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4: QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Unit – 1
Basic Mathematical concepts : Nature of quantitative analysis in
the practice of management – problem definition – Models and their
development – Concept of trade off – Notion of constants – Variables and
function – Linear and Non-linear – Simple examples.
1
Unit – 6
Introduction to Decision Theory: Pay-off and Loss tables –
Expected value of pay-off – Expected value of perfect Formation – Decision
Tree approach to choose optimal course of action – Criteria for decision – Mini-
max, Maxi-max, Minimising Maximal Regret and their applications.
2
LESSON 1
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING FOR MANAGEMENT DECISION
MAKING
3
1.3 MANAGEMENT CONCERNS
There are different alternatives to reach the goals set. The right
alternative has to be chosen. Thus a decision-making situation evolves. This
situation can be handled qualitatively as well as quantitatively.
4
approach is scientific. It is open book. It can be tested for efficiency and
improved upon.
7
return from Government bonds, lease rentals, etc., can be done with 100 per cent
attitude, while that of equity investments cannot be made accurately.
8
relevant today as a business needs to adapt on a continuous basis in this dynamic
world.
11
An internal rate of return (IRR) model is given by: -I + CFt/(1+k)t = 0, where
`k' is the IRR to be found, while `I' is the initial investment, CFt refers to
periodic cash flows. To construct a mathematical model objective of the firm,
variables, constants and constraints must be known, besides the relationship
amongst the variables. The relationship may be linear or non-linear. The EOQ
and linear programming models given above are linear relationship based, while
the IRR model is non-linear relationship based as it in exponential form.
While variables can take any value, we may give them particular
values and `freeze' them in a given context.
Real variables are variable that enter the solution set and exist
there. Artificial variables are mathematical artifice and are involved to find a
solution, but cannot be part of the solution.
Integer variables can take only whole number values while non-
integer variables can take any value. Number of chairs/ships produced cannot
13
take fractional value, but amount of time, consumed can take fractional
days/hours.
Here, total cost varies as `Q' changes. The fixed cost in total is a
constant and the unit variable cost is also a constant. But, these constants are not
universal constants. For the time being these are constants. Fixed cost may
14
change as rent, administrative and depreciation change and unit variable cost
will change if costs of direct material and labour change. Thus there are two
constants. Universal constants and temporal constants.
1.7 TRADE-OFF
In Risk-Return trade-off, risk is traded off for return. High risk and
high return and low risk and low return are the order. But a business man wants
15
high return with low risk. How is it possible? Impossible the businessman opts
for certain level of risk and tries to maximise return for that level of risk or
targets a return and attempts to minimize risk as far as possible for that level of
return. This process is called risk-return trade-off.
B C
Total
Risk direct
Cost
A D
16
trade-off. When that level of return is reached, the choice of risk-return
combination is made.
Questions
1. Present the application of quantitative analysis in the practice of
management.
3. What do you mean by decision model? Explain the types of models and
their info needs.
17
LESSON 2
MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
Let the total cost (C) function of a firm per day is associated with
daily output Q; C = 1500 + 80Q. The firm has a capacity limit of 100 units of
output per day. Then the domain of the function is the set of values: 0 = < Q = <
100. The range is lowest at 1500 when Q = 0 and highest at 9500 when Q = 100;
or 1500 = < C = < 9500.
By placing the domain on the x-axis and the range on the y-axis,
we get the function in the form of a two-dimensional graph in which the
association between x values and y values is specified by a set of ordered pairs
such as, (x1, y1), (x2, y2) ... (xn, yn).
C = 1500 when Q = 0 and is 9500 when Q = 100, or 1500 = < C = <
9500.
18
2.2 DIFFERENT FUNCTIONS AND THEIR GRAPHIC EXPRESSIONS
2.2.1 Constant Function takes only one value as its range. y = f(x) = 7; or y = 7;
or f(x) = 7. Regardless the value of x, value of y = 7. Value of y is, perhaps
exogenously determined. Such a function, in the coordinate plane, will appear as
a horizontal straight line. Graph 2.1 gives the constant function.
Graph 2.1
y7
y = f(x) = 7
x
2.2.2 Polynomial Function is a multi-term function. The general form of a
single variable, x, polynomial function is: y = a0x0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + a3x3 + .... anxn.
Each form contains a coefficient as well as a non-negative integer power of
variables. [The first two terms can be written as a0 + a1x, since, x0 = 1 and x1 is
commonly written as x].
Graphs 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4, respectively give the linear, quadratic and
cubic functions:
ao ao ao
x x x
ao = Y – intercept ao = Y – Intercept ao = Y – Intercept
a1 = Slope
x−5
Y= ,
x + 2 x + 20
2
20
A special relational function that has quite an interesting
application in business is the function: y = a/x or xy = a. This function plots as a
rectangular hyperbola (Graph 2.5).
Graph 2.5
Y = a/x or XY = a
a>0
Since the product of the two terms is always a given constant, this
function may be used to represent average fixed cost curve, a special demand
curve where total expenditure (i.e., price x quantity) is always the same.
21
Graph 2.6 Graph 2.7
Y = bx y = x log b
Y Y
b>1
o x x
Y = a + bx1 + cx2.
22
2.2.5.1 Concept of slope of a line
(i) Slope is the tangent of the angle made by the line with the x-
axis when we move anti clockwise from the x-axis to the line. If θ is the angle
that the line makes with the positive direction of x-axis, than slope of the line =
tangent = opposite side/Adjacent side. See the graphs 2.8(i), 2.8(ii).
θ
θ
23
(v) Slope is also studied by amount of change in y, ∆y divided by
amount of change in x, ∆x. Slope = ∆y/ ∆x.
Illustrations:
1) Suppose three lines make each an angle of i) 30 , ii) 45 and 60 with the
positive direction of x-axis. Then the slope of the lines are:
i) tan 30° = 1/√3 ii) tan 45 = 1; tan 60°= √3
3) A machine costs Rs. 1,00,000. 5 years after, its value falls to Rs. 60000. If
value is a linear function of time, find the depreciation function.
Solution: Let the value of the machine at year `t' be: v = a + bt. Put
v = 1,00,000 at t = 0 and v = 60000 at t = 5. We get the following two equations:
24
Slope is a highly relevant concept in our analysis, slope measures
the rate of change in the dependent variable for a unit change in the independent
variable. This is given by the tangent of the curve at a point.
Opposite Side ∆Y
Tangent A = =
Adjacent side ∆X
In graph 2.8 (iii) the slope is presented. Slope = ∆Y/∆X
Y ∆y
∆x
Total Maximum
X : 2 3 5 8 12 30 6
Y : 2300 2700 3500 4700 6300 17500 39500
X–X: -4 -3 -1 2 6 0-
Y–Y: -1600 -1200 -400 800 2400 0 -
XY : 6400 3600 400 1600 14400 26400 -
X2 : 16 9 1 4 36 66 -
25
The regression of X on Y: Y = a + bX
The value of `b' = Σxy / Σx2 = 26400/66 = 400. This is the slope of the
curve.
a = Y – bX = 3900 - 400(6) = 1500
This pattern also depicts a straight line, but its Y intercept is zero.
In other words, the line passes through the origin. Graph 2.9 (ii) gives an account
of the same.
8000 400
6000 300
cost
4000 200
2000 100
1500
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 1 2 3 4 5
Quantity
26
2.2.5.3 Linear Demand Function and Slope thereof
Suppose the quantity demanded and price are linearly related and
the demand function is as follows:
Unit price P: 4 5 6 7 8
Quantity Q 1400 1200 1000 800 600
Illustration :
First the regression model is attempted.
Total Mean
P: 4 5 6 7 8 30 6
Q: 1400 1200 1000 800 600 5000 1000
P-P=p: -2 -1 0 1 2 0 -
Q-Q=q 400 200 0 -200 -400 0 -
pq -800 -200 0 -200 -800 -2000 -
p2 4 1 0 1 4 10 -
Graph 2.10
Dividend curve and slope
Quantity
1800
1200
600 ∆Q
∆P
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Price
The slope = Change in Q / Change in P
= ∆Q / ∆P
Unit price ; P : 1 2 3 4 5
Quantity : Q : 600 800 1000 1200 1400
We can show that the slope is positive and is equal to 200. The
equation can be worked out as before.
P – P =p -2 -1 0 1 2 0
Q–Q=q -400 -200 0 200 400 0
pq 800 200 0 200 800 2000
2
p 4 1 0 1 4 10
28
Let the equation be: Q = a + bp
b = slope = Σpq / Σp2 = 2000 / 10 = 200
a = Q – bp = 1000 – 200(3) = 400
The regression equation : Q = 400 + 200p
Graph 2.11 gives the curve
The slope = ∆Q / ∆P = 200
Graph 2.11
Supply curve and slope
1400
1000
800
∆Q
400
∆P
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Price
Graph 2.12
Bi-variate linear functions
50
40
30
B
20
10
0 10 20 30 40 50
A
In the graph 2.12, `A' is taken on x-axis and `B' is taken on y-axis.
