The weekly briefing | 9 December 2013

Political and security risk updates

Africa: Frenc deployment to !entral "frican #epublic reac es full strengt as undreds are killed in $iolence% Americas: "rgentine pro$ince rocked by police strikes and lootings as federal go$ernment deploys gendarmeries to most troubled areas% Asia and Pacific: &oe Biden cautiously reassures 'out (orea of )' commitment to "sia*Pacific% Europe: Protests continue in )kraine as go$ernment sur$i$es a no*confidence $ote% Middle East: +ebanese city of ,ripoli placed under military control% Polar regions: !anada submits "rctic territorial claims%

"frica
French deployment to Central African epublic reaches full strength as hundreds are killed in !iolence Frenc forces a$e reac ed t eir full le$el of deployment in t e !entral "frican #epublic- .it 1-200 troops no. in t e country% /iolence continues despite Frenc efforts to contain t e situation- .it at least 300 people killed o$er recent days% 'eleka rebels attacked a ospital in t e capital Bangui late on 0 December% On 1 December- interim aut orities ordered all forces- e2cept peacekeepers and t e presidential guard- off t e streets in an effort to control t e situation% Frenc forces a$e been deployed particularly in t e nort and .est to secure roads and remote areas- . ere $iolence and looting bet.een ri$al communities as left t e country in c aos% , e latest round of $iolence began on 3 December- . en a ! ristian militia raided 4uslim neig bour oods% , is follo.ed mont s of fig ting and reprisals bet.een ! ristians and 4uslims after t e 4uslim 'eleka rebels sei5ed po.er in 4arc t is year% 6nterim President 4ic el D7otodia is struggling to control t e situationdescribed by some as amounting to genocide- partly because t e 'eleka are a loose grouping- including fig ters from neig bouring 'udan and ! ad% France as inter$ened follo.ing t e )8 'ecurity !ouncil9s aut orisation to use force to assist t e "frican peacekeepers already in t e country% Despite general potential in terms of mining and agriculture- t e unresol$ed instability continues to keep t e !entral "frican #epublic dependent on foreign aid- constraining t e possibilities for de$elopment% , e political c aos t at as engulfed t e country o$er t e past mont s also increases regional concerns- particularly considering t e fragile state of peace negotiations in t e Democratic #epublic of !ongo% Open Briefing | 1

For France- t e second military inter$ention in a former colony t is year ig lig ts t e country9s increasing in$ol$ement on t e "frican continent% On 0 December- Frenc President Francois :ollande addressed 33 representati$es of "frican countries as a Frenc *"frican summit on peace and security opened in Parisstressing Frenc determination to confront t e risks in t e 'a el 5one in particular% ;it t e continuing deterioration of t e security situation in t e !entral "frica #epublic- and t e $iolations of uman rig ts resulting in an estimated 00-000 refugees and <000-000 internally displaced persons- it is planned t at t e "frican*led 6nternational 'upport 4ission in t e country =46'!">- . ic t e currently deployed Frenc troops are supporting- .ill be increased to a total strengt of 0-000 troops and 1-100 police personnel% , e 'ecurity !ouncil also addressed t e idea of a sanctions regime against t e !entral "frican #epublict oug t is .as reser$ed as a future measure% #ther de!elopments The death of former $outh African president %elson Mandela triggered international reaction after being announced by current President &acob 'uma on ( )ecember* ,ributes from around t e .orld stressed 4andela9s commitment to o$ercome t e country9s apart eid regime of racial segregation and is reconciliation of a di$ided country% An American teacher was shot dead in +ibya,s eastern city -engha.i on ( )ecember/ fuelling concerns about rising insecurity in t e post*re$olutionary country% ; ile no group as claimed responsibility for t e attack yet- risk remains ig - .it many foreign go$ernments a$ing .arned against tra$elling to Beng a5i since t e 2012 attack on t e )' consulate% Beng a5i as seen almost daily assassinations and bombings- often targeting army and police forces as militias and e2tremist groups continue to fig t for po.er after t e toppling of t e 4uammar ?addafi regime in 2011% -oko 0aram has attacked a %igerian airbase/ following army operations against the rebel group* , e attack on 2 December in 4aiduguri- nort eastern 8igeria- destroyed t.o elicopters and sa. clas es in se$eral areas of t e city- leading to a curfe. being imposed and t e ci$ilian airport closing% ;it a recent focus on rural areas- t e latest attack in Boko :aram9s founding city- deemed relati$ely safe after t e military ad confronted t e group t ere- points to rene.ed intensification of t e situation% , e state of emergency in t e regions most affected by clas es .it Boko :aram continues% #n the radar 1orld leaders are to attend the memorial ser!ice for %elson Mandela in 'out "frica on 10 December- a ead of a state funeral% 2n!estigations are continuing into a mass gra!e disco!ered in Mali/ belie$ed to contain bodies of a group of missing soldiers% Measures under the +iberia sanctions regime are set to e3pire on 1" )ecember/ .it t e )nited 8ations e2pected to rene. at least some of t e sanctions% Concern among foreign business owners in 'imbabwe is increasing as they mo!e to indigenise their businesses to a$oid go$ernment penalties for operating in sectors to be reser$ed for nationals% 4% $ecretary56eneral -an 7i5Moon will stress drug trafficking as a particular issue of concern as e presents t e outcomes of is $isits to t e 'a el region to officials- including representati$e of t e ;orld Bank- on 12 December% Open Briefing | "

