Professional Documents
Culture Documents
11
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin
Policy Issues
Korea-EU FTA 40
Statistical Appendices 49
The Green Book
Current Economic Trends
Overview
The Korean economy showed better-than-expected performance in the third quarter,
growing 2.9 percent from the previous quarter, while the economic indicators such as
production, consumption, investment and exports rose noticeably in September.
Consumer goods sales grew 1.8 percent month-on-month, or 6.7 percent year-on-year in
September, backed by a surge in durable goods sales, in particular automobile sales.
Exports in October, despite reduced working days caused by Chuseok holidays, remained on
a recovery trend, falling 8.3 percent year-on-year, as major exports including semiconductors
increased.
The total number of workers hired gained 71,000 year-on-year in September, a huge
increase from the previous month’s rise of 3,000, thanks to government’s job creating
measures, while unemployment dropped from the previous month’s 3.7 percent to 3.4
percent.
Consumer prices in October slowed a year-on-year increase from 2.2 percent a month earlier
to 2.0 percent, as prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products as well as oil product
prices stabilized.
October financial markets saw stock prices fall in line with global stock market adjustment,
foreign exchange rates rise slightly, and interest rates increase reflecting the real economy.
To sum up, although the domestic economy improved markedly amid the global economy
gradually picking up, affected by temporary factors such as a shift of Chuseok holidays,
uncertainties surrounding sustainable recovery still exist.
The Korean government will, considering external factors and other uncertainties in the
economy, keep pursuing expansionary fiscal policies and minimize the 2009 budget
transferred to 2010 or left unspent, while closely monitoring any signs of economic
instability, in particular the overheated real estate market. On the other hand, measures to
create jobs, support the working class, and boost consumption and investment will be
carried out as planned, along with efforts to further develop the Korean economy.
Economic Bulletin 3
1. Global economy
The global economic recovery remained on upward track as the third-quarter growth in major
countries such as the US and China improved from the previous quarter. On October 29, the
IMF revised up Asia’s growth outlook for 2009 and 2010 to 2.8 percent and 5.8 percent,
respectively, higher than its previous forecasts of 1.2 percent and 4.3 percent in May.
US
The US economy saw the real GDP in the third quarter increase for the first time in five
quarters, registering a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.5 percent (annualized, advanced
estimates).
New home sales in September fell 3.6 percent month-on-month, while existing home sales
increased 9.4 percent from a month earlier with home prices continuing the upward trend.
Job markets remained sluggish in September, as non-farm payrolls declined at a faster pace
and unemployment stayed at the 9 percent range, posting 9.8 percent.
The Federal Reserve said in October Beige Book that the economy was slowly clawing out of
a recession and showed either stabilization or modest improvements in many sectors such
as residential real estate and manufacturing. However, the Fed gave a grim assessment of
commercial real estate, consumer spending and loan demand.
4 November 2009
1-1 US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
Source: US Department of Commerce
Economic Bulletin 5
China Despite a fall in exports, China’s economy posted year-on-year growth of 8.9 percent in the
third quarter, as brisk domestic demand including consumption and investment led to an
increase in production.
Although exports had continued the downward trend since November 2008, the pace of
decline considerably slowed in September, and home prices accelerated the pace of growth.
Japan Japan saw a gradual economic recovery continuing in September, as retail sales fell at a
slower pace and month-on-month industrial production improved for the seventh
consecutive month.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said in the Regional Economic Report released on October 19 that
the economy started to show signs of slight improvement in the previous quarter, as public
investment increased and exports and production picked up.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep
Real GDP -0.7 0.9 -0.7 -1.3 -3.4 -3.3 0.6 - - -
Industrial and mining production -3.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.3 -12.0 -22.2 8.3 7.2 1.6 1.4
Retail sales (y-o-y, %) 0.3 1.8 0.2 0.8 -1.5 -3.9 -0.9 -3.4 -1.8 -1.4
Exports (y-o-y, %) -3.5 5.9 1.8 3.2 -23.1 -46.9 -38.5 -34.4 -36.0 -30.6
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1.4 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2
Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone The eurozone economy showed signs of stabilizing, as indicators reflecting the real economy
improved, in particular industrial production which increased for four months in a row.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep
Real GDP 0.8 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 -1.8 -2.5 -0.2 - - -
Industrial production -1.8 1.8 -2.2 -2.8 -6.2 -7.5 -3.0 - 1.1 -
Retail sales -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 - -0.2 -
Exports (y-o-y, %) 3.7 6.8 8.5 5.7 -5.0 -21.3 -24.0 - -23.0 -
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3
Source: Eurostat
6 November 2009
1-4 China’s GDP and fixed asset investment
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Economic Bulletin 7
2. Private consumption
Private consumption (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter increased 1.4 percent
quarter-on-quarter, or 0.6 percent year-on-year.
Consumer goods sales in September rose 1.8 percent month-on-month, or 6.7 percent year-
on-year, thanks to non-durable goods sales as well as durable goods sales, posting an
increase for five straight months.
