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CcLober 2012


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!"#$%&'()*(+($,-

1hls reporL was produced by sLudenLs and sLaff aL Lhe Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc aL Columbla Law School. 1he
prlmary auLhor and researcher was ChanLal CruL, L.L.M. '12, wlLh conLrlbuLlons by naureen Shah, AcLlng
ulrecLor of Lhe Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc and AssoclaLe ulrecLor of Lhe CounLerLerrorlsm and Puman 8lghLs
ro[ecL, Puman 8lghLs lnsLlLuLe aL Columbla Law School. AddlLlonal research and edlLlng were provlded
by Laura C'nelll, !.u. '13, Sarah MechlovlLz Saadoun, !.u. '14, Zoe PuLchlnson, L.L.M. '12 and uanlel
Mule, !.u. '13. CreLa Moseson, program coordlnaLor aL Lhe Puman 8lghLs lnsLlLuLe aL Columbla Law
School, and Ashley klnseLh, !.u. '13, provlded medla ouLreach supporL.
1he Columbla Law School Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc and Lhe Columbla Law School Puman 8lghLs lnsLlLuLe are
graLeful Lo Lhe Cpen SocleLy loundaLlons and 8ulllLL loundaLlon for Lhelr flnanclal supporL of Lhe
lnsLlLuLe's CounLerLerrorlsm and Puman 8lghLs ro[ecL, and Lo Columbla Law School for lLs ongolng
supporL.

CopyrlghL 2012
Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc aL Columbla Law School
All rlghLs reserved
----------------------------------------------------------
rlnLed ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes of Amerlca.

Coples of Lhls reporL are avallable for download aL:
hLLp://web.law.columbla.edu/human-rlghLs-lnsLlLuLe

Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc, Columbla Law School
!erome Creene Pall
433 W. 116
Lh
SL.
new ?ork, new ?ork 10027-7297


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!"#$%&$' )*"$+ ,%*&-+ )+.%/0


Summary & 8ecommendaLlons ................................................................................................................... 4
8ecommendaLlons ....................................................................................................................................... 7
l. lnLroducLlon: urone ueaLh LsLlmaLes as lalse Assurance ln ubllc uebaLe ............................................. 9
ll. Cur MeLhodology ................................................................................................................................... 11
lll. Weaknesses of Medla 8eporLs as a MeLrlc for urone SLrlke ueaLhs .................................................... 14
lv. Cur 8ecounL and LsLlmaLe of urone SLrlke ueaLhs .............................................................................. 20
v. Comparlson of Lhe 1racklng CrganlzaLlon LsLlmaLes ............................................................................. 27
vl. u.S. CovernmenL's 8esponslblllLy Lo AccounL for urone SLrlke ueaLhs ............................................... 34


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/0++123 4 5("%++($)1,6%$-
opular debaLe on u.S. drone sLrlkes ofLen cenLers on how many lndlvlduals are kllled, and whlch of Lwo
caLegorles Lhe lndlvlduals kllled fall lnLo - mlllLanL or clvlllan. u.S. offlclals emphaslze Lhe preclslon of
drone Lechnology and conLend LhaL exLremely few clvlllans have been kllled. ?eL oLhers have quesLloned
Lhese clalms and sLaLed LhaL Lhere ls evldence Lo suggesL LhaL deaLhs, and clvlllan deaLhs ln parLlcular,
are much hlgher Lhan u.S. offlclals admlL.
1he uncerLalnLy abouL clvlllan deaLhs ls largely due Lo Lhe u.S. governmenL's reslsLance Lo openly
provldlng lnformaLlon abouL sLrlkes. ln Lhe absence of offlclal daLa, Lhe mosL common source for drone
sLrlke casualLy flgures ls news reporLs abouL parLlcular sLrlkes. Some organlzaLlons have caLalogued and
aggregaLed Lhese news reporLs Lo provlde overall esLlmaLes of Lhe LoLal number of lndlvlduals kllled,
lncludlng Lhe number of mlllLanLs" versus clvlllans." 1he 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm, Long War
!ournal and new Amerlca loundaLlon (Lracklng organlzaLlons") are among Lhe mosL lnfluenLlal of such
organlzaLlons, and Lhelr work has ln many lnsLances caLalyzed debaLe abouL Lhe effecLlveness and
humanlLarlan cosL of sLrlkes.
We are concerned abouL overrellance on Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' esLlmaLes of drone sLrlke casualLles,
alLhough we flnd Lhe esLlmaLes valuable and a good falLh efforL. 1he esLlmaLes reflecL an echo chamber
of sorLs: Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons collecL news reporLs of parLlcular sLrlkes and make an esLlmaLe of
who ls kllled based on Lhem, Lhese esLlmaLes are Lhen regularly clLed and repeaLed ln subsequenL news
sLorles and medla analysls pleces.
ln Lhe llmlLed publlc debaLe on drones, Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' esLlmaLes subsLlLuLe for hard facLs
and lnformaLlon LhaL oughL Lo be provlded by Lhe u.S. governmenL. We-Lhe publlc, Lhe analysLs and
experLs, and Lhe pollcymakers-sLlll do noL know Lhe Lrue lmpacL or humanlLarlan cosL of drones, Lhe
esLlmaLes, Lhough well-lnLended, may provlde false assurance LhaL we know Lhe cosLs and can falrly
assess wheLher Lo conLlnue drone sLrlkes. lurLhermore, where Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' esLlmaLes
slgnlflcanLly undercounL Lhe number of clvlllans kllled by drone sLrlkes, Lhey may dlsLorL our percepLlons
and provlde false [usLlflcaLlon Lo pollcymakers who wanL Lo expand drone sLrlkes Lo new locaLlons, and
agalnsL new groups.
8ecause Lhe sLakes are hlgh, Lhe Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc seL ouL Lo Lhoroughly examlne Lhe daLa
and meLhodology of Lhe Lhree Lracklng organlzaLlons. Cur flndlngs are Lwo-fold. llrsL, desplLe Lhe sLrong
efforLs of Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons, Lhelr esLlmaLes of clvlllan casualLles are hampered
meLhodologlcally and pracLlcally. 1wo of Lhe organlzaLlons, accordlng Lo our lndependenL revlew of Lhe
medla sources avallable, slgnlflcanLly and conslsLenLly underesLlmaLed Lhe poLenLlal number of clvlllans
kllled ln aklsLan durlng Lhe year 2011. Second, whlle some of Lhe flaws we ldenLlfy can be flxed, oLhers
are lnherenL Lo Lhe process-and Lhese lnherenL flaws underscore LhaL Lhe u.S. governmenL has Lhe
responslblllLy Lo sLep ln and descrlbe lLs own accounLlng on Lhe clvlllan casualLy quesLlon. 1he Lracklng
organlzaLlons provlde lmporLanL lnformaLlon, buL ln llghL of Lhe meLhodologlcal and pracLlcal llmlLaLlons
we ldenLlfy, Lhelr esLlmaLes are an lnadequaLe and dangerous subsLlLuLe for offlclal governmenL
esLlmaLes and lnformaLlon regardlng clvlllan deaLhs.

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We noLe LhaL some of our concluslons descrlbed below are corroboraLed by oLher sLudles, ln parLlcular,
a SepLember 2012 reporL by Lhe human rlghLs cllnlcs aL n?u School of Law and SLanford Law School LhaL
examlned a dlsLlncL and more recenL daLaseL. 1aken LogeLher, Lhe varlous sLudles underscore Lhe need
for a u.S. governmenL accounLlng of drone sLrlke deaLhs, as well as greaLer care by medla ouLleLs and
observers ln descrlblng Lhe lmpacL of drone sLrlkes.
llows lo MeJlo kepottloq oo utooe 5ttlke ueotbs. We analyzed Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' daLa
collecLlon for sLrlkes ln aklsLan durlng 2011 and found LhaL whlle Lhelr esLlmaLes are useful, Lhey
necessarlly reflecL Lhe blases and flaws of Lhelr medla reporL sources, l.e., Lhe news sLorles abouL
parLlcular sLrlkes whlch Lhey aggregaLe Lo arrlve aL Lhelr own esLlmaLes. Medla coverage of drone sLrlkes
ls lnconslsLenL, and lL ls llkely LhaL some deaLhs and even enLlre sLrlkes are noL capLured by Lracklng
organlzaLlons, parLlcularly Lo Lhe exLenL Lhey rely on Lngllsh-language medla sources. 1he medla reporLs
ofLen rely on very llmlLed sources, ln parLlcular Lhe word of anonymous aklsLanl offlclals who wlll noL
puL Lhelr names Lo a sLaLemenL. 1here ls no sLandard deflnlLlon LhaL Lhe medla sources use Lo caLegorlze
a person as mlllLanL or a clvlllan, nor a sLandardlzed measure by whlch Lhe medla sources welgh and
corroboraLe Lhelr lnformaLlon.
Oot kecooot. Lxamlnlng Lhe same medla reporLs LhaL Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons clLed, we found a
slgnlflcanLly hlgher number of reporLed deaLhs overall and clvlllan deaLhs ln parLlcular Lhan ls reflecLed
ln Lhe counLs of Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon and Long War !ournal, our counL was slmllar Lo LhaL of Lhe
8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm. Cf Lhe Lhree organlzaLlons, only Lhe 8ureau has conslsLenLly
purporLed Lo acLlvely Lrack clvllloo casualLles-as opposed Lo focuslng on provldlng an esLlmaLe of Lhe
overall number of lndlvlduals kllled. neverLheless, news analysls and pollLlcal commenLary frequenLly
clLe new Amerlca loundaLlon and Long War !ournal's numbers ln maklng concluslons abouL Lhe lmpacL
of drone sLrlkes on clvlllans and local communlLles. Lxcluslve or heavy rellance on Lhe casualLy counLs of
Lhese Lwo organlzaLlons ls noL approprlaLe because of Lhe slgnlflcanL meLhodologlcal flaws we ldenLlfy.
Whlle we do noL agree wlLh Lhe 8ureau's analysls of medla sources ln all cases, lL appears Lo have a
more meLhodologlcally sound counL of clvlllan casualLles, commensuraLe wlLh lLs speclal focus on LhaL
lssue.
Cur recounL found reporLs of beLween 72 and 133 clvlllans kllled ln 2011 aklsLan drone sLrlkes, wlLh 32
of Lhe reporLedly clvlllan dead ldenLlfled by name - a relaLlvely sLrong lndlcaLor of rellablllLy. 8y
comparlson, new Amerlca loundaLlon's counL ls [usL 3 Lo 9 clvlllans" kllled durlng Lhls perlod, Long War
!ournal's counL ls 30 clvlllans kllled. ln percenLage Lerms, and based on Lhelr and our mlnlmum numbers,
we counLed 2300 percenL more clvlllan" casualLles Lhan Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon, and 140 percenL
more clvlllan" casualLles Lhan new Amerlca's clvlllan" and unknown" casualLy counLs comblned. We
counLed 140 percenL more mlnlmum clvlllan" casualLles Lhan Lhe Long War !ournal. 1he 8ureau of
lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm's counL of beLween 68 Lo 137 clvlllans kllled ln aklsLan durlng 2011 ls closesL Lo
our own: we counLed only 3.9 percenL more mlnlmum clvlllan casualLles. We descrlbe our sLandards for
Lhe recounL below.
lL ls lmporLanL Lo noLe LhaL desplLe Lhe greaL care we Look ln revlewlng Lhe daLa and orlglnal medla
sources, our recounL does noL purporL Lo be rellable or an accuraLe lndlcaLor of Lhe acLual number of

4 #$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

clvlllan or mlllLanL" casualLles of u.S. drone sLrlkes. 8aLher, our recounL reflecLs Lhe exLenL Lo whlch
clvlllan casualLles LhaL are credlbly reporLed are noneLheless mlssed by Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons, lL
underscores LhaL Lhe publlc and pollcymakers do noL have compleLe lnformaLlon abouL Lhe
humanlLarlan cosL of drone sLrlkes.
ulsctepoocles lo 1tockloq Otqoolzotloos stlmotes: ln comparlng Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' sLudles, we
found LhaL Lhelr meLhodologles vary, leadlng each of Lhem Lo arrlve aL dlfferenL esLlmaLes of Lhe number
and ldenLlLy of lndlvlduals kllled. We ldenLlfled four prlnclpal reasons for Lhe dlscrepancles ln Lracklng
organlzaLlons' overall casualLy counLs and counLs per sLrlke: (1) Lhe number of medla sources Lhe
Lracklng organlzaLlons relled on, (2) Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm's use of non-medla sources,
(3) Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon and Long War !ournal's declslon noL Lo updaLe flgures ln some cases
where medla sources change Lhelr casualLy counLs ln subsequenL reporLs, and (4) Lhe Lracklng
organlzaLlons' declslons noL Lo lnclude some daLa from some of Lhelr own llsLed sources.
u.5. Covetomeots kespooslblllty to ltovlJe stlmotes: 1he dlscrepancles ln counLs by Lhe Lracklng
organlzaLlons-credlble and well-resourced lnsLlLuLlons-underscore Lhe dlfflculLy of galnlng an
accuraLe undersLandlng of Lhe lmpacL of drone sLrlkes from medla reporLs alone. 1he publlc and some
pollcymakers are compelled Lo rely on Lhese esLlmaLes Lo [udge Lhe lmpacL of drone sLrlkes because Lhe
u.S. governmenL has noL offlclally provlded lnformaLlon on drone sLrlke deaLhs. Whlle LouLlng Lhe
success of Lhe drone program and parLlcular hlgh-proflle sLrlkes, u.S. offlclals have avolded provldlng
speclflcs-and clLed naLlonal securlLy. 1he publlc has no lnformaLlon on how and wheLher Lhe u.S.
Lracks and lnvesLlgaLes poLenLlal clvlllan deaLhs.
?eL, ln oLher confllcL seLLlngs such as AfghanlsLan, u.S. offlclals have provlded some of Lhls lnformaLlon-
wlLhouL compromlslng u.S. securlLy. As Lhe u.S. governmenL anLlclpaLes Lhe conLlnued and expanded
use of leLhal drone Lechnology, lL owes Lhe publlc a genulne assessmenL of Lhe lmpacL of drone sLrlkes,
lncludlng Lhe effecLs on local clvlllan populaLlons. 1he u.S. governmenL should, Lo Lhe exLenL pracLlcable,
provlde lLs own esLlmaLe of Lhe number of lndlvlduals kllled and Lhelr ldenLlLles. Moreover, lnsLead of
seeklng Lo dlscredlL on-Lhe-ground reporLlng by [ournallsLs and human rlghLs groups LhaL puLs forward
evldence of clvlllan casualLles, Lhe u.S. governmenL should lnvesLlgaLe and address Lhe reporLed sLrlkes
and casualLles.
MeJlo & 1tockloq Otqoolzotloos koles: We encourage medla and observers Lo reconslder Lhe way Lhey
address Lhe quesLlon of who ls belng kllled ln drone sLrlkes. 1hey should quallfy Lhelr use of esLlmaLes
provlded by Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons. 1hese esLlmaLes are noL acLual body counLs-Lhey are reporLs
from a reglon where even seasoned [ournallsLs and lnvesLlgaLors suffer from llmlLed access, and where
wlLness sLaLemenLs and offlclals' explanaLlons may be blased. When medla and commenLaLors use
clvlllan casualLy esLlmaLes, Lhey should acknowledge Lhese llmlLaLlons and Lhe amblgulLy of Lerms llke
mlllLanL." Llkewlse, Lracklng organlzaLlons should acknowledge Lhe llmlLaLlons of Lhelr sLudles, and
address Lhe meLhodologlcal problems we have ldenLlfled.


