The weekly briefing | 28 April 2014

Political and security risk updates

Africa: South Sudan releases rebel leaders in atte pt to end ci!il "ar# Americas: $eturn of Bogot%&s bid# Asia and Pacific: )S president sheds light on strategic interests in the Asia(Pacific during regional tour# Europe: *+ to issue further sanctions against $ussia follo"ing continued aggression in )kraine# Middle East: Peace talks bet"een ,srael and Palestinian Authority co e to halt follo"ing reconciliation agree ent bet"een -atah and .a as# Polar regions: $ussian president holds special eeting on Arctic policy# ayor threatens 'olo bian president&s re(election

Africa
South Sudan releases rebel leaders in attempt to end civil war ,n a bid to o!e to"ards negotiations "ith rebel forces/ the South Sudanese

go!ern ent has freed four for er senior politicians and rebel leaders "ho "ere accused of atte pting a coup on 10 1ece ber 2012# 3he alleged coup triggered South Sudan&s ci!il "ar/ "hich has clai ed the li!es of thousands of ci!ilians# A court order/ issued on 20 April/ stated that the charges "ere being dropped in a bid to pro ote peace and reconciliation follo"ing four onths of fighting "ithin the inister 7a;ak country# 3he four detainees "ere e4(secretary general of the Sudan People5s 6iberation 7o!e ent 8SP679/ Pagan A u : for er defence national security 15Agoot: for er a bassador to the )nited States <=ekiel 6ol *atkuoth and e4( inister Oyai 1eng A;ak# 3he charges against for er !ice president and principal rebel leader $iek 7achar re ain in place# >ith pre!ious atte pts at peace talks ha!ing failed/ this latest go!ern ent "illingness to negotiations to end the !iolence bet"een ?iir&s troops# 3he i prison ent had been a o!e is seen as

ake co pro ises in order to pa!e the "ay for future ilitia loyal to 7achar and President Sal!a a;or obstacle in the "ay of peace talks/ o!e to"ards

"hile 7achar/ "ho fled South Sudan5s capital/ @uba/ in 1ece ber/ continues to lead the rebellion against forces loyal to the president# 3he "illingness to negotiations can be linked by the threat of )A sanctions and an e4pression of anger in the "ake of the killing of hundreds in Bentiu and an attack on a )A base in Bor last "eek#

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>hile rebel fighters ha!e been bla ed for the Bentiu !iolence in "hich hundreds are reported to ha!e been assacred/ both sides in conflict face international criticis for the "orsening security and hu anitarian situation in South Sudan# ,nternational obser!ers ha!e reported "ar cri es and atrocities/ as ethnic loyalties entangled in a political conflict further co plicate the situation# >ith thousands killed and ore than a illion ci!ilians displaced/ the )A is increasingly "arnings of the risk of fa ine# 7ost recently/ fighting is intensifying in the north of the country/ "ith rebels ad!ancing to"ards strategic oil fields# !ther developments 1"# $igerian schoolgirls remain missing at the hands of %oko &aram after being abducted from a remote boarding school in 'hibok( %orno State( on 1) April* Although o!er 40 of the kidnapped students ha!e since escaped fro their captors/ Aigerian security ser!ices and independent search efforts

by groups of relati!es in the densely(forested area ha!e been unable to locate any of those "ho re ain in capti!e or any sign of rebels# 3he security forces5 failure has been particularly e barrassing to the go!ern ent in the conte4t of its continued efforts to ste the Boko .ara (led uprising/ and criticis is ounting o!er the e4tended state of e ergency in three states in the northeast yielding fe" results# +eneral Amadou Sanogo( the leader of the ,1 coup in Mali( could face the death penalty after the 7alian authorities changed the charge fro paratroopers to the charge of conspiracy to close to the for er that of in!ol!e ent in the kidnapping of do=ens of urder# 3he change co es after the disco!ery of ass gra!es

