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These are the swings in national income, output and employment causing
expansion and contraction in most of the sectors of the economy.
Cyclical patterns are neither smooth nor regular.
These cyclical patterns are observed over a long time period, most generally
from 20 to 30 yrs.
Samuelson Nordhaus Comments [1998]
…….No exact formula, such as might apply to the revolutions of the
planets or of a pendulum, can be used to predict the duration and
timing of business cycles. Rather, in their irregularities, business
cycles more closely resemble the fluctuations of the weather……
The cycles are like mountain ranges, with different levels of hills
and valleys. Some valleys are very deep and broad………..
Amplitude and Frequency
Amplitude is the maximum distance by which national income
deviates from the trend line.This amplitude varies as the cycle
proceeds with irregular pattern.
Frequency refers to the number of times the cycle repeats itself
over a period of time.
One cycle is completed between two consecutive peaks.
Damped & Explosive Cycles
On a damped cycle, the amplitude declines and the
national income eventually converges with the trend
line.
In explosive cycle, the amplitude increases as the cycle
proceeds and the oscillations above and below the trend
line become wider and wider so that the economy
reaches a crisis point requiring urgent public policy
intervention.
PEAK
High degree of capacity utilisation [matching demand]
LEADING TO…..
Uncertain economic conditions
Rife speculation
What a business men will do?
WAIT & WATCH POLICY
Postponement of all important decisions
No expansion of emerging projects
Variable Consequences
Unemployment is high
Phase of Prosperity
Business optimism all around
Rising capacity utilisation levels
Falling inventory levels
Growth picks up momentum
Economy approaches to full employment level
1.
Increse in 2.
supply of Pumping of
Money/ Fall in Money
thecash balance
of the household
2.Strained Infrastructure/
Pdn.
Bottlenecks
4.Increased Factor
Price/High Demand
for Credit- 3.Increased
High Credit- Deposit Ratio Demand for
Factors
1.Contractionary
induces
sluggish investment of
5.Issuance of fresh business sector
Credit by Banks
2.Transaction Demand fo
money goes down
4.Comfortable
credit-deposit
ratio
3.Credit payments
are made
Multiplier-Accelerator Mechanism
Accelerator: Rate of investment in an economy depends basically on
the rate of change in output.
High rate of growth High rate of Investment
K=a.Y………..1
a [accelerator co-efficient]=capital-output ratio-depends on level of
technology
∆K=a. ∆Y, where ∆ denotes change and
or, I= a. ∆Y………2, where I denotes investment.
If ∆Y=100 and a=4 then an investment of 400 will be caused.
Accelerator-Rises and falls in aggregate demand or output produce
corresponding changes in investment.
Multiplier-And changes in investment, as per multiplier mechanism,
produce multiplier mechanism, produce multiple changes in the level
of output.
Interpretation:
The combined impact of multiplier and accelerator is capable of
producing significant fluctuation in an economy.
Multiplier-accelerator interaction has the power to explain a complete
business cycle including the cumulative nature of expansion and
contraction processes, floors and ceilings and the upper and lower
turning points.
Floors and Ceilings [Role of Accelerator]
Expansion Phase
Expansion Phase---constrained factors-supply bottlenecks---escalating
costs----squeezing Profit margins---slows down rate of growth of
output----ACCELERATOR in action---fall in Investment in new plant
& machinery---Fall in income & consumer demand----EXCESS
CAPACITY---further fall in inv.-----Growth momentum broken-----------------
CEILING is hit
Floors
Rapid contraction process----Deep Recession
Should the economy collapse? If not why?
Presence of
Minimum Aggregate demand
[past savings or debt]
Social security measures Household Sector
Expansionary fiscal policy
Business Sector
Investment is needed for
Replace worn out capital
New innovations
New business opportunities
This sets in the floor & the economy settles in the low-level equilibrium.
UPPER AND LOWER TURNING POINTS
GDP3
Turning Points:
Expansion---Contraction
GDP ,
Inv.
GDP1
Contraction---Expansion
GDP2
I 3
I1
I2
Time
Upper Turning Point:
Falling rate of growth of –Income [Ceiling]—Fall in Investment
[ACCELERATOR]----MULTIPLIER----Upper Turning Point
-----Expansion to Contraction
Trough-----replacement of Inv. demend’/Govt. expenditure [Exp.
Fiscal Policy]---Multiplier----rise in Investment & Income-----
ACCELERATOR-----Lower turning Point
-----Contraction to Expansion
Policy-Induced Cycles
Recession----Govt. Expenditure, if overdose
What would be the consequence?
Multiplier-Accelerator Interaction
High AD & Supply Constraints
INFLATION
Fiscal Policy
Cuts in Govt.Exp
If , Govt. intervention is large
RECESSION
Ill-timed stabilisation Policy
Time gestationRole of Endogenous forces
Political Business Cycles
Welfare Projects
Infrastructure Projects Expansion
New Public works
Direct employment generation Programmes
Imported Cyclical Fluctuations
Exogenous factors and Global LINKAGES
Exports Perspective
FDI Perspective