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5("%++($)1,6%$-

1C 1PL u.S. CCvL8nMLn1
1. 1o Lhe exLenL pracLlcable, collecL and release esLlmaLes regardlng pasL drone sLrlke casualLles
and provlde lnformaLlon on new sLrlkes afLer operaLlons are compleLed, lncludlng Lhe followlng
lnformaLlon:
a. 1he LoLal number of lndlvlduals kllled or ln[ured ln u.S. drone sLrlkes ouLslde of
AfghanlsLan
b. 1he LoLal number of lndlvlduals kllled whom Lhe u.S. ldenLlfles as combaLanLs or persons
sub[ecL Lo dlrecL aLLack under u.S. legal sLandards or u.S. lnLerpreLaLlons of
humanlLarlan law.
c. 1he LoLal number of lndlvlduals kllled whom Lhe u.S. ldenLlfles as noL sub[ecL Lo dlrecL
aLLack under u.S. legal sLandards, lncludlng: clvlllans kllled collaLerally (l.e. kllled ln an
aLLack on a mlllLary ob[ecLlve, and noL ldenLlfled as a clvlllans dlrecLly parLlclpaLlng ln
hosLlllLles), clvlllans kllled mlsLakenly (e.g. kllled based on mlsLaken ldenLlLy), or
lndlvlduals oLherwlse afforded proLecLlon from dlrecL aLLack under u.S. legal sLandards
or u.S. lnLerpreLaLlons of humanlLarlan law.
d. 1he LoLal number of drone sLrlkes and Lhe locaLlon and daLe of each drone sLrlke.
2. ulsclose Lhe legal sLandards and deflnlLlons Lhe u.S. governmenL uses ln caLegorlzlng Lhe
lndlvlduals kllled as mlllLary LargeLs or lndlvlduals sub[ecL Lo dlrecL aLLack, clvlllans sub[ecL Lo
dlrecL aLLack (e.g. clvlllans dlrecLly parLlclpaLlng ln hosLlllLles), clvlllans enLlLled Lo proLecLlon and
kllled collaLerally.
3. lnvesLlgaLe credlble reporLs of clvlllan deaLh by medla and nongovernmenLal organlzaLlons, and
make amends Lo famllles and local communlLles where approprlaLe.
1C 18ACklnC C8CAnlZA1lCnS
1. ubllsh esLlmaLes wlLh a promlnenL dlsclalmer, lncludlng ln regard Lo Lhe sources for lLs daLaseL,
Lhe varlance of reporLlng among news ouLleLs and over Llme and Lhe poLenLlal blases of prlmary
sources on whlch ldenLlflcaLlon of mlllLanLs" versus clvlllans" are based.
2. lor organlzaLlons LhaL rely on a llmlLed seL of medla sources, expand Lhe range of medla sources
ln caLalogulng deaLhs, where more medla reporLs are unavallable, quallfy esLlmaLes as
lncompleLe or uncorroboraLed.
3. ln descrlblng Lhe flndlngs of medla reporLs LhaL clLe unnamed aklsLanl offlclals, acknowledge
Lhe poLenLlal pollLlcal blas or use quallfylng language such as alleged" and aLLrlbuLlve language
such as accordlng Lo." Where a declslon ls made Lo dlscard cerLaln reporLed flgures ln any
parLlcular sLrlke esLlmaLe, lndlcaLe whlch reporL was dlscarded and explaln why.

6 #$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

1C MLulA Anu CCMMLn1A1C8S
1. When descrlblng Lhe overall number and ldenLlLy of lndlvlduals kllled by drone sLrlkes:
a. 8eporLed" ueaLhs7 Acknowledge LhaL lnformaLlon abouL drone sLrlke casualLles ls
llmlLed as a general maLLer, and descrlbe Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' esLlmaLes as
collaLlons of tepotteJ deaLhs-ln a conLexL where vlrLually no medla reporLs are based
on lnformaLlon gaLhered lnslde Lhe reglon flrsLhand or able Lo be verlfled by Lhe medla
organlzaLlon lLself, and where medla reporLs someLlmes rely on blased sources, e.g.,
anonymous governmenL offlclals.
b. ulfferenL LsLlmaLes: When clLlng a slngle Lracklng organlzaLlon's esLlmaLe of Lhe number
or ldenLlLy of lndlvlduals kllled, acknowledge where Lhere are dlscrepancles beLween
LhaL esLlmaLe and esLlmaLes by oLher organlzaLlons.
2. When reporLlng on parLlcular sLrlkes:
a. LlmlLed reporLlng: Where approprlaLe, acknowledge llmlLs of reporLlng and lnformaLlon
abouL a sLrlke, e.g., LhaL lnformaLlon provlded by local sources could noL be verlfled due
Lo llmlLed access Lo Lhe reglon.
b. MlllLanL" ueaLhs:
l. 8egardlng esLlmaLes of Lhe number of mlllLanLs" versus clvlllans" kllled,
acknowledge LhaL Lhe deLermlnaLlon of wheLher a casualLy ls caLegorlzed as
mlllLanL" or clvlllan" ls amblguous and conLroverslal, e.g., by uslng Lhe Lerm
alleged."
ll. ln recognlLlon of lLs amblguous and conLroverslal characLer, avold uslng Lhe
word mlllLanL" unless quoLlng a governmenL offlclal, use more speclflc
ldenLlflers where posslble.


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78 7$,2%)0",6%$9 :2%$( :(1,; <-,6+1,(- 1- =1'-( !--021$"( 6$
>0?'6" :(?1,(
uebaLe abouL leLhal drone operaLlons by Lhe unlLed SLaLes ofLen cenLers on Lhe number of resulLlng
casualLles, and whlch of Lwo caLegorles lndlvlduals kllled fall lnLo-mlllLanL or clvlllan. ln explalnlng and
[usLlfylng Lhe expanslon of u.S. drone sLrlkes beyond AfghanlsLan, u.S. offlclals emphaslze Lhe preclslon
capablllLles of drone Lechnology and llmlLed number of clvlllan casualLles.
1
?eL oLhers have quesLloned
Lhese clalms and sLaLed LhaL Lhere ls evldence Lo suggesL LhaL deaLhs, and clvlllan deaLhs ln parLlcular,
are much hlgher Lhan u.S. offlclals admlL.
2

AlLhough Lhe Cbama admlnlsLraLlon has recenLly acknowledged lLs coverL drone sLrlke campalgns ln
aklsLan and ?emen, lL conLlnues Lo avold dlsclosure of baslc deLalls-lncludlng Lhe number and ldenLlLy
of lndlvlduals kllled. 8ecause of u.S. governmenL secrecy, Lhe mosL common source for casualLy flgures
ls medla reporLs from lnLernaLlonal and local news ouLleLs. Medla reporLs of parLlcular sLrlkes are
publlshed by a range of ouLleLs: promlnenL WesLern newspapers, lnLernaLlonal wlre servlces, reglonal
news agencles and aklsLanl newspapers. new Amerlca loundaLlon, Long War !ournal and 8ureau of
lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm (Lracklng organlzaLlons") are among a number of oLher organlzaLlons LhaL Lrack
Lhese medla reporLs and, caLaloglng Lhe reporLs, provlde esLlmaLes of Lhe LoLal number of lndlvlduals
kllled, lncludlng Lhe number of mlllLanLs" kllled.
Cver Lhe lasL year especlally, Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' esLlmaLes have permeaLed and slgnlflcanLly
lmpacLed debaLe on drone sLrlkes. news analysls and commenLary by pollLlcal observers and experLs
ofLen clLe Lhese esLlmaLes. Lven human rlghLs experLs, such as Lhe u.n. Speclal 8apporLeur on

1
resldenL Cbama has descrlbed drone sLrlkes as preclse, preclslon sLrlkes agalnsL Al Caeda and Lhelr
afflllaLes." 5ee ChrlsLl arsons and Mlchael A. Memoll, Cbama Cpens up abouL urone SLrlkes ln
aklsLan," L.A. 1lmes, !anuary 31, 2012 (quoLlng Cbama ln a vlrLual lnLervlew" on Coogle+ and
?ou1ube). Cbama admlnlsLraLlon offlclals have repeaLedly emphaslzed LhaL drone and oLher advanced
Lechnology can ensure LhaL Lhe besL lnLelllgence ls avallable for plannlng and carrylng ouL operaLlons"
wlLh Lhe resulL LhaL Lhe rlsk of clvlllan casualLles can be mlnlmlzed or avolded alLogeLher." varlous
admlnlsLraLlon offlclals have spoken ln nearly verbaLlm Lerms. 5ee ALLorney Ceneral Lrlc Polder,
Attotoey Ceoetol tlc nolJet 5peoks ot Nottbwesteto uolvetslty 5cbool of low (Mar. 3, 2012) ovolloble
ot hLLp://www.[usLlce.gov/lso/opa/ag/speeches/2012/ag-speech-1203031.hLml/ (ln facL, Lhe use of
advanced weapons may help Lo ensure LhaL Lhe besL lnLelllgence ls avallable for plannlng and carrylng
ouL operaLlons, and LhaL Lhe rlsk of clvlllan casualLles can be mlnlmlzed or avolded alLogeLher."), Parold
koh, Legal Advlser, u.S. ueparLmenL of SLaLe, Speech aL Lhe Annual MeeLlng of Lhe Amerlcan SocleLy of
lnLernaLlonal Law, (Mar. 30, 2010) avallable aL hLLp://www.sLaLe.gov/s/l/releases/remarks/139119.hLm
(lndeed, uslng such advanced Lechnologles can ensure boLh LhaL Lhe besL lnLelllgence ls avallable for
plannlng operaLlons, and LhaL clvlllan casualLles are mlnlmlzed ln carrylng ouL such operaLlons."), !eh
!ohnson, naLlonal SecurlLy Law, Lawyers and Lawyerlng ln Lhe Cbama AdmlnlsLraLlon, 8emarks aL ?ale
Law School (leb. 22, 2012), avallable aL www.lawfareblog.com/2012/02/[eh-[ohnson-speech-aL-yale-
law-school/ (Advanced Lechnology can ensure boLh LhaL Lhe besL lnLelllgence ls avallable for plannlng
operaLlons, and LhaL clvlllan casualLles are mlnlmlzed ln carrylng ouL such operaLlons.").

2
5ee, e.q, ScoLL Shane, c.l.A. ls ulspoteJ oo clvllloo 1oll lo utooe 5ttlkes, n.?. 1lmes (Aug. 11, 2011).

9
:
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

exLra[udlclal, summary, or arblLrary execuLlon, refer Lo Lhe esLlmaLes.
3
Scholarshlp and Lhlnk Lank
sLudles Lake Lracklng organlzaLlons' esLlmaLes as a sLarLlng polnL for furLher analysls.
4

Cn Lhelr webslLes and ln lnLervlews and exchanges wlLh Columbla, none of Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons'
researchers presenL Lhelr esLlmaLes as deflnlLlve. We belleve Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons are engaged ln a
good falLh efforL Lo lnform and encourage publlc debaLe, and have noL seL ouL Lo provlde concluslve
answers. neverLheless, ln Lhe absence of oLher lnformaLlon, Lhese esLlmaLes LransmuLe lnLo someLhlng
llke acLual body counLs. Among concerned pollcymakers and observers, Lhe esLlmaLes are someLlmes
dlscussed as Lhough Lhey were based on credlble, corroboraLed and flrsLhand research-raLher Lhan a
compllaLlon of news arLlcles and oLher maLerlal LhaL only rarely lncludes on-Lhe-ground research.
1he problem ls LhaL as Lhe esLlmaLes are asslmllaLed lnLo facL, Lhey LhreaLen Lo become whaL everybody
koows abouL Lhe u.S. coverL drone sLrlkes program. 1he esLlmaLes provlde a dangerous assurance: Lhe
human Loll ls someLhlng we have ldenLlfled, debaLed and consldered. lf we know who and how many
people we have kllled, calls Lo examlne and dellberaLe on Lhe drone program-and calls Lo end lL-lose
Lhelr urgency. We may come Lo falsely belleve LhaL coverL drone sLrlkes are an open secreL" when ln
facL, Lhe u.S. governmenL conLlnues Lo reslsL dlsclosure of baslc and lmporLanL lnformaLlon abouL Lhe
drone sLrlkes program. Moreover, where Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' esLlmaLes slgnlflcanLly undercounL
Lhe number of clvlllans kllled by drone sLrlkes, Lhey may dlsLorL our percepLlons and provlde false
[usLlflcaLlon Lo pollcymakers who wanL Lo expand drone sLrlkes Lo new locaLlons, and agalnsL new
groups.
3

Cur sLudy underscores Lhe need for responslble engagemenL by Lhe u.S. governmenL on Lhe lssue of
drone sLrlkes, and ln parLlcular, Lhe lmpacL on local clvlllan populaLlons. lL bullds on Lhe work of scholars
and observers who, based on Lhelr famlllarlLy wlLh reporLlng processes and local dynamlcs, have for Lhe
pasL few years quesLloned Lhe rellablllLy of drone sLrlke deaLh esLlmaLes.
6
Whlle Lhe esLlmaLes of

3
ChrlsLof Peyns, Speclal 8apporLeur on exLra[udlclal, summary or arblLrary execuLlons, lollow-up Lo
counLry recommendaLlons - unlLed SLaLes of Amerlca", 30 March 2012, A/P8C/20/22/Add.3, aL para.
81.
4
5ee, e.q., aLrlck 8. !ohnson & Anoop Sarbahl, "1he lmpacL of u.S. urone SLrlkes on 1errorlsm ln
aklsLan," (lebruary 23, 2012), avallable aL hLLp://paLrlck[ohnsLon.lnfo/maLerlals/drones.pdf
3
lor a dlscusslon of drone sLrlkes and Lhe expanslon of groups and lndlvlduals of who may be LargeLed,
see Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc & CenLer for Clvlllans ln ConfllcL, 1be clvllloo lmpoct of utooes.
uoexomloeJ costs, uooosweteJ Ooestloos 67-77 (2012).
6
1hls rellance has sparked crlLlques by [ournallsLs and scholars skepLlcal of Lhe rellablllLy of Lhe Lracklng
organlzaLlon's counLs and medla reporLs. 5ee, e.q., Conor lrledersdorf, llawed Analysls of urone SLrlke
uaLa ls Mlsleadlng Amerlcans," 1he ALlanLlc (8log) (!uly 18, 2012), Chase Madar, Search for a MeLhod,"
1he new lnqulry.com (!uly 2, 2012), Muhammad ldrees Ahmad, 1he Maglcal 8eallsm of 8ody CounLs,"
Al[azeera.com (!une 13, 2011), n?u CenLer for Puman 8lghLs and Clobal !usLlce & SLanford lnLernaLlonal
Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc, llvloq uoJet utooes 43-34 (2012).