The line joining 40 units of A and 50 units of B, represents combinations of A
and B yielding a total contribution of Rs. 4000. Similarly the line joining 20
units of A and 25 units of B represents combinations of A and B yielding a total
contribution of Rs. 2000. All lines parallel to these lines represent combinations
of A and B giving certain levels of total contribution. For higher total
contribution the curve shall be farther from origin and vice versa.
30
Suppose there are `n' independent variables. The general order of
linear equation here is: Y = a0 + a1X1 + a2X2 + a3X3 + .... + anXn, where X1
... Xn are independent variables and a0, a1, .... an are constants or coefficients.
x
2.2.6.1 Quadratic Function
Let the demand for a product be given by the quadratic function: Q
= P2 - 7P + 10, where P is price.
We can get the graph plotted by first mapping the function in the
form of a table as below. As P cannot take negative value, we take it as zero first
and allow it to rise a unit at every step and relevant Q values got thus:
P: 0 1 2 3 4 5
Q: 10 4 7 12 19 28
31
Graph 2.14
Quadratic Function
2
Q = P + 7P + 10
28
21
14
7
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Price
Graph 2.14 depicts the function Q = P2 - 7P + 10. The curve does
not conform to normal demand curve, generally speaking. Perhaps this is vanity
demand curve. A quadratic function is different from a quadratic equation. A
quadratic equation results, when a quadratic function is set to zero. That is, the
quadratic function, P2 - 7P + 10 if made as equal to zero, i.e., P2 - 7P + 10 = 0, a
quadratic equation results. For the quadratic equation the roots can be worked
out.
We can plot the curve by assigning values to `P' and getting those
of TR. The same is tabled below:
32
Graph 2.15
Cubic function
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-10 Price
33
Let the cost curve and revenue curve be 500 + 13Q + 2Q2 and
2
125Q - 2Q .
The cost curve can be derived as follows:
Q 0 5 10 15 20
TC: 500 615 830 1145 1560
The revenue curve can be derived as follows:
Q: 0 5 10 15 20
TR: 0 575 1050 1425 1700
Graphs 2.16 and 1.17 depict the cost and revenue curves:
Graph 2.16
Cost curve Graph 2.17
2000 Revenue curve
1500 1800
The slope of the curves are not same at all points. For different
1000 1200
500 600
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
The slope of the curves are not same at all points. For different
magnitude of `Q', different slope levels exist.
The first derivative of cost function w.r.t. Q gives the slope. It is:
13 + 4Q. So, slope for different `Q' values are as tabled below, obtained by
putting the value of Q in the above slope function:
Q: 0 5 10 15 20
Slope: 13 33 53 73 93
(13 + 4Q)
34
The first derivative of revenue function w.r.t. Q gives its slope. It
is: 125 + 4Q. So, slope for diff. `Q' values are as tabled below:
Q: 0 5 10 15 20
Slope: 125 105 85 65 45
(125 + 4Q)
The slope of the profit curve: i.e. first order derivative with respect
to e = dE/dQ of – 4Q2 + 112Q – 500 = -8Q + 112. At Q = 0, 5, 10, 15 and 20 the
slope is: 112, 72, 32, -8 and -48. Graphs 2.18 gives the total profit and marginal
profit curves.
When marginal profit (i.e., slope of total profit), reaches zero, total
profit is maximum. The quantity at this level of profit is profit maximizing
quantity. From the graph 2.18 we read it as 14 units, the same as we got earlier
algebraically.
35
Graph 2.18
400
300 Peak
100 5 10 15 20
0 Marginal
-100 profit
(Rate of change
-200 in profit)
-300
-400
-500
36
2.3.1 Price elasticity of demand
-∆Q/Q
= , Where Q – is the quantity, P – is the price and ∆Q and
∆P/P
∆P are the changes in Q & P
-∆Q P P -∆Q
= x = x
Q ∆P Q ∆P
37
Graph 2.19
Demand curve
210 E = 0.333
Quantity
140 e<1 E=1
70 e>1 E=3
0 10 20 30 Price
P : 10 20 30
Corresponding Q : 210 140 70
Slope : -7 -7 -7
Elasticity: -(P/Q) *(Slope) : 0.333 1 3
Total revenue(PxQ) : 2100 2800 2100
38
The price elasticity is > 1, beyond the price level of Rs.20. So, any
price rise from Rs.20 will have the seller with low sales. But price reduction to
Rs.20 from higher price level will benefit him. The price elasticity is <1, below
the price level of Rs.20. So, any price reduction from Rs.20 will not benefit the
seller, but any price rise, movement in price towards the unit elasticity point
from any previous position of elasticity pays off well the seller.
You can notice the use of slope in computing price elasticity. Price
elasticity is simply slope times P/Q. you can also note, given the slope price
elasticity is directly proportional to price and inversely proportional to quantity.
∆Q Q ∆Q I I ∆Q
Income Elasticity = = × = ×
∆I I Q ∆I Q ∆I
39
The ratio of rate of change in quantity demanded of a product to
the rate of change in price of a related product;
If X any Y are complementary goods [that is, use of one needs use
of the other too, like car and car insurance], when the price of Y rises demand
for X falls and vice-versa.
∆Q x Q X Py ∆Q x
Cross Elasticity = = ×
∆Py Py Qx ∆Py
Look at the graph 2.20 given below for the function P = f(Q)
40
Graph 2.20
Profit function : P=f(Q)
11
10 P
P 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Q
Find the ‘Q’ for which profit is maximum and the‘Q’ for which
profit is minimum?
41
Solution
Q3
Profit = −4Q 2 +12Q
3
dP
=Q 2 −8Q +12 =0
dQ
i.e.,(Q - 2) (Q - 6) =0
i.e.,Q =2 or Q = 2
6
of Q + 8Q + 12 = 2Q - 8
d2P
d Q2
d2P
If we put Q =2, =2(2) −8 = 4 - 8 =-4. Since, the value <0, Profit is maximum
d Q2
23 8 2
at Q =2. And the profit = − 4( 2) 2 + 12( 2) = − 16 + 24 = 10 .
3 3 3
d2P
If we put Q = 6, = 2(6) − 8 = 12 - 8 = 4. Since, the value > 0, Profit is minimum
d Q2
63
at Q = 6. And the profit = − 4(6) 2 + 12(6) = 72 − 144 + 72 = 0.
3
42
We can get ordered pair points for profit for the different ‘Q’ levels as below:
Q : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Profit = P : 0 9 10.67 9 5.331.67 0 2.33
Questions
1. Give the concept and the types of functions. Illustrate with graphs.
43
12. A survey shows that there is a linear function between population of a city
and time. In 1986 the population was 68 lakhs, and in 2000 its population
was 75 lakhs. Estimate the population of city in 2005 and in 2010.
(Answer: P = 68 + 0.56T)
13. Find the average rate of change in the supply function, Q = 3p - 4 over the
interval p[1,5]. (answer 3).
14. A trader earns Rs. 380 when price = Re 1 per unit, Rs. 660 when price =
Rs. 2 per unit, Rs. 860 when price = Rs. 3 per unit. On plotting the points
(1,380), (2,660) and (3,860) he finds that a quadratic equation may fit the
data. Construct the quadratic equation and estimate his earnings for price
= Rs. 4 per unit. [Hint: Construct 3 set of equations find the coefficients
of a, b and c. Earnings at p = 4 = Rs. 980].
15. The total profits of a firm is given by: -2x2 + 400x - 1700, where x =
number of units sold. Find the maximum profit giving sales volume and
profit per unit at that level. (answer: 100 and 183).
16. Cost of production is given by: x2 - 120x + 15000, where x is the units
produced. Find the cost minimizing volume and cost per unit at that level.
18. Find the maxima and minima of the function: x3/3 - 4x2 + 12x.
19. The demand function of a product is: p = 100 - 0.5q2. If price p = 10, find
the elasticity of demand. (Answer: 0.05).
20. The demand function is: q = 100 - 2p. Find income elasticity of demand
between p = Rs. 25 and Rs. 36.
