Whom Should MR Fear? US Or China?

| by Upul Joseph Fernando

( September 17, 2014, Colombo, Sri Lana !uardian" #ay ba$ in 1%&', (rime )inister,
Sirima*o +andaranaie, ,as hailed by the China media as the -.n/el o0 (ea$e1 ,hen she
$arried ,ith her a set proposals to pre*ent a possible 2ndo3China ,ar4 #hile in China she
si/ned the maritime a/reement4 5er proposals to pre*ent an 2ndo3China ,ar ,as se*erely
$riti$i6ed by the then 7pposition U8( ,hi$h $laimed the proposals 0a*oured China ,hile it
,as un0air by 2ndia4 9*en the then 7pposition stal,art o0 the )aha:ana 9sath (eramuna
()9(", (hilip !una,ardena ,arned that +andaranaie1s proposals ,ere harm0ul to 2ndo3
Lana relations4
.lle/ations ,ere le*elled that in si/nin/ the maritime a/reement, +andaranaie had se$retly
sold the ;rin$omalee China +ay (ort to China4 ;he U8( used the issue as the main slo/an
a/ainst the +andaranaie !o*ernment at the 1%&< !eneral 9le$tion ,arnin/ the publi$ that
China ,as /oin/ to in*ade Sri Lana4 ;he U8( ,as ele$ted to o00i$e and relations ,ith China
/radually turned sour4 2t ,as alle/ed that China ,as behind a mo*e to topple the U8(
!o*ernment ele$ted to o00i$e in 1%&<4 =umours 0loated that the Chinese 9mbassy in Colombo
had printed lea0lets in China and had /ot them do,n to operate an anti3U8( propa/anda
pro/ramme4 Simultaneously, the Sri Lanan )ission in China $ame under atta$4 2t ,as
reported that the atta$ ,as mounted by the =ed .rmy o0 the Chinese Cultural =e*olution4
China ,as an>ious to brin/ +andaranaie ba$ to po,er in 1%704 ;hat stand ,as pro*ed
beyond doubt as relations ,ith China stabili6ed a/ain a0ter +andaranaie returned to po,er in
that year ,ith a t,o3third ma:ority4 2n 1%71 the J?( insur/en$y broe out, and many nations,
e>$ept China a/reed to assist +andaranaie to @uell the insur/ent uprisin/4 ;he silen$e
maintained by China ,as *ie,ed by +andaranaie ,ith suspi$ion4 ;hat ,as mentioned in the
boo -Forei/n (oli$y o0 Sri Lana1 in the 0ollo,in/ mannerA
;raditional +andaranaie poli$y
B;he traditional +andaranaie (oli$y o0 $lose 0riendship ,ith China ,as resumed ,ith spe$ial
emphasis e>$eptin/ 0or a brie0 interlude durin/ the hei/ht o0 the .pril insurre$tion o0 1%71 in
Sri Lana, ,hen the Chinese $ompli$ity in the insurre$tion ,as suspe$ted4 Suspi$ion o0 a
possible Chinese role in the insur/en$y $entred on a mysterious Chinese ship $arryin/ arms
$onsi/ned to ;an6ania, ,hi$h ,as in the Colombo 5arbour, at the time o0 the $ommen$ement
o0 insur/ent atta$s and ,hen China be$ame the only ma:or po,er, ,hi$h 0ailed to respond to
the Sri Lanan !o*ernment1s appeal 0or military assistan$e, the ship itsel0 sailin/ a,ay ,hile
the appeal to China 0or su$h assistan$e ,as under $onsideration in +ei:in/4
B;he insur/en$y had dra,n its intelle$tual stimulus 0rom a *ariety o0 )ar>ist sour$es, amon/
its ideolo/i$al 0orebears bein/ )ao ;se ;un/, Cim 2l Sun/ and Che !ue*ara4 ;he Sri Lanan
!o*ernment ordered the $losure o0 the 8orth Corean 9mbassy on the /round that some o0 its
a$ti*ities had /i*en stren/th and support to the insurre$tionists, ,hile the erst,hile leader o0
the pro3+ei:in/ Communist (arty ,as taen into $ustody4, )ean,hile, 0our 2ndian 0ri/ates
:oined the Sri Lana patrol boats in a sear$h 0or the mysterious Chinese ship, ,hi$h had
disappeared4 Sino3Sri Lana relations ,ere restored to normal$y only a0ter )s4
+andaranaie broad$ast to the nation, late .pril, that 0orei/n po,ers ,ere not in*ol*ed in the
insur/en$y, and a0ter Chou 9n3Lai himsel0 ,rote to her statin/ that -0riendship bet,een China
and Sri Lana is in the 0undamental interest o0 the t,o peoples and $an stand test1, and that -the
Chinese !o*ernment and people hi/hly treasure the 0riendship bet,een our t,o $ountries14
;he letter also $ommended the Sri Lana !o*ernment in ha*in/ brou/ht under $ontrol a
hand0ul o0 persons ,ho styles themsel*es !ue*arists, and into ,hose rans 0orei/n spies (ha*e"