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# 9
9
aklsLan-based Lracklng organlzaLlons are ouLslde of Lhe scope of Lhls reporL, Lhelr use of a wlder range
of sources, such as local medla reporLs ln local languages and hosplLal records, ls lnsLrucLlve.
7

778 @02 A(,;%)%'%*3
1hls reporL bullds on prevlous sLudles by Lhe Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc and Puman 8lghLs lnsLlLuLe
regardlng Lhe lmpacL of drone sLrlkes on local communlLles and Lhe amblgulLy ln u.S. legal sLandards
regardlng who may be LargeLed leLhally.
8

ln Lhls reporL, we seL ouL Lo examlne Lhe assumpLlons and accuracy of lnformaLlon abouL drone sLrlke
deaLhs, lncludlng Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhe lndlvlduals kllled. new Amerlca loundaLlon, Long War !ournal and
8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm each arrlve aL dlfferenL esLlmaLes of Lhe LoLal numbers of lndlvlduals
kllled and Lhelr ldenLlLles. 1o flnd ouL why, we revlewed each organlzaLlon's daLa for all sLrlkes ln
aklsLan ln 2011, lncludlng Lhe medla reporLs Lhey referenced, and lndependenLly counLed reporLed
casualLles. Cur sLudy conslsLed of all reporLed drone sLrlkes ln aklsLan ln 2011-a slgnlflcanL and
dlscreLe daLaseL LhaL allows us Lo compare our resulLs Lo Lhose of Lhe oLher organlzaLlons, sLrlke-by-
sLrlke, and ln end-of-year sLaLlsLlcs. Cur compleLe sLrlke-by-sLrlke comparlson, analysls and daLaseL ls
avallable onllne.
ln addlLlon Lo Lhe analysls and crlLlque of meLhods ln Lhls reporL, we recounLed Lhe reporLed casualLles
for each sLrlke uslng each Lracklng organlzaLlon's own sources and arrlved aL our own esLlmaLes. We
used only Lhe sources llsLed by Lhe organlzaLlons, whlch are hyperllnked on Lhelr webslLes (or ln Lhe case
of new Amerlca, provlded ln a separaLe ul documenL whlch ls hyperllnked on Lhelr webslLe). We dld
noL seek ouL addlLlonal sources, buL where a hyperllnk was broken and appeared Lo be Lhe source of an
organlzaLlon's upper or lower casualLy flgure, we have Lrled Lo re-source Lhe arLlcle.
We gave each organlzaLlon an opporLunlLy Lo revlew and respond Lo our daLa and flndlngs. 8lll 8ogglo of
Lhe Long War !ournal spoke wlLh us exLenslvely abouL Lhe organlzaLlon's meLhodology, Lhe 8ureau of

7
We do noL focus on Lhese sLudles ln parL because lnLernaLlonal medla rarely clLe Lhelr flgures, buL also
because Lhelr counLs are based on urdu and oLher language sources LhaL we do noL have Lhe resources
Lo verlfy. 1he Lhree mosL well-known aklsLan Lracklng organlzaLlons are aklsLan lnsLlLuLe for eace
SLudles, aklsLan 8ody CounL and ConfllcL MonlLorlng CenLer. Accordlng Lo lLs webslLe, Lhe aklsLan
lnsLlLuLe for eace SLudles' ConfllcL and SecurlLy uaLabase Leam monlLors around 100 local and naLlonal
newspapers, magazlnes and [ournals on a dally basls, relylng heavlly on reglonal correspondenLs Lo
cross-check lnformaLlon and seek furLher deLalls of lssues covered by Lhe medla. See ak lnsLlLuLe for
eace SLudles, ulglLal uaLabase on ConfllcL and SecurlLy, avallable aL hLLp://www.san-
plps.com/app/daLabase/lndex.php?ld=3 (subscrlpLlon only), LveryCasualLy, lnLernaLlonal racLlLloners
neLwork, ak lnsLlLuLe for eace SLudles, avallable aL hLLp://www.everycasualLy.org/pracLlLloners/plps
see also hLLp://san-plps.com/lnd ex.php?acLlon=reporLs&ld=Lml3, aklsLan 8ody CounL, avallable aL
hLLp://paklsLanbodycounL.org/drone_aLLack, ConfllcL MonlLorlng CenLer, avallable aL
hLLp://cmcpk.wordpress.com/drone-aLLacks-ln-paklsLan/.
8
5ee Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc & CenLer for Clvlllans ln ConfllcL, 1be clvllloo lmpoct of utooes.
uoexomloeJ costs, uooosweteJ Ooestloos (2012), Puman 8lghLs lnsLlLuLe, Columbla Law School,
1otqetloq Opetotloos wltb utooe 1ecbooloqy. nomooltotloo low lmpllcotloos (March 23, 2011).

9
!
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm's Chrls Woods revlewed and commenLed on our daLa flndlngs and spoke wlLh
us exLenslvely abouL Lhe 8ureau's meLhodology. We are graLeful for Lhelr lnslghLs and commenLs.
uesplLe numerous aLLempLs Lo dlscuss our flndlngs wlLh new Amerlca loundaLlon, Lhey decllned Lo
commenL, buL dld subsLanLlally alLer Lhelr daLa afLer we provlded our deLalled sLrlke counLs.
9

1he only organlzaLlon LhaL chose Lo respond dlrecLly Lo us abouL each sLrlke counL where we reached a
dlfferenL resulL was Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm. Some lnlLlal dlfferences beLween our counLs
have been ellmlnaLed Lhrough Lhls process, as Lhe 8ureau changed lLs daLa based on some of our work,
and vlce versa. ln cases where we conLlnue Lo dlsagree, we have lncorporaLed Lhe 8ureau's speclflc
responses ln our daLaseL.
1o arrlve aL our lndependenL recounL, we Look lnLo accounL Lhe lowesL and hlghesL reporLed numbers
presenLed by llsLed medla sources, excepL ln cases where we were saLlsfled LhaL cerLaln flgures had
been superseded by laLer reporLs or, ln a few cases, where Lhey conLalned evldenL Lypographlcal
errors.
10
As dlscussed below, we belleve LhaL Lhls ls Lhe approprlaLe and mosL accuraLe approach. We
have Lrled Lo dlscard ouLdaLed numbers very conservaLlvely, dolng so only when Lhere ls a clear
dlfference over Llme and where Lhe same news agencles publlsh updaLed flgures. ln our vlew, as Lhe
ma[orlLy of medla reporLs provlde so llLLle lnformaLlon and rely on so few sources, lL ls a rare case where
a reporLed flgure can be confldenLly dlscarded on any oLher basls. We have Lrled Lo be as LransparenL as
posslble abouL how we have reached our counL and lLs comparlson Lo all of Lhe reporLed flgures wlLhln
Lhe sLrlke-by-sLrlke analysls.
ln cases where we had concerns wlLh Lhe medla sources, we have Laken a lower flgure of 0. ln cases
where Lhere are confllcLlng reporLs abouL Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhe lndlvlduals kllled as elLher mlllLanLs or
clvlllans, our flgures reflecL boLh posslblllLles-for example, lf 3 people were reporLed kllled, we Lake a
lower flgure of 0 and an upper flgure of 3 ln boLh caLegorles.
11

lL ls lmporLanL Lo noLe LhaL desplLe Lhe greaL care we Look ln revlewlng Lhe daLa and orlglnal medla
sources, our esLlmaLes do noL purporL Lo be rellable or accuraLe lndlcaLors of Lhe acLual number of
clvlllan or mlllLanL" casualLles of u.S. drone sLrlkes. 1he u.S. governmenL should provlde such flgures

9
ln an emall response on !uly 30, 2012, eLer 8ergen of Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon decllned Lo speak
wlLh us, sLaLlng: We publlsh all of our daLa and updaLe lL conLlnuously on our webslLe and so any
quesLlons you mlghL have should be answered by whaL ls on Lhe slLe." lollowlng several repeaLed
lnqulrles, ln an emall on AugusL 12, 2012, !ennlfer 8owland of Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon asked for
our wrlLLen flndlngs and on AugusL 13, 2012 lndlcaLed Lhey were under revlew. uesplLe repeaLed
aLLempLs aL conLacL by emall and phone, new Amerlca has noL responded wlLh commenLs or oLher
lnformaLlon. Powever, ln laLe AugusL 2012, new Amerlca slgnlflcanLly changed Lhe way LhaL lLs daLaseLs
are recorded and changed a number of lndlvldual sLrlke accounLs, per Lhe speclflc daLa dlscrepancles our
flndlngs had ldenLlfled.
10
Cur recounL's upper and lower flgures are based only on medla sources, all of whlch are llsLed as
fooLnoLes ln our daLaseL. 1he medla sources do noL lnclude unknown blogs or webslLes purporLedly run
by mlllLanL groups.
11
1hls ls also Lhe reason why our mlnlmum clvlllan and mlllLanL casualLy flgures do noL add up Lo our
mlnlmum flgure for LoLal kllled.

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# 9
1
and clarlfy lLs sLandards for Lhe permlsslblllLy of dlrecL LargeLlng. 8aLher, our recounL reflecLs Lhe exLenL
Lo whlch clvlllan casualLles whlch are credlbly reporLed are noneLheless mlssed by Lhe Lracklng
organlzaLlons, lL underscores LhaL Lhe publlc and pollcymakers do noL have compleLe lnformaLlon abouL
Lhe humanlLarlan cosL of drone sLrlkes.

9
2
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#


7778 B(1#$(--(- %C A()61 5(D%2,- 1- 1 A(,26" C%2 :2%$( /,26#(
:(1,;-
Medla reporLs are aL presenL Lhe besL and perhaps only way Lo geL a plcLure of Lhe frequency and scope
of u.S. drone sLrlkes ouLslde of AfghanlsLan and an ldea of Lhe overall number of people belng kllled by
Lhem. Powever, Lhere are sysLemaLlc flaws and blases ln Lhe reporLlng. Whlle ln some rare cases Lhere ls
ln-depLh reporLlng on Lhe clrcumsLances of parLlcular sLrlkes, Lhls ls unforLunaLely far from Lhe norm.
llmlteJ MeJlo Access ooJ lew uetolls
Medla reporLs of parLlcular drone sLrlkes are based on llmlLed reporLlng, wlLh Lhe same few [ournallsLs
and news ouLleLs provldlng Lhe same maLerlals Lo mulLlple wlre agencles and naLlonal or lnLernaLlonal
press. Moreover, medla reporLs are usually based on llmlLed on-Lhe-ground lnvesLlgaLlon (wlLh Lhe
excepLlon of some aklsLanl newspapers, whlch we noLe below). Wlder and more ln-depLh reporLlng ls
Lyplcally reserved for cases where a hlgh-level mlllLanL leader has been reporLed kllled, or cases wlLh an
unusually hlgh number of overall and reporLedly clvlllan casualLles. 8eporLs ofLen provlde no more
lnformaLlon Lhan Lhe locaLlon of Lhe sLrlke, Lhe alleged or apparenL LargeL (such as a compound" or a
vehlcle), Lhe number of people reporLed dead and an offlclal clalm LhaL Lhose kllled were mlllLanLs.
Whlle Lhe publlc and pollcymakers may vlew lnLernaLlonal medla reporLs as especlally credlble, Lhese
ouLleLs-lncludlng Lhe new ?ork 1lmes, Lhe 88C and wlre servlces such as 8euLers and Lhe AssoclaLed
ress-are generally unable Lo access Lhe Lrlbal areas where drone sLrlkes are occurrlng, maklng Lhem
rellanL on local [ournallsLs or sLrlngers" for Lhelr reporLlng. lnLernaLlonal medla someLlmes reporL Lhe
number and ldenLlLy of Lhose kllled based on Lhe reporLs of several local sLrlngers. Powever, Lhe
sLrlngers Lhemselves may be unable Lo go Lo Lhe area where a drone sLrlke acLually occurred due Lo
securlLy lssues, maklng Lhelr reporLs subsLanLlally dependenL on Lhe word of a handful of local offlclals-
a problem we explore furLher below. Lven when sLrlngers are able Lo reach Lhe areas where drone
sLrlkes occurred and conducL Lhelr own on-Lhe-ground reporLlng, resulLlng reporLs may fall Lo reflecL
posslble clvlllan casualLles, lf only one sLrlnger flnds evldence of clvlllan casualLles, compared Lo Lhree or
four oLher sLrlngers who do noL, lnLernaLlonal medla wlll ordlnarlly noL reporL Lhe posslblllLy of clvlllan
casualLles.
12

Cn Lhe oLher hand, reporLs of clvlllan casualLles based on sLaLemenLs of unnamed wlLnesses or local
vlllagers" may be flawed. Soon afLer a sLrlke, local mlllLanL groups may move Lhe bodles of lndlvlduals
kllled, for burlal or Lo obscure Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhose kllled. WlLnesses may fear reLallaLlon by local mlllLanL
groups lf Lhey dlscuss whaL occurred, lL ls posslble LhaL local governmenL offlclals, coverL agenLs, or

12
See Asla aclflc lorum W8Al 99.3 lM, klller urones: CounLlng Lhe Puman CosLs" (lnLervlew wlLh
[ournallsL Madlha 1ahlr), audlo avallable aL hLLp://www.aslapaclflcforum.org and LranscrlpL on flle wlLh
Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc, see also n?u CenLer for Puman 8lghLs and Clobal !usLlce & SLanford
lnLernaLlonal Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc, llvloq uoJet utooes 37-38 (2012).

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# 9
3
mlllLanL groups could lnfluence wlLnesses-elLher agalnsL provldlng lnformaLlon aL all, or Loward
provldlng mlslnformaLlon abouL who ls kllled-alLhough we do noL know of reporLs Lo Lhls effecL.

wbo uefloes Mllltoots vetsos clvllloos?
8eporLlng on drone sLrlke casualLles, and Lhe Lracklng of Lhose reporLs, Lyplcally dlvlde Lhe dead ln Lwo
caLegorles: mlllLanLs" and clvlllans." 1he hldden blas of Lhls caLegorlzaLlon sLems from Lhe amblgulLy
of Lhe Lerms: Lhey are noL deflned by Lhe u.S. governmenL, Lhough u.S. offlclals use Lhem, Lhe Lerms
sound vaguely legal, alLhough Lhey only loosely Lrack legal and scholarly debaLes abouL who may be
lawfully LargeLed. WlLhouL a unlversally accepLed or sLandardlzed deflnlLlon for Lhese Lerms,
caLegorlzaLlon of mlllLanL" and clvlllan" deaLhs ls blased by Lhe deflnlLlon of Lhe lndlvlduals Lo whom
medla reporLs clLe for ldenLlfylng Lhe dead. WheLher Lhese prlmary sources are unnamed u.S. and
aklsLanl offlclals, or unnamed local vlllagers and wlLnesses, ldenLlflcaLlon of Lhose kllled as mlllLanLs"
or clvlllans" ls llkely drlven by pollLlcal lnLeresLs, and colored by Lhe perspecLlve and experlences of Lhe
source. As Lhese Lerms appear ln medla reporLs and Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlon sLudles, Lhey mlghL be
beLLer undersLood as moral caLegorles of who should and should noL be kllled. 1hey are, Lo LhaL exLenL,
lnherenLly llmlLed and blased.
13

Cur revlew of Lhe medla reporLs and Lracklng organlzaLlon sLudles suggesLs LhaL Lhey regularly use
clvlllan" Lo refer Lo a person for whom Lhere ls no allegaLlon of afflllaLlon wlLh a mlllLanL group, and
mlllLanL" for a person for whom Lhere ls. As colloqulal expresslons, Lhese undersLandlngs appear
lnLulLlve. 1hus, ln medla and Lracklng organlzaLlon reporLs, named and well-known mlllLanL group
leaders are caLegorlzed as mlllLanLs" and young chlldren and women are ofLen caLegorlzed as
clvlllans."
1he dlsLlncLlon beLween mlllLanL" and clvlllan" ls more muddled and conLroverslal, however, Lhan
Lhese examples reflecL.
14
1he sllppage beLween mlllLanL" and clvlllan" as colloqulal Lerms and legal
Lerms causes confuslon and may be a reason for dlfferenL accounLlng of who ls a clvlllan." As a legal
maLLer, under some clrcumsLances clvlllans may lawfully be LargeLed-perhaps leadlng u.S. and
aklsLanl governmenL sources Lo refer Lo such clvlllans as mlllLanLs."
13
1he clrcumsLances under whlch

