Résumé Pour Les Décideurs

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014
Mitigation of Climate Change

Working Group III Contribution to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Summary for Policymakers
This Summary for Policymakers was formally approved at the 12th Session
of Working Group III of the IPCC and accepted by the 39th Session of IPCC,
Berlin, Germany, 12 April 2014
SUBJECT TO COPY EDIT
EMBARGOED until 13 April 2014
11.00 Berlin time (09.00 GMT)
EMBARGOED
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llnal urafL Summary for ollcymakers lCC WClll A83
1 of 33
1lLle: Summary for ollcymakers
urafLlng
AuLhors:
CLLmar Ldenhofer (Cermany), 8amn lchsMadruga (Cuba), ?ouba Sokona (Mall),
Shardul Agrawala (lrance), lgor Alexeyevlch 8ashmakov (8ussla), Cabrlel 8lanco
(ArgenLlna), !ohn 8roome (uk), 1homas 8ruckner (Cermany), SLeffen 8runner
(Cermany), Mercedes 8usLamanLe (8razll), Leon Clarke (uSA), lellx CreuLzlg
(Cermany), Shobhakar uhakal (nepal/1halland), navroz k. uubash (lndla), aLrlck
Llckemeler (Cermany), Lllle larahanl (Canada/lran), Manfred llschedlck (Cermany),
Marc lleurbaey (lrance), 8eyer Cerlagh (neLherlands), Luls CmezLcheverrl
(Colombla/AusLrla), ShreekanL CupLa (lndla), Su[aLa CupLa (lndla/hlllpplnes), !ochen
Parnlsch (Cermany), ke[un !lang (Chlna), Susanne kadner (Cermany), Slvan karLha
(uSA), SLephan klasen (Cermany), Charles kolsLad (uSA), volker krey
(AusLrla/Cermany), Poward kunreuLher (uSA), Cswaldo Lucon (8razll), Cmar Masera
(Mexlco), !an Mlnx (Cermany), ?acob MulugeLLa (uk/LLhlopla), AnLhony aLL (uSA),
nl[avalll P. 8avlndranaLh (lndla), keywan 8lahl (AusLrla), !oyashree 8oy (lndla),
8oberLo Schaeffer (8razll), SLeffen Schlmer (Cermany), karen SeLo (uSA), krlsLln
SeyboLh (uSA), 8alph Slms (new Zealand), !lm Skea (uk), eLe SmlLh (uk), Lswaran
SomanaLhan (lndla), 8oberL SLavlns (uSA), ChrlsLoph von SLechow (Cermany), 1homas
SLerner (Sweden), 1alshl Suglyama (!apan), Sangwon Suh (SouLh korea/uSA), kevln
Chlka urama (nlgerla/uk), ulana urgevorsaLz (Pungary), uavld vlcLor (uSA), uadl
Zhou (Chlna), !l Zou (Chlna), 1lmm Zwlckel (Cermany)
urafL
ConLrlbuLlng
AuLhors
Clovannl 8alocchl (uk/lLaly), Pelena Chum (uSA/8razll), !an luglesLvedL (norway),
PelmuL Paberl (AusLrla), Ldgar PerLwlch (norway/AusLrla), Llmar krlegler (Cermany),
!oerl 8ogel[ (SwlLzerland/8elglum), P.Polger 8ogner (AusLrla/Cermany), Mlchlel
Schaeffer (neLherlands), SLeve SmlLh (uSA), ueLlef van vuuren (neLherlands), 8yan
Wlser (uSA)
1
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!"#$ !%&&'() *+( "+,-.)&'/0(1 1
2
3
2+340341 4
3
SM.1 lnLroducLlon ............................................................................................................................. 3 6
SM.2 Approaches Lo cllmaLe change mlLlgaLlon .............................................................................. 3 7
SM.3 1rends ln sLocks and flows of greenhouse gases and Lhelr drlvers ......................................... 3 8
SM.4 MlLlgaLlon paLhways and measures ln Lhe conLexL of susLalnable developmenL ................. 10 9
SM.4.1 LongLerm mlLlgaLlon paLhways ..................................................................................... 10 10
SM.4.2 SecLoral and crosssecLoral mlLlgaLlon paLhways and measures................................... 20 11
SM.4.2.1 CrosssecLoral mlLlgaLlon paLhways and measures ................................................ 20 12
SM.4.2.2 Lnergy supply .......................................................................................................... 23 13
SM.4.2.3 Lnergy enduse secLors ........................................................................................... 24 14
SM.4.2.4 AgrlculLure, loresLry and CLher Land use (AlCLu) ............................................... 27 13
SM.4.2.3 Puman SeLLlemenLs, lnfrasLrucLure and SpaLlal lannlng ...................................... 28 16
SM.3 MlLlgaLlon pollcles and lnsLlLuLlons ....................................................................................... 29 17
SM.3.1 SecLoral and naLlonal pollcles ........................................................................................ 29 18
SM.3.2 lnLernaLlonal cooperaLlon .............................................................................................. 33 19
20
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!"#56 734(+8%.4-+3 1
1he Worklng Croup lll conLrlbuLlon Lo Lhe lCC's llfLh AssessmenL 8eporL (A83) assesses llLeraLure 2
on Lhe sclenLlflc, Lechnologlcal, envlronmenLal, economlc and soclal aspecLs of mlLlgaLlon of cllmaLe 3
change. lL bullds upon Lhe Worklng Croup lll conLrlbuLlon Lo Lhe lCC's lourLh AssessmenL 8eporL 4
(A84), Lhe Speclal 8eporL on 8enewable Lnergy Sources and CllmaLe Change MlLlgaLlon (S88Ln) and 3
prevlous reporLs and lncorporaLes subsequenL new flndlngs and research. 1he reporL also assesses 6
mlLlgaLlon opLlons aL dlfferenL levels of governance and ln dlfferenL economlc secLors, and Lhe 7
socleLal lmpllcaLlons of dlfferenL mlLlgaLlon pollcles, buL does noL recommend any parLlcular opLlon 8
for mlLlgaLlon. 9
1hls Summary for ollcymakers (SM) follows Lhe sLrucLure of Lhe Worklng Croup lll reporL. 1he 10
narraLlve ls supporLed by a serles of hlghllghLed concluslons whlch, Laken LogeLher, provlde a conclse 11
summary. 1he basls for Lhe SM can be found ln Lhe chapLer secLlons of Lhe underlylng reporL and ln 12
Lhe 1echnlcal Summary (1S). 8eferences Lo Lhese are glven ln squared brackeLs. 13
1he degree of cerLalnLy ln flndlngs ln Lhls assessmenL, as ln Lhe reporLs of all Lhree Worklng Croups, 14
ls based on Lhe auLhor Leams' evaluaLlons of underlylng sclenLlflc undersLandlng and ls expressed as 13
a quallLaLlve level of confldence (from very low Lo very hlgh) and, when posslble, probablllsLlcally 16
wlLh a quanLlfled llkellhood (from excepLlonally unllkely Lo vlrLually cerLaln). Confldence ln Lhe 17
valldlLy of a flndlng ls based on Lhe Lype, amounL, quallLy, and conslsLency of evldence (e.g., daLa, 18
mechanlsLlc undersLandlng, Lheory, models, experL [udgmenL) and Lhe degree of agreemenL.
1
19
robablllsLlc esLlmaLes of quanLlfled measures of uncerLalnLy ln a flndlng are based on sLaLlsLlcal 20
analysls of observaLlons or model resulLs, or boLh, and experL [udgmenL.
2
Where approprlaLe, 21
flndlngs are also formulaLed as sLaLemenLs of facL wlLhouL uslng uncerLalnLy quallflers. WlLhln 22
paragraphs of Lhls summary, Lhe confldence, evldence, and agreemenL Lerms glven for a bolded 23
flndlng apply Lo subsequenL sLaLemenLs ln Lhe paragraph, unless addlLlonal Lerms are provlded. 24
!"#59 :;;(+'.<01 4+ .,-&'40 .<'3=0 &-4-='4-+3 23
#-4-='4-+3 -1 ' <%&'3 -340(>034-+3 4+ (08%.0 4<0 1+%(.01 +( 03<'3.0 4<0 1-3/1 +* =(003<+%10 26
='1015 MlLlgaLlon, LogeLher wlLh adapLaLlon Lo cllmaLe change, conLrlbuLes Lo Lhe ob[ecLlve 27
expressed ln ArLlcle 2 of Lhe unlLed naLlons lramework ConvenLlon on CllmaLe Change (unlCCC): 28
!"# $%&'()&# *+,#-&'.# */ &"'0 1*2.#2&'*2 )23 )24 5#%)&#3 %#6)% '20&5$(#2&0 &")& &"# 29
1*2/#5#2-# */ &"# 7)5&'#0 ()4 )3*8& '0 &* )-"'#.#9 '2 )--*53)2-# :'&" &"# 5#%#.)2& 30
85*.'0'*20 */ &"# 1*2.#2&'*29 0&)+'%';)&'*2 */ 65##2"*$0# 6)0 -*2-#2&5)&'*20 '2 &"# 31
)&(*08"#5# )& ) %#.#% &")& :*$%3 85#.#2& 3)26#5*$0 )2&"5*8*6#2'- '2&#5/#5#2-# :'&" &"# 32
-%'()&# 040&#(< =$-" ) %#.#% 0"*$%3 +# )-"'#.#3 :'&"'2 ) &'(# /5)(# 0$//'-'#2& &* )%%*: 33

1
1he followlng summary Lerms are used Lo descrlbe Lhe avallable evldence: llmlLed, medlum, or robusL, and
for Lhe degree of agreemenL: low, medlum, or hlgh. A level of confldence ls expressed uslng flve quallflers:
very low, low, medlum, hlgh, and very hlgh, and LypeseL ln lLallcs, e.g., (#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#. lor a glven
evldence and agreemenL sLaLemenL, dlfferenL confldence levels can be asslgned, buL lncreaslng levels of
evldence and degrees of agreemenL are correlaLed wlLh lncreaslng confldence. lor more deLalls, please refer
Lo Lhe guldance noLe for Lead AuLhors of Lhe lCC llfLh AssessmenL 8eporL on conslsLenL LreaLmenL of
uncerLalnLles.
2
1he followlng Lerms have been used Lo lndlcaLe Lhe assessed llkellhood of an ouLcome or a resulL: vlrLually
cerLaln 99-100 probablllLy, very llkely 90-100, llkely 66-100, abouL as llkely as noL 33-66, unllkely 0-
33, very unllkely 0-10, excepLlonally unllkely 0-1. AddlLlonal Lerms (more llkely Lhan noL >30-100, and
more unllkely Lhan llkely 0 <30) may also be used when approprlaLe. Assessed llkellhood ls LypeseL ln lLallcs,
e.g., .#54 %'>#%4.
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#-*040&#(0 &* )3)8& 2)&$5)%%4 &* -%'()&# -")26#9 &* #20$5# &")& /**3 85*3$-&'*2 '0 2*& 1
&"5#)&#2#3 )23 &* #2)+%# #-*2*('- 3#.#%*8(#2& &* 85*-##3 '2 ) 0$0&)'2)+%# ()22#5< 2
CllmaLe pollcles can be lnformed by Lhe flndlngs of sclence, and sysLemaLlc meLhods from oLher 3
dlsclpllnes. [1.2, 2.4, 2.3, 8ox 3.1] 4
!%14'-3'?,0 80>0,+;&034 '38 0@%-4) ;(+>-80 ' ?'1-1 *+( '11011-3= .,-&'40 ;+,-.-01 '38 <-=<,-=<4 3
4<0 3008 *+( '88(011-3= 4<0 (-1/1 +* .,-&'40 .<'3=05
3
LlmlLlng Lhe effecLs of cllmaLe change ls 6
necessary Lo achleve susLalnable developmenL and equlLy, lncludlng poverLy eradlcaLlon. AL Lhe 7
same Llme, some mlLlgaLlon efforLs could undermlne acLlon on Lhe rlghL Lo promoLe susLalnable 8
developmenL, and on Lhe achlevemenL of poverLy eradlcaLlon and equlLy. ConsequenLly, a 9
comprehenslve assessmenL of cllmaLe pollcles lnvolves golng beyond a focus on mlLlgaLlon and 10
adapLaLlon pollcles alone Lo examlne developmenL paLhways more broadly, along wlLh Lhelr 11
deLermlnanLs. [4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.6, 4.8] 12
A**0.4->0 &-4-='4-+3 B-,, 3+4 ?0 '.<-0>08 -* -38->-8%', '=0341 '8>'3.0 4<0-( +B3 -340(0141 13
-380;038034,)5 CllmaLe change has Lhe characLerlsLlcs of a collecLlve acLlon problem aL Lhe global 14
scale, because mosL greenhouse gases (CPCs) accumulaLe over Llme and mlx globally, and emlsslons 13
by any agenL (e.g., lndlvldual, communlLy, company, counLry) affecL oLher agenLs.
4
lnLernaLlonal 16
cooperaLlon ls Lherefore requlred Lo effecLlvely mlLlgaLe CPC emlsslons and address oLher cllmaLe 17
change lssues [1.2.4, 2.6.4, 3.1, 4.2, 13.2, 13.3]. lurLhermore, research and developmenL ln supporL 18
of mlLlgaLlon creaLes knowledge splllovers. lnLernaLlonal cooperaLlon can play a consLrucLlve role ln 19
Lhe developmenL, dlffuslon and Lransfer of knowledge and envlronmenLally sound Lechnologles 20
[1.4.4, 3.11.6, 11.8, 13.9, 14.4.3]. 21
711%01 +* 0@%-4)C D%14-.0C '38 *'-(3011 '(-10 B-4< (01;0.4 4+ &-4-='4-+3 '38 '8';4'4-+35
E
CounLrles' 22
pasL and fuLure conLrlbuLlons Lo Lhe accumulaLlon of CPCs ln Lhe aLmosphere are dlfferenL, and 23
counLrles also face varylng challenges and clrcumsLances, and have dlfferenL capaclLles Lo address 24
mlLlgaLlon and adapLaLlon. 1he evldence suggesLs LhaL ouLcomes seen as equlLable can lead Lo more 23
effecLlve cooperaLlon. [3.10, 4.2.2, 4.6.2] 26
#'3) '(0'1 +* .,-&'40 ;+,-.)&'/-3= -3>+,>0 >',%0 D%8=0&0341 '38 04<-.', .+31-80('4-+315 1hese 27
areas range from Lhe quesLlon of how much mlLlgaLlon ls needed Lo prevenL dangerous lnLerference 28
wlLh Lhe cllmaLe sysLem Lo cholces among speclflc pollcles for mlLlgaLlon or adapLaLlon [3.1, 3.2]. 29
Soclal, economlc and eLhlcal analyses may be used Lo lnform value [udgemenLs and may Lake lnLo 30
accounL values of varlous sorLs, lncludlng human wellbelng, culLural values and nonhuman values. 31
[3.4, 3.10] 32
:&+3= +4<0( &04<+81C 0.+3+&-. 0>',%'4-+3 -1 .+&&+3,) %108 4+ -3*+(& .,-&'40 ;+,-.) 801-=35 33
racLlcal Lools for economlc assessmenL lnclude cosLbeneflL analysls, cosLeffecLlveness analysls, 34
mulLlcrlLerla analysls and expecLed uLlllLy Lheory [2.3]. 1he llmlLaLlons of Lhese Lools are well 33
documenLed [3.3]. LLhlcal Lheorles based on soclal welfare funcLlons lmply LhaL dlsLrlbuLlonal 36
welghLs, whlch Lake accounL of Lhe dlfferenL value of money Lo dlfferenL people, should be applled 37
Lo moneLary measures of beneflLs and harms [3.6.1, 8ox 1S.2]. Whereas dlsLrlbuLlonal welghLlng has 38
noL frequenLly been applled for comparlng Lhe effecLs of cllmaLe pollcles on dlfferenL people aL a 39
slngle Llme, lL ls sLandard pracLlce, ln Lhe form of dlscounLlng, for comparlng Lhe effecLs aL dlfferenL 40
Llmes [3.6.2]. 41