containing around three do=en bodies of soldiers loyal to o!erthro"n President A adou 3ou ani 3oure ilitary go!ern ent headBuarters near ?ati/ north of Ba ako# Sanogo has been under arrest since Ao!e ber/ but is no" charged "ith co plicity to assassination# -ollo"ing Sanogo5s coup/ northern 7ali fell to radical groups/ triggering a -rench(led inter!ention in its for er colony# A trial of Sanogo and other leading of the coup# -ighting between -rench forces in the 'entral African .epublic /'A.0 and a 'hristian militia has claimed the lives of several unarmed civilians after !iolence erupted last "eek bet"een the 7usli ilitia and ilitary figures is part of 7alian President ,brahi Boubacar ?eita5s strategy to i pro!e ci!ilian control o!er the ar y/ "hich is accused of e4cessi!e !iolence and torture in the after ath

rebels/ pro pting -rench soldiers to inter!ene# 7ost 7usli s ha!e fled 'A$5s capital/ Bangui/ since "estern 'A$/ "ith increasing !iolence bet"een the t"o co unities# <arlier in April/ the Septe ber

the SClCka rebels lost control of it in @anuary# ,nternational agencies ha!e since "arned of a cleansing of 7usli 5s fro )A Security 'ouncil authorised a peacekeeping SClCka ha!e turned to calling for secession# !n the radar Spain is to increase its security measures at the border between Morocco and its 'euta and Melilla territories in order to co bat illegal i igration# ission of 12/000 troops to be deployed fro

this year/ responding to the failed -rench and African atte pts to stabilise the situation# 7ean"hile/ the

The 1$ Security 'ouncil is e2pected to renew sanctions against 'ote d34voire( "ith the *roup of <4perts5 ission ending on 20 April#

1S Secretary of State 5ohn 6erry will travel to Ethiopia( the 7emocratic .epublic of 'ongo and Angola to discuss the )S partnership "ith the African )nion for peace and stabilisation issions across the region# Open Briefing |

A ericas
.eturn of %ogot9:s mayor threatens 'olombian president:s re;election bid On 22 April/ 'olo bia&s centre(right president/ @uan 7anuel Santos/ signed a decree to reinstate the deposed left("ing a;or of Bogot%/ *usta!o Petro# Santos initially re o!ed the ayor fro office on 18 7arch follo"ing a local court ruling# 3he ruling follo"ed a ;udicial suit filed against Petro last 1ece ber by inspector(*eneral Ale;andro OrdDEe= o!er the alleged resulting in his re o!al fro Bogot%&s is anage ent of the capital&s rubbish(collection holding any public office/ arches "ere ission on .u an $ights ser!ice in 2012# 'onseBuently/ Petro "as sanctioned "ith a 10(year ban fro

ayorship# 7any criticised the harsh court ruling/ and

held throughout the country calling for Petro&s return# 3he ,nter(A erican 'o

8,A'.$9/ a binding regional court/ ordered the suspension of sanctions against Petro# On 22 April/ the Superior 3ribunal of Bogot% ruled that the go!ern ent had !iolated the country&s la"s by disregarding the ,A'.$ ;udge ent/ and as such/ Santos "as obliged to reinstate Petro to his pre!iously(held position# Santos&s re o!al of Petro has been depicted as a political presidential elections on 20 7ay# By ousting Petro fro the current labour greatest anoeu!re ahead of the first round of ayorship and appointing $afael Pardo/ ayor/ Santos had dra atically