44
LESSON 3
COST-VOLUME-PROFIT RELATIONSHIP
Cost, volume and profit are interrelated. Cost refers to the money
value of material, human and other resources expended in the production of a
product or rendering a service. Cost of production depends on the volume of
production. Cost of production is proportionately, linearly or curvi-linearly
related to volume. Hence study of the pattern of cost-volume relationship
assumes importance. Profit refers to the excess of revenue over expenses. Profit
is a function of volume, cost and price. If the term volume is taken to mean sales
revenue, then profit is influenced by volume and cost. Further as cost itself is
influenced by volume a direct relationship between volume and profit could be
thought. In this lesson varied aspects of the cost-volume profit relationship are
analyzed.
Graph 3.1 : Total Variable Cost Graph 3.2 : Total Fixed Cost
Cost Cost
TVC
TFC
Output Output
46
Graph 3.3 : Total Cost Graph 3.4 : Average Fixed Cost
TC
Cost
TVC
TFC
Output
Production function varies with time. There are short run and long run
production functions.
47
3.2.1 Short-run Production Function
From the table it is found that TP is rising till the 9th unit of labour
is added, remains stable between 9th & 10th units of labour and falls when 11th
unit of labour is added. That is, MP is positive till 9th unit, zero at 10th unit and
turns negative at 11th unit of labour onwards. When MP is at its peak, 11 when 3
units of labour are employed, AP is at its peak too. TP is highest when MP = 0.
TP rises as long as MP > 0, remains constant at previous level when MP = 0,
falls when MP < 0.
48
stage, i.e., MP < 0, is negative returns stage as far as the factor of production that
is being varied.
Graph 3.5 : TP, AP, MP
TP
Output
Output
AP
Units of varying
Input, i.e., labour MP
49
Graph 3.5, in two periods, gives a vivid picture of the three stages. When
MP falls below AP, inflexion takes place in TP, marking the end of stage I.
When MP = 0, TP is maximum, marking the end of stage II.
3.2.2 Cost of Operation: Relation between cost and activities in the short
run
So far we studied the behaviour of output with respect to input in
physical units. If the physical units of inputs are converted into cost, the
behaviour of cost and output.
50
Graph 3.6 : Quadratic Cost Function
TC
TVC
Cost (Rs)
TFC
Output
MC ATC
AVC
Cost (Rs)
AFC
Output
Marginal Cost (MC) is the rate of change in total cost for a unit
change in output. So, MC is measured through the slope of TC. The slope of TC
51
is different at different points. Since, TC and TVC are similar in pattern, MC is
also measured through the slope of TVC. This is so, because TFC is constant.
Also, using differential calculus, MC can be studied. This we did in Lesson 2.
Solution :
45 = a + 10b -------------- (1)
53 = a + 12b -------------- (2)
(1)-(2), -8 = 0 - 2b
or, b = 4.
Putting b = 4, we get a = 5.
So, Q = 5 + 4L
52
3.3.2 Quadratic Relationship: Illustration: 2
53
At the maxima, MP should be higher. And it is: 18 + 9(6) - (6x6) =
18 + 54 - 36 = 36. At the minima MP should not be higher than the above figure
of 36. Could be less or equal. And it is: 18 + 9(3) - 3x3 = 18 + 27 - 9 = 36. It is
equal here.
54
Q = A Lb K1-b , (so, b + 1-b=1), where,
Q = output, A = a constant, L = Labour, K = Capital and b =
Power, a parameter. Actually, the `b' and `1-b', gives the factor-wise shares in
total output.
MP of Labour = b(Q/L) and
MP of Capital = 1-b(Q/K)
Q * = A (λ L)b (λ K)1-b
= A λb Lb λ1-b K1-b
= A λb+1-b Lb K1-b
= λ1 A Lb K1-b
= λ(Q)
55
d) Marginal Product of L and K
MPL = dQ/dL
= α d.AL α-1 Kβ
= α (AL α Kβ).L-1
= α (Q)L-1
= α (Q/L)
= α (APL), APL (average product w.r.t labour)
similarly, MPK = β(Q/K) or β.APK
e) Value of α & β
%changeinoutput
EQ =
%changeinaninput
∆Q
Q ∆Q L
EQ = = .
∆L ∆L Q
L
∆Q Q
= ÷ = MPL ÷ APL = α
∆L L
56
3.4.2 Fixed Proportion or Leon tiff Production Function
3.5.1 Isoquants
57
Graph 3.7 : ISO quantity
C
A
P
I K1 300 units
T
A K2 200 units
L 100 units
L1 L2
Labour
58
Graph 3.8 : ISO cost lines
C
A
P
I
T
A
L
Labour
The line C = 300 indicates several combinations of K and L,
having same total cost of Rs. 300. Similarly, C = 400 indicates, combinations of
K & L having same total cost of Rs. 400.
C
A
P E
I
T K
A
L 400 Units
600
500
400
O L
Labour
59
First the isoquant of a particular level of output is drawn. Then
isocost lines for different cost levels are drawn. The isocost line that is tangential
to the isoquant gives the minimum cost level for a given output. The isocost =
Rs. 500 is tangential to isoquant at point E. OK level of capital and OL level of
labour will be used producing 400 units of output at a total cost of Rs. 500.
400
300
200
100
K * E
O L
Here, given the isoquant line, C = Rs. 500, we should reach the
highest possible isoquant. Draw isoquants. That isoquant, that is farthest from
origin, `O', and tangential to the isocost line gives, the maximum output level
given the cost.
SRTC
LRTC
C T
O
S
T
TPC
O Q1 Q2
Output or Activity
61
in the long run no fixed cost is involved and cost minimizing opportunities
abound.
3.6.2. Short-run average cost (SAC) and Long-run average cost (LAC)
Graph 3.12 gives the SACs and LAC.
C SAC1 SAC7
O SAC2 SAC6
S SAC3 SAC5
T SAC4 LAC
Output or activity
3.6.3 Short-run Marginal Cost (SMC) and Long run Marginal Cost
62
Graph 3.13 gives the SMC curves and LMC curve
SMC1 LMC
SAC1
SAC4
SMC2 SAC2 SMC4
SMC3 SAC3
LAC
Illustration 5
Suppose for 100 units of output the total cost is Rs.1,02,000 while
for 120 units the total cost is Rs.1,18,000. If linear cost model exists, get the
parameters of the model.
63
Solution:
Given a + b(100) = Rs.1,02,000 …. (1)
a + b(120) = Rs.1,18,000 …. (2)
TC TC
C
O
S
T
FC
FC
Activity Activity
64
In the case of 3.14 model, AC falls at a smaller rate with rising
output, while in 3.15, average cost falls at a higher rate with rising output.
Illustration 6:
You are given two total cost functions namely :
i) TC = 10000 + 500Q + 0.3 Q2 and
ii) TC = 10000 + 500Q – 0.3 Q2
Computer, MC, AC, ∆MC and ∆AC at Q = 100.
Solution
i) First case: TC : 10000 + 500Q + 0.3Q2
MC = dTC/dQ = 500 + 0.6Q
At Q = 100, MC = 500 + 60 = 560
∆MC = dMC/dQ = 0.6
AC = TC/Q = 10000/Q + 500 + 0.3Q
At Q = 100. AC = 100 + 500 + 30 = 630
∆AC = dAC/dQ = 10000 / Q2 + 3
= -1 + 0.3 = -0.7
65
3.7.3 Cubic TC Relationship
Suppose the cost function is of the cubic type. The general model
is: TC = a + bQ - cQ2 + dQ3. Graph 3.6 gives a model of the cubic total cost
function.
Illustration 7
Let total cost be: TC = 10000 + 500Q – 0.3Q2 + 0.01Q3
Compute TC, AC, MC, ∆AC and ∆MC for output = 100.
Solution:
TC = 10000 + 500x100 – 0.3(100x100) + 0.01 (100x100x100)
= 10000 + 50000 – 3000 + 10000 = 67000
We can also find the maximum total cost and minimum total cost
output levels.
66
Illustration 8
Let `p' be price per unit and `x' be units. A firm's price function is:
P = 300 - 4x and its cost function is: TC = 500 + 28x. Find profit maximizing
output.
Solution:
The total revenue function is: P*(x) = (300 – 4x) x
= 300x – 4x2
π = Profit = Total Revenue - Total Cost
= (300x – 4x2) – (500 – 28X)
= 4x2 + 272x – 500
Here in this section marginal cost, fixed cost, total cost, absorption
cost, etc. are dealt.
Marginal Cost
Marginal cost is the change in aggregate costs when output is
changed by a unit. Total cost is the sum of total fixed cost plus the total variable
cost.
67
The costing terminology defines marginal cost as ‘the amount at
any given volume of output by which the aggregate costs are changed if the
volume of output is changed by one unit and it is measured by the total of
variable cost’. Analyzing this definition, one can find that with the increase in
one unit of output the total cost is increased and this increase in total cost from
the existing level to the new level in known as marginal cost. For example if a
company produces 100 units at a total cost of Rs.10,000 and if the production is
increased by 1 more unit, say the total cost is increased to Rs.10,080. The
increase of Rs.80 is the marginal cost at that level of output.