13
CLher observers have also made Lhls concluslon. See, e.g., n?u CenLer for Puman 8lghLs and Clobal
!usLlce & SLanford lnLernaLlonal Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc, llvloq uoJet utooes 30-31 (2012).
14
Lven Lhe examples of mlllLanL leaders and young chlldren and women carry conLroversy. Some
commenLaLors would argue LhaL mlllLanL leaders cannoL be LargeLed whlle Lhey are noL dlrecLly
parLlclpaLlng ln hosLlllLles. Moreover, clvlllan women and chlldren could be LargeLable under
humanlLarlan law, alLhough younger chlldren could presumably noL form Lhe afflllaLlons or lnLenLlons
necessary Lo lose proLecLlon as clvlllans. See Avrll Mcuonald, 1he Challenges Lo lnLernaLlonal
PumanlLarlan Law and Lhe rlnclples of ulsLlncLlon and roLecLlon from Lhe lncreased arLlclpaLlon of
Clvlllans ln PosLlllLles," Asser lnsLlLuLe (Aprll 2004), avallable aL
hLLp://www.asser.nl/defaulL.aspx?slLe_ld=9&level1=13337&level2=13379, lofto noLe 13.
13
1he lnLernaLlonal humanlLarlan law prlnclple of dlsLlncLlon requlres parLles Lo a confllcL Lo dlsLlngulsh
ln aLLack beLween combaLanLs, as deflned ln ArLlcle 4 of Lhe 1hlrd Ceneva ConvenLlon, and clvlllans. ln
an lnLernaLlonal armed confllcL, lndlvlduals who are noL members of Lhe armed forces are clvlllans and

9
4
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

clvlllans lose proLecLlon under humanlLarlan law and become sub[ecL Lo dlrecL aLLack ls a maLLer of hoLly
conLesLed debaLe among lawyers and scholars ln Lhe u.S. and lnLernaLlonally.
16
CovernmenL sources
mlghL provlde lower clvlllan casualLy esLlmaLes Lhan local wlLnesses because lnLernal governmenL
sLandards permlL LargeLlng of an expanslve range of clvlllans-such as clvlllans who, Lhough noL
members of a mlllLanL group, are suspecLed of some afflllaLlon or of provldlng some maLerlal supporL Lo
mlllLanL groups-someLlmes beyond convenLlonal lnLerpreLaLlons of humanlLarlan law.
?eL Lhere are assumpLlons and blases aL play ln deflnlng such lndlvlduals as mlllLanLs" or lnslsLlng Lhey
are clvlllans": on Lhe one hand, governmenLs may [usLlfy LargeLlng based on an lndlvldual's provlslon of
supplles Lo a local mlllLanL group, whlle on Lhe oLher hand local wlLnesses mlghL characLerlze Lhe
lndlvldual as lnnocenL and noLe LhaL Lhe supplles were food or medlclne, or provlded only under
duress.
17
Llkewlse, governmenLs may [usLlfy LargeLlng local groups who are meeLlng or mlxlng wlLh
lndlvlduals ldenLlfled as mlllLanLs, yeL local wlLnesses and observers mlghL characLerlze Lhose meeLlngs
and Lalks as aLLempLs aL reconclllaLlon or peace-bulldlng, and decry drone sLrlkes for LargeLlng clvlllans.

are enLlLled Lo proLecLlon agalnsL dlrecL aLLack. ln a non-lnLernaLlonal armed confllcL, a cusLomary rule
of dlsLlncLlon applles, whlch ls formulaLed ln slmllar Lerms. 5ee Ceneva ConvenLlon 8elaLlve Lo Lhe
1reaLmenL of rlsoners of War, ArL. 4, Aug. 12, 1949, 6 u.S.1. 3316, 73 u.n.1.S. 133 (deflnlng
combaLanL"), roLocol AddlLlonal Lo Lhe Ceneva ConvenLlons of 12 AugusL 1949, and relaLlng Lo Lhe
roLecLlon of vlcLlms of lnLernaLlonal Armed ConfllcLs (AddlLlonal roLocol l), arL. 30-31, !une 8, 1977,
1123 u.n.1.S. 3, 23 [herelnafLer AddlLlonal roLocol l], 8ules 1 and 3, lC8C, CusLomary lnLernaLlonal
PumanlLarlan Law uaLabase, hLLp://www.lcrc.org/cusLomary-lhl/eng/docs/home [herelnafLer lC8C,
CusLomary Law uaLabase]. 1he u.S. ls noL parLy Lo AddlLlonal roLocol l, buL regards some of lLs
provlslons as cusLomary law. ln Lhls reporL, we refer Lo cusLomary law as recognlzed by lC8C's sLudy on
cusLomary law, alLhough lLs vlews do noL always reflecL Lhose of Lhe u.S. governmenL. 1here ls
noneLheless subsLanLlal debaLe abouL how Lo caLegorlze lndlvlduals who may be LargeLed by drone
sLrlkes, as members of non-sLaLe armed groups or clvlllans dlrecLly parLlclpaLlng ln hosLlllLles.
16
Among Lhe areas of debaLe, Lwo of Lhe mosL hlghly conLesLed lssues are: (1) who may be LargeLed as
dlrecLly parLlclpaLlng ln hosLlllLles" and for how long, and (2) who may be LargeLed as fulfllllng a
conLlnuous combaLanL funcLlon," a sLaLus by whlch members of organlzed armed groups cease Lo be
clvlllans and lose proLecLlon agalnsL dlrecL aLLack. lor a brlef summary of poslLlons and conLroversles,
see Puman 8lghLs lnsLlLuLe, Columbla Law School, 1otqetloq Opetotloos wltb utooe 1ecbooloqy.
nomooltotloo low lmpllcotloos (March 23, 2011), 13-23 ovolloble ot
hLLp://www.law.columbla.edu/lplmages/Puman_8lghLs_lnsLlLuLe/8ackgroundnoLeASlLColumbla.pdf
(dlscusslng and referenclng, lnLer alla, lC8C, lnLerpreLlve Culdance on Lhe noLlon of ulrecL arLlclpaLlon
ln PosLlllLles under lnLernaLlonal PumanlLarlan Law (nlls Melzer ed., 2009), Mlchael SchmlLL,
ueconsLrucLlng ulrecL arLlclpaLlon ln PosLlllLles: 1he ConsLlLuLlve LlemenLs, 42 n.?.u. !. lnL'l L. & ol.
697, 699 (2010), 3 8yan Coodman & uerek !lnks, 1he lC8C lnLerpreLlve Culdance on Lhe noLlon of ulrecL
arLlclpaLlon ln PosLlllLles under lnLernaLlonal PumanlLarlan Law: an lnLroducLlon Lo Lhe lorum, 42
n.?.u. !. lnL'l L. & ol. 637, 640 (2010), kenneLh WaLkln, CpporLunlLy losL: organlzed armed groups and
Lhe lC8C ulrecL arLlclpaLlon ln PosLlllLles" lnLerpreLlve Culdance, 42 n.?.u. !. lnL'l L. & ol. 640, 692
(2010), nlls Melzer, keeplng Lhe 8alance 8eLween MlllLary necesslLy and PumanlLy: A 8esponse Lo lour
CrlLlques on Lhe lC8C's lnLerpreLlve Culdance on Lhe noLlon of ulrecL arLlclpaLlon ln PosLlllLles," n.?.u.
!. lnL'l L. & ol. 831, 833 (2010)).
17
See Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc & CenLer for Clvlllans ln ConfllcL, 1be clvllloo lmpoct of utooes.
uoexomloeJ costs, uooosweteJ Ooestloos 41-42 (2012).

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# 9
5
Cur revlew of medla reporLs from 2011 suggesLs LhaL, beyond Lhe chlldren and named mlllLanL leaders,
Lhere ls rarely enough lnformaLlon provlded ln medla reporLs for an ouLslder-lncludlng a Lracklng
organlzaLlon-Lo lndependenLly assess wheLher Lhe use of Lhe mlllLanL" or clvlllan" label ls accuraLe,
accordlng Lo lLs own sLandards or presumed legal sLandards.
A rare example of deeper medla reporLlng on Lhe ldenLlLles of Lhose kllled followed a sLrlke on 8armal,
SouLh WazlrlsLan, on !uly 12, 2011,
18
buL Lhe greaLer level of deLall underscores our polnL LhaL Lhe labels
mlllLanL" and clvlllan" may Lurn on Lhe perspecLlve of Lhe prlmary sources, and are dlfflculL for Lracklng
organlzaLlons Lo lndependenLly assess. Medla reporLs clLed anonymous offlclals as lndlcaLlng Lhe sLrlke
kllled mlllLanLs. aklsLan 1oday provlded furLher deLall, sLaLlng 3 youngsLers", assoclaLed" wlLh Lhe
Paqqanl neLwork were kllled, and lL named Lhree of Lhem. ulglLal !ournal reporLed LhaL a sLaLemenL ln
an urdu dally from one of Lhe deceased's unlverslLy professors descrlbed hlm as an lnnocenL, lnLelllgenL
sLudenL who had counLless good quallLles and who devoLed all hls Llme Lo hls sLudles." 1he sLaLemenL
from Lhe Leacher descrlblng one sLudenL as lnnocenL" ls noL, ln our vlew, enough Lo amounL Lo a reporL
LhaL he was a clvlllan. Cn Lhe oLher hand, whlle Lhese are qulLe clearly medla reporLs of mlllLanL"
deaLhs, we do noL know whaL lL means Lo be a youngsLer" (under 18 and Lhus a chlld?) who ls
assoclaLed" wlLh Lhe Paqqanl neLwork ln WazlrlsLan-Lhe exLenL Lo whlch Lhe assoclaLlon lncludes
acLual lnvolvemenL ln mlllLanL acLlvlLles, or behavlor whlch would make hlm dlrecLly LargeLable under
unknown u.S. sLandards.
MeJlo kepotts kellooce oo uooomeJ loklstool Covetomeot 5ootces
Medla reporLs provlde a weak basls for deLermlnlng Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhose kllled because Lhey Lyplcally
caLegorlze Lhe dead as mlllLanLs" by clLlng unnamed aklsLanl offlclals, alLhough ln some cases Lhey
corroboraLe sLaLemenLs by offlclals wlLh sLaLemenLs by anonymous resldenLs. We do noL know who Lhe
unnamed aklsLanl offlclals are, alLhough observers belleve Lhey are aklsLanl Army offlclals. WhaL
deflnlLlon Lhese offlclals use Lo caLegorlze a person as a mlllLanL or clvlllan ls unknown. nor do we know
how Lhe aklsLanl Army conflrms such deaLhs or Lhe quallLy of lnformaLlon lL ls able Lo rely on, glven Lhe
llmlLed accesslblllLy of some of Lhe Lrlbal reglons Lo even Lhe Army. CrlLlcs of Lhe aklsLanl mlllLary argue
LhaL lL does noL conducL on-Lhe-ground lnvesLlgaLlons before lssulng on Lhe condlLlon of anonymlLy"
announcemenLs LhaL Lhe dead are mlllLanLs, Lhese crlLlcs conLend LhaL lL ls plauslble Lhe Army has a
pollLlcal lnLeresL ln caLegorlzlng as many of Lhose kllled ln drone sLrlkes as mlllLanLs".
19

8eyond governmenL sources, medla reporLs rarely provlde any addlLlonal ldenLlfylng lnformaLlon abouL
Lhe dead LhaL would enable Lhe reader-or Lracklng organlzaLlons-Lo reach Lhelr own [udgmenL on Lhe
maLLer. Cur revlew of Lhe 2011 daLa for aklsLan shows LhaL ouL of 330 Lo 373 mlllLanLs reporLed dead,
for beLween 100 Lo 219 lndlvlduals ldenLlfled as mlllLanLs, Lhe sole source medla reporLs provlde ls
anonymous offlclals. ln Lhe case of 36 Lo 71 of Lhose dead, absoluLely no furLher ldenLlfylng lnformaLlon
ls provlded beyond Lhe clalm LhaL Lhey were mlllLanLs or alleged mlllLanLs. lor Lhe remalnlng 64 Lo 148
dead, some ldenLlfylng lnformaLlon ls provlded, such as an alleged connecLlon Lo a parLlcular mlllLanL

18
See Columbla uaLaseL, SLrlke 46.
19
See, e.g., Muhammad ldrees Ahmad, CunboaLs and gurkhas ln Lhe Amerlcan lmperlum,"
Al!azeera.com (!uly 14, 2012).

9
6
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

group or leader.
20
CfLen Lhe addlLlonal ldenLlfylng lnformaLlon ls slmply a clalm LhaL Lhe deceased were
forelgn", whlch mlghL confllcL wlLh oLher reporLs clalmlng Lhey were local".
1he Lrend of heavy rellance on anonymous offlclals ls noL llmlLed Lo Lhe 2011 daLaseL. new ?ork
unlverslLy School of Law's Clobal !usLlce Cllnlc and SLanford's lnLernaLlonal Puman 8lghLs and ConfllcL
8esoluLlon Cllnlc analyzed Lhe arLlcles relled on by Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon for lLs daLa on drone
sLrlkes ln aklsLan from !anuary Lo !uly 2012. n?u's analysls found LhaL ln 74 percenL of Lhe arLlcles, Lhe
only source for Lhe number of mlllLanLs" kllled was anonymous governmenL offlclals (almosL always
unnamed aklsLanl offlclals).
21


locooslsteot kepottloq Amooq MeJlo kepotts ooJ tbe lmpllcotloo fot 1tockloq Otqoolzotloo cooots
ln Lhe ma[orlLy of sLrlke reporLs LhaL we analyzed, dlverse deaLh counLs are reporLed among dlfferenL
sources. lnconslsLencles as Lo Lhe number of dead, Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhe dead, Lhe ob[ecL LargeLed, and
even Lhe locaLlon of a sLrlke are noL uncommon.
Among repuLable news organlzaLlons, Lhe reporLed number of dead ofLen dlverges. SomeLlmes dlfferenL
reporLed numbers reflecL Lhe deaLh counL changlng over Llme as more lnformaLlon becomes avallable,
buL more ofLen lL appears LhaL flgures are slmply confllcLlng. SomeLlmes Lhe dlfference ls slgnlflcanL, buL
even where Lhe dlfferences are small, Lhe LoLals add up. 1o varylng exLenLs, Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons'
cholces of a pool of sources skewed Lhelr counLs upward or downward.
Cf Lhe Lhree Lracklng organlzaLlons whose daLa we analyzed, Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm
Lyplcally clLes Lhe largesL number of sources. 1he 8ureau ls followed by Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon,
wlLh Lhe Long War !ournal Lyplcally relylng on Lhe fewesL sources, ofLen only one or Lwo arLlcles. 1he
dlvergences ln medla reporLs and varylng medla reporL pool slzes ls one reason why Lhe 8ureau has Lhe
hlghesL upper casualLy flgures, followed by new Amerlca and Lhen by Lhe Long War !ournal.
22
ln Lerms
of lndlvldual sLrlkes, Lhe rellance on a larger number of sources by Lhe 8ureau and new Amerlca ofLen
leads Lo Lhe lncorporaLlon of lower, as well as hlgher flgures. 1he mosL slgnlflcanL dlfference LhaL resulLs
however ls a much hlgher upper flgure, and a wlder gulf beLween upper and lower flgures.
1he dlvergences ln medla reporLs and Lhe relaLlonshlp beLween Lhe number of sources and hlgher
casualLy flgures underscores LhaL medla Lracklng organlzaLlons should use a wlde range of credlble and
rellable medla ln caLalogulng deaLhs. Moreover, where lL ls noL pracLlcally feaslble for Lracklng

20
See CounLs of MlllLanLs 8eporLed kllled (aklsLan 2011)" (charL), lofto aL 22.
21
See n?u CenLer for Puman 8lghLs and Clobal !usLlce & SLanford lnLernaLlonal Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc,
llvloq uoJet utooes 43-34 (2012), see also Conor lrledersdorf, llawed Analysls of urone SLrlke uaLa ls
Mlsleadlng Amerlcans," 1he ALlanLlc (8log) (!uly 18, 2012),
hLLp://www.LheaLlanLlc.com/pollLlcs/archlve/2012/07/flawed-analysls-of-drone-sLrlke-daLa-ls-
mlsleadlng-amerlcans/239836/.
22
See Columbla uaLaseL, SLrlke 4, SLrlke 11, SLrlke 12, SLrlke 13, SLrlke 42, for examples of cases ln whlch
rellance on llmlLed sources by some organlzaLlons was Lhe cause of varylng casualLy counLs.

