3/7/14

1
SLausucs wlLh robablllLy
Lesson #18
Slldes avallable as supplemenLal maLerlal for
Lhe earson LexL LlemenLary SLausucs:
lcLurlng Lhe World", 3
Lh
edluon, by 8on
Larsen and 8eLsy larber.

1he CenLral LlmlL 1heorem
1. lf samples of slze ! > 30 are drawn from any populauon
wlLh mean = " and sLandard devlauon = #,

x

x
x
x
x
x
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x
then the sampling distribution of sample means
approximates a normal distribution. The greater the
sample size, the better the approximation.
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1he CenLral LlmlL 1heorem
2. lf Lhe populauon lLself ls normally
dlsLrlbuLed,
then the sampling distribution of sample means is
normally distribution for any sample size n.

x
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3 of 105

x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x x x
x
x
x
1he CenLral LlmlL 1heorem
ln elLher case, Lhe sampllng dlsLrlbuuon of
sample means has a mean equal Lo Lhe
populauon mean.
1he sampllng dlsLrlbuuon of sample means has a
varlance equal Lo 1/! umes Lhe varlance of Lhe
populauon and a sLandard devlauon equal Lo Lhe
populauon sLandard devlauon dlvlded by Lhe
square rooL of !$


Variance
Standard deviation (standard
error of the mean)
x
=
x
n
!
! =
2
2
x
n
!
! =
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4 of 105
Mean
1he CenLral LlmlL 1heorem
1. Any opulauon ulsLrlbuuon 2. normal opulauon ulsLrlbuuon
Distribution of Sample Means,
n ! 30
ulsLrlbuuon of Sample Means,
(any !)
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5 of 105
Lxample: lnLerpreung Lhe CenLral LlmlL
1heorem
Cellular phone bllls for resldenLs of a clLy have a
mean of $63 and a sLandard devlauon of $11.
8andom samples of 100 cellular phone bllls are
drawn from Lhls populauon and Lhe mean of each
sample ls deLermlned. llnd Lhe mean and sLandard
error of Lhe mean of Lhe sampllng dlsLrlbuuon.
1hen skeLch a graph of Lhe sampllng dlsLrlbuuon of
sample means.

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6 of 105
3/7/14
2
Soluuon: lnLerpreung Lhe CenLral LlmlL
1heorem
1he mean of Lhe sampllng dlsLrlbuuon ls equal Lo
Lhe populauon mean
1he sLandard error of Lhe mean ls equal Lo Lhe
populauon sLandard devlauon dlvlded by Lhe
square rooL of !.

63
x
= =
11
1.1
100
x
n
!
! = = =
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7 of 105
Soluuon: lnLerpreung Lhe CenLral LlmlL
1heorem
Slnce Lhe sample slze ls greaLer Lhan 30, Lhe
sampllng dlsLrlbuuon can be approxlmaLed by
a normal dlsLrlbuuon wlLh
$63
x
= $1.10
x
! =
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8 of 105
Lxample: lnLerpreung Lhe CenLral LlmlL
1heorem
Suppose Lhe Lralnlng hearL raLes of all 20-year-old
aLhleLes are normally dlsLrlbuLed, wlLh a mean of
133 beaLs per mlnuLe and sLandard devlauon of 18
beaLs per mlnuLe. 8andom samples of slze 4 are
drawn from Lhls populauon, and Lhe mean of each
sample ls deLermlned. llnd Lhe mean and sLandard
error of Lhe mean of Lhe sampllng dlsLrlbuuon.
1hen skeLch a graph of Lhe sampllng dlsLrlbuuon of
sample means.

2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
9 of 105
Soluuon: lnLerpreung Lhe CenLral LlmlL
1heorem
1he mean of Lhe sampllng dlsLrlbuuon ls equal Lo
Lhe populauon mean
1he sLandard error of Lhe mean ls equal Lo Lhe
populauon sLandard devlauon dlvlded by Lhe
square rooL of !.

135
x
= =
18
9
4
x
n
!
! = = =
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10 of 105
Soluuon: lnLerpreung Lhe CenLral LlmlL
1heorem
Slnce Lhe populauon ls normally dlsLrlbuLed,
Lhe sampllng dlsLrlbuuon of Lhe sample means
ls also normally dlsLrlbuLed.
135
x
= 9
x
! =
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11 of 105
robablllLy and Lhe CenLral LlmlL
1heorem
1o Lransform % Lo a &-score
Value Mean
Standard error
x
x
x x
z
n

