China reaches out

September 16, 2014

President Xi of China is scheduled to visit India and
Sri Lana! "he #iddle $in%dom of ancient times is assertin% itself on the
&orld sta%e! "he current leaders of China are driven b' a (manifest destin'),
a strate%ic vie& that China is destined to pla' a dominant role in their
re%ion and the &orld!
*istoricall', from the time of the +mperors, China has considered the rest of
the &orld, includin% its nei%hbours, especiall' those untouched b' Chinese
culture, as inferiors! ,or over 2,000 'ears, &hat is no& called the South
China Sea has been a meetin% point for diverse cultures and for %lobal
trade!
- more historicall' accurate name for that e.panse of ocean &ould be
(#ala' Sea,) since it &as the #ala's of #ala'sia, Indonesia and the
Philippines &ho traversed this stretch of ocean on a re%ular basis! "he
Portu%uese &ere the /rst +uropeans to reach this e.panse of ocean, and
the' ne& it as the Cham Sea, so called after the *indu, #ala'0speain%
mercantile state &hich &as located in a part of toda')s 1ietnam!
"he South China Sea is no&n to the Chinese as the South Sea, to 1ietnam
as the +ast Sea, to the Philippines as the 2est Philippine Sea 3 it lacs a
neutral name4 China toda' is establishin% footholds far from its o&n shores,
in this part of the ocean, to alle%edl' tr' to turn it into a Chinese lae4
China)s claims, &hich e.tend to rocs and shoals located &ithin a fe& miles
from the coast of the Philippines, #ala'sia and Indonesia, are asserted b' a
histor' of alle%ed visits b' Chinese 5eets, &hich i%nores the non0Chinese
people &ho for millennia have been the re%ion)s principle inhabitants!
It is indeed remarable in historical fact, ho& little direct
impact China made in this re%ion! "he visitors from the Indian sub continent
brou%ht the /rst e.traneous cultural &ave into this part of the &orld! "he'
made 6uddhism, *induism and Indian scripts pre0eminent! "raders from the
-rab and Persian marets chasin% the spice trade &ere ne.t, brin%in% Islam!
*ot on their heels, a%%ressivel' tr'in% to dominate the spice trade, came
the +uropeans!
"he Chinese did not pla' a bi% role, other than durin% the earl' #in%
+mperor)s period, &hen -dmiral 7hen% *e too his massive armada 5eets
around the &orld, arrivin% at 8alle in southern Sri Lana and tain% captive
the local satrap and leavin% behind a pla9ue in -rabic, Persian, "amil and
Chinese, to be found in the 8alle #aritime #useum to this da'!
China)s centralised po&er
China)s centralised po&er %oes bac a lon% time! In 221 6C, &hen China
&as /rst uni/ed, in +urope, :ome &as still /%htin% Cartha%e over the
&estern #editerranean! Later :ome collapsed, China too collapsed man'
times, but b' the end of the *an d'nast' in 220 -;, the +mperors had
institutionalised the teachin%s of Confucius, &hich emphasised the value of
social hierarch' and personal moralit', as the basis of %overnment!
6' the "an% d'nast' in the <th centur', China &as one of the most
illustrious and &ealthiest nations! *o&ever, China did not industrialise in
the &a' 2estern nations did! -lthou%h +urope learnt of %un po&der from
China in the #iddle -%es, b' the 1=th centur' +uropeans &ere far more
silled in usin% %un po&der for militar' con9uests than China!
6ritain used force upon China in the 1>?0s, forcin% China to open its doors
to trade and addictive opium from India! In 1>42, 6ritain %rabbed *on%
$on%! In the 1>=0s @apan humiliatin%l' defeated China in battle! "he victor'
of #aoism in 1=4= can be connected to this humiliation, amon% other
factors!
-s a further reaction to this alle%ed international humiliation, China seems
to be emulatin% the polic' laid out b' -merican President @ames #onroe,
the (#onroe ;octrine)! #onroe prescribed a polic' of refusal to countenance
an' interference in the 2estern hemisphere, -merica)s bac&ater, b' an'
+uropean nationA all such inclusions &ould be treated as acts of a%%ression!