The later part of the definition says that marginal cost is measured
by the total of variable cost. Variable cost is always equal to prime cost plus
variable overheads hence marginal cost is also known as variable cost. If in the
above example, if the variable cost per unit is Rs.80 and fixed cost for the period
Rs.2000, the total cost will be as follows for 100 units:
If the output is increased by one more unit to 101 units the following emerge:
Variable cost for 101 units @ Rs.80 = 8.080
Fixed cost = 2,000
Total cost Rs. = 10,080
The difference in the total cost as well as in total variable cost when the
production is increased by one more unit is Rs.80 which is the marginal cost.
ii) As viewed by the economists, marginal cost curve would fall in the
beginning and rise rapidly afterwards as the Marginal cost curve will
be always saucer shaped. As per the Accountant’s view, the marginal
cost curve would be a horizontal straight line as the Marginal cost i.e.
variable cost per unit is assumed to be constant.
If one analyze the above two definitions, are can find out:
i) Marginal costing is neither a method nor a system, but it is only a technique
i.e. a technique of a decision making.
iii) Through the ascertainment of marginal cost, we can find out the effect on
profit due to changes in the volume or type of output.
69
iv) The ascertainment of marginal cost requires differentiating between fixed
and variable costs.
v) The variable costs are charged to cost units as they only are the product
cost, and
vi) The fixed cost, being the period cost should be written off in full against the
contribution for that period. Contribution refers to the difference between
sales and the variable cost of sales. It can be presented as: Sales – Variable
cost = Contribution. Contribution – Fixed cost = Profit.
ii) Fixed cost: Fixed cost is that cost which, in aggregate, tends to be
unaffected by variations in the volume of output. The amount of fixed cost tends
to remain constant for all volumes of production within the installed capacity of
the plant. For example, salary to Manager, Rent for factory etc. shall remain the
same even if production goes up or comes down in a period. It is to be
remembered that this distinction of variable or fixed cost is made in the short run
only. In the log run all costs are variable.
iii) Semi – Variable or Semi – Fixed cost: This is a cost partly fixed and
partly variable. It has the characteristics of both the fixed and variable cost. This
cost varies with production, but not in the same proportion. E.g. Maintenance of
70
plant cost, telephone charge, etc., In fact most of the overhead cost will be in the
nature of semi-variable cost only.
Variable expenses per machine hour = ∆cost / ∆Hrs = 1200 / 800 = Rs.1.50
Substituting the variable cost in the high or low activity, we can get the fixed
cost: High 2,000 Machine hours @ Rs.1.50 = 3,000; Fixed cost Rs.6,000 (i.e.,
9000-3000).
Low 1,200 Machine hours ~ Rs.1.50 = 1,800; Fixed cost Rs. 6,000 (i.e., 7800-
1800).
With this information one can project the estimated cost for the
future period. For example, if the estimated machine hours in the future is 3,000
hours, then,
71
This method presumes that the variable portion of the semi-
variable cost has linear relationship i.e. variable cost per unit is assumed to be
constant. This may not be true always.
b) Scatter graph
This method is also known as regression line or the line of best fit.
The cost at all lends are plotted in a graph; for example, the machine hours at
different levels or periods are plotted in the ‘X’ axis and the semi-variable cost
in the ‘Y’ axis. After plotting all the points, a straight line is drawn through the
points plotted in such a way that equal distance is maintained as far as possible
from these points with almost equal number of points on each side. The point in
the ‘Y’ axis where the straight line intersects determines the fixed portion of the
cost”.
(Rs.)
72
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
ΣY = Na + bΣX …. (1)
ΣXY = aΣX + bΣX2 …. (2)
73
Solving the equations for a & b will get us to find the fixed cost
and variable cost.
Let x be the hrs and y be the amount. The figures are taken here is Rs.100
omitting the two zeros.
S.No. X Y XY X2
1 40 56 2240 1600 N=6
2 30 52 1560 900 ΣX = 280
3 20 48 960 400 ΣY = 352
4 60 64 3840 3600 ΣXY = 17360
5 50 60 3000 2500 ΣX2 = 15400
6 80 72 5760 6400
Total 280 352 17360 15400
74
3.9.5 Marginal cost vs. Absorption cost
3) Carrying forward of the cost of one period to another as above distorts the
results of both the years, vitiating the very purpose of costing and
financial reporting.
75
3.9 RELEVANT COSTS FOR DECISION MAKING
There are different cost concepts but all are not relevant in all decision
situations. Table I gives pairs of relevant and irrelevant costs for decision
making.
TABLE I : Relevant and Irrelevant Costs
Variable cost changes with the level and mode of operation. It may
vary in linear or non-linear proportion. The management has to decide the
particular level of operation or mix of products where there is cost advantage. In
77
quoting special prices to special consumers and in fixing minimum prices for
products, variable cost is an essential factor. Thus it is relevant to managerial
decision making. On the contrary, fixed cost, for the total cost is not affected by
fixed cost. However, in the long run all costs are variable and long run decisions
are taken without highlighting the variability of costs with volume.
78
3.10.6 Out-of-pocket vs. Imputed Cost
Fixed cost F F
or = = or
Variable cost 1-V/S P/V ratio
1–
Sales
Break-even point (in units ) = Total Fixed cost / Contribution per unit
81
Illustration 9
Calculate Break-even sales from the following figures.
Sales Rs. 1,50,000
Fixed cost Rs. 37,500
Direct Material Rs. 50,000
Direct Labour Rs. 30,000
Direct Expenses Rs. 20,000
Solution
Break-even sales = F*S / S-V
37,500 X 1,50,000
= = Rs. 1,12,500
1,50,000 – 1,00,000
Verification
B.E Sales = 1,12,500
Less V.C at that level 75,000
Contribution 37,500
Less: Fixed cost 37,500
Profit Nil
Contribution C
i) P/V Ratio = x 100 = x 100
Sales S
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Change in Contribution ∆C
P/V Ratio = x 100 = x 100
Change in Sales ∆S
If selling price, variable cost and fixed cost are constant, then
Change in Profit ∆P
P/V Ratio = x 100 = x 100
Change in Sales ∆S
Fixed cost
v) Sales at Break-even profit =
P/V ratio
3.11.3 Properties of P/V Ratio:
83
v) Sales = (F+P) / P/V, Where P is desired profit
vi) Helps to determine the profitability of products/product mix.
Illustration 10: A factory produces 600 units per month. Selling price is Rs.240
per unit; variable cost is Rs.160 per unit. Fixed cost per month is Rs.16,000.
i) Calculate the estimated profit in a month wherein 480 units are produced and
ii) find out the sales to make a profit of Rs.14,000 per month.
Solution:
Selling price per unit = Rs.240
Variable cost per unit = Rs.160
Contribution unit = Rs. 80
84
3.11.5 Margin of Safety
Or
Properties
i) Margin of safety indicates the strength of business.
ii) High margin indicates that concern would make profits even if there
should be a fall in production or sales.
iii) Low margin of safety indicates high fixed cost and profits cannot be
made unless volume of sales is increased or selling price is raised or
costs reduced or a more profitable product is substituted.
Illustration 11
M.Ltd manufactures one uniform product X. The following figures
are available for two successive years.
Year I Year II
Rs. Rs.
Sales 1,00,000 1,20,000
Fixed cost 30,000 40,000
Variable cost 50,000 65,000
The directors want information about the BEP, P/V ratio and margin of safety.
85
Solution:
I Year: Sales Rs. 1,00,000
Less: Variable cost Rs. 50,000
Contribution 50,000
Fixed cost 30,000
Profit 20,000
C 50,000
P/V ratio = x 100 = x 100 = 50%
S 1,00,000
40,000
= x 100 = 40%
1,00,000
86
FxS 40,000 x 1,20,000
B.E. Sales = = = Rs.87,273
C 55,000
32,727
M.S ratio = x 100 = 27.27%
1,20,000
Illustration 12
MV Ltd. a multi product company furnishes you the following data
relating to the year 2001.
Solution
i) P/V ratio
Sales Total Cost Profit
Rs. Rs. Rs.
Second half year 50,000 43,000 7,000
First half year 45,000 40,000 5,000
Differences 5,000 3,000 2,000
Difference in Profit
P/V ratio = x 100
Difference in Sales
87
2,000
= x 100 = 40%
5,000
iii) BE Sales
= Rs.65,000
Illustration 13
Two business units X Ltd. and Y ltd. sell the same type of product
in the same type of market. Their budgeted profit and loss accounts for the
coming year are as follows:
X Ltd. Y Ltd.