Bogota&s

inister and loyal ally of the president/ as interi

increased his hold on po"er F bolstering his election ca paign/ and gaining control o!er the country&s etropolitan district# .o"e!er/ the recent ruling has put his plans in ;eopardy# ,n fact/ Petro has e erged as a leading figure a ong the country&s left("ing/ and is entering into direct co petition "ith Santos by dra"ing the sy pathy of the centre(left electorate# Santos&s struggle to consolidate his political base has been further e4acerbated by his bitter ri!alry "ith the for er president/ Gl!aro )ribe# ,n the after ath of the 7arch legislati!e elections/ )ribe has taken the lead of a right("ing opposition coalition that notably opposes the ongoing peace process "ith the $e!olutionary Ar ed -orces of 'olo bia 8-A$'9/ launched by the Santos& ad inistration at the end of 2012# Santos&s re!ersal in the case of Petro is likely to play into the hands of his centre(left and right("ing ad!ersaries# ,n that sense/ centre(left candidate <nriBue PeEalosa and )ribe&s right("ing chosen contender/ Hscar ,!an Iuluaga/ are in a position to benefit fro the latest t"ist in 'olo bia&s national political dra a# 7ean"hile/ Petro&s fate re ains a biguous/ as the tribunal&s ruling only concerns the recognition of the ,A'.$&s binding nature and does not o!erturn the inspector(general&s sanctions# As such/ OrdDEe= has e4pressed his intention to appeal the tribunal5s ruling at the Supre e 'ourt# -urther ore/ if Petro is to re ain in office/ he "ill still ha!e to face popular plebiscite through an arranged referendu # !ther developments The %olivian ministry of defence dismissed over #,, soldiers over charges of sedition* Since 2 April/ discontent against "hat is percei!ed as unfair discri ination of indigenous Boli!ians has risen "ithin the ranks of Boli!ia&s national ar y# On 22 April/ a protest in!ol!ing 000 soldiers "as staged in the capital/ 6a Pa=: "ith a second de onstration in!ol!ing 1/000 soldiers follo"ing on 20 April# ,n a subseBuent state ent/ Boli!ian President <!o 7orales/ hi self an Ay ara/ called for greater discipline "ithin the Boli!ian ilitary#

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!n

April( a ) year old dancer was killed during a shoot;out between %ra=ilian police and

suspected criminals in a fa!ela near the touristic district of 'opacabana in $Jo de @aneiro after the police istook hi for a drug trafficker# On the sa e e!ening/ !iolence broke out bet"een cri inal gangs and

security forces in the surrounding areas# 3he death sparked !iolent clashes bet"een de onstrators and police on 24 April# 1uring late 7arch/ !iolent clashes also occurred after an innocent "o an "as shot under si ilar circu stances# 3hese recent e!ents highlight the e4cessi!e force e ployed by police during operations and put the local security forces under further scrutiny ahead of the -,-A >orld 'up in @une# !n > April( over (,,, soldiers were dispatched to M?rida( the home of @ene=uela:s largest public university* O!er the past t"o onths/ the country has e4perienced a surge in !iolent student protests

against the go!ern ent# On 10 April the )nion of South A erican Aations 8)AAS)$9 launched a series of eetings ai ed at addressing the ongoing crisis: ho"e!er disagree ent re ains bet"een the opposition parties and the ad inistration of Aicol%s 7aduro# !n the radar The first round of 'olombia:s presidential elections is scheduled for > May* Protestors have taken over part of the Pluspetrol !il %lock in northern Peru* Presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in Panama on 8 May* 4ncreased security and disruption to be e2pected in @ene=uela:s capital( 'aracas( on 6abour 1ay 81 7ay9 during rallies by pro(go!ern ent groups# Protesters plan to congregate outside the $ational 'ongress building in Argentina:s capital( %uenos Aires( on A April*

Asia and Pacific

1S president sheds light on strategic interests in the Asia;Pacific during regional tour )S President Barack Oba a landed in 3okyo/ @apan/ on 22 April to begin a tour of four key allies in the Asia(Pacific region# ,n addition to @apan/ Oba a !isited South ?orea and 7alaysia/ and concludes in the Philippines on 28 April# Se!eral key de!elop ents e erged fro the )nited States re ains co Oba a&s high(le!el eetings# -irst/ in @apan/ Oba a declared that the )S defence treaty co!ers the disputed 1iaoyuKSenkaku ,slands and that itted to the security of @apan# Second/ on 20 April/ Oba a arri!ed in and of South ?orean forces during "arti e to essage of increasing co it ent to the security and Seoul/ South ?orea/ and threatened ne" sanctions against Aorth ?orea# ,n addition/ Oba a e4pressed his openness to once again delaying the transfer of co Seoul# Oba a arri!ed in 7alaysia on 2L April "ith a

de!elop ent of the region# Oba a also sought to reduce concerns surrounding 7alaysia&s participation in the free trade 3rans(Pacific Partnership# As Oba a concludes this trip "ith an o!ernight stop in 7anila/ he is e4pected to discuss the i portance of security cooperation in the region and the Philippines&s strategic role in regional security#