"mericas
%ationwide police strikes ha!e led to a wa!e of lootings across ma9or cities in Argentina 4ore t an a t ousand s ops .ere looted in t e pro$ince of !@rdoba on < December follo.ing local police protests for rise in pay% "n estimated 130 people .ere in7ured .it 30 arrests during t e pillages t at affected t e second most populous pro$ince of "rgentina% "s t e ne.s spread- police strikes e2tended to t e 'an &uan- !atamarca- 8euAuBn- #Co 8egro and 'anta Fe pro$inces% , e go$ernor of !@rdoba Pro$ince&osB 4anuel de la 'ota- .as on an official $isit to !olombia and Panama at t e time% "s suc - it .as only upon is return t e follo.ing day t at an announced 30D increase in police .ages put an end to t e strikes and lootings% 4any a$e criticised t e federal go$ernment for its .eak reaction to t e security crisis in !ordoba% 6ndeedit .as only after t e go$ernor sealed a deal .it police forces t at t e go$ernment sent a gendarmerie garrison in reinforcement% De la 'ota is a long*standing ri$al to President !ristina Fernande5 de (irc ner .it in t e Peronist coalition% 8otably- in 2009 e supported farmers in t eir protests against a soybean e2port ta2 proposed by t e Fernande5 go$ernment% , e federal go$ernment fears t at t e unrest could affect ot er main cities- especially t e capital- Buenos "ires% 6n response to t e crisis- t e go$ernment as deployed o$er 10-000 gendarmeries to t e most troubled pro$inces- .it 2-300 gendarmeries sent to 'anta Fe and a furt er 2-000 to !ordoba% 6n additiona special operational unit .as created for t e Buenos "ires pro$ince% 'ome instances of lootings a$e already occurred in ?rand Bourg and ?le. in Buenos "ires% 4ean. ile- in !ordoba t e situation as remained calm since t e announced local police pay rise% #ther de!elopments 2n Me3ico/ petty criminals ha!e been captured following the theft of a !ehicle transporting medical e:uipment/ including a radioacti!e element* , e truck from t e ,i7uana ospital contained cobalt*00. ic is used in c emot erapy% , e isotope could be used in t e construction of a dirty bomb- t oug 4e2ican officials said t e t ie$es probably did not kno. . at t ey .ere taking and .ere most likely targeting t e truck% 6t is still unsure . at t e e2act intentions of t e t ie$es .ere and if t ey acted on be alf of a drug cartel% Colombian small5scale farmers ha!e returned to the streets to protest against farm policies* 'e$eral t ousand !olombian famers took to t e streets of Bogota on < December to demand t at t e go$ernment acts in accordance .it t e agreements made in 'eptember% , e 'eptember agreements pro$ided a solution to end t.o mont s of $iolent protests in t e rural areas% !olombia9s "griculture 4inister #uben Dario +i5arralde as denied t at t e state as failed to comply .it t e settlement% The 0onduras $upreme Electoral Tribunal ;T$E< is to re5count the !otes in the "= %o!ember presidential election* , e ,'E as agreed to recount t e $otes follo.ing allegations of fraud made by +ibre Party candidate Fiomara !astro% , e official count ga$e t e 8ational Party candidate &uan Orlando :ernGnde5 eig t points o$er is ri$al !astro% , e president of t e ,'E stressed t at !astro s ould publicly admit er defeat if t e re*count confirms t e original results%

