THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

TANZANIA METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY

Telegrams:"METEO"DAR ES SALAAM. Tele !"#e: $%% &'( $$ $)*'+'*,Tele.a/: $%% &'( $$ $)*'+0% E,ma2l: me34me3e".g".35
!33 66777.me3e".g".35

MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT

P.O. BO1 0'%* DAR ES SALAAM.

O8r re.: TMA/1622

27th February, 2014

PRESS RELEASE
CLIMATE OUTLOO9 FOR MARCH : MAY; $'<) RAINFALL SEASON This statement gives a review of the performance of the October to ecember !O" #, 201$ short rainfa%% season, the ongoing seasona% rains over centra%, western, southwestern high%an&s, southern region an& southern coast, an& an out%oo' for the (arch to (ay !()(#, 2014 %ong rainfa%% season !(asi'a#* A: SUMMARY uring the October to ecember 201$ short rains ! Vuli), most parts of the country feature& norma% rainfa%%* +owever, some parts of the coasta% an& centra% areas e,perience& be%ow norma% rainfa%%* -enera%%y, the season was characteri.e& by poor tempora% an& spatia% rainfa%% &istribution particu%ar%y over much of bimo&a% areas* uring /anuary an& February, 2014 forecaste& severe weather events such as strong win&s an& heavy rains that resu%te& into %oss of %ife an& properties over few parts of the country were observe&* The spatia% &istribution of the rains in /anuary an& February 2014 was genera%%y goo& over unimo&a% areas* uring the same perio&, bimo&a% areas e,perience& episo&es of off0seasona% rains* The out%oo' for the (arch to (ay, 2014 rainfa%% season in&icates that most parts of the bimo&a% areas !1a'e 2ictoria 3asin, northeastern high%an&s an& northern coast# are %i'e%y to receive norma% to above norma% rains over most parts e,cept for northern coasta% areas where be%ow norma% rains are anticipate&* Ongoing seasona% rains over the unimo&a% areas are %i'e%y to be norma% to above norma%* The principa% contributing c%imate factors to the ()( 2014 seasona% rainfa%% are the wester%y win& anoma%ies over most parts of the country particu%ar%y in the month of (arch an& )pri% 2014 thus enhancing moisture intrusion from 4ongo 3asin* The pre&ominant wester%y win& f%ow as a resu%t of coo%er 5ea 5urface Temperatures con&ition over eastern )t%antic Ocean is %i'e%y to be sustaine& throughout the season* 6arming con&ition off the southern tip of )frica is e,pecte& to suppress rainfa%% over the coasta% areas of the country* B: RE=IE> OF OCTOBER TO DECEMBER $'<0 RAINFALL SEASON AND 1

