Cold drink sales at a Starbucks

Input:
520
590
650

730
810
900

820
900
1000

530
600
650

Annual
Total
2600
2900
3200

1760

2440

2720

1780

8700

Quarter Average

586.667

813.333

906.667

593.333

725

Seasonal Indices

0.809

1.122

1.251

0.818

Year

Spring
1999
2000
2001

Totals

Summer

Fall

Winter

Analysis
Now Deseasonalize the Sales Using Seasonal Indices
Year
1999
2000
2001

Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
642.614
650.717 655.699 647.612
729.119
722.029 719.669 733.146
803.267
802.254 799.632 794.242

Is there a trend in the data?

Year
1999

2000

2001

Let us check the trend with linear regression.

Cumulative
Season Season (x)
Sales (y)
1
1 642.614
2
2 650.717
3
3 655.699
4
4 647.612
1
5 729.119
2
6 722.029
3
7 719.669
4
8 733.146
1
9 803.267
2
10 802.254
3
11 799.632
4
12 794.242
Total

By linear regression equations:

78

sum x^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144

8700

b
a
16.86023 615.4085
Sales=b(Season)+a

You may need to check r^2 to decide on the goodness of the fit.

Let us generate the deseasoned forecasts for 2002

sum y^2
412952.286
423432.891
429940.561
419401.768
531614.980
521325.427
517923.639
537503.156
645237.946
643611.638
639411.900
630819.676

sum x*y
642.614
1301.434
1967.096
2590.449
3645.597
4332.172
5037.684
5865.169
7229.403
8022.541
8795.956
9530.899

650 6353175.870 58961.013

Year
2002

Seasonality indices

Output:

Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
834.592
851.452 868.312 885.172

0.809

1.122

1.251

0.818

Let us generate the seasonalized forecasts for 2002

Year
2002

Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
675.348
955.192 1085.889 724.417