On a month-on-month basis, durable and non-durable goods sales led a rise in consumer
goods sales, increasing 9.0 percent and 1.3 percent respectively, whereas semi-durable
goods sales dropped 6.6 percent. On a year-on-year basis, durable goods sales grew 26.5
percent thanks to a 65.8 percent surge in automobile sales, while sales of semi-durable and
non-durable goods were up 2.6 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.
Sales at department stores continued to grow year-on-year, rising 8.1 percent, while sales at
specialized retailers significantly improved by 8.8 percent.
8 November 2009
2-1 Private consumption
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 9
In October, consumer goods sales are expected to maintain its upward streak year-on-year,
given the improvements in advanced estimates and consumer sentiment.
Domestic credit card spending stayed on the upward trajectory, but decelerated the pace
from the previous month’s 14.7 percent to 9.4 percent.
Sales at department stores grew 11.4 percent from the previous month, accelerating an
increase by 2.8 percent points and posting a rise for eight consecutive months. Sales at
large discounters rose 7.4 percent in October, reversing from a four month decline during
June to September.
Domestic sales of Korean cars jumped 23.8 percent year-on-year, thanks to release of new
cars and demand surging before the expiration of the tax break for new car purchase.
Gasoline sales were up 16.9 percent year-on-year, due to extra demand during Chuseok
holidays and a low base effect.
Low inflation, stable financial markets, recovering consumer sentiment as well as improving
employment backed by the government’s job creating measures are all expected to have a
good effect on consumer spending.
10 November 2009
2-4 Department store and discount store sales (current value)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
Economic Bulletin 11
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter posted a quarter-on-
quarter increase of 8.9 percent, slowing a year-on-year loss at 8.7 percent.
Year-on-year facility investment in September rose for the first time since September 2008,
posting an increase of 5.8 percent, thanks to improvement in machinery investment such as
investments in semi-conductors and liquid crystal display devices, and a rise in
transportation equipment investment affected by a spike in automobile sales. Month-on-
month, the index gained 18.8 percent.
Facility investment in October is projected to continue the upward trend, considering the
leading indices. Machinery orders in the private sector grew for the first time since July
2008, and facility investment adjustment pressure shifted to a rise for the first time since the
global economic crisis. Corporate investment sentiment also continued its climb, with the
October BSI projection returning to the base number for the first time since July 2008.
2009
Business survey indices (base=100)
Jul Aug Sep Oct
Manufacturing facility investment projections 94 97 95 100
Source: The Bank of Korea
12 November 2009
3-1 Facility investment by type
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 13
4. Construction investment
Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter rose 2.5 percent
year-on-year, but declined 2.1 percent quarter-on-quarter.
2009
Business survey indices (base=100)
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Construction results 92.2 99.3 87.2 96.1 -
Construction projections 88.4 91.5 96.2 92.8 110.8
14 November 2009
4-1 Construction investment
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 15
5. Exports and imports
Exports in October dropped 8.3 percent year-on-year to US$34.03 billion.
The year-on-year export decline slightly accelerated from the previous month’s 7.8 percent
to 8.3 percent due to reduced working days, as Chuseok holidays fell on October this year.
Average daily exports in working-day-adjusted-terms improved greatly, from a fall of 13.6
percent to 4.3 percent, showing that the recovery in exports is stable.
Semiconductors (up 36.8) and liquid crystal devices (up 38.8%) posted a double digit
growth, while petroleum products (down 25.8%) slowed the decline.
By regional category, exports to China (up 9.7%) increased for the second straight month,
while exports to the ASEAN region (up 1.3%) shifted to a rise.
(US$ billion)
2008 2009
Annual Oct Jan-Oct Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Jan-Oct
Exports 422.01 37.11 366.05 74.41 90.84 95.45 28.96 34.51 34.03 294.73
(y-o-y, %) 13.6 7.8 20.9 -25.2 -20.7 -17.0 -20.9 -7.8 -8.3 -19.5
Average daily exports 1.53 1.55 1.60 1.10 1.19 1.33 1.26 1.44 1.48 1.27
Imports 435.27 36.10 379.84 71.39 73.70 84.83 27.39 29.80 30.23 260.14
(y-o-y, %) 22.0 10.3 31.4 -32.7 -35.8 -31.0 -32.2 -24.6 -16.3 -31.5
Average daily imports 1.58 1.50 1.66 1.06 1.06 1.34 1.19 1.24 1.31 1.12
Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in October fell 16.3 percent year-on-year to US$30.23 billion. Imports of raw
materials declined at a much slower pace, affected by rising oil prices.
The trade balance in October posted a surplus of US$3.79 billion, staying in the black for
nine straight months since February 2009.
