Description

Production increases rapidly at first, as the cheapest and most readily accessible oil is recovered. As the difficulty of extracting the oil increases, it becomes more expensive and less competitive with other fuels. Production slows, levels off, and begins to fall. This can be observed in any sedimentary basin producing oil.
Up to 54 of the 65 largest oil producing countries have passed their peak of production and are now in decline, including the USA in 1970 and 1981, Indonesia in 1997, Australia in 2000, the UK in 1999, Norway in 2001, and Mexico in 2004.
The date for the Peak in global liquid hydrocarbon production can be extended, but only at a global cost, including finding and lifting costs and especially by crude oil price. The nearby Peak projected in 2006 has probably already been extended a few years by the oil price spike of 2005-08 and the accompanying surge in unconventional recovery, heavy oil and bitumen development, and exploration and development. Other extensions will be possible with future price increases.
The energy-intensive processes of E&P exploration activities, the law of diminishing returns, and principles of geology and engineering predict, however, that global oil production will ultimately reach a final Peak, however. All but our oldest citizens will live to see that Peak.