PROGRESS OF RAINFALL FROM ?ANUARY TO FEBRUARY $'<) uring the October to ecember 201$ short rains ! Vuli), most parts of the country feature& norma% rainfa%%* +owever, some parts of the coasta% an& centra% areas e,perience& be%ow norma% rainfa%%* -enera%%y the season was characteri.e& by poor tempora% an& spatia% rainfa%% &istribution particu%ar%y over much of "ortheastern high%an&s an& northern coast areas !(anyara, )rusha, 7i%iman8aro, ar es sa%aam# an& (usoma over the 1a'e 2ictoria 3asin* (oreover the rains were prece&e& by unusua% %ate onset as pre&icte& over ar es 5a%aam, 7i%iman8aro, )rusha an& (anyara regions* uring "ovember to ecember, 201$ onset an& &istribution of rains over 7igoma, 7atavi, 9u'wa, (beya, :ringa, "8ombe an& 9uvuma were genera%%y goo&* +owever, over centra% areas ! o&oma an& 5ingi&a# the rains starte& %ate an& were be%ow norma% &uring the perio&* uring /anuary an& February, 2014, most of the bimo&a% areas inc%u&ing northern (orogoro, 7i%iman8aro, )rusha, (anyara, ar es 5a%aam, 4oast an& 5hinyanga receive& significant off seasona% rains* The heavy rains associate& with strong win&s an& f%oo&s resu%te& into %oss of %ives an& &estruction of properties an& infrastructure over some areas inc%u&ing 5ame, (wanga, +ai an& 7i%osa &istricts* The recor&e& rainfa%% &uring October to ecember 201$ for some se%ecte& stations with their respective percentages of %ong term means in brac'ets are in&icate& be%ow; BIMODAL AREAS N"r3!er# C"as3 a#@ !2#3erla#@s; (atangatuani recor&e& $<0*1 mm !=1>#, ?emba 1@<*4 mm !@7*<>#, )mani @7$*< mm !110*<>#, /":) 1=4*6 mm !@<*0>#, Aan.ibar $$=*< mm !@$*2># an& (orogoro 1@1*$mm !77*0># of rainfa%%* N"r3!eas3er# !2g!la#@s; (oshi recor&e& 124*6 mm !=<*4>#, )rusha 222*= mm !10$*1>#, 1yamungo 1<@*< mm !<1*=>#, 5ame 1$0*0 mm !7=*6># an& 7:) 12<*$ mm !11=*$># of rainfa%%* LaAe =2B3"r2a Bas2#; (wan.a recor&e& $6@*4 mm !<@*=>#, 3u'oba @01*@ mm !<0*4>#, (usoma 1@4*4 mm !6$*4># an& 5hinyanga 274*7 mm !<$*<># of rainfa%%* UNIMODAL AREAS >es3er# areas; Tabora recor&e& $<4*$ mm !11@*2>#, 7ibon&o $6<*4 mm !<2*@>#, Tumbi $61*= mm !107*@># an& 7igoma 440*$ mm !11$*7># of rainfa%%* Ce#3ral areas; o&oma recor&e& ==*@ mm !@=*4>#, +ombo%o 6=*2 mm !40*7># an& 5ingi&a 1$@*$ mm !6$*<># of rainfa%%* S"83!7es3er# !2g!la#@s; :ringa recor&e& 77*< mm !@$*0>#, (beya 22=*2 mm !=7*@>#, Tu'uyu $=6*7 mm !=7*1>#, 5umbawanga 27$*0 mm !<1*0>#, (ahenge @$6*$ mm !10<*1># an& :geri $4@*4 mm !104*<># of rainfa%%* S"83!er# areas; (twara recor&e& 14<*= mm !62*<>#, "a%ien&e%e 117*= mm !4$*6># 7i%wa @=*6 mm !24*6># an& 5ongea 2<=*2 mm !124*7># of rainfa%%*

NB: It should be noted that: Rainfall amounts below 75% of long term averages are categorized as below normal, 75% to 1 5% as near normal and greater than 1 5% of long term averages are categorized as above normal!

C: CLIMATE SYSTEMS OUTLOO9 This out%oo' is base& on a review of the current an& e,pecte& state of g%oba% c%imate systems an& their %i'e%y impacts on the upcoming (arch to (ay !()(#, 2014 rainfa%% season in the country* 4urrent%y, the 5ea 5urface Temperatures !55Ts# in&icate anoma%ous warming con&ition over the 5outhwestern :n&ian Ocean an& e,pecte& to gra&ua%%y increase throughout the season* (eanwhi%e, near norma% &eve%oping into s%ight%y warm 55Ts con&ition over western :n&ian an& eBuatoria% ?acific Oceans are e,pecte& &uring the season. On the other han&, coo%ing con&ition over eastern )t%antic Ocean are %i'e%y to be sustaine& throughout the season* These con&itions are %i'e%y to favor enhance& wester%y win&s over western an& centra% parts of the country particu%ar%y &uring the months of )pri% to (ay, 2014 thus enhancing moisture inf%ow from the 4ongo 3asin* 4urrent anoma%ous warming con&ition off the southern tip of )frica is e,pecte& to continue &uring (arch to (ay 2014 thus %i'e%y to wea'en the southern high pressure systems* These con&itions suggest the possibi%ity of &iffuse& :nter0Tropica% 4onvergence Aone !:T4A# over the coasta% areas of the country %ea&ing to suppresse& rainfa%%* +owever, towar&s the en& of the season an& beyon&, enhance& easter%y win&s are %i'e%y to inf%uence enhance& occasiona% rains over the coasta% areas* D: &2( MAM $'<) RAINFALL OUTLOO9 L"#g Ra2#.all Seas"# &"asi#a(

