No NATO Action Against

Russia or Islamic State

BY DAVID FRANCIS-AUGUST 29, 2014
A day after President Barack Obama said that the United States
has no plan for countering the Islamic State, that it would not confront the
Islamist militant group in Syria alone, and that it doesn't intend anything
stronger than scal sanctions to punish !ussia for in"ading Ukraine, sources
within #A$O said that the alliance is also unlikely to act directly%
Instead, &uropean Union leaders, who are meeting in Brussels on Saturday,
Aug% '(, are likely to issue a new round of sanctions in retaliation for
!ussia's most recent incursion into Ukraine% A #A$O source familiar with
discussions on the &U's response to !ussia told)oreign Policy that the new
sanctions could be le"ied as early as Saturday%
*It's ob"ious at this point that there are going to be new sanctions,* the
source said% *All of this was decided before what happened yesterday%*
According to a British report obtained by Bloomberg, the United +ingdom
will recommend banning !ussia's access to the Society for ,orldwide
Interbank )inancial $elecommunication, or S,I)$, a key a"enue through
which !ussia acccesses the international nancial system%
$he source was referring to comments Obama made $hursday, which
included his plan to build a coalition of countries willing to take the ght to
the Islamic State, also known as ISIS and ISI-, in Syria%
Obama .. who will also attend the #A$O summit in ,ales ne/t week
..tapped Secretary of State 0ohn +erry to lead the diplomatic e1ort to get
allies on board against the Sunni militant group that has sei2ed wide swaths
of territory in Ira3 and Syria%
*$he "iolence that's been taking place in Syria has ob"iously gi"en ISI- a
safe ha"en there in ungo"erned spaces, and in order for us to degrade ISI-
o"er the long term, we're going to ha"e to build a regional strategy,*
Obama said during $hursday's ,hite 4ouse news conference%
*As I'"e said, rooting out a cancer like ISI- will not be 3uick or easy, but I'm
condent that we can and we will, working closely with our allies and our
partners,* the president added%
$he source also rea5rmed Obama's assertion that there would be no
immediate military response to !ussia's opening of a third front in
itsincurious into eastern Ukraine, which came about si/ months after it rst
drew ,estern ire for anne/ing 6rimea in 7arch%
*,e don't e/pect to ha"e a ma8or resolution coming from #A$O% $his is
going to be the work of indi"idual allies, "ery likely this weekend,* the
source said% *,here we're going to be a week from now is anyone's guess%
,e're going to be bound by the limitations built in the 9#A$O: treaty% ,e're
not going to inter"ene militarily%*
$his source also said that #A$O is not likely to act as an umbrella for any
coordinated action against the Islamic State in Syria or Ira3%
*$here's going to be a lot of discussion about what allies can do,* the
source said% *,hat #A$O can do is more of a 3uestion% $here is no intention
of ha"ing a #A$O multinational operation in Ira3 or Syria%*
$he source indicated that #A$O could be in"ol"ed in training or supplying
Ira3i troops% 4owe"er, *for anything large scale, you would need to ha"e
boots on the ground, which we're not going to ha"e%*
In an inter"iew with )oreign Policy, #A$O ;eputy Secretary.<eneral
Ale/ander =ershbow conrmed that the alliance wouldn't undertake
coordinated action in Ukraine% 4e said that the alliance would continue
*capacity building, but it's not direct security assistance% #A$O simply
doesn't do that% $his is a 3uestion for each of the nations to decide what
they can do%*
On the threat posed by the Islamic State, =ershbow said that #A$O could
assist Ira3i forces through a training program that has been shel"ed since
the end of the Ira3 war% But he added, *$here's reluctance to make a
commitment 9to the program: before 9Ira3i politicians: get their act
together%*
*,e ha"e been paying more and more attention and stepping up
intelligence sharing on the threat,* he added% *But at this point, no one is
proposing any direct military action by #A$O%*