(US$ billion)
2008 2009
Annual Oct Jan-Oct Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Jan-Oct
Trade balance -13.27 1.01 -13.80 3.03 17.14 10.62 1.57 4.71 3.79 34.58
Source: Korea Customs Service
16 November 2009
5-1 Exports (customs clearance basis)
Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin 17
6. Mining and manufacturing production
Mining and manufacturing production in September rose 5.4 percent month-on-month, or 11
percent year-on-year, affected by the strong performance of major products such as
semiconductors and automobiles, and a working day increase due to a shift of Chuseok
holidays falling on October from September last year.
By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 23.0%), and automobiles (up 32.3%)
increased, while audio visual communications equipment (down 0.26%) and petroleum
refining (down 0.11%) decreased.
Shipments increased year-on-year for the first time since September 2009, rising 8.7
percent, while the level of inventory fell at a slightly slower pace from the previous month’s
14.1 percent to 14.0 percent.
By business category, the shipments of automobiles (up 31.5%), semiconductors and parts
(up 8.3%), and chemical products (up 12.4%) posted a year-on-year increase. The
inventories of semiconductors and parts (down 23.0%), primary metals (down 18.1%), and
chemical products (down 18.0%) were down.
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector registered 80.2 percent, rising 2.5
percentage points month-on-month and landing in the 80 percent range for the first time
since June 2008.
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) 77.2 78.3 77.3 73.7 78.9 78.7 77.7 80.2
activity Production capacity 5.2 5.3 4.9 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.2
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period
Source: Statistics Korea
Exports (y-o-y, %)
-12.4 (Jun 2009) -21.8 (Jul) -20.9 (Aug) -7.8 (Sep) -8.3 (Oct)
18 November 2009
6-1 Industrial production
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3 Inventory
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin 19
7. Service sector activity
Service activity in September increased 2.6 percent from the previous month and 4.2
percent from a year earlier with more working days, as Chuseok holidays fall in October this
year instead of September.
By business category, healthcare & social welfare services (up 11.7%), real estate & renting
services (up 10.1%), and financial & insurance services (up 8.9%) led the year-on-year
increase in the service sector.
Meanwhile, business facility management & business support services (down 1.2%) and
educational services (down 0.4%) declined from a year earlier.
Service activity in October is expected to continue with modest gains despite reduced
working days due to Chuseok holidays, as preliminary indicators of consumer goods sales
such as retailers’ sales and automobile sales remained robust.
20 November 2009
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8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in September climbed by 71,000 from a year earlier, with
the government’s continuing efforts to create jobs.
The employment rate stood at 59.2 percent, down 0.6 percentage points compared to the
same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points year-
on-year to 3.4 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 1.5 percentage points from
a year earlier to 7.6 percent.
(Change from same period in previous year, thousand)
2008 2009
Annual Sep Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep
Unemployment rate (%) 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.4
Employment rate (%) 59.5 59.8 58.5 60.3 59.9 59.4 57.4 59.3 59.1 58.8 59.2
22 November 2009
8-1 Number of employed and employment growth
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin 23
9. Financial market
The drop in the domestic stock market was due to low investor sentiment, profit-taking after
a sudden surge, and worries about the won’s appreciation. Investor sentiment worsened on
concerns over a delay in the global economic recovery as US housing and consumption
related indicators remained sluggish.
Foreign investors continued their net-buying of Korean shares since July in line with
expanded investment into emerging markets by foreign investors.
The exchange rate fell to 1,155 won during the month with the dollar remaining weak. It,
thereafter, turned to a slight increase as investors’ appetite for safe assets grew amid the
global stock market adjustment and the possibility of early exit strategies.
The won/yen exchange rate also fell to the upper 1,200 won range with the appreciation of
won.
(End-period)
2006 2007 2008 2009
Dec Dec Dec Sep Oct Change1
Won/Dollar 929.8 936.1 1,259.5 1,178.1 1,182.5 6.5
Won/100Yen 783.4 828.6 1,396.8 1,315.6 1,299.3 7.5
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24 November 2009
9-1 Stock prices
Economic Bulletin 25
9.3 Bond market
Long-term bond yields continued to rise in October with an improvement in real economic
indicators. For short-term bond yields, however, the pace of increase moderated.
In particular, the long-term bond yields hit the highest this year after mid October, as
improved real economic indicators fueled expectations over an economic recovery. On
October 28, yields on Treasury bonds with a 3-year maturity reached 4.62 percent, a record
high this year.
(End-period)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Sep Oct Change1
Call rate (1 day) 3.76 4.60 5.02 3.02 1.99 2.00 2.01 1
CD (91 days) 4.09 4.86 5.82 3.93 2.57 2.75 2.79 4
Treasury bonds (3 yrs) 5.08 4.92 5.74 3.41 4.38 4.39 4.44 5
Corporate bonds (3 yrs) 5.52 5.29 6.77 7.72 5.61 5.53 5.58 5
Treasury bonds (5 yrs) 5.36 5.00 5.78 3.77 4.91 4.81 4.94 13
1. Basis point changes in August 2009 from end December 2008
In September, bank deposits increased further as fund inflows from individual and corporate
investors were boosted by higher deposit rates and a perception that the stock market had
reached a temporary peak.