The %ong rainfa%% season in the northern sector !bimo&a% areas# of Tan.ania is &ue to commence in the first wee' of (arch, 2014* The &etai%s are as fo%%ows; LaAe =2B3"r2a Cas2#: M7a#5a; Mara; Ge23a; S!2#Da#ga; S2m2D8 a#@ 9agera reg2"#s: 9ains are e,pecte& to start in the first wee' of (arch, 2014 in 7agera an& -eita regions an& gra&ua%%y sprea&ing to (wan.a, (ara, 5hinyanga an& 5imiyu regions in the secon& wee' of (arch* 9ains in these areas are %i'e%y to be above norma% e,cept over eastern parts of (ara where norma% to above norma% rains are e,pecte&*

N"r3!er# B"as3 a#@ !2#3erla#@s !Dar es Salaam; Ta#ga; C"as3; #"r3!er# ar3 ". M"r"g"r" reg2"#s a#@ 2sles ". U#g8Ea a#@ PemCa#: 9ains are e,pecte& to start &uring the secon& an& thir& wee' of (arch, 2014* The Masika rains over much of these areas are %i'e%y to be be%ow norma% an& poor%y &istribute&* +owever, most parts of (orogoro region are %i'e%y to e,perience norma% to above norma% rainfa%%* N"r3!eas3er# !2g!la#@s !7i%iman8aro, )rusha an& (anyara regions#: The onset of rainfa%% is e,pecte& &uring the secon& to thir& wee' of (arch, 2014 an& the rains are %i'e%y to be norma% to above norma% over much of these areas e,cept for some parts of 7i%iman8aro region !5ame &istrict an& surroun&ing areas# where be%ow norma% rains are %i'e%y to occur* &22( Seas"#al Ra2#s &3!e "#g"2#g ra2#.all seas"#( >es3er# areas !7igoma, Tabora an& 7atavi regions#: The ongoing seasona% rains over these areas are e,pecte& to be main%y norma% with poc'ets of above norma% over northeastern parts of Tabora region* These rains are e,pecte& to rece&e &uring the fourth wee' of )pri%, 2014* Ce#3ral areas &5ingi&a an& o&oma regions#: The ongoing seasona% rains are %i'e%y to be norma% to above norma%* These rains are e,pecte& to rece&e &uring the secon& wee' of )pri%, 2014* S"83!er# B"as3al areas &(twara an& 1in&i regions#: The ongoing seasona% rains are %i'e%y to be norma% to above norma% e,cept for northeastern parts of 1in&i where be%ow norma% rains are e,pecte&* 4essation of rains is e,pecte& &uring the thir& wee' of )pri%, 2014* S"83!er# areas &9uvuma#; The ongoing seasona% rains in these areas are %i'e%y to be norma% to above norma%. 4essation of the rains is e,pecte& &uring the thir& wee' of )pri%, 2014. S"83!7es3er# !2g!la#@ areas !(beya, :ringa, "8ombe, 9u'wa an& southern part of (orogoro regions#; The ongoing seasona% rains in most of these areas are %i'e%y to be norma% to above norma% e,cept for "8ombe region where above norma% rains are e,pecte&* These rains are e,pecte& to en& &uring the first wee' of (ay, 2014* NB: It should be noted that heav$ rainfall events are common even in below normal rainfall conditions! %ate cessation is li#el$ over most &arts of unimodal areas! Tanzania Meteorological Agency will continue to monitor developments of weather systems including 'ro&ical ($clones over the southwestern Indian )cean , which could influence the rainfall patterns in the country. Updates will e issued whenever necessary.

F2g8re <: Ra2#.all O83l""A ."r MarB! 3" MaD $'<) Note: The colours in the map indicate the pro a ilities of rainfall in each of the three categories ! a ove!, near!, and elow!normal. The top num er indicates the pro a ility of rainfall occurring in the a ove!normal category" the middle num er is for near!normal and the ottom num er for the elow!normal category. #or e$ample, the deep green covering the %ake Victoria &asin and 'outh! (estern )ighlands shows *+, pro a ility of rainfall occurring in the a ove!normal category" -., pro a ility of rainfall occurring in the near!normal category" and /., pro a ility of rainfall occurring in the elow!normal category.

