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Background Brief Cambodia: No Show at Cobra Gold Exercise Carlyle A. Thayer February 12, 2014

[client name deleted] The Thai-US military exercise Cobra Gold began in Thailand today. This year, Cambodia isn't present as an observer. We would appreciate any insights you can offer to the following questions: Q1 - Why do you think Cambodia was not present at this year's exercise? ANSWER: The political situation in both Thailand and Cambodia could be inflamed if Cambodian participation in Exercise Cobra Gold became an issue. Invitations are issued by the co-hosts, Thailand and the United States. It suits both parties, Thailand and Cambodia, to play down the exercise. Q2 - Could it have anything to do with the ruling over Preah Vihear? ANSWER: So far the Preah Vihear decision has remained dormant. The Thai caretaker government is not empowered to begin discussions with Cambodia. Prior to calling the election the Thai side essentially put off discussions about replacing its military forces with a police presence in the land adjacent to Preah Vihear. It suits the interest of both Cambodia and Thailand to maintain the status quo until the domestic situation in both countries is sorted out. Q3 - Is it significant that Cambodia is not attending the event? ANSWER: In order to become a full-time participant in Cobra Gold a country must be an observer first. Cambodia has met that requirement. Cambodia may not be ready to make a contribution but its absence will not materially affect the exercise. More and more countries have joint EX Cobra Gold so Cambodia's non-participation this year is a minor setback. Cambodia can participate next year if invited and if it decided to make a contribution.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: No Show at Cobra Gold Exercise, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 12, 2014. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

2 Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.