Conceptuall' there are similarities bet&een China)s polic' in +ast -sia and
the #onroe doctrine! 2hen President Xi, at his 201? California summit &ith
President Bbama, said that (the vast Paci/c has enou%h space for t&o lar%e
countries lie the Cnited States and China), some anal'sts sa' it &as not
onl' holdin% out the possibilit' of peaceful coe.istence, but also an
assertion of China)s le%itimate interests in the re%ionA interests &hich it has
al&a's had, but not a%%ressivel' promoted, until recentl'!
"here is an as'mmetr'A the CS- has four of its 10 air craft carrier %roups
stationed in the Paci/c, &hile China is still buildin% its /rst one! 6ut the
direction in &hich China is headin% is clearl' indicated!
"here are lina%es bet&een President Xi)s controversial attempts at home
to clamp do&n on corruption and ram throu%h tou%h economic and /nancial
reforms! - forei%n distraction is often useful to distract critics of domestic
polic'! "here are al&a's lina%es in consolidatin% po&er at home and
thro&in% a nation)s &ei%ht around abroad! -n international e9uivalent of
(bread and circuses)4

China spreadin% its in5uence
China is spreadin% its in5uence in a planned and structured manner to all
parts of the %lobe! It is usin% its fast0developin% economic po&er to e.pand
its in5uence in both economic and political terms far be'ond the -sian
re%ion!
-nal'sts claim that in 2011 China &as the &orld)s si.th lar%est international
investor! Sri Lanans are &ell a&are of the stron% in5uence China has over
Sri Lana)s economic development! "hrou%h a mi.ture of %rants, soft and
commercial loans, China is involved in a lar%e number of infrastructure
development proDects in all parts of Sri Lana!
Politicall', too China is assertin% itself! :ecentl' the Chinese -mbassador in
Sri Lana met &ith the leaders of the "amil Eational -lliance shortl' after
the "E- team had returned from India after a series of meetin%s &ith
political leaders and oFcials! "he "E- team has told the ne&spapers that
the meetin% &as at the e.press re9uest of the Chinese -mbassador! "he
"E- stated that the' had covered a lot of %round in discussions &ith the
-mbassador, includin% the visit of the "E- dele%ation to India!
China is e.pandin% its sphere of in5uence in all parts of -sia! "here is an
on%oin% dispute over some roc' outcrops in the South China Sea, the
Scarborou%h Shoals, around the Philippines, 1ietnam, @apan and "ai&an!
"he ro& bet&een @apan and China over /ve islets that lie bet&een them
resurfaced a%ain recentl', &hen the @apanese 8overnment decided to bu'
the three islands it does not alread' o&n from their private o&ner!
China reacted &ith outra%e and sent t&o naval patrol boats to &aters near
to the islets, &hich the @apanese call Senau and the Chinese call ;iao'u!
- Chinese ne&spaper, the 8lobal "imes, recentl' &ent as far as to 9uestion
@apanese soverei%nt' over the prefecture of Bina&a4 "he dispute borders
around both countries) +.clusive +conomic 7ones, in terms of the La& of
the Sea Convention, rati/ed in 1=>2!
Bn the -sian mainland, China is e.tremel' conscious of the potential eGect
the democratisation of #'anmar, promoted b' the -S+-E nations and the
2estern liberal democratic nations, ma' have on the re%ion! Internal unrest
in "ibet, fuelled b' a spate of recent self0immolations, and an on%oin%
dispute &ith India over the Indian state of -runachal Pradesh are also live
international political issues!
"he Indian -rm' is raisin% a number of ne& mountain divisions to station on
the border &ith China and in Ladah! 2012 bein% the H0th anniversar' of
the 1=62 invasion of India b' the People)s Liberation -rm' of China, there is
a resur%ence in India, amon% the media especiall', on the 1=62 episode,
&here the PL- advanced into India, %ave the Indian -rm' a blood' nose and
pulled bac into China!