Asset management company (AMC) deposits declined at a much faster pace affected by
redemptions of equity funds as well as less money inflows into MMFs with fund withdrawals
by individual and corporate investors.
26 November 2009
9-4 Interest rates
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin 27
10. Balance of payments
Korea’s current account recorded a US$4.20 billion surplus in September.
The goods account surplus expanded to US$5.45 billion from US$3.33 billion a month earlier,
thanks to robust exports amid the global economic recovery and increased working days.
The service account deficit decreased to US$1.63 billion from the previous month’s US$1.79
billion, due to the improved travel account and increased revenue from freight transportation.
The income account surplus shrank slightly to US$550 million after posting US$590 million
in the previous month, due to a decrease in dividend payments.
The current transfer account deficit contracted to US$160 million from the previous month’s
US$220 million with increased inflow of overseas remittance.
(US$ billion)
2008 2009
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep Jan-Sep
Current account -6.41 -5.21 -0.13 -8.58 7.52 8.58 13.17 4.36 1.91 4.20 32.22
- Goods balance 5.99 -1.22 5.72 -3.48 4.97 8.35 17.63 6.13 3.33 5.45 40.88
- Service balance -16.73 -5.07 -4.27 -5.69 -1.70 -1.88 -4.02 -1.89 -1.79 -1.63 -11.22
- Income balance 5.11 1.69 -0.65 1.36 2.71 0.83 0.18 0.48 0.59 0.55 2.63
- Current transfers -0.77 -0.61 -0.94 -0.77 1.55 1.28 -0.61 -0.36 -0.22 -0.16 -0.07
Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account in September posted a net inflow of US$7.24 billion.
The direct investment account slightly expanded the net outflow to register US$230 million
from the previous month’s deficit of US$110 million due to an increase in overseas
investment by locals.
The portfolio investment account significantly increased the net outflow to record US$7.92
billion from US$4.06 billion a month earlier as foreign investment in the Korean stock and
bond market rose considerably.
The financial derivatives account deficit contracted from the previous month’s US$720
million to post US$300 million, as revenue related to overseas financial derivative
transactions increased.
The other investment account shifted to a net outflow of US$140 million from the previous
month’s net inflow of US$2.18 billion as the IMF reduced the allocation of Special Drawing
Rights (SDR) to US$300 million from US$3.4 billion a month earlier.
The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$3.5 billion in October as the
trade balance posted a surplus of US$3.79 billion.
28 November 2009
10-1 Current account balance
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin 29
11. Prices and international commodity prices
11.1 Prices
Consumer prices in October decreased 0.3 percent month-on-month while rising 2.0 percent
year-on-year.
The overall price index was down 0.3 percent month-on-month as prices for agricultural,
livestock and fishery products as well as oil product prices went down. Prices of agricultural,
livestock and fishery products declined 1.1 percent from the previous month as the autumn
harvest season continued with favorable weather conditions.
Prices of oil products decreased 3.1 percent from a month earlier as weak international oil prices
from end-September to early-October were reflected and the won’s value appreciated.
Public utility charges were slightly up 0.1 percent month-on-month with higher medical service fees.
Personal service charges held steady with stabilized expenses for dining-out, the won’s appreciation
and the continuing deflation gap.
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 2.6 percent
year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were
up 1.5 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
30 November 2009
11-1 Prices
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
Economic Bulletin 31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices
International oil prices in October hit a record high price this year reaching a monthly average
of US$70 level, affected by the weak dollar and prospects of global economic recovery.
(US$/barrel, period average)
2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual Annual Annual Dec May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Dubai crude 61.6 68.4 94.3 40.5 57.9 69.4 65.0 71.4 67.7 73.2
Brent crude 65.1 72.8 97.5 40.4 57.5 68.6 64.6 72.9 67.5 72.8
WTI crude 66.0 72.3 99.9 41.6 59.1 69.7 64.2 71.1 69.4 75.8
Source: KOREAPDS
Domestic prices of oil products went down as weak international oil product prices from end-
September to early-October were reflected with the time lag and the won’s value
appreciated.
Prices of nickel and zinc soared month-on-month while international prices of grain including
corn, wheat and soybean rose due to concerns over a delay in harvests affected by
deteriorating weather conditions.
Non-ferrous metal prices excluding nickel and zinc increased moderately with expectations
of economic recovery amid oversupply concerns. As strikes at Canadian nickel mines
extended, nickel prices showed relative strength.
Grain prices moved upward due to concerns over a delay in harvests as cold weather
continued in the US. In addition, the delay in yield of corn and soybean affected the
seedtime of winter wheat, leading the wheat price increase.