3
See WCll A83 SM.
4
ln Lhe soclal sclences Lhls ls referred Lo as a 'global commons problem'. As Lhls expresslon ls used ln Lhe soclal
sclences, lL has no speclflc lmpllcaLlons for legal arrangemenLs or for parLlcular crlLerla regardlng efforL
sharlng.
3
See lAC 3.2 for clarlflcaLlon of Lhese concepLs. 1he phllosophlcal llLeraLure on [usLlce and oLher llLeraLure can
lllumlnaLe Lhese lssues [3.2, 3.3, 4.6.2].
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2,-&'40 ;+,-.) -340(10.41 B-4< +4<0( 1+.-04', =+',1 .(0'4-3= 4<0 ;+11-?-,-4) +* .+?030*-41 +( '8>0(10 1
1-800**0.415 F<010 -340(10.4-+31C -* B0,,&'3'=08C .'3 14(03=4<03 4<0 ?'1-1 *+( %380(4'/-3= 2
.,-&'40 '.4-+35 MlLlgaLlon and adapLaLlon can poslLlvely or negaLlvely lnfluence Lhe achlevemenL of 3
oLher socleLal goals, such as Lhose relaLed Lo human healLh, food securlLy, blodlverslLy, local 4
envlronmenLal quallLy, energy access, llvellhoods, and equlLable susLalnable developmenL, and vlce 3
versa, pollcles Loward oLher socleLal goals can lnfluence Lhe achlevemenL of mlLlgaLlon and 6
adapLaLlon ob[ecLlves [4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.6, 4.8]. 1hese lnfluences can be subsLanLlal, alLhough 7
someLlmes dlfflculL Lo quanLlfy, especlally ln welfare Lerms [3.6.3]. 1hls mulLlob[ecLlve perspecLlve ls 8
lmporLanL ln parL because lL helps Lo ldenLlfy areas where supporL for pollcles LhaL advance mulLlple 9
goals wlll be robusL [1.2.1, 4.2, 4.8, 6.6.1]. 10
2,-&'40 ;+,-.) &') ?0 -3*+(&08 ?) ' .+31-80('4-+3 +* ' 8->0(10 '((') +* (-1/1 '38 %3.0(4'-34-01C 11
1+&0 +* B<-.< '(0 8-**-.%,4 4+ &0'1%(0C 3+4'?,) 0>0341 4<'4 '(0 +* ,+B ;(+?'?-,-4) ?%4 B<-.< B+%,8 12
<'>0 ' 1-=3-*-.'34 -&;'.4 -* 4<0) +..%(. Slnce A84, Lhe sclenLlflc llLeraLure has examlned rlsks relaLed 13
Lo cllmaLe change, adapLaLlon, and mlLlgaLlon sLraLegles. AccuraLely esLlmaLlng Lhe beneflLs of 14
mlLlgaLlon Lakes lnLo accounL Lhe full range of posslble lmpacLs of cllmaLe change, lncludlng Lhose 13
wlLh hlgh consequences buL a low probablllLy of occurrence. 1he beneflLs of mlLlgaLlon may 16
oLherwlse be underesLlmaLed ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#) [2.3, 2.6, 8ox 3.9]. 1he cholce of mlLlgaLlon acLlons ls 17
also lnfluenced by uncerLalnLles ln many socloeconomlc varlables, lncludlng Lhe raLe of economlc 18
growLh and Lhe evoluLlon of Lechnology ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#) [2.6, 6.3]. 19
F<0 801-=3 +* .,-&'40 ;+,-.) -1 -3*,%03.08 ?) <+B -38->-8%',1 '38 +(='3-G'4-+31 ;0(.0->0 (-1/1 '38 20
%3.0(4'-34-01 '38 4'/0 4<0& -34+ '..+%345 eople ofLen uLlllze slmpllfled declslon rules such as a 21
preference for Lhe sLaLus quo. lndlvlduals and organlzaLlons dlffer ln Lhelr degree of rlsk averslon and 22
Lhe relaLlve lmporLance placed on nearLerm versus longLerm ramlflcaLlons of speclflc acLlons [2.4]. 23
WlLh Lhe help of formal meLhods, pollcy deslgn can be lmproved by Laklng lnLo accounL rlsks and 24
uncerLalnLles ln naLural, socloeconomlc, and Lechnologlcal sysLems as well as declslon processes, 23
percepLlons, values and wealLh [2.3]. 26
!"#5H F(0381 -3 14+./1 '38 *,+B1 +* =(003<+%10 ='101 '38 4<0-( 8(->0(1 27
F+4', '34<(+;+=03-. IJI 0&-11-+31 <'>0 .+34-3%08 4+ -3.(0'10 +>0( 6KLM 4+ 9M6M B-4< ,'(=0( 28
'?1+,%40 80.'8', -3.(0'101 4+B'(8 4<0 038 +* 4<-1 ;0(-+8 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 uesplLe a growlng 29
number of cllmaLe change mlLlgaLlon pollcles, annual CPC emlsslons grew on average by 1.0 glga 30
Lonne carbon dloxlde equlvalenL (CLCC
2
eq) (2.2) per year from 2000 Lo 2010 compared Lo 0.4 31
CLCC
2
eq (1.3) per year from 1970 Lo 2000 (llgure SM.1).
6,7
1oLal anLhropogenlc CPC emlsslons 32
were Lhe hlghesL ln human hlsLory from 2000 Lo 2010 and reached 49 (4.3) CLCC
2
eq/yr ln 2010. 1he 33
global economlc crlsls 2007/2008 only Lemporarlly reduced emlsslons. [1.3, 3.2, 13.3, 13.2.2, 8ox 34
1S.3, llgure 13.1] 33
2N
9
0&-11-+31 *(+& *+11-, *%0, .+&?%14-+3 '38 -38%14(-', ;(+.01101 .+34(-?%408 '?+%4 LOP +* 4<0 36
4+4', IJI 0&-11-+3 -3.(0'10 *(+& 6KLM 4+ 9M6MC B-4< ' 1-&-,'( ;0(.034'=0 .+34(-?%4-+3 *+( 4<0 37
;0(-+8 9MMMQ9M6M ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 lossll fuelrelaLed CC
2
emlsslons reached 32 (2.7) CLCC
2
/yr, ln 38
2010, and grew furLher by abouL 3 beLween 2010 and 2011 and by abouL 12 beLween 2011 and 39
2012. Cf Lhe 49 (4.3) CLCC
2
eq/yr ln LoLal anLhropogenlc CPC emlsslons ln 2010, CC
2
remalns Lhe 40
ma[or anLhropogenlc CPC accounLlng for 76 (383.8 CLCC
2
eq/yr) of LoLal anLhropogenlc CPC 41
emlsslons ln 2010. 16 (7.81.6 CLCC
2
eq/yr) come from meLhane (CP
4
), 6.2 (3.11.9 CLCC
2
eq/yr) 42

6
1hroughouL Lhe SM, emlsslons of CPCs are welghLed by Clobal Warmlng oLenLlals wlLh a 100year Llme
horlzon (CW
100
) from Lhe lCC Second AssessmenL 8eporL. All meLrlcs have llmlLaLlons and uncerLalnLles ln
assesslng consequences of dlfferenL emlsslons. [3.9.6, 8ox 1S.3, Annex ll.2.9, WCl A83 SM]
7
ln Lhls SM, uncerLalnLy ln hlsLorlc CPC emlsslon daLa ls reporLed uslng 90 uncerLalnLy lnLervals unless
oLherwlse sLaLed. CPC emlsslon levels are rounded Lo Lwo slgnlflcanL dlglLs LhroughouL Lhls documenL.
EMBARGOED
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from nlLrous oxlde (n
2
C), and 2.0 (1.00.2 CLCC
2
eq/yr) from fluorlnaLed gases (llgure SM.1). 1
Annually, slnce 1970, abouL 23 of anLhropogenlc CPC emlsslons have been ln Lhe form of nonCC
2
2
gases.
8
[1.2, 3.2] 3
4
Figure SPM.1. Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions (GtCO
2
eq/yr) by groups of gases 1970- 3
2010: CO
2
from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes; CO
2
from Forestry and Other Land 6
Use (FOLU); methane (CH
4
); nitrous oxide (N
2
O); fluorinated gases
8
covered under the Kyoto 7
Protocol (F-gases). At the right side of the figure GHG emissions in 2010 are shown again broken 8
down into these components with the associated uncertainties (90% confidence interval) indicated by 9
the error bars. Total anthropogenic GHG emissions uncertainties are derived from the individual gas 10
estimates as described in Chapter 5 [5.2.3.6]. Global CO
2
emissions from fossil fuel combustion are 11
known within 8% uncertainty (90% confidence interval). CO
2
emissions from FOLU have very large 12
uncertainties attached in the order of 50%. Uncertainty for global emissions of CH
4
, N
2
O and the F- 13
gases has been estimated as 20%, 60% and 20%, respectively. 2010 was the most recent year for 14
which emission statistics on all gases as well as assessment of uncertainties were essentially 13
complete at the time of data cut off for this report. Emissions are converted into CO
2
-equivalents 16
based on GWP
100
6
from the IPCC Second Assessment Report. The emission data from FOLU 17
represents land-based CO
2
emissions from forest fires, peat fires and peat decay that approximate to 18
net CO
2
flux from the FOLU as described in chapter 11 of this report. Average annual growth rate 19
over different periods is highlighted with the brackets. [Figure 1.3, Figure TS.1] [Subject to final quality 20
check and copy edit.] 21
:?+%4 <',* +* .%&%,'4->0 '34<(+;+=03-. 2N
9
0&-11-+31 ?04B003 6LEM '38 9M6M <'>0 +..%((08 -3 22
4<0 ,'14 RM )0'(1 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 ln 1970, cumulaLlve CC
2
emlsslons from fossll fuel combusLlon, 23
cemenL producLlon and flarlng slnce 1730 were 42033 CLCC
2
, ln 2010, LhaL cumulaLlve LoLal had 24
Lrlpled Lo 1300 110 CLCC
2
(llgure SM.2). CumulaLlve CC
2
emlsslons from loresLry and CLher Land 23
use (lCLu)
9
slnce 1730 lncreased from 490180 CLCC
2
ln 1970 Lo 680300 CLCC
2
ln 2010. [3.2] 26

8
ln Lhls reporL, daLa on nonCC
2
CPCs, lncludlng fluorlnaLed gases, ls Laken from Lhe LuCA8 daLabase (Annex
ll.9), whlch covers subsLances lncluded ln Lhe kyoLo roLocol ln lLs flrsL commlLmenL perlod.
9
loresLry and CLher Land use (lCLu)-also referred Lo as LuLuCl (Land use, Landuse Change, and
loresLry)-ls Lhe subseL of AgrlculLure, loresLry and CLher Land use (AlCLu) emlsslons and removals of CPCs
relaLed Lo dlrecL humanlnduced land use, landuse change and foresLry acLlvlLles excludlng agrlculLural
emlsslons and removals (see WClll A83 Clossary).
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:33%', '34<(+;+=03-. IJI 0&-11-+31 <'>0 -3.(0'108 ?) 6M I42N
9
0@ ?04B003 9MMM '38 9M6MC B-4< 1
4<-1 -3.(0'10 8-(0.4,) .+&-3= *(+& 030(=) 1%;;,) SRLPTC -38%14() SHMPTC 4('31;+(4 S66PT '38 2
?%-,8-3=1 SHPT 10.4+(1 ((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#)5 :..+%34-3= *+( -38-(0.4 0&-11-+31 ('-101 4<0 3
.+34(-?%4-+31 +* 4<0 ?%-,8-3=1 '38 -38%14() 10.4+(1 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 Slnce 2000, CPC emlsslons 4
have been growlng ln all secLors, excepL AlCLu. Cf Lhe 49 (4.3) CLCC
2
eq emlsslons ln 2010, 33 (17 3
CLCC
2
eq) of CPC emlsslons were released ln Lhe energy supply secLor, 24 (12 CLCC
2
eq, neL 6
emlsslons) ln AlCLu, 21 (10 CLCC
2
eq) ln lndusLry, 14 (7.0 CLCC
2
eq) ln LransporL and 6.4 (3.2 7
CLCC
2
eq) ln bulldlngs. When emlsslons from elecLrlclLy and heaL producLlon are aLLrlbuLed Lo Lhe 8
secLors LhaL use Lhe flnal energy (l.e. lndlrecL emlsslons), Lhe shares of Lhe lndusLry and bulldlngs 9
secLors ln global CPC emlsslons are lncreased Lo 31 and 19, respecLlvely (llgure SM.2). [7.3, 8.2, 10
9.2, 10.3, 11.2] 11
12
Figure SPM.2. Total anthropogenic GHG emissions (GtCO
2
eq/yr) by economic sectors. Inner circle 13
shows direct GHG emission shares (in % of total anthropogenic GHG emissions) of five economic 14
sectors in 2010. Pull-out shows how indirect CO
2
emission shares (in % of total anthropogenic GHG 13
emissions) from electricity and heat production are attributed to sectors of final energy use. Other 16
Energy refers to all GHG emission sources in the energy sector as defined in Annex II other than 17
electricity and heat production [A.II.9.1]. The emissions data from Agriculture, Forestry and Other 18
Land Use (AFOLU) includes land-based CO
2
emissions from forest fires, peat fires and peat decay 19
that approximate to net CO
2
flux from the Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) sub-sector as 20
described in Chapter 11 of this report. Emissions are converted into CO
2
-equivalents based on 21
GWP
100
6
from the IPCC Second Assessment Report. Sector definitions are provided in Annex II.9. 22
[Figure 1.3a, Figure TS.3 a/b] [Subject to final quality check and copy edit.] 23
I,+?',,)C 0.+3+&-. '38 ;+;%,'4-+3 =(+B4< .+34-3%0 4+ ?0 4<0 &+14 -&;+(4'34 8(->0(1 +* -3.(0'101 24
-3 2N
9
0&-11-+31 *(+& *+11-, *%0, .+&?%14-+35 F<0 .+34(-?%4-+3 +* ;+;%,'4-+3 =(+B4< ?04B003 23
9MMM '38 9M6M (0&'-308 (+%=<,) -8034-.', 4+ 4<0 ;(0>-+%1 4<(00 80.'801C B<-,0 4<0 .+34(-?%4-+3 +* 26
0.+3+&-. =(+B4< <'1 (-103 1<'(;,) ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 8eLween 2000 and 2010, boLh drlvers 27
ouLpaced emlsslon reducLlons from lmprovemenLs ln energy lnLenslLy (llgure SM.3). lncreased use 28
of coal relaLlve Lo oLher energy sources has reversed Lhe longsLandlng Lrend of gradual 29
decarbonlzaLlon of Lhe world's energy supply. [1.3, 3.3, 7.2, 14.3, 1S.2.2] 30
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1
Figure SPM.3. Decomposition of the decadal change in total global CO
2
emissions from fossil fuel 2
combustion by four driving factors; population, income (GDP) per capita, energy intensity of GDP and 3
carbon intensity of energy. The bar segments show the changes associated with each factor alone, 4
holding the respective other factors constant. Total decadal changes are indicated by a triangle. 3
Changes are measured in giga tonnes (Gt) of CO
2
emissions per decade; income is converted into 6
common units using purchasing power parities. [Figure 1.7] [Subject to final quality check and copy 7
edit.] 8
U-4<+%4 '88-4-+3', 0**+(41 4+ (08%.0 IJI 0&-11-+31 ?0)+38 4<+10 -3 ;,'.0 4+8')C 0&-11-+31 9
=(+B4< -1 0V;0.408 4+ ;0(1-14 8(->03 ?) =(+B4< -3 =,+?', ;+;%,'4-+3 '38 0.+3+&-. '.4->-4-015 10
W'10,-30 1.03'(-+1C 4<+10 B-4<+%4 '88-4-+3', &-4-='4-+3C (01%,4 -3 =,+?', &0'3 1%(*'.0 40&;0('4%(0 11
-3.(0'101 -3 96MM *(+& H5L 4+ R5OX2 .+&;'(08 4+ ;(0-38%14(-', ,0>0,1
10
S&08-'3 >',%01Y 4<0 ('3=0 -1 12
95EX2 4+ L5OX2 B<03 -3.,%8-3= .,-&'40 %3.0(4'-34)C 100 F'?,0 !"#56T
11
("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 1he 13
emlsslon scenarlos collecLed for Lhls assessmenL represenL full radlaLlve forclng lncludlng CPCs, 14
Lropospherlc ozone, aerosols and albedo change. 8asellne scenarlos (scenarlos wlLhouL expllclL 13
addlLlonal efforLs Lo consLraln emlsslons) exceed 430 parLs per mllllon (ppm) CC
2
eq by 2030 and 16
reach CC
2
eq concenLraLlon levels beLween 730 and more Lhan 1300 ppm CC
2
eq by 2100. 1hls ls 17
slmllar Lo Lhe range ln aLmospherlc concenLraLlon levels beLween Lhe 8C 6.0 and 8C 8.3 paLhways 18

10
8ased on Lhe longesL global surface LemperaLure daLaseL avallable, Lhe observed change beLween Lhe
average of Lhe perlod 18301900 and of Lhe A83 reference perlod (1986-2003) ls 0.61C (3-93 confldence
lnLerval: 0.33 Lo 0.67C) [WCl A83 SM.L], whlch ls used here as an approxlmaLlon of Lhe change ln global
mean surface LemperaLure slnce prelndusLrlal Llmes, referred Lo as Lhe perlod before 1730.
11
1he cllmaLe uncerLalnLy reflecLs Lhe 3Lh Lo 93Lh percenLlle of cllmaLe model calculaLlons descrlbed ln 1able
SM.1.
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ln 2100.
12
lor comparlson, Lhe CC
2
eq concenLraLlon ln 2011 ls esLlmaLed Lo be 430 ppm (uncerLalnLy 1
range 340-320 ppm)
13
. [6.3, 8ox 1S.6, WCl A83 llgure SM.3, WCl 8.3, WCl 12.3] 2

12
lor Lhe purpose of Lhls assessmenL, roughly 300 basellne scenarlos and 900 mlLlgaLlon scenarlos were
collecLed Lhrough an open call from lnLegraLed modelllng Leams around Lhe world. 1hese scenarlos are
complemenLary Lo Lhe 8epresenLaLlve ConcenLraLlon aLhways (8Cs, see WClll A83 Clossary). 1he 8Cs are
ldenLlfled by Lhelr approxlmaLe LoLal radlaLlve forclng ln year 2100 relaLlve Lo 1730: 2.6 WaLLs per square
meLer (W m
2
) for 8C2.6, 4.3 W m
2
for 8C4.3, 6.0 W m
2
for 8C6.0, and 8.3 W m
2
for 8C8.3. 1he scenarlos
collecLed for Lhls assessmenL span a sllghLly broader range of concenLraLlons ln Lhe year 2100 Lhan Lhe four
8Cs.
13
1hls ls based on Lhe assessmenL of LoLal anLhropogenlc radlaLlve forclng for 2011 relaLlve Lo 1730 ln WCl, l.e.
2.3 W m
2
, uncerLalnLy range 1.1 Lo 3.3 W m
2
. [WCl A83 llgure SM.3, WCl 8.3, WCl 12.3]
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!"#5R #-4-='4-+3 ;'4<B')1 '38 &0'1%(01 -3 4<0 .+340V4 +* 1%14'-3'?,0 1
80>0,+;&034 2
!"#5R56 Z+3=40(& &-4-='4-+3 ;'4<B')1 3
F<0(0 '(0 &%,4-;,0 1.03'(-+1 B-4< ' ('3=0 +* 40.<3+,+=-.', '38 ?0<'>-+(', +;4-+31C B-4< 8-**0(034 4
.<'('.40(-14-.1 '38 -&;,-.'4-+31 *+( 1%14'-3'?,0 80>0,+;&034C 4<'4 '(0 .+31-14034 B-4< 8-**0(034 3
,0>0,1 +* &-4-='4-+35 lor Lhls assessmenL, abouL 900 mlLlgaLlon scenarlos have been collecLed ln a 6
daLabase based on publlshed lnLegraLed models.
14
1hls range spans aLmospherlc concenLraLlon 7
levels ln 2100 from 430 ppm CC
2
eq Lo above 720 ppm CC
2
eq, whlch ls comparable Lo Lhe 2100 8
forclng levels beLween 8C 2.6 and 8C 6.0. Scenarlos ouLslde Lhls range were also assessed 9
lncludlng some scenarlos wlLh concenLraLlons ln 2100 below 430 ppm CC
2
eq (for a dlscusslon of 10
Lhese scenarlos see below). 1he mlLlgaLlon scenarlos lnvolve a wlde range of Lechnologlcal, 11
socloeconomlc, and lnsLlLuLlonal Lra[ecLorles, buL uncerLalnLles and model llmlLaLlons exlsL and 12
developmenLs ouLslde Lhls range are posslble (llgure SM.4, Lop panel). [6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 1S.3.1, 8ox 13
1S.6] 14
13
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
23
26
27
28
29
30
31