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# 9
8
organlzaLlons Lo collaLe all relevanL reporLs, Lhelr sLaLlsLlcs on reporLed deaLhs" are lncompleLe and
should be provlded wlLh a quallflcaLlon LhaL Lhey do noL represenL all reporLs.
Moreover, rellance on Lngllsh-language sources slgnlflcanLly llmlLs Lhe number of reporLs LhaL can be
accounLed for by Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons analyzed, as well as for our own counL.
23
1hls ls parLlcularly
relevanL ln a conLexL where local medla ouLleLs ln non-Lngllsh speaklng reglons may be more wllllng and
able Lo lnvesLlgaLe Lhe parLlcular sLrlkes. 8lll 8ogglo, Managlng LdlLor of Lhe Long War !ournal, Lold us
LhaL necessary rellance on Lngllsh-language sources ls a hlndrance ln hls work.
24

A furLher llmlLaLlon of medla Lracklng ln general ls LhaL reporLlng on every slngle alleged drone aLLack,
and followlng up on Lhese aLLacks as deaLh counLs change over Llme, ls noL necessarlly Lhe prlorlLy of
[ournallsLs and medla ouLleLs (parLlcularly Lngllsh language as opposed Lo more local ones). ln
parLlcularly conLroverslal or lmporLanL" cases, where sLrlkes have allegedly kllled a large number of
clvlllans or lmporLanL mlllLanL leaders, medla coverage ls more exLenslve.

uocoooteJ 5ttlkes
ulverse reporLlng lllusLraLes noL only how easy lL can be Lo mlss some reporLed flgures, buL lL may also
be Lhe case LhaL enLlre sLrlkes go unreporLed, or LhaL reporLs of sLrlkes are overlooked.
1he 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm llsLs a number of cases whlch may or may noL be drone sLrlkes,
for whlch a slngle source ls avallable. Whlle Lhese sLrlkes are llsLed ln Lhe 8ureau's daLa, Lhe flgures are
noL lncorporaLed lnLo Lhe 8ureau's casualLy counL.
23
lor example, 1he news, a repuLable aklsLanl
source, reporLed LhaL a second sLrlke Look place on AugusL 22, 2011, kllllng an Arab famlly. lL ls Lhe only
ldenLlfled source Lo have reporLed on Lhe sLrlke. ln anoLher case, urdu 1v sLaLlon A[[ reporLed LhaL a
sLrlke on SepLember 4, 2011 kllled up Lo 7 alleged mlllLanLs.
26
1he only ldenLlfled source ls Chlnese ouLleL
xlnhua, whlch regularly clLes forelgn language medla reporLs ln lLs own Lngllsh-language reporLlng.
27

1he declslon noL Lo counL Lhese slngle-source sLrlkes ln casualLy counLs ls a senslble one, reflecLlng
concern abouL Lhe fallure of Lhe medla Lo more wldely reporL Lhe sLrlke. We cannoL Lell why parLlcular
sLrlkes are noL more wldely reporLed ln lnLernaLlonal and aklsLanl Lngllsh-language medla, and whlle lL
may be a reflecLlon on Lhe credlblllLy of Lhe reporL, lL may also be a reflecLlon on Lhe prlorlLles of Lhe
medla ln any parLlcular news cycle, or on Lhe dlfflculLles of reporLlng from such remoLe reglons. As such,
lL may well be LhaL a famlly was kllled by a sLrlke ln AugusL, and LhaL Lhelr deaLhs have gone
unaccounLed for ln Lhe casualLy flgures.

23
Powever, Lhe 8ureau has clLed Lo news reporLs ln oLher languages, lncludlng urdu.
24
Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc phone lnLervlew wlLh 8lll 8ogglo (!uly 23, 2012).
23
8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm, CoverL uS SLrlkes ln aklsLan, ?emen and Somalla - our
meLhodology," hLLp://www.LhebureaulnvesLlgaLes.com/2011/08/10/paklsLan-drone-sLrlkes-Lhe-
meLhodology2/ (lasL vlslLed CcLober 9, 2012).
26
SLrlke Cb240c ln Lhe 8ureau's daLaseL.
27
SLrlke Cb240cl ln Lhe 8ureau's daLaseL.

!
:
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

1he poLenLlal for enLlre sLrlkes Lo be mlssed ls also lllusLraLed by Lhe delayed reporLlng of a sLrlke on
CcLober 26, 2011. 8eporLs of Lhe sLrlke dld noL surface unLll CcLober 28, wlLh 8euLers reporLlng:
SecurlLy offlclals and 1allban sources sald Lhe remoLe locaLlon of Lhe suspecLed sLrlke prevenLed lL from
belng reporLed earller, and reporLs of Lhe sLrlke only surfaced when Lhe ln[ured arrlved aL a hosplLal ln
Mlr All."
28
1he sLrlke, whlch reporLedly kllled beLween 13-22 people, lncludlng a senlor 1allban member,
had been mlssed enLlrely by Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon, buL Lhey added lL Lo Lhelr daLaseL afLer we
provlded Lhem our flndlngs.
29

Whlle ln some cases, such as wlLh Lhe mlssed CcLober 26 sLrlke, a more rlgorous meLhodology may
lmprove Lhe esLlmaLes of Lracklng organlzaLlons, a perslsLenL problem ls Lhe blases of medla sources we
descrlbed above. 1aken LogeLher, Lhese flaws make aggregaLlon of medla reporLs an lnadequaLe meLrlc
for deLermlnlng Lhe number and ldenLlLy of lndlvlduals kllled. Whlle on-Lhe-ground and ln-depLh
reporLlng are always llmlLed ln war zones, we are concerned LhaL Lhe publlc and pollcymakers may fall Lo
recognlze LhaL esLlmaLes of drone sLrlkes deaLhs, whlle provlded ln good falLh, are lncompleLe and may
fall Lo reflecL Lhe Lrue humanlLarlan cosL of sLrlkes.
7E8 @02 5("%0$, %C :2%$( /,26#( :(1,;-
We conducLed an lndependenL revlew of Lhe medla sources relled on by Lracklng organlzaLlons and
arrlved aL dlfferenL counLs on Lhe overall number of lndlvlduals kllled and Lhelr ldenLlLles. 1he
dlscrepancles we descrlbe beLween our counL and LhaL of Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons are noL meanL Lo
lmpugn Lhe efforLs of Lhe organlzaLlons. 8aLher, our recounL reflecLs Lhe exLenL Lo whlch clvlllan
casualLles whlch are credlbly reporLed may noneLheless be mlssed by Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons, lL
underscores LhaL Lhe publlc and pollcymakers do noL have compleLe lnformaLlon abouL Lhe
humanlLarlan cosL of drone sLrlkes and should noL use Lhe esLlmaLes Lo [usLlfy an expanslon or
conLlnuaLlon of drone sLrlkes.
8ased on a close revlew of each Lracklng organlzaLlon's daLa and medla sources, we came Lo dlfferenL
counLs of Lhe LoLal number of lndlvlduals kllled, Lhe number of alleged clvlllans kllled, and Lhe number of
alleged mlllLanLs kllled. When we compared each of Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' own overall esLlmaLes
wlLh Lhelr lndlvldual sLrlke counLs, we found some dlscrepancles. Moreover, when we revlewed Lhe
orlglnal medla sources Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' relled upon, we came Lo dlfferenL counLs, our counLs
were slmllar Lo LhaL of Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm, buL our counL of reporLed clvlllan
casualLles ln parLlcular was slgnlflcanLly hlgher Lhan Lhe counLs by new Amerlca or Lhe Long War !ournal.
8elow we explaln furLher Lhe causes of dlfferences beLween Lhe Lhree Lracklng organlzaLlons analyzed,
and our own work. We have also endeavored Lo be as LransparenL as posslble abouL our meLhodology
for each lndlvldual sLrlke ln our sLrlke-by-sLrlke analysls.


28
!lbran Ahmad, SuspecLed u.S. drone kllls 13 aklsLanl 1allban," 8euLers, CcL. 28, 2011.
29
Columbla uaLaseL, SLrlke 67.

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# !
9
compotloq 1tockloq Otqoolzotloos Ovetoll Nombets ooJ 5ttlke-by-5ttlke 1ollles
When we conducLed a sLrlke-by-sLrlke revlew based on Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' llsLed counLs for
aklsLan 2011, we ln some cases came Lo dlfferenL overall counLs of deaLhs Lhan Lhe organlzaLlons
reporLed as Lhelr overall esLlmaLes. 8elow we llsL our recounL of Lhe organlzaLlons' lnformaLlon, wlLh
Lhelr LoLal counLs ln parenLheses:
1he 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm
o 1otol kllleJ: CounLlng Lhe 8ureau's own flgures on a sLrlke-by-sLrlke basls, we counLed a
range of 473 Lo 669 LoLal lndlvlduals kllled (compared Lo Lhe 8ureau's own LoLal counL of
473-663)
o clvllloos: A range of 68 Lo 137 clvlllans kllled (Lhe 8ureau reporLs an upper range of 134
clvlllans)
new Amerlca loundaLlon:
o 1otol kllleJ: A range of 366 Lo 399 LoLal lndlvlduals kllled (conslsLenL wlLh new Amerlca's
own Lally)
o Mllltoots: 331 Lo 324 mlllLanLs kllled (new Amerlca reporLs a range of 336 Lo 333)
o clvllloos: A range of 3 Lo 9 clvlllans kllled (conslsLenL wlLh new Amerlca's own Lally)
o uokoowo: A range of 32 Lo 66 unknowns kllled (new Amerlca reporLs a range of 27 Lo
38)
1he Long War !ournal:
o 1otol kllleJ: A range of 438 Lo 478 LoLal lndlvlduals kllled (Long War !ournal reporLs 433
LoLal)
o Mllltoots: A range of 421 Lo 473 mlllLanLs kllled (Long War !ournal reporLs 403)
o clvllloos: A range of 3 Lo 38 clvlllans kllled (Long War !ournal reporLs 30)
ln Lhe case of Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm and Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon, Lhe dlfferences
here are very mlnor, apply only Lo Lhe maxlmum flgures, and are llkely Lhe resulL of a small counLlng
error ln Lhe compllaLlon of daLa.
30
1he dlfferences ln Lhe Long War !ournal's LoLals are more slgnlflcanL,
and are llkely Lhe resulL of Lhe !ournal's less exLenslve form of reporLlng. Whereas new Amerlca and Lhe
8ureau llsL a sLrlke-by-sLrlke counL on Lhelr webslLe, our sLrlke-by-sLrlke flgures for Lhe !ournal come
from separaLe arLlcles publlshed on each sLrlke. 8lll 8ogglo of Lhe Long War !ournal Lold us LhaL
generally, Lhe !ournal's LoLal sLaLlsLlcs reflecL whaL ls publlshed ln Lhe arLlcles, buL on occaslon Lhe
flgures mlghL be updaLed wlLhouL publlshlng a new arLlcle. We found LhaL ln some cases, an arLlcle's
concluslon on Lhe number or ldenLlLy of Lhe dead was amblguous - our Lally of Lhe !ournal's flgures
reflecLs LhaL amblgulLy, whereas Lhe !ournal's own slngle-flgure LoLals do noL.
31


30
We were noL able Lo deLermlne Lhe source of Lhe counLlng error.
31
1he mosL slgnlflcanL example ls Lhe sLrlke on March 17, 2011, llsLed as sLrlke 21 ln our daLaseL. 1he
!ournal puLs reporLed deaLhs aL beLween 14 and 33, and noLes LhaL accounLs dlffered as Lo Lhe ldenLlLy
of Lhe deceased (as elLher mlllLanLs or clvlllans). As such, our Lally for Lhe !ournal ls 14-33 LoLal deaLhs, 0-
33 mlllLanLs, and 0-33 clvlllans. We conslder Lhls Lo be Lhe mosL accuraLe porLrayal of Lhe conLenL of Lhe

!
!
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#





























arLlcle, however lL ls clearly noL commensuraLe wlLh Lhe !ournal's own LoLal Lally, whlch lncludes only
slngle flgures, and ln parLlcular, a LoLal clvlllan casualLy flgure of 30 for Lhe enLlre year.
0
100
200
300
400
300
600
700
800
8ureau of
lnvesugauve
!ournallsm
new Amerlca
loundauon
Long War
!ournal
Cur CounL
Maxlmum counL
Mlnlmum counL
1oLal 8eporLed kllled (aklsLan 2011)
0
100
200
300
400
300
600
700
new Amerlca
loundauon
Long War
!ournal
Cur CounL MlllLanLs
SLrongly
ldenued
Maxlmum
Mlnlmum
CounLs of MlllLanLs 8eporLed kllled (aklsLan 2011)
n8: 1he 8ureau of lnvesugauve !ournallsm does noL speclcally
Lrack a mlllLanL casualLy counL

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# !
1
















compotloq Oot loJepeoJeot cooot ooJ ctltetlo to tbe 1tockloq Otqoolzotloos cooots
AfLer recalculaLlng Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons' esLlmaLes based on a sLrlke-by-sLrlke revlew, we revlewed
Lhe medla sources Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons relled upon, and came Lo an lndependenL counL of
lndlvlduals kllled:
o 1otol: 436 Lo 661 LoLal kllled
o AlleqeJ mllltoots: 330 Lo 373
o AlleqeJ clvllloos: 72 Lo 133
uslng Lhe mlnlmum casualLy flgures, we counLed 2300 percenL more clvlllan casualLles Lhan were
reporLed by Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon as clvlllan casualLles", we counLed 140 percenL more
clvlllan" casualLles Lhan were reporLed by new Amerlca loundaLlon as elLher clvlllan" or unknown"
casualLles, we counLed 140 percenL more clvlllan casualLles Lhan Lhe Long War !ournal reporLed, and we
counLed 3.9 percenL more clvlllan casualLles Lhan Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm, Lo whlch our
counL was subsLanLlally slmllar.
Cur range, and Lhe dlscrepancy beLween our esLlmaLes and LhaL of Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons, parLly
reflecLs Lhe dlfflculL of assesslng Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhose kllled based on medla reporLs. 8elow we seL ouL
our crlLerla for Lhls assessmenL, buL we recognlze Lhese are sub[ecLlve deLermlnaLlons and LhaL every
counL wlll vary, Lhls lnevlLable varlance underscores Lhe lnherenL uncerLalnLy abouL drone sLrlke deaLh
!
"!
#!
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%!
&!!
&"!
&#!
&$!
&%!
'()*+( -.
/01*2345+341*
6-()0+7428
9*:
;8*)4<+
=-(0>+34-0
?-05 @+)
6-()0+7
A() B-(03 B41474+02
C3)-057D
/>*034.4*>
E+F48(8
E4048(8
B-(032 -. B41474+02 G*H-)3*> I477*> JK+L423+0 "!&&M