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual Annual Annual Dec May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2,019 2,400 2,536 1,767 2,099 2,117 2,082 2,159 2,049 2,197
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
Source: KOREAPDS
32 November 2009
11-4 International oil prices
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Economic Bulletin 33
12. Real estate market
12.1 Housing market
In October, nationwide apartment sales prices were up 0.4 percent. The pace of increase,
however, decelerated as financial regulations have tightened up and the fall moving season
came closer to the end.
The Seoul metropolitan area, which is under the direct influence of stricter Debt-to-income
(DTI) regulations, significantly decelerated the weekly upward trend amid expectations over
sales of Bogeumjari Houses, affordable public apartments for low-income households.
The rental prices slowed the upward pace as transactions have decreased around Chuseok
holidays and the fall moving season approached the end, easing the imbalance between
demand and supply.
Apartment sales transactions in September surged 47.4 percent from 61,381 a year earlier to
post 90,490. The transactions were up 11.8 percent from the previous month.
34 November 2009
12-1 Real estate prices
Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin 35
12.2 Land market
Nationwide land prices in September rose 0.31 percent, decelerating its growing pace from
the previous month’s 0.36 percent. The fluctuation rate for the accumulated period from
January to September recorded 0.01 percent, shifting to a rise for the first time this year.
Affected by expectations over development projects such as the New Town project in
Goyang, land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area continued an upward trend as Seoul,
Incheon and Gyeonggi province saw land prices rising by 0.39 percent, 0.43 percent and
0.43 percent, respectively.
Nationwide land transactions in September expanded 30.8 percent or 53,000 land lots from
a year earlier to 226,000 land lots. In terms of gross area, land transactions were up 18.6
percent.
Land transactions in all cities and counties increased year-on-year in terms of land lots
driven by Busan (up 55.3%), Gyeonggi province (up 52.0%) and Daejeon (up 53.0%).
36 November 2009
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s
Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
Economic Bulletin 37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of the current economic
conditions, rose 0.1 points in September from the previous month, staying on an upward
track since March.
The volume of imports, the mining & manufacturing production index, the domestic
shipment index, the manufacturing operation ratio index and the service activity index
contributed to the upward track.
Components of the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index in September 2009 (m-o-m)
volume of imports (2.3%), mining & manufacturing production index (2.0%), domestic shipment index (1.6%),
manufacturing operation ratio index (1.5%), service activity index (0.5%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.0%),
wholesale & retail sales index (-0.3%), value of construction completed (-4.4%)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions,
went up 1.0 percentage point month-on-month in September, running on an upward track
since January.
The composite stock price index, the ratio of job openings to job seekers, the consumer
expectations index, and the volume of capital goods imports were up.
2009
Jan Feb Jun Jul Aug1 Sep1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) -1.9 0.0 2.1 1.2 0.9 0.5
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 92.4 92.0 95.4 96.2 96.7 96.8
(m-o-m, p) -2.2 -0.4 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) 0.3 1.1 2.6 1.4 1.0 0.7
12 month smoothed change
-4.0 -2.9 5.8 7.8 9.1 10.1
in leading composite index (%)
(m-o-m, %p) 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.1 1.3 1.0
1. Preliminary
38 November 2009
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin 39
Policy Issues
Korea-EU FTA
The Korea-EU FTA, concluded last July after eight rounds of talks since 2007, was initialed on
October 15. The trade package is expected to go into effect in 2010 following ratification by
each side.
The Korea-EU FTA is meaningful in that it is a trade agreement with the world’s largest
economic bloc, and is expected to serve as a bridgehead for future trade deals with other
European nations. As of 2008, the EU ranked top in terms of GDP, producing US$ 18.4
trillion, or 30.2 percent of the total global GDP.
1. Manufactured goods
Customs duties shall be eliminated in five years on the Korean goods and in seven years on
the goods from the EU.
40 November 2009
For motor vehicles, both Korea and the EU will eliminate tariffs on cars in three or five years,
depending on engine size. Both sides will scrap tariffs on small cars (1,500cc or smaller) over
three years and on large cars (larger than 1,500cc) over five years.
Under the Korea-US (KORUS) FTA, Korea’s auto tariff will be eliminated immediately while
the US would remove its tariff on small cars (3,000cc or smaller) immediately and on large
cars (larger than 3,000cc) over three years.
2. Agricultural products
Reflecting the sensitivity of the agricultural products, efforts were made to get as much
exceptional treatment as possible. Refrigerated or frozen pork imported from the EU will be
subject to customs duties for ten years from the date of the FTA’s entry into force, longer
than what is scheduled in the KORUS FTA.
Other measures to protect major sensitive products include exemption from tariff
concession, application of current tariff rates, introduction of seasonal duties, subheading
split and application of special safeguards for agricultural products.
Both the Korean and EU vehicles are subject to meeting the United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe (UN ECE) safety standards, instead of complying with the safety
regulations set by each EU member states or Korea. As for the requirement to protect
environment, Fleet Average System (FAS)* will be applied to the vehicles from the EU, with
an exception to automakers exporting less than 10 thousand vehicles annually, to which
interim measures will be applied.