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#n the radar )emonstrations in the 0aitian capital Port5au5Prince against President Michel Martelly and the )ominican epublic are e3pected to continue* )isruption is e3pected on > )ecember in Cochabamba/ -oli!ia/ due to a 2<* our strike by public transport staff% Potential for disrupti!e protests in &u9uy pro!ince/ Argentina/ by unionised public sector personnel if t e aut orities fail to meet t eir demands during a meeting on 9 December%

"sia and Pacific

&oe -iden cautiously reassures $outh 7orea of 4$ commitment to Asia5Pacific )' /ice*President &oe Biden as $isited ! ina- &apan and 'out (orea on a t ree*day tour% :e stressed )' concern o$er ! ina9s ne.ly declared East ! ina 'ea air defence 5one% 6n talks .it 'out (orean President Park ?eun* ye and at a speec at 'eoulHs Ionsei )ni$ersity on 0 December- Biden reiterated )' opposition to Bei7ingHs air defence identification 5one% Biden as publicly stressed t at t e )' pi$ot and commitment to "sia .ill not be derailed by suc measures% Pri$ately to ! inese President Fi &inping- o.e$er- Biden .as keen to promote a friendly and cooperati$e relations ip% ! ina outlined an identification 5one on t e 23 8o$ember- stating t at all aircraft must file flig t plans or face Jemergency defensi$e measuresH% , e 5one includes t e disputed 'enkakuKDiaoyu islands- . ic are claimed by bot ! ina and &apan but currently controlled by &apan% , e )nited 'tates- 'out (orea and &apan see t is as a unilateral escalation by ! ina and a$e refused to back do.n% 8umerous commercial and military aircraft a$e defied t e ! inese order- including t.o )' B*32 bombers on 21 8o$ember t at ! ina scrambled fig ter 7ets in response to% Biden as made clear- bot publicly in &apan and 'out (orea and pri$ately to t e ! inese president- t at t e )nited 'tates .ill not tolerate ! inese aggression% :is $isit to Bei7ing- o.e$er- .as o$er. elmingly of a friendly note% Biden called for a JcandidH relations ip .it ! inaHs top political leaders and is decision to not publicly condemn ! ina . ile in Bei7ing .as praised by ! inese media% )' strategy in t e region is t erefore apparentL a commitment to t e "sia*Pacific .it out upsetting ! ina% #ther de!elopments 4$ citi.en and !eteran Merrill %ewman was released by %orth 7orea on ? )ecember on @humanitarian groundsA* , is is after e JconfessedH and apologised for crimes in t e 1930*33 (orean ;ar% Pyongyang claims t at 8e.man confessed to espionage- sub$ersion and t e killing of 8ort (orean soldiers and ci$ilians during t e .ar% 8e.manHs release came ours before t e )' $ice*president .as due to $isit t e demilitarised 5one t at separates 8ort and 'out (orea% The political standoff in -angkok was temporarily halted to celebrate the birthday of 7ing -humibol Adulyade9 on ( )ecember* "nti*go$ernment protests a$e continued t eir demands t at Prime 4inister Iingluck ' ina.atra step do.n to be replaced by a JPeople9s !ouncilH% , ey allege Iingluck9s go$ernment is controlled by er brot er- t e ousted former prime minister , aksin ' ina.atra% On 2 DecemberIingluck ruled out er resignation as impossible on t e grounds t at it is unla.ful and unconstitutional% :o.e$er- Iingluck as recently claimed s e is prepared call a national election if t e opposition agree%