!
2
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

esLlmaLes based on medla reporLs, and LhaL Lhe u.S. governmenL has ulLlmaLe responslblllLy for
accounLlng for clvlllan casualLles and provldlng an offlclal esLlmaLe.
ctltetlo fot lJeotlfyloq clvllloos ooJ Mllltoot lo stlmotes
As we have noLed, Loo ofLen Lhe medla reporLs on whlch Lracklng organlzaLlons base Lhelr casualLy
counLs are weak, boLh because of Lhe amblgulLy of Lhe Lerms mlllLanL" and clvlllan" and Lhe llmlLaLlons
of Lhe medla reporLs' prlmary sources. We revlewed Lhe 2011 medla reporLs clLed by Lracklng
organlzaLlons closely Lo deLermlne Lhe relaLlve sLrengLh of Lhe ldenLlflcaLlons of mlllLanLs" and
clvlllans." Cur own analysls ls clrcumscrlbed by Lhe amblgulLy of Lhese Lerms, yeL we have Lrled Lo
lsolaLe relaLlve sLrengLhs and weaknesses based on Lhe followlng crlLerla:
5ttooq lJeotlflcotloo - where Lhe deceased are lndlvldually ldenLlfled by name, and/or where
Lhe reporLed ldenLlflcaLlon of Lhe deceased ls corroboraLed by an lndependenL lnvesLlgaLlon (Lhe
on-Lhe-ground lnvesLlgaLlon conducLed by Lhe AssoclaLed ress and publlshed ln lebruary 2012,
and Lhe prlmary lnvesLlgaLlons of Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm's researchers ln
WazlrlsLan.)
MeJlom lJeotlflcotloo - where Lhere are mulLlple orlglnal sources for Lhe ldenLlflcaLlon of Lhe
dead. lor example, boLh anonymous offlclals and a local resldenL.
weok lJeotlflcotloo - where Lhere ls only one source for Lhe ldenLlflcaLlon. lor Lhls purpose we
LreaL mulLlple anonymous offlclals as one source, and plural unnamed resldenLs as one source.
Whlle we have LreaLed ldenLlflcaLlon by name as a sLrong" ldenLlflcaLlon, noL all such cases are equal. ln
some cases, Lhe name of an oLherwlse unknown person ls all LhaL ls reporLed. ln oLher cases, such as Lhe
March 17 sLrlke, Lhe ldenLlflcaLlon of clvlllans boLh by name and by an unusually wlde array of orlglnal
sources, a sLrong narraLlve explalnlng Lhe clrcumsLances of how so many clvlllans apparenLly came Lo be
aLLacked, and reporLlng of mass proLesLs agalnsL clvlllan deaLhs as a resulL of Lhe aLLack, provlde for an
even more convlnclng ldenLlflcaLlon of clvlllan deaLhs, parLlcularly ln absence of a reasonable counLer-
narraLlve.
Whlle mosL named mlllLanLs are leaders, Lhe named mlllLanLs kllled also lnclude Lhe Lhree named
youngsLers" from Lhe !uly 12 sLrlke dlscussed above. Lven Lhe sLrongesL mlllLanL ldenLlflcaLlons,
ldenLlfylng named and known mlllLanL leaders, are falllble. 1hls has been proven ln numerous lnsLances
where Lhe reporLed dead have laLer surfaced allve and well.
32



32
A noLable example ls Pakeemullah Mehsud, Lhe leader of Lhe aklsLanl 1allban who was lncorrecLly
reporLed dead on a number of occaslons. See 8lll 8ogglo, Pakeemullah Mehsud - noL dead yeL," 1he
Long War !ournal, Aprll 29, 2010
hLLp://www.longwar[ournal.org/archlves/2010/04/a_senlor_paklsLanl_l.php. See also 8lll 8ogglo,
Pakeemullah Mehsud rumored kllled ln recenL drone sLrlke," 1he Long War !ournal, !anuary 13, 2012,
avallable aL hLLp://www.longwar[ournal.org/archlves/2012/01/hameemullah_mehsud_r.php.

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# !
3

8ecognlzlng LhaL such caLegorlzaLlons are more an arL Lhan a sclence, we have Lrled Lo be as LransparenL
as posslble as Lo how we have caLegorlzed each sLrlke ln our sLrlke-by-sLrlke analysls. We have also
broken some of Lhe flgures down lnLo more ob[ecLlve subparLs
33
:
SLrongly ldenLlfled MlllLanLs": 1oLal 103 ouL of 330-373 (32 of Lhe mlnlmum mlllLanL counL)
o 34 are ldenLlfled by name - Lhe deaLhs of 23 are unconflrmed, whlle Lhere ls some level
of conflrmaLlon for Lhe remalnlng 11 deaLhs
o 71 of Lhe deceased's reporLed ldenLlflcaLlon as a mlllLanL ls corroboraLed by an
lndependenL on-Lhe-ground lnvesLlgaLlon

SLrongly ldenLlfled Clvlllans": 1oLal 36 ouL of 72-133 (78 of Lhe mlnlmum clvlllan counL)
o 32 are ldenLlfled by name
o 16 of Lhe deceased's reporLed ldenLlflcaLlon as a clvlllan ls corroboraLed by an
lndependenL on-Lhe-ground lnvesLlgaLlon
o 1hls lncludes 12 lndlvlduals who are boLh ldenLlfled by name and whose clvlllan ldenLlLy
ls corroboraLed by lndependenL lnvesLlgaLlon

Weakly ldenLlfled MlllLanLs": 1oLal 113-232 ouL of 330-373
o 100-219 are ldenLlfled as mlllLanLs solely by anonymous offlclals. Cf Lhese:
! AbsoluLely no ldenLlfylng lnformaLlon ls provlded for 36-71 of Lhe deceased
! Some ldenLlfylng lnformaLlon ls provlded for Lhe remalnlng 64-148 (for example,
LhaL Lhey were forelgn", a llnk Lo a parLlcular mlllLanL group)
o 13 are ldenLlfled by a dlfferenL slngle orlglnal source, or Lhe orlglnal source ls noL
apparenL ln reporLs

Weakly ldenLlfled Clvlllans": 1oLal 2-73 ouL of 72-133
o 2-12 are ldenLlfled as clvlllans solely by Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm's prlmary
research, ln cases where Lhere are confllcLlng accounLs
o 0-33 are ldenLlfled as clvlllans solely by a resldenL or local sources
o 0-8 are ldenLlfled as clvlllans solely by an anonymous offlclal
1hese breakdowns are represenLed ln Lhe graphs below, as a porLlon of Lhe mlolmom flgures for LoLal
mlllLanLs and LoLal clvlllans kllled. SLrong" ldenLlflcaLlons are represenLed ln red, and weak"
ldenLlflcaLlons are represenLed ln blue.


33
Cur daLaseL and our analysls of Lhe sLrengLh of exlsLlng reporLs does noL lncorporaLe Lhe lnvesLlgaLlons reporLed
ln n?u CenLer for Puman 8lghLs and Clobal !usLlce & SLanford lnLernaLlonal Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc, llvloq uoJet
utooes 37-66 (2012), avallable aL www.llvlngunderdrones.org. 1hls reporL, released afLer Lhe flnallzaLlon of our
daLa, provldes furLher relevanL LesLlmony relaLlng Lo Lhe sLrlkes on March 17 and !une 13, and ls clLed by Lhe
8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm.

!
4
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#





Sole source: anonymous
omclals, no ldenufylng
lnformauon
Sole source: anonymous
omclals, some ldenufylng
lnformauon
CLher slngle source
ldenucauon or source
unclear
ldenued by name, deaLh
unconrmed
ldenued by name, deaLh
conrmed
/;<=> '?>?<=@<A B?>>CD7 0<EC@F<G ;H )DC@IJK=I;@
8ased on mlnlmum casualLy gures
/;<=> #?L?>?=@A B?>>CD7 0<EC@F<G ;H )DC@?JK=I;@
ldenued by name
8oLh ldenued by name and
reporLs corroboraLed by
lndependenL lnvesugauon
8eporLed ldenuLy
corroboraLed by lndependenL
lnvesugauon
Weak ldenucauon: based on
8ureau research buL
conlcung wlLh oLher reporLs
CLher
8ased on mlnlmum casualLy gures

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# !
5
E8 F%+D126-%$ %C ,;( G21"#6$* @2*1$6H1,6%$ <-,6+1,(-
We compared Lhe casualLy Lracklng conducLed by Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm, Lhe new
Amerlca loundaLlon, and Lhe Long War !ournal, for drone sLrlkes ln aklsLan ln 2011, wlLh Lhe prlmary
moLlvaLlon of undersLandlng Lhe qulLe sLark dlfferences beLween each organlzaLlon's resulLs. 1he
lnfluence Lhese Lracklng organlzaLlons have makes lL cruclal Lo undersLand Lhelr meLhodologles and Lhe
reasons why Lhey arrlve aL dlfferenL esLlmaLes. Where Lracklng organlzaLlons slgnlflcanLly underesLlmaLe
Lhe number of clvlllans kllled, Lhey may dlsLorL our percepLlons and provlde false [usLlflcaLlon Lo
pollcymakers who wanL Lo expand drone sLrlkes Lo new locaLlons, and agalnsL new groups.
We gave each organlzaLlon an opporLunlLy Lo respond on a sLrlke-by-sLrlke basls ln Lhose cases where
our concluslon on casualLy flgures dlffered from Lhelrs. As noLed above, Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon
decllned Lo speak wlLh us, buL dld slgnlflcanLly change Lhelr daLa afLer recelvlng our crlLlques.
34
8lll
8ogglo of Lhe Long War !ournal spoke Lo us and provlded many lnslghLs lnLo hls work, buL dld noL
respond dlrecLly Lo our sLrlke-by-sLrlke dlfferences. 1he 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm dld respond
and engaged ln a dlalogue wlLh us on parLlcular sLrlkes. ln a number of cases, Lhe 8ureau's feedback
caused us Lo revlslL our analysls, or Lhe 8ureau agreed wlLh us and declded Lo change Lhelr own daLa Lo
Lake accounL of polnLs LhaL we ralsed.
1tockloq clvllloo cosooltles
ln comparlng each organlzaLlon's work wlLh regards Lo clvlllan casualLles ln parLlcular, lL ls lmporLanL Lo
noLe LhaL Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm ls Lhe only organlzaLlon Lo have conslsLenLly and
acLlvely Lracked clvlllan casualLles.
Whlle Lhe Long War !ournal does provlde a clvlllan casualLy counL, 8lll 8ogglo noLed LhaL Lhls ls noL Lhe
!ournal's prlmary focus. 8aLher Lhe focus and experLlse of Lhe Long War !ournal ls ln paLLerns of
operaLlons - LhaL Lhe u.S. ls conducLlng Lhls program, who Lhey're LargeLlng, where Lhey're LargeLlng,
whose areas are belng LargeLed, whlch 1allban commander has purvlew over Lhose areas." 1hls ls
clearly reflecLed ln Lhe !ournal's work - unllke Lhe 8ureau and new Amerlca, Lhe Long War !ournal does
noL publlsh a sLrlke-by-sLrlke llsL of casualLles, whlch makes Lhelr LoLal casualLy counL somewhaL less
LransparenL. lL does however publlsh separaLe arLlcles Lracklng each sLrlke, ln whlch a greaL deal of
conLexLual lnformaLlon ls provlded Lo help Lhe reader undersLand Lhe place of each sLrlke wlLhln wlder
u.S. operaLlons. 1he !ournal also does excepLlonal work ln Lracklng Lhe alleged deaLhs of mlllLanL
leaders.
unLll laLe AugusL 2012, Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon's daLaseL dld noL lnclude a caLegory for clvlllans"
and Lracked only Lhe deaLhs of mlllLanLs", mlllLanL leaders", and oLhers." 1he oLher" caLegory was
amblguous and new Amerlca's calculus for lL was unclear, ln all of Lhe aklsLan 2011 sLrlkes where Lhe
new Amerlca loundaLlon had counLed oLher" deaLhs, we found LhaL Lhere were ln facL reporLed clvlllan
deaLhs. ln laLe AugusL 2012, new Amerlca replaced Lhe oLher" caLegory wlLh clvlllan" and unknown"
caLegorles. 1hls ls a poslLlve developmenL, maklng Lhe daLaseL more LransparenL. Accordlng Lo new

34
WheLher Lhls was a conLrlbuLlng cause Lo new Amerlca's changes ls unknown.

!
6
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

Amerlca, Lhe unknown" caLegory ls used lf Lhe varlous medla reporLs are so conLradlcLory LhaL [new
Amerlca ls] noL comforLable drawlng a concluslon."
33

new Amerlca's new clvlllan" esLlmaLe ls surprlslngly low compared Lo lLs old oLher" counL - a low-
range flgure of only 3 clvlllans" kllled compared Lo a low-range flgure 16 oLhers" kllled ln aklsLan ln
2011. Also perplexlng ls LhaL new Amerlca's new clvlllan counL ls only one per cenL of lLs LoLal deaLh
counL for Lhe year, whereas lL had unLll recenLly clalmed a clvlllan deaLh raLe ln 2011 of 7 percenL.
36
1he
shlfLlng classlflcaLlon of casualLles and Lhe amblguous daLa underscore Lhe lack of sLandardlzaLlon across
Lracklng organlzaLlon counLs, and Lhe falllblllLy of Lhese esLlmaLes as a gauge on Lhe Lrue number of
clvlllan deaLhs.
keosoos fot ulsctepoocles lo 1tockloq Otqoolzotloos cosoolty stlmotes
1. 1he number of medla sources relled on
As dlscussed above, Lhe wlder Lhe range of credlble medla sources relled upon, Lhe wlder Lhe recorded
reporLed casualLy flgures wlll be. ln many cases, one organlzaLlon has a lower mlnlmum and/or hlgher
maxlmum casualLy flgure Lhan Lhe oLhers slmply because lL clLed Lo an addlLlonal arLlcle provldlng LhaL
hlgher or lower number. As dlscussed above, Lhe dlverslLy and lnconslsLency ln Lhe reporLlng on drone
casualLles ln aklsLan makes Lhe enLlre buslness of medla Lracklng dlfflculL, as Lhere ls always Lhe
posslblllLy LhaL anoLher credlble arLlcle wlLh an agaln dlfferenL casualLy flgure ls ouL Lhere. We have
polnLed ouL Lo Lracklng organlzaLlons where Lhey are mlsslng an addlLlonal source whlch would [usLlfy a
lower or hlgher casualLy flgure. 1he 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm was Lhe only organlzaLlon Lo
respond Lo Lhls lnformaLlon, lncludlng by lncorporaLlng our addlLlonal source and updaLlng Lhelr flgures.
ln our vlew, Lhe wlder Lhe number of credlble sources relled upon, Lhe more accuraLe Lhe casualLy counL
ls as a flgure whlch ls lnLended Lo reflecL reporLs of deaLhs. ln llghL of Lhe sparse conLenL and llmlLed
sources relled on ln reporLs, Lhere ls rarely enough lnformaLlon for a Lracklng organlzaLlon Lo be able Lo
dlscard a reporL, excepL ln Lhe case of updaLed flgures.
2. 1he 8ureau's non-medla sources
1he 8ureau has underLaken Lwo fleld lnvesLlgaLlons lnLo posslble clvlllan casualLles ln aklsLan. 1hls
prlmary research ls one of Lhe 8ureau's sources for lLs casualLy flgures, buL ls noL lncorporaLed by elLher
Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon or Lhe Long War !ournal. 1he fallure Lo Lake Lhe 8ureau's own research
lnLo accounL ls one cause of dlscrepancles beLween Lhe 8ureau's flgures on Lhe one hand, and new
Amerlca and Lhe !ournal's on Lhe oLher. lnLeresLlngly, Lhe only organlzaLlon Lo clLe any of Lhe oLhers'
work ls Lhe 8ureau, whlch occaslonally clLes Lo Long War !ournal arLlcles.

33
new Amerlca loundaLlon, 1he ?ear of Lhe urone: MeLhodology" avallable aL
hLLp://counLerLerrorlsm.newamerlca.neL/drones/meLhodology.
36
eLer 8ergen and !ennlfer 8owland, ClA drone war ln aklsLan ln sharp decllne," Cnn, Mar. 28, 2012,
avallable aL hLLp://edlLlon.cnn.com/2012/03/27/oplnlon/bergen-drone-
decllne/lndex.hLml?lref=allsearch.

