A Monaragala problem for the Rajapakse

Regime
by Harim Peiris
- on 09/29/2014
pe!"lation mo"nts not j"st in politi!al
!ir!les b"t also in !i#il so!iety of an impen$ing presi$ential ele!tion% early in
the &e' (ear) *he +#a Pro#in!ial ,o"n!il ele!tions% 'hi!h besi$es being
!onstit"tionally re-"ire$% 'ere also a testing of the politi!al 'aters by the
Rajapakse A$ministration an$ the res"lts !o"l$ not ha#e been more
$ist"rbing to those in the !orri$ors of po'er)
&o' the Rajapakse presi$en!y has a reele!tion strategy that has been born
of ne!essity% 'hi!h is 'inning the presi$ential ele!tions 'ith almost solely
the inhala #ote) .#en a !"rsory glan!e at the 200/ an$ the 2010
presi$ential ele!tion res"lts 'o"l$ $emonstrate that Presi$ent Mahin$a
Rajapakse $oes not re!ei#e the #otes of either the M"slim or the *amil
!omm"nities) .#en Minister *hon$aman0s ability to $eli#er the estate *amil
#ote is hampere$% by the Presi$ent0s la!k of appeal to ethni! an$ religio"s
minorities) 1or instan!e in the 2010 presi$ential ele!tions in 'hi!h he
se!"re$ a near /23 national #ote% he lost in the m"lti ethni! &"'ara .liya 4
Maskeliya ele!torate se!"ring only 543 of the #ote an$ !on!e$ing a h"ge
603 #ote share to 7eneral arath 1onseka) As the Rajapakse presi$en!y0s
in ho"se think tanks ha#e !on!l"$e$% !orre!tly% the Rajapakse bran$
attra!tion is limite$ to its !ore !onstit"en!y of the ethni! inhala ele!torate%
both 8"$$hist an$ ,atholi!) *he ,atholi! #ote in ri 9anka% !"rrently is
splitting along ethni! lines% 'ith *amil ,atholi!s% 'hose #ie's are essentially
arti!"late$ by Mannar 8ishop Rayapp" :oseph% #oting *&A an$ s"pporting
minority rights% 'hile Mal!om ,ar$inal Ranjith% no' ai$e$ by an impen$ing
Papal #isit% keeps inhala ,atholi!s ;rmly 'ithin the orbit of a inhala
nationalist A$ministration)
A!!or$ingly an "npre!e$ente$ Rajapakse thir$ term reele!tion plan re-"ires
a prepon$eran!e of the inhala #ote% or abo"t 6/3 or t'o thir$s of the
inhala #ote% 'hi!h is abo"t </3 of the total ele!torate to s-"ee=e o"t a
#i!tory) Hen!e in 200/% Presi$ent Rajapakse 'o"l$ not ha#e 'on e>!ept for
the fa!t that the 9**. enfor!e$ a boy!ott of the ele!tion by #oters in :a?na
an$ the 9**. !ontrolle$ @anni) *his time aro"n$ the *&A $oes not nee$ to
say #ery m"!h to see *amils #oting -"ite hea#ily against the Rajapakse
A$ministration)
An 2010% in the aftermath of 'inning the 'ar% Presi$ent Rajapakse ha$ no
tro"ble se!"ring the inhala #ote base$ on the 'ar #i!tory% b"t e#en as
Presi$ent Rajapakse !on!e$e$ as far ba!k as 2009% on!e the 'ar is o#er%
people 'ill look at e!onomi! $e#elopment in ret"rn for their politi!al
s"pport) At is essentially in the area of e!onomi! management an$
go#ernan!e that the Rajapakse A$ministration ;n$s itself losing gro"n$
among inhala !onstit"en!y) An interesting poll by o!ial An$i!ator in the
$ays pre!e$ing the +#a pro#in!ial polls state$ that more than half the
people in$i!ate$ that they 'ere 'orse o? no' e!onomi!ally than they 'ere
t'o years ago% not'ithstan$ing the rose tinte$ reports of a politi!i=e$
,entral 8ank an$ ,hinese f"n$e$ large s!ale infrastr"!t"re proje!ts 'ith
little lo!al employment opport"nities% 'ith most of the 'ork being also $one
by ,hinese labo"r)