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$outh 7orean media has said that %orth 7orea is facing the most serious political defection in 1( years from the man who managed funds for the recently purged uncle of %orth 7orean dictator 7im &ong5un* , e media reports t at t e defector is being protected by 'out (orean officials at a secret location in ! ina and seeks asylum in 'out (orea% , e defector managed funds for &ang 'ong*t aek. ose marriage to (imHs aunt made im one of 8ort (oreaHs most po.erful figures until e .as e2pelled from t e go$ernment for a string of alleged crimes and leading a Jdissolute and depra$ed lifeH% Due to t e defectorHs connection to t is pri$ileged but recently disgraced man- 'out (orean media a$e speculated e per aps olds many secrets about t e elusi$e .orkings of t e :ermit (ingdom% #n the radar &apan and the Association of $outheast Asian %ations will call for freedom of airspace in a communiAuB at a ,okyo summit t is .eek% The Malaysian Chinese Association/ which forms a significant part of the opposition coalition/ will elect a new leadership through party polls* Further disruption is e3pected across -angladesh during t e ongoing nation.ide 12* our blockade of roads- rail tracks and .ater.ays% A planned rally by the opposition -haratiya &anata Party on 1( )ecember in )ehradun/ 2ndia/ is e2pected to cause considerable disruption and eig tened security measures%

Europe
Protests continue in 4kraine as go!ernment sur!i!es a no5confidence !ote Pro*Europe protesters a$e continued t eir demonstrations against t e )krainian go$ernmentHs recent decision not to sign an association agreement .it t e European )nion% , e demonstrators are occupying (ie$Hs 6ndependence 'Auare and since 2 December t ey a$e also occupied a number of go$ernment buildings% , e number of protesters in t e capital as increased since police forcibly e2pelled protesters from t e sAuare on 1 December% Political opposition groups a$e also 7oined forces to step*up pro*Europe protests and t ree former presidents of )kraine- +eonid (ra$c uk- +eonid (uc ma and /iktor Ius c enkoa$e gi$en t eir support to t e protesters and .arned tension could spin into an uncontainable crisis% On 3 December- Prime 4inister 4ykola "5aro$Hs go$ernment sur$i$ed a no*confidence $ote in parliament% "5aro$ ad apologi5ed for t e action of t e police and promised personnel c anges in t e go$ernment before t e no*confidence and t e ead of t e police as ordered officers to not use force against peaceful protesters% Bot go$ernment officials and opposition figures a$e confirmed t at t ey are open to negotiations% :o.e$er- t e prime minister as .arned t at mass rallies must obey t e la. and in particular- targeted .estern )kraine- t e centre of t e protest mo$ement- and .arned t at it could face a cut off of federal funding%

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'e$eral international organisations and ;estern countries a$e condemned t e $iolence used by t e police on t e protesters on 1 December% On 3 December- 8",O foreign ministers $oiced t eir disappro$al of t e $iolence and urged t e go$ernment and opposition to open negotiations% :o.e$er- an attempt by t e :ead of t e !ouncil of Europe- , orb7orn &agland- on < December to arbitrate a meeting bet.een go$ernment officials and opposition members to persuade t em to enter into dialogue .as unsuccessful% #ussia- on t e ot er and- as $ocalised its disappro$al of ;estern inter$ention and t e #ussian foreign minister- 'ergey +a$ro$- criticised 8",OHs statement- arguing t at it .as a domestic issue and e urged outsiders not to interfere% O$er t e last .eek- #ussia as also soug t to strengt en its ties .it )kraine and on < December- Prime 4inister Dmitri 4ed$ede$ announced t e #ussian go$ernmentHs plans to e2pand economic cooperation bet.een t e t.o countries in a number of sectors% Furt ermore- President /ladimir Putin met )krainian President /iktor Ianuko$yc on 0 December in 'oc i =#ussia> in an unannounced meeting% , e media as speculated t at )kraine may 7oin t e #ussian*led !ustoms )nion and in return .ould recei$e reduced energy prices% :o.e$er- t e direction t at )kraine may take remains in limbo as according to media reports- on 2 December Ianuko$yc called t e European !ommission president- &ose 4anuel Barroso- to seek a rene.al of negotiations for an association agreement .it t e E)% #ther de!elopments Finnish police arrested "B protesters following a riot in the southern city of Tampere on ? )ecember% , e country ad been celebrating 6ndependence Day . en 200 protesters demonstrated outside t e ,ampere !ity :all . ere t e presidential ball .as being eld% " small group of protesters smas ed .indo.s and attacked police $e icles .it bottles% "not er group of protesters set off firecrackers around t e ,ampere rail.ay station and attempted to set fire to a Finnis flag% , e police dispersed t e cro.d .it tear gas and trunc eons% #n ? )ecember/ the European 4nionAs 9ustice commissioner/ Ci!iane eding/ re9ected calls from 6ermany and the 4nited 7ingdom for the E4 to tackle the issue of benefit tourism* , e )nited (ingdom and more recently ?ermany a$e argued t at t e E) offices a$e failed to address t eir concerns o$er .elfare tourism before t e opening of borders to Bulgarian and #omanian citi5ens at t e end of 2013% #eding contended t at freedom of mo$ement bet.een t e states s ould not be curbed and t at it .as up to t e E) members to foolproof t eir la.s to pre$ent abuse of t eir .elfare systems% , e commissioner also claimed t at t e E) ad already sufficient protection against benefit tourism% 6n &unet e )nited (ingdom- ?ermany- t e 8et erlands and Finland ad asked t e European !ommission to de$elop ne. measures to stop people mo$ing to different countries to use t eir .elfare system% , e issue of .elfare tourism is likely to flare up again in t e run*up to European Parliamentary elections in 4ay 201<%