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# !
8
1he 8ureau's researchers underLook fleld lnvesLlgaLlons ln WazlrlsLan, where almosL all drone sLrlkes ln
aklsLan ln 2011 Look place. !ournallsLs do noL Lyplcally have access Lo Lhe area, and vlrLually no medla
reporLs are based on lnformaLlon gaLhered lnslde Lhe reglon flrsL hand or are able Lo be verlfled by Lhe
medla organlzaLlon lLself. As such, Lhe 8ureau's on-Lhe-ground research ls parLlcularly useful as a Lool for
corroboraLlng lnformaLlon presenLed ln medla reporLs.
ln llghL of Lhe 8ureau's access Lo Lhe reglon, Lhelr prlmary research ls ln our vlew aL leasL as rellable and
credlble as Lhe sLandard medla reporLs whlch all Lhree organlzaLlons rely on, lf noL slgnlflcanLly more so.
ln a number of cases, Lhe 8ureau's researchers have also been able Lo provlde a wealLh of lnformaLlon
regardlng Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhe dead, lncludlng names and Lrlbes. 1hls level of lnformaLlon ls rare ln medla
reporLs excepL ln cases where an lmporLanL mlllLanL leader has allegedly been kllled.
ln llghL of Lhe above, we have lncluded Lhe 8ureau's prlmary research ln our own counL. As dlscussed
above, here Lhe 8ureau's research corroboraLes Lhe reporLed ldenLlLy of Lhe dead, we have LreaLed LhaL
ldenLlflcaLlon as parLlcularly sLrong.
1he 8ureau has also clLed oLher non-medla sources LhaL are noL lncorporaLed by Lhe new Amerlca
loundaLlon or Lhe Long War !ournal, such as legal documenLs flled on behalf of Lhe alleged clvlllan
vlcLlms of drone aLLacks. Such documenLs are someLlmes able Lo provlde more deLalled lnformaLlon,
lncludlng Lhe names of Lhe deceased, Lhan ls avallable ln medla reporLs. Whlle lL mlghL be argued LhaL
Lhese documenLs are blased, havlng been flled on behalf of a parLy Lo llLlgaLlon, Lhey someLlmes provlde
addlLlonal corroboraLlng deLalls-someLlmes, far more lnformaLlon Lhan provlded ln medla reporLs LhaL
clLe unnamed an resldenL" or offlclal."

3. 1he problem of updaLlng flgures
lL ls noL unusual for deaLh counLs Lo change over Llme. 1hls ls Lo be expecLed ln any lnsLance of bomblng,
as more lnformaLlon becomes avallable, as more bodles are pulled from Lhe rubble, or as lnlLlal survlvors
dle from ln[urles.
Clven Lhe common lnconslsLencles ln Lhe reporLlng on drone casualLles, and Lhe facL LhaL each sLrlke ls
noL commonly revlslLed wlLh a number of updaLed arLlcles by Lhe same medla ouLleL, lL ls ofLen very
dlfflculL Lo deLermlne wheLher dlfferences ln reporLlng lndlcaLe LhaL laLer lnformaLlon has been updaLed,
or wheLher Lhe dlfferences are [usL anoLher lnsLance of lnconslsLenL reporLs. Clven Lhe dlfflculLy of
deLermlnlng Lhls lssue, we have Lrled Lo approach lL conservaLlvely.
1he organlzaLlons analyzed appear Lo LreaL Lhls lssue dlfferenLly, whlch ls one of Lhe causes of Lhe
dlscrepancles beLween Lhelr flgures. ln a number of cases we have also approached Lhe lssue dlfferenLly
Lo Lhe organlzaLlons analyzed, leadlng Lo some dlscrepancles beLween our own counL and Lhelrs. uue Lo
a lack of clarlLy ln Lhe reporLlng, Lhere ls some room for reasonable dlsagreemenL on how Lhls maLLer ls
LreaLed. ln falrness Lo Lhe organlzaLlons analyzed, we also have Lhe advanLage of comlng Lo Lhls exerclse
aL a laLer polnL ln Llme. We appreclaLe LhaL medla Lracklng of casualLles ls an exLremely Llme-lnLenslve,
and one may noL have Lhe resources Lo Lrack all new sLrlkes whlle conLlnulng Lo revlslL all of Lhe old
ones.

1
:
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

Lach such lncldenL ls dlscussed on a case-by-case basls ln our sLrlke-by-sLrlke analysls, buL ln general
lnconslsLenL updaLlng adds anoLher layer of amblgulLy Lo Lhe daLa currenLly lnformlng publlc debaLe on
drones. ln general, however, Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm appears Lo updaLe lLs counLs based
on laLer reporLs more conslsLenLly Lhan Lhe oLher organlzaLlons. ln some cases, Lhe 8ureau has LreaLed
earller flgures as superseded where we have conservaLlvely declded Lo conLlnue Lo LreaL Lhose flgures as
relevanL.
37

1he new Amerlca loundaLlon and Lhe Long War !ournal have ln some cases conLlnued Lo use flgures
whlch, ln our vlew, have been superseded. 8lll 8ogglo Lold us LhaL occaslonally, Lhe Long War !ournal
mlghL updaLe lLs LoLal flgures wlLhouL publlshlng a new arLlcle on Lhe sLrlke whlch Lhe new flgure comes
from. As dlscussed above, we have based our analysls of Lhe Long War !ournal's flgures on lLs arLlcles,
and for LhaL reason we cannoL be compleLely sure LhaL any lndlvldual flgure has noL been updaLed. ln a
number of cases, Lhe Long War !ournal's arLlcles have clLed flgures whlch we belleve have clearly been
superseded.
38

lor example, for a sLrlke ln norLh WazlrlsLan on !une 13, 2011, Lhe Long War !ournal relles on a now
dead llnk Lo uawn for lLs counL of 3 mlllLanLs kllled. Powever uawn reporLed agaln on Lhe sLrlke on !une
17, ldenLlfylng 4 clvlllans who were reporLedly kllled.
rlor Lo lLs recenL daLa overhaul ln AugusL 2012, a fallure Lo updaLe lLs flgures was also a ma[or problem
wlLh Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon's casualLy counL. 1he 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm descrlbed
new Amerlca's daLa durlng Lhls Llme as belng of a snapshoL naLure" LhaL only Lakes lnLo accounL a few
arLlcles on Lhe day of Lhe sLrlke.
39
Slnce updaLlng lLs daLa and lLs webslLe, new Amerlca has made
slgnlflcanL lmprovemenLs ln Lhls respecL.
40
Powever desplLe updaLlng lLs daLa, Lhere are a few lnsLances
ln whlch new Amerlca conLlnues Lo use flgures whlch we belleve have been superseded.
41


37
See for example, ln Lhe Columbla uaLaseL: SLrlke 10, lebruary 20, 2011, SLrlke 18, March 13, 2011,
SLrlke 36, !une 8, 2011, SLrlke 41, !une 27, 2011, SLrlke 38, SepLember 11, 2011, SLrlke 74, november 16,
2011.
38
See for example ln Lhe Columbla uaLaseL: SLrlke 11, lebruary 21, 2011, SLrlke 21, March 17, 2011,
SLrlke 24, May 6, 2011, SLrlke 73, november 13, 2011.
39
Chrls Woods Analysls: Cnn experL's clvlllan drone deaLh numbers don'L add up" 1he 8ureau of
lnvesLlgaLlve !ournallsm, !uly 17, 2012, avallable aL
hLLp://www.LhebureaulnvesLlgaLes.com/2012/07/17/analysls-cnn-experLs-clvlllan-drone-deaLh-
numbers-donL-add-up/
40
8uL see n?u CenLer for Puman 8lghLs and Clobal !usLlce & SLanford lnLernaLlonal Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc,
llvloq uoJet utooes 48 (sLaLlng LhaL new Amerlca loundaLlon's sLrlke daLa do noL appear Lo be
'updaLed regularly' Lo lnclude Lhe mosL up-Lo-daLe lnformaLlon abouL Lhe number and ldenLlLles of
vlcLlms kllled ln drone sLrlkes").
41
See ln Lhe Columbla uaLaseL: SLrlke 11, lebruary 21, 2011, see also SLrlke 21, March 17, 2011. lL ls
puzzllng LhaL new Amerlca does noL lncorporaLe Lhe A's lndependenL lnvesLlgaLlon from lebruary 2012
ln lLs llsL of sources, alLhough AssoclaLed ress's flgure flLs roughly wlLhln new Amerlca's range. As one
of Lhe very few lnsLances of on Lhe ground lnvesLlgaLlon, AssoclaLed ress's reporL ls, ln our vlew, a
parLlcularly valuable and credlble source. ln a Cnn arLlcle before lLs daLa updaLe, eLer 8ergen
compared new Amerlca's flgures Lo AssoclaLed ress's - a curlous approach for a medla Lracklng
organlzaLlon whlch one mlghL expecL Lo lncorporaLe such reporLs. See eLer 8ergen and !ennlfer

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# 1
9

4. ulsregardlng Sources
ln some cases, Lhe organlzaLlon's flgures do noL reflecL Lhe range reporLed ln lLs own llsLed sources.
Where lower flgures ln a range are dlsregarded by Lhe organlzaLlon clLlng Lhem, we assume Lhls ls
because Lhe organlzaLlon clLlng Lhem has LreaLed Lhose flgures as superseded, a maLLer whlch we
address above. ulsregardlng upper flgures ls however, ln our vlew, sllghLly harder Lo explaln.
ln some cases lL may slmply be an error. 1hls was Lhe case wlLh Lhe one lnsLance ln whlch we found Lhe
8ureau had noL lncorporaLed Lhe upper flgure from one of lLs llsLed sources, a slmple mlsLake whlch Lhe
8ureau Lhen recLlfled.
1he fallure Lo lnclude some flgures ls however dellberaLe ln Lhe case of Lhe Long War !ournal, whlch
does noL counL a range of casualLy flgures, wlLh an upper and lower counL, buL raLher provldes a slngle
flgure. 8lll 8ogglo explalned Lo us LhaL where Lhere ls an lnconslsLency beLween Lhe sources LhaL he
clLes, he Lakes Lhe flgure LhaL he belleves ls Lhe mosL rellable.
42

ln some lnsLances Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon has also falled Lo lncorporaLe an upper flgure reporLed
ln lLs sources.
43
Slnce new Amerlca ordlnarlly reporLs a range of medla flgures, Lhe reason for Lhese
omlsslons ls noL always clear. new Amerlca lndlcaLes ln lLs meLhodology LhaL lL wlll only counL reporLed
clvlllan deaLhs lf Lhey are reporLed ln more Lhan one medla source.
44
lor reasons dlscussed above, ln our
vlew Lhls ls noL approprlaLe. As reporLs of drone sLrlkes are based on so few orlglnal sources, Lhe
reporLlng ls erraLlc, and Lhe basls for ldenLlflcaLlon ls generally exLremely weak, lL ls noL necessarlly
senslble Lo LreaL a clalm as rellable based solely on Lhe number of ouLleLs lL ls repeaLed ln. lor example,
whlle Lhe same offlclals" may be quoLed ln Lhe wlres, perhaps only one paper wlll quoLe a resldenL" or
a famlly member. As offlclals" are Lhe mosL commonly clLed source, Lhls also skews sources. lor
example, ln regard Lo Lhe March 17 sLrlke, new Amerlca llsLs only a varleLy of offlclals" as Lhe orlglnal
source, whereas our own analysls ldenLlfles an excepLlonally large and dlverse array of sources.
43


8owland, Clvlllan casualLles plummeL ln drone sLrlkes," Cnn, !uly 14, 2012, avallable aL
hLLp://edlLlon.cnn.com/2012/07/13/oplnlon/bergen-clvlllan-casualLles/lndex.hLml.
42
Mr. 8ogglo gave one example of xlnhua reporLlng 11 mlllLanLs kllled, and Agence lrance resse (Al)
reporLlng 12 mlllLanLs kllled. As Lhe Al reporL was publlshed a llLLle laLer and he LrusLed Al's
lnformaLlon more, he used Lhe Al number. Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc phone lnLervlew wlLh 8lll
8ogglo (!uly 23, 2012).
43
See for example ln Lhe Columbla uaLaseL: SLrlke 7, !anuary 23, 2011, SLrlke 28, May 16, 2011 (fallure
Lo lncorporaLe Cnn's upper flgure of 10, alLhough perhaps LreaLlng lL as a LoLal for Lwo sLrlkes on Lhe
day).
44
new Amerlca loundaLlon, 1he ?ear of Lhe urone: MeLhodology" avallable aL
hLLp://counLerLerrorlsm.newamerlca.neL/drones/meLhodology
43
lncludlng: anonymous offlclals, named offlclals (lncludlng Army Chlef of SLaff Cen. Ashfaq kayanl,
Ambassador Pussaln Paqqanl, lorelgn SecreLary Salman 8ashlr, Covernor Masood kasur, rlme MlnlsLer
Cllanl, Member of naLlonal Assembly kamran khan), Lhe 1allban, unnamed and anonymous
locals/Lrlbesmen, named locals/Lrlbesmen (farmer Cul Ahmed, Samlullah khan), 8ureau lnvesLlgaLlon,
legal documenLs and courL proceedlngs lodged on behalf of vlcLlms.

1
!
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

ln anoLher example, new Amerlca had lnlLlally lncluded a number of references Lo Lhe repuLed Afghan
publlcaLlon a[hwok. Whlle a[hwok had reporLed clvlllan casualLles, new Amerlca had noL lncorporaLed
Lhese clalms lnLo lLs daLa. ln Lhe mosL recenL verslon of Lhe daLaseL, all of Lhe references Lo a[hwok
have slmply been deleLed.
Moreover, ln some cases where Lhere are mulLlple sLrlkes on one day, new Amerlca appears Lo LreaL Lhe
facL LhaL some medla ouLleLs have noL reporLed on all of Lhe sLrlkes as evldence LhaL noL all of Lhe sLrlkes
occurred. lor example, for Lwo sLrlkes on !uly 11, 2011, medla reporLs lndlcaLe LhaL aL leasL 3 people
were kllled ln one sLrlke, and aL leasL 10 ln anoLher sLrlke. Powever, new Amerlca Lakes a mlnlmum
counL of 7 for boLh sLrlkes LogeLher, based on a 88C reporL. 1he 88C reporL, Lhough, refers only Lo one
of Lhe Lwo sLrlkes: an aLLack on a vehlcle, and noL an addlLlonal aLLack on a compound. As such, new
Amerlca's daLa elLher lnLenLlonally or mlsLakenly conflaLes Lhe Lwo sLrlkes, wlLh Lhe effecL LhaL lLs
mlnlmum casualLy counL mlsses an enLlre sLrlke. lf new Amerlca's omlsslon was dellberaLe and based on
Lhe 88C's fallure Lo reporL Lhe second sLrlke, lL would noL ln our vlew be approprlaLe, mosL lndlvldual
medla ouLleLs do noL reporL on every slngle sLrlke.
ln our vlew, accounLlng for a range of casualLy flgures, as ls done by Lhe 8ureau of lnvesLlgaLlve
!ournallsm and generally by Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon, ls a more accuraLe and lnformaLlve way of
Lracklng reporLed casualLles Lhan Lhe Long War !ournal's approach. WhaL ls belng Lracked ls reporLs of
deaLhs, and where credlble reporLs presenL dlverse resulLs LhaL should be reflecLed.
lf upper or lower flgures are dlscarded and sources are used selecLlvely for any reason oLher Lhan Lhe
exlsLence of updaLed lnformaLlon, Lhese reasons need Lo be made clear and expllclL ln Lhe daLa and wlLh
Lhe flnal counLs, as whaL ls belng counLed ls Lhen someLhlng more reflned Lhan reporLed deaLhs" whlch
ls how Lhe sLaLlsLlcs are presenLed.