Rs. Rs.
Sales 1,50,000 1,50,000
Less: Variable costs 1,20,000 1,00,000
Fixed cost 15,000 1,35,000 35,000 1,35,000
15,000 15,000
88
You are required to:
Solution
FC + Profit
a) i) P/V ratio = x 100
Sales
15,000 + 15,000
For X Ltd. = x 100 = 20%
1,50,000
35,000 + 15,000
For Y Ltd. = x 100 = 33 1/3%
1,50,000
FC
ii) Break-even sales =
PV Ratio
89
iii) Sales required to make a profit of Rs.5,000
iv) In conditions of heavy demand a concern with larger P/V ratio can
earn greater profit because of greater contribution. Thus Y Ltd. is
likely to earn greater profit.
90
cost line because it starts form the point where the variable cost is zero and
certain fixed cost has been incurred. Thereafter the sales revenue are plotted
from the origin and a line is drawn up which goes in the upward direction with
the increase in production/sales. The two lines – total cost line and total sales
line shall intersect each other at one point and a perpendicular can be drawn
from this point to find out the level of output where the business is at no profit
no loss position, called break even sales. Sales below this point will result in loss
and above this point will produce profit.
Illustration 14:
From the following data compute the break-even point by a break-
even chart.
Solution
91
C 6000 TR
O TC
S 5000
T Q
/ 4000
R
E
V 2000
E TFC
N
U
E 0 200 400 500 1000
Units
i) Fixed cost remain constant at all levels and they do not vary with the
production.
ii) Variable cost varies in the same proportion and in the same direction.
iii) All costs are capable of being bifurcated into fixed and variable
elements.
iv) Selling price remains constant at all levels of production and sales
v) Cost and revenue depend only on volume and not on any other factor.
vi) Production and sales figures are identical
vii) Either only one product is produced or the product mix is constant.
92
ii) Profitability of the product can be known
iii) Effect of changes in cost and selling price can be demonstrated
iv) Through budget break even chart, planning and control of cost is
possible.
v) Economy and efficiency in operation can be achieved.
Questions
1) Explain different costs of operating a system.
93
4) Graph the behaviour of TC, TFC, TVC, AC, AFC and AVC.
13) Total cost function is: TC = x2 - 120x + 15000. Find the MC and cost
minimizing total output.
14) Comment on the behaviour of cost of the two functions: C1 = -x2 + 60x +
6000 and C2 = x2 - 60x + 6000.
15) The profit function is as follows: P = -2x2 + 400x - 1700, where profit =
P, and x = units of input. Find the profit maximizing output level.
16) The cost function for a firm producing x units is: TC = 5x + 350 and its
revenue function is: TR = 5x - x2. Find the demand function, break-even-
point, profit maximizing output and sales maximizing output. [Hint: i) For
break-even point, solve for x, by equating TC = TR].
94
17) A review, made by the top management of Sweat and Struggle Ltd. which
makes only one product, of the result of the first quarter of the year
revealed the following:
Sales in unit 10,000
Loss in Rs. 10,000
Fixed cost (for the year Rs.1,20,000) in Rs.30,000
Variable cost per unit in Rs. 8
The finance manger, who feels perturbed suggests, that the company should
atleast break even in the second quarter with a drive for increases sales.
Towards this, the company should introduce a better packing which will
increase the cost by Rs.0.50 per unit.
The sales manager has an alternate proposal. For the second quarter
additional sales promotion expenses can be increased to the extent of
Rs.5,000 and a profit of Rs.5,000 can be aimed at the period with increased
sales.
18) Details about the single product marketed by a company are as under:
Per unit Rs.
Selling price 100
Directory material 60
Direct labour 10
Variable overheads 10
No. of units sold in the year 5035. Pursuant to an agreement reached with
the Employees union there would be next year a 10% increase in wages,
across the board for all those directly engaged in production.
Work out:
95
i) How many more unit have to be sold next year to maintain the same
quantum of profit.
ii) In else, by what percentage the selling price has to be raised to maintain
the same P/V ratio.
19) Ram Dass Pvt. Ltd. Nasik is currently operating at 80 per cent capacity.
The profit and loss account shows the following:
Rupees in lakhs
Sales 640
Cost of sales :
Direct materials 200
Direct Expenses 80
Variable Overheads 40
Fixed Overheads 260
580
60
The managing Director has been discussing an offer from Middle East of a
quantity which will require 50 percent capacity of the factory. The price is
10 percent less than the current price in the local market. Order cannot be
split. You are asked by him to find out the most profitable alternative. The
factory can be augmented by 10 percent adding facilities at an increase of
Rs.40 lakhs in fixed cost.
96
LESSON – 4
LINEAR PROGRAMMING
97
4.2 USES OF LP TECHNIQUE IN DECISION MAKING AND
CONTROL
98
viii) In farm management to decide the acreage under each crop to
maximize return given the return per acre for each crop and
constraints as to amount available for land preparation and the total
acreage.
We can go on giving examples like the above. But this is not the
intention. You should note whenever a gain is to be maximized or an outgo is to
be minimized and there are many linear constraints, LP technique can be used.
Illustration 1:
Consider this. A firm makes a contribution to Rs.10 and Rs.12
from the two products A and B, respectively, it manufactures. One unit of A
requires 2 units of raw material-I and 3 units of material-II, and one unit of B
needs 1 unit of material I and 4 units of material II. The firm has 60 units of
material I and 120 units of material II. Find the optimum number of units of A
and B.
99
B requires 1 unit of material I. We have 60 units of material I and decide to
produce ‘a’ units of A. So, 2a units of material I are required for production of
the given level of product A; and the number of units of material I required to
produce ‘b; units of B is 1b. Total of 2a + 1b should be equal to or less than the
total of material I available, viz. 60 units. That is, 2a+b<60. Similarly for
material II, 3a+4b<120. The symbol, < means “equal to or less than”. Further the
number of units of A and ‘B’ cannot be less than zero. In other words, a and b,
can be equal to or more than zero. This we write as a, b>0.
The last one is referred to as the non-negativity condition, since it stresses that
the variable, a and b, cannot take negative values. Items (1) and (2) as well as (3)
are not equations form. The R.H.S. is not equal to L.H.S. Hence these are not
equations or otherwise put these are inequalities. So far the terminologies are
explained.
Illustration 2:
100
Solution:
Illustration 3 :
Solution:
101
Since the grinding and assembling hours have to be at least 7.5
hours and 80 hours, 30m + 30n be ‘equal to or more than 15 hours or 900
minutes and 24m + 4bn be equal to or more than 8 hours or 480 minutes.
Illustration 4 :
Take another example. Old hens cost Rs.2 each. Young ones cost
Rs.5 each. The old lays 3 eggs a week and the young 5 a week. Each egg is
worth a 30 paise of Re.0.3, Re.1 is needed to feed a hen a week. If Rs.80 are
available and not more than 20 hens be maintained at a time, find the optimal
mix of old and young hens.
So, net earnings per week = 0.3 (3a+5b) – (a+b). So our objective function is:
Maximize: 0.3(3a+5b) – (a+b) = 0.9a + 1.5b – a – b = 0.5b – 0.1a
Subject to: 2a + 5b < 80
(the purchase cost be equal to or less than Rs.80)
: a+b < 20
(number of hens at any time be restricted to 20 or less)
: a, b > 0 (non-negativity condition).
102
Illustration 5 : Maximization problem through graphic solution
To solve that problem, first the inequalities are, for the time being,
taken as equalities. That is,
2a + b < 60, becomes 2a + b = 60 and
3a + 4b < 120, becomes 3a + 4b = 120
On the X-axis product `A' and on the Y-axis product `B' are taken.
Say, all the available material I is used to produce product A only. Then 60/2 =
30 units of A can be produced. If all of material I is used to produce B, 60/1 = 60
units of B can be produced. We obtain a straight line connecting these two
points: 30 on X-axis and 60 on Y-axis. This line represents,
2a + b = 60.
The solution to the problem lies at the corner points of the bounded
area, viz., O, P and R. Point `O' represents nil production of both A & B. Well
that is also a feasible solution as it satisfies all the constraints. But the
contribution is zero. Point P means a production of 30 units of A and no unit of
B. The contribution is 10 x 30 + 12 x 0 = 300. Point R represents 30 units of B
103
GRAPH 4.1
60 Maximization
50
B 40 2a+b = 60
30 R
20 Q
10 3a+4b = 120
0 10 20 30 P 40 50 60
So, the solution lies in the area outside the bounded area of the two
lines on the graph, 4.2. In other words, the area lying beyond PQR (the shaded
area) contains all feasible solutions. As we want to minimize cost, and also
satisfy the inequality constraints, we would get the solution if we solve for P, Q
and R. Corner `P' satisfies all constraints, i.e., assembling time is 480 mts., and
grinding time well over 450 mts. Here the production cost is Rs. 48 x 90 units of
N = Rs. 4320. If we consider corner R, representing 30 units of M, the cost
would be Rs. 30 x 60 = Rs. 1800. This point also satisfies all constraints. Point Q
is solved by solving the two equations.