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3his diplo atic tour is Oba a&s

ost co prehensi!e trip to the Asia(Pacific region# >hile Oba a has

!isited South ?orea se!eral ti es during his presidency/ this is the first ti e in nearly 00 years that a )S president has !isited 7alaysia/ and the first ti e since 1MML that a )S president has conducted a full state !isit to @apan# Oba a had cancelled a si ilar tour of Asian allies in October 2012 a id a go!ern ent shutdo"n in >ashington# 3he cancelation of that !isit raised doubts o!er Oba a&s co to"ards the Asia(Pacific# Oba a&s declaration that the )S(@apan defence treaty co!ers the disputed islands is significant because it arks a clear co co strong it ent to the )nited States& traditional allies in the region# >hile signalling a greater unicating a ilitary clout/ Oba a is indicating that the )S presence in Asia/ it ent to the region&s stability and gro"th/ the Oba a ad inistration is likely co essage to 'hina# ,n ter s of it ent to the Asia(Pacific region# <arly in his tenure as president/ Oba a indicated a strategic pi!ot in )S foreign policy

especially !ia @apan and South ?orea/ is a significant counter"eight to 'hinese na!al e4pansion# At the sa e ti e/ reiterating the a;or international issues surrounding Aorth ?orean aggression represents a unity# Although Oba a call to leaders in Bei;ing to take greater responsibility in the international co responsible stakeholder in the region# !ther developments !n April( three crew members of an oil tanker were abducted by pirates in the Straits of Malacca illion litres of fuel# 3he strait is one of ost i portant shipping routes for energy any countries in Asia and

did not include 'hina on this tour/ he has highlighted that the )nited States e4pects 'hina to be a

in a raid that stole fi!e Aorth A erica# 're"

supplies in the "orld/ and its security is considered of !ital strategic interest to and 7yan ar# Although security forces fro

e bers on board during the raid included nationals of 3hailand/ ,ndia/ ,ndonesia 7alaysia/ ,ndonesia and Singapore ha!e increased patrols in

the Straits/ piracy re ains a significant concern# A 6ey naval summit held in Bingdao( 'hina( has led to an agreement on maritime conduct as ore

than 20 countries "ith an acti!e na!al presence and interest in the >estern Pacific ocean concluded a sy posiu on 22 April# $epresentati!es fro 'hina/ the )nited States/ @apan and 18 other countries hosted by 'hina# 3he key result of this eeting "as an attended the >estern Pacific Aa!al Sy posiu accord on na!al co encounter each other in the !ital sea lines of co

unication/ "hich de!eloped a code of conduct for na!al !essels that une4pectedly unication in the Asia(Pacific region# >hile the isco unication de!eloping into a

agree ent is not legally binding/ it does reduce the likelihood of a

confrontation# 1espite the agree ent/ Nu .ong eng/ leader of 'hina&s na!al branch of the People&s 6iberation Ar y/ indicated that the ne" code of conduct "ill not influence territorial issues in the South and <ast 'hina Seas# Activity at a $orth 6orean nuclear facility increased as 1S President %arack !bama visited South 6orean officials on > April* ,ntelligence fro ?orea&s South ?orean satellites indicates that acti!ity at Aorth South ?orea suggest that Aorth bo b/ including sealing

ain nuclear test site in Punggye(ri has increased# $eports fro

?orea has taken the final steps in preparing to test a ne" underground uraniu

the tunnel that leads to the underground test site# <4perts ha!e reported that this action gi!es Aorth ?orea 11 days to either conduct the test or cancel the detonation# ,f Aorth ?orea "as to go ahead/ it "ould be the country&s fourth such nuclear test#

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!n the radar The %angladesh $ationalist Party has called for nationwide demonstrations on " April* 1A May marks the anniversary of the ,1, $ational 1nited -ront of 7emocracy against 7ictatorship /1770 clashes in Thailand( "hich clai ed the li!es of o!er 80 ci!ilians and soldiers# The final three stages of the 4ndian general elections are scheduled for 8, April( # May and 1 May( "ith results e4pected to be announced around 1L 7ay# &eightened security and overnight curfews are in place in .akhine( Myanmar( a id lo"(le!el unrest during the nation"ide census#

