas in the beginning of the year 2012. A
mountain of excess U.S. coal supplies squashed spring's recovery in
Natural gas prices that came as power plants snatched up the fuel as
it plumbed 10-year lows. According to Baker Hughes, the Natural
gas rig count was 613 as of April 27, 2012, down from a 2011 high of
936 in mid-October, making it the lowest rig count since 2002.
Lower prices resulted in production cuts during the second and
third quarter of 2012 as extremely low prices made it unprofitable
for producers to extract Natural gas. The mild winter and bountiful
supply from the new production technique of hydro fracturing, or
"fracking," shale formations has resulted in Natural gas supplies at
more than 50 per cent above the five-year average in April 2012.
That's due to a boom in production in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas and
others states.
Meanwhile hurricane sandy also increased the power demand in US
due to massive power outages in New Jersey, New York and
Pennsylvania in November 2012.But with decline in rig counts, a
slowdown in production and increasing demand from companies,
involved in electricity, utilities, chemicals, steel, aluminum and
fertilizers which used cheaper Natural gas prices as compared with
the coal prices. These factors continued to support the gas prices in
the second half of 2012.
Annual Outlook
Natural gas Range : MCX: Rs 160-270
NYMEX $3.3-4.9
After witnessing amazing recovery in 2012 as Natural gas prices
rose more than 100 percent, the journey in 2013 bulls will hold
upper hand going forward as decline rig count and increasing usage
will induce more Natural gas instead of other energy resource such
as coal and nuclear energy.
Natural gas in particular has witnessed unconventional Natural gas
stemming from new hydraulic fracturing or fracking technology
which has become a comparatively cheap, abundant source of
energy in the United States. Meanwhile new supply additions are
also possible in Europe, Russia, and the Middle East in 2013.
Furthermore, rising oil prices have hurt consumers and businesses
at the gas pump have looked to Natural gas as the alternative fuel.
With over 10 million trucks in the U.S. consuming 35 million gallons
of diesel a year, a shift to Natural gas could be extremely cost-
efficient. With the gap between Natural gas and diesel prices wider
than ever, trucks and cars powered by Natural gas are increasingly
popular for company fleets.
IEA anticipates that the US, China and Japan's consumption of
Natural gas will grow at an annual average rate of 2%, 13.1% and
1.1%, respectively, from 2011 to 2017. Global demand is
anticipated to rise at an annual average rate of 2.7% over the same
period. Countries outside of the U.S have higher gas prices of above
$10 Natural gas. And the reason for the enormous disparity in
prices is due to the lack of a global trading market in Natural gas, and
the difficulty or near impossibility of shipping the commodity.
During the latter part of 2012 Natural gas horizontal and vertical rig
counts have been continuously falling as many rigs have stopped
operating and this may lead to price hike. Increasing usage of
Natural gas will support the prices in near term. Meanwhile China's
gas output climbed 6.4 percent year-on-year to 87.8 billion cubic
meters between January and October 2012.
Reduced supply levels will have a significant impact on prices.
Imports of Natural gas from Canada are expected to fall in 2013
while exports to Mexico are projected to be higher as a result of a
loss of gas processing capability after an explosion at the Reynosa
plant. Meanwhile, power plants are likely to switch from coal to gas,
putting additional pressure on supply levels.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
The huge increases in Natural gas's supply are subjected to fracking
technology deployed safely. In some areas, fracking has led to
environmental damage and it is not appropriate for all, potential
drilling areas to perform fracking and that will restrict supply.
Natural gas is also making in-roads in transportation, in the fleet
vehicle market or where vehicles return to the same site to re-fuel.
Furthermore Natural gas will continue to displace oil in factories,
home heating, and displace coal (and other fuels) in electric power
generation. Comparatively cheap, abundant Natural gas is
displacing oil in the United States for several energy uses,
decreasing oil demand.
Weather conditions also dictate the trend of Natural gas in 2013
and the temperatures present in winter and summer induce
heating demand in winter and cooling demand in summers.
Natural gas prices will face resistance near $4.7 in NYMEX and 260
in MCX. While key support is near 160 in MCX and $2.6 in NYMEX.
Natural Gas Futures (MCX) Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.99 0.99
0.92
0.95
1.05
1.10
1.02
0.91
1.00
1.05
1.03
0.99
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index
Monthly closing price 2012
Natural Gas (Weekly) Rig Count & Average Spot Henry Hub Prices
Source: Baker Hughes
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
2
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
3
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
2
7
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
8
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
9
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
3
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
2
3
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
4
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
5
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
2
6
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
8
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
2
0
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
2
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
2
3
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
4
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
6
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Crude Oil & Natural Gas Ratio (NYMEX)
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

22

23
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
Annual Commentary - Base Metals
Base metals prices managed to end the year 2012 in a positive
territory except Nickel which ended on flat note. In the year 2012,
the euro zone concerns and U.S debt concerns kept the investors on
cautious note while the stimulus measures from various banks lend
underlying support. However the weakness in the local currency
rupee also aided the bullish sentiments.
Base metals got boost in 2012 from the news of European Central
Bank commitment to buying sovereign bonds in the short term,
fiscal stimulus package implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve
Bank, and major spending program unveiled by China. The People's
Bank of China, for its part, effected massive liquidity injections
worth US$57.92 billion. These measures had a strong impact on
investor expectations and played a key role in driving gains.
In the year 2012, lot of events taking place in the Euro zone, notably
political turmoil in Greece as well as the strong penalty imposed on
Spain by financial markets took centre stage which affected risk
sentiment.
Copper, the Leader of base metals pack, tested life time high of
above 460 in September when fed announced QE3. Overall Copper
prices traded in thin range of nearly 397-460 in 2012. Supply
tightness supported due to mining strikes supported the prices.
Copper market recorded a deficit of 267000 tonnes in January to
September 2012 which follows a surplus of 248000 tonnes in the
whole of 2011. Its prices registered positive gains in all three
quarters in 2012, except the second quarter.
Aluminum witnessed robust growth in second half of 2012 while
first half proved to be flat. Its prices managed to rise above 117 in
September while its prices took solid support near 100 in MCX.
Global Aluminium consumption during the first half grew around 3
percent as compared to 7 percent a year ago. Aluminium
consumption in the domestic market continues to outpace
production, making the country a net importer of the commodity.
Oversupply concerns made Nickel worst performing metal in 2012.
Nickel prices hovered in thin range as its prices took key support
near 850 and faced resistance near 1000 in MCX. Anglo American
Plc and Vale SA invested in new mines and expanded the existing
ones in order to get benefit from the better prices in 2007. As a
result there was huge surplus with the addition of new mines.
Prices came under pressure as surplus started in the year 2011 and
slower growth weakened demand for stainless steel, which
accounts for 65 percent of Nickel consumption. According to INSG,
production of Nickel is forecasted to rise to 1.69 million tonnes in
2012, up 5.6% from 1.60 million tonnes in 2011. The Group
highlighted that the global refined Nickel markets was likely to be in
surplus of 50000 metric tonnes in 2012. With the export ban by
Indonesia and 20% export duty that have started since May month
have tightened supply on the Nickel market in 2012. But China's
importers of laterite ores used to make Nickel have switched to the
Philippines as industry curbs reduced shipments from Indonesia.
Battery metal Lead was more or less flat in the first half of the year
2012 but prices moved swiftly higher in the second half of the year
from 102 to high of nearly 127 as the large queues in LME
warehouses coupled with decline in Lead production and better
demand from battery manufactures have supported the Lead prices
higher. According to ILSG China, Lead-acid battery production and
exports have recovered strongly after the wide-ranging
environmentally motivated cutbacks in the year 2011 and Lead
metal usage grew by 4.8% in 2012. Better data from vehicle sales in
China, which climbed 5.3 percent in October from a year earlier
along with U.S, supported Lead prices in second half. Metal struck
up in bank financing deals also gave boost to Lead prices. Financing
deals are considered to be good for the metal as they tend to support
the price of underlying asset without any thought on their
fundamentals.
Zinc metal also traded in a narrow range in the year 2012 as its
prices moved nearly in range of 96-115. Zinc showed steady growth
in all the quarters with the last two quarter showed quick gains.
China also started to build its state reserve purchases of Zinc but at a
pretty lower quantity as compared to 2011 during last the quarter
of 2012. The fall in purchase percentage is due to very high stocks
already available in the markets that are unused due to lack of
demand. Zinc stockpiles rose to record highs for fifth consecutive
years. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group
(ILZSG) Zinc markets were in surplus of 137000 tonnes in the
period of Jan-Sep 2012. The total reported inventories increased by
81000 tonnes during the first three quarters of 2012.
Macroeconomic uncertainties affected the base metals prices to
larger extent in the year 2012. Global PMI indicators along with ISM
survey affected the sentiments. China PMI improved during the
course of 2012 as the stimulus measures started taking effect.
Meanwhile U.S. manufacturing shrank from 51.7 points in October
to 49.5 points in November 2012 following two consecutive months
of growth China's manufacturing PMI for November stood at 50.5
points. Driven mostly by new business and manufacturing
increases, this 13-month high in China PMI suggests that the
Chinese economy is gradually rebounding.
2012 proved to be the year with full of global economic turbulences
with the euro zone one crises took centre stage for most part of the
year followed by the US debt crises and slowdown in China.
Combined efforts from the troika IMF, ECB and EU have also helped
in euro zone recovery in 2012.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

25
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
Annual Commentary - Base Metals
Base metals prices managed to end the year 2012 in a positive
territory except Nickel which ended on flat note. In the year 2012,
the euro zone concerns and U.S debt concerns kept the investors on
cautious note while the stimulus measures from various banks lend
underlying support. However the weakness in the local currency
rupee also aided the bullish sentiments.
Base metals got boost in 2012 from the news of European Central
Bank commitment to buying sovereign bonds in the short term,
fiscal stimulus package implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve
Bank, and major spending program unveiled by China. The People's
Bank of China, for its part, effected massive liquidity injections
worth US$57.92 billion. These measures had a strong impact on
investor expectations and played a key role in driving gains.
In the year 2012, lot of events taking place in the Euro zone, notably
political turmoil in Greece as well as the strong penalty imposed on
Spain by financial markets took centre stage which affected risk
sentiment.
Copper, the Leader of base metals pack, tested life time high of
above 460 in September when fed announced QE3. Overall Copper
prices traded in thin range of nearly 397-460 in 2012. Supply
tightness supported due to mining strikes supported the prices.
Copper market recorded a deficit of 267000 tonnes in January to
September 2012 which follows a surplus of 248000 tonnes in the
whole of 2011. Its prices registered positive gains in all three
quarters in 2012, except the second quarter.
Aluminum witnessed robust growth in second half of 2012 while
first half proved to be flat. Its prices managed to rise above 117 in
September while its prices took solid support near 100 in MCX.
Global Aluminium consumption during the first half grew around 3
percent as compared to 7 percent a year ago. Aluminium
consumption in the domestic market continues to outpace
production, making the country a net importer of the commodity.
Oversupply concerns made Nickel worst performing metal in 2012.
Nickel prices hovered in thin range as its prices took key support
near 850 and faced resistance near 1000 in MCX. Anglo American
Plc and Vale SA invested in new mines and expanded the existing
ones in order to get benefit from the better prices in 2007. As a
result there was huge surplus with the addition of new mines.
Prices came under pressure as surplus started in the year 2011 and
slower growth weakened demand for stainless steel, which
accounts for 65 percent of Nickel consumption. According to INSG,
production of Nickel is forecasted to rise to 1.69 million tonnes in
2012, up 5.6% from 1.60 million tonnes in 2011. The Group
highlighted that the global refined Nickel markets was likely to be in
surplus of 50000 metric tonnes in 2012. With the export ban by
Indonesia and 20% export duty that have started since May month
have tightened supply on the Nickel market in 2012. But China's
importers of laterite ores used to make Nickel have switched to the
Philippines as industry curbs reduced shipments from Indonesia.
Battery metal Lead was more or less flat in the first half of the year
2012 but prices moved swiftly higher in the second half of the year
from 102 to high of nearly 127 as the large queues in LME
warehouses coupled with decline in Lead production and better
demand from battery manufactures have supported the Lead prices
higher. According to ILSG China, Lead-acid battery production and
exports have recovered strongly after the wide-ranging
environmentally motivated cutbacks in the year 2011 and Lead
metal usage grew by 4.8% in 2012. Better data from vehicle sales in
China, which climbed 5.3 percent in October from a year earlier
along with U.S, supported Lead prices in second half. Metal struck
up in bank financing deals also gave boost to Lead prices. Financing
deals are considered to be good for the metal as they tend to support
the price of underlying asset without any thought on their
fundamentals.
Zinc metal also traded in a narrow range in the year 2012 as its
prices moved nearly in range of 96-115. Zinc showed steady growth
in all the quarters with the last two quarter showed quick gains.
China also started to build its state reserve purchases of Zinc but at a
pretty lower quantity as compared to 2011 during last the quarter
of 2012. The fall in purchase percentage is due to very high stocks
already available in the markets that are unused due to lack of
demand. Zinc stockpiles rose to record highs for fifth consecutive
years. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group
(ILZSG) Zinc markets were in surplus of 137000 tonnes in the
period of Jan-Sep 2012. The total reported inventories increased by
81000 tonnes during the first three quarters of 2012.
Macroeconomic uncertainties affected the base metals prices to
larger extent in the year 2012. Global PMI indicators along with ISM
survey affected the sentiments. China PMI improved during the
course of 2012 as the stimulus measures started taking effect.
Meanwhile U.S. manufacturing shrank from 51.7 points in October
to 49.5 points in November 2012 following two consecutive months
of growth China's manufacturing PMI for November stood at 50.5
points. Driven mostly by new business and manufacturing
increases, this 13-month high in China PMI suggests that the
Chinese economy is gradually rebounding.
2012 proved to be the year with full of global economic turbulences
with the euro zone one crises took centre stage for most part of the
year followed by the US debt crises and slowdown in China.
Combined efforts from the troika IMF, ECB and EU have also helped
in euro zone recovery in 2012.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

25
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
Annual Outlook
Copper Range: MCX: Rs 370-520
LME: $7200-9000
Red metal Copper is expected to remain on volatile path as various
stimulus measures by central banks and global recovery prospects
can support the prices while euro zone and U.S debt concerns can
cap the upside.
Copper, which is also known as Dr Copper will be impacted by the
changes in global economic conditions in 2013. The three key risks
will be sharp rebound in sovereign risk in Europe, Greece and Spain,
US fiscal cliff issue and possible US sovereign downgrade.
Despite the international backdrop and the European crisis, China
is expected to continue growing at above 7.5% and the supply
demand tightness in Copper will continue.
Structurally, the Copper market has shown a deficit throughout
2012 notwithstanding the uncertainty affecting the global
economy. While financial market volatility may keep demand down
in the early part of 2013 the structural surge in demand is expected
to persist in the long term.
China and India currently have an urban population of 50 percent
and 30 percent, respectively. As such, both countries have launched
massive construction projects designed to bring urban population
levels closer to the 70 percent prevailing in more developed
nations. These plans bode well for long-term Copper price
prospects. In a sign that metals demand is weak, Chile's Codelco, the
world's top Copper producer, has offered its Japanese Copper
customers a 2013 term premium of $85 a tonne, down 9 percent
from its 2012 premium. The labour disputes in key Chile mines like
Escondida and Codelco will affect Copper output in 2013.
U.S and China, the two main engines of global growth, are now
showing signs of recovery but Europe will take more time to
recover. The world's major developed economy central banks are
committed to maintaining low interest rates and providing
extraordinary amounts of liquidity to the world's financial system.
Concern is that consumption of Copper cathode is likely to grow
more slowly in China in 2013, cooling further after the pace of
growth looks set to drop by at least a third this year. Demand for
industrial metals such as Copper has weakened in 2012 as China's
economic growth slows, largely due to a decline in manufacturing
activity in its main export market Europe. China's Copper smelting
capacity is expected to rise by about 420,000 tonnes to around 5.6
million tonnes in 2012 compared with about 5.18 million tonnes in
2011 and the capacity can grow at similar pace in 2013. However,
increasing housing inflation in China could prompt the Chinese
government to refrain from relaxing curbs on the property market,
which in turn would be bearish for Copper.
Copper demand also comes from the building and construction
sectors, and the utilities sector (power generation and
transmission). The slowdown in the global economy as predicted
by IMF in 2013 will also affect the demand. The reduction in credit
rating of key euro zone countries will also affect Copper prices.
On positive side, recovery in US housing sector may continue to
assist the prices higher. US housing starts jumped to an 872,000
annual rate in October 2012 the most since July 2008, boosting
demand prospects for the metal used in pipes and wiring.
Meanwhile flat forward curves of Copper also points towards the
fact that the market fundamentals are tight at present but future
looks uncertain in 2013.
The International Monetary Fund cut global growth forecasts for
2013 to 3.6 percent even after central banks from the US to Japan
continue to pledge more action to bolster economies. But IMF
predictions of China's growth at 8.2 percent next year will be more
than double the global pace. Meanwhile it is expected that
slowdown in the demand from the west will be compensated by the
growth from the emerging countries like China.
Each metal's forward curve is a snapshot of future expectations
anchored on the current price. Copper that exhibit tightness of
supply, both at present and expected in the future, display almost
flat forward curves in middle of 2012 but during last part this
forward curve has become steeper indicating supply coming back in
markets.
According to the Copper Study Group, Copper supply will outpace
demand by 458,000 metric tonne in 2013, the first glut in four years
and the biggest in more than a decade. For any upside movement
from the current levels, Copper prices want to see quantitative
easing translate into demand for Copper.
Copper has maintained a narrow trading range for many months
and it will be interesting to note that when it will break the key
resistance of 470 in MCX and $8500 in LME. The key support will be
395 in MCX and $7200 in LME.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

26
Copper Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.91
0.97
1.00
1.01
0.99
1.01
1.05
1.07
1.01
0.98
0.99
1.02
400.00
405.00
410.00
415.00
420.00
425.00
430.00
435.00
440.00
445.00
450.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closingprice2012
Annual Outlook
Nickel Range: MCX: Rs 800-1250
LME: $15200-22000
Nickel can prove to be the dark horse in 2013 as it underperformed
other base metals in 2012. Nickel prices can get support from the
tightness in its ore supply and some production cut in mines. But
feeble demand for stainless steel sector can limit the upside in
Nickel.
INSG predicted that Nickel oversupply can increase up to 70000
metric tonnes in 2013. The production of refined Nickel is further
expected to increase to 1.78 million tonnes in 2013. The growth
contributors in these two years will be ramp up of operation of
Xstrata Koniambo in Caledonia and Barro Alto Mine of Anglo
America. Demand for refined Nickel is expected to increase to 1.71
million tonnes in 2013 as compared to 1.64 million tonnes in 2012.
More than 800,000 tonnes of planned or existing production
capacity is under threat of disruption in the next 12 to 18 months.
Mining operations will continue to give further direction to the
prices as the Xstrata announced that it has suspended operations at
its Cosmos Nickel mine in Western Australia in 2012.
Last year in May 2012 ban on Indonesia ore exports have affected
the ore supply as Indonesia's Nickel ore exports increased in
October 2012 due to buying by China. But slowly ore miners
resumed production after meeting tough government rules that
battered shipments in 2012 from the world's top exporter of the
metal. Nickel market will be affected by the ore export ban in 2013
also but to smaller extent as China has resorted to Philippines for
ores instead of Indonesia's. Indonesia imposed curbs and a tax on
exports as miners will no longer be able to export unprocessed ore
beyond a 2014 deadline.
China pig iron production is also one of the greatest threats to the
recovery in Nickel prices, which is a substitute made from lower
grade ores. Given the likely surge in Nickel-pig-iron production over
the next three to six months it will hamper the recovery in Nickel
prices. NPI output may be curtailed by curbs to Nickel-ore exports
from Indonesia, where the government is trying to spur the
development of the domestic refining industry. But China may shift
to importing more refined Nickel than relying to the same extent on
NPI in 2013. The use of Nickel for non-stainless applications has
increased the most rapidly, by 8 percent in 2012. Chinese Nickel Pig
Iron (NPI) has held relatively steady in spite of an Indonesian ban on
exports in 2012 and increased export duties on Nickel ore.
Most of the 2012 Nickel prices were entangled between weak global
steel sector and growing substitution to Chinese Nickel pig iron. The
movement of cancelled warrants and stock position in LME will
impact the prices in 2013. Fundamentally, the supply side weighed
on demand as Nickel market can remain in surplus in 2013. The
surplus of Nickel in first three quarters of 2012 stood at 89330
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

