MegaTrends and The World of 2020: at The Intersection of Business and Technical Trends

MegaTrends and the World of 2020
At the intersection of business and technical trends

Charlie Bess, P .E. HP Fellow, Application Business Services Americas Chief Technologist
Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
Drivers of Change
Security
Hacking is free
Government & Society Transportation

Flattening world Pockets of instability
Religion
Expanding Impact
Demographics
Older consumer Urbanization
Business
Security challenged Move bits not atoms Tight economics
Health
New competitors Coopition everywhere Need to Share
Science & Technology

Bandwidth is distance Attention engineering Context is king
Economy
The new normal The Joule as currency
Personalized Healthcare Longer, Healthier life* Chronic is normal
Environment
Measurement driven
Education
Better educated* Distance learning
Work
Human augmented automation Everyone is a contractor Diverse workforce
Food & Agriculture

Water constrained Robotics
* Not all the world may participate
Technical Enablers
A conflict between abundance and scarcity
New Value
Open Source SaaS Licensed SW
Unlimited Applications Unlimited Data
Mobile devices Sensors (audio, video, GPS) Derived data
Unlimited Computing
Cloud Mobile Distributed

Unlimited Connection Limited Attention
4G, 5G Multi-Gigabit networks Social networks

Analytics Automation Security
Scarcity Will Drive New Work Models

Growth in Developing World, Demand for Scarce Resources, Skill Shortages
Work is increasingly a collaborative experience not a place New careers enabled by technology Virtual companies an aggregation of contracted services Multiple jobs / careers, not one job for life Constant learning - continual education and re-training Migration to meet work demands Changing role of IT Department Automation of normal
Technologically the world will be very different
Extrapolated World of 2020
Population
Healthcare Economics
7.675 billion people globally Digital Natives Significant portion of the workforce Cost of human DNA Sequencing <$100 China likely to overtake US GDP $25 Billion
Global Sensor Market Internet
Information Technology
9.6 Billion mobile subscribers
1.1 Billion broadband subscribers

>30 billion Nodes (Internet of things) >300 Exabytes per month of traffic Cyber Security Market : >$120 Billion System memory (DRAM) = 582MB/$ Transistor per $ (average) = 4 Billion Data: 44 time increase over 2009 Magnetic Storage = 2 Terabytes per $
Software: Average car will contain 10 Billion lines of code
New Style of Business (and IT)

Social Media Cloud
Systems of Engagement
New Style of IT
Systems of Action
Systems of Record
Devices
Client / Server
Major Trends Shifting The View of the Future

Enterprise 3.0
Personalization Sustainability
Modeling & Simulation
Explosion at the Edge
Sensing
Why is this happening?

Source: John A. Rogers Source: John A. Rogers
Source: Sensor Wireless
Information from the Internet of Things:

More data than we can imagine, but it's context that's important
Today data scientist use
Geopbyte
Yottabytes to describe the

amount of social metadata that flows across the Internet today In the near future,
Brontobyte
This will be our digital universe tomorrow
10
24
27
10
21
30
Yottabyte
universe today Brontobyte will be theThis is our digital = 250 trillion of DVDs
measurement to describe the type of sensor data that will be generated from the Internet of Exabyte Things 1 EB of data is created on the internet each day. The
10
10
18
10
Zettabyte
1.3 ZB of network traffic by 2016
proposed Square Kilometer Array telescope will generated an EB of data per day
1015
12
Petabyte
The CERN Large Hadron Collider generates 1PB per second
10
Terabyte
109
500TB of new data per day 6 10 are ingested in Facebook databases Megabyte
Gigabyte
Modeling, Simulation & Automation
Need for Speed
Speed of Action Speed of Change
Sense & Respond to Cause & Effect
Translation of data into value

An intelligent end-to-end approach delivers the right information to the right person at the right time Executive Dashboards Enterprise Search Customer Interaction Predictive Analytics Web Engagement
Intelligent End-to-end Approach

Variety Velocity Volume
(Sales)
Social Media
Video
Audio
Email
MGD
Texts
Transactional Data
Word, Excel
Logs
Clickstream Data
Images
Transactional
Operational
Strategic
CRM
Web
(Procurement)
ERP
Supply Chain
(Ops)
HR
Machine Generated Data
Personalization
The New Consumers
Immediate no tolerance for latency Simple a requirement for acceptance Quality expected No failures tolerated Enterprise (trans-Enterprise) integration Personalized necessary & situational Secure/Private you secure, I control Participative be part of the change Mobile no gaps allowed
BYOD is about more than devices Its about the experience
Enterprise 3.0
Deeper Understanding of the Power of the Web