*An emission control system which regulates average emission levels of total sold vehicles, instead of
controlling the emission level of an individual vehicle. The system is aimed at allowing flexibility for
automakers.
Standards on On-Board Diagnostics (OBD)* are agreed: The EU’s new OBD standards to be
introduced in 2014 shall be considered as complying with the Korean guideline.
*A device that monitors the emission control system in the car. The device sets a warning light on the
dashboard when problems with emission control detected.
Economic Bulletin 41
4. Rules of origin
The Korea-EU FTA requires less restrictive rules of origin for machinery, electric and
electronic goods, and automobiles: The products made of 45 to 50 percent of non
originating parts or materials will be classified as originating products. Products
manufactured in the Gaesung Industrial Complex will be eligible for preferential tariffs as are
products made in Korea; detailed guidelines will be set one year after the agreement’s entry
into force.
5. Duty drawback
In principle, current duty drawback system will be in place for five years from the FTA’s entry
into force. After the period, safeguard measures to limit refund rate shall be introduced
when certain conditions in the agreement are fulfilled.
Markets for professional services such as legal, accounting & tax services, ground transport
& postal services and construction will be opened at the similar level to the KORUS FTA. The
environmental services market will be opened more widely in the Korea-EU FTA than in the
KORUS FTA. Foreign investors will also have wider market access with the Korea-EU trade
deal, as the trade deal covers not only investment in service sectors but also non-service
sectors including manufacturing and mining. However, there is no investor-state dispute
settlement (ISD) provisions in the Korea-EU FTA since competency for investor protection
matters rests with individual EU member states.
7. Geographical indications
The two sides agreed on the protection of geographical indications (GIs) for agricultural
products, wines and spirits as specified in the annex to the agreement. However, currently
registered trademarks in relation to protected geographical indications will be guaranteed
for further use.
42 November 2009
II. Expected effects
1. Macroeconomic effects
The Korea-EU FTA is expected to positively affect the Korean economy as much as the
KORUS FTA: The trade pack with the EU will help the economy grow through expanded
exports and increased foreign investment based on market opening, and by advancing the
economic system to be more transparent, reliable, open, and sustainable. Expanded exports
and investment are projected to contribute to job creation in both the manufacturing and
service sectors. Also, consumers will have more choices from a wide variety of products at
lower prices.
The FTA’s impact on the manufacturing sector is expected to be tremendous, given that the
EU market for the sector is bigger than the US’s, and EU’s tariff rates are higher than those of
the US. The auto industry is projected to benefit most from the trade deal, as the EU tariff on
motor vehicles is as high as 10 percent. The next most beneficiaries will likely be
manufactures of electric and electronic goods, textiles, machinery, and petrochemicals, in
order of export value.
The imports that would see large increases are, in order of import value, electric and
electronic goods, machinery, fine chemicals, automobiles and textiles, with machinery and
fine chemicals imported from Germany and France substituting those from Japan and the US.
Economic Bulletin 43
3. Effects on agricultural sector
The effect of the Korea-EU FTA on Korea’s agricultural sector is projected to be limited to
some livestock products such as pork, dairy products and chicken since EU’s
competitiveness in agriculture is relatively low.
Yellowfin tunas, fish pastes, frozen Top shells, rock fish, anchovies, bluefin
Marine products
squids, etc. tunas, etc.
Access to the EU’s media market will be easier through the co-production agreement*, which
will also help attract investment into jointly producing audio-visual contents.
*Under the co-production agreement, co-produced audio-visual contents in compliance with the agreement
shall be deemed to be national productions in the territory of both Korea and the EU and shall thus be fully
entitled to all the benefits.
Financial market opening is expected to be mutually beneficial, as the opening will boost
competitiveness of both markets through increased competition and advanced financial
technologies to be imported.
Environmental services market opening seems unlikely to much influence the domestic
market, as the sector carries little weight in the overall economy.
44 November 2009
Economic
News Briefing
On the production side, the manufacturing output increased 8.7 percent compared to the previous quarter led by
semiconductors, electronic parts and automobiles, while the service activity expanded 0.6 percent boosted by
transportation & storage services and wholesale & retail sales. On the expenditure side, private consumption and
facility investment continued to gain with quarter-on-quarter increases of 1.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively.
Meanwhile, the IMF projection for the Korean economy is 3.6 percent growth next year after contracting 1.0
percent this year, in its Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Asia and the Pacific released on October 29. The
upbeat outlook for Korea is in line with the organization’s global economic outlook for the second half of this year
announced on October 2 and the organization’s previous REO released in April this year.
In addition, the World Bank has raised Korea’s growth outlook in a report assessing economic conditions of major
Asian countries. The international financial organization has revised upwards Korea’s economic growth for this
year and next year to -0.7 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively. It is the first time for an international organization
to forecast the Asia’s fourth largest economy will contract -0 percent level.
