Sea Level Rise, Risk Management,

Science, and What We Can Do

December 2013
Clearwater talk
Jan W. Dash, PhD

Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker
Climate Initiative Chair, Unitarian Universalist UN Office
1 2/13/13
Outline
! Review: Global Warming due to Humans
! Review: Climate Impacts
! Sea Level Rise SLR How Much?
! SLR Impacts So What?
! SLR Risk Management What can we do?
! SLR Ethics Why should we do anything?
! What about the climate science deniers?
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Global warming exists, due to humans. Natural
variation out (El Nios/La Nias, volcanoes, sun):
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Recent Global Warming is due to Human
Generated Greenhouse Gases CO2...
20,000 years
of data;
CO2 spike
is recent,
continuing.


IPCC 2007
Science Vol I
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Model Forecasts depend on Human
Behavior (Scenarios)


IPCC 2007
Science Vol I

Now appear
conservative


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World-Wide Climate Impacts
! We are seeing bad impacts NOW
! Impacts will get FAR WORSE if we do not act
! No place to hide.
! Increased conflict (wars): National security
! Economic/finance disruption: Breakdown?
! Disasters worse due to Climate Change:
Water shortages, crop failures, intense fires,
droughts, disease increase, flooding, species
extermination, extreme weather, sea level rise,
heat waves, precipitation patterns changed
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What do the data say about SLR?
! Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets,
glaciers and ice-caps faster than expected
! Current sea-level rise underestimated
! Now 80% above past IPCC predictions
! Sea-level predictions revised upwards
! By 2100, twice IPCC AR4 (2007) numbers
" But number only from sea water expansion
" AR4 mentioned glacier add-on, couldnt quantify
! By 2100, may be up to 2 meters (6 feet)
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NOAA data, projections to 2100
depend on human climate action
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SLR and Global Warming
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So What? Vulnerable US (NOAA)
East Coast (NJ !) hot spot for SLR
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U. S. Navy is concerned
! Scenarios SLR: 3 to 6 feet by 2100
! Arctic opening, ice melting new theatre
! National Defense issues
! Quadrennial Defense Review 2010
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Small Island Nations Threatened
(IPCC Extreme Climate report 2011)
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Migration, war, national security
! Millions worldwide will be displaced
! Where will they go?
! Wars result over land conflict
! Pentagon ! US National Security issue
! Quadrennial Defense Review 2010
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Ocean Acidification, Higher
Temperatures, and the Food Chain
! Ocean absorbs emitted CO2
! CO2 + water = carbonic acid in the ocean
! Ocean acidification hurts food chain
! Algae, shellfish, coral reefs
! Higher sea temperature hurts food chain
! Phytoplankton decrease base of food chain
! Substantial part of humanity relies on the
oceans for food.
! Threatened by global warming effects
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What about SANDY in NJ?
! Global warming puts more energy into
the weather system for extreme events
! Specifics making Sandy worse
! Sea level rise. Higher sea temperature
! Arctic T up ! more jet stream instability
! Maybe some influence on Sandy turning left
! Details complicated, and exact attribution
not possible, but probably global warming
made Sandy worse.
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A FEW other impact reports
! Background 1,000 pages: IPCC report, Vol. II (2007)

! Oceans, climate change, and oxygen (2/11/12)
! Global warming could lead to more of the worlds
oceans becoming dead zones [Federal Institute of
Technology, Zurich]

! Los Angeles and SLR (2/23/12)
! Rising sea levels will increase the likelihood of coastal
flooding. Also, rising temperatures will threaten the
snow pack in the Sierra Nevada mountains, which
provides about a third of the drinking water
(US Geological Survey)
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Climate Risk Management
! Recognition of risks: 2 types
! Average risk: probable, low impact
! Tail risk: less probable, high impact
! Rational response to risk - lower it!
! The best way to think about the response
to climate is RISK MANAGEMENT
! Stop BAU = Business As Usual
! If BAU, todays tail climate risk becomes
tomorrows average climate risk
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Climate Mitigation no silver bullet.
Progress exists, and need MORE
! Action by individuals
! Action by organizations
! Corporations, Universities, Faith-based, NGOs
! Action at all levels of government
! City, State, Regional, National, International
! Action to support non-fossil energy
! Stranded assets fear of fossil fuel companies
! Please note: Citizens Climate Lobby
! Carbon Tax + Dividend back to people
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Climate Ethics
! Climate justice: Poor have the smallest
effect on climate are hurt the worst

! However, no place to hide
! U.S. will be hit very hard if BAU prevails

! Intergenerational ethics: Our descendants
! More humane and cheaper for preventive
action now rather than disaster adaptive
action by our descendants in the future
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What do Contrarians / Deniers Say?
! We Have No Climate Risk 4 trenches:
1. Deny global warming
2. Deny human influence on climate
3. Minimize climate impact risk
4. Exaggerate cost of climate action mitigation
! Oppose climate action, renewable energy
! Create doubt = tobacco tactic (Oreskes)
! Science cant prove so we shouldnt act
! Cherry pick, propose flimsy arguments
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Contrarian/Denier Pseudoscience
Disinformation - Example:
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NC Considers Making Sea Level Rise Illegal
! (Reuters) Lawmakers in North
Carolina voted on Tuesday to ignore
studies predicting a rapid rise in sea level
due to climate change and postpone
planning for the consequences.
! Stephen Colbert: North Carolina
considering making sea level rise illegal.
! Cnut the Great tried this 1000 years ago
and failed. NC didnt read their history.
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Who Supports Contrarian Deniers?
! Fossil Fuel Co. FFC Exxon Mobile, Koch
! FFCs want to be able to burn every available
carbon molecule (gas/oil/coal) in the ground
! Otherwise STRANDED ASSETS
! They would reduce FFC $wealth, $stock price
! Libertarians: Tea Party, Koch, Faux News...
! Basically oppose government action
! But governments must act to mitigate climate
! So libertarians try to kill the message
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What are some resources?
! 2012 SLR Symposium by MCCCP
! IPCC Science Report Ch. 5 Oceanic Climate
Change and Sea Level (update AR5, final 2014)
! Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United
States National Climate Assessment
! Skeptical Science website
! UU-UNO Climate Portal
! U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review (2010)
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Bottom Line on Climate:
big problem, we can solve it
! Human activities are causing recent global
warming trend and Sea Level Rise
! SLR is just one consequence
! Climate impacts bad, observed now, will
become far worse if we do not act
! But it is NOT too late to prevent the
worst climate impacts
! We have the technology, we need the will
! You can help
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Thank You
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