4. new Amerlca loundaLlon's unknown" and clvlllan" caLegorles
As noLed above, new Amerlca lncludes an unknown" caLegory ln cases where Lhere are confllcLlng
reporLs abouL Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhe dead. 1hls ls a recenL developmenL LhaL was added afLer we had
compleLed our own 2011 analysls. Cur own approach Lo confllcLlng reporLs has been Lo Lake a lower
flgure of 0 ln boLh Lhe clvlllan and mlllLanL counLs.
ln our vlew, new Amerlca's approach ln Lhls respecL ls a reasonable and meLhodologlcally sound one.
Powever ln pracLlce, our vlew ls LhaL Lhe use of Lhe unknown" caLegory ln Lhe March 17 sLrlke has
unreallsLlcally skewed Lhe clvlllan deaLh counL downwards. AlLhough Lhe numbers are dlfflculL Lo
preclsely deLermlne ln LhaL case, reporLs are, ln our vlew, clear LhaL a large number of clvlllans and some
mlllLanLs dled. ln our vlew, 24 clvlllans from Lhls sLrlke alone are parLlcularly sLrongly ldenLlfled.
1he use of Lhe unknown" caLegory also slLs somewhaL uncomforLably alongslde new Amerlca's
meLhodology of noL counLlng reporLed clvlllan deaLhs unless Lhey are found ln more Lhan one (Lngllsh
language) news ouLleL. As such, whlle Lhe unknown" caLegory ls used ln cases where we would
caLegorlze Lhe ldenLlflcaLlon of clvlllans as sLrong, a number of reporLs of clvlllan deaLhs are noL
accounLed for ln elLher Lhe upper- clvlllan casualLy flgure or Lhe unknown" counL. 1hls ls a maLLer of

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# 1
1
meLhodologlcal dlfference ln oplnlon, buL ln our vlew Lhe flnal resulL ls noL an enLlrely accuraLe porLrayal
of whaL ls presenLed ln Lhe medla.
46


ltoblemotlc clvllloo cosoolty stlmotes
Cur close revlew of Lhe daLa suggesLs meLhodologlcal problems ln Lhe clvlllan casualLy Lracklng of Lhe
new Amerlca loundaLlon and Lhe Long War !ournal. Whlle ln many cases Lhere ls room for reasonable
dlsagreemenL on Lhe meLhodologlcal approach Laken, Lhe LoLal effecL of numerous problems we found
resulLs ln slgnlflcanL undercounLlng of clvlllan casualLles ln parLlcular. As dlscussed, slnce Lhe purporLed
focus of Long War !ournal ls noL clvlllan casualLy Lracklng, Lhls ls perhaps noL surprlslng.
1he severlLy of Lhe undercounL ls apparenL when we compare our flndlngs of sLrongly" ldenLlfled
clvlllan deaLhs Lo new Amerlca and Long War !ournal's flndlngs of clvlllan deaLhs generally. We have
assessed 32 of Lhe reporLed dead as sLrongly ldenLlfled as clvlllans, Lhey are ldenLlfled by name ln medla
reporLs. Cur flgure ls slgnlflcanLly hlgher Lhan Lhe totol clvlllan deaLh counLs of new Amerlca and Lhe
Long War !ournal, aL 3-9 and 30, respecLlvely. 1helr flgures do noL even capLure Lhe range of reporLed
clvlllan dead ln one slngle sLrlke on March 17, 2011-one for whlch Lhere ls an excepLlonally sLrong case
of numerous clvlllan deaLhs.
lnLeresLlngly, Lhe same severlLy of undercounLlng compared Lo sLrengLh of reporLlng ls noL apparenL ln
Lhe mlllLanL casualLy counLs. 1he mlllLanL casualLy counLs rely heavlly on whaL we have assessed as very
weak reporLed ldenLlflcaLlons. new Amerlca and Lhe Long War !ournal's lower mlllLanL counL ls hlgher
Lhan our own, and slgnlflcanLly hlgher Lhan our counL of sLrongly ldenLlfled mlllLanLs. Whlle Lhe laLLer ls
Lo be expecLed, lL conLrasLs sharply wlLh Lhe comparlson Lo our clvlllan casualLy sLaLlsLlcs.

46
See for example Lhe new Amerlca loundaLlon's daLa and reporLlng of Lhe followlng sLrlkes (all ln
2011): 7 !anuary Char Laley, 21 lebruary Spalga, 8 March Landldog, 27 !une ManLol, 1 AugusL Azam
Warsak, 16 AugusL Mlranshah.

1
2
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

E78 I8/8 J%K(2$+($,L- 5(-D%$-6?6'6,3 ,% !""%0$, C%2 :2%$(
/,26#( :(1,;-
1he dlscrepancles ln counLs by Lhe Lracklng organlzaLlons-credlble and well-resourced lnsLlLuLlons-
underscore Lhe dlfflculLy of galnlng an accuraLe undersLandlng of Lhe lmpacL of drone sLrlkes from medla
reporLs alone. 1he publlc and some pollcymakers are compelled Lo rely on Lhese esLlmaLes Lo [udge Lhe
lmpacL of drone sLrlkes because Lhe u.S. governmenL has noL offlclally provlded any lnformaLlon on
drone sLrlke deaLhs. Whlle LouLlng Lhe success of Lhe drone program and parLlcular hlgh-proflle sLrlkes,
u.S. offlclals have avolded provldlng speclflcs-and clLed naLlonal securlLy. lndeed, alLhough lL has
acknowledged operaLlons ln aklsLan and ?emen as a general maLLer, lL has refused Lo offlclally
acknowledge Lhe exlsLence of lLs drones program ln courL or open sesslons of Congress-forecloslng
effecLlve llLlgaLlon and prevenLlng lnformed publlc debaLe.
47
Cn Lhe oLher hand, Lhe ClA has aggresslvely
fended off crlLlclsm Lhrough anonymous leaks Lo Lhe press-a forum ln whlch lLs clalms cannoL be
acLlvely quesLloned.
1he publlc has no lnformaLlon on how and wheLher Lhe u.S. Lracks and lnvesLlgaLes poLenLlal clvlllan
deaLhs. ?eL, ln oLher confllcL seLLlngs such as AfghanlsLan, u.S. offlclals have provlded some of Lhls
lnformaLlon, wlLhouL compromlslng u.S. securlLy.
48
As Lhe u.S. and oLher governmenLs anLlclpaLe Lhe
conLlnued and expanded use of leLhal drone Lechnology, Lhey owe Lhe publlc a genulne assessmenL of
Lhe lmpacL of drone sLrlkes, lncludlng Lhe effecL on local clvlllan populaLlons.
ln clvllloo lmpoct of utooes. uoexomloeJ costs, uooosweteJ Ooestloos, a SepLember 2012 reporL by Lhe
Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc and Lhe CenLer for Clvlllans ln ConfllcL, we explalned LhaL coverL drone warfare
en[oys wlde pollLlcal supporL because lL ls consldered an aLLracLlve alLernaLlve Lo cosLly and bloody
counLerlnsurgency sLraLegles such as Lhose Lhe u.S. has pursued ln lraq and AfghanlsLan.
49
lurLhermore,
Lhe preclslon capablllLles of Lhe Lechnology-and Lhe AdmlnlsLraLlon's references Lo lLs lnLernal

47
ln ongolng lreedom of lnformaLlon AcL llLlgaLlon, Lhe u.S. governmenL's poslLlon ls LhaL lL can nelLher
conflrm nor deny wheLher lL has records responslve Lo Lhe requesL because Lhe facL of ClA lnvolvemenL
ln drone sLrlkes ls noL offlclally acknowledged and remalns classlfled. 5ee 8rlef for Appellee, ACLu v. ClA,
no. 11-3320 (u.C. Clr. May 21, 2012). See also hlllp AlsLon, 1he ClA and 1argeLed kllllngs 8eyond
8orders," ubllc Law & Legal 1heory 8esearch aper Serles, Worklng aper no. 11-64, aL 78-86
(SepLember 2011) (descrlblng barrlers Lo [udlclal revlew of drone sLrlkes and Lhe ClA's acLlons generally).
48
See Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc & CenLer for Clvlllans ln ConfllcL, 1he Clvlllan lmpacL of urones:
unexamlned CosLs, unanswered CuesLlons 44-43 (2012).
49
See Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc & CenLer for Clvlllans ln ConfllcL, 1he Clvlllan lmpacL of urones:
unexamlned CosLs, unanswered CuesLlons 67-71 (2012), uavld L. Sanger, CharLlng Cbama's !ourney Lo
a ShlfL on AfghanlsLan," n.?. 1lmes, May 19, 2012 (descrlblng resldenL Cbama's 'llghL fooLprlnL
sLraLegy,' ln whlch Lhe unlLed SLaLes sLrlkes from a dlsLance buL does noL engage ln ears-long, enervaLlng
occupaLlons"), !lm Mlchaels & 1om vanden 8rook, reclslon sLrlkes are new weapon of cholce," uSA
1oday, CcL. 1, 2011 (quoLlng former ClA offlclal 8ruce 8eldel: "1hls admlnlsLraLlon has made a very
consclous declslon LhaL lL wanLs Lo geL ouL of large convenLlonal-warfare soluLlons and wanLs Lo
emphaslze counLerLerrorlsm and a llghLer fooLprlnL on Lhe ground").

#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)# 1
3
dellberaLlons and processes for decldlng who may be kllled-provlde seemlng assurance LhaL as Lhe u.S.
expands drone sLrlkes Lo occur more frequenLly and ln more reglons, Lhe sLrlkes are neverLheless
carefully llmlLed.
30
lndeed, AdmlnlsLraLlon offlclals have repeaLedly emphaslzed LhaL drone sLrlkes
agalnsL mulLlple Al Caeda afflllaLes are surglcally callbraLed Lo remove Lhe cancer" of Al Caeda wlLhouL
affecLlng Lhe surroundlng Llssue" of clvlllans ln Lhe area.
31
?eL Lhese pronouncemenLs abouL Lhe efflcacy
of drone warfare are unproven, as we descrlbed ln clvllloo lmpoct of utooes.
As Lhe u.S. governmenL conLemplaLes conLlnued and expanded drone sLrlkes, lL has a responslblllLy Lo
provlde answers on Lhe quesLlon of clvlllan casualLles. 1hese answers should go beyond general
asserLlons of exLremely low clvlllan casualLles. lnsLead, Lhe u.S. governmenL should, Lo Lhe exLenL
pracLlcable, provlde Lhe publlc lLs esLlmaLe of Lhe number of lndlvlduals kllled ouLslde AfghanlsLan.
1o ensure lnformed debaLe on wbo ls belng kllled, Lhe u.S. governmenL should dlsclose Lhe legal
sLandards and deflnlLlons lL uses when decldlng who lL may be dlrecLly LargeLed ln a drone sLrlke versus
who lL belleves ls proLecLed from dlrecL LargeLlng. 1he complex legal lssues ralsed by drone sLrlkes
cannoL be resolved solely by reference Lo Lhe laws of war, oLher bodles of law place slgnlflcanL llmlLs on
LargeLlng operaLlons, and Lhere are lmporLanL debaLes abouL, for lnsLance, Lhe appllcablllLy of
lnLernaLlonal human rlghLs law and Lhe laws of war. We do noL address Lhem here, lnsLead, our
emphasls ls LhaL Lhe u.S. governmenL should descrlbe lLs sLandards.
32

Moreover, Lhe u.S. governmenL should engage wlLh reporLs by [ournallsLs and human rlghLs groups LhaL
puL forward evldence of clvlllan casualLles. unforLunaLely, ln Lhe pasL Lhe u.S. governmenL's approach
has for Lhe mosL parL been Lo decllne commenL or, ln some cases, asserL Lhrough anonymous leaks LhaL
lndlvlduals documenLlng clvlllan harm are compllclL ln an efforL Lo help Al Caeda succeed" or LhaL Lhey
unwlLLlngly draw on false propaganda clalms by mlllLanLs."
33


30
Advanced Lechnology can provlde pollcymakers erroneous feellngs of conLrol and undersLandlng,
leadlng Lo mls[udgmenLs LhaL may lncrease Lhelr wllllngness Lo become lnvolved" ln confllcLs. See !ack
M. 8eard, Law and War ln Lhe vlrLual Lra, 103 Am. !. lnL'l L. 409, n. 167 (2009) (clLlng 1homas x.
Pammes, 1be 5lloq ooJ tbe 5ooe. Oo wot lo tbe 21
st
ceototy 194 (2006).
31
See !ohn 8rennan, 1he LLhlcs and Lfflcacy of Lhe resldenL's CounLerLerrorlsm SLraLegy," Aprll 30,
2012 (remarks) (lL's Lhls surglcal preclslon-Lhe ablllLy, wlLh laser-llke focus, Lo ellmlnaLe Lhe cancerous
Lumor called an al-Ca'lda LerrorlsL whlle llmlLlng damage Lo Lhe Llssue around lL-LhaL makes Lhls
counLerLerrorlsm Lool so essenLlal").
32
lf Lhe u.S. governmenL ls uslng lnLernaLlonal humanlLarlan law, lL should descrlbe lLs sLandards and
deflnlLlons regardlng who may be sub[ecL Lo dlrecL aLLack as a clvlllan dlrecLly parLlclpaLlng ln hosLlllLles,
and for how long, and wheLher Lhere oLher caLegorles or clrcumsLances for whlch Lhe u.S. belleves lL
may dlrecLly LargeL lndlvlduals. 1he governmenL should also clarlfy Lhe number of lndlvlduals lL belleves
have been kllled ln drone sLrlkes who may noL be sub[ecL Lo dlrecL aLLack under Lhe laws of war.
33
ln lebruary 2012, unnamed offlclals responded Lo a reporL of ClA sLrlkes LargeLlng funeral-goers and
oLher clvlllans by sLaLlng: Cne musL wonder why an efforL LhaL has so carefully gone afLer LerrorlsLs
who ploL Lo klll clvlllans has been sub[ecLed Lo so much mlslnformaLlon. LeL's be under no llluslons -
Lhere are a number of elemenLs who would llke noLhlng more Lhan Lo mallgn Lhese efforLs and help Al
Caeda succeed." ScoLL Shane, u.S. Sald Lo 1argeL 8escuers aL urone SLrlkes SlLes," n.?. 1lmes, leb. 3,

1
4
#$%&'()* +&'*, -).+/0 #%),)#

lnsLead of Lhls approach, Lhe u.S. governmenL should recognlze and lnvesLlgaLe reporLs by [ournallsLs
and human rlghLs groups regardlng clvlllan casualLles. 1hls would be ln accordance wlLh u.S. pollcy ln
AfghanlsLan, where mlllLary personnel musL lmmedlaLely lnvesLlgaLe any poLenLlal lncldenL of clvlllan
harm.
34

lnvesLlgaLlons conducLed wlLh a degree of Lransparency can send a meanlngful slgnal Lo forelgn publlcs
LhaL Lhe u.S. ls commlLLed Lo human dlgnlLy and human llfe. 1hey offer an opporLunlLy Lo address
allegaLlons LhaL Lhe u.S. ls dellberaLely LargeLlng clvlllans and clvlllan ob[ecLs such as mosques and
schools.
33
lnvesLlgaLlons-and an overall accounLlng for clvlllan deaLhs and oLher harm caused by drone
sLrlkes-are a cruclal sLep Lo dlgnlfylng Lhe concerns of local communlLles and famllles lmpacLed by u.S.
drone sLrlkes. lor Lhe u.S. publlc and pollcymakers, Lhey are necessary Lo help lnform debaLe over
wheLher and how u.S. drone sLrlkes conLlnue.


2012. More expllclLly, ln May 2012, Lhe new ?ork 1lmes reporLed an unnamed senlor offlclal as sLaLlng
LhaL reporLs of clvlllan deaLhs unwlLLlngly draw on false propaganda clalms by mlllLanLs." !o 8ecker &
ScoLL Shane, SecreL 'klll LlsL' roves a 1esL of Cbama's rlnclples and Wlll," n.?. 1lmes, May 29, 2012.
34
nA1C/lSAl 1acLlcal ulrecLlve, 30 uec. 2008, para. 6 (Whenever we belleve we may have caused
clvlllan casualLles or clvlllan properLy damage we wlll lmmedlaLely lnvesLlgaLe Lhe lncldenL").
33
Columbla Puman 8lghLs Cllnlc & CenLer for Clvlllans ln ConfllcL, 1he Clvlllan lmpacL of urones:
unexamlned CosLs, unanswered CuesLlons 46 (2012).