$hese comments reinforce what Obama said $hursday% $hroughout the
week, multiple reports of imminent airstrikes in Syria ratcheted up
e/pectations of impending action% 4owe"er, Obama said that any action in
Syria would be done only in consultation with allies% 4e said that he and
+erry would meet with #A$O allies ne/t week and that then +erry would
meet with cooperati"e leaders in the 7iddle &ast to de"elop a strategy to
confront the group%
All this comes as Ukraine is making a new push to 8oin #A$O% Ukrainian
Prime 7inister Arseniy >atsenyuk announced )riday that he would introduce
a bill canceling his country's status as a nonaligned country and restoring
*its aspirations to become a #A$O member%*
*$his law will prohibit the Ukrainian state to become part of any other
economic, political or military alliances that would hinder the main goal of
accession to the &U,* >atsenyuk later wrote on )acebook%
=ershbow noted that Ukraine began the formal process of gaining #A$O
membership in ?((@% 4e said it is up to +ie" to meet the standards needed
to 8oin the alliance%
*It's their choice% It's sort of the principle that e"ery nation has the right to
secure its security arrangements,* he said% *6learly, this is a "ery sensiti"e
issue with the !ussians%*
*Ukraine's potential membership in #A$O, in light of 9!ussia's: aggression ..
many people in #A$O wouldn't be surprised that they started to talk up the
A option again%*
#ew sanctions against !ussia by the &uropean Union would be a signicant
escalation% Since the Ukraine crisis began, &urope, led by <ermany, had
been reluctant to punish !ussia se"erely, fearing collateral damage to
&uropean economies% But after pro.!ussian separatists shot down 7alaysia
Airlines )light BC, the se"erity of &uropean sanctions were increased, and
countersanctions targeting &uropean and American agricultural products
were issued by 7oscow%
#ow, with !ussian troops ghting along three fronts in Ukraine, it appears
as if harsher sanctions are on the way% Speaking ahead of the summit, and
without specifying what the new punishments would be, &uropean foreign
ministers said that they ha"e no choice but to le"y new penalties%
*$he &uropean Union should be ready to mo"e forward with possible new
measures against !ussia because the situation is still getting worse,*
the Associated Press 3uoted &stonian )oreign 7inister Urmas Paet as
saying%
7eanwhile, !ussian President =ladimir Putin remained deant, comparing
Ukraine to #a2i <ermany%
*Sad as it might seem, this reminds me of the e"ents of ,orld ,ar II, when
the <erman #a2i occupants surrounded our cities, like -eningrad, and
directly shelled those cities and their inhabitants,* Putin said, according to
state.controlled !$%
4e also called on !ussian.backed separatists to create a *humanitarian
corridor for Ukrainian ser"ice members who ha"e been surrounded, so as to
a"oid any needless loss of life, gi"ing them the opportunity to lea"e the
combat area unimpeded and reunite with their families, to return them to
their mothers, wi"es, and children, and to 3uickly pro"ide medical
assistance to those who were in8ured in the course of the military
operation%*
Any new sanctions would ha"e to be appro"ed by the entire &uropean
Union% ,hen the crisis began, the <erman public and business community,
as well as some in the <erman political establishment, were reluctant to
punish Putin% 4owe"er, according to Ulrich Speck, "isiting scholar at the
6arnegie &urope think tank in Brussels, Putin's latest incursion gi"es
<erman 6hancellor Angela 7erkel no choice but to impose harsher
penalties%
*$here is no other gameD there is no plan B,* Speck told )oreign Policy%
*#either the &U nor the U%S% is going to go to war% $he only hope now is to
really increase the pressure so that Putin at least will limit his recent
incursion%
*$his is the failure of more than half a year of really tough e1orts, especially
on the <erman side,* Ulrich added% *All these meetings, all this diplomacy
has really been e/hausted and it failed% $here is no other way to stop
Putin%*
Photo by 6hip Somode"illa E <etty Images #ews
Posted by Th!"