27
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters
Chinese Copper Imports
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
Annual Outlook
Copper Range: MCX: Rs 370-520
LME: $7200-9000
Red metal Copper is expected to remain on volatile path as various
stimulus measures by central banks and global recovery prospects
can support the prices while euro zone and U.S debt concerns can
cap the upside.
Copper, which is also known as Dr Copper will be impacted by the
changes in global economic conditions in 2013. The three key risks
will be sharp rebound in sovereign risk in Europe, Greece and Spain,
US fiscal cliff issue and possible US sovereign downgrade.
Despite the international backdrop and the European crisis, China
is expected to continue growing at above 7.5% and the supply
demand tightness in Copper will continue.
Structurally, the Copper market has shown a deficit throughout
2012 notwithstanding the uncertainty affecting the global
economy. While financial market volatility may keep demand down
in the early part of 2013 the structural surge in demand is expected
to persist in the long term.
China and India currently have an urban population of 50 percent
and 30 percent, respectively. As such, both countries have launched
massive construction projects designed to bring urban population
levels closer to the 70 percent prevailing in more developed
nations. These plans bode well for long-term Copper price
prospects. In a sign that metals demand is weak, Chile's Codelco, the
world's top Copper producer, has offered its Japanese Copper
customers a 2013 term premium of $85 a tonne, down 9 percent
from its 2012 premium. The labour disputes in key Chile mines like
Escondida and Codelco will affect Copper output in 2013.
U.S and China, the two main engines of global growth, are now
showing signs of recovery but Europe will take more time to
recover. The world's major developed economy central banks are
committed to maintaining low interest rates and providing
extraordinary amounts of liquidity to the world's financial system.
Concern is that consumption of Copper cathode is likely to grow
more slowly in China in 2013, cooling further after the pace of
growth looks set to drop by at least a third this year. Demand for
industrial metals such as Copper has weakened in 2012 as China's
economic growth slows, largely due to a decline in manufacturing
activity in its main export market Europe. China's Copper smelting
capacity is expected to rise by about 420,000 tonnes to around 5.6
million tonnes in 2012 compared with about 5.18 million tonnes in
2011 and the capacity can grow at similar pace in 2013. However,
increasing housing inflation in China could prompt the Chinese
government to refrain from relaxing curbs on the property market,
which in turn would be bearish for Copper.
Copper demand also comes from the building and construction
sectors, and the utilities sector (power generation and
transmission). The slowdown in the global economy as predicted
by IMF in 2013 will also affect the demand. The reduction in credit
rating of key euro zone countries will also affect Copper prices.
On positive side, recovery in US housing sector may continue to
assist the prices higher. US housing starts jumped to an 872,000
annual rate in October 2012 the most since July 2008, boosting
demand prospects for the metal used in pipes and wiring.
Meanwhile flat forward curves of Copper also points towards the
fact that the market fundamentals are tight at present but future
looks uncertain in 2013.
The International Monetary Fund cut global growth forecasts for
2013 to 3.6 percent even after central banks from the US to Japan
continue to pledge more action to bolster economies. But IMF
predictions of China's growth at 8.2 percent next year will be more
than double the global pace. Meanwhile it is expected that
slowdown in the demand from the west will be compensated by the
growth from the emerging countries like China.
Each metal's forward curve is a snapshot of future expectations
anchored on the current price. Copper that exhibit tightness of
supply, both at present and expected in the future, display almost
flat forward curves in middle of 2012 but during last part this
forward curve has become steeper indicating supply coming back in
markets.
According to the Copper Study Group, Copper supply will outpace
demand by 458,000 metric tonne in 2013, the first glut in four years
and the biggest in more than a decade. For any upside movement
from the current levels, Copper prices want to see quantitative
easing translate into demand for Copper.
Copper has maintained a narrow trading range for many months
and it will be interesting to note that when it will break the key
resistance of 470 in MCX and $8500 in LME. The key support will be
395 in MCX and $7200 in LME.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

26
Copper Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.91
0.97
1.00
1.01
0.99
1.01
1.05
1.07
1.01
0.98
0.99
1.02
400.00
405.00
410.00
415.00
420.00
425.00
430.00
435.00
440.00
445.00
450.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closingprice2012
Annual Outlook
Nickel Range: MCX: Rs 800-1250
LME: $15200-22000
Nickel can prove to be the dark horse in 2013 as it underperformed
other base metals in 2012. Nickel prices can get support from the
tightness in its ore supply and some production cut in mines. But
feeble demand for stainless steel sector can limit the upside in
Nickel.
INSG predicted that Nickel oversupply can increase up to 70000
metric tonnes in 2013. The production of refined Nickel is further
expected to increase to 1.78 million tonnes in 2013. The growth
contributors in these two years will be ramp up of operation of
Xstrata Koniambo in Caledonia and Barro Alto Mine of Anglo
America. Demand for refined Nickel is expected to increase to 1.71
million tonnes in 2013 as compared to 1.64 million tonnes in 2012.
More than 800,000 tonnes of planned or existing production
capacity is under threat of disruption in the next 12 to 18 months.
Mining operations will continue to give further direction to the
prices as the Xstrata announced that it has suspended operations at
its Cosmos Nickel mine in Western Australia in 2012.
Last year in May 2012 ban on Indonesia ore exports have affected
the ore supply as Indonesia's Nickel ore exports increased in
October 2012 due to buying by China. But slowly ore miners
resumed production after meeting tough government rules that
battered shipments in 2012 from the world's top exporter of the
metal. Nickel market will be affected by the ore export ban in 2013
also but to smaller extent as China has resorted to Philippines for
ores instead of Indonesia's. Indonesia imposed curbs and a tax on
exports as miners will no longer be able to export unprocessed ore
beyond a 2014 deadline.
China pig iron production is also one of the greatest threats to the
recovery in Nickel prices, which is a substitute made from lower
grade ores. Given the likely surge in Nickel-pig-iron production over
the next three to six months it will hamper the recovery in Nickel
prices. NPI output may be curtailed by curbs to Nickel-ore exports
from Indonesia, where the government is trying to spur the
development of the domestic refining industry. But China may shift
to importing more refined Nickel than relying to the same extent on
NPI in 2013. The use of Nickel for non-stainless applications has
increased the most rapidly, by 8 percent in 2012. Chinese Nickel Pig
Iron (NPI) has held relatively steady in spite of an Indonesian ban on
exports in 2012 and increased export duties on Nickel ore.
Most of the 2012 Nickel prices were entangled between weak global
steel sector and growing substitution to Chinese Nickel pig iron. The
movement of cancelled warrants and stock position in LME will
impact the prices in 2013. Fundamentally, the supply side weighed
on demand as Nickel market can remain in surplus in 2013. The
surplus of Nickel in first three quarters of 2012 stood at 89330
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

27
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters
Chinese Copper Imports
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
metric tonnes.
But the stainless steel alloy (consumes nearly 65% of the metals) is
also expected to continue the seasonal growth with higher
European demand and the same may also support Nickel prices
higher.
Nickel has steady upward sloping forward curve, which suggests
that the metal is characterized by chronic oversupply.
The monetary stance of China in 2013 and stimulus will also have
impact on the prices. Last year Chinese central bank injected a
record high of 395 billion Yuan (62.7 billion US dollars) into the
financial system.
It is anticipated that demand in China may slow as the country is
moving from a re-stocking to a de-stocking phase in 2013. Nickel
could suffer from a forecasted 44,000 mt surplus as delayed
projects start to ramp-up production in 2013. However scope for
accelerated consumption of NPI in China, and the stockpiles
accumulated in 2012 can keep the prices under stress.
Meanwhile the scale of supply disruptions and disappointments
may spring an upside surprise in Nickel prices in 2013. If the euro
crisis recedes and the U.S avoids falling off its own fiscal cliff then
the sentiment can be positive for Nickel in 2013.
China imports remain high with consumption surging which can lift
Nickel prices in 2013. Significant primary capacity build up is
expected in next couple years, but output is somewhat restrained
due to cutbacks and delays in mines.
Nickel prices have key resistance of 1000 in MCX and $22000 in
LME while 850 is the key support in MCX and $15800 in LME.
Nickel Future Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
1.03
1.07
1.04
1.07
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.03
0.98
0.93
0.89
0.97
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
900.00
950.00
1000.00
1050.00
1100.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Annual Outlook
Zinc Range: MCX: Rs 95-130
LME: $1800-2400
Zinc, which proved to be quite volatile in the year gone by will
continue to remain choppy in 2013. Zinc is used mainly as an anti-
corrosive to galvanize steel for the construction and auto sectors
and the growth in steel sector will impact prices in 2013.
The International Lead & Zinc Study Group expects that Zinc supply
may continue to exceed demand in the world refined Zinc metal
market both in 2012 and 2013. A surplus of 153,000 mt is
forecasted in 2012 with a more significant excess of 293,000 mt
anticipated in 2013. It is anticipated that there will be a small
decline in world demand for refined Zinc metal of 0.3% to 12.71
million mt in 2012 followed by a 3.8% increase to 13.19 million mt
in 2013. Global Zinc mine output is forecasted to increase by 5% in
2012 to 13.60 million mt and a further 2.7% in 2013 to 13.96
million mt. In 2013, a further forecast increase in mine output of
China by 2.7% is expected to be supplemented by additional
production in a number of other countries including Australia,
Burkina Faso, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Portugal and the US.
Silver-Zinc vehicle SLI batteries, which have 45 percent more power
and a 30-percent longer life, are also commercially available and
competitively priced. So demand for SLI batteries can pent up Zinc
demand in 2013. China is also trying to cut the production levels of
Zinc in order to curtail steady growth in unused Zinc. Similar
production declines are noted in world markets but the pace of
decline is on a lower side.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

28
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
LME inventories are in Zinc at all time highs thanks to rising
financing deals that are acting as a last resort for producers and
stakeholders. Due to the problems ranging from debt to steady
supplies LME inventories are expected to swell further and
therefore putting additional pressure on the prices. Zinc will also be
closely watched as financing deals are considered good for the
metal as they tend to support the price of underlying asset without
any thought on their fundamentals. It is also notable that financing
deals happen only in case of oversupply of particular metal. Spot
premiums prevailing in LME will also impact Zinc prices in 2013.
Nearly fifty percent of Zinc is used for galvanizing to protect steel
from corrosion. So the galvanizing demand along with die casting
demand will affect its prices in 2013. More than two thirds of metal
demand comes in the form of steel galvanization. If steel supply and
demand takes a further hit, it would be detrimental for the basic
fundamentals of Zinc. Constructive and continuous improvement in
demand from steel sector is going to influence the prices.
China has in recent times shifted from exporter to importer of Zinc
with consumption surging & production flattening. Imports of Zinc
have increased in the China due to its usage in Steel industries for
galvanizing. China's Zinc ore and concentrate imports rose by 5.9%
month on month in October 2012. The country imported 203,022
tonnes of Zinc concentrate in Oct 2012 up 4.6% from the same
month in 2011.
Mine capacity has built up globally and refined production has
increased. The pace of production will also impact Zinc prices in
2013. There has been rise in new capacity addition in Neves ,Corvo,
Ozernoye, Almagrera mines in Europe and Rampura-Agucha,
Shaimerden, Duddar, Khandiza mines in Asia along with Qued
Amizour, Perkoa in Africa. The pace of buying by the China State
reserves will influence Zinc prices in 2013. State reserve purchases
of Zinc were lower quantity in 2012 as compared to 2011. The fall in
purchase percentage is due to very high stocks already available in
the markets that are unused due to lack of demand. Zinc has steady
upward sloping forward curve which suggest that the metal is
characterized by chronic oversupply.
Demand from some sectors like construction, transport, consumer
goods and electrical appliances and general engineering will also
guide Zinc prices in 2013. Meanwhile in 2013 , the euro zone debt
problems along with pace of recovery in US and China is likely to
affect the price movement of Zinc.
Zinc will face key support of 95 in MCX and $1800 at LME while key
resistance will be 116 in MCX and $2200 in LME.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

29
Zinc Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.98
1.03
1.01
1.00
0.97
0.95
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.98
1.01
1.06
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
MCX Lead Zinc Spread (Monthly)
-4.00
1.00
6.00
11.00
16.00
21.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
metric tonnes.
But the stainless steel alloy (consumes nearly 65% of the metals) is
also expected to continue the seasonal growth with higher
European demand and the same may also support Nickel prices
higher.
Nickel has steady upward sloping forward curve, which suggests
that the metal is characterized by chronic oversupply.
The monetary stance of China in 2013 and stimulus will also have
impact on the prices. Last year Chinese central bank injected a
record high of 395 billion Yuan (62.7 billion US dollars) into the
financial system.
It is anticipated that demand in China may slow as the country is
moving from a re-stocking to a de-stocking phase in 2013. Nickel
could suffer from a forecasted 44,000 mt surplus as delayed
projects start to ramp-up production in 2013. However scope for
accelerated consumption of NPI in China, and the stockpiles
accumulated in 2012 can keep the prices under stress.
Meanwhile the scale of supply disruptions and disappointments
may spring an upside surprise in Nickel prices in 2013. If the euro
crisis recedes and the U.S avoids falling off its own fiscal cliff then
the sentiment can be positive for Nickel in 2013.
China imports remain high with consumption surging which can lift
Nickel prices in 2013. Significant primary capacity build up is
expected in next couple years, but output is somewhat restrained
due to cutbacks and delays in mines.
Nickel prices have key resistance of 1000 in MCX and $22000 in
LME while 850 is the key support in MCX and $15800 in LME.
Nickel Future Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
1.03
1.07
1.04
1.07
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.03
0.98
0.93
0.89
0.97
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
900.00
950.00
1000.00
1050.00
1100.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Annual Outlook
Zinc Range: MCX: Rs 95-130
LME: $1800-2400
Zinc, which proved to be quite volatile in the year gone by will
continue to remain choppy in 2013. Zinc is used mainly as an anti-
corrosive to galvanize steel for the construction and auto sectors
and the growth in steel sector will impact prices in 2013.
The International Lead & Zinc Study Group expects that Zinc supply
may continue to exceed demand in the world refined Zinc metal
market both in 2012 and 2013. A surplus of 153,000 mt is
forecasted in 2012 with a more significant excess of 293,000 mt
anticipated in 2013. It is anticipated that there will be a small
decline in world demand for refined Zinc metal of 0.3% to 12.71
million mt in 2012 followed by a 3.8% increase to 13.19 million mt
in 2013. Global Zinc mine output is forecasted to increase by 5% in
2012 to 13.60 million mt and a further 2.7% in 2013 to 13.96
million mt. In 2013, a further forecast increase in mine output of
China by 2.7% is expected to be supplemented by additional
production in a number of other countries including Australia,
Burkina Faso, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Portugal and the US.
Silver-Zinc vehicle SLI batteries, which have 45 percent more power
and a 30-percent longer life, are also commercially available and
competitively priced. So demand for SLI batteries can pent up Zinc
demand in 2013. China is also trying to cut the production levels of
Zinc in order to curtail steady growth in unused Zinc. Similar
production declines are noted in world markets but the pace of
decline is on a lower side.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

28
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
LME inventories are in Zinc at all time highs thanks to rising
financing deals that are acting as a last resort for producers and
stakeholders. Due to the problems ranging from debt to steady
supplies LME inventories are expected to swell further and
therefore putting additional pressure on the prices. Zinc will also be
closely watched as financing deals are considered good for the
metal as they tend to support the price of underlying asset without
any thought on their fundamentals. It is also notable that financing
deals happen only in case of oversupply of particular metal. Spot
premiums prevailing in LME will also impact Zinc prices in 2013.
Nearly fifty percent of Zinc is used for galvanizing to protect steel
from corrosion. So the galvanizing demand along with die casting
demand will affect its prices in 2013. More than two thirds of metal
demand comes in the form of steel galvanization. If steel supply and
demand takes a further hit, it would be detrimental for the basic
fundamentals of Zinc. Constructive and continuous improvement in
demand from steel sector is going to influence the prices.
China has in recent times shifted from exporter to importer of Zinc
with consumption surging & production flattening. Imports of Zinc
have increased in the China due to its usage in Steel industries for
galvanizing. China's Zinc ore and concentrate imports rose by 5.9%
month on month in October 2012. The country imported 203,022
tonnes of Zinc concentrate in Oct 2012 up 4.6% from the same
month in 2011.
Mine capacity has built up globally and refined production has
increased. The pace of production will also impact Zinc prices in
2013. There has been rise in new capacity addition in Neves ,Corvo,
Ozernoye, Almagrera mines in Europe and Rampura-Agucha,
Shaimerden, Duddar, Khandiza mines in Asia along with Qued
Amizour, Perkoa in Africa. The pace of buying by the China State
reserves will influence Zinc prices in 2013. State reserve purchases
of Zinc were lower quantity in 2012 as compared to 2011. The fall in
purchase percentage is due to very high stocks already available in
the markets that are unused due to lack of demand. Zinc has steady
upward sloping forward curve which suggest that the metal is
characterized by chronic oversupply.
Demand from some sectors like construction, transport, consumer
goods and electrical appliances and general engineering will also
guide Zinc prices in 2013. Meanwhile in 2013 , the euro zone debt
problems along with pace of recovery in US and China is likely to
affect the price movement of Zinc.
Zinc will face key support of 95 in MCX and $1800 at LME while key
resistance will be 116 in MCX and $2200 in LME.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

29
Zinc Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.98
1.03
1.01
1.00
0.97
0.95
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.98
1.01
1.06
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
MCX Lead Zinc Spread (Monthly)
-4.00
1.00
6.00
11.00
16.00
21.00
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
1
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
1
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
1
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
1
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
1
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
1
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
1
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
1
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2
1
-
F
e
b
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
r
-
1
2
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2
1
-
M
a
y
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2
1
-
J
u
l
-
1
2
1
-
A
u
g
-
1
2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
2
1
-
O
c
t
-
1
2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2
1
-
D
e
c
-
1
2
Source: Reuters & SMC Research Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
Annual outlook
Lead Range: MCX: Rs 100-150
LME: $1800-2650
Battery metal Lead has been favored by the bulls in the year gone by
and will continue to shine in 2013 as well on the back of increased
demand from battery manufacturers.
In 2013, outlook for the Lead market remains positive, with good
demand growth expected from the industrial battery sector and for
Sealed Lead Acid batteries (SLA), which are used to power e-bikes.
Lead is majorly used in car batteries, mobiles and e bikes. Its
corrosion resistant quality makes it suitable to store sulfuric acid.
Due to its malleability and anti corrosion characteristics it is also
used in building construction. The regime to follow carbon
emission norms has also hit Lead production. Replacement battery
demand is growing in India along with that the power shortages has
increased options for alternative energy. Steady growth in
automobile battery demand in Asia Pacific, especially India and
China are expected to keep the Lead prices well supported in 2013.
Pace of auto sales in 2013 will also influence the Lead prices.
Meanwhile vehicle sales in China in the first eight months of the
2012 were up by 3.3 percent. The steady increase in automotive
demand in regions other than Europe, more so importantly in
developing markets such as Asia Pacific and Latin America and
subsequent rise in automotive production, will give support to the
Lead acid batteries market. Global market for Automotive Lead Acid
Batteries is projected to reach US$43.9 billion by 2018, primarily
driven by increase in automotive production, particularly in
developing markets such as China and India and growing
integration of start stop technology in new age automobiles.
Meanwhile stringent pollution norms in key producing countries
will influence its demand in 2013. Heightened concerns about
global warming, urban pollution, rising fuel prices and government
legislations to curb emissions are the key factors driving the
adoption of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and electric vehicles
(EVs). With electric car manufacturers focusing on incorporating
innovative battery technologies in their cars as Lead acid batteries
can improve efficiency, lengthen the discharge cycle, and enhance
the storage capacity of batteries are poised to benefit, which will
support the Lead prices.
The pick-up in mine output and the probable restart of the 115,000-
tonne-per-year La Oroya smelter in Peru and the 80,000-tonne-per-
year Portovesme smelter in Italy in 2013 will lead to more primary
refined production. While China seems to be able to build industrial
capacity in double quick time, there is great potential for secondary
Lead production in China to grow in 2013. The proportion of
secondary production in China's refined output was 35 percent in
2011. It is 60 percent in Japan, 68 percent in Germany and 91
percent in the US.
According to ILSG estimates global usage of refined Lead metal is
expected to increase by 3.4% to 10.80 million tonnes in 2012 and by
a further 3.3% to 11.15 million tonnes in 2013. In China, Lead-acid
battery production and exports have recovered strongly after the
environmentally motivated cutbacks in 2011 and Lead metal usage
is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2012, and 4.7% in 2013. Global Lead
mine production is forecasted to increase by 10.9% in 2012 to 5.21
million tonnes and 2.8% in 2013 to 5.36 million tonnes due to
increased production in China. Output in the rest of the world will
be relatively stable as increases in Mexico, Peru and Russia are
offset by a reduction in Canada. Global production of refined Lead
metal in 2012 is expected to increase by 2.9% to 10.90 million
tonnes. In 2013 a further rise of 3.8% to 11.32 million tonnes is
expected with opening of both new capacity and reopening of
capacity placed on care and maintenance in recent years. The
forecast is for the global supply of refined Lead metal to exceed
demand by about 108,000 tonnes in 2012 and by 174,000 tonnes in
2013. China Lead production is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2013
according to ILSG.
Lead forward curve is upward sloping at steady pace, which suggest
that the metal is characterized by chronic oversupply. Bulls will
continue to dominate this metal in 2013 with ever increasing
demand for batteries in various applications globally.
In 2013 the Lead Zinc spread may expand further and widen
towards 25 in MCX as Lead prices will continue to outperform Zinc
amid strong fundamentals.
Lead has key support of 100 in MCX and $1800 in LME and key
resistance of 140 in MCX and $2600 in LME.
Lead Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.98
1.04
1.00
1.00
0.94
0.92
1.02
1.04
1.05
1.02
0.99
1.02
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