E: E1PECTED IMPACTS AND AD=ISORY E: E1PECTED IMPACTS AND AD=ISORY Agr2B8l38re a#@ F""@ SeB8r23D 5ufficient soi% moisture is e,pecte& over most areas of the country e,cept a%ong the 4oast, Cngu8a an& ?emba is%es an& few areas of the northeastern high%an&s where soi% moisture &eficit is %i'e%y to occur* )reas over the 1a'e 2ictoria basin !7agera, -eita, (wan.a, 5hinyanga, 5imiyu an& (ara regions# together with (orogoro region, farmers are a&vise& to continue with their norma% agricu%tura% activities* +owever, above norma% rains are %i'e%y to pro&uce e,cessive soi% moisture con&itions which can impe&e crop pro&uction, therefore farmers are encourage& to see' a&vise from e,tension officers in their respective areas* Over the northern coast ! ar es 5a%aam, ?wani an& Tanga regions inc%u&ing Cngu8a an& ?emba is%es# an& north eastern high%an&s !(anyara, )rusha an& 7i%iman8aro regions#, farmers are a&vise& to p%ant &rought to%erant an& ear%y maturing crops* On the other han&, sufficient soi% moisture is e,pecte& over unimo&a% areas !7igoma, Tabora, 9u'wa, 7atavi, o&oma, :ringa, 1in&i, an& (twara together with southern parts of (orogoro region#D farmers are a&vise& to continue with their norma% cropping season activities an& to sa%vage the remaining part of the season* +owever, above norma% rains over some areas !5ingi&a, (beya, "8ombe an& 9uvuma regions#, are %i'e%y to cause e,cessive soi% moisture which can affect crops at maturity an& harvesting therefore farmers are a&vise& to ta'e necessary precautions*

E#ergD a#@ 7a3er :n areas where above norma% rains are e,pecte&, water %eve%s over the %a'es, &ams an& river f%ow &ischarge are e,pecte& to increase &uring (arch to (ay, 2014 rainfa%% season* (oreover, it is a&vise& that water harvesting systems an& storage structures be improve& to stoc' the e,cess water &uring the season* )reas with be%ow norma% rains, water harvesting an& storage techniBues are encourage&* Pas38re a#@ >a3er ."r L2Fes3"BA a#@ 72l@l2.e ?asture an& water avai%abi%ity for %ivestoc' an& wi%&%ife are %i'e%y to be goo& over most areas of the country e,cept a%ong the coasta% areas where be%ow norma% rains are e,pecte&* )reas e,pecte& to receive be%ow norma% rains, pastora%ists an& agro0pastora%ists are a&vise& to harvest an& conserve pasture for use &uring &ry season* +owever, pastora%ists an& agro0pastora%ists are strong%y encourage& to see' more a&vice from %ivestoc' e,tension officers* On the other han&, areas e,pecte& to receive norma% to above norma% rains are %i'e%y to have improve& bio&iversity, p%ant f%owering, honey/wa, pro&uction an& re&uce& anima% migration thus e,pecte& to re&uce human wi%&%ife conf%icts* L"Bal A83!"r232es uring the (arch to (ay 2014, rainfa%% season episo&es of heavy rains are e,pecte& to occur an& 6

may resu%t into &isasters* Therefore, (unicipa%s are a&vise& to ta'e precautions inc%u&ing open up an& c%ear of &rainage systems to avoi& water accumu%ation &ue to surface runoffs so as to re&uce the impacts of heavy rains that may resu%t into f%oo&s* 5ame precautions shou%& be ta'en for )reas e,pecte& to receive norma% an& be%ow norma% rains !coasta% be%t an& some areas of the north eastern high%an&s#, &ue to the fact that there is %i'e%ihoo& of heavy rain fa%% episo&es* Heal3! seB3"r :n areas where above an& be%ow norma% rains are e,pecte&, there is a %i'e%ihoo& of waterborne an& water re%ate& &iseases such as ma%aria, trachoma an& cho%era thus necessary precautions shou%& be ta'en by communities an& the responsib%e authorities* Pla##2#g 5ocio0economic sectors are a&vise& to proper uti%i.e (arch to (ay, 2014 rainfa%% out%oo' in their &ai%y activities an& &uring the imp%ementation of "ationa% eve%opment ?%an in or&er to re&uce ris' that may occur* D2sas3er Ma#ageme#3 isaster management authorities an& other sta'eho%&ers are a&vise& to ta'e necessary measures that wou%& ensure prepare&ness, response, an& mitigation of any negative impacts resu%ting from the e,pecte& weather an& c%imate con&itions* 'he *genc$ strongl$ advices all users including agriculture, food securit$, livestoc#, wildlife, water resources, energ$, health sectors, etc to see# more advice from e+&erts in their res&ective sectors!

r* )gnes 1* 7i8a.i DIRECTOR GENERAL