<urope
+# to issue further sanctions against .ussia following continued aggression in 1kraine ,n a ;oint state ent on 20 April/ the *+ leaders announced they "ere issuing further sanctions against $ussia in response to the country&s increasingly aggressi!e actions to"ards )kraine# 3he sanctions "ill be i posed as early as 28 April and "ill not be li ited to econo ic/ trade and finance sanctions# *er an 'hancellor Angela 7erkel also reported that <uropean leaders "ould be appropriate response fro <) eeting shortly to discuss an e bers# <arlier in the "eek/ during a !isit to )kraine/ )S Oice President

@oe Biden "arned $ussia that it "ould face isolation if its aggression continues# On 22 April/ >ashington also announced the deploy ent of L00 troops to Poland and surrounding Baltic states# .o"e!er/ $ussia "arned on 22 April that it "ould respond to )krainian airspace and that $ussian troops had reco enced ilitary action in <astern )kraine should its ilitary e4ercises on )kraine&s eastern borders# interests be attacked# On 20 April/ the Pentagon reported that $ussian "arplanes had !iolated )krainian

3he "orsening relations bet"een the >est and $ussia follo"ing the <aster truce ha!e been e4acerbated by the kidnap of eight Organisation for Security and 'o(operation in <urope 8OS'<9 obser!ers by pro( $ussian ar ed separatists# 3he de(facto ayor of Slo!yansk/ Oyachesla! Pono aryo!/ accused one of the onitors of being a AA3O spy# On 20 April/ the international obser!ers/ "ho "ere tra!elling by bus "ith fi!e )krainian ar ed forces personnel/ "ere sei=ed at a separatist checkpoint in Slo!yansk in <astern )kraine# One of the obser!ers/ a S"ede/ "as released on edical grounds on 2+ April# 3he 12 re aining indi!iduals are currently being held in Slo!yansk&s state security agency building/ "hich has been occupied by pro($ussian acti!ists# 3he ?ie! go!ern ent is atte pting to negotiate their release# Ae"s of the abductions "as released on the sa e day as )kraine&s Pri e 7inister Arseniy Patsenyuk accused $ussia of trying to trigger a Qthird "orld "ar&# On 24 April/ )kraine ounted a ilitary offensi!e to regain control of Slo!yansk and special forces sei=ed

control of the to"n hall in 7ariupol/ a southeastern port city# -i!e rebels "ere killed during the attack# 3he $ussian president/ Oladi ir Putin/ "arned )kraine that it "ould face conseBuences follo"ing )kraine&s decision to deploy ilitary forces in <astern )kraine# On 20 April/ the ?ie! go!ern ent launched the second phase of an operation to regain control of Slo!yansk# .o"e!er/ a rocket(propelled grenade do"ned a )krainian helicopter during take(off at a base near the to"n of ?ra atorsk in <astern )kraine# )kraine faces further difficulties this "eek follo"ing *a=pro &s "arning on 20 April that )kraine "ill be forced to pay in ad!ance for $ussian gas/ should the ?ie! go!ern ent fail to re unerate the co pany for the gas it has already pro!ided#

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!ther developments A Moscow court has e2tended the house arrest of .ussian opposition figure Ale2ei $avalny( "ith an additional si4 onths being added to the original sentence follo"ing clai s that Aa!alny had !iolated the edia platfor 3"itter in order

conditions set for his house arrest# Aa!alny is accused of accessing social

to libel a 7osco" district councillor/ and "as also fined 200/000 roubles# )nder the ter s of the original sentence/ the opposition acti!ist/ "ho denies "riting the t"eet/ "as banned fro co tea clai unication and fro no" clai "ith defrauding 21 illion roubles fro engaging in any outside recei!ing !isitors# Aa!alny and his brother/ Oleg/ are currently on trial charged t"o clients through a freight(transportation ser!ice# Aa!alny&s

that one of the clients/ the -rench cos etics co pany P!es $ocher/ ha!e "ithdra"n their of the $ussian president# .is supporters are concerned that the court is

and deny that they suffered da age# 3he acti!ist clai s that he is being persecuted by the