A 'orry for the Rajapakse A$ministration sho"l$ be its performan!e in the
Monaragala Bistri!t) *he Monaragala $istri!t is the most mono ethni!ally
inhala $istri!t in the !o"ntry) Monaragala is more inhala than e#en the
Presi$ent0s o'n !onstit"en!y of Hambanthota an$ more inhala than :a?na
is *amil) An re!ent past ele!tions% the +P1A se!tore$ h"ge majorities in
Monaragala% polling 213% </3 an$ 693 respe!ti#ely at the 2009 pro#in!ial
an$ the 2010 general an$ presi$ential ele!tions) &o' Monaragala is a
reasonable pro>y for the inhala #ote% gi#en that it is essentially a mono
ethni!ally inhala $istri!t) 8"t at the re!ent +#a pro#in!ial poll% the +P1A
se!"re$ only /23 of the #ote in Monaragala) 8asi!ally /23 of the inhala
#ote 'o"l$ not be s"C!ient in a national ele!tion 'hen the minorities also
!ome o"t an$ #ote% as they $i$ in 8a$"lla an$ the +P1A an$ that too after
thro'ing e#erything they ha$ into the e?ort% something that 'o"l$ not be
possible on that s!ale at a national ele!tion) At 'as -"ite a ;ght% literally)
Here is ho' the "n$ay *imes politi!al !ol"mn of "n$ay 22th eptember%
$es!ribes the Rajapakse e?ort that fell far short of 'hat 'as re-"ire$)
9a'lessness reigne$ in the r"n-"p to the eptember 20 polls) Antimi$ation
an$ th"ggery 'ere rampant) *he Poli!e 'ere blin$ to ne' Befen$er :eeps
sans n"mber plates !logging the o"tba!k of 8a$"lla an$ Monaragala
Bistri!ts) +ni$enti;e$ b"t 'ell-b"ilt men 'ere !an#assing in $i?erent 'ays
for the r"ling party !an$i$ates) @ario"s forms of in$"!ements 'ere o?ere$)
A @AP $istrib"te$ en#elopes 'ith money amo"nting to bet'een Rs
2%/00 an$ Rs /%000) Dpposition party s"pporters feare$ to 'alk
into a Poli!e tation) An one instan!e on polls $ay% the Mayor of
8an$ara'ela 'as assa"lte$ insi$e the Poli!e tation by three
7o#ernment politi!ians) *he DC!er-in-,harge of this hea$-"arters
station 'as transferre$ for failing to pre#ent the in!i$ent) Ho'e#er%
no a!tion so far seems to ha#e been taken on the assailants) Polls
la's 'ere #iolate$ 'ith imp"nity) *he Polls an$ Poli!e ,hiefs 'ere
b"!k-passing !omplaints from those 'ho so"ght a free an$ fair
poll)E
Af Presi$ent Rajapakse se!"res anything less than t'o thir$s F2/5G of the
inhala ele!torate an$ ass"ming the minorities !ome o"t an$ #ote% the
"npre!e$ente$ thir$ Rajapakse term may be ele!torally -"ite $iC!"lt) *he
opposition has the moment"m !oming o"t of the +#a ele!tion) 8"t they
still nee$ to !reate a broa$ opposition front an$ a minim"m !ommon
opposition program for a !ommon opposition !an$i$ate to take on Presi$ent
Rajapakse) *he presi$ent 'ill still 'in reele!tion if the opposition is $i#i$e$%
'ith a serio"s three or fo"r person ra!e) An the +#a ele!tion% the +P1A Hag
!arrier 'as a presi$ential nephe'% 'hile at a presi$ential ele!tion it 'ill be
the presi$ent himself) *he @enerable obitha *hera has $one a lot of the
gro"n$ 'ork for a !ommon opposition front% if the +&P has the politi!al
imagination to see it an$ more importantly the reali=ation that it re-"ires a
broa$ front to 'in the ele!tions) 9et0s not forget the fa!t% the +&P $i$ 'ell in
+#a% b"t it still $i$ not 'in% the +P1A $i$) Iitho"t a broa$ opposition front%
that is still the most likely s!enario in a presi$ential ele!tion as 'ell)
Posted by Thavam