105
GRAPH 4.2 : MINIMISATION
800
48 P
Less
30 N
20
10
M R
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
106
Simplex method is an interactive (repeat) procedure which either
solves a LPP in a finite number of steps or gives an indication that there is an
unbounded solution to the given LPP. Here we use some terms like slack
variable or slack resource, artificial variable or resource basic feasible
solution, improvement index, optimal column, intersectional elements, etc.
These will be explained as we take up solutions to LPPs.
Illustration: 7
We may now take the illustration 1 we discussed earlier for
adopting the simplex method. You may recollect that the:
Solution:
To adopt the simple x method, the inequalities (1) and (2) have to
be converted into equalities by introducing slack variables. You may note that in
2a + b < 60, the LHS is less than the RHS.
To equate the LHS to RHS, on the lower side we add few quantity,
which we call as slack resource. This may be referred to by S1, S2, ... Sn. So the
inequality (1) is converted into an equality as follows: 2a + b + S1 = 60. The S1
simply tells the unutilized material 1. If all 60 units of I are used S1 will be zero.
If some units are left S1 will be a positive quantity. Whether S1 is zero or some
positive quantity, the equation 2a + b + S1 = 60 will hold good. Similarly the
inequality 3a + 4b < 120 is converted into an equation, 3a + 4b + S2 = 120, S2
being the slack variable, whose value would be zero or more than zero. In other
words, the non-negativity condition would cover both real and slack variables.
While products A and B would give us profits, unutilized material I, i.e., the
107
slack resource S1 and utilized material II, i.e., the slack resource S2 would not
give any. So, the return from S1 and S2 is zero, each.
Equations (1) and (2) are modified in such a way that both contains
the other slack variable also. The coefficient of the `other slack variable' would
be put as zero. This means `other slack variable' is included only to satisfy some
structural requirements, but no value is attached.
So we get, 2a + b + S1 + 0S2 = 60
3a + 4b + 0S1 + S2 = 120
108
Explanation of the Table :
Cj row gives the contribution per unit for the real and slack
variables. Variables row gives the variables - real and slack. Cj column gives
contribution per unit for those variable found in the product mix column.
Product mix column gives the products (real and in slack variables) that enter
into the solution. Quantity column gives the quantity produced for each of the
product found in the product-mix column, Zj row gives the loss that would be
incurred if one unit of each of the variables in the variables row is produced.
From Cj if we deduct Zj - the net loss / net gain that would be incurred by
producing unit each of the variables is obtained.
Now coming to the table, Cj row gives the contribution per unit for
a, b, S1, S2 which are Rs. 10, Rs. 12, Rs. 0 and Rs. 0 respectively. The variables
row gives the variables a & b (real) and S1 and S2 (slack).
The variable with the lowest (or lower) I.I will be removed from
the product and mix the variable of the optimum column be introduced in the
110
product-mix. In this case `b' will be introduced and S2 will be removed. The S2
row is called leaving or replaced row. Now the simplex tableau-2 may be
worked out.
(Optimum column)
111
Value of the Corresponding Inter-sectional
Variable of value of the element of the
the row in – variable of the X row in the old
the previous replacing row tableau
tableau in new tableau
= 60 - (30 X 1) = 30
Similarly value:
for `a' = 2 - (3/4 X 1) = 5/4
for `b' = 1 - (1 X 1) = 0
for `S1' = 1 - (0 X 1) = 1
for `S2' = 0 - (1/4 X 1) = -1/4
These, 30, 5/4, 0, 1 and -1/4 are written in S1 row of the tableau 2.
Now the Zj and Cj-Zj are worked out in the usual way. In the Cj-Zj row, we find
that only one positive value in the `a' column is found. That is the optimal
solution is not still achieved. So we have to continue our iteration. The optimum
column is `a' column now. Therefore in the next solution tableau variable `a' will
enter the product mix. To find which of the existing items in the product-mix
will have to be removed, we calculate I.I values for tableau 2. The intersectional
elements are: 3/4 and 5/4, which are bracketed for easy identification.
The lower of the two I.I values is 24 and it is learnt that S1 will
have to be removed. So in the tableau 3, given below `a' variable enters as the
entering or replacing row. Of course `b' row is also there as it is retained.
112
Simplex tableau 3: Third solution
Cj Product Quantity Cj Row: 10 12 0 0
Column mix
Variable Row: a b S1 S2
10 a 24 1 0 4/5 -1/5
12 b 12 0 1 -3/5 8/20
Zj 384 10 12 4/5 14/5
Cj-Zj -- 0 0 -4/5 -14/5
The values for row `a' are obtained by dividing S2 row figures of
the previous tableau by the intersectional element of that row. The `a' row is the
entering row. The `b' row figures in tableau 3 are obtained in the same way as
we obtained the values for S1 row of tableau 2. Zj and Cj-Zj are obtained as
usual. Since all values in the Cj-Zj are either zero or negative, no more further
improvement is possible. In other words, the optimal solution is reached. So, we
produce 24 units of A and 12 units of B and we get Rs. 384 as contribution. For
all these you may refer to the product mix and quantity columns. You may
further note, the same results had been obtained under our graphical solution to
the above problem.
Illustration 8
We may take up the following example.
Objective function : Minimize: 60P + 120Q
subject to : 2P + 3Q >10
P + 4Q > 12
P, Q > 0
Solution :
The inequalities have to be converted into equations. The LHS is
greater. So we subtract slack variables. We get:
2P + 3Q - S1 = 10
P + 4Q - S2 = 12
113
If P and Q were to be equal to Zero, then, S1 = -10 and S2 = -12.
But this will not be permitted by the non-negativity condition which stress that
no variable can take negative value. So, the above equations have to be
modified. We introduce artificial resources called A1, A2, ... An. The artificial
variable (resource) is one which is of very high cost, taken as, great M, and is a
substitute for the various resources. If we add these A's to LHS, we can get over
the problem of not fulfilling non-negativity condition. We thus get:
2P + 3Q - S1 + A1 = 10
P + 4Q - S2 + A2 = 12
Optimum column
114
In the case of minimization problem the column with the highest
negative Cj-Zj value is taken as the optimum column. (You may remember in
the case of maximization problem the optimum column is given by the highest
positive Cj-Zj value). Variable `Q' has the highest negative value with 120-7 M.
This enters into solution. The intersectional elements are: for A1 row, it is 3 and
for A2 row, it is 4. The respective I.I values are: 10/3 and 12/4 or 3. The lower of
these is 3. So in our next solution A2 is replaced by Q. Simplex tableau 2 is
given below: `Q' row figures in tableau 2 are obtained by dividing outgoing A2
row figures by the intersectional element: 12/4 = 3, 1/4, 4/4 = 1. 0, -1/4, 0 and ¼.
Simplex Tableau – 2
OPTIMUM COLUMN
115
The optimum column is the `P' column with highest Cj-Zj for
value of 30 - 5/4M. The I.I value for Q row: 3 / (1/4) = 12 and for A1 row = 1 /
(5/4) or 4/5. 4/5 is the lower of the two. So, A1 is replaced by P. The next
solution is found in tableau 3. `P' row figures are obtained by dividing outgoing
A1 row figures by its intersectional element. The figures are: 1 / (5/4) = 4/5,
(5/4) / (5/4) = 1, 0, -1 / (5/4) = -4/5, (3/4)/(5/4) = 3/5, 1/(5/4) = 4/5 and (- 3/4) /
5/4 = -3/5
Simplex Tableau – 3
Cj Mix Qty 60 120 0 0 M M
P Q S1 S2 A1 A2
60 P 4/5 1 0 -4/5 3/5 4/5 -3/5
120 Q 14/5 0 1 1/5 -2/5 -1/5 2/5
Zj 384 60 120 -24 -12 24 12
Cj-Zj - 0 0 24 12 M-24 M-12
In the Cj-Zj row all values are non-negative. M being very high
figure M-24 and M-12 are all positive which you should note. Since no value is
negative in the Cj-Mj row the optimum solution is reached.
116
4.6 DUALITY
Every linear programming problem has two sides: the primal and
the dual. That is, in maximization problem there is a minimization problem and
vice versa. The LPP as given taken as the primal. Its other side, is the dual.