ad inistration for his criticis seeking to ;ail Aa!alny#

!n < April( +eorgian foreign minister Maia PanCikid=e announced that the +eorgia will sign an association agreement with the European 1nion in late 5une ,1<# 3he ne"s ca e during a !isit to *eorgia last "eek by the *er an foreign inister/ 6aurent -abius# At a inister/ -rank(>alter Stein eier/ and the -rench foreign issioner for

eeting in Prague/ '=ech $epublic/ Rtefan -Sle/ the <) 'o

<nlarge ent and <uropean Aeighbourhood Policy/ later assured the *eorgian president/ *iorgi 7arg!elash!ili/ that an association agree ent "ith *eorgia "as a top priority for the <uropean )nion# *eorgia is also e4pected to sign the 1eep and 'o prehensi!e -ree 3rade Area 81'-3A9 agree ent in @une# Stein eier announced that the <) is "illing to engage in an official association "ith *eorgia follo"ing the significant steps that ha!e been taken to tackle corruption and rein!igorate the *eorgian political spectru / and that $ussia is a"are of these plans# !n < April( the +erman government halted arms e2ports to .ussia in reaction to .ussia:s involvement in 1kraine:s political crisis* 3he *er an econo ic cooperation inistry "ill not gi!e

*er an co panies per ission to e4port ar s/ halting nearly +0T of applications 8"orth appro4i ately U0#2 illion9# 3he inistry is currently re!ie"ing a potential course of action for per its already granted/ the *reen Party/ also re!ealed that in critical cases the go!ern ent "ould act and/ follo"ing scrutiny fro

to stop pre!iously authorised e4ports being carried out# !n the radar $ational 1nion of .ail( Maritime and Transport Dorkers /.MT0 members are e2pected to strike from the evening of " April until 1 May( disrupting tube ser!ices in 6ondon/ )nited ?ingdo # 5apanese Prime Minister Shin=o Abe will visit the European 1nion on # May to meet with the president of the European 'ouncil( &erman @an .ompuy( and President of European 'ommission 5ose Manuel %arroso* Activists plan to stage demonstrations in +ermany:s capital( %erlin( on 8, April and 1 May* President of the European 'ommission 5ose Manuel %arroso will visit the 1nited States on 8, April to < May*

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7iddle <ast
Peace talks between 4srael and Palestinian Authority come to halt following reconciliation agreement between -atah and &amas On 22 April/ the ri!al Palestinian factions of -atah and .a as announced a reconciliation deal and that an interi unity go!ern ent headed by current President 7oha ed Abbas "ould be for ed "ithin fi!e onths# ,n response/ ,sraeli Pri e "eeks# 7oreo!er/ parlia entary elections "ill be held "ithin si4

7inister Ben;a in Aetanyahu announced that ,srael "ould not continue negotiations "ith Abbas/ the leader of -atah/ "hile any agree ent "ith .a as is in place# .a as is considered a terrorist organisation by ,srael/ the )nited States and the <uropean )nion# ,n early 200+/ -atah and .a as agreed to for a coalition in a bid to end factional !iolence follo"ing

.a as&s unrecognised !ictory in legislati!e elections in 200L# .o"e!er/ later that year .a as sei=ed the *a=a Strip/ setting up a ri!al go!ern ent# .a as has beco e increasingly isolated in *a=a since <gypt&s 7usli Brotherhood/ a key ally/ "as pushed underground and border restrictions "ere i posed by both o!e ent controls the Palestinian Authority and the >est Bank# Abbas ,srael and <gypt# Abbas&s -atah

said that the deal "ith .a as does not contradict the peace talks "ith ,srael and that an independent state li!ing peacefully alongside ,srael re ains his goal# .o"e!er/ Aetanyahu argued that Abbas could ha!e peace "ith .a as or "ith peace "ith ,srael/ but not both# Se!eral reconciliation atte pts in!ol!ing -atah and .a as ha!e failed in recent years# ,t is unclear at this point "hether the latest atte pt "ill result in any changes on the ground# -urther ore/ any future go!ern ent in!ol!ing .a as "ill likely ha!e an i pact on Palestinian aid fro the )nited States and the <uropean )nion and all but kills off any hopes of rene"ing the stuttering peace talks bet"een ,srael and the Palestinian Authority# >ashington is hoping to e4tend negotiations beyond their e4piry on 2M April/ but this see s highly unlikely for no"# !ther developments An Afghan security guard opened fire inside a hospital on < April* 3he for er police en shot dead three )S citi=ens and "ounded t"o others at the 'hristian 'ure ,nternational .ospital in "estern ?abul# 3he gun an "as "ounded and detained by police# 3his is the latest in a series of attacks on foreigners and soft targets "ithin the country follo"ing attacks on t"o foreign ;ournalists earlier in the attacks on sy bols of foreign occupation are likely# A Syrian government airstrike on the rebel;held town of Atareb( north of Aleppo( killed more than , people and inCured do=ens more on < April* 3he strike targeted a busy !egetable arket during the onth# -urther