It is reported that ;en% *siao Pin%, visitin% the Cnited States, had
mentioned to President @imm' Carter that China, &hich &as havin% a border
dispute &ith 1ietnam at that time, &ould teach 1ietnam also a lesson in the
manner China tau%ht India a lesson in 1=62! "rue to form, the PL-
advanced across the China01ietnam border shortl' thereafter! "he battled0
hardened 1ietnamese veterans of the 1ietnam &ar a%ainst the CS put up a
spirited defence, unlie the ill0prepared, ill0e9uipped and badl'0led India
forces in 1=62!
"o the north, &hile relations &ith :ussia seem stable, there is a histor' of
border disputes, &hile &ith #on%olia, China has on%oin% issues over access
to #on%olia)s humon%ous mineral &ealth, &hich Chinese0o&ned, both State
and corporate entities, are e'ein%!
"he freedom of the seas also has become an issue to China, &ith over <0I
of its ra& materials and oil and %as comin% throu%h the southern seas and
the Straits of #alacca! Bne Chinese leader referred to this as (China)s
#alacca ;ilemma)! "he Chinese also have deplo'ed naval assets to assist
the international policin% operation a%ainst Somali pirates oG the coast of
+ast -frica, mainl' in self0interest, to protect its shippin% routes! "he /rst
Chinese aircraft carrier is under%oin% sea trials!
"he Chinese interest in the political unrest in the #aldives Islamic :epublic
is also said to be based on the fear of the possibilit' of Islamic
fundamentalist pirates locatin% themselves on an uninhabited #aldivian
atoll and pre'in% on ships carr'in% ra& material to China across the
southern seas!
China)s demo%raphic shift
In China, toda', non0State o&ned businesses are prosperin%, &hile State0
o&ned enterprises are in retreat! Bver the ne.t fe& 'ears China &ill
under%o a hu%e demo%raphic shift! "he proportion of people over 60 in the
total population &ill increase from 12!HI in 2010 to 20I in 2020! - :eport
b' the Chinese -cadem' of Social Sciences sa's that China)s (demo%raphic
dividend) 3 the availabilit' of lots of 'oun% &orers &hich helped fuel
economic %ro&th 3 &ill soon disappear!
#an' Chinese are no& familiar &ith the concept of the (Le&is turnin% point,)
named after an economist from St! Lucia, in the Caribbean, -rthur Le&is,
&ho said that industrial &a%es &ill start to rise 9uicl' &hen a countr')s
rural labour surplus dries up! -lread' this has been seen in ChinaA
manufacturin% industries are movin% a&a' from the coastal areas, &here
the' &ere /rst promoted, as rural mi%rants no lon%er leave their villa%es
and mi%rate to &or in the s&eat shops on the coast! ,actories are bein%
moved inland, &here labour is more plentiful!
*o&ever, the ne& s'stem, b' &hich farmers are allo&ed to maret their
surplus produce on their o&n, has seem a rise in rural small farm incomes,
and such a%riculturalists are reluctant to &or lon% hours in factories! "he
one child polic' implemented for man' 'ears has resulted in a fast0risin%
population of retired people, &hose pensions &ill have to be paid for b'
ta.es raised from a shrinin% pool of current &orers! "his polic' has no&
been rela.ed!
- bi% increase in the a%e of retirement in China is lon% overdue! "he oFcial
retirement a%e of 60 for men and H0 for &omen &as /.ed in 1=H1, &hen
the avera%e life e.pectanc' in China &as 46, compared to toda')s <?!
"hese are the pressin% economic and social issues facin% China!
6attle lines are clearl' dra&n
7hu ,en%, an international aGairs e.pert at 6eiDin% Cniversit' has saidJ (2e
are the >00 pound %orilla in the room! China is learnin% to be a %reat
po&er!)
"eufel ;re'er, a Professor at the Cniversit' of #iami, sa's, of ChinaJ ("here
is a debate at the top! Some leaders assert that China must assert its
interests in a more strai%htfor&ard &a', to %et its hands on resources it
needs to po&er its econom'! Bthers sa' the countr' must continue to %ive
priorit' to domestic development and solvin% internal social challen%es!)