30
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
Annual outlook
Aluminium Range: MCX: Rs 100-130
LME: $1800-2400
White metal Aluminum may trade with upside bias in 2013.
Increase in demand from key consuming sectors has been offset by
oversupply concerns last year. Also the movement of crude oil
prices in 2013 will be watched as the energy constitutes 35-40 per
cent of aluminum costs. The demand trend from the sectors like
packaging, aerospace, automobiles, construction and power will
influence its prices in 2013.
Recently large capacity expansions undertaken by the primary
Aluminium players outweighed anticipated growth in demand and
created surplus capacity. Aluminum have steepest upward sloping
forward curve as compared to other base metals which suggest that
the metal is in excessive supply. New mines capacity addition in
2013 can be seen in Korba, Jharsuguda, Mahan in Asia, Liancheng,
Pingguo, Tuoketuo Datang, Zhaqi, Yinchuan/ Ningdong, Zhongning
mines in China.
According to Norsk Hydro ASA Aluminium market ex-China in 2013
appears balanced and there is limited net supply growth going
forward. China's market is balanced at present, but it is adding
primary Aluminium capacity in line with anticipated demand
growth in 2012-15.
China has shown that the country's output growth has been rising
in recent months, and as November value of the HSBC Purchasing
Managers' index has shown an increase in the manufacturing
sector. If China's manufacturing sector continues to recover, and
spending on infrastructure improves, its appetite for aluminum will
increase thereby giving support to the prices in 2013. Meanwhile
China stockpiling in 2013 will also give boost to the aluminum
prices.
According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS),
consumption in US is estimated to rise by 10.8 percent in the year
2012.
On the supply front, Aluminium global market remains at a surplus
despite the announcements by the major producers to cut output.
Consistent rise in the energy costs and environmental issues along
with emphasis on the use of recycled Aluminium has induced
producers to reduce their output. According to Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU), primary global Aluminium output is
estimated to increase to 48,228 thousand tonne in 2013 a rise of 4.2
percent as compared to expectation of 46,278 thousand tonne in
2012. Indian firm led by Hindalco Industries Ltd, will continue to
add capacities in 2013. Indian Aluminium companies have an upper
hand as compared to its global peers solely because they have
captive raw materials such as bauxite and coal. Hindalco's 1.5-
million-tonne (mt) Utkal alumina refinery project in Odisha and
359-kilo-tonne (kt) Mahan Aluminium smelter in Madhya Pradesh
will begin commissioning by March-April 2013
According to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) Daily average
primary aluminum output displayed a modest increase in October
2012 at 67,200 tonne as against 66,900 tonne in September
In China, daily average Aluminium production was 55,400 tonne in
October, down from 55,700 in September 2012. Overall China
consumption and production surged in 2012 which is expected to
continue in 2013 as well.
The aluminum struck up in bank financing deals will continue to
affect the prices in 2013. As per the market expectations, at least 60-
70 per cent of Aluminium stocks in LME warehouses are backed by
financing deals wherein banks and traders trade in the Aluminium
price curve by buying spot and selling forward up to 15 months at a
higher price. Financing transactions pegged to metal inventory will
not end anytime in 2013 as US or other major central banks globally
would not go for increase in rates in the medium to long term.
The growing stockpiles of aluminum will be a concern in 2013 as
stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses stood highest
since 2011 at 434,363 tonnes in last quarter of 2012. Aluminum
premium prevailing in the key countries will continue to influence
aluminum prices in 2013.
Expectation of rise in the aluminum demand from the automotive
sector along with infrastructure developments in the key
consuming nations will be the prime factors to be gauged in 2013.
The auto sales in US rose to 15 percent touching to a five year high in
the month of November 2012 and stood at 1.14 million vehicles.
The steady rise in auto sales in US and China shows that this sector
will enhance its demand in 2013. Aluminium is also used from
airliners to drinks cans and its demand pattern in 2013 will have big
impact on the prices.
Aluminum prices is expected to take key support near 100 in MCX
and $1880 in LME and resistance will be 125 in MCX and $2300 in
LME in 2013.
Aluminium Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.95
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.04
1.02
1.03
0.98
0.99
1.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

31
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
Annual outlook
Lead Range: MCX: Rs 100-150
LME: $1800-2650
Battery metal Lead has been favored by the bulls in the year gone by
and will continue to shine in 2013 as well on the back of increased
demand from battery manufacturers.
In 2013, outlook for the Lead market remains positive, with good
demand growth expected from the industrial battery sector and for
Sealed Lead Acid batteries (SLA), which are used to power e-bikes.
Lead is majorly used in car batteries, mobiles and e bikes. Its
corrosion resistant quality makes it suitable to store sulfuric acid.
Due to its malleability and anti corrosion characteristics it is also
used in building construction. The regime to follow carbon
emission norms has also hit Lead production. Replacement battery
demand is growing in India along with that the power shortages has
increased options for alternative energy. Steady growth in
automobile battery demand in Asia Pacific, especially India and
China are expected to keep the Lead prices well supported in 2013.
Pace of auto sales in 2013 will also influence the Lead prices.
Meanwhile vehicle sales in China in the first eight months of the
2012 were up by 3.3 percent. The steady increase in automotive
demand in regions other than Europe, more so importantly in
developing markets such as Asia Pacific and Latin America and
subsequent rise in automotive production, will give support to the
Lead acid batteries market. Global market for Automotive Lead Acid
Batteries is projected to reach US$43.9 billion by 2018, primarily
driven by increase in automotive production, particularly in
developing markets such as China and India and growing
integration of start stop technology in new age automobiles.
Meanwhile stringent pollution norms in key producing countries
will influence its demand in 2013. Heightened concerns about
global warming, urban pollution, rising fuel prices and government
legislations to curb emissions are the key factors driving the
adoption of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and electric vehicles
(EVs). With electric car manufacturers focusing on incorporating
innovative battery technologies in their cars as Lead acid batteries
can improve efficiency, lengthen the discharge cycle, and enhance
the storage capacity of batteries are poised to benefit, which will
support the Lead prices.
The pick-up in mine output and the probable restart of the 115,000-
tonne-per-year La Oroya smelter in Peru and the 80,000-tonne-per-
year Portovesme smelter in Italy in 2013 will lead to more primary
refined production. While China seems to be able to build industrial
capacity in double quick time, there is great potential for secondary
Lead production in China to grow in 2013. The proportion of
secondary production in China's refined output was 35 percent in
2011. It is 60 percent in Japan, 68 percent in Germany and 91
percent in the US.
According to ILSG estimates global usage of refined Lead metal is
expected to increase by 3.4% to 10.80 million tonnes in 2012 and by
a further 3.3% to 11.15 million tonnes in 2013. In China, Lead-acid
battery production and exports have recovered strongly after the
environmentally motivated cutbacks in 2011 and Lead metal usage
is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2012, and 4.7% in 2013. Global Lead
mine production is forecasted to increase by 10.9% in 2012 to 5.21
million tonnes and 2.8% in 2013 to 5.36 million tonnes due to
increased production in China. Output in the rest of the world will
be relatively stable as increases in Mexico, Peru and Russia are
offset by a reduction in Canada. Global production of refined Lead
metal in 2012 is expected to increase by 2.9% to 10.90 million
tonnes. In 2013 a further rise of 3.8% to 11.32 million tonnes is
expected with opening of both new capacity and reopening of
capacity placed on care and maintenance in recent years. The
forecast is for the global supply of refined Lead metal to exceed
demand by about 108,000 tonnes in 2012 and by 174,000 tonnes in
2013. China Lead production is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2013
according to ILSG.
Lead forward curve is upward sloping at steady pace, which suggest
that the metal is characterized by chronic oversupply. Bulls will
continue to dominate this metal in 2013 with ever increasing
demand for batteries in various applications globally.
In 2013 the Lead Zinc spread may expand further and widen
towards 25 in MCX as Lead prices will continue to outperform Zinc
amid strong fundamentals.
Lead has key support of 100 in MCX and $1800 in LME and key
resistance of 140 in MCX and $2600 in LME.
Lead Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.98
1.04
1.00
1.00
0.94
0.92
1.02
1.04
1.05
1.02
0.99
1.02
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

30
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook : Base Metals
Annual outlook
Aluminium Range: MCX: Rs 100-130
LME: $1800-2400
White metal Aluminum may trade with upside bias in 2013.
Increase in demand from key consuming sectors has been offset by
oversupply concerns last year. Also the movement of crude oil
prices in 2013 will be watched as the energy constitutes 35-40 per
cent of aluminum costs. The demand trend from the sectors like
packaging, aerospace, automobiles, construction and power will
influence its prices in 2013.
Recently large capacity expansions undertaken by the primary
Aluminium players outweighed anticipated growth in demand and
created surplus capacity. Aluminum have steepest upward sloping
forward curve as compared to other base metals which suggest that
the metal is in excessive supply. New mines capacity addition in
2013 can be seen in Korba, Jharsuguda, Mahan in Asia, Liancheng,
Pingguo, Tuoketuo Datang, Zhaqi, Yinchuan/ Ningdong, Zhongning
mines in China.
According to Norsk Hydro ASA Aluminium market ex-China in 2013
appears balanced and there is limited net supply growth going
forward. China's market is balanced at present, but it is adding
primary Aluminium capacity in line with anticipated demand
growth in 2012-15.
China has shown that the country's output growth has been rising
in recent months, and as November value of the HSBC Purchasing
Managers' index has shown an increase in the manufacturing
sector. If China's manufacturing sector continues to recover, and
spending on infrastructure improves, its appetite for aluminum will
increase thereby giving support to the prices in 2013. Meanwhile
China stockpiling in 2013 will also give boost to the aluminum
prices.
According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS),
consumption in US is estimated to rise by 10.8 percent in the year
2012.
On the supply front, Aluminium global market remains at a surplus
despite the announcements by the major producers to cut output.
Consistent rise in the energy costs and environmental issues along
with emphasis on the use of recycled Aluminium has induced
producers to reduce their output. According to Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU), primary global Aluminium output is
estimated to increase to 48,228 thousand tonne in 2013 a rise of 4.2
percent as compared to expectation of 46,278 thousand tonne in
2012. Indian firm led by Hindalco Industries Ltd, will continue to
add capacities in 2013. Indian Aluminium companies have an upper
hand as compared to its global peers solely because they have
captive raw materials such as bauxite and coal. Hindalco's 1.5-
million-tonne (mt) Utkal alumina refinery project in Odisha and
359-kilo-tonne (kt) Mahan Aluminium smelter in Madhya Pradesh
will begin commissioning by March-April 2013
According to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) Daily average
primary aluminum output displayed a modest increase in October
2012 at 67,200 tonne as against 66,900 tonne in September
In China, daily average Aluminium production was 55,400 tonne in
October, down from 55,700 in September 2012. Overall China
consumption and production surged in 2012 which is expected to
continue in 2013 as well.
The aluminum struck up in bank financing deals will continue to
affect the prices in 2013. As per the market expectations, at least 60-
70 per cent of Aluminium stocks in LME warehouses are backed by
financing deals wherein banks and traders trade in the Aluminium
price curve by buying spot and selling forward up to 15 months at a
higher price. Financing transactions pegged to metal inventory will
not end anytime in 2013 as US or other major central banks globally
would not go for increase in rates in the medium to long term.
The growing stockpiles of aluminum will be a concern in 2013 as
stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses stood highest
since 2011 at 434,363 tonnes in last quarter of 2012. Aluminum
premium prevailing in the key countries will continue to influence
aluminum prices in 2013.
Expectation of rise in the aluminum demand from the automotive
sector along with infrastructure developments in the key
consuming nations will be the prime factors to be gauged in 2013.
The auto sales in US rose to 15 percent touching to a five year high in
the month of November 2012 and stood at 1.14 million vehicles.
The steady rise in auto sales in US and China shows that this sector
will enhance its demand in 2013. Aluminium is also used from
airliners to drinks cans and its demand pattern in 2013 will have big
impact on the prices.
Aluminum prices is expected to take key support near 100 in MCX
and $1880 in LME and resistance will be 125 in MCX and $2300 in
LME in 2013.
Aluminium Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.95
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.04
1.02
1.03
0.98
0.99
1.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

31
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices
Cardamom
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Queen of spices Cardamom gave heroic performance among all
the spices, with a lucrative return of 65% backed by lower level
buying & strong exports to various foreign destinations. On MCX,
the counter started its journey from 600 levels & made a magical
high of 1508 level by mid July 2012. During this period, the news of
production failure in Guatemala & seasonal demand during
Ramadan flared up the prices. During the financial year 2011- 2012,
Cardamom export registered phenomenal growth of 296% in
volume and 175% in value as the Indian spice export for the year
2011-2012 showed an increase of 9% in volume and 43% in rupee
terms than the previous year. However, the prices saw a deep
correction making low at 707 levels due to hefty profit booking
before the arrival of new crop in month of July. There were also
reports that the Indian crop in 2011-12 was good. The carryover
stocks of an estimated 4,000 tonnes of Cardamom were added, the
total availability during the current season was at around 24,000
tonnes. The exporters also boycotted from auctions over the issue
of minimum bidding rate being raised from 50 paise to Rs 5. This
prolonged disruption has taken a toll over exports. By the end of the
year, with the resumption of auctions & Marketfed (Kerala) coming
forward to purchase Cardamom to safeguard the interests of the
Cardamom growers created a bullish sentiment in the market.
Giving a snap-shot of demand-supply gap, production in India for
2012-13 is forecasted to 9,000 tonnes as compared to record
output of 18,000 tonnes in 2011-12; whereas, India's consumption
has been estimated near 11,000 - 12,000 tonnes per annum. On the
international platform, there is news that due to favorable weather
conditions Guatemala production during the month of October
2012 stood on record level at 10000 tonnes, up by 40% of the total
production three year back. The country may take advantage in
export markets because its climate allows for production all the
year round.
As per the statistics available from Spices Board India, export of
Cardamom (small) from India during 2012-13 is estimated at 3000
Range: Rs. 800-1400
tonnes, whereas Cardamom (small) at 1000 tonnes. For Indian
exporters, countries like Saudi Arabia (small Cardamom), Pakistan
& U.A.E (large Cardamom) are the largest import market. On the
international platform, other than Guatemala, new comers like
Nigeria and Ethiopia will probably give a tough competition this
year. The Spices Board has also taken continuous efforts to revamp
the marketing & auctions. The Board has taken initiatives entering
into marketing tie ups with prominent merchants and dealers in the
major markets of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab,
Haryana and Rajasthan.
Cardamom prices may begin the year consolidating with an upside
bias, supported by sustained buying by upcountry buyers &
exporters. The month of June could probably witness some hefty
gains as consumption tends to increase with the commencement of
Ramadan in Middle East countries. In later half of the year,
Cardamom futures will witness downfall as harvesting starts from
June-July in Kerala, whereas in Karnataka it commences during the
month of August, with 5 rounds of picking. The bottom seems to be
getting restricted near 800-850 levels. Taking the advantage of the
lower prices, long term market participants may enter the trade
keeping in mind to gain some long term profits. Going by
seasonality, prices may move upside from the month of November,
with bullish factor of winter season demand. Surpassing 1150
levels, Cardamom futures are expected to glimpse 1400 levels.
Cardamom Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.97
0.98
1.02
1.02
1.07
1.15
1.12
0.99
0.92
0.83
0.93
0.99
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

33
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices
Cardamom
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Queen of spices Cardamom gave heroic performance among all
the spices, with a lucrative return of 65% backed by lower level
buying & strong exports to various foreign destinations. On MCX,
the counter started its journey from 600 levels & made a magical
high of 1508 level by mid July 2012. During this period, the news of
production failure in Guatemala & seasonal demand during
Ramadan flared up the prices. During the financial year 2011- 2012,
Cardamom export registered phenomenal growth of 296% in
volume and 175% in value as the Indian spice export for the year
2011-2012 showed an increase of 9% in volume and 43% in rupee
terms than the previous year. However, the prices saw a deep
correction making low at 707 levels due to hefty profit booking
before the arrival of new crop in month of July. There were also
reports that the Indian crop in 2011-12 was good. The carryover
stocks of an estimated 4,000 tonnes of Cardamom were added, the
total availability during the current season was at around 24,000
tonnes. The exporters also boycotted from auctions over the issue
of minimum bidding rate being raised from 50 paise to Rs 5. This
prolonged disruption has taken a toll over exports. By the end of the
year, with the resumption of auctions & Marketfed (Kerala) coming
forward to purchase Cardamom to safeguard the interests of the
Cardamom growers created a bullish sentiment in the market.
Giving a snap-shot of demand-supply gap, production in India for
2012-13 is forecasted to 9,000 tonnes as compared to record
output of 18,000 tonnes in 2011-12; whereas, India's consumption
has been estimated near 11,000 - 12,000 tonnes per annum. On the
international platform, there is news that due to favorable weather
conditions Guatemala production during the month of October
2012 stood on record level at 10000 tonnes, up by 40% of the total
production three year back. The country may take advantage in
export markets because its climate allows for production all the
year round.
As per the statistics available from Spices Board India, export of
Cardamom (small) from India during 2012-13 is estimated at 3000
Range: Rs. 800-1400
tonnes, whereas Cardamom (small) at 1000 tonnes. For Indian
exporters, countries like Saudi Arabia (small Cardamom), Pakistan
& U.A.E (large Cardamom) are the largest import market. On the
international platform, other than Guatemala, new comers like
Nigeria and Ethiopia will probably give a tough competition this
year. The Spices Board has also taken continuous efforts to revamp
the marketing & auctions. The Board has taken initiatives entering
into marketing tie ups with prominent merchants and dealers in the
major markets of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab,
Haryana and Rajasthan.
Cardamom prices may begin the year consolidating with an upside
bias, supported by sustained buying by upcountry buyers &
exporters. The month of June could probably witness some hefty
gains as consumption tends to increase with the commencement of
Ramadan in Middle East countries. In later half of the year,
Cardamom futures will witness downfall as harvesting starts from
June-July in Kerala, whereas in Karnataka it commences during the
month of August, with 5 rounds of picking. The bottom seems to be
getting restricted near 800-850 levels. Taking the advantage of the
lower prices, long term market participants may enter the trade
keeping in mind to gain some long term profits. Going by
seasonality, prices may move upside from the month of November,
with bullish factor of winter season demand. Surpassing 1150
levels, Cardamom futures are expected to glimpse 1400 levels.
Cardamom Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.97
0.98
1.02
1.02
1.07
1.15
1.12
0.99
0.92
0.83
0.93
0.99
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