14
1he longLerm scenarlos assessed ln WClll were generaLed prlmarlly by largescale, lnLegraLed models LhaL
pro[ecL many key characLerlsLlcs of mlLlgaLlon paLhways Lo mldcenLury and beyond. 1hese models llnk many
lmporLanL human sysLems (e.g., energy, agrlculLure and land use, economy) wlLh physlcal processes assoclaLed
wlLh cllmaLe change (e.g., Lhe carbon cycle). 1he models approxlmaLe cosLeffecLlve soluLlons LhaL mlnlmlze
Lhe aggregaLe economlc cosLs of achlevlng mlLlgaLlon ouLcomes, unless Lhey are speclflcally consLralned Lo
behave oLherwlse. 1hey are slmpllfled, sLyllzed represenLaLlons of hlghlycomplex, realworld processes, and
Lhe scenarlos Lhey produce are based on uncerLaln pro[ecLlons abouL key evenLs and drlvers over ofLen
cenLurylong Llmescales. SlmpllflcaLlons and dlfferences ln assumpLlons are Lhe reason why ouLpuL generaLed
from dlfferenL models, or verslons of Lhe same model, can dlffer, and pro[ecLlons from all models can dlffer
conslderably from Lhe reallLy LhaL unfolds. [8ox 1S.7, 6.2]
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1
Figure SPM.4. Pathways of global GHG emissions (GtCO
2
eq/yr) in baseline and mitigation scenarios 2
for different long-term concentration levels (upper panel) and associated upscaling requirements of 3
low-carbon energy (% of primary energy) for 2030, 2050 and 2100 compared to 2010 levels in 4
mitigation scenarios (lower panel). The upper and lower panels exclude scenarios with limited 3
technology availability and the lower panel in addition excludes scenarios that assume exogenous 6
carbon price trajectories. [Figure 6.7, Figure 7.16] [Subject to final quality check and copy edit.] 7
#-4-='4-+3 1.03'(-+1 -3 B<-.< -4 -1 !"#$!% 4<'4 4<0 40&;0('4%(0 .<'3=0 .'%108 ?) '34<(+;+=03-. 8
IJI 0&-11-+31 .'3 ?0 /0;4 4+ ,011 4<'3 9X2 (0,'4->0 4+ ;(0-38%14(-', ,0>0,1 '(0 .<'('.40(-G08 ?) 9
'4&+1;<0(-. .+3.034('4-+31 -3 96MM +* '?+%4 REM ;;& 2N
9
0@ ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 MlLlgaLlon 10
scenarlos reachlng concenLraLlon levels of abouL 300 ppm CC
2
eq by 2100 are (*5# %'>#%4 &")2 2*& Lo 11
llmlL LemperaLure change Lo less Lhan 2C relaLlve Lo prelndusLrlal levels, unless Lhey Lemporarlly 12
'overshooL' concenLraLlon levels of roughly 330 ppm CC
2
eq before 2100, ln whlch case Lhey are 13
)+*$& )0 %'>#%4 )0 2*& Lo achleve LhaL goal.
13
Scenarlos LhaL reach 330 Lo 630 ppm CC
2
eq 14
concenLraLlons by 2100 are (*5# $2%'>#%4 &")2 %'>#%4 Lo keep LemperaLure change below 2C relaLlve 13
Lo prelndusLrlal levels. Scenarlos LhaL reach abouL 630 ppm CC
2
eq by 2100 are $2%'>#%4 Lo llmlL 16
LemperaLure change Lo below 2C relaLlve Lo prelndusLrlal levels. MlLlgaLlon scenarlos ln whlch 17

13
MlLlgaLlon scenarlos, lncludlng Lhose reachlng 2100 concenLraLlons as hlgh as or hlgher Lhan 330 ppm CC
2
eq,
can Lemporarlly 'overshooL' aLmospherlc CC
2
eq concenLraLlon levels before descendlng Lo lower levels laLer.
Such concenLraLlon overshooL lnvolves less mlLlgaLlon ln Lhe near Lerm wlLh more rapld and deeper emlsslons
reducLlons ln Lhe long run. CvershooL lncreases Lhe probablllLy of exceedlng any glven LemperaLure goal. [6.3,
1able SM.1]
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LemperaLure lncrease ls (*5# %'>#%4 &")2 2*& Lo be less Lhan 1.3C relaLlve Lo prelndusLrlal levels by 1
2100 are characLerlzed by concenLraLlons ln 2100 of below 430 ppm CC
2
eq. 1emperaLure peaks 2
durlng Lhe cenLury and Lhen decllnes ln Lhese scenarlos. robablllLy sLaLemenLs regardlng oLher 3
levels of LemperaLure change can be made wlLh reference Lo 1able SM.1. [6.3, 8ox 1S.6] 4
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Table SPM.1: Key characteristics of the scenarios collected and assessed for WGIII AR5. For all parameters, the 10th to 90th percentile of the scenarios is 1
shown
1,2
. [Table 6.3] 2
!"#$%
!&'($')*+),&'- ,'
#.// 0!"#$%1

!+)$2&*3 4+5$4
0(&'($')*+),&'
*+'2$1
6

785(+)$2&*,$-
9$4+),:$
;&-,),&' &<
)=$ 9!>-
?
!8@84+),:$ !"# $@,--,&'
A

0B)!"#1
!=+'2$ ,' !"#$%
$@,--,&'- (&@;+*$C )&
#/./ ,' 0D1
E

F$@;$*+)8*$ (=+'2$ 0*$4+),:$ )& .G?/H.6//1
?IJ

#/..H#/?/ #/..H#.// #/?/ #.//
#.// F$@;$*+)8*$
(=+'2$ 0K!1
L

M,N$4,=&&C &< -)+3,'2 5$4&O )$@;$*+)8*$ 4$:$4 &:$* )=$ #.
-)
($')8*3
G

.P?
K
! #P/
K
! AP/
K
! EP/
K
!
< 4Su "'43 + 4,@,)$C '8@5$* &< ,'C,:,C8+4 @&C$4 -)8C,$- =+:$ $Q;4&*$C 4$:$4- 5$4&O EA/ ;;@ !"#$%
4Su
(4Su-48u)
Total iange
1,10
9!>#PJ SSu-1Suu 6Su-118u 72 Lo 41 118 to 78 1.S-1.7 (1.u-2.8)
R&*$ 8'4,N$43
)=+' 4,N$43
M,N$43
M,N$43
M,N$43
Suu
(48u-SSu)
No oveishoot of SSu ppm C02eq 86u-118u 96u-14Su 37 to 42 107 to 73 1.7-1.9 (1.2-2.9)
S'4,N$43
R&*$ 4,N$43 )=+'
'&)
0veishoot of SSu ppm C02eq 11Su-1SSu 99u-1SSu 33 to 23 114 to 90 1.8-2.u (1.2-S.S)
T5&8) +- 4,N$43
+- '&)
SSu
(SSu-S8u)
No oveishoot of S8u ppm C02eq 1u7u-146u 124u-224u 47 to 19 81 to 39 2.u-2.2 (1.4-S.6)
R&*$ 8'4,N$43
)=+' 4,N$43
12

0veishoot of S8u ppm C02eq 142u-17Su 117u-21uu 16 to 7 183 to 86 2.1-2.S (1.4-S.6)
(S8u-6Su) Total iange
9!>EP?
126u-164u 187u-244u 38 to 24 134 Lo 30 2.S-2.6 (1.S-4.2)
(6Su-72u) Total iange 1S1u-17Su 2S7u-SS4u 11 Lo 17 34 to 21 2.6-2.9 (1.8-4.S)
S'4,N$43

R&*$ 4,N$43 )=+'
'&)
(72u-1uuu) Total iange 9!>JP/ 1S7u-194u S62u-499u 18 to 34 7 to 72 S.1-S.7 (2.1-S.8)
S'4,N$43
..
R&*$ 8'4,N$43
)=+' 4,N$43
>1uuu Total iange 9!>GP? 184u-2S1u SSSu-7u1u 32 to 93 74 to 178 4.1-4.8 (2.8-7.8) S'4,N$43
..
S'4,N$43
R&*$ 8'4,N$43
)=+' 4,N$43
1
1he 'LoLal range' for Lhe 430-480 ppm CC
2
eq scenarlos corresponds Lo Lhe range of Lhe 10-90Lh percenLlle of Lhe subcaLegory of Lhese scenarlos shown ln 3
Lable 6.3.
2
8asellne scenarlos (see SM.3) are caLegorlzed ln Lhe >1000 and 730-1000 ppm CC
2
eq caLegorles. 1he laLLer caLegory lncludes also mlLlgaLlon 4
scenarlos. 1he basellne scenarlos ln Lhe laLLer caLegory reach a LemperaLure change of 2.3-3.8C above prelndusLrlal ln 2100. 1ogeLher wlLh Lhe basellne 3
scenarlos ln Lhe >1000 ppm CC
2
eq caLegory, Lhls leads Lo an overall 2100 LemperaLure range of 2.3-7.8C (medlan: 3.7-4.8C) for basellne scenarlos across 6
boLh concenLraLlon caLegorles.
3
lor comparlson of Lhe cumulaLlve CC
2
emlsslons esLlmaLes assessed here wlLh Lhose presenLed ln WCl, an amounL of 313 7
[443 Lo 383] CLC (1890 [1630 Lo 2130] CLCC
2
), was already emlLLed by 2011 slnce 1870 [SecLlon WCl 12.3]. noLe LhaL cumulaLlve emlsslons are presenLed 8
here for dlfferenL perlods of Llme (2011-2030 and 2011-2100) whlle cumulaLlve emlsslons ln WCl are presenLed as LoLal compaLlble emlsslons for Lhe 8Cs 9
(2012-2100) or for LoLal compaLlble emlsslons for remalnlng below a glven LemperaLure LargeL wlLh a glven llkellhood. [WCl 1able SM.3, WCl SM.L.8]
4
10
1he global 2010 emlsslons are 31 above Lhe 1990 emlsslons (conslsLenL wlLh Lhe hlsLorlc CPC emlsslon esLlmaLes presenLed ln Lhls reporL). CC
2
eq 11
emlsslons lnclude Lhe baskeL of kyoLo gases (CC
2
, CP
4
, n
2
C as well as lgases).
3
1he assessmenL ln WClll lnvolves a large number of scenarlos publlshed ln 12
Lhe sclenLlflc llLeraLure and ls Lhus noL llmlLed Lo Lhe 8Cs. 1o evaluaLe Lhe greenhouse gas concenLraLlon and cllmaLe lmpllcaLlons of Lhese scenarlos, Lhe 13
MAClCC model was used ln a probablllsLlc mode (see Annex ll). lor a comparlson beLween MAClCC model resulLs and Lhe ouLcomes of Lhe models used ln 14
WCl, see SecLlon WCl 12.4.1.2 and WCl 12.4.8 and 6.3.2.6. 8easons for dlfferences wlLh WCl SM 1able.2 lnclude Lhe dlfference ln reference year (1986- 13
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2003 vs. 1830-1900 here), dlfference ln reporLlng year (2081-2100 vs 2100 here), seLup of slmulaLlon (CMl3 concenLraLlon drlven versus MAClCC 1
emlsslondrlven here), and Lhe wlder seL of scenarlos (8Cs versus Lhe full seL of scenarlos ln Lhe WClll A83 scenarlo daLabase here).
6
1emperaLure change 2
ls reporLed for Lhe year 2100, whlch ls noL dlrecLly comparable Lo Lhe equlllbrlum warmlng reporLed ln A84 (1able 3.3, ChapLer 3 WClll). lor Lhe 2100 3
LemperaLure esLlmaLes, Lhe LranslenL cllmaLe response (1C8) ls Lhe mosL relevanL sysLem properLy. 1he assumed 90Lh percenLlle uncerLalnLy range of Lhe 4
1C8 for MAClCC ls 1.2-2.6C (medlan 1.8C). 1hls compares Lo Lhe 90Lh percenLlle range of 1C8 beLween 1.2-2.4C for CMl3 (WCl 9.7) and an assessed 3
llkely range of 1-2.3C from mulLlple llnes of evldence reporLed ln Lhe lCC A83 WCl reporL (8ox 12.2 ln chapLer 12.3).
7
1emperaLure change ln 2100 ls 6
provlded for a medlan esLlmaLe of Lhe MAClCC calculaLlons, whlch lllusLraLes dlfferences beLween Lhe emlsslons paLhways of Lhe scenarlos ln each 7
caLegory. 1he range of LemperaLure change ln Lhe parenLheses lncludes ln addlLlon also Lhe carbon cycle and cllmaLe sysLem uncerLalnLles as represenLed 8
by Lhe MAClCC model (see 6.3.2.6 for furLher deLalls). 1he LemperaLure daLa compared Lo Lhe 1830-1900 reference year was calculaLed by Laklng all 9
pro[ecLed warmlng relaLlve Lo 1986-2003, and addlng 0.61C for 1986-2003 compared Lo 1830-1900, based on PadC8u14 (see WCl 1able SM.2).
8
1he 10
assessmenL ln Lhls Lable ls based on Lhe probablllLles calculaLed for Lhe full ensemble of scenarlos ln WClll uslng MAClCC and Lhe assessmenL ln WCl of Lhe 11
uncerLalnLy of Lhe LemperaLure pro[ecLlons noL covered by cllmaLe models. 1he sLaLemenLs are Lherefore conslsLenL wlLh Lhe sLaLemenLs ln WCl, whlch are 12
based on Lhe CMl3 runs of Lhe 8Cs and Lhe assessed uncerLalnLles. Pence, Lhe llkellhood sLaLemenLs reflecL dlfferenL llnes of evldence from boLh WCs. 13
1hls WCl meLhod was also applled for scenarlos wlLh lnLermedlaLe concenLraLlon levels where no CMl3 runs are avallable. 1he llkellhood sLaLemenLs are 14
lndlcaLlve only (6.3), and follow broadly Lhe Lerms used by Lhe WCl SM for LemperaLure pro[ecLlons: %'>#%4 66-100, (*5# %'>#%4 &")2 2*& >30-100, )+*$& 13
)0 %'>#%4 )0 2*& 33-66, and $2%'>#%4 0-33. ln addlLlon Lhe Lerm (*5# $2%'>#%4 &")2 %'>#%4 0 <30 ls used.
9
1he CC
2
equlvalenL concenLraLlon lncludes Lhe 16
forclng of all CPCs lncludlng halogenaLed gases and Lropospherlc ozone, aerosols and albedo change (calculaLed on Lhe basls of Lhe LoLal forclng from a 17
slmple carbon cycle/cllmaLe model MAClCC).
10
1he vasL ma[orlLy of scenarlos ln Lhls caLegory overshooL Lhe caLegory boundary of 480 ppm CC
2
eq 18
concenLraLlons.
11
lor scenarlos ln Lhls caLegory no CMl3 run (WCl A83: ChapLer 12, 1able 12.3) as well as no MAClCC reallzaLlon (6.3) sLays below Lhe 19
respecLlve LemperaLure level. SLlll, an 'unllkely' asslgnmenL ls glven Lo reflecL uncerLalnLles LhaL mlghL noL be reflecLed by Lhe currenL cllmaLe models.
12
20
Scenarlos ln Lhe 380-630 ppm CC
2
eq caLegory lnclude boLh overshooL scenarlos and scenarlos LhaL do noL exceed Lhe concenLraLlon level aL Lhe hlgh end of 21
Lhe caLegory (llke 8C4.3). 1he laLLer Lype of scenarlos, ln general, have an assessed probablllLy of (*5# $2%'>#%4 &")2 %'>#%4 Lo exceed Lhe 2C LemperaLure 22
level, whlle Lhe former are mosLly assessed Lo have an $2%'>#%4 probablllLy of exceedlng Lhls level. [Sub[ecL Lo flnal quallLy check and copy edlL.] 23
24
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!.03'(-+1 (0'.<-3= '4&+1;<0(-. .+3.034('4-+3 ,0>0,1 +* '?+%4 REM ;;& 2N
9
0@ ?) 96MM S.+31-14034 1
B-4< ' !"#$!% .<'3.0 4+ /00; 40&;0('4%(0 .<'3=0 ?0,+B 9X2 (0,'4->0 4+ ;(0-38%14(-', ,0>0,1T 2
-3.,%80 1%?14'34-', .%41 -3 '34<(+;+=03-. IJI 0&-11-+31 ?) &-8.034%() 4<(+%=< ,'(=01.',0 3
.<'3=01 -3 030(=) 1)140&1 '38 ;+4034-',,) ,'38 %10 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 Scenarlos reachlng Lhese 4
concenLraLlons by 2100 are characLerlzed by lower global CPC emlsslons ln 2030 Lhan ln 2010, 40 3
Lo 70 lower globally
16
, and emlsslons levels near zero CLCC
2
eq or below ln 2100. ln scenarlos 6
reachlng 300 ppm CC
2
eq by 2100, 2030 emlsslons levels are 23 Lo 33 lower Lhan ln 2010 globally. 7
ln scenarlos reachlng 330 ppm CC
2
eq, emlsslons ln 2030 are from 3 above 2010 levels Lo 43 8
below 2010 levels globally (1able SM.1). AL Lhe global level, scenarlos reachlng 430 ppm CC
2
eq are 9
also characLerlzed by more rapld lmprovemenLs of energy efflclency, a Lrlpllng Lo nearly a 10
quadrupllng of Lhe share of zero and lowcarbon energy supply from renewables, nuclear energy 11
and fossll energy wlLh carbon dloxlde capLure and sLorage (CCS), or bloenergy wlLh CCS (8LCCS) by 12
Lhe year 2030 (llgure SM.4, lower panel). 1hese scenarlos descrlbe a wlde range of changes ln land 13
use, reflecLlng dlfferenL assumpLlons abouL Lhe scale of bloenergy producLlon, afforesLaLlon, and 14
reduced deforesLaLlon. All of Lhese emlsslons, energy, and landuse changes vary across reglons.
17
13
Scenarlos reachlng hlgher concenLraLlons lnclude slmllar changes, buL on a slower Llmescale. Cn Lhe 16
oLher hand, scenarlos reachlng lower concenLraLlons requlre Lhese changes on a fasLer Llmescale. 17
[6.3, 7.11] 18
#-4-='4-+3 1.03'(-+1 (0'.<-3= '?+%4 REM ;;& 2N
9
0@ -3 96MM 4);-.',,) -3>+,>0 40&;+('() +>0(1<++4 19
+* '4&+1;<0(-. .+3.034('4-+31C '1 8+ &'3) 1.03'(-+1 (0'.<-3= '?+%4 EMM ;;& 4+ EEM ;;& 2N
9
0@ 20
-3 96MM5 [0;038-3= +3 4<0 ,0>0, +* 4<0 +>0(1<++4C +>0(1<++4 1.03'(-+1 4);-.',,) (0,) +3 4<0 21
'>'-,'?-,-4) '38 B-801;(0'8 80;,+)&034 +* WA22! '38 '**+(014'4-+3 -3 4<0 10.+38 <',* +* 4<0 22
.034%()5 F<0 '>'-,'?-,-4) '38 1.',0 +* 4<010 '38 +4<0( 2'(?+3 [-+V-80 \0&+>', S2[\T 40.<3+,+=-01 23
'38 &04<+81 '(0 %3.0(4'-3 '38 2[\ 40.<3+,+=-01 '38 &04<+81 '(0C 4+ >'()-3= 80=(001C '11+.-'408 24
B-4< .<',,03=01 '38 (-1/1 S100 !0.4-+3 !"# R59T ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5
6O
Cu8 ls also prevalenL ln many 23
scenarlos wlLhouL overshooL Lo compensaLe for resldual emlsslons from secLors where mlLlgaLlon ls 26
more expenslve. 1here ls only llmlLed evldence on Lhe poLenLlal for largescale deploymenL of 8LCCS, 27
largescale afforesLaLlon, and oLher Cu8 Lechnologles and meLhods. [2.6, 6.3, 6.9.1, llgure 6.7, 7.11, 28
11.13] 29
A14-&'408 =,+?', IJI 0&-11-+31 ,0>0,1 -3 9M9M ?'108 +3 4<0 2'3.]3 ",08=01 '(0 3+4 .+31-14034 30
B-4< .+140**0.4->0 ,+3=40(& &-4-='4-+3 4('D0.4+(-01 4<'4 '(0 '4 ,0'14 &' !"#$!% &' ()* 4+ ,-&-4 31
40&;0('4%(0 .<'3=0 4+ 9X2 (0,'4->0 4+ ;(0-38%14(-', ,0>0,1 S96MM .+3.034('4-+31 +* '?+%4 REM '38 32
'?+%4 EMM ;;& 2N
9
0@TC ?%4 4<0) 8+ 3+4 ;(0.,%80 4<0 +;4-+3 4+ &004 4<'4 =+', ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 33
MeeLlng Lhls goal would requlre furLher subsLanLlal reducLlons beyond 2020. 1he Cancun ledges are 34
broadly conslsLenL wlLh cosLeffecLlve scenarlos LhaL are %'>#%4 Lo keep LemperaLure change below 33
3C relaLlve Lo prelndusLrlal levels. [6.4, 13.13, llgure 1S.11, llgure 1S.13] 36