orning hours/ killing innocent ci!ilians# 3he Syrian ci!il "ar has no" clai ed so e 10/000 li!es since the outbreak of !iolence three years ago# 3he Syrian go!ern ent announced plans to hold presidential elections on 2 @une/ and it is likely that President Bashar al(Assad "ill secure a third se!en(year ter office# 3he fractured electorate "ill greatly reduce any legiti ate representation# in

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A series of bomb blasts at a large gathering in 4raE killed at least 8# people* On 20 April/ up to 100/000 Shia 7usli s had gathered at the ,ndustrial Stadiu in eastern Baghdad in support of the any others# 3he Shi&ite ilitant group

Asaib Ahl al(.aB# A car bo b/ a suicide bo b and a roadside bo b "ere detonated in the car park as people began to lea!e the rally/ killing 2+ and "ounding ilitant group held the rally to announce its candidates ahead of elections on 20 April# Asaib Ahl al(.aB has carried out attacks on )S troops in the past and freely ad its to sending fighters to Syria# Ao group has clai ed responsibility for the attack but it "as likely carried out by the ,sla ic State of ,raB and the 6e!ant or affiliated Sunni groups fro Anbar pro!ince# Si ilar attacks are !ery likely in the run up to elections on 20 April#

!n the radar Egypt:s foreign minister( $abil -ahmy( will meet 1S Secretary of State 5ohn 6erry in Dashington on A April to discuss the release of additional ilitary aid#

Batar:s new &amad 4nternational Airport is scheduled to open on 8, April* 3he long(delayed pro;ect is part of a huge in!est ent in infrastructure ahead of the 2022 >orld 'up#

A second round of parliamentary sessions on 8, April will select a candidate to succeed Febanese President Michael Suleiman "hen his ter e4pires on 24 7ay#

Polar regions
.ussian president holds special meeting on Arctic policy On 22 April/ $ussian President Oladi ir Putin held an e4panded eeting of the Aational Security 'ouncil ilitary/ political/ econo ic/ eeting of the $ussia&s

to discuss the go!ern ent&s track record and future plans in the realisation of $ussian Arctic policy# 3he president called the Arctic Qa sphere of our special interest&/ "ith !ital technological and en!iron ental di ensions# ,n his opening speech to the special

highest(le!el institution for the de!elop ent of national security policy/ Putin focused pri arily on de!eloping econo ic interests in the region/ such as off shore oil and gas e4traction and the Aorthern Shipping $oute/ and protecting the region fro percei!ed international and terrorist threats# ind "hen aking such an assertion

,t is possible that one of the instances the $ussian president had in Pechora Sea# Putin suggested at the ti e that foreign po"ers

"as the *reenpeace action in Septe ber 2012 to scale $ussia&s contro!ersial Prira=lo naya oil rig in the ight be behind the action and it fits his odate the e4istence of state(centric !ie" of international affairs/ "hich finds it difficult to acco

independent A*Os# As such/ on 22 April Putin also signed a la" allo"ing oil and gas corporations to defend infrastructure# According to the ne" legislation/ $ussian oil and gas co panies "ill be entitled to establish their o"n protection units# A $ussian ne"spaper belie!es the co panies "ill end up hiring &thousands of "ell(ar ed people/ eBuipped "ith auto atic "eapons/ !ehicles/ !essels and aircrafts&# 7ost of the ne" e ployees are likely to be for er ilitary personnel/ police officers and special forces operators# 3he la" is intended to protect !ital infrastructure against the threats posed by supposed terrorists/ either i agined/ such as the peaceful *reenpeace acti!ists/ or real/ such as 1 itry Parosh/ the leader of the )krainian far(right organisation $ight Sector/ "ho ha!e track record of !iolence and threatened to blo" up pipe lines transiting $ussian gas to <urope last onth#