33
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Pepper
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Pepper futures witnessing both the sides of high & lows, managed
to gain by 17% during the previous year. The factor of demand &
supply mismatch acted as a bullish factor, based on which the
counter rose from lows of 28810 levels, making a high at 45880
levels. By the beginning of the year, the fall in rupee against dollar
aided the Pepper exporters. Furthermore, competitive Indian
parity in the international market also increased the business. On
the international market, Brazil and Indonesia also gave indications
of rising prices as the stocks too were low there. However, with the
clarity over output figures during the International Pepper
Community (IPC) session held in Colombo, prices on the national
bourse retraced downside to 36750 levels. According to the IPC
projections, the total global production was projected higher at
3,27,090 tonnes. Back at home, the Indian total output was
estimated at 43,000 tonnes in 2012. A carry forward stock of 15,816
tonnes and import of 16,250 tonnes have been shown. Indian
exports of Pepper also lost its ground to Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil
and Malaysia, standing 5th position in the global market. The
reason attributed was prices in India were often $1000/ tonne in
the later part of the year higher than in other producing countries.
With these factors along with harvesting pressure by mid-
December, Pepper futures moves couldn't sustain at higher levels &
closed near 36000 levels.
This year, fundamentals are bearish for Pepper futures. Exports are
slowing down from domestic pockets due to out-priced Indian
parity on the international market. In the last two-three years,
prices in India were often $1000/ tonne higher than in other
producing countries. Indian exporters are likely to face a stiff
competition as estimates show that Indonesia is likely to double its
exports to 53000 MT. As per the outcomes from 40th Annual
Session of International Pepper Community, exports from Indian
are estimated at 17500 MT in 2012, lesser by 28.47% as compared
to the year 2011. As per the statistic of Spices Board India,
estimated export of Pepper from India in 2012-13 is 20,000 MT.
According to the IPC projections, the total global production was
Range: Rs. 30000-45000
projected higher at 3,27,090 tonnes. The countries contributing to
this rise are namely Indonesia, Malaysia & Sri Lanka.
However, carryover stock is pegged lower at 750 MT as compared to
1054 MT in 2011, owing to lesser imports from other nations.
Domestic consumption is seen increased to 42,500 MT, due to
changing taste of people.
Regarding price outlook, Pepper futures in the initial two month of
the year will possibly remain in bearish zone as fresh arrivals will
hit the spot markets. Thereafter, a rise is projected till the month of
September, taking support near 30000-31000 levels, on the back of
lower level buying & sustained requirements from various
segments. By the last quarter, prices may tend to fall as market
participants could turn cautious ahead of production estimates. In
long term, the counter is seen taking support & may move towards
49000 levels. Growers are in knowledge that this black gold can be
stored at room temperature for many years without losing its flavor
& will witness an increasing demand.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Pepper Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.85
0.89
0.92
0.97 0.97
0.98
1.04
1.08
1.09
1.08
1.07
1.05
26000.00
28000.00
30000.00
32000.00
34000.00
36000.00
38000.00
40000.00
42000.00
44000.00
46000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Turmeric
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
During the initial months of past year, Turmeric futures made a
steep fall from 5400 levels and made a low of 3336 levels. Traders
boycotted from the Regulated Market Committee & kept
themselves away from attending the auctions. Apart from this,
there were no fresh orders from upcountry stockist & new crop
from Mysore while its surrounding areas such as Gundelpet &
Chamrajnagar had started arriving for sale. Turmeric Farmers
Association of India also boycotted the sale demanding the Union
and State Governments to procure Turmeric at Rs 10,000/ quintal.
The counter witnessed a consolidation in the range between 3300-
4200 during the months from April to July on talks of declaration of
Minimum Support Price & that National Agricultural Cooperative
Marketing Federation (NAFED) was likely to buy huge quantities.
By the end of mid-year, news came up that Tamil Nadu Cooperative
Marketing Federation (TANFED) would procure Turmeric at Rs
4,000 per quintal from farmers directly. Getting back the bullish
sentiments, Turmeric prices moved upside and made a high of 6748
levels, as large scale buying were done by the stockists. During this
period, the exporters had also received orders from North India &
quoted increased price for the yellow spice. Later, factors like profit
booking & lack of interest of buying at higher levels discouraged the
prices, made the counter to fall to 4800 levels. By the end of the year,
Turmeric futures managed to take support above 5100 levels on
reports that production in 2012-13 was expected to be lower by 50-
60% lower compared to last year's historical high of 90 lakh bags.
Poor demand forced yellow spices to trade almost half of its cost of
production, which is about Rs.8700/ qtl. Being a seasonal & annual
Kharif crop, sowing of Turmeric has been finished. Generally
sowing takes place in the month of June-July & continues till
September. The statistics from Commissionerate of Agriculture,
Andhra Pradesh show that as on 10th October, 2012 Turmeric has
been sown over 0.58 lakh hectares, falling shortage by 23% as
compared to same period previous year. Looking at the lower prices
during previous year, growers were less interested in growing this
crop.
The harvesting has begun & may continue till end of March.
Range: Rs. 5000-9000
Moreover, fresh arrivals are likely to flow into Erode market from
Mysore region, during the period from January to April. Based on
the current pace of demand & supply, prices of Turmeric at various
spot markets located in Nizamabad (AP), Erode (TN) & Sangli
(Maharashtra) are quoting near Rs.5250/ qtl.
In long term, lower demand for Turmeric against higher availability
may keep the counter in bearish zone. The factor of high carryover
stock of more than 25 lakh bags will get added to the fresh new
crops, may possibly keep the upside limited near 7000 levels. The
carry forward stock will make the total availability around one
crore bags, which is double the domestic demand of 50 lakh bags.
However, the seasonal requirement during festivities, marriage
season coupled with sustained demand from various consuming
industries might continue to give support to the counter, keeping
the downside limited near 5000 levels. On the demand side,
according to the Spices Board exports of Turmeric for 2012-13 are
estimated at 70000 tonnes.
Going by the seasonality pattern, Turmeric futures at the first phase
is likely to see an upside till the month of July. Investors keeping a
mid term view can take advantages of lower prices during the start
of the year. In the second phase (August-December) the price trend
may lean downside as the demand for the yellow spice might taper
off with the onset of monsoon, with the presence of high moisture
content.
Turmeric Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.86
0.91
0.95
0.96
0.96
1.02
1.12
1.08
1.03
1.07
1.11
0.93
3000.00
3500.00
4000.00
4500.00
5000.00
5500.00
6000.00
6500.00
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

34

35
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Pepper
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Pepper futures witnessing both the sides of high & lows, managed
to gain by 17% during the previous year. The factor of demand &
supply mismatch acted as a bullish factor, based on which the
counter rose from lows of 28810 levels, making a high at 45880
levels. By the beginning of the year, the fall in rupee against dollar
aided the Pepper exporters. Furthermore, competitive Indian
parity in the international market also increased the business. On
the international market, Brazil and Indonesia also gave indications
of rising prices as the stocks too were low there. However, with the
clarity over output figures during the International Pepper
Community (IPC) session held in Colombo, prices on the national
bourse retraced downside to 36750 levels. According to the IPC
projections, the total global production was projected higher at
3,27,090 tonnes. Back at home, the Indian total output was
estimated at 43,000 tonnes in 2012. A carry forward stock of 15,816
tonnes and import of 16,250 tonnes have been shown. Indian
exports of Pepper also lost its ground to Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil
and Malaysia, standing 5th position in the global market. The
reason attributed was prices in India were often $1000/ tonne in
the later part of the year higher than in other producing countries.
With these factors along with harvesting pressure by mid-
December, Pepper futures moves couldn't sustain at higher levels &
closed near 36000 levels.
This year, fundamentals are bearish for Pepper futures. Exports are
slowing down from domestic pockets due to out-priced Indian
parity on the international market. In the last two-three years,
prices in India were often $1000/ tonne higher than in other
producing countries. Indian exporters are likely to face a stiff
competition as estimates show that Indonesia is likely to double its
exports to 53000 MT. As per the outcomes from 40th Annual
Session of International Pepper Community, exports from Indian
are estimated at 17500 MT in 2012, lesser by 28.47% as compared
to the year 2011. As per the statistic of Spices Board India,
estimated export of Pepper from India in 2012-13 is 20,000 MT.
According to the IPC projections, the total global production was
Range: Rs. 30000-45000
projected higher at 3,27,090 tonnes. The countries contributing to
this rise are namely Indonesia, Malaysia & Sri Lanka.
However, carryover stock is pegged lower at 750 MT as compared to
1054 MT in 2011, owing to lesser imports from other nations.
Domestic consumption is seen increased to 42,500 MT, due to
changing taste of people.
Regarding price outlook, Pepper futures in the initial two month of
the year will possibly remain in bearish zone as fresh arrivals will
hit the spot markets. Thereafter, a rise is projected till the month of
September, taking support near 30000-31000 levels, on the back of
lower level buying & sustained requirements from various
segments. By the last quarter, prices may tend to fall as market
participants could turn cautious ahead of production estimates. In
long term, the counter is seen taking support & may move towards
49000 levels. Growers are in knowledge that this black gold can be
stored at room temperature for many years without losing its flavor
& will witness an increasing demand.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Pepper Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.85
0.89
0.92
0.97 0.97
0.98
1.04
1.08
1.09
1.08
1.07
1.05
26000.00
28000.00
30000.00
32000.00
34000.00
36000.00
38000.00
40000.00
42000.00
44000.00
46000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Turmeric
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
During the initial months of past year, Turmeric futures made a
steep fall from 5400 levels and made a low of 3336 levels. Traders
boycotted from the Regulated Market Committee & kept
themselves away from attending the auctions. Apart from this,
there were no fresh orders from upcountry stockist & new crop
from Mysore while its surrounding areas such as Gundelpet &
Chamrajnagar had started arriving for sale. Turmeric Farmers
Association of India also boycotted the sale demanding the Union
and State Governments to procure Turmeric at Rs 10,000/ quintal.
The counter witnessed a consolidation in the range between 3300-
4200 during the months from April to July on talks of declaration of
Minimum Support Price & that National Agricultural Cooperative
Marketing Federation (NAFED) was likely to buy huge quantities.
By the end of mid-year, news came up that Tamil Nadu Cooperative
Marketing Federation (TANFED) would procure Turmeric at Rs
4,000 per quintal from farmers directly. Getting back the bullish
sentiments, Turmeric prices moved upside and made a high of 6748
levels, as large scale buying were done by the stockists. During this
period, the exporters had also received orders from North India &
quoted increased price for the yellow spice. Later, factors like profit
booking & lack of interest of buying at higher levels discouraged the
prices, made the counter to fall to 4800 levels. By the end of the year,
Turmeric futures managed to take support above 5100 levels on
reports that production in 2012-13 was expected to be lower by 50-
60% lower compared to last year's historical high of 90 lakh bags.
Poor demand forced yellow spices to trade almost half of its cost of
production, which is about Rs.8700/ qtl. Being a seasonal & annual
Kharif crop, sowing of Turmeric has been finished. Generally
sowing takes place in the month of June-July & continues till
September. The statistics from Commissionerate of Agriculture,
Andhra Pradesh show that as on 10th October, 2012 Turmeric has
been sown over 0.58 lakh hectares, falling shortage by 23% as
compared to same period previous year. Looking at the lower prices
during previous year, growers were less interested in growing this
crop.
The harvesting has begun & may continue till end of March.
Range: Rs. 5000-9000
Moreover, fresh arrivals are likely to flow into Erode market from
Mysore region, during the period from January to April. Based on
the current pace of demand & supply, prices of Turmeric at various
spot markets located in Nizamabad (AP), Erode (TN) & Sangli
(Maharashtra) are quoting near Rs.5250/ qtl.
In long term, lower demand for Turmeric against higher availability
may keep the counter in bearish zone. The factor of high carryover
stock of more than 25 lakh bags will get added to the fresh new
crops, may possibly keep the upside limited near 7000 levels. The
carry forward stock will make the total availability around one
crore bags, which is double the domestic demand of 50 lakh bags.
However, the seasonal requirement during festivities, marriage
season coupled with sustained demand from various consuming
industries might continue to give support to the counter, keeping
the downside limited near 5000 levels. On the demand side,
according to the Spices Board exports of Turmeric for 2012-13 are
estimated at 70000 tonnes.
Going by the seasonality pattern, Turmeric futures at the first phase
is likely to see an upside till the month of July. Investors keeping a
mid term view can take advantages of lower prices during the start
of the year. In the second phase (August-December) the price trend
may lean downside as the demand for the yellow spice might taper
off with the onset of monsoon, with the presence of high moisture
content.
Turmeric Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.86
0.91
0.95
0.96
0.96
1.02
1.12
1.08
1.03
1.07
1.11
0.93
3000.00
3500.00
4000.00
4500.00
5000.00
5500.00
6000.00
6500.00
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

34

35
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices
Jeera
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Since the beginning of the year, Jeera futures had started plunging
from 16975 levels & made a low at 11275 levels. Factors of
favourable weather increasing the estimates of a higher crop &
heavy arrivals had added to the downside. Domestic demand was
weak and arrivals started mounting from a usual 30,000 bags to
about 50,000 bags daily. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 was
expected to be around 35 lakh bags (of 55 kg each) as compared to
29 lakh bags in 2010-11. Carryover stocks of Jeera was estimated to
be around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in 2010-11.
Later during mid of the year, taking the advantage of lower prices &
Indian cumin being the cheapest origin, prices bounced back to
16915 levels backed by strong export demand. Moreover, drop in
production in Syria and Turkey & failure of crop in Afghanistan
helped India to achieve impressive exports. According to the Spices
Board of India, Jeera exports in April stood at 2,500 tonnes as
compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011. However, with the onset of
monsoon & Jeera being a rain sensitive crop, market participants
turned cautious with some profit booking from higher levels. The
fact of current statistic showing that area under cultivation in
Gujarat is lower by 25-30% lead by supply constraints on the
international market has made the counter stable taking support
above 14000 levels.
Indian cumin has always witnessed demand from cuisines around
the world. Apart from it, the domestic industrial demand for
production of curry powder, aromatic oil, spice blends, and
medicinal preparations have many a times lend cushion to prices
throughout the year. The international demand for Indian cumin
seed is anticipated to remain strong, based on the fact that
estimated export target for 2012-13 has been pegged at 45000
tonnes by the Spices Board of India.
Giving a picture of Indian production scenario, last year the major
growing areas were in receipt of good monsoons. Due to which
there is a high scope of increasing area under cultivation. The
Gujarat State Agriculture Department data pointed out that as on
December 18, coverage of Jeera stands at 263,500 hectares as
against 264,000 hectares last year. India's production for 2013 is
Range: Rs. 13500-18500
estimated at 55000 tonnes against 43000 tonnes projected for the
year 2012. On international market, in Syria and Turkey output is
likely around 45,000 tonnes (around 30,000 tonnes in Syria and
15,000 tonnes in Turkey), down almost 10,000 tonnes from earlier
projections.
Coming to the supply side fundamentals, due to civil unrest in these
countries, the production process may get delayed. The harvest
time of cumin in Syria comes later than the harvest in India which
ends in May, but earlier than in Turkey which normally starts in
August & continues till October.
The outlook of Jeera futures is appearing to be firm supported by
failure of crop in Afghanistan coupled with lower projections of
output in Syria & Turkey. Moreover, factors viz. festivities,
increasing number of cuisines & sustained domestic demand would
probably keep the counter above 12,500 levels. During initial
months till the month of May, Jeera futures are likely to consolidate
as the arrival pressure of fresh crops will be on spot markets,
keeping the upside limited. During the later part of the year, the
price outlook seems bullish for 20,000 levels owing to lean period of
arrivals on domestic market & non-availability of sufficient cumin
on global platform.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Jeera Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.97
0.97
0.91
0.96
0.94
0.99
1.09
1.02
0.99
1.01
1.07
1.08
10000.00
11000.00
12000.00
13000.00
14000.00
15000.00
16000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices
Chilli
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Chilli prices fell the most amongst the spices complex on the futures
market following the bearish trend of spot markets due to higher
stocks at cold storages. On the national bourse, the counter
slumped to 4900 levels from the highs of 6748 levels, making a low
at 4430 levels, during the month of June 2012. Heavy arrivals from
Kurnool and other districts of Andhra Pradesh depressed the
prices. Many of growers in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka shifted
from cotton to the more remunerative Chilli during past year. Last
year, the total production was around 12 lakh tonnes with an
addition of the old stock of 8 lakh bags around Guntur region in the
beginning of the year. However, higher export demand from
Bangladesh, Malaysia & Indonesia helped Chilli futures to take
support near 4800 levels. According to spices Board of India, during
April 2012 Chilli export exceeded by 131% in terms of quantity as
compared to same period in 2011. Later, during the year focus of
market participants shifted to the bumper crop in Madhya Pradesh,
which was estimated to be around 45 lakh bags. This became a
bearish factor & capped the gains near 6000 levels. On similar lines,
Tamil Nadu government also offered subsidies to boost Chilli
production.
Indian red Chilli contributing to 25% of global production has been
world famous in these recent years for possessing many special
features. The estimated export of Chilli during 2012-13 has been
pegged at 2,40,000 tonnes by Spices Board, India with value of Rs.
1800 crores as earnings. This year, China is expected to give a tuff
competition for exports, as production there is expected to increase
this season. Of the total exports, China's share is calculated to be in
the range of 70,000 tonnes to 80,000 tonnes.
The production scenario is like Indian crop might be lower as
cyclonic rains of Nilam have created a shortfall in production.
Nearly 11.50 lakh tonnes is expected to be produced during 2012-
13 as compared to 12.50 lakh tonnes in 2011-12. The latest
statistics released by Department of Agriculture, Andhra Pradesh,
reveal that sowing of Chilli has been done over an area of 30,493
hectares, lower by 29.55% as compared with last year. A report
Range: Rs. 5500-8000
from Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has also stated that
production in Bangladesh and Pakistan is estimated to be good.
During the period January to April, spot markets are likely to
witness inquiries of demand with the entry of new arrivals. Later
during the year, the factor that might exert some bearish pressure
will possibly be the large inventories at cold storages. There is 55-
60 lac bags stock of red Chilli in all over Andhra Pradesh cold
storage. Overall the period from the month of May till December
prices may tend to move upside as the counter will enter a lean
period of supply. Moreover, market participants would also turn
cautious watching the production estimates for next season.
However, long term outlook is looking steady within the range of
5500-8000 levels. Production losses in South India will possibly
lose out to the huge carryover stocks, aiding a cushion to the
counter.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Chilli Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.97
1.01
0.98
0.99
0.95
0.98
1.01
0.97
1.01
1.04
1.02
1.07
4000.00
4500.00
5000.00
5500.00
6000.00
6500.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

