Puerto Rico

THE ISLAND OF CLIMATE

CHANGE
-JUDITH ENCK, RA-EPA, R-2

Dr. Javier E. Laureano
Executive Director
San Juan Bay Estuary Program


Part of the US since 1898-US citizens since 1917-US currency
Island population: 3.7 million (plus 4.6M living in
mainland US), more than:
Wyoming
DC
Vermont
North Dakota
Alaska
South Dakota
Delaware
Montana
Iowa
Connecticut
Oklahoma
Oregon

Rhode Island
Hawaii
Maine
New Hampshire
Idaho
Nebraska
West Virginia
New Mexico
Nevada
Utah
Kansas
Mississippi
Watershed & Water Bodies
LAND USE
Most of the population living in coastal areas-near 1M in the
SJBEs watershed-
National Estuary Program-USEPA
WHAT IS IN PERIL DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?:

The economy of Puerto Rico and the Caribbean region
9.2 million travelers per year/ LMM Airport
1.2 million cruise passengers per year
80% of all imports-Shipping container volume
greater than Hawaii, Guam and Alaska combined.
ECOSYSTEMS THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE?:

Key ecosystems
124 fish species
160 bird species
300 wetland plant species
33% of all remaining mangrove acreage of the Island
Current situation:

STEADY SEA LEVEL RISE FOR 48 YEARS
NOAA-La
Puntilla-San Juan
Metro Area:
Extreme Events: Decadal episodes >78mm/24hrs
(Pablo Mndez-Lzaro, Frank Muller et al.)
Current situation:

CONSTANT FLOODS OF STORMWATER COMBINED WITH RAW SEWAGE
Martn Pea Channel: 27,000 persons living in poverty
constantly flooded with raw sewage-public health crisis-
Current situation:

SEVERE COASTAL EROSION
2007
2010
2014
PUBLIC HEALTH CONCERNS:

Dengue, Asthma, Chikungunya


What are we doing?:

RED MANGROVE PLANTING
(Ecosystem-based adaptation)
Restoring the shoreline
Community-
based
2007-2008
2011-2012
2014
Citizen Science:
Living lab for
students
Citizen Science:
Living lab for
students
What are we doing?:

IMPROVING THE SYSTEMS RESILIENCE THROUGH INVASIVE SPECIES
REMOVAL FROM WETLANDS
Promoting healthy wetlands through invasive
species management: Melaleuca quinquenervia
Melaleuca stand
N
0.05 km
Melaleuca
quinquenervia
removal
Melaleuca
quinquenervia
removal
WHAT ARE WE DOING?:

Creating the conditions to recruit new corals
(Environmental enhancement)


245 structures- 800lbs each-
Deployment
Deployment
Underwater trail
creation
90% increase in
fish population
2,500 new coral
colonies
What are we doing?:

EDUCATING THE PUBLIC THROUGH PUBLIC SERVICE CAMPAIGNS,
WORKSHOPS AND PUBLICATIONS
Sierra Clubs Cool Cities Campaign: Global
Change Solutions for Puerto Rico
Over 1,000 mayors of the US and PR have signed an
agreement to reduce energy consumption
The agreement:
What are we doing?:

We are conducting the first lagoons water level monitoring with the USGS
San Jos Lagoon-San Juan 50049800 (USGS)

Partnerships
USEPA-Climate Ready Estuaries-
USGS
NOAA
USFW
Enlace Latino the Accin Climtica (ELAC)
University of Puerto Rico
University of the Sacred Heart
University of South Florida
Department of Environmental and Natural Resources
Caribbean Coastal and Ocean Observing System
Puerto Rico Climate Change Council
Sierra Club-Cool Cities


Become our next partner!
Some areas where we need funding and alliances:

Adaptation planning
Public health studies and prevention methods
Protection of key infrastructure
Beach nourishment
Disasters and flood prevention
Coastal erosion
Dunes protection
Invasive species removal and management
Relocation of families and citizens
Education and communication efforts
Wetlands protection and enhancement
Resiliency Funding










THE STATE OF THE PUERTO RICO CLIMATE: 2014





Assessing socio-ecological vulnerabilities in a changing climate


pr-ccc.org
Geophysical
and Chemical
Scientific
Knowledge
Ecology and
Biodiversity

