Iraq's House of Cards

With the country collapsing around him, Nouri al-Maliki's strongman image is a sham. And that's exactly why he's so dangerous.

BY ZAID AL-ALI -APRIL 29, 2014

There is something truly paradoxical about Iraq's April 30 parliamentary elections Although there is near unanimity among obser!ers that the past four years ha!e been disastrous for the country" many are still #illing to defend $rime %inister &ouri al-%ali'i's tenure -- e!en going so far as to suggest that there is no one else #ho is capable of go!erning the country Ho#e!er" the sad reality is that -- gi!en all the de!elopments of his eight years in office -- !ery fe# Iraqis are less suitable to be prime minister today than %ali'i Indeed"

%ali'i's third term #ould li'ely be e!en more disastrous than his second" leading to a deterioration in security and causing the country to relapse into a ne# authoritarian era %ali'i's defenders usually argue that the prime minister #as largely responsible for the impro!ement in security that too' place in (00)" that he is a shre#d political operator #ho has outmaneu!ered all his opponents" and also that he has made himself indispensable to the state's sur!i!al That analysis seemed ludicrously generous as early as (0*0" #hen it #as first made" but it no# borders some#here bet#een the comical and the suicidal It is true that %ali'i has outmaneu!ered his opponents -- but he did so at the expense of Iraq's institutions The prime minister merely sei+ed control o!er the security forces and threatened all his opponents into submission He has monopoli+ed all decisionma'ing at the ,efense and Interior ministries and has ta'en to pro!iding direct instructions to indi!idual units -- often #ith a !ie# to intimidating enemies or suppressing percei!ed threats" thereby completely undermining the concept of a professional chain of command -hene!er his opponents demanded that he change his #ays" share po#er" or respect the rule of la#" he #ould simply refuse -- safe in the 'no#ledge that his enemies had no le!erage to spea' of Maliki has always been very good a using he securi y sec or o bols er his !oli ical !ower, bu has been an u er "ailure in res oring ac ual securi y o Ira#$ Although he #as quic' to ta'e credit for the impro!ement in security that too' place in (00. and (00)" / 0 %ili ary o""icials #ho #ere responsible for o!erseeing the 1surge1 ha!e since #ritten de ailed %e%oirs in #hich %ali'i is hardly e!er mentioned -- and #hen he does come up" %ali'i is almost ne!er portrayed in a positi!e light 2!en his decision to confront 0hiite militias in the city of 3asra and the 3aghdad suburb of 0adr City -- often cited as e!idence of his nonsectarian credentials and his

daring on the battlefield -- #as a disaster in its early stages" precisely because %ali'i #as solely in charge It #as only after / 0 forces in ervened that the battle #as #on %ali'i and his inner circle ha!e also exacerbated security ris's through a series of elementary mista'es" including sub4ecting thousands of innocent young men to un4ustified detention and allo#ing corruption to get so out of hand that it has no# seriously impacted the capacity of the security sector %ilitary units and police throughout the country no# either stand aside or acti!ely participate as local mafias "orce businessesto pay protection money 0ecurity forces in the capital are still "orced o use fa'e bomb detectors simply so that the go!ernment 5#hich #as responsible for buying the de!ices6 can sa!e face The result is that the number of security-related deaths has roughly tripled o!er the past year" as car bombs continue to rip through army units and ci!ilian areas #ith ruthless efficiency %ean#hile" armed confrontations bet#een gunmen and go!ernment forces ha!e become more frequent 0ecurity has deteriorated so terribly that Iraq is no# once again at ris' of splitting apart %any areas of the country are no# out of the go!ernment's control7 8arge s#aths of the #estern pro!ince of Anbar are in open rebellion9 security forces ha!e essentially gi!en up trying to control parts of the northern pro!ince of &ine!eh" #hich has become a ma4or financial hub for terrorist organi+ations9 and the eastern pro!ince of ,iyala has #itnessed another round of brutal bloodletting as militias and go!ernment forces shell ci!ilian areas The state's army and police ha!e re!ealed themsel!es to be little more than a paper tiger They are !ery #illing to arrest and torture the innocent and defenseless" but are essentially po#erless to control the actions of po#erful militias that are no# running riot throughout the country -ith security forces incapable of facing the threat" 0hiite militias ha!e actually begun pro!iding instructions to the military -- sometimes e!en re!lacing he% in battle altogether These de!elopments ha!e exposed %ali'i's strongman image as the house of cards it al#ays #as The prime minister's supporters regularly refer admiringly to his capacity for sur!i!al"

but it is precisely %ali'i's stubborn insistence that he should remain in control of go!ernment that has hindered the !rovision o" services Hospitals are in such a poor state that Iraqi doctors #ould ne!er imagine turning to one of their colleagues for treatment9 they tra!el to any number of capitals in the region for e!en minor ailments 2lectricity production has impro!ed only slightly" to the extent that summers and #inters are still in!ariably punctuated by daily po#er cuts" some of #hich can last for days :ather than trying to resol!e these problems"%ali'i has allo#ed a gro es#ue "or% of ne!o is% to gna# a#ay at the state's bureaucracy" marginali+ing the fe# competent officials #ho sur!i!ed 3aath $arty rule and Iraq's #ars These failures also ha!e ser!ed to pre!ent alternati!es to the status quo from emerging %ali'i's greatest success may ha!e been creating the impression that he is indispensable -- that the state #ill collapse if the man in charge is remo!ed The truth is that #hat ma'es %ali'i and his clique indispensable is their #illingness to burn the #hole house do#n to protect their positions In fact" many competent politicians are far better placed than %ali'i and his inner circle to guide the country to a better place Iraq does not lac' competent administrators or politicians -- it merely lac's the democratic traditions that #ould allo# them to play a greater role in re!itali+ing its moribund go!ernment 0e!eral names come immediately to mind7Moha%%ed Allawi" a former communications minister #ho resigned in protest #hen %ali'i 'ept appointing incompetent party loyalists to his ministry9 Ali Allawi" a former defense and finance minister #ho left go!ernment in (00; in disgust at the corruption9 Adel Abdul Mahdi" a respected politician #ho could ha!e sufficient bac'ing to form a go!ernment9 and Ali &wai" a go!ernor of a southern pro!ince #ho is reno#ned for his effecti!eness in !ery difficult circumstances -hile %ali'i may #ant obser!ers to fear that his departure #ould cause a security

deterioration" the truth is that life in Iraq is already becoming more desperate by the day -- in large part because of the toxic role that %ali'i has been playing 0ectarian relations ha!e #orsened considerably" and the general population is terrified of a rene#ed conflict A change at the country's helm is needed precisely in order to restore the possibility of an impro!ement in the country's direction9 #ith %ali'i" that possibility does not exist <or Iraqis to place their trust in the possibility that he might change his style of go!ernance after eight years in po#er #ould be borderline suicidal There is in fact a serious possibility that %ali'i #ill not obtain sufficient popular support to retain his position His electoral popularity pea'ed at around (= percent of the !ote in 2010" #hen many Iraqis still belie!ed in his nonsectarian and strongman credentials Ho#e!er" Iraq's complex and dysfunctional parliamentary system has allo#ed him to negotiate his sur!i!al This election season" %ali'i's fortunes #ill necessarily decline from the pre!ious poll -- the only questions are by ho# much and ho# his electoral ri!als #ill react After the !otes are counted" Iraq's future #ill depend on its leaders' ability to form a post-election alliance #ithout the country's most corrosi!e elements at its helm $hoto by %uhannad <ala'ah >?etty Images