36

37
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices
Jeera
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Since the beginning of the year, Jeera futures had started plunging
from 16975 levels & made a low at 11275 levels. Factors of
favourable weather increasing the estimates of a higher crop &
heavy arrivals had added to the downside. Domestic demand was
weak and arrivals started mounting from a usual 30,000 bags to
about 50,000 bags daily. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 was
expected to be around 35 lakh bags (of 55 kg each) as compared to
29 lakh bags in 2010-11. Carryover stocks of Jeera was estimated to
be around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in 2010-11.
Later during mid of the year, taking the advantage of lower prices &
Indian cumin being the cheapest origin, prices bounced back to
16915 levels backed by strong export demand. Moreover, drop in
production in Syria and Turkey & failure of crop in Afghanistan
helped India to achieve impressive exports. According to the Spices
Board of India, Jeera exports in April stood at 2,500 tonnes as
compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011. However, with the onset of
monsoon & Jeera being a rain sensitive crop, market participants
turned cautious with some profit booking from higher levels. The
fact of current statistic showing that area under cultivation in
Gujarat is lower by 25-30% lead by supply constraints on the
international market has made the counter stable taking support
above 14000 levels.
Indian cumin has always witnessed demand from cuisines around
the world. Apart from it, the domestic industrial demand for
production of curry powder, aromatic oil, spice blends, and
medicinal preparations have many a times lend cushion to prices
throughout the year. The international demand for Indian cumin
seed is anticipated to remain strong, based on the fact that
estimated export target for 2012-13 has been pegged at 45000
tonnes by the Spices Board of India.
Giving a picture of Indian production scenario, last year the major
growing areas were in receipt of good monsoons. Due to which
there is a high scope of increasing area under cultivation. The
Gujarat State Agriculture Department data pointed out that as on
December 18, coverage of Jeera stands at 263,500 hectares as
against 264,000 hectares last year. India's production for 2013 is
Range: Rs. 13500-18500
estimated at 55000 tonnes against 43000 tonnes projected for the
year 2012. On international market, in Syria and Turkey output is
likely around 45,000 tonnes (around 30,000 tonnes in Syria and
15,000 tonnes in Turkey), down almost 10,000 tonnes from earlier
projections.
Coming to the supply side fundamentals, due to civil unrest in these
countries, the production process may get delayed. The harvest
time of cumin in Syria comes later than the harvest in India which
ends in May, but earlier than in Turkey which normally starts in
August & continues till October.
The outlook of Jeera futures is appearing to be firm supported by
failure of crop in Afghanistan coupled with lower projections of
output in Syria & Turkey. Moreover, factors viz. festivities,
increasing number of cuisines & sustained domestic demand would
probably keep the counter above 12,500 levels. During initial
months till the month of May, Jeera futures are likely to consolidate
as the arrival pressure of fresh crops will be on spot markets,
keeping the upside limited. During the later part of the year, the
price outlook seems bullish for 20,000 levels owing to lean period of
arrivals on domestic market & non-availability of sufficient cumin
on global platform.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Jeera Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.97
0.97
0.91
0.96
0.94
0.99
1.09
1.02
0.99
1.01
1.07
1.08
10000.00
11000.00
12000.00
13000.00
14000.00
15000.00
16000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Spices
Chilli
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Chilli prices fell the most amongst the spices complex on the futures
market following the bearish trend of spot markets due to higher
stocks at cold storages. On the national bourse, the counter
slumped to 4900 levels from the highs of 6748 levels, making a low
at 4430 levels, during the month of June 2012. Heavy arrivals from
Kurnool and other districts of Andhra Pradesh depressed the
prices. Many of growers in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka shifted
from cotton to the more remunerative Chilli during past year. Last
year, the total production was around 12 lakh tonnes with an
addition of the old stock of 8 lakh bags around Guntur region in the
beginning of the year. However, higher export demand from
Bangladesh, Malaysia & Indonesia helped Chilli futures to take
support near 4800 levels. According to spices Board of India, during
April 2012 Chilli export exceeded by 131% in terms of quantity as
compared to same period in 2011. Later, during the year focus of
market participants shifted to the bumper crop in Madhya Pradesh,
which was estimated to be around 45 lakh bags. This became a
bearish factor & capped the gains near 6000 levels. On similar lines,
Tamil Nadu government also offered subsidies to boost Chilli
production.
Indian red Chilli contributing to 25% of global production has been
world famous in these recent years for possessing many special
features. The estimated export of Chilli during 2012-13 has been
pegged at 2,40,000 tonnes by Spices Board, India with value of Rs.
1800 crores as earnings. This year, China is expected to give a tuff
competition for exports, as production there is expected to increase
this season. Of the total exports, China's share is calculated to be in
the range of 70,000 tonnes to 80,000 tonnes.
The production scenario is like Indian crop might be lower as
cyclonic rains of Nilam have created a shortfall in production.
Nearly 11.50 lakh tonnes is expected to be produced during 2012-
13 as compared to 12.50 lakh tonnes in 2011-12. The latest
statistics released by Department of Agriculture, Andhra Pradesh,
reveal that sowing of Chilli has been done over an area of 30,493
hectares, lower by 29.55% as compared with last year. A report
Range: Rs. 5500-8000
from Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has also stated that
production in Bangladesh and Pakistan is estimated to be good.
During the period January to April, spot markets are likely to
witness inquiries of demand with the entry of new arrivals. Later
during the year, the factor that might exert some bearish pressure
will possibly be the large inventories at cold storages. There is 55-
60 lac bags stock of red Chilli in all over Andhra Pradesh cold
storage. Overall the period from the month of May till December
prices may tend to move upside as the counter will enter a lean
period of supply. Moreover, market participants would also turn
cautious watching the production estimates for next season.
However, long term outlook is looking steady within the range of
5500-8000 levels. Production losses in South India will possibly
lose out to the huge carryover stocks, aiding a cushion to the
counter.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Chilli Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.97
1.01
0.98
0.99
0.95
0.98
1.01
0.97
1.01
1.04
1.02
1.07
4000.00
4500.00
5000.00
5500.00
6000.00
6500.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

36

37
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil
Soyabean
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Hot & dry weather across much of the United States and other
countries had propelled Soyabean prices on international market
to gain about 22%, while on the national bourse, the counter moved
up by more than 32%. The estimates of lower production in the
main producing nations such as Brazil, China, US and India
supported the uptrend & pushed the counter to high of 5064 levels
on NCDEX & close to $18 mark on CBOT. The US Department of
Agriculture reduced the crop condition ratings for U.S Soyabean to
the lowest since 1988, as dry weather hit the crop yield. Back at
home, improved buying support for soyameal in the export market
lifted the prices. Higher demand from the crushers and weak arrival
on account of rains also lent strength to Soyabean prices. On the
international market, soybean imports by China, rose to a 25-
month high of 5.87 million tonnes as crushers increased imports to
make up for a supply shortfall in peak consumption months.
However, by mid-year, the imposition of additional margin @25%
on U.S soybean futures by the CME Group, parent of the Chicago
Board of Trade cooled down the gains for a short duration. Global
soybean consumption dropped as record prices curbed demand for
the oil made from the oilseed for food and biofuel. In India, the move
to increase the minimum support prices for Soyabean by 30% to Rs.
2,200/ qtl in 2012-13 turned around the prices towards 3000 levels
owing to prospects for better crop scenario. The Soybean
Processors Association of India cited that India's soybean
production in 2012/ 13 was likely to rise 8.8% on year to 12.67
million tonnes on the back of higher acreage and better per hectare
yields. A long spell of rain and availability of seeds had prompted
the Madhya Pradesh government to project a new high in soy
production of 13.2 million tonnes. However, by the end of the year,
steady sentiments of positive crush margin & sustained soy meal
exports kept the prices range bound. A drop in rival supplies from
the drought-hit United States and South America also boosted
demand for India's soymeal. Overseas inquiries from countries like
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam & Indonesia kept soymeal
export sales steady in 2011-12.
In 2013, market participants will be watching the domestic
production scenario of major oilseeds, monsoon & soyameal
exports demand. India will continue to be the major exporters of
soya meal to the Asian countries viz. Vietnam, South Korea, Japan &
Indonesia. Soybean meal exports are forecasted to be higher owing
Range: NCDEX: Rs. 2900-4800
CBOT: $1200-$1800
to strong demand and larger crush, attributed to the increased crop.
India harvested a record 12.6 million tonnes of soybean in 2012.
The international factors will mainly be crop in USA, Brazil,
Argentina & impact of China's export demand over U.S soybean
prices on CBOT. The USDA has projected soybean output in Brazil
and Argentina to fall to a 3 year low of 120 million tonnes in 2012 on
dry weather conditions. Fresh supplies of harvest from Brazil and
Argentina are likely to begin from March & would continue till May.
In long term, sustained figures of exports are likely to support
prices but a runaway rally is unlikely since there are no encouraging
signs on the demand front. A brisk demand from China a major
consumer of soybean, could pile more pressure on benchmark U.S.
futures. In current scenario, Chinese oilseed processors are losing
100-150 yuan for every tonne of soy they process into soymeal and
soy oil. Also, there are reports that China will start stockpiling
soybeans from this year's harvest in order to boost farmers' income
and increase State reserves. This process of stockpiling will end on
April 30, 2013. These factors suggest a bearish price outlook for U.S
soybean futures during this year.
On NCDEX, soybean futures are seen to trade with positive bias
taking support above 3000 levels, while the upside may get
extended to 4500 levels. Changing food habits have pushed up
consumption in India & demand from various related industries.
The annual domestic soymeal demand has increased by about 10%
in the past two years. Current consumption is 4 million tonnes, up
from about 3.5 million tonnes the previous year. Following its
seasonality, the counter may get range bound in the rainy months of
July-August as farmers in India will plant the crop. Later it may tend
to fall as the harvest in India along with United States will begin
from the month of October. Arrivals pressure will keep a cap on the
upside till the year end.
Soyabean Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.94
0.97
0.97
1.04
1.04
1.08
1.10
1.06
0.91
0.94
0.96
1.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
4,500.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthlyclosingprice2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Mustard
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Since the beginning of the year, Mustard prices on the spot & futures
market showed an uptrend, supported by reports of drop in output.
The Solvent Extractors' Association of India had estimated that the
total Mustard seed production was likely to decline by 8.5%.
According to a survey carried out by the SEA of India, Mustard
production was 62.65 lakh tonnes in 2011-12 against 68.50 lakh
tonnes in 2010-11. Adding to it, demand from the pickle
manufacturers, seasonal consumption of Mustard oil during the
rainy season added strength to the counter, touching high at 4538
levels. Export demand for rape meal in 2011-12 surged by more
than 30% as compared to 2010-11, as cited by the Solvent
Extractors' Association of India. Late during the year, with the onset
of winters, market participants were cautious watching the area
under cultivation, which capped the upside price movement. The
Government had raised the minimum support price of Mustard to
Rs. 2500/ qtl for the year 2012-13 this season. With favourable
weather and a higher acreage, there were reports that the country
was to witness a bumper Mustard production. As per the latest
statistics from Rajasthan agriculture department in the month of
December, Mustard being a Rabi crop, sowing was progressing well
and the total Mustard acreage is likely to cross 34 lakh hectares as
against 25 lakh hectares last year. The talks that if weather
remained favourable, an output of 65 lakh tonne could be witnessed
which was higher than last year, capped the upside moves on the
national bourse.
India's rapeseed output could rise by 6.3% in 2013 as the recent
high prices have spurred farmers to plant more of the crop. The
Cabinet Committee for Economic Affairs has approved increasing
the MSP of Mustard seed to Rs 3,000 per quintal for the 2013-14
marketing year from Rs 2,500 per quintal in 2012-13. This
increment in MSP is benefiting cultivation & could push output up
to 7.2 million tonnes. As per the latest statistic available from
Ministry of Agriculture, Indian farmers have cultivated rapeseed on
6.44 million hectares as on 21st December 2012, compared with
6.27 million hectares during the same time last year. The size of the
rapeseed crop is crucial for India's total edible oil demand of 16
million to 17 million tonnes a year, which is growing 3% to 4% a
Range: Rs. 3200-4600
year. The oil extracted from the rapeseed crop meets 12% to 13% of
total consumption. In India, rapeseed planting usually starts from
October in the world's fourth biggest producer after the European
Union, Canada and China. Harvest of the main winter season oilseed
crop takes place from February.
According to the International Grain Council the international
production scenario of rapeseed market is expected to remain very
tight, with output projected at four-year low and 2012/ 13 stocks
forecast to decline 23% y/ y. Looking to 2013/ 14, high prices are
expected to encourage a rebound in larger winter rapeseed
planting in the EU, particularly in Germany.
In mid-term till the months of April-May, Mustard futures are
expected to remain in the negative territory due to sufficiency of
availability in spot markets. The continuous arrivals & selling
pressure could bring down the prices 3300-3200 levels. Thereafter,
lower demand due to onset of summer season could keep the prices
range bound. However, the downside may remain restricted near
3000 levels, supported by sustained demand of rapemeal exports
from main buyers like South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia,
Japan, Taiwan, U.A.E, Iran & Turkey. During the period from
September December, seasonal demand of winter season,
increasing consumption from households, pickle industries &
improving inquiries for Mustard oil prior days to Diwali will
possibly give the sentiments an upbeat for Mustard seed in the
domestic market. Renewed buying from lower levels & any news
from China lifting its ban on imports of rapemeal from India, could
take the prices to 4500-5000 levels.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Mustard Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.89
0.93 0.93
0.96
1.00
1.01
1.04
1.03
0.99
1.06
1.07
1.10
3000.00
3200.00
3400.00
3600.00
3800.00
4000.00
4200.00
4400.00
4600.00
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

38

39
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil
Soyabean
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Hot & dry weather across much of the United States and other
countries had propelled Soyabean prices on international market
to gain about 22%, while on the national bourse, the counter moved
up by more than 32%. The estimates of lower production in the
main producing nations such as Brazil, China, US and India
supported the uptrend & pushed the counter to high of 5064 levels
on NCDEX & close to $18 mark on CBOT. The US Department of
Agriculture reduced the crop condition ratings for U.S Soyabean to
the lowest since 1988, as dry weather hit the crop yield. Back at
home, improved buying support for soyameal in the export market
lifted the prices. Higher demand from the crushers and weak arrival
on account of rains also lent strength to Soyabean prices. On the
international market, soybean imports by China, rose to a 25-
month high of 5.87 million tonnes as crushers increased imports to
make up for a supply shortfall in peak consumption months.
However, by mid-year, the imposition of additional margin @25%
on U.S soybean futures by the CME Group, parent of the Chicago
Board of Trade cooled down the gains for a short duration. Global
soybean consumption dropped as record prices curbed demand for
the oil made from the oilseed for food and biofuel. In India, the move
to increase the minimum support prices for Soyabean by 30% to Rs.
2,200/ qtl in 2012-13 turned around the prices towards 3000 levels
owing to prospects for better crop scenario. The Soybean
Processors Association of India cited that India's soybean
production in 2012/ 13 was likely to rise 8.8% on year to 12.67
million tonnes on the back of higher acreage and better per hectare
yields. A long spell of rain and availability of seeds had prompted
the Madhya Pradesh government to project a new high in soy
production of 13.2 million tonnes. However, by the end of the year,
steady sentiments of positive crush margin & sustained soy meal
exports kept the prices range bound. A drop in rival supplies from
the drought-hit United States and South America also boosted
demand for India's soymeal. Overseas inquiries from countries like
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam & Indonesia kept soymeal
export sales steady in 2011-12.
In 2013, market participants will be watching the domestic
production scenario of major oilseeds, monsoon & soyameal
exports demand. India will continue to be the major exporters of
soya meal to the Asian countries viz. Vietnam, South Korea, Japan &
Indonesia. Soybean meal exports are forecasted to be higher owing
Range: NCDEX: Rs. 2900-4800
CBOT: $1200-$1800
to strong demand and larger crush, attributed to the increased crop.
India harvested a record 12.6 million tonnes of soybean in 2012.
The international factors will mainly be crop in USA, Brazil,
Argentina & impact of China's export demand over U.S soybean
prices on CBOT. The USDA has projected soybean output in Brazil
and Argentina to fall to a 3 year low of 120 million tonnes in 2012 on
dry weather conditions. Fresh supplies of harvest from Brazil and
Argentina are likely to begin from March & would continue till May.
In long term, sustained figures of exports are likely to support
prices but a runaway rally is unlikely since there are no encouraging
signs on the demand front. A brisk demand from China a major
consumer of soybean, could pile more pressure on benchmark U.S.
futures. In current scenario, Chinese oilseed processors are losing
100-150 yuan for every tonne of soy they process into soymeal and
soy oil. Also, there are reports that China will start stockpiling
soybeans from this year's harvest in order to boost farmers' income
and increase State reserves. This process of stockpiling will end on
April 30, 2013. These factors suggest a bearish price outlook for U.S
soybean futures during this year.
On NCDEX, soybean futures are seen to trade with positive bias
taking support above 3000 levels, while the upside may get
extended to 4500 levels. Changing food habits have pushed up
consumption in India & demand from various related industries.
The annual domestic soymeal demand has increased by about 10%
in the past two years. Current consumption is 4 million tonnes, up
from about 3.5 million tonnes the previous year. Following its
seasonality, the counter may get range bound in the rainy months of
July-August as farmers in India will plant the crop. Later it may tend
to fall as the harvest in India along with United States will begin
from the month of October. Arrivals pressure will keep a cap on the
upside till the year end.
Soyabean Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.94
0.97
0.97
1.04
1.04
1.08
1.10
1.06
0.91
0.94
0.96
1.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
4,500.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthlyclosingprice2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Mustard
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Since the beginning of the year, Mustard prices on the spot & futures
market showed an uptrend, supported by reports of drop in output.
The Solvent Extractors' Association of India had estimated that the
total Mustard seed production was likely to decline by 8.5%.
According to a survey carried out by the SEA of India, Mustard
production was 62.65 lakh tonnes in 2011-12 against 68.50 lakh
tonnes in 2010-11. Adding to it, demand from the pickle
manufacturers, seasonal consumption of Mustard oil during the
rainy season added strength to the counter, touching high at 4538
levels. Export demand for rape meal in 2011-12 surged by more
than 30% as compared to 2010-11, as cited by the Solvent
Extractors' Association of India. Late during the year, with the onset
of winters, market participants were cautious watching the area
under cultivation, which capped the upside price movement. The
Government had raised the minimum support price of Mustard to
Rs. 2500/ qtl for the year 2012-13 this season. With favourable
weather and a higher acreage, there were reports that the country
was to witness a bumper Mustard production. As per the latest
statistics from Rajasthan agriculture department in the month of
December, Mustard being a Rabi crop, sowing was progressing well
and the total Mustard acreage is likely to cross 34 lakh hectares as
against 25 lakh hectares last year. The talks that if weather
remained favourable, an output of 65 lakh tonne could be witnessed
which was higher than last year, capped the upside moves on the
national bourse.
India's rapeseed output could rise by 6.3% in 2013 as the recent
high prices have spurred farmers to plant more of the crop. The
Cabinet Committee for Economic Affairs has approved increasing
the MSP of Mustard seed to Rs 3,000 per quintal for the 2013-14
marketing year from Rs 2,500 per quintal in 2012-13. This
increment in MSP is benefiting cultivation & could push output up
to 7.2 million tonnes. As per the latest statistic available from
Ministry of Agriculture, Indian farmers have cultivated rapeseed on
6.44 million hectares as on 21st December 2012, compared with
6.27 million hectares during the same time last year. The size of the
rapeseed crop is crucial for India's total edible oil demand of 16
million to 17 million tonnes a year, which is growing 3% to 4% a
Range: Rs. 3200-4600
year. The oil extracted from the rapeseed crop meets 12% to 13% of
total consumption. In India, rapeseed planting usually starts from
October in the world's fourth biggest producer after the European
Union, Canada and China. Harvest of the main winter season oilseed
crop takes place from February.
According to the International Grain Council the international
production scenario of rapeseed market is expected to remain very
tight, with output projected at four-year low and 2012/ 13 stocks
forecast to decline 23% y/ y. Looking to 2013/ 14, high prices are
expected to encourage a rebound in larger winter rapeseed
planting in the EU, particularly in Germany.
In mid-term till the months of April-May, Mustard futures are
expected to remain in the negative territory due to sufficiency of
availability in spot markets. The continuous arrivals & selling
pressure could bring down the prices 3300-3200 levels. Thereafter,
lower demand due to onset of summer season could keep the prices
range bound. However, the downside may remain restricted near
3000 levels, supported by sustained demand of rapemeal exports
from main buyers like South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia,
Japan, Taiwan, U.A.E, Iran & Turkey. During the period from
September December, seasonal demand of winter season,
increasing consumption from households, pickle industries &
improving inquiries for Mustard oil prior days to Diwali will
possibly give the sentiments an upbeat for Mustard seed in the
domestic market. Renewed buying from lower levels & any news
from China lifting its ban on imports of rapemeal from India, could
take the prices to 4500-5000 levels.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Mustard Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.89
0.93 0.93
0.96
1.00
1.01
1.04
1.03
0.99
1.06
1.07
1.10
3000.00
3200.00
3400.00
3600.00
3800.00
4000.00
4200.00
4400.00
4600.00
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