16
1hls range dlffers from Lhe range provlded for a slmllar concenLraLlon caLegory ln A84 (30 Lo 83 lower
Lhan 2000 for CC
2
only). 8easons for Lhls dlfference lnclude LhaL Lhls reporL has assessed a subsLanLlally larger
number of scenarlos Lhan ln A84 and looks aL all CPCs. ln addlLlon, a large proporLlon of Lhe new scenarlos
lnclude neL negaLlve emlsslons Lechnologles (see below). CLher facLors lnclude Lhe use of 2100 concenLraLlon
levels lnsLead of sLablllzaLlon levels and Lhe shlfL ln reference year from 2000 Lo 2010. Scenarlos wlLh hlgher
emlsslons ln 2030 are characLerlzed by a greaLer rellance on Carbon uloxlde 8emoval (Cu8) Lechnologles
beyond mldcenLury.
17
AL Lhe naLlonal level, change ls consldered mosL effecLlve when lL reflecLs counLry and local vlslons and
approaches Lo achlevlng susLalnable developmenL accordlng Lo naLlonal clrcumsLances and prlorlLles [6.4,
11.8.4, WCll A83 SM].
18
Accordlng Lo WCl, Cu8 meLhods have blogeochemlcal and Lechnologlcal llmlLaLlons Lo Lhelr poLenLlal on Lhe
global scale. 1here ls lnsufflclenL knowledge Lo quanLlfy how much CC
2
emlsslons could be parLlally offseL by
Cu8 on a cenLury Llmescale. Cu8 meLhods carry sldeeffecLs and longLerm consequences on a global scale.
[WCl A83 SM.L.8]
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[0,')-3= &-4-='4-+3 0**+(41 ?0)+38 4<+10 -3 ;,'.0 4+8') 4<(+%=< 9MHM -1 014-&'408 4+ 1%?14'34-',,) 1
-3.(0'10 4<0 8-**-.%,4) +* 4<0 4('31-4-+3 4+ ,+B ,+3=0(40(& 0&-11-+31 ,0>0,1 '38 3'((+B 4<0 ('3=0 2
+* +;4-+31 .+31-14034 B-4< &'-34'-3-3= 40&;0('4%(0 .<'3=0 ?0,+B 9X2 (0,'4->0 4+ ;(0-38%14(-', 3
,0>0,1 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 CosLeffecLlve mlLlgaLlon scenarlos LhaL make lL aL leasL )0 %'>#%4 )0 2*& LhaL 4
LemperaLure change wlll remaln below 2C relaLlve Lo prelndusLrlal levels (2100 concenLraLlons 3
beLween abouL 430 and 300 ppm CC
2
eq) are Lyplcally characLerlzed by annual CPC emlsslons ln 6
2030 of roughly beLween 30 CLCC
2
eq and 30 CLCC
2
eq (llgure SM.3, lefL panel). Scenarlos wlLh 7
annual CPC emlsslons above 33 CLCC
2
eq ln 2030 are characLerlzed by subsLanLlally hlgher raLes of 8
emlsslons reducLlons from 2030 Lo 2030 (llgure SM.3, mlddle panel), much more rapld scaleup of 9
lowcarbon energy over Lhls perlod (llgure SM.3, rlghL panel), a larger rellance on Cu8 Lechnologles 10
ln Lhe long Lerm (llgure SM.4, Lop panel), and hlgher LranslLlonal and long Lerm economlc lmpacLs 11
(1able SM.2). uue Lo Lhese lncreased mlLlgaLlon challenges, many models wlLh annual 2030 CPC 12
emlsslons hlgher Lhan 33 CLCC
2
eq could noL produce scenarlos reachlng aLmospherlc concenLraLlon 13
levels LhaL make lL )0 %'>#%4 )0 2*& LhaL LemperaLure change wlll remaln below 2C relaLlve Lo pre 14
lndusLrlal levels. [6.4, 7.11, llgure 1S.11, llgure 1S.13] 13
16
Figure SPM.5. The implications of different 2030 GHG emissions levels for the rate of CO
2
emissions 17
reductions and low-carbon energy upscaling from 2030 to 2050 in mitigation scenarios reaching about 18
450 to 500 (430530) ppm CO
2
eq concentrations by 2100. The scenarios are grouped according to 19
different emissions levels by 2030 (coloured in different shades of green). The left panel shows the 20
pathways of GHG emissions (GtCO
2
eq/yr) leading to these 2030 levels. The black bar shows the 21
estimated uncertainty range of GHG emissions implied by the Cancn Pledges. The middle panel 22
denotes the average annual CO
2
emissions reduction rates for the period 20302050. It compares the 23
median and interquartile range across scenarios from recent intermodel comparisons with explicit 24
2030 interim goals to the range of scenarios in the Scenario Database for WGIII AR5. Annual rates of 23
historical emissions change (sustained over a period of 20 years) are shown in grey. The arrows in 26
the right panel show the magnitude of zero and low-carbon energy supply up-scaling from 2030 to 27
2050 subject to different 2030 GHG emissions levels. Zero- and low-carbon energy supply includes 28
renewables, nuclear energy and fossil energy with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), or 29
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bioenergy with CCS (BECCS). Note: Only scenarios that apply the full, unconstrained mitigation 1
technology portfolio of the underlying models (default technology assumption) are shown. Scenarios 2
with large net negative global emissions (>20 GtCO
2
eq/yr), scenarios with exogenous carbon price 3
assumptions, and scenarios with 2010 emissions significantly outside the historical range are 4
excluded. [Figure 6.32, 7.16] [Subject to final quality check and copy edit.] 3
A14-&'401 +* 4<0 '==(0='40 0.+3+&-. .+141 +* &-4-='4-+3 >'() B-80,) '38 '(0 <-=<,) 1031-4->0 4+ 6
&+80, 801-=3 '38 '11%&;4-+31 '1 B0,, '1 4<0 1;0.-*-.'4-+3 +* 1.03'(-+1C -3.,%8-3= 4<0 7
.<'('.40(-G'4-+3 +* 40.<3+,+=-01 '38 4<0 4-&-3= +* &-4-='4-+3 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 Scenarlos ln whlch 8
all counLrles of Lhe world begln mlLlgaLlon lmmedlaLely, Lhere ls a slngle global carbon prlce, and all 9
key Lechnologles are avallable, have been used as a cosLeffecLlve benchmark for esLlmaLlng 10
macroeconomlc mlLlgaLlon cosLs (1able SM.2, green segmenLs). under Lhese assumpLlons, 11
mlLlgaLlon scenarlos LhaL reach aLmospherlc concenLraLlons of abouL 430ppm CC
2
eq by 2100 enLall 12
losses ln global consumpLlon-noL lncludlng beneflLs of reduced cllmaLe change as well as co 13
beneflLs and adverse sldeeffecLs of mlLlgaLlon
19
-of 1 Lo 4 (medlan: 1.7) ln 2030, 2 Lo 6 14
(medlan: 3.4) ln 2030, and 3 Lo 11 (medlan: 4.8) ln 2100 relaLlve Lo consumpLlon ln basellne 13
scenarlos LhaL grows anywhere from 300 Lo more Lhan 900 over Lhe cenLury. 1hese numbers 16
correspond Lo an annuallzed reducLlon of consumpLlon growLh by 0.04 Lo 0.14 (medlan: 0.06) 17
percenLage polnLs over Lhe cenLury relaLlve Lo annuallzed consumpLlon growLh ln Lhe basellne LhaL ls 18
beLween 1.6 and 3 per year. LsLlmaLes aL Lhe hlgh end of Lhese cosL ranges are from models LhaL 19
are relaLlvely lnflexlble Lo achleve Lhe deep emlsslons reducLlons requlred ln Lhe long run Lo meeL 20
Lhese goals and/or lnclude assumpLlons abouL markeL lmperfecLlons LhaL would ralse cosLs. under 21
Lhe absence or llmlLed avallablllLy of Lechnologles, mlLlgaLlon cosLs can lncrease subsLanLlally 22
dependlng on Lhe Lechnology consldered (1able SM.2, orange segmenL). uelaylng addlLlonal 23
mlLlgaLlon furLher lncreases mlLlgaLlon cosLs ln Lhe medlum Lo long Lerm (1able SM.2, blue 24
segmenL). Many models could noL achleve aLmospherlc concenLraLlon levels of abouL 430 ppm 23
CC
2
eq by 2100 lf addlLlonal mlLlgaLlon ls conslderably delayed or under llmlLed avallablllLy of key 26
Lechnologles, such as bloenergy, CCS, and Lhelr comblnaLlon (8LCCS). [6.3] 27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
33
36
37
38
39
40

19
1he LoLal economlc effecLs aL dlfferenL LemperaLure levels would lnclude mlLlgaLlon cosLs, cobeneflLs of
mlLlgaLlon, adverse sldeeffecLs of mlLlgaLlon, adapLaLlon cosLs and cllmaLe damages. MlLlgaLlon cosL and
cllmaLe damage esLlmaLes aL any glven LemperaLure level cannoL be compared Lo evaluaLe Lhe cosLs and
beneflLs of mlLlgaLlon. 8aLher, Lhe conslderaLlon of economlc cosLs and beneflLs of mlLlgaLlon should lnclude
Lhe reducLlon of cllmaLe damages relaLlve Lo Lhe case of unabaLed cllmaLe change.
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Table SPM.2: Global mitigation costs in cost-effective scenarios and estimated cost increases due to assumed limited availability of specific technologies and 1
delayed additional mitigation. Cost estimates shown in this table do not consider the benefits of reduced climate change as well as co-benefits and adverse 2
side-effects of mitigation. The green columns show consumption losses in the years 2030, 2050, and 2100 (green) and annualized consumption growth 3
reductions (light green) over the century in cost-effective scenarios relative to a baseline development without climate policy.
1
The orange columns show the 4
percentage increase in discounted costs
2
over the century, relative to cost-effective scenarios, in scenarios in which technology is constrained relative to 3
default technology assumptions.
3
The blue columns show the increase in mitigation costs over the periods 20302050 and 20502100, relative to scenarios 6
with immediate mitigation, due to delayed additional mitigation through 2020 or 2030.
4
These scenarios with delayed additional mitigation are grouped by 7
emission levels of less or more than 55 GtCO2eq in 2030, and two concentration ranges in 2100 (430530 ppm CO2eq and 530650 CO2eq). In all figures, 8
the median of the scenario set is shown without parentheses, the range between the 16th and 84th percentile of the scenario set is shown in the parentheses, 9
and the number of scenarios in the set is shown in square brackets.
5
[Figures TS.12, TS.13, 6.21, 6.24, 6.25, Annex II.10] 10
2+31%&;4-+3 ,+1101 -3 .+140**0.4->0 -&;,0&034'4-+3
1.03'(-+1
73.(0'10 -3 4+4', 8-1.+%3408 &-4-='4-+3 .+141
-3 1.03'(-+1 B-4< ,-&-408 '>'-,'?-,-4) +*
40.<3+,+=-01

^P -3.(0'10 -3 4+4', 8-1.+%3408 &-4-='4-+3
.+14 S9M6EQ96MMT (0,'4->0 4+ 80*'%,4
40.<3+,+=) '11%&;4-+31_
73.(0'10 -3 &-8 '38 ,+3= 40(& &-4-='4-+3
.+141 8%0 80,')08 '88-4-+3', &-4-='4-+3 %;
4+ 9MHM

^P -3.(0'10 -3 &-4-='4-+3 .+14 (0,'4->0 4+
-&&08-'40 &-4-='4-+3_

^P (08%.4-+3 -3 .+31%&;4-+3
(0,'4->0 4+ ?'10,-30_
^;0(.034'=0
;+-34 (08%.4-+3
-3 '33%',-G08
.+31%&;4-+3
=(+B4< ('40_
96MM
2+3.034('4-+3
S;;& 2N
9
0@T
9MHM 9MEM 96MM 9M6M96MM `+ 22! `%.,0'(
;<'10
+%4
Z-&-408
!+,'( a
U-38
Z-&-408
W-+
030(=)
EE I42N
9
0@ bEE I42N
9
0@
9MHMQ
9MEM
9MEMQ
96MM
9MHMQ
9MEM
9MEMQ
96MM
REM SRHMQROMT
65L S65MQH5LT
^`$ 6R_
H5R S956Qc59T R5O S95KQ665RT M5Mc SM5MRQM56RT 6HO S9KQ
9KLT
^`$ R_
L SRQ6OT
^`$ O_
c S9Q9KT
^`$ O_
cR SRRQLOT
^`$ O_ 9O S6RQEMT
^`$ HR_
6E SEQEKT RR S9QLOT
^`$ 9K_
HL S6cQO9T
EMM SROMQEHMT
65L SM5cQ956T
^`$ H9_
95L S65EQR59T R5L S95RQ6M5cT M5Mc SM5MHQM56HT
EEM SEHMQEOMT
M5c SM59Q65HT
^`$ Rc_
65L S659QH5HT H5O S659QL5HT M5MR SM5M6QM5MKT HK S6OQLOT
^`$ 66_
6H S9Q9HT
^`$ 6M_
O SEQ6ET
^`$ 6M_
6O SRQccT
^`$ 69_ H SEQ6cT
^`$ 6R_

R SRQ66T

6E SHQH9T
^`$ 6M_
6c SEQ9RT

EOMQcEM
M5H SMQM5KT
^`$ 6c_
65H SM5EQ95MT 95H S659QR5RT M5MH SM5M6QM5MET
Notes:
1
Cost-effective scenarios assume immediate mitigation in all countries and a single global carbon price, and impose no additional limitations on technology relative to 11
the models default technology assumptions.
2
Percentage increase of net present value of consumption losses in percent of baseline consumption (for scenarios from general 12
equilibrium models) and abatement costs in percent of baseline GDP (for scenarios from partial equilibrium models) for the period 20152100, discounted at 5% per year.
3
No 13
CCS: CCS is not included in these scenarios. Nuclear phase out: No addition of nuclear power plants beyond those under construction, and operation of existing plants until 14
the end of their lifetime. Limited Solar/Wind: a maximum of 20% global electricity generation from solar and wind power in any year of these scenarios. Limited Bioenergy: a 13
maximum of 100 EJ/yr modern bioenergy supply globally (modern bioenergy used for heat, power, combinations, and industry was around 18 EJ/yr in 2008 [11.13.5]). 16
4
Percentage increase of total undiscounted mitigation costs for the periods 20302050 and 20502100.
5
The range is determined by the central scenarios encompassing the 17
16th and 84th percentile of the scenario set. Only scenarios with a time horizon until 2100 are included. Some models that are included in the cost ranges for concentration 18
levels above 530 ppm CO2eq in 2100 could not produce associated scenarios for concentration levels below 530 ppm CO2eq in 2100 with assumptions about limited 19
availability of technologies or delayed additional mitigation. [Subject to final quality check and copy edit] 20
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N3,) ' ,-&-408 3%&?0( +* 14%8-01 <'>0 0V;,+(08 1.03'(-+1 4<'4 '(0 +),$ !"#$!% *-&( ()* 4+ ?(-3= 1
40&;0('4%(0 .<'3=0 ?'./ 4+ ?0,+B 65E X2 ?) 96MM (0,'4->0 4+ ;(0-38%14(-', ,0>0,1Y 4<010 1.03'(-+1 2
?(-3= '4&+1;<0(-. .+3.034('4-+31 4+ ?0,+B RHM ;;& 2N
9
0@ ?) 96MM ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 Assesslng 3
Lhls goal ls currenLly dlfflculL because no mulLlmodel sLudles have explored Lhese scenarlos. 1he 4
llmlLed number of publlshed sLudles conslsLenL wlLh Lhls goal produces scenarlos LhaL are 3
characLerlzed by (1) lmmedlaLe mlLlgaLlon acLlon, (2) Lhe rapld upscallng of Lhe full porLfollo of 6
mlLlgaLlon Lechnologles, and (3) developmenL along a lowenergy demand Lra[ecLory.
20
[6.3, 7.11] 7
#-4-='4-+3 1.03'(-+1 (0'.<-3= '?+%4 REM +( EMM ;;& 2N
9
0@ ?) 96MM 1<+B (08%.08 .+141 *+( 8
'.<-0>-3= '-( @%',-4) '38 030(=) 10.%(-4) +?D0.4->01C B-4< 1-=3-*-.'34 .+?030*-41 *+( <%&'3 <0',4<C 9
0.+1)140& -&;'.41C '38 1%**-.-03.) +* (01+%(.01 '38 (01-,-03.0 +* 4<0 030(=) 1)140&Y 4<010 10
1.03'(-+1 8-8 3+4 @%'34-*) +4<0( .+?030*-41 +( '8>0(10 1-800**0.41 ((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#)5 1hese 11
mlLlgaLlon scenarlos show lmprovemenLs ln Lerms of Lhe sufflclency of resources Lo meeL naLlonal 12
energy demand as well as Lhe reslllence of energy supply, resulLlng ln energy sysLems LhaL are less 13
vulnerable Lo prlce volaLlllLy and supply dlsrupLlons. 1he beneflLs from reduced lmpacLs Lo healLh 14
and ecosysLems assoclaLed wlLh ma[or cuLs ln alr polluLanL emlsslons (llgure SM.6) are parLlcularly 13
hlgh where currenLly leglslaLed and planned alr polluLlon conLrols are weak. 1here ls a wlde range of 16
cobeneflLs and adverse sldeeffecLs for addlLlonal ob[ecLlves oLher Lhan alr quallLy and energy 17
securlLy. Cverall, Lhe poLenLlal for cobeneflLs for energy enduse measures ouLwelgh Lhe poLenLlal 18
for adverse sldeeffecLs, whereas Lhe evldence suggesLs Lhls may noL be Lhe case for all energy 19
supply and AlCLu measures. [WClll 4.8, 3.7, 6.3.6, 6.6, 7.9, 8.7, 9.7, 10.8, 11.7, 11.13.6, 12.8, llgure 20
1S.14, 1able 6.7, 1ables 1S.3-1S.7, WCll 11.9] 21
22
Figure SPM.6. Air pollutant emission levels for black carbon (BC) and sulfur dioxide (SO
2
) in 2050 23
relative to 2005 (0=2005 levels). Baseline scenarios without additional efforts to reduce GHG 24
emissions beyond those in place today are compared to scenarios with stringent mitigation policies, 23
which are consistent with reaching atmospheric CO
2
eq concentration levels between 430 and 530 26
ppm CO
2
eq by 2100. [Figure 6.33] [Subject to final quality check and copy edit.] 27