Negative Response Time
Youll need autonomous agents that manage by exception

Todays cloud techniques will be applied to the rest of the business
Today, IT Ops staff can receive dozens of alerts ranging from critical to system spam
Alerts are collected & analyzed real-time changes are made optimizing reliability and the use of resources like energy and bandwidth
The environment isolates critical alerts it cant handle and sends them to individuals who can act on them
Less critical anomalies are batched up and sent to only those who can affect changes
Enterprise 3.0
Enterprise 1.0
Org Structure Operational Flow Structure Governance Source of change Driver for change Organizational theory Collaboration Owners Information attitude Information structure Information organization Information flow
Hierarchy Friction Bureaucracy Rigid IT-driven technology/Lack of user control Top down
Enterprise 2.0
Flat Smooth Agility Flexible User-driven technology Bottom up
Enterprise 3.0
Networked - self assembling Modeled and simulated Predictive, self optimizing Self-organizing Need driven technology Holistic
Centralized
Teams are in one building/one time zone
Distributed
Teams are global
Context-enabled
Services collaborating across borders
Silos and boundaries

Need to know Information systems are structured and dictated Taxonomies Scheduled Complex Closed/proprietary Long time-to-market cycles
Fuzzy boundaries, open borders

Transparency
Dynamic boundaries
Need to share
Information systems are emergent

Folksonomies On demand Simpler Open Short time-to-market cycles
Knowledge systems
Semantics Proactive and fit to purpose Dynamically configured Negotiated automatically Mass customization
Interfaces
Standards
Product cycles
Sustainability
Expectation Regulation Constraining Corporate Responsibility
Futurists tend to describe change like this...
However, Change Feels More Like This
You can plan for the future you want instead of the one youll end up with.
Final Thoughts
The World of Tomorrow will be characterized by
Many factors that enable change are predictable, so plan to take advantage of them. Scarcity affects value Determine how what is abundant can maximize the value of what is scarce The rate of change and transformation is increasing. We need to prepare people to assimilate and take advantage of change. The increasing digitization of society, commerce, personal and professional lives is not a replacement for todays processes and systems, but adds capabilities Social influence is beyond the control of any individual ecosystem but will impact all organizations, so make it work for you.
Charlie Bess +1 469 767-2311 charlie.bess@hp.com Blog: www.hp.com/go/tnbt Twitter: @cebess 2014 President of the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP.org)

MegaTrends and The World of 2020: at The Intersection of Business and Technical Trends

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

MegaTrends and The World of 2020: at The Intersection of Business and Technical Trends

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

MegaTrends and the World of 2020

At the intersection of business and technical trends

Government & Society Transportation

Security challenged Move bits not atoms Tight economics

New competitors Coopition everywhere Need to Share

Science & Technology

Personalized Healthcare Longer, Healthier life* Chronic is normal

Food & Agriculture

* Not all the world may participate

A conflict between abundance and scarcity

Mobile devices Sensors (audio, video, GPS) Derived data

Cloud Mobile Distributed

4G, 5G Multi-Gigabit networks Social networks

Analytics Automation Security

Scarcity Will Drive New Work Models

Technologically the world will be very different

Extrapolated World of 2020

Global Sensor Market Internet

9.6 Billion mobile subscribers

1.1 Billion broadband subscribers

Software: Average car will contain 10 Billion lines of code

New Style of Business (and IT)

Major Trends Shifting The View of the Future

Modeling & Simulation

Explosion at the Edge

Explosion at the Edge

Explosion at the Edge

Why is this happening?

Source: Sensor Wireless

Information from the Internet of Things:

Yottabytes to describe the

Modeling, Simulation & Automation

Need for Speed

Why is this happening?

Speed of Action Speed of Change

Sense & Respond to Cause & Effect

Translation of data into value

Intelligent End-to-end Approach

Machine Generated Data

The New Consumers

Why is this happening?

BYOD is about more than devices Its about the experience

Deeper Understanding of the Power of the Web

Why is this happening?

Youll need autonomous agents that manage by exception

Silos and boundaries

Fuzzy boundaries, open borders

Information systems are emergent

Why is this happening?

Expectation Regulation Constraining Corporate Responsibility

Futurists tend to describe change like this...

However, Change Feels More Like This

You might also like