38

39
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil
Edible Oil
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Refined Soy Oil
Palm Oil prices on the national bourse moving in lock steps with
Malaysian markets had risen to 632 levels, on reports that rains in
Indonesia and Malaysia, the biggest growers, will disrupt harvests.
The upside was also supported by the tight supplies and increasing
global demand, particularly from China. However, the bull-run
ended with the month of May & a bearish trend started, getting
continued till date. More softness in Palm Oil prices was found due
to peak production season, which gave rise to a scenario of good
supply prospects. On the contrary, there was limited demand from
northern hemisphere because of the summer season. Palm Oil
imports by China, the world's biggest buyer after India, declined to
the lowest level in four years as the economy slowed down.
Moreover, Palm Oil stocks in China were near to one million tonnes
by year-end, due to stagnant domestic demand. Higher inventories
of this commodity used in everything from candy to fuel extended
its decline in prices as stockpiles in Malaysia climbed further &
production outpaced exports. According to Malaysian Palm Oil
Board, inventories jumped to 2.56 million tonnes last month.
Higher availability & sluggish demand added to the bearish
sentiments, bringing down the prices by more than 25% on MCX &
31% on BMD. Similarly, the uptrend in Refined Soy oil futures
remain capped & fell from high of 817 levels, making low near 611
levels. Oil availability from domestic sources had declined due to
lower crushing of seeds. Hence, stockiest were filling the demand
gap through additional imports. India's vegetable oil imports
surged by 17% crossing 10 million tonnes mark in the 2011-12
marketing year that ended last month.
The scenario of forward months contracts quoting lower than the
current month counters are suggesting a bearish outlook for
Refined Soy oil during the first half of the year. Increasing
temperatures during summers & changing food habits with people
staying away from oily foods may keep the prices in the negative
zone. Adding to it, rising imports along with record soybean
production during last year could bring a situation of higher
availability of vegetable oil in the domestic market. India vegetable
oil imports are likely at 10.2 million MT in the 2012-13 marketing
year. In order to protect the interest & margins of domestic
Range : Rs. 620-800
industries, industry body Solvent Extractors' Association of India
had sought the government to hike import duty to 20% on refined
vegetable oil, but government made clear that it had no proposals to
raised import duty on edible oils. The counter may also face stiff
competition with other edible oil's as India's imports are
continuously rising year-on-year. Market participants would also
keep a watch on the movement of Indian rupee which has a dynamic
relationship with the imports of vegetable oil. The other factors that
might decide the direction of prices in days to come, will possibly be
the production scenario of soybean in upcoming Kharif season &
viable crush margin of processors. During the second half of the
year, the counter is expected to maintain a strong upside trend
taking support above 600 levels. The prices may see some peak
during the month of November-December when the seasonal
consumption will possible be at peak. Festive demand along with
winter season requirement could take prices towards 800-820
levels.
In long term, CPO futures are likely to trade in range 360-580 levels.
The recovery for upside could be at slower pace due to expectations
of more availability in months ahead. India's production of
vegetable oils will possibly get bigger for the next oil year owing to a
higher mustard crop. The higher carry forward stock from the
previous year would also keep a check on the prices. There are
Annual Outlook
Crude Palm Oil Range: MCX: Rs. 360-580
BMD: MYR 2100-3100
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
0.95 0.95
0.96
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.02
1.01
0.96
1.00
1.06
1.10
600.00
650.00
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Refined Soy Oil Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
reports that India started the new Oil Year on 1 November 2012
with record opening stocks (port stocks plus internal pipeline) of
1.65 million tonnes. Adding to it, according to Oil World estimates,
India will import 7.88 million tonnes of Palm Oil during the period
from October 2012 to September 2013 up from 7.47 million tonnes
in 2011/ 12. In the recent news, government has said that India has
no proposals to raise import duty on edible oils, rejecting an earlier
demand from the oilseed crushing industry.
The fundamentals of the international market also give a bearish
scenario for Palm Oil prices in year 2013. Production in Indonesia
will climb 8% to 28 million tonnes in the year that started on Oct. 1,
according to U.S. Department of Agriculture. Indonesian Palm Oil
stocks are currently between 2.5 million and 2.8 million tonnes.
Palm Oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's biggest producer after
Indonesia, probably held near a record last month as production
exceeded exports. In the latest update by Malaysian Palm Oil Board,
November Palm Oil stocks rose 2.3% to a record high of 2,562,900
tonnes from a revised 2,505,713 tonnes in October, 2012. Moreover,
the production in November 2012 has been pegged at 1,888,358
tonnes, higher by 16% as compared to the same period for 2011.
Market participants may stay away from bulk buying due to
sufficient availability of inventories on international as well as on
domestic markets. The sentiments would remain cautious too, as
Malaysia & Indonesia are likely to revise their tax structure so as to
speed up the exports. Malaysia is expected to cut the current CPO
export tax of 23% to a graduated basis and abolish a duty-free
shipments quota from January 1, in a bid to regain market share,
ease rising stock levels and counter competition from Indonesia.
Similarly, Indonesia is discussing changes to its export tax policy to
counter Malaysia's plan to lower tariffs on Crude Palm Oil
shipments from Jan. 1, 2013.
Estimate For Availability Of Vegetable Oils From Kharif Oilseeds
Crop And Secondary Source During 2012-13 Season
Oilseeds/ Oil 2012-13 Seasons Total Oil
S.E. Oils Recovery(%) Availability
Production MarketableSurplus
Kharif Kharif
Oilseeds
Groundnut (In Shell) 40 26.20 2.20 0.88
Soya 17 113.40 103.40 17.58
Rape/ Mustard/ Toria 33 1.50 1.50 0.50
Sunflower 35 1.50 1.50 0.53
Sesame 45 3.40 0.70 0.32
Castor 45 10.70 10.70 4.82
Niger 30 0.80 0.55 0.17
Safflower 30 -- -- --
Linseed 43 -- -- --
SUB-TOTAL 157.50 120.55 24.80
Other Oilseeds
Cottonseed 11.5 103.54 98.04 11.27
Copra 65 6.00 6.00 3.90
SUB-TOTAL 109.54 104.04 15.17
Secondary Source
Rice Bran 15 -- -- 9.00
Rapseed Cake 9 -- -- 1.60
Sunflowerseed Cake 12 -- -- 0.40
Groundnut Cake 7 -- -- 0.20
Cottonseed & Others 7 -- -- 0.60
Mionr Oilseeds(TBOs) -- -- 1.00
Local PalmOil -- -- 0.80
SUB-TOTAL -- -- 13.60
GRAND TOTAL 267.04 224.59 53.57
Source: SEA of India
Cpo Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
1.01
0.99
0.98
1.05
1.05
1.01
1.04
0.93
0.92
0.94
1.01
1.06
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
In Lakh Tonnes
10 Lakh = 1 Million

40

41
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil
Edible Oil
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Refined Soy Oil
Palm Oil prices on the national bourse moving in lock steps with
Malaysian markets had risen to 632 levels, on reports that rains in
Indonesia and Malaysia, the biggest growers, will disrupt harvests.
The upside was also supported by the tight supplies and increasing
global demand, particularly from China. However, the bull-run
ended with the month of May & a bearish trend started, getting
continued till date. More softness in Palm Oil prices was found due
to peak production season, which gave rise to a scenario of good
supply prospects. On the contrary, there was limited demand from
northern hemisphere because of the summer season. Palm Oil
imports by China, the world's biggest buyer after India, declined to
the lowest level in four years as the economy slowed down.
Moreover, Palm Oil stocks in China were near to one million tonnes
by year-end, due to stagnant domestic demand. Higher inventories
of this commodity used in everything from candy to fuel extended
its decline in prices as stockpiles in Malaysia climbed further &
production outpaced exports. According to Malaysian Palm Oil
Board, inventories jumped to 2.56 million tonnes last month.
Higher availability & sluggish demand added to the bearish
sentiments, bringing down the prices by more than 25% on MCX &
31% on BMD. Similarly, the uptrend in Refined Soy oil futures
remain capped & fell from high of 817 levels, making low near 611
levels. Oil availability from domestic sources had declined due to
lower crushing of seeds. Hence, stockiest were filling the demand
gap through additional imports. India's vegetable oil imports
surged by 17% crossing 10 million tonnes mark in the 2011-12
marketing year that ended last month.
The scenario of forward months contracts quoting lower than the
current month counters are suggesting a bearish outlook for
Refined Soy oil during the first half of the year. Increasing
temperatures during summers & changing food habits with people
staying away from oily foods may keep the prices in the negative
zone. Adding to it, rising imports along with record soybean
production during last year could bring a situation of higher
availability of vegetable oil in the domestic market. India vegetable
oil imports are likely at 10.2 million MT in the 2012-13 marketing
year. In order to protect the interest & margins of domestic
Range : Rs. 620-800
industries, industry body Solvent Extractors' Association of India
had sought the government to hike import duty to 20% on refined
vegetable oil, but government made clear that it had no proposals to
raised import duty on edible oils. The counter may also face stiff
competition with other edible oil's as India's imports are
continuously rising year-on-year. Market participants would also
keep a watch on the movement of Indian rupee which has a dynamic
relationship with the imports of vegetable oil. The other factors that
might decide the direction of prices in days to come, will possibly be
the production scenario of soybean in upcoming Kharif season &
viable crush margin of processors. During the second half of the
year, the counter is expected to maintain a strong upside trend
taking support above 600 levels. The prices may see some peak
during the month of November-December when the seasonal
consumption will possible be at peak. Festive demand along with
winter season requirement could take prices towards 800-820
levels.
In long term, CPO futures are likely to trade in range 360-580 levels.
The recovery for upside could be at slower pace due to expectations
of more availability in months ahead. India's production of
vegetable oils will possibly get bigger for the next oil year owing to a
higher mustard crop. The higher carry forward stock from the
previous year would also keep a check on the prices. There are
Annual Outlook
Crude Palm Oil Range: MCX: Rs. 360-580
BMD: MYR 2100-3100
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
0.95 0.95
0.96
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.02
1.01
0.96
1.00
1.06
1.10
600.00
650.00
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Refined Soy Oil Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
reports that India started the new Oil Year on 1 November 2012
with record opening stocks (port stocks plus internal pipeline) of
1.65 million tonnes. Adding to it, according to Oil World estimates,
India will import 7.88 million tonnes of Palm Oil during the period
from October 2012 to September 2013 up from 7.47 million tonnes
in 2011/ 12. In the recent news, government has said that India has
no proposals to raise import duty on edible oils, rejecting an earlier
demand from the oilseed crushing industry.
The fundamentals of the international market also give a bearish
scenario for Palm Oil prices in year 2013. Production in Indonesia
will climb 8% to 28 million tonnes in the year that started on Oct. 1,
according to U.S. Department of Agriculture. Indonesian Palm Oil
stocks are currently between 2.5 million and 2.8 million tonnes.
Palm Oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's biggest producer after
Indonesia, probably held near a record last month as production
exceeded exports. In the latest update by Malaysian Palm Oil Board,
November Palm Oil stocks rose 2.3% to a record high of 2,562,900
tonnes from a revised 2,505,713 tonnes in October, 2012. Moreover,
the production in November 2012 has been pegged at 1,888,358
tonnes, higher by 16% as compared to the same period for 2011.
Market participants may stay away from bulk buying due to
sufficient availability of inventories on international as well as on
domestic markets. The sentiments would remain cautious too, as
Malaysia & Indonesia are likely to revise their tax structure so as to
speed up the exports. Malaysia is expected to cut the current CPO
export tax of 23% to a graduated basis and abolish a duty-free
shipments quota from January 1, in a bid to regain market share,
ease rising stock levels and counter competition from Indonesia.
Similarly, Indonesia is discussing changes to its export tax policy to
counter Malaysia's plan to lower tariffs on Crude Palm Oil
shipments from Jan. 1, 2013.
Estimate For Availability Of Vegetable Oils From Kharif Oilseeds
Crop And Secondary Source During 2012-13 Season
Oilseeds/ Oil 2012-13 Seasons Total Oil
S.E. Oils Recovery(%) Availability
Production MarketableSurplus
Kharif Kharif
Oilseeds
Groundnut (In Shell) 40 26.20 2.20 0.88
Soya 17 113.40 103.40 17.58
Rape/ Mustard/ Toria 33 1.50 1.50 0.50
Sunflower 35 1.50 1.50 0.53
Sesame 45 3.40 0.70 0.32
Castor 45 10.70 10.70 4.82
Niger 30 0.80 0.55 0.17
Safflower 30 -- -- --
Linseed 43 -- -- --
SUB-TOTAL 157.50 120.55 24.80
Other Oilseeds
Cottonseed 11.5 103.54 98.04 11.27
Copra 65 6.00 6.00 3.90
SUB-TOTAL 109.54 104.04 15.17
Secondary Source
Rice Bran 15 -- -- 9.00
Rapseed Cake 9 -- -- 1.60
Sunflowerseed Cake 12 -- -- 0.40
Groundnut Cake 7 -- -- 0.20
Cottonseed & Others 7 -- -- 0.60
Mionr Oilseeds(TBOs) -- -- 1.00
Local PalmOil -- -- 0.80
SUB-TOTAL -- -- 13.60
GRAND TOTAL 267.04 224.59 53.57
Source: SEA of India
Cpo Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
1.01
0.99
0.98
1.05
1.05
1.01
1.04
0.93
0.92
0.94
1.01
1.06
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
In Lakh Tonnes
10 Lakh = 1 Million

40

41
World Soybean Supply And Use
2012/ 13 Proj. Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Crush Exports Ending Stocks Domestic Total
World Nov 56.00 267.60 96.01 231.14 261.03 98.55 60.02
Dec 56.00 267.72 96.31 231.14 261.25 98.85 59.93
United States Nov 4.61 80.86 0.54 42.46 45.61 36.61 3.80
Dec 4.61 80.86 0.54 42.73 45.88 36.61 3.53
Total Foreign Nov 51.39 186.74 95.47 188.69 215.42 61.95 56.22
Dec 51.39 186.86 95.77 188.42 215.37 62.25 56.40
Major Exporters Nov 32.32 144.10 0.27 78.10 82.97 54.80 38.92
Dec 31.98 143.75 0.27 77.60 82.58 54.50 38.92
Argentina Nov 19.00 55.00 0.00 38.70 40.35 12.00 21.65
Dec 19.00 55.00 0.00 38.20 39.85 12.00 22.15
Brazil Nov 13.31 81.00 0.25 36.90 39.99 37.40 17.17
Dec 12.97 81.00 0.25 36.90 40.10 37.40 16.72
Major Importers Nov 16.93 15.27 85.76 85.55 102.33 0.30 15.32
Dec 17.15 15.12 86.06 85.85 102.63 0.30 15.39
China Nov 15.92 12.60 63.00 65.40 76.58 0.25 14.69
Dec 15.92 12.60 63.00 65.40 76.58 0.25 14.69
EU-27 Nov 0.43 1.10 11.00 11.35 12.25 0.03 0.25
Dec 0.56 0.95 11.30 11.65 12.55 0.03 0.23
Japan Nov 0.15 0.22 2.60 1.80 2.83 0.00 0.14
Dec 0.15 0.22 2.60 1.80 2.83 0.00 0.14
Mexico Nov 0.07 0.20 3.35 3.57 3.60 0.00 0.02
Dec 0.07 0.20 3.35 3.57 3.60 0.00 0.02
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
World Soybean Oil Supply And Use
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
2012/ 13 Proj. Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks
World Nov 3.74 43.07 8.28 43.65 8.53 2.90
Dec 3.82 43.18 8.41 43.62 8.78 3.00
United States Nov 1.15 8.09 0.16 8.17 0.54 0.69
Dec 1.15 8.30 0.16 8.12 0.82 0.67
Total Foreign Nov 2.59 34.99 8.12 35.49 7.99 2.22
Dec 2.66 34.88 8.25 35.50 7.96 2.33
Major Exporters Nov 0.76 16.53 0.50 10.79 6.26 0.74
Dec 0.82 16.51 0.50 10.80 6.26 0.77
Argentina Nov 0.29 7.38 0.00 3.32 4.07 0.28
Dec 0.28 7.30 0.00 3.32 4.07 0.19
Brazil Nov 0.30 7.08 0.00 5.37 1.73 0.28
Dec 0.40 7.08 0.00 5.37 1.73 0.38
EU-27 Nov 0.17 2.07 0.50 2.10 0.47 0.18
Dec 0.14 2.13 0.50 2.11 0.47 0.19
Major Importers Nov 1.16 13.90 3.65 17.45 0.18 1.06
Dec 1.16 13.85 3.73 17.41 0.18 1.14
China Nov 0.62 11.71 1.40 12.81 0.06 0.85
Dec 0.62 11.71 1.40 12.81 0.06 0.85
India Nov 0.36 1.79 1.07 3.07 0.00 0.15
Dec 0.37 1.77 1.15 3.05 0.01 0.23
North Africa Nov 0.18 0.40 1.18 1.57 0.12 0.06
Dec 0.18 0.38 1.18 1.55 0.12 0.06
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
in Million Metric Tons
in Million Metric Tons
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil
World Soybean Meal Supply And Use
2012/ 13 Proj. Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks
World Nov 10.09 182.35 58.45 180.77 61.07 9.05
Dec 10.07 182.38 58.25 180.81 60.32 9.56
United States Nov 0.27 33.70 0.23 26.76 7.17 0.27
Dec 0.27 33.88 0.23 26.67 7.44 0.27
Total Foreign Nov 9.82 148.65 58.22 154.01 53.90 8.78
Dec 9.80 148.49 58.02 154.14 52.89 9.28
Major Exporters Nov 6.93 66.74 0.06 18.97 48.51 6.24
Dec 6.88 66.32 0.06 18.88 47.69 6.69
Argentina Nov 3.92 30.15 0.00 0.77 29.76 3.54
Dec 3.90 29.80 0.00 0.78 28.76 4.16
Brazil Nov 2.68 28.60 0.05 14.40 14.50 2.43
Dec 2.87 28.60 0.05 14.40 14.68 2.44
India Nov 0.33 7.99 0.01 3.80 4.25 0.27
Dec 0.11 7.92 0.01 3.70 4.25 0.09
Major Importers Nov 1.59 13.04 35.45 47.84 0.59 1.65
Dec 1.55 13.28 35.25 47.84 0.59 1.65
EU-27 Nov 0.32 8.95 21.90 30.40 0.55 0.21
Dec 0.29 9.18 21.70 30.40 0.55 0.22
Southeast Asia Nov 1.06 2.72 11.18 13.64 0.04 1.28
Dec 1.05 2.72 11.18 13.64 0.04 1.27
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Crude Palm Oil Production - Malaysia Crude Palm & Palm Oil Stocks - Malaysia
1627.80
1494.40
1287.20
1185.10
1211.30
1272.60
1383.70
1470.60
1691.95
1664.25
2004.24
1938.43
1888.36
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
Nov'11 Dec'11 Jan '12 Feb.'12 Mar '12 April '12 May'12 June'12 July'12 Aug'12 Sept.'12 Oct '12 Nov'12
Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Board Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Board
in Thousand tonnes
2
0
7
0
.
0
0
2
0
5
8
.
4
0
2
0
1
9
.
0
0
2
0
6
2
.
1
0
1
9
5
4
.
1
0
1
8
4
7
.
2
0
1
7
8
5
.
7
0
1
6
9
9
.
1
0
1
9
9
9
.
0
7
2
1
1
2
.
8
0
2
4
8
0
.
9
9
2
5
0
5
.
1
7
2
5
6
2
.
9
0
1
2
2
8
.
4
0
1
0
6
6
.
3
0
1
0
3
6
.
7
0
1
0
4
7
.
9
0
9
7
6
.
3
0
9
8
9
.
3
0
9
7
8
.
9
0
7
8
5
.
7
0
9
5
3
.
4
8
1
1
9
1
.
4
9
1
6
0
6
.
7
1
1
5
6
3
.
6
6
1
6
6
4
.
7
4
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
Nov'11 Dec '11 Jan'12 Feb. '12 Mar '12 April '12May'12 June'12 July'12 Aug'12 Sept. '12 Oct'12 Nov'12
Palm Oil Crude Palm
in Thousand tonnes
in Million Metric Tons