20
ln Lhese scenarlos, Lhe cumulaLlve CC
2
emlsslons range beLween 633-813 CLCC
2
for Lhe perlod 2011-2030
and beLween 90-330 CLCC
2
for Lhe perlod 2011-2100. Clobal CC
2
eq emlsslons ln 2030 are beLween 70-93
below 2010 emlsslons, and Lhey are beLween 110-120 below 2010 emlsslons ln 2100.
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F<0(0 -1 ' B-80 ('3=0 +* ;+11-?,0 '8>0(10 1-800**0.41 '1 B0,, '1C .+?030*-41C '38 1;-,,+>0(1 *(+& 1
.,-&'40 ;+,-.) 4<'4 <'>0 3+4 ?003 B0,,@%'34-*-08 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 WheLher or noL sldeeffecLs 2
maLerlallze and Lo whaL exLenL sldeeffecLs maLerlallze wlll be case and slLespeclflc, as Lhey wlll 3
depend on local clrcumsLances and Lhe scale, scope, and pace of lmplemenLaLlon. lmporLanL 4
examples lnclude blodlverslLy conservaLlon, waLer avallablllLy, food securlLy, lncome dlsLrlbuLlon, 3
efflclency of Lhe LaxaLlon sysLem, labour supply and employmenL, urban sprawl, and Lhe 6
susLalnablllLy of Lhe growLh of developlng counLrles. [8ox 1S.11] 7
#-4-='4-+3 0**+(41 '38 '11+.-'408 .+141 >'() ?04B003 .+%34(-01 -3 &-4-='4-+3 1.03'(-+15 F<0 8
8-14(-?%4-+3 +* .+141 '.(+11 .+%34(-01 .'3 8-**0( *(+& 4<0 8-14(-?%4-+3 +* 4<0 '.4-+31 4<0&10,>01 9
("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 ln globally cosLeffecLlve scenarlos, Lhe ma[orlLy of mlLlgaLlon efforLs Lakes place ln 10
counLrles wlLh Lhe hlghesL fuLure emlsslons ln basellne scenarlos. Some sLudles explorlng parLlcular 11
efforLsharlng frameworks, under Lhe assumpLlon of a global carbon markeL, have esLlmaLed 12
subsLanLlal global flnanclal flows assoclaLed wlLh mlLlgaLlon for scenarlos leadlng Lo 2100 13
aLmospherlc concenLraLlons of abouL 430 Lo 330 ppm CC
2
eq. [8ox 3.3, 4.6, 6.3.6, 1able 6.4, llgure 14
6.9, llgure 6.27, llgure 6.28, llgure 6.29, 13.4.2.4] 13
#-4-='4-+3 ;+,-.) .+%,8 80>',%0 *+11-, *%0, '11041C '38 (08%.0 (0>03%01 *+( *+11-, *%0, 0V;+(40(1C ?%4 16
8-**0(03.01 ?04B003 (0=-+31 '38 *%0,1 0V-14 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 MosL mlLlgaLlon scenarlos are 17
assoclaLed wlLh reduced revenues from coal and oll Lrade for ma[or exporLers ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#). 1he 18
effecL of mlLlgaLlon on naLural gas exporL revenues ls more uncerLaln wlLh some sLudles showlng 19
posslble beneflLs for exporL revenues ln Lhe medlum Lerm unLll abouL 2030 ((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#). 20
1he avallablllLy of CCS would reduce Lhe adverse effecL of mlLlgaLlon on Lhe value of fossll fuel asseLs 21
((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#). [6.3.6, 6.6, 14.4.2] 22
!"#5R59 !0.4+(', '38 .(+1110.4+(', &-4-='4-+3 ;'4<B')1 '38 &0'1%(01 23
./0121314 5,)'''$6*),&! +"*"7&*")( 8&*-9&%' &(: +$&';,$' 24
73 ?'10,-30 1.03'(-+1C IJI 0&-11-+31 '(0 ;(+D0.408 4+ =(+B -3 ',, 10.4+(1C 0V.0;4 *+( 304 2N
9
23
0&-11-+31 -3 4<0 :dNZe 10.4+(
96
(5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 Lnergy supply secLor 26
emlsslons are expecLed Lo conLlnue Lo be Lhe ma[or source of CPC emlsslons, ulLlmaLely accounLlng 27
for Lhe slgnlflcanL lncreases ln lndlrecL emlsslons from elecLrlclLy use ln Lhe bulldlngs and lndusLry 28
secLors. ln basellne scenarlos, whlle nonCC
2
CPC agrlculLural emlsslons are pro[ecLed Lo lncrease, 29
neL CC
2
emlsslons from Lhe AlCLu secLor decllne over Llme, wlLh some models pro[ecLlng a neL slnk 30
Lowards Lhe end of Lhe cenLury (llgure SM.7).
22
[6.3.1.4, 6.8, llgure 1S.13] 31
73*('14(%.4%(0 80>0,+;&0341 '38 ,+3=,->08 ;(+8%.41 4<'4 ,+./ 1+.-04-01 -34+ IJI-34031->0 32
0&-11-+31 ;'4<B')1 &') ?0 8-**-.%,4 +( >0() .+14,) 4+ .<'3=0C (0-3*+(.-3= 4<0 -&;+(4'3.0 +* 0'(,) 33
'.4-+3 *+( '&?-4-+%1 &-4-='4-+3 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 1hls lockln rlsk ls compounded 34
by Lhe llfeLlme of Lhe lnfrasLrucLure, by Lhe dlfference ln emlsslons assoclaLed wlLh alLernaLlves, and 33
Lhe magnlLude of Lhe lnvesLmenL cosL. As a resulL, lockln relaLed Lo lnfrasLrucLure and spaLlal 36
plannlng ls Lhe mosL dlfflculL Lo reduce. Powever, maLerlals, producLs and lnfrasLrucLure wlLh long 37
llfeLlmes and low llfecycle emlsslons can faclllLaLe a LranslLlon Lo lowemlsslon paLhways whlle also 38
reduclng emlsslons Lhrough lower levels of maLerlal use. [3.6.3, 6.3.6.4, 9.4, 10.4, 12.3, 12.4] 39
F<0(0 '(0 14(+3= -340(80;03803.-01 -3 &-4-='4-+3 1.03'(-+1 ?04B003 4<0 ;'.0 +* -34(+8%.-3= 40
&-4-='4-+3 &0'1%(01 -3 030(=) 1%;;,) '38 030(=) 038%10 '38 80>0,+;&0341 -3 4<0 :dNZe 10.4+( 41

21
neL AlCLu CC
2
emlsslons lnclude emlsslons and removals of CC
2
from Lhe AlCLu secLor, lncludlng land
under foresLry and, ln some assessmenLs, CC
2
slnks ln agrlculLural solls.
22
A ma[orlLy of Lhe LarLh SysLem Models assessed ln WCl A83 pro[ecL a conLlnued land carbon upLake under
all 8Cs Lhrough Lo 2100, buL some models slmulaLe a land carbon loss due Lo Lhe comblned effecL of cllmaLe
change and landuse change. [WCl A83 SM.L.7, WCl 6.4]
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("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 1he dlsLrlbuLlon of Lhe mlLlgaLlon efforL across secLors ls sLrongly lnfluenced by 1
Lhe avallablllLy and performance of 8LCCS and large scale afforesLaLlon (llgure SM.7). 1hls ls 2
parLlcularly Lhe case ln scenarlos reachlng CC
2
eq concenLraLlons of abouL 430ppm by 2100. Well 3
deslgned sysLemlc and crosssecLoral mlLlgaLlon sLraLegles are more cosLeffecLlve ln cuLLlng 4
emlsslons Lhan a focus on lndlvldual Lechnologles and secLors. AL Lhe energy sysLem level Lhese 3
lnclude reducLlons ln Lhe CPC emlsslon lnLenslLy of Lhe energy supply secLor, a swlLch Lo low carbon 6
energy carrlers (lncludlng lowcarbon elecLrlclLy) and reducLlons ln energy demand ln Lhe enduse 7
secLors wlLhouL compromlslng developmenL (llgure SM.8). [6.3.3, 6.4, 6.8, 7.11, 1able 1S.2] 8
#-4-='4-+3 1.03'(-+1 (0'.<-3= '(+%38 REM ;;& 2N
9
0@ .+3.034('4-+31 ?) 96MM 1<+B ,'(=01.',0 9
=,+?', .<'3=01 -3 4<0 030(=) 1%;;,) 10.4+( (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 ln Lhese selecLed 10
scenarlos, global CC
2
emlsslons from Lhe energy supply secLor are pro[ecLed Lo decllne over Lhe nexL 11
decades and are characLerlzed by reducLlons of 90 or more below 2010 levels beLween 2040 and 12
2070. Lmlsslons ln many of Lhese scenarlos are pro[ecLed Lo decllne Lo below zero LhereafLer. [6.3.4, 13
6.8, 7.1, 7.11] 14
13
Figure SPM.7. Direct emissions of CO
2
by sector and total non-CO
2
GHGs (Kyoto gases) across 16
sectors in baseline (left panel) and mitigation scenarios that reach around 450 (430480) ppm CO
2
eq 17
with CCS (middle panel) and without CCS (right panel). The numbers at the bottom of the graphs 18
refer to the number of scenarios included in the range which differs across sectors and time due to 19
different sectoral resolution and time horizon of models. Note that many models cannot reach 450 20
ppm CO
2
eq concentration by 2100 in the absence of CCS, resulting in a low number of scenarios for 21
the right panel [Figures 6.34 and 6.35]. [Subject to final quality check and copy edit.] 22
A**-.-03.) 03<'3.0&0341 '38 ?0<'>-+%(', .<'3=01C -3 +(80( 4+ (08%.0 030(=) 80&'38 .+&;'(08 23
4+ ?'10,-30 1.03'(-+1 B-4<+%4 .+&;(+&-1-3= 80>0,+;&034C '(0 ' /0) &-4-='4-+3 14('40=) -3 24
1.03'(-+1 (0'.<-3= '4&+1;<0(-. 2N
9
0@ .+3.034('4-+31 +* '?+%4 REM +( EMM ;;& ?) 96MM (5*+$0& 23
#.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 nearLerm reducLlons ln energy demand are an lmporLanL elemenL of 26
cosLeffecLlve mlLlgaLlon sLraLegles, provlde more flexlblllLy for reduclng carbon lnLenslLy ln Lhe 27
energy supply secLor, hedge agalnsL relaLed supplyslde rlsks, avold lockln Lo carbonlnLenslve 28
lnfrasLrucLures, and are assoclaLed wlLh lmporLanL cobeneflLs. 8oLh lnLegraLed and secLoral sLudles 29
provlde slmllar esLlmaLes for energy demand reducLlons ln Lhe LransporL, bulldlngs and lndusLry 30
secLors for 2030 and 2030 (llgure SM.8). [6.3.4, 6.6, 6.8, 7.11, 8.9, 9.8, 10.10] 31
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1
Figure SPM.8. Final energy demand reduction relative to baseline (upper row) and low-carbon energy 2
carrier shares in final energy (lower row) in the transport, buildings, and industry sectors by 2030 and 3
2050 in scenarios from two different CO
2
eq concentration categories compared to sectoral studies 4
assessed in Chapters 8-10. The demand reductions shown by these scenarios do not compromise 3
development. Low-carbon energy carriers include electricity, hydrogen and liquid biofuels in transport, 6
electricity in buildings and electricity, heat, hydrogen and bioenergy in industry. The numbers at the 7
bottom of the graphs refer to the number of scenarios included in the ranges which differ across 8
sectors and time due to different sectoral resolution and time horizon of models. [Figures 6.37 and 9
6.38] [Subject to final quality check and copy edit.] 10
W0<'>-+%(C ,-*014),0 '38 .%,4%(0 <'>0 ' .+31-80('?,0 -3*,%03.0 +3 030(=) %10 '38 '11+.-'408 11
0&-11-+31C B-4< <-=< &-4-='4-+3 ;+4034-', -3 1+&0 10.4+(1C -3 ;'(4-.%,'( B<03 .+&;,0&034-3= 12
EMBARGOED
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40.<3+,+=-.', '38 14(%.4%(', .<'3=0
9H
((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 Lmlsslons can be 1
subsLanLlally lowered Lhrough changes ln consumpLlon paLLerns (e.g. moblllLy demand and mode, 2
energy use ln households, cholce of longerlasLlng producLs) and dleLary change and reducLlon ln 3
food wasLes. A number of opLlons lncludlng moneLary and nonmoneLary lncenLlves as well as 4
lnformaLlon measures may faclllLaLe behavloural changes. [6.8, 7.9, 8.3.3, 8.9, 9.2, 9.3, 9.10, 8ox 3
10.2, 10.4, 11.4, 12.4, 12.6, 12.7, 13.3, 13.3, 1able 1S.2] 6
./0121313 <($,7% ';88!% 7
73 4<0 ?'10,-30 1.03'(-+1 '1101108 -3 :\EC 8-(0.4 2N
9
0&-11-+31 *(+& 4<0 030(=) 1%;;,) 10.4+( '(0 8
;(+D0.408 4+ ',&+14 8+%?,0 +( 0>03 4(-;,0 ?) 9MEM .+&;'(08 4+ 4<0 ,0>0, +* 6R5R I42N
9
a)0'( -3 9
9M6MC %3,011 030(=) -34031-4) -&;(+>0&0341 .'3 ?0 1-=3-*-.'34,) '..0,0('408 ?0)+38 4<0 <-14+(-.', 10
80>0,+;&034 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 ln Lhe lasL decade, Lhe maln conLrlbuLors Lo 11
emlsslon growLh were a growlng energy demand and an lncrease of Lhe share of coal ln Lhe global 12
fuel mlx. 1he avallablllLy of fossll fuels alone wlll noL be sufflclenL Lo llmlL CC
2
eq concenLraLlon Lo 13
levels such as 430 ppm, 330 ppm, or 630 ppm. [6.3.4, 7.2, 7.3, llgures 6.13, SM.2, SM.7] 14
[0.'(?+3-G-3= S-505 (08%.-3= 4<0 .'(?+3 -34031-4) +*T 0,0.4(-.-4) =030('4-+3 -1 ' /0) .+&;+3034 +* 13
.+140**0.4->0 &-4-='4-+3 14('40=-01 -3 '.<-0>-3= ,+B14'?-,-G'4-+3 ,0>0,1 SRHMQEHM ;;& 2N
9
0@TY -3 16
&+14 -340=('408 &+80,,-3= 1.03'(-+1C 80.'(?+3-G'4-+3 <';;031 &+(0 (';-8,) -3 0,0.4(-.-4) 17
=030('4-+3 4<'3 -3 4<0 -38%14()C ?%-,8-3=1C '38 4('31;+(4 10.4+(1 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" 18
)65##(#2&)(llgure SM.7). ln Lhe ma[orlLy of lowsLablllzaLlon scenarlos, Lhe share of lowcarbon 19
elecLrlclLy supply (comprlslng renewable energy (8L), nuclear and CCS) lncreases from Lhe currenL 20
share of approxlmaLely 30 Lo more Lhan 80 by 2030, and fossll fuel power generaLlon wlLhouL 21
CCS ls phased ouL almosL enLlrely by 2100. [6.8, 7.11, llgures 7.14, SM.7, 1S.18] 22
!-3.0 :\RC &'3) \A 40.<3+,+=-01 <'>0 80&+314('408 1%?14'34-', ;0(*+(&'3.0 -&;(+>0&0341 '38 23
.+14 (08%.4-+31C '38 ' =(+B-3= 3%&?0( +* \A 40.<3+,+=-01 <'>0 '.<-0>08 ' ,0>0, +* &'4%(-4) 4+ 24
03'?,0 80;,+)&034 '4 1-=3-*-.'34 1.',0 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 8egardlng elecLrlclLy 23
generaLlon alone, 8L accounLed for [usL over half of Lhe new elecLrlclLygeneraLlng capaclLy added 26
globally ln 2012, led by growLh ln wlnd, hydro and solar power. Powever, many 8L Lechnologles sLlll 27
need dlrecL and/or lndlrecL supporL, lf Lhelr markeL shares are Lo be slgnlflcanLly lncreased, 8L 28
Lechnology pollcles have been successful ln drlvlng recenL growLh of 8L. Challenges for lnLegraLlng 29
8L lnLo energy sysLems and Lhe assoclaLed cosLs vary by 8L Lechnology, reglonal clrcumsLances, and 30
Lhe characLerlsLlcs of Lhe exlsLlng background energy sysLem ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( 31
)65##(#2&). [7.3.3, 7.6.1, 7.8.2, 7.12, 1able 7.1] 32
`%.,0'( 030(=) -1 ' &'4%(0 ,+BIJI 0&-11-+3 1+%(.0 +* ?'10,+'8 ;+B0(C ?%4 -41 1<'(0 +* =,+?', 33
0,0.4(-.-4) =030('4-+3 <'1 ?003 80.,-3-3= S1-3.0 6KKHT5 `%.,0'( 030(=) .+%,8 &'/0 '3 -3.(0'1-3= 34
.+34(-?%4-+3 4+ ,+B.'(?+3 030(=) 1%;;,)C ?%4 ' >'(-04) +* ?'((-0(1 '38 (-1/1 0V-14 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 33
"'6" )65##(#2&)5 1hose lnclude operaLlonal rlsks, and Lhe assoclaLed concerns, uranlum mlnlng rlsks, 36
flnanclal and regulaLory rlsks, unresolved wasLe managemenL lssues, nuclear weapon prollferaLlon 37
concerns, and adverse publlc oplnlon (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). new fuel cycles and reacLor 38
Lechnologles addresslng some of Lhese lssues are belng lnvesLlgaLed and progress ln research and 39
developmenL has been made concernlng safeLy and wasLe dlsposal. [7.3.4, 7.8, 7.9, 7.12, llgure 40
1S.19] 41
IJI 0&-11-+31 *(+& 030(=) 1%;;,) .'3 ?0 (08%.08 1-=3-*-.'34,) ?) (0;,'.-3= .%((034 B+(,8 '>0('=0 42
.+',*-(08 ;+B0( ;,'341 B-4< &+80(3C <-=<,) 0**-.-034 3'4%(', ='1 .+&?-308.).,0 ;+B0( ;,'341 +( 43
.+&?-308 <0'4 '38 ;+B0( ;,'341C ;(+>-808 4<'4 3'4%(', ='1 -1 '>'-,'?,0 '38 4<0 *%=-4->0 0&-11-+31 44
'11+.-'408 B-4< 0V4('.4-+3 '38 1%;;,) '(0 ,+B +( &-4-='408 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 ln 43