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ore genuinely state(centred collision of interest has been the ongoing co petition bet"een 'anada/

1en ark and $ussia o!er clai s to the Arctic continental shelf/ "ith all three countries clai ing econo ic so!ereignty 8based on their rights to an e4clusi!e econo ic =one F <<I9 o!er an o!erlapping section of the Arctic Ocean/ "hich includes the Aorth Pole# 3hese clai s are based on the thus far poorly( apped 6o onoso! $idge/ an under"ater ridge of continental crust that all three countries clai e4tension of their o"n seabed# 3he 'anadian Pri e 7inister Stephen .arper ade an ill(ad!ised clai to be an ost recent spat o!er the ridge occurred in 1ece ber 2012 "hen to the Aorth Pole/ "hich contradicted

the geological sur!ey data collected by 'anada&s o"n scientists# ,f collisions of interest gro" in freBuency o!er the co ing years/ the responsibility "ill lie largely "ith the $ussian president and his security ad!isers/ "ho ha!e isread the significance of occasional populist outbursts by politicians "ith li ited inister/ as ;ustifications for a declared policy of ilitary e4pansion ilitary any signs o!er the last year that $ussia is serious about such a ilitary drills# andates/ such as the 'anadian pri e into the region# 3here ha!e been na!al and

build(up/ "hich includes the re(opening of So!iet(era

ilitary and air bases in the region/ the refitting of

ilitary units and the e4ecution of increasingly sophisticated

!ther developments The ability of 1S federal agencies to respond to an oil spill in the Arctic has been criticised as Gsorely lacking: in a report published on 22 April by the )S Aational $esearch 'ouncil and the Aational Acade y of <ngineering# 3he report highlighted a "ide range of deficiencies in the public and pri!ate spheres of infor ation about natural resources/ ice conditions/ "eather patterns and e!en basic geography in the region# ,t criticised the lack of infrastructure in the Arctic as a significant liability in the e!ent of a large oil spill# 3he report said/ &,t is unlikely that responders could Buickly react to an oil spill unless there "ere i pro!ed port and air access/ stronger supply chains/ and increased capacity to handle eBuip ent/ supplies/ and personnel#& 3he report also argued that a "ith 'anadian and $ussian coastguards "ill be essential# +lobal energy company +a=prom is considering the development of up to , offshore fields in the Arctic 6ara Sea( as "ell as the construction of a ne" liBuefied natural gas 86A*9 ter inal in the Pa al Peninsula# 3he Pa al Peninsula in $ussia&s far north has seen a boo pro;ects in recent in ongoing or planned e4tracti!e a;or scientific effort is needed to gather ore infor ation on the region before considering the de!elop ent of oil and gas fields and close cooperation

onths/ including the ongoing de!elop ent of the Ao!atekK3otalK'AP' 6A* pro;ect# edia/ *a=pro is looking for contractors

$osneft&s '<O/ ,gor Sechin/ recently announced that his co pany is also considering 6A* production in the peninsula# According to tender docu entation seen by $ussian to help de!elop up to 20 perspecti!e fields in the oil and gas(rich Arctic "aters# A ong the fields that are to be de!eloped are the 6eningradskoye and $usano!skoye fields/ each esti ated to contain at least three trillion cubic eters of gas#

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!n the radar The 'ompany of Master Mariners of 'anada will hold a seminar in &alifa2( 'anada( on A April to in!estigate the progress of de!elop ent in the 'anadian Arctic# -rench energy corporation Total are reportedly bracing for a consumer boycott( after *reenpeace published clai s on 2+ April that the co pany has bought the first(e!er consign ent of offshore Arctic oil# The super strength icebreaking .ussian oil tanker Mikhail 1lyanov is reportedly now heading for .otterdam( the $etherlands( with the world:s first;ever shipment of offshore Arctic oil*

Published with intelligence support from Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www*bradburys*co*uk

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