42

43
World Soybean Supply And Use
2012/ 13 Proj. Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Crush Exports Ending Stocks Domestic Total
World Nov 56.00 267.60 96.01 231.14 261.03 98.55 60.02
Dec 56.00 267.72 96.31 231.14 261.25 98.85 59.93
United States Nov 4.61 80.86 0.54 42.46 45.61 36.61 3.80
Dec 4.61 80.86 0.54 42.73 45.88 36.61 3.53
Total Foreign Nov 51.39 186.74 95.47 188.69 215.42 61.95 56.22
Dec 51.39 186.86 95.77 188.42 215.37 62.25 56.40
Major Exporters Nov 32.32 144.10 0.27 78.10 82.97 54.80 38.92
Dec 31.98 143.75 0.27 77.60 82.58 54.50 38.92
Argentina Nov 19.00 55.00 0.00 38.70 40.35 12.00 21.65
Dec 19.00 55.00 0.00 38.20 39.85 12.00 22.15
Brazil Nov 13.31 81.00 0.25 36.90 39.99 37.40 17.17
Dec 12.97 81.00 0.25 36.90 40.10 37.40 16.72
Major Importers Nov 16.93 15.27 85.76 85.55 102.33 0.30 15.32
Dec 17.15 15.12 86.06 85.85 102.63 0.30 15.39
China Nov 15.92 12.60 63.00 65.40 76.58 0.25 14.69
Dec 15.92 12.60 63.00 65.40 76.58 0.25 14.69
EU-27 Nov 0.43 1.10 11.00 11.35 12.25 0.03 0.25
Dec 0.56 0.95 11.30 11.65 12.55 0.03 0.23
Japan Nov 0.15 0.22 2.60 1.80 2.83 0.00 0.14
Dec 0.15 0.22 2.60 1.80 2.83 0.00 0.14
Mexico Nov 0.07 0.20 3.35 3.57 3.60 0.00 0.02
Dec 0.07 0.20 3.35 3.57 3.60 0.00 0.02
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
World Soybean Oil Supply And Use
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
2012/ 13 Proj. Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks
World Nov 3.74 43.07 8.28 43.65 8.53 2.90
Dec 3.82 43.18 8.41 43.62 8.78 3.00
United States Nov 1.15 8.09 0.16 8.17 0.54 0.69
Dec 1.15 8.30 0.16 8.12 0.82 0.67
Total Foreign Nov 2.59 34.99 8.12 35.49 7.99 2.22
Dec 2.66 34.88 8.25 35.50 7.96 2.33
Major Exporters Nov 0.76 16.53 0.50 10.79 6.26 0.74
Dec 0.82 16.51 0.50 10.80 6.26 0.77
Argentina Nov 0.29 7.38 0.00 3.32 4.07 0.28
Dec 0.28 7.30 0.00 3.32 4.07 0.19
Brazil Nov 0.30 7.08 0.00 5.37 1.73 0.28
Dec 0.40 7.08 0.00 5.37 1.73 0.38
EU-27 Nov 0.17 2.07 0.50 2.10 0.47 0.18
Dec 0.14 2.13 0.50 2.11 0.47 0.19
Major Importers Nov 1.16 13.90 3.65 17.45 0.18 1.06
Dec 1.16 13.85 3.73 17.41 0.18 1.14
China Nov 0.62 11.71 1.40 12.81 0.06 0.85
Dec 0.62 11.71 1.40 12.81 0.06 0.85
India Nov 0.36 1.79 1.07 3.07 0.00 0.15
Dec 0.37 1.77 1.15 3.05 0.01 0.23
North Africa Nov 0.18 0.40 1.18 1.57 0.12 0.06
Dec 0.18 0.38 1.18 1.55 0.12 0.06
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
in Million Metric Tons
in Million Metric Tons
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Oil Seeds & Edible Oil
World Soybean Meal Supply And Use
2012/ 13 Proj. Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic Total Exports Ending Stocks
World Nov 10.09 182.35 58.45 180.77 61.07 9.05
Dec 10.07 182.38 58.25 180.81 60.32 9.56
United States Nov 0.27 33.70 0.23 26.76 7.17 0.27
Dec 0.27 33.88 0.23 26.67 7.44 0.27
Total Foreign Nov 9.82 148.65 58.22 154.01 53.90 8.78
Dec 9.80 148.49 58.02 154.14 52.89 9.28
Major Exporters Nov 6.93 66.74 0.06 18.97 48.51 6.24
Dec 6.88 66.32 0.06 18.88 47.69 6.69
Argentina Nov 3.92 30.15 0.00 0.77 29.76 3.54
Dec 3.90 29.80 0.00 0.78 28.76 4.16
Brazil Nov 2.68 28.60 0.05 14.40 14.50 2.43
Dec 2.87 28.60 0.05 14.40 14.68 2.44
India Nov 0.33 7.99 0.01 3.80 4.25 0.27
Dec 0.11 7.92 0.01 3.70 4.25 0.09
Major Importers Nov 1.59 13.04 35.45 47.84 0.59 1.65
Dec 1.55 13.28 35.25 47.84 0.59 1.65
EU-27 Nov 0.32 8.95 21.90 30.40 0.55 0.21
Dec 0.29 9.18 21.70 30.40 0.55 0.22
Southeast Asia Nov 1.06 2.72 11.18 13.64 0.04 1.28
Dec 1.05 2.72 11.18 13.64 0.04 1.27
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Crude Palm Oil Production - Malaysia Crude Palm & Palm Oil Stocks - Malaysia
1627.80
1494.40
1287.20
1185.10
1211.30
1272.60
1383.70
1470.60
1691.95
1664.25
2004.24
1938.43
1888.36
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
Nov'11 Dec'11 Jan '12 Feb.'12 Mar '12 April '12 May'12 June'12 July'12 Aug'12 Sept.'12 Oct '12 Nov'12
Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Board Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Board
in Thousand tonnes
2
0
7
0
.
0
0
2
0
5
8
.
4
0
2
0
1
9
.
0
0
2
0
6
2
.
1
0
1
9
5
4
.
1
0
1
8
4
7
.
2
0
1
7
8
5
.
7
0
1
6
9
9
.
1
0
1
9
9
9
.
0
7
2
1
1
2
.
8
0
2
4
8
0
.
9
9
2
5
0
5
.
1
7
2
5
6
2
.
9
0
1
2
2
8
.
4
0
1
0
6
6
.
3
0
1
0
3
6
.
7
0
1
0
4
7
.
9
0
9
7
6
.
3
0
9
8
9
.
3
0
9
7
8
.
9
0
7
8
5
.
7
0
9
5
3
.
4
8
1
1
9
1
.
4
9
1
6
0
6
.
7
1
1
5
6
3
.
6
6
1
6
6
4
.
7
4
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
Nov'11 Dec '11 Jan'12 Feb. '12 Mar '12 April '12May'12 June'12 July'12 Aug'12 Sept. '12 Oct'12 Nov'12
Palm Oil Crude Palm
in Thousand tonnes
in Million Metric Tons

42

43
Forward Curves Annual Commentary & Outlook: Other Commodities
Forward Curve Of U.S Soybean Futures Forward Curve Of Mustard Futures (NCDEX)
Source: barchart.com
1502.40
1495.00
1475.40
1458.20
1425.60
1368.00
1250.00
1300.00
1350.00
1400.00
1450.00
1500.00
1550.00
Jan '13 Mar '13 May'13 Jul '13 Aug'13 Sep '13
Source: NCDEX
4,089.00
3,593.00
3,628.00
3,668.00
3,300.00
3,400.00
3,500.00
3,600.00
3,700.00
3,800.00
3,900.00
4,000.00
4,100.00
4,200.00
January April May June
Forward Curve Of Soybean Futures (NCDEX) Forward Curve Of U.S Soybean Oil Futures
Source: NCDEX
3,402.00
3,462.50
3,449.00
3,438.50
3,450.50
3,370.00
3,380.00
3,390.00
3,400.00
3,410.00
3,420.00
3,430.00
3,440.00
3,450.00
3,460.00
3,470.00
January February March April May
Source: barchart.com
410.50
416.10
423.90
431.50
437.50
395.00
400.00
405.00
410.00
415.00
420.00
425.00
430.00
435.00
440.00
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Forward Curve Of Refined Soy Oil Futures (NCDEX) Forward Curve Of Malaysian CPO Futures
Source: Reuters Source: NCDEX
712.65
701.65
695.35
698.75
699.60
685.00
690.00
695.00
700.00
705.00
710.00
715.00
January February March April May
2,190.00
2,275.00
2,346.00
2,406.00
2,445.00 2,445.00
2,478.00
2,489.00
2,507.00
2000.00
2050.00
2100.00
2150.00
2200.00
2250.00
2300.00
2350.00
2400.00
2450.00
2500.00
2550.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Nov
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Cents per bushel
Rs./ Qtl.
(Rs. 10/ Kgs)
Rs./ Qtl.
Cents per pound
MYR/ tonne
Sugar
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
The year gone by was a year of smooth supply if we talk about Sugar
production. 2011/ 12 is expected to be the year in which global
Sugar production finally meets demand after three years of deficits,
as per an analysis. In India, during the first half of the year, Sugar
futures on national bourse consolidated within the range of 2700-
3000 levels owing to the prospects of higher production in Uttar
Pradesh and higher recovery in Maharashtra amid smooth global
supply. Sugar output in the first three months of 2011-12 season
starting October was up by 17%. The production of Sugar during
2011-12 Sugar season (October-September) was provisionally
estimated at 260.0 lac tonnes as against the estimated consumption
of about 220.0 lac tonnes. Based on the carry-over stocks from the
previous season, production of Sugar, consumption, exports of
Sugar allowed, the closing stock at the end of September, 2012 was
provisionally estimated at 62 lac tonnes. Market participants were
also cautious amid buzz of a partial decontrol of this sector. Later
during the year, the allowance of exports flared up Sugar prices on
the national bourse, making it to touch of 3672 levels. Bullish
domestic and international futures supported the sentiment.
Moreover, deficit rain had triggered concerns over potential impact
on kharif production. However, with the onset of festivals during
the month of September, when demand generally rises, govt.
started to allocate higher quota for sale in open markets, which
capped further upside in the counter. The monthly release of non-
levy Sugar season 2011-12 totaled to 187.18 lakh tonnes. Besides,
supplies outweighed demand when Indian mills signed deals to
import Brazilian raw Sugar as a gap between domestic and overseas
prices widened. A rebound in output in Brazil, improved harvests in
China & Australia boosted the global supplies. On the international
bourse, raw Sugar on ICE Futures fell to a two-year low of 18.81
cents on Sept. 6, 2012. Overall, the fact of supplies outweighing
demand kept a check on the upside moves & made the sweetener
slide down, near to 3230 levels.
Supply surplus, cheaper Brazilian export, fall in local currency, talks
to impose import duty were the major triggers for the Sugar
counter in 2012. The fundamentals of domestic demand-supply
during 2011-12 suggested that there was a surplus of over 4 million
tonnes & with an opening balance of around 6 million tonnes. Again
this season 2012-13, India is likely to produce 23-24 million tonnes,
lower by 2 million tonnes as compared to the previous year. This
drop in production is due to lesser acreage in major growing states
like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. However, it will be
a surplus production for the third consecutive year, against the
annual domestic demand of 22 million tonnes. Adding to supply,
Range: Rs. 2800-3650
millers are importing, as its being a more profitable venture. Taking
a foresight of this over supplied situation, the Food Ministry has
recommended a hike in import duty on white Sugar to 20%. On the
similar lines, in international platform there are no signs of the
global surplus disappearing any time soon in 2012-13 as world
supply including inventories will climb 3.7% to 240.6 million
tonnes & and imports will decline 6.5%, as projected by
International Sugar Association.
On the demand side, Indian export scenario is looking bleak, as
many shipments are expected not to happen now. The domestic
consumption is pegged at 22 million tonnes.
In days to come, investors would be keeping a watch on the
developments taking place over de-control of the Sugar industry.
Tracking the latest development, the government has relaxed some
of its controls on the sector & has decided to implement mandatory
blending of 5% ethanol with petrol at market price. This would turn
out to be a boon for the Sugar industry as realization may surge in
days to come. Before this, mills were suffering losses while
supplying ethanol to oil companies at Rs 27/ litre as against market
price of Rs 36/ litre. The Food Ministry has also allocated quota to
mills for the next four months as against the practice of quarterly
release. A quantity of 70 lakh tonnes of non-levy quota is allotted for
open market sale, for the months of December, 2012 to March,
2013.
Taking into consideration these fundamentals, it looks like the
high is over. Sugar futures till the month of May, will probably find a
bottom near 3000 levels, pressurized by arrivals of ongoing
crushing season. Later, with the onset of summer season from
month of June, followed by festivities getting end by Diwali, demand
is expected to add cushion to the counter.
Sugar Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
1.01
1.01
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.96
1.01
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.03
1.02
2000.00
2200.00
2400.00
2600.00
2800.00
3000.00
3200.00
3400.00
3600.00
3800.00
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

44

45
Forward Curves Annual Commentary & Outlook: Other Commodities
Forward Curve Of U.S Soybean Futures Forward Curve Of Mustard Futures (NCDEX)
Source: barchart.com
1502.40
1495.00
1475.40
1458.20
1425.60
1368.00
1250.00
1300.00
1350.00
1400.00
1450.00
1500.00
1550.00
Jan '13 Mar '13 May'13 Jul '13 Aug'13 Sep '13
Source: NCDEX
4,089.00
3,593.00
3,628.00
3,668.00
3,300.00
3,400.00
3,500.00
3,600.00
3,700.00
3,800.00
3,900.00
4,000.00
4,100.00
4,200.00
January April May June
Forward Curve Of Soybean Futures (NCDEX) Forward Curve Of U.S Soybean Oil Futures
Source: NCDEX
3,402.00
3,462.50
3,449.00
3,438.50
3,450.50
3,370.00
3,380.00
3,390.00
3,400.00
3,410.00
3,420.00
3,430.00
3,440.00
3,450.00
3,460.00
3,470.00
January February March April May
Source: barchart.com
410.50
416.10
423.90
431.50
437.50
395.00
400.00
405.00
410.00
415.00
420.00
425.00
430.00
435.00
440.00
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Forward Curve Of Refined Soy Oil Futures (NCDEX) Forward Curve Of Malaysian CPO Futures
Source: Reuters Source: NCDEX
712.65
701.65
695.35
698.75
699.60
685.00
690.00
695.00
700.00
705.00
710.00
715.00
January February March April May
2,190.00
2,275.00
2,346.00
2,406.00
2,445.00 2,445.00
2,478.00
2,489.00
2,507.00
2000.00
2050.00
2100.00
2150.00
2200.00
2250.00
2300.00
2350.00
2400.00
2450.00
2500.00
2550.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Nov
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Cents per bushel
Rs./ Qtl.
(Rs. 10/ Kgs)
Rs./ Qtl.
Cents per pound
MYR/ tonne
Sugar
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
The year gone by was a year of smooth supply if we talk about Sugar
production. 2011/ 12 is expected to be the year in which global
Sugar production finally meets demand after three years of deficits,
as per an analysis. In India, during the first half of the year, Sugar
futures on national bourse consolidated within the range of 2700-
3000 levels owing to the prospects of higher production in Uttar
Pradesh and higher recovery in Maharashtra amid smooth global
supply. Sugar output in the first three months of 2011-12 season
starting October was up by 17%. The production of Sugar during
2011-12 Sugar season (October-September) was provisionally
estimated at 260.0 lac tonnes as against the estimated consumption
of about 220.0 lac tonnes. Based on the carry-over stocks from the
previous season, production of Sugar, consumption, exports of
Sugar allowed, the closing stock at the end of September, 2012 was
provisionally estimated at 62 lac tonnes. Market participants were
also cautious amid buzz of a partial decontrol of this sector. Later
during the year, the allowance of exports flared up Sugar prices on
the national bourse, making it to touch of 3672 levels. Bullish
domestic and international futures supported the sentiment.
Moreover, deficit rain had triggered concerns over potential impact
on kharif production. However, with the onset of festivals during
the month of September, when demand generally rises, govt.
started to allocate higher quota for sale in open markets, which
capped further upside in the counter. The monthly release of non-
levy Sugar season 2011-12 totaled to 187.18 lakh tonnes. Besides,
supplies outweighed demand when Indian mills signed deals to
import Brazilian raw Sugar as a gap between domestic and overseas
prices widened. A rebound in output in Brazil, improved harvests in
China & Australia boosted the global supplies. On the international
bourse, raw Sugar on ICE Futures fell to a two-year low of 18.81
cents on Sept. 6, 2012. Overall, the fact of supplies outweighing
demand kept a check on the upside moves & made the sweetener
slide down, near to 3230 levels.
Supply surplus, cheaper Brazilian export, fall in local currency, talks
to impose import duty were the major triggers for the Sugar
counter in 2012. The fundamentals of domestic demand-supply
during 2011-12 suggested that there was a surplus of over 4 million
tonnes & with an opening balance of around 6 million tonnes. Again
this season 2012-13, India is likely to produce 23-24 million tonnes,
lower by 2 million tonnes as compared to the previous year. This
drop in production is due to lesser acreage in major growing states
like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. However, it will be
a surplus production for the third consecutive year, against the
annual domestic demand of 22 million tonnes. Adding to supply,
Range: Rs. 2800-3650
millers are importing, as its being a more profitable venture. Taking
a foresight of this over supplied situation, the Food Ministry has
recommended a hike in import duty on white Sugar to 20%. On the
similar lines, in international platform there are no signs of the
global surplus disappearing any time soon in 2012-13 as world
supply including inventories will climb 3.7% to 240.6 million
tonnes & and imports will decline 6.5%, as projected by
International Sugar Association.
On the demand side, Indian export scenario is looking bleak, as
many shipments are expected not to happen now. The domestic
consumption is pegged at 22 million tonnes.
In days to come, investors would be keeping a watch on the
developments taking place over de-control of the Sugar industry.
Tracking the latest development, the government has relaxed some
of its controls on the sector & has decided to implement mandatory
blending of 5% ethanol with petrol at market price. This would turn
out to be a boon for the Sugar industry as realization may surge in
days to come. Before this, mills were suffering losses while
supplying ethanol to oil companies at Rs 27/ litre as against market
price of Rs 36/ litre. The Food Ministry has also allocated quota to
mills for the next four months as against the practice of quarterly
release. A quantity of 70 lakh tonnes of non-levy quota is allotted for
open market sale, for the months of December, 2012 to March,
2013.
Taking into consideration these fundamentals, it looks like the
high is over. Sugar futures till the month of May, will probably find a
bottom near 3000 levels, pressurized by arrivals of ongoing
crushing season. Later, with the onset of summer season from
month of June, followed by festivities getting end by Diwali, demand
is expected to add cushion to the counter.
Sugar Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
1.01
1.01
0.98
0.96
0.94
0.96
1.01
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.03
1.02
2000.00
2200.00
2400.00
2600.00
2800.00
3000.00
3200.00
3400.00
3600.00
3800.00
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

44

45
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Other Commodities
Wheat
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Essential commodity Wheat gave terrific rise of more than 30% on
the back of shortage in global market & advantages turning onto
Indian exporters. Global production saw dips more often due to
changing weather patterns especially in United States of America,
Australia and Russia, which are the major driving force in the global
Wheat market. During the first half of the year, prices on the
national bourse plunged down near to 1110 levels weighed by
prospects of higher production & carryover stocks. The
government's foodgrains stock rose by 21% to 53.4 million tonnes
as of April 1 from 44.3 million tonnes the year-ago period,
according to the Food Corporation of India (FCI). The government
holding of Wheat stocks has been increasing each year and now
stands at close to more than a third of the production. Besides, there
were estimates that India's Wheat output in 2011/ 12 would cross
the current official forecast of a record 88.31 million tonnes due to
favourable weather conditions. However, by the month of June,
Wheat futures witnessed a break out above 1200 levels wherein
mills and food producers like biscuit makers faced severe shortage
of grains. Later by the end of the year prices on the national bourse
reached high of 1705 levels as India explored the possibility of
exporting & lifted all controls on Wheat exports in September after
restricting shipments for three years, with a strategy to reduce
inventories. Indian exporters took the advantage after Ukraine
confirmed a ban on exports of the grain. The US Department of
Agriculture had also reported that drought may cut combined
Wheat harvests in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan by 37% past
year.
Amazing rally of Wheat has surprised the world on top of drought in
several countries. Apart from US and Australia, drought also hit the
Black Sea countries of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, which
normally produce about 10% of the world's Wheat. Furthermore,
trade has improved in India on higher exports, and is likely to
continue in 2013 as well. However, in long term, India's business
may get intensely contested as supplier countries will keenly be
interested to sell their remaining supplies soon at competitive
prices. Meanwhile, the Commission on Agricultural Costs and
Prices (CACP) has proposed the government to allow another 1.5
Range: Rs. 1400-1800
million tonnes of exports, as the trades could fetch good price as
much as $320/ tonne. According to United States Department of
Agriculture India's Wheat export is expected to touch 6 million
tonnes in the 2012-13 marketing year (MY) on the back of firm
global prices.
As regards supply side fundamentals, according to the latest IGC
report, Wheat production estimate for the year 2012-13 has been
slashed from 655 million tonnes to 654 million tonnes as lower
harvesting is expected in Australia and EU. India in 2012/ 13 season
is likely to harvest a bumper crop in its sixth consecutive year.
According to National Council of Applied Economic Research
(NCAER) & Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)
assuming normal weather conditions, production in 2013 is
expected to remain at around 90 million tonnes as against 93.9
million tonnes last year. Demand amounts to about 76 million
tonnes a year. A condition of self-sufficiency is prevailing in the
country, based on the fact that there is over 40 million tonnes of
Wheat as on November 1, almost 3 times more than the buffer
norms. The outlook of Wheat futures looks range bound with a
downward bias till the month of July-August, as supplies from fresh
harvest will trickle from various countries viz. India, China, U.S &
EU-25. Adding to it, higher supplies from government godowns may
bring down prices to 1400 levels. Later during the year, festivity
demand coupled with lower level buying will possibly bring up the
prices near 1650 levels.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Wheat Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
1.01
0.97
0.90
0.94
0.96
0.96
0.99
1.03
1.01
1.07
1.09
1.08
1000.00
1100.00
1200.00
1300.00
1400.00
1500.00
1600.00
1700.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