23
SLrucLural changes refer Lo sysLems LransformaLlons whereby some componenLs are elLher replaced or
poLenLlally subsLlLuLed by oLher componenLs (see WClll A83 Clossary).
EMBARGOED
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mlLlgaLlon scenarlos reachlng abouL 430 ppm CC
2
eq concenLraLlons by 2100, naLural gas power 1
generaLlon wlLhouL CCS acLs as a brldge Lechnology, wlLh deploymenL lncreaslng before peaklng and 2
falllng Lo below currenL levels by 2030 and decllnlng furLher ln Lhe second half of Lhe cenLury (5*+$0& 3
#.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). [7.3.1, 7.8, 7.9, 7.11, 7.12] 4
2'(?+3 8-+V-80 .';4%(0 '38 14+('=0 S22!T 40.<3+,+=-01 .+%,8 (08%.0 4<0 ,-*0.).,0 IJI 0&-11-+31 +* 3
*+11-, *%0, ;+B0( ;,'341 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 Whlle all componenLs of lnLegraLed 6
CCS sysLems exlsL and are ln use Loday by Lhe fossll fuel exLracLlon and reflnlng lndusLry, CCS has noL 7
yeL been applled aL scale Lo a large, operaLlonal commerclal fossll fuel power planL. CCS power 8
planLs could be seen ln Lhe markeL lf Lhls ls lncenLlvlzed by regulaLlon and/or lf Lhey become 9
compeLlLlve wlLh Lhelr unabaLed counLerparLs, lf Lhe addlLlonal lnvesLmenL and operaLlonal cosLs, 10
caused ln parL by efflclency reducLlons, are compensaLed by sufflclenLly hlgh carbon prlces (or dlrecL 11
flnanclal supporL). lor Lhe largescale fuLure deploymenL of CCS, welldeflned regulaLlons concernlng 12
shorL and longLerm responslblllLles for sLorage are needed as well as economlc lncenLlves. 8arrlers 13
Lo largescale deploymenL of CCS Lechnologles lnclude concerns abouL Lhe operaLlonal safeLy and 14
longLerm lnLegrlLy of CC
2
sLorage as well as LransporL rlsks. 1here ls, however, a growlng body of 13
llLeraLure on how Lo ensure Lhe lnLegrlLy of CC
2
wells, on Lhe poLenLlal consequences of a pressure 16
bulldup wlLhln a geologlc formaLlon caused by CC
2
sLorage (such as lnduced selsmlclLy), and on Lhe 17
poLenLlal human healLh and envlronmenLal lmpacLs from CC
2
LhaL mlgraLes ouL of Lhe prlmary 18
ln[ecLlon zone (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [7.3.3., 7.8, 7.9, 7.11, 7.12, 11.13] 19
2+&?-3-3= ?-+030(=) B-4< 22! SWA22!T +**0(1 4<0 ;(+1;0.4 +* 030(=) 1%;;,) B-4< ,'(=01.',0 304 20
30='4->0 0&-11-+31 B<-.< ;,')1 '3 -&;+(4'34 (+,0 -3 &'3) ,+B14'?-,-G'4-+3 1.03'(-+1C B<-,0 -4 21
034'-,1 .<',,03=01 '38 (-1/1 (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 1hese challenges and rlsks 22
lnclude Lhose assoclaLed wlLh Lhe upsLream largescale provlslon of Lhe blomass LhaL ls used ln Lhe 23
CCS faclllLy as well as Lhose assoclaLed wlLh Lhe CCS Lechnology lLself. [7.3.3, 7.9, 11.13] 24
./012131= <($,7% $(:;'$ '$6*),' 23
F('31;+(4 26
F<0 4('31;+(4 10.4+( '..+%3408 *+( 9LP +* *-3', 030(=) %10 '38 c5L I42N
9
8-(0.4 0&-11-+31 -3 9M6MC 27
B-4< ?'10,-30 2N
9
0&-11-+31 ;(+D0.408 4+ ';;(+V-&'40,) 8+%?,0 ?) 9MEM ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 28
(#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 1hls growLh ln CC
2
emlsslons from lncreaslng global passenger and frelghL 29
acLlvlLy could parLly offseL fuLure mlLlgaLlon measures LhaL lnclude fuel carbon and energy lnLenslLy 30
lmprovemenLs, lnfrasLrucLure developmenL, behavloural change and comprehenslve pollcy 31
lmplemenLaLlon ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#). Cverall, reducLlons ln LoLal LransporL CC
2
emlsslons of 13-40 32
compared Lo basellne growLh could be achleved ln 2030 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). 33
[llgure 1S.13, 6.8, 8.1, 8.2, 8.9, 8.10] 34
F0.<3-.', '38 ?0<'>-+%(', &-4-='4-+3 &0'1%(01 *+( ',, 4('31;+(4 &+801C ;,%1 30B -3*('14(%.4%(0 33
'38 %(?'3 (080>0,+;&034 -3>014&0341C .+%,8 (08%.0 *-3', 030(=) 80&'38 -3 9MEM ?) '(+%38 RMP 36
?0,+B 4<0 ?'10,-30C B-4< 4<0 &-4-='4-+3 ;+4034-', '1101108 4+ ?0 <-=<0( 4<'3 (0;+(408 -3 4<0 :\R 37
(5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 ro[ecLed energy efflclency and vehlcle performance 38
lmprovemenLs range from 30-30 ln 2030 relaLlve Lo 2010 dependlng on LransporL mode and 39
vehlcle Lype ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). lnLegraLed urban plannlng, LranslLorlenLed 40
developmenL, more compacL urban form LhaL supporLs cycllng and walklng, can all lead Lo modal 41
shlfLs as can, ln Lhe longer Lerm, urban redevelopmenL and lnvesLmenLs ln new lnfrasLrucLure such 42
as hlghspeed rall sysLems LhaL reduce shorLhaul alr Lravel demand ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( 43
)65##(#2&). Such mlLlgaLlon measures are challenglng, have uncerLaln ouLcomes, and could reduce 44
LransporL CPC emlsslons by 20-30 ln 2030 compared Lo basellne (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 %*: 43
)65##(#2&). [8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.3, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.9, 12.4, 12.3, llgure SM.8 Lop panel] 46
!4('40=-01 4+ (08%.0 4<0 .'(?+3 -34031-4-01 +* *%0, '38 4<0 ('40 +* (08%.-3= .'(?+3 -34031-4) '(0 47
.+314('-308 ?) .<',,03=01 '11+.-'408 B-4< 030(=) 14+('=0 '38 4<0 (0,'4->0,) ,+B 030(=) 8031-4) +* 48
EMBARGOED
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,+B.'(?+3 4('31;+(4 *%0,1 ((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#)5 lnLegraLed and secLoral sLudles broadly agree LhaL 1
opporLunlLles for swlLchlng Lo lowcarbon fuels exlsL ln Lhe near Lerm and wlll grow over Llme. 2
MeLhanebased fuels are already lncreaslng Lhelr share for road vehlcles and waLerborne crafL. 3
LlecLrlclLy produced from lowcarbon sources has nearLerm poLenLlal for elecLrlc rall and shorL Lo 4
medlumLerm poLenLlal as elecLrlc buses, llghL duLy and 2wheel road vehlcles are deployed. 3
Pydrogen fuels from lowcarbon sources consLlLuLe longer Lerm opLlons. Commerclally avallable 6
llquld and gaseous blofuels already provlde cobeneflLs LogeLher wlLh mlLlgaLlon opLlons LhaL can be 7
lncreased by Lechnology advances. 8educlng LransporL emlsslons of parLlculaLe maLLer (lncludlng 8
black carbon), Lropospherlc ozone and aerosol precursors (lncludlng nC
x
) can have human healLh 9
and mlLlgaLlon cobeneflLs ln Lhe shorL Lerm ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [8.2, 8.3, 11.13, 10
llgure 1S.20, rlghL panel] 11
F<0 .+140**0.4->03011 +* 8-**0(034 .'(?+3 (08%.4-+3 &0'1%(01 -3 4<0 4('31;+(4 10.4+( >'(-01 12
1-=3-*-.'34,) B-4< >0<-.,0 4);0 '38 4('31;+(4 &+80 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 1he levellzed cosLs of 13
conserved carbon can be very low or negaLlve for many shorLLerm behavloural measures and 14
efflclency lmprovemenLs for llghL and heavyduLy road vehlcles and waLerborne crafL. ln 2030, for 13
some elecLrlc vehlcles, alrcrafL and posslbly hlghspeed rall, levellzed cosLs could be more Lhan 16
uSu100/LCC
2
avolded (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [8.6, 8.8, 8.9, llgures 1S.21, 1S.22] 17
\0=-+3', 8-**0(03.01 -3*,%03.0 4<0 .<+-.0 +* 4('31;+(4 &-4-='4-+3 +;4-+31 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 18
lnsLlLuLlonal, legal, flnanclal and culLural barrlers consLraln lowcarbon Lechnology upLake and 19
behavloural change. LsLabllshed lnfrasLrucLure may llmlL Lhe opLlons for modal shlfL and lead Lo a 20
greaLer rellance on advanced vehlcle Lechnologles, a slowlng of growLh ln llghL duLy vehlcle demand 21
ls already evldenL ln some CLCu counLrles. lor all economles, especlally Lhose wlLh hlgh raLes of 22
urban growLh, lnvesLmenL ln publlc LransporL sysLems and lowcarbon lnfrasLrucLure can avold lock 23
ln Lo carbonlnLenslve modes. rlorlLlzlng lnfrasLrucLure for pedesLrlans and lnLegraLlng non 24
moLorlzed and LranslL servlces can creaLe economlc and soclal cobeneflLs ln all reglons ((#3'$( 23
#.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [8.4, 8.8, 8.9, 14.3, 1able 8.3] 26
#-4-='4-+3 14('40=-01C B<03 '11+.-'408 B-4< 3+3.,-&'40 ;+,-.-01 '4 ',, =+>0(3&034 ,0>0,1C .'3 <0,; 27
80.+%;,0 4('31;+(4 IJI 0&-11-+31 *(+& 0.+3+&-. =(+B4< -3 ',, (0=-+31 ((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#)5 28
1hese sLraLegles can help reduce Lravel demand, lncenLlvlse frelghL buslnesses Lo reduce Lhe carbon 29
lnLenslLy of Lhelr loglsLlcal sysLems and lnduce modal shlfLs, as well as provlde cobeneflLs lncludlng 30
lmproved access and moblllLy, beLLer healLh and safeLy, greaLer energy securlLy, and cosL and Llme 31
savlngs((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). [8.7, 8.10] 32
W%-,8-3=1 33
73 9M6MC 4<0 ?%-,8-3= 10.4+(
9R
'..+%3408 *+( '(+%38 H9P *-3', 030(=) %10 '38 O5O I42N
9
0&-11-+31C 34
-3.,%8-3= 8-(0.4 '38 -38-(0.4 0&-11-+31C B-4< 030(=) 80&'38 ;(+D0.408 4+ ';;(+V-&'40,) 8+%?,0 33
'38 2N
9
0&-11-+31 4+ -3.(0'10 ?) EMQ6EMP ?) &-8.034%() -3 ?'10,-30 1.03'(-+1 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 36
(#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 1hls energy demand growLh resulLs from lmprovemenLs ln wealLh, llfesLyle 37
change, access Lo modern energy servlces and adequaLe houslng, and urbanlsaLlon. 1here are 38
slgnlflcanL lockln rlsks assoclaLed wlLh Lhe long llfespans of bulldlngs and relaLed lnfrasLrucLure, and 39
Lhese are especlally lmporLanL ln reglons wlLh hlgh consLrucLlon raLes (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" 40
)65##(#2&). [9.4, llgure 1S.13] 41
\0.034 '8>'3.01 -3 40.<3+,+=-01C /3+B<+B '38 ;+,-.-01 ;(+>-80 +;;+(4%3-4-01 4+ 14'?-,-G0 +( 42
(08%.0 =,+?', ?%-,8-3=1 10.4+( 030(=) %10 ?) &-8.034%() (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 lor 43
new bulldlngs, Lhe adopLlon of very low energy bulldlng codes ls lmporLanL and has progressed 44
subsLanLlally slnce A84. 8eLroflLs form a key parL of Lhe mlLlgaLlon sLraLegy ln counLrles wlLh 43