!
!
" " "
= = =
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12 of 105
Lecture #18 - Learning about the world through surveys
Some important denitions:
1. Population - A group of objects or people we wish to study.
2. Parameter - A numerical value that characterizes some aspect of this population.
3. Census - A survey in which EVERY member of the population is measured.
4. Sample - A collection of people or objects taken from the population of interest.
5. Statistic - A numerical characteristic of a sample data. Statistics are used to estimate
parameters. Statistics are sometimes called estimators and the numbers that result are
called estimates.
6. Bias is measured using the center of the sampling distribution: It is the distance
between the center and the population parameter value.
7. Precision is measured using the standard deviation of the sampling distribution, which
is called the standard error. When the standard error is small, we say the estimator
is precise.
8. Sampling Distribution - the special name for the probability distribution of a statis-
tic. Used to make inferences about a population.
Facts:
1. No matter how many dierent samples we take, the value of (the population mean)
is always the same, but the value of x changes from sample to sample.
2. The precision of an estimator does NOT depend on the size of a population; it depends
only on the sample size.
3. Surveys based on larger sample sizes have smaller standard error and therefore better
precision. Increasing sample size improves precision.
Keeping track of parameters and statistics:
Parameters (typically unknown)
1. - population mean
2. - population standard deviation
3.
2
- population variance
4. p - population proportion
Statistics (based on data)
5. x - sample mean
6. s - sample standard deviation
7. s
2
- sample variance
8. p - sample proportion
THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM - Three ways
1. The Central Limit Theorem for a Sample PROPORTION tells us that if we take a
random sample from a population, and if the sample size n is large and the population
size is much larger than the sample size, then the sampling distribution of the sample
proportion p is approximately normal with mean p and standard deviation

p(1 p)
n
(If you dont know the value of p, then you can substitute the value of p to calculate
the estimated standard error.)
2. The Central Limit Theorem for Sample SUM tells us that if we take a random sample
X
1
, X
2
, . . . , X
n
from a population, and if the sample size n is large and the population
size is much larger than the sample size, then the sampling distribution of the sum
X
1
+ X
2
+ + X
n
is approximately normal with mean n and standard deviation

n.
3. The Central Limit Theorem for Sample MEAN tells us that if we take a random
sample from a population, and if the sample size n is large and the population size
is much larger than the sample size, then the sampling distribution of the mean

X is
approximately normal with mean and standard deviation

n
.
Page 2





!" $%&'' ()*+,+*- ./ 0 123' 43&)*+2" 1+'*&")3 1353"6 2" 73"6389 :;82< Gould, Robert and
Colleen Ryan. 2013. Essential Statistics: Exploring the World Through Data. Pearson.)
Work in groups of two or three. One person holds the meter stick vertically, with one hand near the top of the stick,
so that the 0-centimeter mark is at the bottom. The other person then positions his or her thumb and index finger
about 5 cm apart (2 inches apart) on opposite sides of the meter stick at the bottom. Now the first person drops
the meter stick without warning, and the other person catches it. Record the location of the middle of the thumb of
the catcher. This is the distance the stick traveled and is called the reaction distance, which is related to reaction
time. A student who records a small distance has a fast reaction time, and a student with a larger distance has a
slower reaction time. Now switch tasks. Each person should try catching the meter stick twice, and the better
(shorter) distance should be reported for each person. Then record the gender of each catcher. Your instructor
will collect your data and combine the class results.
=3;283 *>3 ()*+,+*-
1. Imagine that your class has collected data and you have 25 men and 25 women. Sketch the shape of the
distribution you expect to see for the men and the distribution you expect to see for the women. Explain why
you chose the shape you did.
2. What do you think would be a reasonable value for the typical reaction distance for the women? Do you
think it will be different from the typical reaction distance for the men?
(;*38 *>3 ()*+,+*-
1. Now that you have actual data, how do the shapes of the distributions for men and women compare to the
sketches you made before you collected data?
2. What measures of center and spread are appropriate for comparing men and women's reaction distances?
Why?
3. How do the actual typical reaction distances compare to the values you predicted?
4. Using the data collected from the class, write a short paragraph (a couple of sentences) comparing the
reaction distances of men and women. You should also talk about what group you could extend your
findings to, and why. For example, do your findings apply to all men and women? Or do they apply only to
college students?



kesu|ts of Act|v|ty #3 - Does keact|on D|stance Depend on Gender?
!"#$%&'( *&+%#($" ,"#+-."* &( &($/"+
Men b|ns Women b|ns
0 1 0 2
034 4 2 5
6 2 0 6
4 5 77 0
4 6 7734 78
234 0 234 77
2 78 78 79
5 0
5 77
5
5 Mean = 03999999
234 Med|an = 0
234 Modes = 0
78 S.d. = 730:6961
0
4
Mean = 53794
Med|an = 5
Modes = 5
S.d. = 73462187
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)
3
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Works Cited, References and Links:

Larsen, Ron, and Betsy Farber. 2012. Powerpoint Lecture Slides for Elementary Statistics:
Picturing the World, 5
th
edition. Pearson.ISBN-10: 0321693728. Can be downloaded at:

http://www.pearsonhighered.com/educator/product/Elementary-Statistics-Picturing-the-World-
5E/9780321693624.page#dw_resources

Gould, Robert and Colleen Ryan. 2013. Essential Statistics: Exploring the World Through
Data. Pearson. ISBN-10: 0321322150.

Emerson, Tisha L. N., and Beck A. Taylor. 2004. Comparing Student Achievement Across
Experimental and Lecture-Oriented Sections of a Principles of Microeconomics Course.
Southern Economic Journal 70: 672-93.

Knight, Jennifer K., and William B. Wood. 2005. Teaching More by Lecturing Less. Cell
Biology Education 4: 298-310.

Prince, Michael. 2004. Does Active Learning Work? A Review of the Research. Journal of
Engineering Education 93: 223-31.

Robinson, Carole F., and Peter J. Kakela. 2006. Creating a Space to Learn: A Classroom of
Fun, Interaction and Trust. College Teaching 54: 202-06.