47
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Other Commodities
Wheat
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Essential commodity Wheat gave terrific rise of more than 30% on
the back of shortage in global market & advantages turning onto
Indian exporters. Global production saw dips more often due to
changing weather patterns especially in United States of America,
Australia and Russia, which are the major driving force in the global
Wheat market. During the first half of the year, prices on the
national bourse plunged down near to 1110 levels weighed by
prospects of higher production & carryover stocks. The
government's foodgrains stock rose by 21% to 53.4 million tonnes
as of April 1 from 44.3 million tonnes the year-ago period,
according to the Food Corporation of India (FCI). The government
holding of Wheat stocks has been increasing each year and now
stands at close to more than a third of the production. Besides, there
were estimates that India's Wheat output in 2011/ 12 would cross
the current official forecast of a record 88.31 million tonnes due to
favourable weather conditions. However, by the month of June,
Wheat futures witnessed a break out above 1200 levels wherein
mills and food producers like biscuit makers faced severe shortage
of grains. Later by the end of the year prices on the national bourse
reached high of 1705 levels as India explored the possibility of
exporting & lifted all controls on Wheat exports in September after
restricting shipments for three years, with a strategy to reduce
inventories. Indian exporters took the advantage after Ukraine
confirmed a ban on exports of the grain. The US Department of
Agriculture had also reported that drought may cut combined
Wheat harvests in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan by 37% past
year.
Amazing rally of Wheat has surprised the world on top of drought in
several countries. Apart from US and Australia, drought also hit the
Black Sea countries of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, which
normally produce about 10% of the world's Wheat. Furthermore,
trade has improved in India on higher exports, and is likely to
continue in 2013 as well. However, in long term, India's business
may get intensely contested as supplier countries will keenly be
interested to sell their remaining supplies soon at competitive
prices. Meanwhile, the Commission on Agricultural Costs and
Prices (CACP) has proposed the government to allow another 1.5
Range: Rs. 1400-1800
million tonnes of exports, as the trades could fetch good price as
much as $320/ tonne. According to United States Department of
Agriculture India's Wheat export is expected to touch 6 million
tonnes in the 2012-13 marketing year (MY) on the back of firm
global prices.
As regards supply side fundamentals, according to the latest IGC
report, Wheat production estimate for the year 2012-13 has been
slashed from 655 million tonnes to 654 million tonnes as lower
harvesting is expected in Australia and EU. India in 2012/ 13 season
is likely to harvest a bumper crop in its sixth consecutive year.
According to National Council of Applied Economic Research
(NCAER) & Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)
assuming normal weather conditions, production in 2013 is
expected to remain at around 90 million tonnes as against 93.9
million tonnes last year. Demand amounts to about 76 million
tonnes a year. A condition of self-sufficiency is prevailing in the
country, based on the fact that there is over 40 million tonnes of
Wheat as on November 1, almost 3 times more than the buffer
norms. The outlook of Wheat futures looks range bound with a
downward bias till the month of July-August, as supplies from fresh
harvest will trickle from various countries viz. India, China, U.S &
EU-25. Adding to it, higher supplies from government godowns may
bring down prices to 1400 levels. Later during the year, festivity
demand coupled with lower level buying will possibly bring up the
prices near 1650 levels.
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013
Wheat Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
1.01
0.97
0.90
0.94
0.96
0.96
0.99
1.03
1.01
1.07
1.09
1.08
1000.00
1100.00
1200.00
1300.00
1400.00
1500.00
1600.00
1700.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research

47
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Other Commodities Annual Commentary & Outlook: Other Commodities
Kapas
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Wild swings were witnessed in Kapas throughout the last year, gave
opportunities to both buyers and sellers. Kapas futures posted
decent gains by more than 25%, supported by the factor of demand
outpacing supply. During the first quarter of the year, prices
plunged & touched 800 levels as on March 5, as India had banned
exports briefly for a week. Later government withdrew the ban on
cotton exports imposed but it has suspended issuing new export
registration certificates (RC) until further orders. Taking
advantage of lower level buying & reports from USDA that India's
cotton output was likely to dip by 2 million bales to 32.3 million in
the 2012-13 marketing year (August-July), Kapas prices made a
high of 1184 levels in year 2012. Adding to it, the Cotton Advisory
Board projected a lower closing stock for 2011-12 season ending
September at 25.1 lakh bales as compared to 39.10 in 2010-11.
Later, from the month of September, profit booking coupled with
news of imports from Zimbabwe, Kenya, and South Africa cooled
down the prices. Imports touched 10 lakh bales, compared with the
Cotton Advisory Board's (CAB) projection of 6 lakh bales for the
entire 2011-12 season. By the end of the year the move to hike
registration limits for cotton exports to 30,000 bales from 10,000
bales stabilized the counter above 950 levels.
On the supply side domestic production in 2012-13 season has
been estimated at 334 lakh bales, with a yield of 489 Kg/ hectare.
The balance sheet for the current cotton season 2012-13, is
showing a higher carry forward stock of 34.56 lakh bales, higher by
21% vis--vis 2011-12. As regards, the fundamentals of the
international market, according to International Cotton Advisory
Council, world cotton production of 25.9 million tonnes is running
ahead of use at 23.4 million tonnes.
Cotton Advisory Board has projected a downfall in exports by more
than 45% in season 2012-13. India is losing ground to new
competitors like Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Turkey and
Mexico in apparel exports, as these countries are in advantageous
position on the back off low cost of manufacturing, adapting to new
trends & giving a shorter delivery time. However, Indian exporters
are targeting new destinations like China, Latin America, Norway,
South Korea and Russia. However, the domestic consumption is
showing a growth of 6.5% which includes mills & non-mills. On
international market, according to latest USDA statistics, imports
by China are down by more than 50%, which will reduce world
Range: Rs. 800-1200
trade this season. China is expected to consume 36.0 million bales,
a decrease of 2.0 million bales (5%) from the preceding year due to
the Government's ongoing high domestic support price.
Days ahead, Kapas futures during the first quarter will possibly
manage to take support above 900 levels. Thereafter, some range
bound movements are likely to be seen due to slow economic
growth with reduce consumer demand for textile products. Later
during the year, it is expected that from the month of August prices
are likely to rise towards 1150 levels, with the onset of festivals &
demand for new clothing's.
Cotton Balance Sheet (India)
Item 2012-13 (P)* 2011-12
Supply
Opening stock 28.56 45.77
Crop size 334.00 353.00
Imports 12.00 12.00
Total Availability 374.56 410.77
Demand
Mill Consumption 230.00 217.68
Small-Mill consumption 20.00 21.63
Non-Mill Consumption 20.00 14.09
Total Consumption 270.00 253.4
Exports 70.00 128.81
Total Disappearance 340.00 382.21
Carry Forward 34.56 28.56
Source: Cotton Corporation of India
* As estimated by CAB in its meeting held on 04-10-12
** Based on verified figure.
P-Provisional
(Quantity in lakh bales of 170 kgs each )
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

48
Kapas Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.95
0.99
1.03
0.98
1.01
0.98
1.00
0.99
0.97
1.01
1.01
1.06
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
900.00
950.00
1000.00
1050.00
1100.00
1150.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Chana
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
A bullish sentiment prevailed around Chana futures from 3020
levels, throughout the year supported by mis-match between
demand-supply. The counter gained by more than 23%, backed by
estimates of lower production & rise in consumption, which had
always kept buyers attracted on the national bourse & on the spot
markets. Government of India made effort to boost the production
of pulses & raised the MSP for Chana by 33% or Rs.700/ qtl to
Rs.2800/ qtl. According the fourth advance estimates released by
the Agriculture ministry, Chana output projection for 2011-12 had
been revised upward to 75.8 lakh tonnes from 74 lakh tonnes
estimated earlier, still 10% lower than 82.2 lakh tonnes produced in
2010-11. In a view to meet the demand from various consumer
segments, India imported around 3.36 million tonnes of pulses
during 2011-12, mostly from Myanmar, Australia and Canada.
However, with the onset of rabi season, more farmers were seen
getting interested getting in this crop for cultivation. Factors like
profit booking & millers staying away from buying at higher levels,
made the prices fall to 3970 levels from a high of 5000 levels
witnessed during the month of October.
This vital commodity is expected to give lucrative return in 2013
too. Tracking the demand-supply scenario, according to National
Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), production of
Kharif pulses is expected to be around 15% less than last year at
5.26 MT and Rabi pulses output of 11.5 MT. The total pulses
production in 2012-13 would be 17 MT, i.e. lower by 2MT as
compared to the last year. As per the Assocham estimates India's
pulses demand might go up to 21.42 MT in 2013-14. Now to fill this
gap India's dependence on import of pulses is expected to rise in the
2012-13, due to lower production of pulses, taking advantage of
higher production of exporting nations. In a move to increase
imports, government has raised the subsidy on imported pulses to
Rs.20/ kg from the earlier Rs.10/ kg.
On the international platform, according to Agriculture and Agri-
Food Canada (AAFC), suggests that production of chickpeas in
Canada is estimated to have risen by 15% to 105 thousand tonnes in
Range: Rs. 3200-4800
2012-13. Supply is forecasted to be higher than last year and, as a
result, exports are expected to rise to 50 thousand tonnes as
compared to 36 thousand tonnes in 2011-12. As per the projections
given by USDA, in MY 2012/ 2013, Burma's bean and pulse
production is estimated to be higher due to an increase in
production area, supported by improvement in weather conditions.
On the other hand, in order to improve the domestic availability
scenario, government has undertaken various other measures to
escalate the productivity of pulses. The minimum support price
(MSP) of Chana has been increased to Rs 3,200/ qtl for the 2013-14
marketing year a rise of about 14% as compared to 2012-13. In
2012-13, the MSP for Chana and Masur stood at Rs 2,800 a quintal
each. In another move, the prohibition on export of pulses was
extended till March 2013.
In days to come, market participants would be keeping a watch on
the area under cultivation. The harvest of these crops will be
undertaken during March & April. Days ahead, Chana futures are
likely to take support above 3300 levels. As per the seasonality, the
counter may show steady pace of gains from the month of May till
October, with the onset of festivals & seasonal demand during
marriage seasons. Lower level buying & increasing consumption
pattern may lend support to the counter. In long term the counter
may witness 4700-4800 levels.
Chana Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.95
0.92
0.93 0.94
0.95
0.99
1.05
1.03
1.04
1.10
1.06
1.05
3000.00
3200.00
3400.00
3600.00
3800.00
4000.00
4200.00
4400.00
4600.00
4800.00
5000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

49
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Annual Commentary & Outlook: Other Commodities Annual Commentary & Outlook: Other Commodities
Kapas
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
Wild swings were witnessed in Kapas throughout the last year, gave
opportunities to both buyers and sellers. Kapas futures posted
decent gains by more than 25%, supported by the factor of demand
outpacing supply. During the first quarter of the year, prices
plunged & touched 800 levels as on March 5, as India had banned
exports briefly for a week. Later government withdrew the ban on
cotton exports imposed but it has suspended issuing new export
registration certificates (RC) until further orders. Taking
advantage of lower level buying & reports from USDA that India's
cotton output was likely to dip by 2 million bales to 32.3 million in
the 2012-13 marketing year (August-July), Kapas prices made a
high of 1184 levels in year 2012. Adding to it, the Cotton Advisory
Board projected a lower closing stock for 2011-12 season ending
September at 25.1 lakh bales as compared to 39.10 in 2010-11.
Later, from the month of September, profit booking coupled with
news of imports from Zimbabwe, Kenya, and South Africa cooled
down the prices. Imports touched 10 lakh bales, compared with the
Cotton Advisory Board's (CAB) projection of 6 lakh bales for the
entire 2011-12 season. By the end of the year the move to hike
registration limits for cotton exports to 30,000 bales from 10,000
bales stabilized the counter above 950 levels.
On the supply side domestic production in 2012-13 season has
been estimated at 334 lakh bales, with a yield of 489 Kg/ hectare.
The balance sheet for the current cotton season 2012-13, is
showing a higher carry forward stock of 34.56 lakh bales, higher by
21% vis--vis 2011-12. As regards, the fundamentals of the
international market, according to International Cotton Advisory
Council, world cotton production of 25.9 million tonnes is running
ahead of use at 23.4 million tonnes.
Cotton Advisory Board has projected a downfall in exports by more
than 45% in season 2012-13. India is losing ground to new
competitors like Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Turkey and
Mexico in apparel exports, as these countries are in advantageous
position on the back off low cost of manufacturing, adapting to new
trends & giving a shorter delivery time. However, Indian exporters
are targeting new destinations like China, Latin America, Norway,
South Korea and Russia. However, the domestic consumption is
showing a growth of 6.5% which includes mills & non-mills. On
international market, according to latest USDA statistics, imports
by China are down by more than 50%, which will reduce world
Range: Rs. 800-1200
trade this season. China is expected to consume 36.0 million bales,
a decrease of 2.0 million bales (5%) from the preceding year due to
the Government's ongoing high domestic support price.
Days ahead, Kapas futures during the first quarter will possibly
manage to take support above 900 levels. Thereafter, some range
bound movements are likely to be seen due to slow economic
growth with reduce consumer demand for textile products. Later
during the year, it is expected that from the month of August prices
are likely to rise towards 1150 levels, with the onset of festivals &
demand for new clothing's.
Cotton Balance Sheet (India)
Item 2012-13 (P)* 2011-12
Supply
Opening stock 28.56 45.77
Crop size 334.00 353.00
Imports 12.00 12.00
Total Availability 374.56 410.77
Demand
Mill Consumption 230.00 217.68
Small-Mill consumption 20.00 21.63
Non-Mill Consumption 20.00 14.09
Total Consumption 270.00 253.4
Exports 70.00 128.81
Total Disappearance 340.00 382.21
Carry Forward 34.56 28.56
Source: Cotton Corporation of India
* As estimated by CAB in its meeting held on 04-10-12
** Based on verified figure.
P-Provisional
(Quantity in lakh bales of 170 kgs each )
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

48
Kapas Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.95
0.99
1.03
0.98
1.01
0.98
1.00
0.99
0.97
1.01
1.01
1.06
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
900.00
950.00
1000.00
1050.00
1100.00
1150.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Chana
Annual Commentary
Annual Outlook
A bullish sentiment prevailed around Chana futures from 3020
levels, throughout the year supported by mis-match between
demand-supply. The counter gained by more than 23%, backed by
estimates of lower production & rise in consumption, which had
always kept buyers attracted on the national bourse & on the spot
markets. Government of India made effort to boost the production
of pulses & raised the MSP for Chana by 33% or Rs.700/ qtl to
Rs.2800/ qtl. According the fourth advance estimates released by
the Agriculture ministry, Chana output projection for 2011-12 had
been revised upward to 75.8 lakh tonnes from 74 lakh tonnes
estimated earlier, still 10% lower than 82.2 lakh tonnes produced in
2010-11. In a view to meet the demand from various consumer
segments, India imported around 3.36 million tonnes of pulses
during 2011-12, mostly from Myanmar, Australia and Canada.
However, with the onset of rabi season, more farmers were seen
getting interested getting in this crop for cultivation. Factors like
profit booking & millers staying away from buying at higher levels,
made the prices fall to 3970 levels from a high of 5000 levels
witnessed during the month of October.
This vital commodity is expected to give lucrative return in 2013
too. Tracking the demand-supply scenario, according to National
Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), production of
Kharif pulses is expected to be around 15% less than last year at
5.26 MT and Rabi pulses output of 11.5 MT. The total pulses
production in 2012-13 would be 17 MT, i.e. lower by 2MT as
compared to the last year. As per the Assocham estimates India's
pulses demand might go up to 21.42 MT in 2013-14. Now to fill this
gap India's dependence on import of pulses is expected to rise in the
2012-13, due to lower production of pulses, taking advantage of
higher production of exporting nations. In a move to increase
imports, government has raised the subsidy on imported pulses to
Rs.20/ kg from the earlier Rs.10/ kg.
On the international platform, according to Agriculture and Agri-
Food Canada (AAFC), suggests that production of chickpeas in
Canada is estimated to have risen by 15% to 105 thousand tonnes in
Range: Rs. 3200-4800
2012-13. Supply is forecasted to be higher than last year and, as a
result, exports are expected to rise to 50 thousand tonnes as
compared to 36 thousand tonnes in 2011-12. As per the projections
given by USDA, in MY 2012/ 2013, Burma's bean and pulse
production is estimated to be higher due to an increase in
production area, supported by improvement in weather conditions.
On the other hand, in order to improve the domestic availability
scenario, government has undertaken various other measures to
escalate the productivity of pulses. The minimum support price
(MSP) of Chana has been increased to Rs 3,200/ qtl for the 2013-14
marketing year a rise of about 14% as compared to 2012-13. In
2012-13, the MSP for Chana and Masur stood at Rs 2,800 a quintal
each. In another move, the prohibition on export of pulses was
extended till March 2013.
In days to come, market participants would be keeping a watch on
the area under cultivation. The harvest of these crops will be
undertaken during March & April. Days ahead, Chana futures are
likely to take support above 3300 levels. As per the seasonality, the
counter may show steady pace of gains from the month of May till
October, with the onset of festivals & seasonal demand during
marriage seasons. Lower level buying & increasing consumption
pattern may lend support to the counter. In long term the counter
may witness 4700-4800 levels.
Chana Futures Seasonal Index V/ s
Monthly Closing Price 2012
0.95
0.92
0.93 0.94
0.95
0.99
1.05
1.03
1.04
1.10
1.06
1.05
3000.00
3200.00
3400.00
3600.00
3800.00
4000.00
4200.00
4400.00
4600.00
4800.00
5000.00
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Seasonal Index Monthly closing price 2012
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

49
Source: Reuters & SMC Research
Crop Calender
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China
EU
Canada
India
Global Mustard Seed Crop Calendar
Sowing
Growth stage
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
USA
Brazil
Argentina
China
India
Global Soybean Crop Calendar
Sowing
Growth stage
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Australia
Canada
Turkey
Pakistan
Global Chana (Gram) Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China
India
U.S
Australia
Global Wheat Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Syria
Turkey
Global Jeera Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Indian States Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AndhraPradesh
MadhyaPradesh
Chilli Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Indian States Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Maharashtra Adsali (June-August)
Pre Monsoon (Oct November)
Suru (January February)
Uttar Pradesh
Sugarcane Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Vietnam
Sri Lanka
Malaysia
Indonesia
Brazil
Global Pepper Harvesting Calendar
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China
U.S
India
Pakistan
Brazil NorthEast
Brazil centre
Uzbekistan
Global Cotton Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Growth stage
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Guar Crop Calendar
Sowing
Growth stage
Harvesting
Indian States Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AndhraPradesh
Turmeric Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Mentha Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Arrival
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Cardamom Crop Calendar
Harvesting
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

50
Crop Calender
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China
EU
Canada
India
Global Mustard Seed Crop Calendar
Sowing
Growth stage
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
USA
Brazil
Argentina
China
India
Global Soybean Crop Calendar
Sowing
Growth stage
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Australia
Canada
Turkey
Pakistan
Global Chana (Gram) Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China
India
U.S
Australia
Global Wheat Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Syria
Turkey
Global Jeera Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Indian States Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AndhraPradesh
MadhyaPradesh
Chilli Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Indian States Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Maharashtra Adsali (June-August)
Pre Monsoon (Oct November)
Suru (January February)
Uttar Pradesh
Sugarcane Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Vietnam
Sri Lanka
Malaysia
Indonesia
Brazil
Global Pepper Harvesting Calendar
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China
U.S
India
Pakistan
Brazil NorthEast
Brazil centre
Uzbekistan
Global Cotton Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Growth stage
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Guar Crop Calendar
Sowing
Growth stage
Harvesting
Indian States Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AndhraPradesh
Turmeric Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Mentha Crop Calendar
Sowing
Harvesting
Arrival
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Cardamom Crop Calendar
Harvesting
COMMODITY OUTLOOK 2013

50