24
1he bulldlng secLor covers Lhe resldenLlal, commerclal, publlc and servlces secLors, emlsslons from
consLrucLlon are accounLed for ln Lhe lndusLry secLor.
EMBARGOED
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esLabllshed bulldlng sLocks, and reducLlons of heaLlng/coollng energy use by 30-90 ln lndlvldual 1
bulldlngs have been achleved. 8ecenL large lmprovemenLs ln performance and cosLs make very low 2
energy consLrucLlon and reLroflLs economlcally aLLracLlve, someLlmes even aL neL negaLlve cosLs. 3
[9.3] 4
Z-*014),0C .%,4%(0 '38 ?0<'>-+%( 1-=3-*-.'34,) -3*,%03.0 030(=) .+31%&;4-+3 -3 ?%-,8-3=1 (%'('&#3 3
#.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 A Lhree Lo flvefold dlfference ln energy use has been shown for 6
provlslon of slmllar bulldlngrelaLed energy servlce levels ln bulldlngs. lor developed counLrles, 7
scenarlos lndlcaLe LhaL llfesLyle and behavloural changes could reduce energy demand by up Lo 20 8
ln Lhe shorL Lerm and by up Lo 30 of presenL levels by mldcenLury. ln developlng counLrles, 9
lnLegraLlng elemenLs of LradlLlonal llfesLyles lnLo bulldlng pracLlces and archlLecLure could faclllLaLe 10
Lhe provlslon of hlgh levels of energy servlces wlLh much lower energy lnpuLs Lhan basellne. [9.3] 11
#+14 &-4-='4-+3 +;4-+31 *+( ?%-,8-3=1 <'>0 .+31-80('?,0 '38 8->0(10 .+?030*-41 -3 '88-4-+3 4+ 12
030(=) .+14 1'>-3=1 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 1hese lnclude lmprovemenLs ln energy 13
securlLy, healLh (such as from cleaner woodburnlng cooksLoves), envlronmenLal ouLcomes, 14
workplace producLlvlLy, fuel poverLy reducLlons and neL employmenL galns. SLudles whlch have 13
moneLlzed cobeneflLs ofLen flnd LhaL Lhese exceed energy cosL savlngs and posslbly cllmaLe beneflLs 16
((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [9.6, 9.7, 3.6.3] 17
!4(+3= ?'((-0(1C 1%.< '1 1;,-4 -3.034->01 S05=5 403'341 '38 ?%-,80(1TC *('=&03408 &'(/041 '38 18
-3'80@%'40 '..011 4+ -3*+(&'4-+3 '38 *-3'3.-3=C <-380( 4<0 &'(/04?'108 %;4'/0 +* .+140**0.4->0 19
+;;+(4%3-4-015 8arrlers can be overcome by pollcy lnLervenLlons addresslng all sLages of Lhe bulldlng 20
and appllance llfecycles (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). [9.8, 9.10, 16, 8ox 3.10] 21
F<0 80>0,+;&034 +* ;+(4*+,-+1 +* 030(=) 0**-.-03.) ;+,-.-01 '38 4<0-( -&;,0&034'4-+3 <'1 22
'8>'3.08 .+31-80('?,) 1-3.0 :\R5 W%-,8-3= .+801 '38 ';;,-'3.0 14'38'(81C -* B0,, 801-=308 '38 23
-&;,0&03408C <'>0 ?003 '&+3= 4<0 &+14 03>-(+3&034',,) '38 .+140**0.4->0 -314(%&0341 *+( 24
0&-11-+3 (08%.4-+31 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 ln some developed counLrles Lhey have 23
conLrlbuLed Lo a sLablllzaLlon of, or reducLlon ln, LoLal energy demand for bulldlngs. SubsLanLlally 26
sLrengLhenlng Lhese codes, adopLlng Lhem ln furLher [urlsdlcLlons, and exLendlng Lhem Lo more 27
bulldlng and appllance Lypes, wlll be a key facLor ln reachlng amblLlous cllmaLe goals. [9.10, 2.6.3.3] 28
738%14() 29
73 9M6MC 4<0 -38%14() 10.4+( '..+%3408 *+( '(+%38 9OP +* *-3', 030(=) %10C '38 6H I42N
9
0&-11-+31C 30
-3.,%8-3= 8-(0.4 '38 -38-(0.4 0&-11-+31 '1 B0,, '1 ;(+.011 0&-11-+31C B-4< 0&-11-+31 ;(+D0.408 4+ 31
-3.(0'10 ?) EMQ6EMP ?) 9MEM -3 4<0 ?'10,-30 1.03'(-+1 '1101108 -3 :\EC %3,011 030(=) 0**-.-03.) 32
-&;(+>0&0341 '(0 '..0,0('408 1-=3-*-.'34,) ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 Lmlsslons from 33
lndusLry accounLed for [usL over 30 of global CPC emlsslons ln 2010 and are currenLly greaLer Lhan 34
emlsslons from elLher Lhe bulldlngs or LransporL enduse secLors. [SM.3, llgure SM.7, 10.3] 33
F<0 030(=) -34031-4) +* 4<0 -38%14() 10.4+( .+%,8 ?0 8-(0.4,) (08%.08 ?) '?+%4 9EP .+&;'(08 4+ 36
4<0 .%((034 ,0>0, 4<(+%=< 4<0 B-801.',0 %;=('8-3=C (0;,'.0&034 '38 80;,+)&034 +* ?014 '>'-,'?,0 37
40.<3+,+=-01C ;'(4-.%,'(,) -3 .+%34(-01 B<0(0 4<010 '(0 3+4 -3 %10 '38 -3 3+3030(=) -34031->0 38
-38%14(-01 ("'6" )65##(#2&9 5*+$0& #.'3#2-#)5 AddlLlonal energy lnLenslLy reducLlons of abouL 20 39
may poLenLlally be reallzed Lhrough lnnovaLlon (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). 8arrlers Lo 40
lmplemenLlng energy efflclency relaLe largely Lo lnlLlal lnvesLmenL cosLs and lack of lnformaLlon. 41
lnformaLlon programmes are a prevalenL approach for promoLlng energy efflclency, followed by 42
economlc lnsLrumenLs, regulaLory approaches and volunLary acLlons. [10.7, 10.9, 10.11] 43
7&;(+>0&0341 -3 IJI 0&-11-+3 0**-.-03.) '38 -3 4<0 0**-.-03.) +* &'40(-', %10C (0.).,-3= '38 (0 44
%10 +* &'40(-',1 '38 ;(+8%.41C '38 +>0(',, (08%.4-+31 -3 ;(+8%.4 80&'38 S05=5C 4<(+%=< ' &+(0 43
-34031->0 %10 +* ;(+8%.41T '38 10(>-.0 80&'38 .+%,8C -3 '88-4-+3 4+ 030(=) 0**-.-03.)C <0,; (08%.0 46
IJI 0&-11-+31 ?0,+B 4<0 ?'10,-30 ,0>0, -3 4<0 -38%14() 10.4+( ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 47
Many emlsslonreduclng opLlons are cosLeffecLlve, proflLable and assoclaLed wlLh mulLlple co 48
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beneflLs (beLLer envlronmenLal compllance, healLh beneflLs eLc.). ln Lhe longLerm, a shlfL Lo low 1
carbon elecLrlclLy, new lndusLrlal processes, radlcal producL lnnovaLlons (e.g. alLernaLlves Lo 2
cemenL), or CCS (e.g., Lo mlLlgaLe process emlsslons) could conLrlbuLe Lo slgnlflcanL CPC emlsslon 3
reducLlons. Lack of pollcy and experlences ln maLerlal and producL servlce efflclency are Lhe ma[or 4
barrlers. [10.4, 10.7, 10.8, 10.11] 3
2N
9
0&-11-+31 8+&-3'40 IJI 0&-11-+31 *(+& -38%14()C ?%4 4<0(0 '(0 ',1+ 1%?14'34-', &-4-='4-+3 6
+;;+(4%3-4-01 *+( 3+32N
9
='101 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 CP
4
, n
2
C and fluorlnaLed gases 7
from lndusLry accounLed for emlsslons of 0.9 CLCC
2
eq ln 2010. key mlLlgaLlon opporLunlLles lnclude, 8
e.g., Lhe reducLlon of hydrofluorocarbon emlsslons by process opLlmlzaLlon and refrlgeranL recovery, 9
recycllng and subsLlLuLlon, alLhough Lhere are barrlers. [1ables 10.2, 10.7] 10
!)140&-. ';;(+'.<01 '38 .+,,'?+('4->0 '.4->-4-01 '.(+11 .+&;'3-01 '38 10.4+(1 .'3 (08%.0 030(=) 11
'38 &'40(-', .+31%&;4-+3 '38 4<%1 IJI 0&-11-+31 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 1he 12
appllcaLlon of crosscuLLlng Lechnologles (e.g. efflclenL moLors) and measures (e.g. reduclng alr or 13
sLeam leaks) ln boLh large energy lnLenslve lndusLrles and small and medlum enLerprlses can 14
lmprove process performance and planL efflclency cosLeffecLlvely. CooperaLlon across companles 13
(e.g. ln lndusLrlal parks) and secLors could lnclude Lhe sharlng of lnfrasLrucLure, lnformaLlon, and 16
wasLe heaL uLlllzaLlon. [10.4, 10.3] 17
7&;+(4'34 +;4-+31 *+( &-4-='4-+3 -3 B'140 &'3'=0&034 '(0 B'140 (08%.4-+3C *+,,+B08 ?) (0%10C 18
(0.).,-3= '38 030(=) (0.+>0() (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 WasLe and wasLewaLer accounLed 19
for 1.3 CLCC
2
eq ln 2010. As Lhe share of recycled or reused maLerlal ls sLlll low (e.g., globally, around 20
20 of munlclpal solld wasLe ls recycled), wasLe LreaLmenL Lechnologles and recoverlng energy Lo 21
reduce demand for fossll fuels can resulL ln slgnlflcanL dlrecL emlsslon reducLlons from wasLe 22
dlsposal. [10.4, 10.14] 23
./0121312 >7,"6;!*;,$? @),$'*,% &(: A*-$, B&(: C'$ D>@ABCE 24
F<0 :dNZe 10.4+( '..+%341 *+( '?+%4 ' @%'(40( Sf6MQ69I42N
9
0@a)(T +* 304 '34<(+;+=03-. IJI 23
0&-11-+31 &'-3,) *(+& 80*+(014'4-+3C '=(-.%,4%(', 0&-11-+31 *(+& 1+-, '38 3%4(-034 &'3'=0&034 26
'38 ,->014+./ ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 MosL recenL esLlmaLes lndlcaLe a decllne ln 27
AlCLu CC
2
fluxes, largely due Lo decreaslng deforesLaLlon raLes and lncreased afforesLaLlon. 28
Powever, Lhe uncerLalnLy ln hlsLorlcal neL AlCLu emlsslons ls larger Lhan for oLher secLors, and 29
addlLlonal uncerLalnLles ln pro[ecLed basellne neL AlCLu emlsslons exlsL. noneLheless, ln Lhe fuLure, 30
neL annual basellne CC
2
emlsslons from AlCLu are pro[ecLed Lo decllne, wlLh neL emlsslons 31
poLenLlally less Lhan half Lhe 2010 level by 2030 and Lhe posslblllLy of Lhe AlCLu secLors becomlng a 32
neL CC
2
slnk before Lhe end of cenLury ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). [6.3.1.4, 11.2, llgures 33
6.3, SM.7] 34
:dNZe ;,')1 ' .034(', (+,0 *+( *++8 10.%(-4) '38 1%14'-3'?,0 80>0,+;&0345 F<0 &+14 .+140**0.4->0 33
&-4-='4-+3 +;4-+31 -3 *+(014() '(0 '**+(014'4-+3C 1%14'-3'?,0 *+(014 &'3'=0&034 '38 (08%.-3= 36
80*+(014'4-+3C B-4< ,'(=0 8-**0(03.01 -3 4<0-( (0,'4->0 -&;+(4'3.0 '.(+11 (0=-+315 73 '=(-.%,4%(0C 4<0 37
&+14 .+140**0.4->0 &-4-='4-+3 +;4-+31 '(0 .(+;,'38 &'3'=0&034C =('G-3= ,'38 &'3'=0&034C '38 38
(014+('4-+3 +* +(='3-. 1+-,1 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 1he economlc mlLlgaLlon poLenLlal 39
of supplyslde measures ls esLlmaLed Lo be 7.2 Lo 11 CLCC
2
eq/year
23
ln 2030 for mlLlgaLlon efforLs 40
conslsLenL wlLh carbon prlces
26
up Lo 100 uSu/LCC
2
eq, abouL a Lhlrd of whlch can be achleved aL a 41
<20 uSu/LCC
2
eq ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). 1here are poLenLlal barrlers Lo 42
lmplemenLaLlon of avallable mlLlgaLlon opLlons [11.7, 11.8]. uemandslde measures, such as changes 43
ln dleL and reducLlons of losses ln Lhe food supply chaln, have a slgnlflcanL, buL uncerLaln, poLenLlal 44

23
lull range of all sLudles: 0.49-11 CLCC
2
eq/year
26
ln many models LhaL are used Lo assess Lhe economlc cosLs of mlLlgaLlon, carbon prlce ls ofLen used as a
proxy Lo represenL Lhe level of efforL ln mlLlgaLlon pollcles (see WClll A83 Clossary).
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Lo reduce CPC emlsslons from food producLlon ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). LsLlmaLes 1
vary from roughly 0.76-8.6 CLCC
2
eq/yr by 2030 (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [11.4, 11.6, 2
llgure 11.14] 3
"+,-.-01 =+>0(3-3= '=(-.%,4%(', ;('.4-.01 '38 *+(014 .+310(>'4-+3 '38 &'3'=0&034 '(0 &+(0 4
0**0.4->0 B<03 -3>+,>-3= ?+4< &-4-='4-+3 '38 '8';4'4-+35 Some mlLlgaLlon opLlons ln Lhe AlCLu 3
secLor (such as soll and foresL carbon sLocks) may be vulnerable Lo cllmaLe change ((#3'$( 6
#.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). When lmplemenLed susLalnably, acLlvlLles Lo reduce emlsslons from 7
deforesLaLlon and foresL degradaLlon (8Luu+
27
ls an example deslgned Lo be susLalnable) are cosL 8
effecLlve pollcy opLlons for mlLlgaLlng cllmaLe change, wlLh poLenLlal economlc, soclal and oLher 9
envlronmenLal and adapLaLlon cobeneflLs (e.g., conservaLlon of blodlverslLy and waLer resources, 10
and reduclng soll eroslon) (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [11.3.2, 11.10] 11
W-+030(=) .'3 ;,') ' .(-4-.', (+,0 *+( &-4-='4-+3C ?%4 4<0(0 '(0 -11%01 4+ .+31-80(C 1%.< '1 4<0 12
1%14'-3'?-,-4) +* ;('.4-.01 '38 4<0 0**-.-03.) +* ?-+030(=) 1)140&1 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( 13
)65##(#2&) [11.4.4, 8ox 11.3, 11.13.6, 11.13.7]5 8arrlers Lo largescale deploymenL of bloenergy 14
lnclude concerns abouL CPC emlsslons from land, food securlLy, waLer resources, blodlverslLy 13
conservaLlon and llvellhoods. 1he sclenLlflc debaLe abouL Lhe overall cllmaLe lmpacL relaLed Lo land 16
use compeLlLlon effecLs of speclflc bloenergy paLhways remalns unresolved (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" 17
)65##(#2&). [11.4.4, 11.13] 8loenergy Lechnologles are dlverse and span a wlde range of opLlons and 18
Lechnology paLhways. Lvldence suggesLs LhaL opLlons wlLh low llfecycle emlsslons (e.g., sugar cane, 19
MlscanLhus, fasL growlng Lree specles, and susLalnable use of blomass resldues), some already 20
avallable, can reduce CPC emlsslons, ouLcomes are slLespeclflc and rely on efflclenL lnLegraLed 21
'blomassLobloenergy sysLems', and susLalnable landuse managemenL and governance. ln some 22
reglons, speclflc bloenergy opLlons, such as lmproved cooksLoves, and smallscale blogas and 23
blopower producLlon, could reduce CPC emlsslons and lmprove llvellhoods and healLh ln Lhe 24
conLexL of susLalnable developmenL ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [11.13] 23
./012131F G;+&( .$**!$+$(*'? H(I,&'*,;6*;,$ &(: .8&*"&! /!&(("(7 26
e(?'3-G'4-+3 -1 ' =,+?', 4(038 '38 -1 '11+.-'408 B-4< -3.(0'101 -3 -3.+&0 '38 <-=<0( %(?'3 -3.+&01 27
'(0 .+((0,'408 B-4< <-=<0( .+31%&;4-+3 +* 030(=) '38 IJI 0&-11-+31 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" 28
)65##(#2&)5 As of 2011, more Lhan 32 of Lhe global populaLlon llves ln urban areas. ln 2006, urban 29
areas accounLed for 67-76 of energy use and 71-76 of energyrelaLed CC
2
emlsslons. 8y 2030, 30
Lhe urban populaLlon ls expecLed Lo lncrease Lo 3.6-7.1 bllllon, or 64-69 of world populaLlon. ClLles 31
ln nonAnnex l counLrles generally have hlgher levels of energy use compared Lo Lhe naLlonal 32
average, whereas clLles ln Annex l counLrles generally have lower energy use per caplLa Lhan 33
naLlonal averages ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [12.2, 12.3] 34
F<0 30V4 4B+ 80.'801 ;(01034 ' B-38+B +* +;;+(4%3-4) *+( &-4-='4-+3 -3 %(?'3 '(0'1C '1 ' ,'(=0 33
;+(4-+3 +* 4<0 B+(,8g1 %(?'3 '(0'1 B-,, ?0 80>0,+;08 8%(-3= 4<-1 ;0(-+8 (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 "'6" 36
)65##(#2&)5 AccounLlng for Lrends ln decllnlng populaLlon denslLles, and conLlnued economlc and 37
populaLlon growLh, urban land cover ls pro[ecLed Lo expand by 36-310 beLween 2000 and 2030. 38
[12.2, 12.3, 12.4, 12.8] 39
#-4-='4-+3 +;4-+31 -3 %(?'3 '(0'1 >'() ?) %(?'3-G'4-+3 4('D0.4+(-01 '38 '(0 0V;0.408 4+ ?0 &+14 40
0**0.4->0 B<03 ;+,-.) -314(%&0341 '(0 ?%38,08 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 lnfrasLrucLure 41
and urban form are sLrongly lnLerllnked, and lock ln paLLerns of land use, LransporL cholce, houslng, 42
and behavlour. LffecLlve mlLlgaLlon sLraLegles lnvolve packages of muLually relnforclng pollcles, 43
lncludlng colocaLlng hlgh resldenLlal wlLh hlgh employmenL denslLles, achlevlng hlgh dlverslLy and 44
lnLegraLlon of land uses, lncreaslng accesslblllLy and lnvesLlng ln publlc LransporL and oLher demand 43
managemenL measures. [8.4, 12.3, 12.4, 12.3, 12.6] 46

27
See WClll A83 Clossary.
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F<0 ,'(=014 &-4-='4-+3 +;;+(4%3-4-01 B-4< (01;0.4 4+ <%&'3 1044,0&0341 '(0 -3 (';-8,) %(?'3-G-3= 1
'(0'1 B<0(0 %(?'3 *+(& '38 -3*('14(%.4%(0 '(0 3+4 ,+./08 -3C ?%4 B<0(0 4<0(0 '(0 +*403 ,-&-408 2
=+>0(3'3.0C 40.<3-.',C *-3'3.-',C '38 -314-4%4-+3', .';'.-4-01 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 1he 3
bulk of urban growLh ls expecLed ln small Lo medlumslze clLles ln developlng counLrles. 1he 4
feaslblllLy of spaLlal plannlng lnsLrumenLs for cllmaLe change mlLlgaLlon ls hlghly dependenL on a 3
clLy's flnanclal and governance capablllLy. [12.6, 12.7] 6
F<+%1'381 +* .-4-01 '(0 %380(4'/-3= .,-&'40 '.4-+3 ;,'31C ?%4 4<0-( '==(0='40 -&;'.4 +3 %(?'3 7
0&-11-+31 -1 %3.0(4'-3 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 1here has been llLLle sysLemaLlc 8
assessmenL on Lhelr lmplemenLaLlon, Lhe exLenL Lo whlch emlsslon reducLlon LargeLs are belng 9
achleved, or emlsslons reduced. CurrenL cllmaLe acLlon plans focus largely on energy efflclency. 10
lewer cllmaLe acLlon plans conslder landuse plannlng sLraLegles and crosssecLoral measures Lo 11
reduce sprawl and promoLe LranslLorlenLed developmenL
28
. [12.6, 12.7, 12.9] 12
!%..011*%, -&;,0&034'4-+3 +* %(?'31.',0 .,-&'40 .<'3=0 &-4-='4-+3 14('40=-01 .'3 ;(+>-80 .+ 13
?030*-41 (5*+$0& #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 urban areas LhroughouL Lhe world conLlnue Lo sLruggle 14
wlLh challenges, lncludlng ensurlng access Lo energy, llmlLlng alr and waLer polluLlon, and 13
malnLalnlng employmenL opporLunlLles and compeLlLlveness. AcLlon on urbanscale mlLlgaLlon ofLen 16
depends on Lhe ablllLy Lo relaLe cllmaLe change mlLlgaLlon efforLs Lo local cobeneflLs (5*+$0& 17
#.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). [12.3, 12.6, 12.7, 12.8] 18
!"#5E #-4-='4-+3 ;+,-.-01 '38 -314-4%4-+31 19
!"#5E56 !0.4+(', '38 3'4-+3', ;+,-.-01 20
!%?14'34-', (08%.4-+31 -3 0&-11-+31 B+%,8 (0@%-(0 ,'(=0 .<'3=01 -3 -3>014&034 ;'440(315 MlLlgaLlon 21
scenarlos ln whlch pollcles sLablllze aLmospherlc concenLraLlons (wlLhouL overshooL) ln Lhe range 22
from 430 Lo 330 ppm CC
2
eq by 2100 lead Lo subsLanLlal shlfLs ln annual lnvesLmenL flows durlng Lhe 23
perlod 2010-2029 compared Lo basellne scenarlos (llgure SM.9). Cver Lhe nexL Lwo decades (2010 24
Lo 2029), annual lnvesLmenL ln convenLlonal fossll fuel Lechnologles assoclaLed wlLh Lhe elecLrlclLy 23
supply secLor ls pro[ecLed Lo decllne by abouL uSu 30 (2-166) bllllon (medlan: 20 compared Lo 26
2010) whlle annual lnvesLmenL ln lowcarbon elecLrlclLy supply (l.e., renewables, nuclear and 27
elecLrlclLy generaLlon wlLh CCS) ls pro[ecLed Lo rlse by abouL uSu 147 (31-360) bllllon (medlan: 28
+100 compared Lo 2010) (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). lor comparlson, global LoLal 29
annual lnvesLmenL ln Lhe energy sysLem ls presenLly abouL uSu 1200 bllllon. ln addlLlon, annual 30
lncremenLal energy efflclency lnvesLmenLs ln LransporL, bulldlngs and lndusLry ls pro[ecLed Lo 31
lncrease by abouL uSu 336 (1-641) bllllon (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&), frequenLly 32
lnvolvlng modernlzaLlon of exlsLlng equlpmenL. [13.11, 16.2.2] 33
F<0(0 -1 3+ B-80,) '=(008 80*-3-4-+3 +* B<'4 .+314-4%401 .,-&'40 *-3'3.0C ?%4 014-&'401 +* 4<0 34
*-3'3.-', *,+B1 '11+.-'408 B-4< .,-&'40 .<'3=0 &-4-='4-+3 '38 '8';4'4-+3 '(0 '>'-,'?,05 ubllshed 33
assessmenLs of all currenL annual flnanclal flows whose expecLed effecL ls Lo reduce neL CPC 36
emlsslons and/or Lo enhance reslllence Lo cllmaLe change and cllmaLe varlablllLy show uSu 343 Lo 37
383 bllllon per year globally ((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#) [8ox 1S.14]. MosL of Lhls goes Lo mlLlgaLlon. CuL of 38
Lhls, LoLal publlc cllmaLe flnance LhaL flowed Lo developlng counLrles ls esLlmaLed Lo be beLween uSu 39
33 Lo 49 bllllon/yr ln 2011 and 2012 ((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#). LsLlmaLes of lnLernaLlonal prlvaLe cllmaLe 40
flnance flowlng Lo developlng counLrles range from uSu 10 Lo 72 bllllon/yr lncludlng forelgn dlrecL 41
lnvesLmenL as equlLy and loans ln Lhe range of uSu 10 Lo 37 bllllon/yr over Lhe perlod of 2008-2011 42
((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#). [16.2.2] 43
44