sneaed4 ;he letter ,as a$$ompanied by an interest 0ree, lon/ term loan o0
=s 1<0 millionD4
+y3/one era episode
;his by3/one era episode stems to mind ,hen one analy6es the present relations bet,een the
=a:apasa !o*ernment and China4 =a:apasas ha*e today established mu$h stron/er lins ,ith
China4 ;his has $aused tension 0or .meri$a and 2ndia4 5en$e, the =a:apasa !o*ernment has a
0ear that .meri$a and 2ndia ,ould attempt to destabili6e the =a:apasa !o*ernment4 2n reality,
the =a:apasa !o*ernment should not 0ear .meri$a nor 2ndia but, China4 ;he Chinese are not
in*estin/ hu/e monies not to ,ash their hands o004 ;hey e>pe$t lon/ term results4 20 the
Chinese 0eel that the =a:apasa !o*ernment is be$omin/ unpopular amon/ the people, they
,ould mediate to support another (arty to $ome to po,er to sa0e/uard their in*estments4 2n
1%71 China abandoned Sirima*o +andaranaie at the hei/ht o0 the J?( insurre$tion thinin/
the insurre$tion ,ould be a su$$ess4 Similarly, i0 China 0oresees the imminent 0all o0 the
=a:apasa !o*ernment, it ,ould rush in to ensure a re/ime $han/e 0a*ourable to them to
pre*ent a pro3.meri$anE2ndian leader $omin/ to po,er in Sri Lana4
;he .meri$ans al,ays ensure ,hen leaders $lose to them in nations ,hi$h ha*e sound
relations ,ere /oin/ to 0all, another ,ho ,ould support them is installed in o00i$e4 ;hat had
been e>perimented in (aistan and (hilippines4 5o,e*er, $han$es o0 China tryin/ to do the
same in Sri Lana, loos to be on $ards4 China ,ho installed Cim Jon/ Fun as the 8orth
Corean leader is no, tryin/ to oust him today4 . media report to that e00e$t statedG
8orth Corean leader
BFor the 8orth Corean leader, this is a di00i$ult time, ;oshimitsu Shi/emura, a (ro0essor at
;oyo1s #aseda Uni*ersity and an authority on 8orth Corean a00airs told H#4 ;imin/ is *ery
important here and it is possible that China is mo*in/ to abandon Cim Jon/3un4;he atmosphere
bet,een the t,o nations is $han/in/4 China may ha*e de$ided that it is time 0or a re/ime
$han/e in the 8orth, they ,ill not permit the $ollapse o0 the $ountry be$ause they do not ,ant
$haos on their o,n borders4
Further e*iden$e that +ei:in/ is slo,ly ti/htenin/ the s$re, on its erst,hile ally $omes as more
state3run 0inan$ial institutions se*er lins ,ith bans in 8orth Corea4 ;he latest institution to
adhere to /o*ernment1s orders to halt transa$tions a$ross the border is the +an o0 China, one
o0 the 0our ma:or bans in the $ountry, ,hi$h announ$ed on 7 )ay that it ,ould $ease dealin/s
,ith the Forei/n ;rade +an o0 8orth Corea, ,hi$h has been identi0ied as bein/ in*ol*ed in
(yon/yan/1s nu$lear and missile pro/rammes4
H# in0ormation
2ntelli/en$e sour$es ha*e passed on to H# in0ormation that +ei:in/ has a $ontin/en$y plan in
pla$e ,hen Cim Jon/3un1s $ontrol o*er the $ountry $rumbles4 ;he reports $on0irm that China is
indeed @uietly en$oura/in/ re/ime $han/e and is /roomin/ Cim1s brother, Cim Jon/ F nam to
tae o*er his role4 .t 42, Cim Jon/3nam is the oldest son o0 Cim Jon/3il, the di$tator ,ho ruled
8orth Corea ,ith an iron 0ist 0or 17 years until his sudden death in He$ember 20114 Cim Jon/
F nam had been e>pe$ted to assume leadership a0ter his 0ather1s death, but 0ell 0rom 0a*our
spe$ta$ularly in 2001 ,hen he ,as detained ,ith t,o ,omen and a boy a/ed 0our at ;oyo1s
8arita 2nternational .irport tra*ellin/ on a 0or/ed Homini$an =epubli$ passport4 5e later
admitted he had ,anted to *isit Hisneyland4 5e subse@uently li*ed in )a$au and +ei:in/,
under the $lose ,at$h o0 the Chinese authorities4 ;he reports said that a0ter Cim Jon/3nam is
installed in (yon/yan/, his brother ,ill be permitted to /o into e>ile, probably in China4 ;he
ta$ti$ is not ,ithout its pit0alls, ho,e*er, in part due to e00i$ien$y o0 the $ampai/n to dei0y their
youn/ leader as the 0uture o0 the nationD4
;he China ba$ed re/ime $han/e plan in 8orth Corea loos an appropriate ,arnin/ to
=a:apasas in Sri Lan