So for a maximization problem. maximization is primal and its minimization is
its dual. You can solve the primal thro' its dual. From primal, the dual's answers
can be obtained and from the dual solution, the solution to its primal can be
obtained. So why do you present the dual at all? the answer is: firstly a problem
can be easily solved by its dual than thro' the primal. The primal may have more
constraints, whereas its dual may not. Then solving the dual and finding answers
to the primal thro' the dual is good and easy. The opposite situation will prevail
if the dual has many constraints.
117
Minimize 60P + 120Q
Subject to: 2P + 3Q >= 10
P + 4Q >= 12
P, Q >= 0
This we have solved in our illustration 8.
So, illustration 8 is the dual of illustration 7.
I mentioned that from the primal you can solve for the dual. Take
our primal-maximization done earlier. As per its dual, the minimum acceptable
price for a unit each of material I and material II are needed. Look at the
maximization tableau 3 in Illustration 7. Under S1 and S2 columns, in the Cj-Zj
row we find values -4/5 and -14/5. Just convert the negative signs into +ve signs
and the values are 4/5 and 14/5. Now look at the minimization tableau 3 in
Illustration 8 under quantity column. Against P there is 4/5 and against Q there is
14/5. Thus Rs. 4/5 is the value of a unit of material I and 14/5 is the value of
material II.
Now all the constraints are of the "equal to or less than" form. That is:
-2A - 4B < - 100 - (4)
2A + 4B < 100 - (5)
5A + 4B < 160 - (6)
If we take (4), (5) and (6) as different resources with unit value of
Rs. P , Q and R respectively, the dual (minimization) can be written as follows:
Note that when the constraints of the primal are "Equal to or less
than type", those of the dual are "equal to or more than type" and vice versa. Of
course non-negativity condition is always of the "equal to or greater than type".
Illustration 10:
Graphic Method
First convert the inequalities into equalities as below :
4B + 3T = 96 (cutting equation)
4B + 5T = 120 (finishing equation)
120
So, optimum production is 15 book cases and 12 tables gives a total yield of
Rs.1500.
32 Graph 3
30
T
A
B
L 24
E
20
R
20
0 10 20 24 30 X
O
Simplex Solution
121
Initial Solution : Tableau 1
Cj Column Product Quantity Cj value: 60 50 0 0 Improvement
Mix Column Index I I
Cj row : B T S1 S2
O S1 96 (4) 3 1 0 96/4 = 24
Optimum column
The optimum column is ‘B’ (i.e. book cases) and that it enters into
production. So it will be the first now in Tableau – 2. Since, improvement index
is low for S1, S1 will be replaced by B in tableau – 2.
0 S2 24 0 (2) -1 1 12
Zj 1440 60 45 15 0 -
Cj – Zj 0 5 -15 0 -
Optimum column
122
The values of ‘S2’ row in the tableau - 2 are obtained as follows:
Old values in tableau 1 – (Incoming B row values in tableau 2 x S2 row’s inter-
sectional element in tableau 1)
Now the optimum column, i.e.; the column with highest positive
number in the Cj – Zj row, is that of T. So, in our next improved solution, T, i.e.,
Tables , will enter production mix. When ‘T’ enters, something must be removed
from existing product mix, either B or S2 which has to be removed? This is
decided by the lowest value of the improvement index found in the last column
of tableau – 2. It is least for S2. So, S2 will be outgoing and B will be incoming
in tableau 3.
Improvement Solution : Tableau – 3
Cj Product Quantity Cj value: 60 50 0 0 Improvement
Column Mix Column Index (I I)
B T S1 S2
50 T 12 0 1 -1/2 1/2
B 15 1 0 5/8 -3/8
60 Zj 1500 60 50 12.5 2.5
Cj – Zj 0 0 -12.5 -2.5
Optimum column
123
Old values in tableau 2 – (Income T row values in tableau 3 x Inter sectional
element of ‘B’ row in tableau 2)
24 - ( 12 x 3/4 ) = 15
1 - ( 0 x 3/4 ) =1
3/4 - (1 x 3/4 ) =0
1/4 - (-1/2 x 3/4 ) = 5/8
0 - ( 1/2 x 3/4 ) = -3/8
Let an hour of cutting can be hired out for Rs.C and finishing for
Rs.F. We have to find the minimum of ‘C’ and ‘F’.
If we take ‘T’ units of Tech. Book, ‘C’ units of Children book and
‘B’ units of Business book be produced, the objective function is :
Maximize : 2T + 4C + 3B
Subject to : 3T + 4C + 2B < 60
2T + 1C + 2B < 40
1T + 3C + 2B < 80
T, C, B > 0
125
The final solution to the problem is given in tableau – I. (Initial
and improvement solutions are not given).
We conclude that for filming capacity the range for which shadow
price holds at the present level is 15, (40-25) to 60 (40+20).
127
the slack quantity, i.e. below 53 1/3 hrs (80-26 2/3). For quantity > 53 1/3 the
shadow price will be same as ‘0’ as now.
The least positive quotient sets the limit by which profit can rise without
altering optimal solution. Here it Rs.2. The least negative quotient is the amount
by which profit per children book go down without altering optical solution.
Here it is Rs.2.5, So, range is : Rs.1.5 to 6 [(4-2.5) and (4+2)].
Similarly we can find that the range for business book is Rs.2 to
Rs.8. That is a decrease up to Re.1 and increase up to Rs.5 will not change
optimal solution.
128
Variable not in solution
4.9 LIMITATIONS OF LP
ii) The graphic solution seems easy, but can not be adopted when there
are more than two variables.
iii) The simplex method involves some complications. Those with lack of
a mathematical bent of mind would find it difficult to understand.
iv) LP would become more and more involved when more constraints are
there. Better special purpose algorithms have been developed, thus
relegating simplex method.
v) Degeneracy might result. That is some +ve value in the max. LPP or -
ve value in the min-LPP might continue to appear in the Cj-Zj row,
yet the Qty. Col. total remains same, indicating no improvement after
successive iterations.
129
vii) Redundancy is a problem, wherein constraints that not at all arise are
stipulated.
The last few are however, strictly not limitations. The LPP is not
well formulated. So, it is futile to blame the technique as such.
Multiple optima in an LPP means that the LPP has many solutions
giving the same objective function value.
130
SELF-ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS
1. Explain the LP technique as an optimization technique.
2. What are the managerial applications of LP?
3. Enumerate the limitations of LP.
4. A company produces 3 products A, B and C giving a profit of Rs. 1000, Rs.
4000 and Rs. 5000 per unit respectively. O1, O2 and O3 are the materials
required. The requirement is as follows per unit of output of A, B and C:
- A B C
O1 3 - 3
O2 1 2 3
O3 3 2 -
The available quantity of O1, O2 and O3 is 22, 14 and 14 units
respectively. To maximize profit, find the optimum product mix.
5. Write the dual for the above problem, solve the same.
6. Maximize: 6X + 4Y
Subject to: 2X + 3Y < 30
3X + 2Y < 24
X+Y>3
X, Y > 0
7. Write notes on:
a) Initial solution; b) Objective function; c) Non-negativity condition; d)
Constraints; e) Feasible region; f) Optimum column; g) Intersectional elements;
h) Artificial resource
8. What are degeneracy, redundancy, unboundedness and infeasibility.
9. Explain the significance and process of sensitivity analysis.
10. A Toffee company mixes 3 types of toffees to form one kilogram of Toffee
gift pack sold at Rs. 300. The three toffees cost Rs. 200, Rs. 250 and Rs. 280 per
kg each. The mixture must contain at least 0.3 kg of first type of Toffee and the
weight of the first two must at least be equal to that of the third. Find the optimal
mix.
131
LESSON 5
5.1 MEANING:
132
i) To decide the transportation of new materials from various centres to
different manufacturing plants. In the case of multi-plant company this
is highly useful.
133
5.3 MECHANISM OF TRANSPORTATION MODEL:
The mechanism of transportation model is explained with an
example.
Illustration 1:
Decide how many truck loads of sand from the supply points to the
different projects in order to reduce transportation cost.
Solution
The above problem can be presented in a table form.
Origin Destination Total supply
A B C
X 12 8 18 120
Y 17 10 12 80
Z 19 5 8 100
Total demand 80 100 120 300
134
Approximation method, Row Minima Method, Column Minima method and
inspection method are some of the methods. Let us take up the North West
Corner method to develop the initial solution. Consider table 1 given below.