:ecentl' :ed Princelin% and former Chairman of a State0o&ned compan',
Kin Xiao, no& headin% an independent thin tan 3 the 6o'uan ,oundation
3 made a speech at one of China)s most presti%ious universities, "sin%hua,
accusin% the part' hierarch' of substitutin% the enli%htened values of
democrac', freedom and individual ri%hts, &ith (Chinese) ones such as
stabilit' of the status 9uo and the interests of the State bein% paramount!
Kin founded the 6o'uan ,oundation in 200<, to%ether &ith investment
baner and :ed Princelin% *e ;i, sa'in% that (China needs someone to
stand up and spea)! Kuin in an intervie& &ith a ne&spaper published in
8uan%don% Province, the Southern People)s 2eel', saidJ ("he -rab Sprin%
sho&ed that no matter ho& &ell a countr')s econom' performed, people
&ill not accept dictatorial, corrupt %overnment!) -lso 2an% Chan%Dian, a
scholar at Communist Part')s trainin% academ' for cadres, has pointed out
that there seems to be a phobia a%ainst political reform!
In China the battle lines are clearl' dra&n bet&een the Cniversalists, &ho
believe China must eventuall' conver%e on democratic norms, and the
+.ceptionalists, &ho believe that China must preserve and perfect its
authoritarianism! 2hile Kin and the 6o'uan ,oundation represent the
Cniversalists, 7han% 2ei&ei represents the +.ceptionalists!
7han% recentl' &rote China)s evolution should be (as if the :oman +mpire
had never collapsed and had survived to this da', turnin% itself into a
modern state &ith a central %overnment and modern econom', combinin%
all sorts of traditional cultures into one bod' &ith ever'one speain% Latin!)
"his +.ceptionalist point of vie&, &hich is a con5uence of nationalism,
rapidl'0%ro&in% militar' capabilit' and deepl'0held feelin%s of victimhood
are &orr'in%! *o&ever, Chinese oFcials eep articulatin% the need for a
(harmonious &orld) and decr' the use of militar' force to resolve disputes!
2here &ill China be in 20 'earsL
It is interestin% to see &here China &ill be in t&o decades) time! 2ill the
+.ceptionalists carr' the da' and &ill China end up bein% a seethin% pot of
nationalist hate, bent on tain% reven%e from the &orld, for the past
inDustices imposed on China b' the imperialist po&ersL Br &ill the
Cniversalists &in throu%h and, &ill China end up a rich and aMuent, e.tra
lar%e siNe (XL) Sin%apore Inc!, &ith &arlie intentions onl' bein% manifested
in corporate board roomsL
Eon0Chinese planners proDect that China in 20 'ears &ill be a near peer
po&er, bumpin% up a%ainst the Cnited States of -merica in terms of
economic and militar' capabilit', havin% a%%ressive intentions &ith its
nei%hbours and nation states &hich do not do China)s biddin%, perceived to
be &ithin its le%itimate sphere of in5uence, lie Sri Lana!
6ut chan%e can be diFcult! Consider the events in *on% $on%, &here the
Bccup' Central #ovement is pushin% for China to honour its treat'
commitments to 6ritain, on ;en% *siao Pin%)s (one countr' , t&o s'stems)
and ensure the survival of the democratic attributes of *on% $on%, votin%
throu%h universal franchise for leaders, an independent public service and
Dudiciar', a free press, etc!
:atchetin% up the pro/le of China in the international sphere &ill prove
e9uall' diFcult! ,or e.ample, China has vetoed interventions 2estern
po&ers sou%ht in S'ria and ;arfur, but has not taen a position of Putin)s
antics in the Craine, althou%h China taes a dim vie& of such
centifru%alism &ithin China4
Steerin% China throu%h this maNe of contradictions &ill not be eas'!
President Xi has a challen%in% a%enda before him! Challen%in% nei%hbours
and buildin% alliances &ith friends further a&a' ma' turn out to be a useful
distraction for the Communist Part' cadres!
O"he &riter is a la&'er, &ho has over ?0 'ears of e.perience as a C+B in
both State and private sectors! *e retired from the oFce of Secretar',
#inistr' of ,inance and currentl' is the #ana%in% ;irector of the Sri Lana
6usiness ;evelopment Centre!P
Posted by Thavam