Economic Bulletin 45
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 1
20091
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1.1 0.4 0.2 -5.1 0.1 2.6
GDP 2.9 (0.6)
(5.5)2 (4.3) (3.1) (-3.4) (-4.2) (-2.2)
Agriculture, forestry
5.8 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -1.7 4.6 (2.9)
and fishery
Manufacturing 1.2 1.7 0.1 -11.9 -3.4 8.9 8.7 (0.6)
Construction -1.4 -2.2 1.1 -4.2 5.9 -0.2 -0.5 (0.6)
Services3 0.8 0.1 0.5 -1.4 0.3 1.1 0.6 (0.8)
Private consumption 1.1 -0.2 0.0 -4.6 0.4 3.6 1.4 (0.6)
Facility investment -0.4 0.4 0.2 -14.2 -11.2 10.1 8.9 (-8.7)
Construction investment -2.5 -0.3 0.1 -3.0 5.2 1.7 -2.1 (2.5)
Goods exports4 -0.7 2.5 -0.9 -12.6 -3.4 14.7 5.1 (1.8)
Goods imports 4
0.1 3.0 1.2 -15.7 -6.2 7.4 8.4 (-8.1)
GDI -1.7 1.0 -3.3 -2.2 0.1 5.4 0.4 (3.6)
*At 2005 chained prices, seasonally adjusted terms
1. Preliminary
2. Figures in parenthesis denote percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms.
3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services,
public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services and other services are included.
4. FOB basis
On the same day, President Lee emphasized the importance of a close coordination between
countries as the key to overcome the global financial crisis at the 12th ASEAN+3 (Korea,
China, Japan) Summit. The leaders exchanged views on a number of key issues such as the
economic crisis, climate change and food & energy security.
Meanwhile, President Lee stressed East Asian regional cooperation to solve the problems of
climate change, international financial crisis, natural disasters and North Korea’s nuclear
programs, at the East Asia Summit (EAS) on October 25. The EAS meetings are scheduled
with the ASEAN+3 meetings and the EAS members include all members of ASEAN+3 and
additional members from India, New Zealand and Australia.
46 November 2009
On November 15, leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) called for a new
growth paradigm and an expanded trade and investment agenda that will strengthen
regional economic integration in the region. Attending the APEC meeting held in Singapore,
President Lee Myung-bak stressed that Korea, as the host of the G-20 Summit next year, will
act as a bridge between the APEC and G-20, reflecting opinions of developing countries and
newly emerging economies. The Korean president’s state visit to Singapore marked his 11th
and final overseas trip for this year. Overall, President Lee traveled to 16 nations and
participated in 38 summits.
KDB divides into Korea Finance Corp. and KDB Financial Group
On October 28, the Korea Development Bank (KDB) officially separated into Korea Finance
Corporation (KoFC) and KDB Financial Group (KDB FG), paving the way for the organization’s
planned privatization in 2011.
KoFC will continue to provide financial assistance to local small- and medium-sized
companies and nurture industries, a role which the KDB has played for decades. Meanwhile,
KDB FG, with KDB, Daewoo Securities, KDB Capital, KDB Asset Management and Korea
Infrastructure Asset Management Corporation (KIAMCO) as its subsidiaries, sets the vision
to become Korea’s leading global corporate and investment bank.
KFC is launched with capital of 3 trillion won and assets of 23.7 trillion won while KDB FG has
assets of 1.6 trillion won and capital of 1.1 trillion won via equities and cash equivalents to be
transferred from KDB.
The volatility continued to fall throughout the quarter, and the intraday and day-on-day
figures were 6.7 won and 5.6 won in September, respectively, similar to levels before the
Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008. The intraday and day-on-day volatilities were
6.9 won and 4.8 won in August 2008.
The day-on-day change of the won/dollar rate averaged 0.51 percent in the third quarter.
This was higher than the volatilities of other Asian currencies including the Singapore dollar,
but lower than those of Eastern European and Latin American currencies including the Polish
zloty and the Brazilian real. It was even lower than those of major advanced countries’
currencies except the euro.
Economic Bulletin 47
Korea becomes full-fledged member of FATF
Korea has been accepted as a full member to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) during
the FATF Plenary held in Paris from October 14 to 16, after having gained an observer status
in August 2006. The FATF is an international organization whose main purpose is to develop
and promote policies regarding anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing
(AML/CFT). Korea’s accession to the membership shows proven commitment made by the
Korean authorities to ensure that Korea’s anti-money laundering and counter terrorist
financing system meets the international standards, and to continue to play an active role in
the fight against money laundering and financing terrorism.
The accession to the FATF will increase transparency in the local financial system and help
Korean financial institutions operate overseas businesses more efficiently. They were
originally required to submit additional documents before doing overseas businesses since
Korea was not a member of the FATF. In particular, as the recent G20 Summit called for
efforts to enhance transparency in the financial markets and a stronger role by the FATF,
Korea is expected to increase its role in the FATF.