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#n 8 )ecember/ omanian President Traian -asescu refused to endorse a memorandum as he opposed some of the measures in the latest policy package/ proposed in negotiations .it t e 6nternational 4onetary Fund- t e European !ommission and t e ;orld Bank% Basescu reportedly did not appro$e in t e increase in t e e2cise of fuels- a measure . ic t e president belie$es .ould reduce t e go$ernmentHs c ances to re*launc t e #omanian economy% 6n 'eptember- t e 64F appro$ed a M1%9N billion t.o year precautionary credit line O t e t ird package in four years O and in 8o$ember- t e #omanian go$ernment agreed to implement a ne. e2cise of M1 per litre on fuel prices to raise money for a fund to finance road.ork% , e 64FHs e2ecuti$e board is likely to postpone anot er meeting to discuss t e countryHs loan programme until 4arc 201<% #n the radar The +at!ian President/ Andris -Er.iFG/ is likely to nominate its ne3t Prime Minister this week* Planned opposition rallies are e3pected on 1( )ecember in -aku/ A.erbai9an/ in protest against t e go$ernment9s decision to raise petrol prices% -lack $ea Cooperation meeting in Here!an/ Armenia/ on 1" )ecember* , e ,urkis foreign minister is reportedly oping to normalise ,urkeyHs strained relations .it "rmenia during t e $isit% Anni!ersary of the 1>?> right5wing terror attack in Milan/ 2taly/ on 1" )ecember/ . ic killed 11 and in7ured NN%

4iddle East
+ebanese city of Tripoli placed under military control On 2 December- t e +ebanese go$ernment took t e decision to place t e countryHs second city- ,ripoliunder military control% Prime 4inister 8a7ib 4ukati announced t at ,ripoli .ould remain under control of t e army for a period of si2 mont s in an effort to suppress t e sectarian $iolence t at as escalated since t e 'yrian ci$il .ar began in 2011% , e most recent episode of $iolence resulted in t e deat s of at least 11 people o$er t ree days- 30 8o$ember to 2 December% 'ectarian clas es in ,ripoli a$e become more freAuent and more $iolent t roug out 2013% , e nort ern city is less t an 30 kilometres from t e 'yrian border and t e increase in $iolence is a direct spill*o$er from t e 'yrian ci$il .ar- .it $iolence concentrated .it in t e t.o opposing neig bour oods of Bab al* ,abbane and &abal 4o sen% &abal 4o sen is an "la.ite minority neig bour ood .it in 'unni ma7ority ,ripoli and +ebanonP t e neig bouring district of Bab al*,abbane is a 'unni community% , e t.o neig bour oods a$e been in$ol$ed in sporadic conflict since t e 19N0s but t e 'yrian ci$il .ar as pro$oked old di$isions o$er t e past t.o and a alf years% 'yriaHs president- Bas ar al*"ssad- and is "la.ite go$ernment a$e been locked in battle .it 'unni minority opposition% 'ince being deployed- t e army announced t at it ad detained 21 fig ters in ,ripoli on 3 December% 6t is likely t at t e army .ill be able to reduce t e number of $iolent confrontations bet.een t e t.o communities but tensions .ill remain in ,ripoli and t e rest of +ebanon% , e sectarian incidents of $iolence in ,ripoli reflect t e geopolitical struggle in t e region- .it et nic communities ea$ily influenced by .ider regional politics% " regional struggle for influence bet.een 'unni 'audi*"rabia and ' iHite 6ran as elped fuel conflict along et nic lines in 6raA- 'yria- and no.- +ebanon% Open Briefing | D