28
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1
Figure SPM.9. Change in annual investment flows from the average baseline level over the next two 2
decades (2010 to 2029) for mitigation scenarios that stabilize concentrations within the range of 3
approximately 430530 ppm CO
2
eq by 2100. Investment changes are based on a limited number of 4
model studies and model comparisons. Total electricity generation (leftmost column) is the sum of 3
renewables, nuclear, power plants with CCS and fossil power plants without CCS. The vertical bars 6
indicate the range between minimum and maximum estimate; the horizontal bar indicates the median. 7
Proximity to this median value does not imply higher likelihood because of the different degree of 8
aggregation of model results, the low number of studies available and different assumptions in the 9
different studies considered. The numbers in the bottom row show the total number of studies in the 10
literature used for the assessment. This underscores that investment needs are still an evolving area 11
of research that relatively few studies have examined. [Figure 16.3] [Subject to final quality check and 12
copy edit] 13
F<0(0 <'1 ?003 ' .+31-80('?,0 -3.(0'10 -3 3'4-+3', '38 1%?3'4-+3', &-4-='4-+3 ;,'31 '38 14
14('40=-01 1-3.0 :\R5 ln 2012, 67 of global CPC emlsslons were sub[ecL Lo naLlonal leglslaLlon or 13
sLraLegles versus 43 ln 2007. Powever, Lhere has noL yeL been a subsLanLlal devlaLlon ln global 16
emlsslons from Lhe pasL Lrend [llgure 1.3c]. 1hese plans and sLraLegles are ln Lhelr early sLages of 17
developmenL and lmplemenLaLlon ln many counLrles, maklng lL dlfflculL Lo assess Lhelr aggregaLe 18
lmpacL on fuLure global emlsslons ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). [14.3.4, 14.3.3, 13.1, 13.2] 19
!-3.0 :\RC 4<0(0 <'1 ?003 '3 -3.(0'108 *+.%1 +3 ;+,-.-01 801-=308 4+ -340=('40 &%,4-;,0 +?D0.4->01C 20
-3.(0'10 .+?030*-41 '38 (08%.0 '8>0(10 1-800**0.41 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 CovernmenLs ofLen 21
expllclLly reference cobeneflLs ln cllmaLe and secLoral plans and sLraLegles. 1he sclenLlflc llLeraLure 22
has soughL Lo assess Lhe slze of cobeneflLs (see SecLlon SM.4.1) and Lhe greaLer pollLlcal feaslblllLy 23
and durablllLy of pollcles LhaL have large cobeneflLs and small adverse sldeeffecLs. [4.8, 3.7, 6.6, 24
13.2, 13.2] uesplLe Lhe growlng aLLenLlon ln pollcymaklng and Lhe sclenLlflc llLeraLure slnce A84, Lhe 23
analyLlcal and emplrlcal underplnnlngs for undersLandlng many of Lhe lnLeracLlve effecLs are under 26
developed [1.2, 3.6.3, 4.2, 4.8, 3.7, 6.6]. 27
EMBARGOED
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!0.4+(1;0.-*-. ;+,-.-01 <'>0 ?003 &+(0 B-80,) %108 4<'3 0.+3+&)B-80 ;+,-.-01 ((#3'$( 1
#.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 AlLhough mosL economlc Lheory suggesLs LhaL economywlde pollcles for 2
Lhe slngular ob[ecLlve of mlLlgaLlon would be more cosLeffecLlve Lhan secLorspeclflc pollcles, slnce 3
A84 a growlng number of sLudles has demonsLraLed LhaL admlnlsLraLlve and pollLlcal barrlers may 4
make economywlde pollcles harder Lo deslgn and lmplemenL Lhan secLorspeclflc pollcles. 1he laLLer 3
may be beLLer sulLed Lo address barrlers or markeL fallures speclflc Lo cerLaln secLors, and may be 6
bundled ln packages of complemenLary pollcles. [6.3.6.3, 8.10, 9.10, 10.10, 13.2, 13.3, 13.8, 13.9] 7
\0=%,'4+() ';;(+'.<01 '38 -3*+(&'4-+3 &0'1%(01 '(0 B-80,) %108C '38 '(0 +*403 03>-(+3&034',,) 8
0**0.4->0 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 Lxamples of regulaLory approaches lnclude energy 9
efflclency sLandards, examples of lnformaLlon programmes lnclude labelllng programmes LhaL can 10
help consumers make beLLerlnformed declslons. Whlle such approaches have ofLen been found Lo 11
have a neL soclal beneflL, Lhe sclenLlflc llLeraLure ls dlvlded on Lhe exLenL Lo whlch such pollcles can 12
be lmplemenLed wlLh negaLlve prlvaLe cosLs Lo flrms and lndlvlduals. [8ox 3.10, 13.3.3, 13.3.6] 1here 13
ls general agreemenL LhaL rebound effecLs exlsL, whereby hlgher efflclency can lead Lo lower energy 14
prlces and greaLer consumpLlon, buL Lhere ls %*: )65##(#2& ln Lhe llLeraLure on Lhe magnlLude 13
[3.9.3, 3.7.2, 14.4.2, 13.3.4]. 16
!-3.0 :\RC .'; '38 4('80 1)140&1 *+( IJI1 <'>0 ?003 014'?,-1<08 -3 ' 3%&?0( +* .+%34(-01 '38 17
(0=-+315 F<0-( 1<+(4(%3 03>-(+3&034', 0**0.4 <'1 ?003 ,-&-408 '1 ' (01%,4 +* ,++10 .';1 +( .';1 18
4<'4 <'>0 3+4 ;(+>08 4+ ?0 .+314('-3-3= (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 1hls was relaLed Lo 19
facLors such as Lhe flnanclal and economlc crlsls LhaL reduced energy demand, new energy sources, 20
lnLeracLlons wlLh oLher pollcles, and regulaLory uncerLalnLy. ln prlnclple, a cap and Lrade sysLem can 21
achleve mlLlgaLlon ln a cosLeffecLlve way, lLs lmplemenLaLlon depends on naLlonal clrcumsLances. 22
1hough earller programmes relled almosL excluslvely on grandfaLherlng (free allocaLlon of permlLs), 23
aucLlonlng permlLs ls lncreaslngly applled. lf allowances are aucLloned, revenues can be used Lo 24
address oLher lnvesLmenLs wlLh a hlgh soclal reLurn, and/or reduce Lhe Lax and debL burden. [14.4.2, 23
13.3.3] 26
73 1+&0 .+%34(-01C 4'V?'108 ;+,-.-01 1;0.-*-.',,) '-&08 '4 (08%.-3= IJI 0&-11-+31Q',+3=1-80 27
40.<3+,+=) '38 +4<0( ;+,-.-01Q<'>0 <0,;08 4+ B0'/03 4<0 ,-3/ ?04B003 IJI 0&-11-+31 '38 I[" 28
("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 ln a large group of counLrles, fuel Laxes (alLhough noL necessarlly deslgned for Lhe 29
purpose of mlLlgaLlon) have effecLs LhaL are akln Lo secLoral carbon Laxes [1able 13.2]. 1he demand 30
reducLlon ln LransporL fuel assoclaLed wlLh a 1 prlce lncrease ls 0.6 Lo 0.8 ln Lhe long run, 31
alLhough Lhe shorLrun response ls much smaller [13.3.2]. ln some counLrles revenues are used Lo 32
reduce oLher Laxes and/or Lo provlde Lransfers Lo lowlncome groups. 1hls lllusLraLes Lhe general 33
prlnclple LhaL mlLlgaLlon pollcles LhaL ralse governmenL revenue generally have lower soclal cosLs 34
Lhan approaches whlch do noL. Whlle lL has prevlously been assumed LhaL fuel Laxes ln Lhe LransporL 33
secLor are regresslve, Lhere have been a number of oLher sLudles slnce A84 LhaL have shown Lhem Lo 36
be progresslve, parLlcularly ln developlng counLrles ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). [3.6.3, 37
14.4.2, 13.3.2] 38
F<0 (08%.4-+3 +* 1%?1-8-01 *+( IJI(0,'408 '.4->-4-01 -3 >'(-+%1 10.4+(1 .'3 '.<-0>0 0&-11-+3 39
(08%.4-+31C 80;038-3= +3 4<0 1+.-', '38 0.+3+&-. .+340V4 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 Whlle subsldles can 40
affecL emlsslons ln many secLors, mosL of Lhe recenL llLeraLure has focused on subsldles ln fossll 41
fuels. Slnce A84 a small buL growlng llLeraLure based on economywlde models has pro[ecLed LhaL 42
compleLe removal of subsldles Lo fossll fuels ln all counLrles could resulL ln reducLlons ln global 43
aggregaLe emlsslons by mldcenLury ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&) [7.12, 13.13, 14.3.2, 44
13.3.2]. SLudles vary ln meLhodology, Lhe Lype and deflnlLlon of subsldles and Lhe Llme frame for 43
phase ouL consldered. ln parLlcular, Lhe sLudles assess Lhe lmpacLs of compleLe removal of all fossll 46
fuel subsldles wlLhouL seeklng Lo assess whlch subsldles are wasLeful and lnefflclenL, keeplng ln mlnd 47
naLlonal clrcumsLances. AlLhough pollLlcal economy barrlers are subsLanLlal, some counLrles have 48
reformed Lhelr Lax and budgeL sysLems Lo reduce fuel subsldles. 1o help reduce posslble adverse 49
effecLs on lower lncome groups who ofLen spend a large fracLlon of Lhelr lncome on energy servlces, 30
EMBARGOED
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many governmenLs have uLlllzed lumpsum cash Lransfers or oLher mechanlsms LargeLed on Lhe 1
poor. [13.3.2] 2
7340('.4-+31 ?04B003 +( '&+3= &-4-='4-+3 ;+,-.-01 &') ?0 1)30(=-14-. +( &') <'>0 3+ '88-4->0 3
0**0.4 +3 (08%.-3= 0&-11-+31 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&)5 lor lnsLance, a carbon Lax can 4
have an addlLlve envlronmenLal effecL Lo pollcles such as subsldles for Lhe supply of 8L. 8y conLrasL, 3
lf a cap and Lrade sysLem has a blndlng cap (sufflclenLly sLrlngenL Lo affecL emlsslonrelaLed 6
declslons), Lhen oLher pollcles such as 8L subsldles have no furLher lmpacL on reduclng emlsslons 7
wlLhln Lhe Llme perlod LhaL Lhe cap applles (alLhough Lhey may affecL cosLs and posslbly Lhe vlablllLy 8
of more sLrlngenL fuLure LargeLs) ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" )65##(#2&). ln elLher case, addlLlonal 9
pollcles may be needed Lo address markeL fallures relaLlng Lo lnnovaLlon and Lechnology dlffuslon. 10
[13.7] 11
!+&0 &-4-='4-+3 ;+,-.-01 ('-10 4<0 ;(-.01 *+( 1+&0 030(=) 10(>-.01 '38 .+%,8 <'&;0( 4<0 '?-,-4) +* 12
1+.-04-01 4+ 0V;'38 '..011 4+ &+80(3 030(=) 10(>-.01 4+ %380(10(>08 ;+;%,'4-+31 (%*: -*2/'3#2-#)5 13
F<010 ;+4034-', '8>0(10 1-800**0.41 .'3 ?0 '>+-808 B-4< 4<0 '8+;4-+3 +* .+&;,0&034'() ;+,-.-01 14
((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#)5 MosL noLably, abouL 1.3 bllllon people worldwlde do noL have access Lo 13
elecLrlclLy and abouL 3 bllllon are dependenL on LradlLlonal solld fuels for cooklng and heaLlng wlLh 16
severe adverse effecLs on healLh, ecosysLems and developmenL. rovldlng access Lo modern energy 17
servlces ls an lmporLanL susLalnable developmenL ob[ecLlve. 1he cosLs of achlevlng nearly unlversal 18
access Lo elecLrlclLy and clean fuels for cooklng and heaLlng are pro[ecLed Lo be beLween uSu 72 Lo 19
93 bllllon per year unLll 2030 wlLh mlnlmal effecLs on CPC emlsslons (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( 20
)65##(#2&). A LranslLlon away from Lhe use of LradlLlonal blomass
29
and Lhe more efflclenL 21
combusLlon of solld fuels reduce alr polluLanL emlsslons, such as sulfur dloxlde (SC
2
), nlLrogen oxldes 22
(nC
x
), carbon monoxlde (CC), and black carbon, and Lhus yleld large healLh beneflLs ("'6" 23
-*2/'3#2-#). [4.3, 6.6, 7.9, 9.3, 9.7, 11.13.6, 16.8] 24
F0.<3+,+=) ;+,-.) .+&;,0&0341 +4<0( &-4-='4-+3 ;+,-.-01 ("'6" -*2/'3#2-#)5 1echnology pollcy 23
lncludes Lechnologypush (e.g. publlcly funded 8&u) and demandpull (e.g. governmenLal 26
procuremenL programmes). Such pollcles address markeL fallures relaLed Lo lnnovaLlon and 27
Lechnology dlffuslon. [3.11, 13.6] 1echnology supporL pollcles have promoLed subsLanLlal lnnovaLlon 28
and dlffuslon of new Lechnologles, buL Lhe cosLeffecLlveness of such pollcles ls ofLen dlfflculL Lo 29
assess [2.6.3, 7.12, 9.10]. neverLheless, program evaluaLlon daLa can provlde emplrlcal evldence on 30
Lhe relaLlve effecLlveness of dlfferenL pollcles and can asslsL wlLh pollcy deslgn [13.6.3]. 31
73 &'3) .+%34(-01C 4<0 ;(->'40 10.4+( ;,')1 .034(', (+,01 -3 4<0 ;(+.01101 4<'4 ,0'8 4+ 0&-11-+31 '1 32
B0,, '1 4+ &-4-='4-+35 U-4<-3 ';;(+;(-'40 03'?,-3= 03>-(+3&0341C 4<0 ;(->'40 10.4+(C ',+3= B-4< 33
4<0 ;%?,-. 10.4+(C .'3 ;,') '3 -&;+(4'34 (+,0 -3 *-3'3.-3= &-4-='4-+3 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 "'6" 34
)65##(#2&)5 1he share of LoLal mlLlgaLlon flnance from Lhe prlvaLe secLor, acknowledglng daLa 33
llmlLaLlons, ls esLlmaLed Lo be on average beLween LwoLhlrds and LhreefourLhs on Lhe global level 36
(2010-2012) (%'('&#3 #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&). ln many counLrles, publlc flnance lnLervenLlons 37
by governmenLs and naLlonal and lnLernaLlonal developmenL banks encourage cllmaLe lnvesLmenLs 38
by Lhe prlvaLe secLor [16.2.1] and provlde flnance where prlvaLe secLor lnvesLmenL ls llmlLed. 1he 39
quallLy of a counLry's enabllng envlronmenL lncludes Lhe effecLlveness of lLs lnsLlLuLlons, regulaLlons 40
and guldellnes regardlng Lhe prlvaLe secLor, securlLy of properLy rlghLs, credlblllLy of pollcles and 41
oLher facLors LhaL have a subsLanLlal lmpacL on wheLher prlvaLe flrms lnvesL ln new Lechnologles and 42
lnfrasLrucLures [16.3]. uedlcaLed pollcy lnsLrumenLs, for example, credlL lnsurance, power purchase 43
agreemenLs and feedln Larlffs, concesslonal flnance or rebaLes, provlde an lncenLlve for lnvesLmenL 44
by lowerlng rlsks for prlvaLe acLors [16.4]. 43

29
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!"#5E59 7340(3'4-+3', .++;0('4-+3 1
F<0 e3-408 `'4-+31 d('&0B+(/ 2+3>034-+3 +3 2,-&'40 2<'3=0 Se`d222T -1 4<0 &'-3 &%,4-,'40(', 2
*+(%& *+.%108 +3 '88(011-3= .,-&'40 .<'3=0C B-4< 30'(,) %3->0(1', ;'(4-.-;'4-+35 CLher lnsLlLuLlons 3
organlzed aL dlfferenL levels of governance have resulLed ln dlverslfylng lnLernaLlonal cllmaLe change 4
cooperaLlon. [13.3.1, 13.4.1.4, 13.3] 3
AV-14-3= '38 ;(+;+108 -340(3'4-+3', .,-&'40 .<'3=0 .++;0('4-+3 '(('3=0&0341 >'() -3 4<0-( *+.%1 6
'38 80=(00 +* .034(',-G'4-+3 '38 .++(8-3'4-+35 1hey span: mulLllaLeral agreemenLs, harmonlzed 7
naLlonal pollcles and decenLrallzed buL coordlnaLed naLlonal pollcles, as well as reglonal and 8
reglonallycoordlnaLed pollcles. [llgure 1S.37, 13.4, 13.13.2, 14.4] 9
F<0 h)+4+ "(+4+.+, +**0(1 ,011+31 4+B'(81 '.<-0>-3= 4<0 %,4-&'40 +?D0.4->0 +* 4<0 e`d222C 10
;'(4-.%,'(,) B-4< (01;0.4 4+ ;'(4-.-;'4-+3C -&;,0&034'4-+3C *,0V-?-,-4) &0.<'3-1&1C '38 11
03>-(+3&034', 0**0.4->03011 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 %*: )65##(#2&)5 [3.2, 13.7.2, 13.13.1.1, 13.13.1.2, 12
14.3.7.1, 1able 1S.9] 13
e`d222 '.4->-4-01 1-3.0 9MML <'>0 ,08 4+ '3 -3.(0'1-3= 3%&?0( +* -314-4%4-+31 '38 +4<0( 14
'(('3=0&0341 *+( -340(3'4-+3', .,-&'40 .<'3=0 .++;0('4-+35 [13.3.1.1, 13.13.1.3, 16.2.1.1] 13
"+,-.) ,-3/'=01 '&+3= (0=-+3',C 3'4-+3',C '38 1%?3'4-+3', .,-&'40 ;+,-.-01 +**0( ;+4034-', .,-&'40 16
.<'3=0 &-4-='4-+3 '38 '8';4'4-+3 ?030*-41 ((#3'$( #.'3#2-#9 (#3'$( )65##(#2&)5 Llnkages can be 17
esLabllshed beLween naLlonal pollcles, varlous lnsLrumenLs, and Lhrough reglonal cooperaLlon. 18
[13.3.1, 13.3.1.3, 13.3.3, 14.3] 19
i'(-+%1 (0=-+3', -3-4-'4->01 ?04B003 4<0 3'4-+3', '38 =,+?', 1.',01 '(0 0-4<0( ?0-3= 80>0,+;08 +( 20
-&;,0&03408C ?%4 4<0-( -&;'.4 +3 =,+?', &-4-='4-+3 <'1 ?003 ,-&-408 4+ 8'40 ((#3'$( -*2/'3#2-#)5 21
Many cllmaLe pollcles can be more effecLlve lf lmplemenLed across geographlcal reglons. [1able 1S.9, 22
13.13, 14.4, 14.3] 23
EMBARGOED
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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014

Mitigation of Climate Change

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