Following the acquisition of Harvest Energy, Korea’s daily production of crude oil will
increase from the current 188,000 barrels to 241,000 barrels. Acquiring the Calgary-based
company will also increase Korea’s oil self-sufficiency level to 8.1 percent of the nation’s
energy demands, up from the current 6.3 percent. The Korean state-run oil company is
currently examining three to four foreign energy companies as an M&A target.
48 November 2009
Statistical
Appendices
Tables & Figures
1. National accounts
2. Production, shipment and inventory
3. Production capacity and operation ratio
4. Consumer goods sales index
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment,
and estimated facility investment index
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI
9. Balance of payments (I)
10. Balance of payments (II)
11. Prices
12. Employment
13. Financial indicators
14. Monetary indicators
15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin 49
1. National accounts
(year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices)
50 November 2009
Growth rate by economic activity
Economic Bulletin 51
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3
(constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Service
Production Shipment Inventory
Period Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y production Y-o-Y
index index index
change (%) change (%) change (%) index change (%)
52 November 2009
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Economic Bulletin 53
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5
(constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Consumer
goods
Period Durable Semi-durable Non-durable
sales
Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y
index
change (%) change (%) change (%) change (%)
54 November 2009
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
See graph 2-6
Domestic consumer
goods shipment index Consumer
Period (2005=100) Durable Non-durable sentiment index
Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y
change (%) change (%) change (%)
Economic Bulletin 55
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment
and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2
Domestic machinery orders received Domestic
Estimated
excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) machinery
facility investment
Period shipment
index
excluding ship
Total Public Private (2005=100)
Manufacturing (2005=100)
56 November 2009
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction
orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Economic Bulletin 57
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI
See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Cycle of
Leading Coincident
coincident
Period index Y-o-Y index BSI (results) BSI (prospects)
index
(2005=100) change (%) (2005=100)
(2005=100)
58 November 2009
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2
(million US$)
Economic Bulletin 59
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3
(million US$)
60 November 2009
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3
(2005 = 100)
Producer prices
Consumer prices Export & import prices
(2005=100)
Period
All Items Commodity Service Core All items Commodity Export Import
Economic Bulletin 61
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
2008 1 23,738 22,964 4,022 17,651 3.3 16,032 8,815 5,115 2,102
2 23,703 22,884 4,017 17,510 3.5 15,836 8,804 5,055 1,977
3 24,114 23,305 3,999 17,732 3.4 15,993 8,898 5,023 2,073
4 24,495 23,711 4,001 17,929 3.2 16,258 8,894 5,127 2,238
5 24,692 23,939 3,987 18,046 3.0 16,405 9,010 5,165 2,231
6 24,727 23,963 3,993 18,067 3.1 16,385 9,039 5,132 2,214
7 24,673 23,903 3,975 18,088 3.1 16,363 9,054 5,163 2,146
8 24,380 23,617 3,899 17,872 3.1 16,104 9,107 4,970 2,027
9 24,456 23,734 3,928 17,951 3.0 16,221 9,142 5,015 2,064
10 24,582 23,847 3,945 18,005 3.0 16,314 9,138 5,034 2,142
11 24,566 23,816 3,897 18,086 3.1 16,377 9,111 5,071 2,195
12 24,032 23,245 3,888 17,935 3.3 16,189 9,068 5,082 2,040
2009 1 23,709 22,861 3,895 17,663 3.6 16,053 9,102 4,982 1,969
2 23,667 22,742 3,842 17,539 3.9 15,953 9,194 4,862 1,897
3 24,062 23,110 3,813 17,701 4.0 16,076 9,174 4,941 1,961
4 24,456 23,524 3,846 17,899 3.8 16,353 9,227 5,051 2,076
5 24,658 23,720 3,846 18,016 3.8 16,484 9,316 5,076 2,092
6 24,927 23,967 3,836 18,251 3.9 16,736 9,340 5,281 2,115
7 24,756 23,828 3,802 18,210 3.7 16,589 9,383 5,255 1,952
8 24,525 23,620 3,761 18,048 3.7 16,479 9,472 5,117 1,890
9 24,630 23,805 3,810 18,155 3.4 16,687 9,606 5,151 1,931
10 24,655 23,856 3,858 18,130 3.2 16,690 9,628 5,170 1.892
Y-o-Y change (%)
2007 1.0 1.2 -1.0 2.2 - 2.7 5.1 0.6 -1.2
2008 0.5 0.6 -1.3 1.3 - 1.5 4.5 -1.8 -2.6
62 November 2009
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4
(period average)
Economic Bulletin 63
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5
(period average) (billion won)
64 November 2009
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
Economic Bulletin 65
Editor-in-Chief
Park, Chul-Kyu (MOSF)
Editorial Board
Kim, Young-Min (MOSF)
Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI)
Lee, In-Sook (KDI)
Coordinators
Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF)
Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI)
Editors
Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF)
Kim, Sun-Young (MOSF)
Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI)
Ministry of Labor
http://english.molab.go.kr/english