#ther de!elopments #n 8 )ecember/ Transparency 2nternational/ a leading anti5corruption %6#/ released its annual Corruption Perception 2nde3 for "I18/ with war5torn Middle Eastern countries percei!ed as among the most corrupt* , e purpose of t e inde2 is to raise a.areness about t e abuse of po.er- bribery- a lack of transparency and accountability in public institutions% Of 111 ranked countries- "fg anistan =113>- 6raA =111>- 'yria =10N>- and Iemen =101> all scored less t at 20 on a scale of 0*100- . ere 0 means a country is percei$ed as ig ly corrupt and 100 means a country is percei$ed as $ery clean% , e percei$ed le$el of corruption in 6raA and 'yria as increased since t e 2012 report as instability- ci$il .ar and t e presence of armed groups reduce t e political aut ority and functionality of t e go$ernment% , e rule of la. and accountability is also failing to be enforced in countries .it .eak institutions% 4% inspectors in!estigating $yrian war crimes ha!e implicated $yrian go!ernment officials/ including President -ashar al5Assad/ in crimes against humanity* , e )8 ig commissioner for uman rig ts8a$i Pillay- made t e comment in ?ene$a on 2 December- t oug )8 in$estigators s ould refrain from implicating indi$iduals and suspects until entering t e 7udicial process% , e remark is unlikely to affect t e position of t e go$ernment during t e ci$il .ar but may .eaken t e position of t e go$ernment at t e sc eduled ?ene$a 66 peace talks% , e opposition 'yrian 8ational !oalition .ill not attend t e talks if "ssad .ill a$e any role in a transitional go$ernment% #n ( )ecember/ a suicide bomber detonated a !ehicle packed with e3plosi!es as gunmen from another !ehicle opened fire at the Hemeni defence ministry in $anaa* , is is t e .orst militant attack in Iemen for o$er 1N mont s- lea$ing 32 people dead and a furt er 101 .ounded% "lt oug no group as claimed responsibility- attacks on go$ernment targets by al*Qaeda in t e "rabian Peninsula ="Q"B> a$e been common in recent years% , e )nited 'tates belie$es t at "Q"B are t e most acti$e branc of al* Qaeda in t e region% , e interim Iemeni go$ernment is struggling to administer political aut ority as it contends .it a separatist mo$ement in t e sout - :out i insurgency in t e nort and al*Qaeda*linked militants% , e risk of furt er attacks on go$ernment targets remains ig % #n the radar #fficials from 2ran/ the 4nited $tates/ France/ 6ermany/ -ritain/ China and ussia are scheduled to meet >51I )ecember to discuss t e details of implementing t e deal bet.een 6ran and t e P3R1 t at .as agreed last .eek% More !iolence is e3pected in $yria as go!ernment troops continue their offensi!e against opposition fighters* 0amas has cancelled the 1= )ecember anni!ersary rally in 6a.a/ citing financial difficulties% )emonstrations possible following the killing of protesters during a rally in Hukseko!a/ Turkey*

