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Strategic Trends: Introduction
Strategic Trends 
is an independent view of the future produced by the Development,Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), a Directorate General within the UK’s Ministry ofDefence (MOD). It is a source document for the development of UK Defence Policy.This edition of
Strategic Trends 
is benchmarked at December 2006. It is a livedocument and will be updated regularly on our website as new thinking emerges andtrends develop.Articles will be added to the website periodically to cover specific topics in greater detail.Although extensive efforts have been made to verify facts contained in
Strategic Trends 
,readers are cheerfully invited to inform the DCDC of any inconsistencies or inaccuracies.
Conditions of Release
The findings contained in this edition of
Strategic Trends 
do not represent an officialposition of Her Majesty’s Government or the UK MOD. The information is, however,Crown Copyright.
Departmental Direction
Strategic Trends 
is part of the UK MOD Strategic Context Process, from which theDepartment derives guidance about strategic challenges and opportunities, which is usedto shape the UK’s future Defence requirements. MOD direction on the DCDC
Strategic Trends 
programme stresses the requirement for a comprehensive, independentapproach:DCDC’s
Strategic Trends 
Programme should aim to provide a detailed analysis of thefuture strategic context for Defence out to 30 years. This will be an essential input intopolicy development and major outputs include:
•
A historically and theme-based analysis of the future strategic context;
•
Analysis of the key risks and shocks, including an assessment of theirprobability, frequency and magnitude;
•
Identification of the generic Defence and Security implications of this analysis.Building on previous editions of
Strategic Trends 
, the analysis should adopt acomprehensive approach to the key drivers and deduce the salient themes out to 30years. The analysis should also present a ‘stock-take’ of those developments likely to
 
 
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be important at the 15 year point.In compiling the analysis, the
Strategic Trends 
programme should make use of a broadand diverse evidence base. Much of the value of the
Strategic Trends 
programmederives from its independence from MOD decision-making and the aim should be todraw together thought and opinion from as wide a constituency as possible.
Contact Points
Contact details for the Strategic Trends project team are listed at page 89.
 PublishedJanuary 2007and updated regularly on the DCDC Website (see page 89).
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