Communicating
Climate Change
and Coastal
Hazards
Society and
Economy
PRCCC
Working Groups
Population and Economy
Emerged land area: 3,508 mi (9,497 km
2
)
Territorial waters: 9 mn (10.35 mi)
Population: 3.7 millon (29
th
U.S.)
Coastal Population: 2.7 million (70%)
Urban areas/coastal zone: 40%
Urban/coastline ratio: 24%

GNP: $67 billion/yr (2013)
Manufacture: 45.5%
Finances, Insurance and Real Estate: 19%
Services: 12.8% (Tourism: 8%)
Government: 9.7%
Commerce: 7.8%
Transportation and Services: 3.2%
Construction: 1.9%
Agriculture: 0.7

Eleven ports

Eight airports

Six Power Plants

1,080 miles of sanitary infrastructure

13 waste water treatment plants

81 industrial parks

114 miles of primary roads

Critical Infrastructure / Coastal Zone (1 Km)


The WMO report (2014) confirmed that 2013 tied with
2007 as the sixth warmest on record:

The extreme events of 2013 were consistent with what
we would expect as a result of human-induced
climate change.

We saw heavier precipitation, more intense heat,
and more damage from storm surges and coastal
flooding as a result of sea level rise - as Typhoon
Haiyan so tragically demonstrated in the Philippines,

WMO Secretary-General, Mr. Michel Jarraud
Hayhoe et al, 2012
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Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
(CariCOOS)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5 SLOPE= 0.023
0
C.y
-1
(+/- 0.002)
R=0.30 N=1513 P <0.0001
N
E

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a
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b
b
e
a
n

S
S
T

a
n
o
m
a
l
y

(
0
C
)
SST data from CaTS. The slope or SST trend between 1993 and
2007 was linearly estimated at 0.026 (+/-.01) degrees Celcius/yr
SLR Projections, Planning and Design
considerations for Puerto Rico
1. PRCCC Analysis Conducted by USACE , Jacksonville District
2. Section 22 Agreement has been formailized by DNER-USACE

by 2060: 0.07 to 0.57 m above
current mean sea level

by 2110: 0.14 and 1.70 m
above current mean sea level
Ernesto L. Daz
2013

Storm Surge Modeling in Puerto Rico in Support of Emergency Response,
Risk Assessment, Coastal Planning and Climate Change Analysis

More intense?
More frequent?
HURRICANES
Presidential Disaster Declarations (1989-2014)

Are climate changes natural or human induced?

Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends
over the past century are very likely due to human activities,
1
and most of the
leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements
endorsing this position.
http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus




WE MUST ADAPT !



HOTELS FLOOD ZONE
Puerto Ricos Adaptation Strategies
- Island-wide, municipal and community-
based adaptation - risk reduction plans
- Integrate climate scientific knowledge to
plan new cities and towns
- Adaptive design of new infrastructure
- Planned retreat
- Ecosystem based Adaptation
- Beneficial uses of dredged materials
- Sustainable beach nourishment
- Secure financing to protect, adapt,
relocate and/or retrofit critical
infrastructure




DECREASING VULNERABILITY TO
CLIMATE CHANGE:

Cecilio Ortiz, PhD
University of
Puerto Rico
A transdisciplinary platform for sustainable governance
CREPR: Energy Regulatory Commission
DT: Department of Labor
DA: Department of Agriculture
DT: Department of Transportation
PRIDCO: PR Industrial Development Corporation
DV: Department of Housing
JCA: Environmental Quality Board
DS: Department of Health


THREE FUNCTIONS OF THE ENVIRONMENT


Living Space
Waste
Repository
Supply Depot


VULNERABILITY AND RISK TWO
ESSENTIAL CONCEPTS
Vulnerability group of characteristics of a person or a
group that influence in his/her capacity to anticipate, cope
and recuperate without external aid from the impact of a
extreme natural event.

Risk probability that the personal characteristics
associated to vulnerability and generated by economic,
political, and cultural conditions coincide in time and space
with an extreme natural event.
THE CONFLICT OF SUSTAINABILITY
A political system that guarantees its citizens the oportunity to
participate effectively in decision-making processes.
An economic system that is capable to generate sustained surplus and
technical knowledge.
A social system that provides solutions to the social tensions
consequence of the disonant development.
A production system that respects the obligation to preserve the
ecological base of development.
A Technological system that can search for new solutions continuously.
An international system that promotes sustainable paterns of comerce
and finances.
An flexible administrative system that has the capacity to auto-correct.
SUSTAINABILITY IS
(World Commission in Environment and Development, 1987a: 65)