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Polar regions
Canada submits Arctic territorial claims , e !anadian go$ernment officially submitted its claims to territory in t e "rctic to t e )8 !ommission on t e +imits of t e !ontinental ' elf on 0 December% "ccording to international la.- states .is ing to make e2tended claims on maritime territory may do so pro$ided t at it can be s o.n t at suc claims are based on t e positions of t eir continental s el$es% , e claims are- o.e$er- also largely based on political calculationsP !anadian Prime 4inister 'tep en :arper is reported to a$e re7ected t e original proposal submitted to is office earlier t is .eek and to a$e demanded t at t e 8ort Pole be included in t e final draft% Furt ermore t e final draft .as filed .it t e )8 as a Jpreliminary submissionH- meaning t at !anada reser$es t e rig t to e2tend its claims in t e future% )ntil :arperHs 11t our inter$ention- t ere .ere no significant o$erlaps e2pected .it t e territorial

claims of Denmark =based on t e e2tension of t e continental s elf of its territories in ?reenland> and #ussia% , e former filed its most recent claim to t e )8 in 8o$ember and is e2pected to finalise its declarations in 201<- and t e latter submitted an e2tensi$e claim to large s.at es of t e "rctic in 2002% #ussiaHs 2002 claim .as re7ected by t e )8 on t e basis of not including sufficient e$idence for its assertions- yet gi$en t e a$o.ed importance of control o$er t e "rctic for 4osco.- subseAuent claims are e2pected to be no less ambitious% , e most important point of contention ere is t e +omonoso$ #idgean under.ater ridge of continental crust . ic spans 1-N00 kilometres from t e 8e. 'iberian 6slands o$er t e central part of t e ocean to Ellesmere 6sland of t e !anadian "rctic "rc ipelago- o$er . ic #ussia!anada and Denmark all assert o.ners ip to $arying e2tents% ; ile t e conflicting claims of t ese "rctic states set t e scene for possible future confrontation- no significant upsets in diplomatic relations are e2pected in t e s ort term% 6t .ill take many years for t e )8 to $erify t e alleged scientific and geological e$idence submitted by !anada and DenmarkP t e latter may a$e to .ait until 2019 for a $erdict% Furt ermore- . ile t e insistence on ma2imising territorial claims is based on a scramble for t e regionHs belie$ed massi$e natural resource .ealt =particularly oil and gas>t e tec nology reAuired for e2tracting suc resources in t e ig "rctic is still a long .ay from de$elopment% )ntil t is tec nology makes resource e2traction economically $iable- t ere is unlikely to be enoug of an incenti$e to pus "rctic states into risky diplomatic or military conflict% #ther de!elopments ussian President Cladimir Putin alleged that MoscowAs recent military build5up in the Arctic is 9ustified by the threat from the 4$ military* , e claim- made during a meeting .it 4osco. la. students- cited t e t reat of )' submarines operating out of t e Barents 'ea to t e nort .est of #ussia% , e )nited 'tates- e asserts- can use t is region to strike 4osco. .it missiles t at can reac t eir target .it in 13*10 minutes% 'ince is return to po.er in 2012- Putin as freAuently used anti*)' discourse to 7ustify is domestic and foreign policy decisions%

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$weden will contribute eight 6ripen fighter 9ets to %AT#A$ esponse Force/ the allianceAs most elite military unit/ from ne3t year* '.edenHs contribution to t e unit is likely to be a response to #ussiaHs recent determination to display its military pro.ess to its nearby European neig bours% 6n 'eptember#ussia and Belarus eld large*scale 7oint military e2ercises en$isaging .ar .it 8",O states under t e name Zapad-2013 =;est*2013>% E$en more t reatening to.ards 'tock olm .ere t e simulated bombing attacks on +it uania- Poland and '.eden- reported by The Moscow Times to a$e been conducted in 8o$ember% %orwegian MP Michael Tet.schner said that $weden is capable of monitoring telephone and computer data since the bulk of %orwegian traffic tra!elling abroad passes through $weden* Documents leaked by t e "merican . istleblo.er Ed.ard 'no.den s o. t at '.eden collaborated .it ot er European po.ers on massi$e co$ert sur$eillance of internet and telep one traffic% J;e .ant to ensure t at traffic bet.een 8or.egian citi5ens does not fall under '.edis super$ision% "lt oug .e a$e common infrastructure- '.eden cannot take liberties t at are in $iolation of 8or.egian la.-H ,et5sc ner said% #n the radar The Alaska Arctic Policy Commission will recon!ene on > )ecember to continue .orking on t eir draft of "laskaHs "rctic Policy- submission of . ic is e2pected on 30 &anuary 201<% 2ncreased security measures e3pected on 11 )ecember in Moscow/ ussia/ on the Anni!ersary of "I1I nationalist riots*

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