The north west corner rule is logical and systematic method to find
the initial solution. You start with north west corner cell, viz, XA cell. It means
sending supplies from X to project A. X has a total capacity of 120 loads. A
needs only 80 loads. So, ‘A’s demand is fully met from X. This allotment is
written in a bracket within XA cell. Since A’s need is fully met we can move to
project B. Now balance available with ‘X’ needs to be exhausted first. So we
move horizontally from XA cell to XB cell.. The balance 40 loads of X is
allotted to B. This is indicated in the bracketed figure in XB cell. B requires a
total of 100 loads. So, it still needs 60 more load of sands. We have to use the
supply with the next source viz. Y. So we move vertically down to YB from XB.
From Y, 60 loads are to be sent B. This is indicated by the figure in the bracket
in YB. Now that B’s requirement is fully met, you move to C and still some
capacity is available with Y. Our move is horizontal to YC. 20 units of available
balance with ‘Y’ allotted to project C. Still project ‘C’ needs 100 more loads.
We move down to ZC and the available stock with Z is just sufficient to meet the
balance needs of C. This is a case of supply being equal to demand type
135
problem. Initial solution as obtained under north west corner method is as
follows: From X to A 80 loads, X to B 40 loads, Y to B 60 loads, from Y to C 20
loads and from Z to C 100 loads are transported. This is only an initial solution.
A better solution you have to find from the above. Arrow marks are made to
present flow of allotments made.
If one load is allotted to XC, one load must be subtracted from XB,
one load must be added to YB and one load must be subtracted from YC. This is
necessary so that the supply constraints of X and Y and the demand levels of B
and C are not affected. What would be the effect on cost of this more? X to C
costs Rs.18 and Y to B costs Rs.10. Withdrawal of a load from X to B saves
RS.8 and form Y to C saves Rs.12. The overall effect of this : 18-8+10-12=Rs.8.
Sending a load of sand to XC results in extra cost of Rs.8. this has to be avoided.
Similarly for other unoccupied cells evaluation is to be done. To send a load to
YA: YA-YB+XB-XA. The effect on cost would be :17-10+8-12=5. This is also
no good.
To send a load A to Z, would require one load less for XA, one
load more for XB, one load less for YB, one load more for YC and one load less
for ZC. That is: ZA – ZC + YC + YB + XB – XA. You might note the
136
mechanism. You start from the empty cell (giving a+). You move either
vertically or horizontally, never diagonally to a stone cell. You take turn only at
the stone cell. And so on. Ultimately you get back to the empty cell you started
from. These routes are explained in table 2.
Y (60) (20) 80
Z (100) 100
(+) (-)
Total demand 80 100 120 300
137
XC: XC-XB+ZB-ZC = 18-8+5-8 =3
YA: YA-XA-XB+ZB-ZC+YC =17-12+8-5+8-12 =4 (loop again)
YB: YB-YC+ZC-ZB =10-12+8-5 =1
ZA: ZA-XA+XB-ZB =19-12+8-5 =10
XA : 80 x 12 = 960
XB : 40 x 8 = 320
YC : 80 x 12 = 960
ZB : 60 x 5 = 300
ZC : 40 x 8 = 320
ii) Suppose in any row or column the smallest cost figures repeat.
These repeat values are taken for penalty computation and the
penalty is case in such cases.
iii) Select the row or column with the largest penalty and circle that
value. In case of a tie, select the column or row that permits the
greatest movement of materials.
vi) With a column or row thus deleted, (as per step in above) with
the reduced number of columns/rows repeat the process (i) to
(ii) until all assignments are made.
Let us consider our problem in question.
Illustration2:
139
Table 1 : VAM : PENALTY
A B C Supply Row penalty
X 12 (8) (18) 120 12 – 8 = 4
(80)
Y (17) (10) (12) 80 12 – 10 = 2
Z (19) (5) (8) 100 8–5=3
Demand 80 100 120 300
Column 17 – 12 = 5 8–5=3 12 – 8 = 4
penalty
B C Supply Penalty
X (40) (8) (18) 40 18 – 8 = 10
Y (10) (12) 80 12 – 10 = 2
Z (5) (8) 100 8–5=3
Demand 100 120 220
Penalty 8–5=3 12 – 8 = 4
Now the highest penalty is 10 in row X. The least cost cell in row
X is XB. 40 units with X are given to B and B > read reduces to 60 from 100.
new penalty is now constructed in table 3 below.
B C Supply Penalty
Y (60) (20) 80 12 - 10= 2
(10) (12)
Z (5) (100) (3) 100 5–3=2
Demand 60 120 180
Penalty 10 – 5 = 5 12 – 3 = 9
The highest penalty is 9 in column C. The least cost cell is ZC. So,
100 units from Z are sent to C. Now Z row gets eliminated. This leaves us with
140
only Y row. So, whatever is available with Y has to be given to ‘B’ and ‘C’ B
gets 60 from Y and C gets 20. And this ends all initial distribution.
Note this initial solution is same as the one obtained under the
North west corner rule. But of need not be so. Improved solutions have to be
found. Table 4 gives the picture.
So, K1, K2 and K3 and R1, R2 and R3 are the notations for the three
columns and three rows respectively. The cost of a cell can be represented by
Cij-ith row and jth column. C1,1 refers of cost of the first row - first column cell.
(1) 12 = R1 + 0 or R1 = 12
(2) 8 = 12 + K2 or K2 = -4
141
(3) 10 = R2 + (-4) or R2 = 14
(4) 12 = 14 + K3 or K3 = -2
(5) 8 = R3 + (-2) or R3 = 10
Now, the cost effect of sending one load to each of the unoccupied
cells viz., 1,3; 2,1; 3,1; and 3,2; have to be found. This is given by Cij - Ri - Rj
Now you look for the cell with the largest -ve cost effect. It is ZB. We have to
send loads from Z to B. The closed loop would be: ZB - YB + YC - ZC.
Now, from YB to YC 60 units are transferred making the total to
80. From ZC to ZB, 60 units are transferred. The new position is given in table
4.
A B C Total
supply
12 8 18
X (80) (40) 120
17 10 12
Y (60) (20) 80
19 5 8 100
Z
(100)
Setting any of the Rj's or Kj's as equal to zero, we can solve the
remaining Ki's and Kj's. Let R1 = 0.
The cost effect for non-stone cells be worked out using the
formula: Cij – Ri – kj
Now all figures are +ve indicating no improvement is possible hence form.
Table 5
143
A B C Total
supply
12 8 18 120
X (80) (40)
17 10 12 80
Y (80)
19 5 8 100
Z (60) (40)
Illustration 3
Given in the table are the supply and demand factors and the
transportation cost matrix. Find the optimal distribution.
144
Deport A B C D Total
Factory Supply
P 4 6 8 6 700
Q 3 5 2 5 550
R 3 9 6 5 550
Total 1800
Need 400 450 350 500 1700
Solution
Here the supply exceeds demand. So a Dummy Depot is to be
added with a need or demand of 100 units. The initial solution under North West
Corner Rule is given in table 1.
145
Table 1: Initial Solution
A B C D Dummy Total
supply
P 4 6 8 6 0
(300) 700
(400)
Q 3 5 2 5 0
For PC: PC - PB + QB – QC = 8 - 6 + 5 - 2 = 5
For PD: PD = PB – QB – QD = 6 - 6 + 5 - 5 = 0
For P Dummy: P-Dummy - PB + QB - QD + RD - R-Dummy
: 0 - 6 + 5 - 5 + 5 - 0 = -1
For QA: QA - PA + PB - QB = 3 - 4 + 6 - 5 = 0
For RA: RA - PA + PB - QB + QD - RD
:3-4+6-5+5-5=0
146
Note that the movement in any improvement is limited to the
minimum quantity of the -ve stone cells in the loop. In this case the loop is P-
Dummy – PB + QB - QD + PD -R-Dummy. QD in old assignment has the
minimum of 50 units. So the movement is limited to successive add/less of 50
units. Any higher movement would result in -ve figure at the minimum -ve stone
cell which is not realistic. Table 2 gives the 2nd solution.
Now improvement may be worked out for the empty cells in the
table 2.
For PC: PC - PB + QB - QC = 8 - 6 + 5 - 2 = 5
For PD: PD - P-Dummy + R-Dummy - RD = 6 - 0 + 0 - 5 = 1
For QD: QD - QB + PB - P-Dummy + R-Dummy - RD = 5 - 5 + 6 - 0 + 0 - 5 = 1
For Q-Dummy: Q-Dummy - QB + PB - P-Dummy = 0 - 5 + 6 - 0 = 1
For RA: RA - R-Dummy + P-Dummy - PA = 3 - 0 + 0 - 4 = -1
For RB: RB - R-Dummy + P-Dummy - PB = 9 - 0 + 0 - 6 = 3
For RC: RC - R-Dummy + P-Dummy - PB + QB - QC = 6 - 0 + 0 - 6 + 5 - 2 = 3
For QA: QA - PA + PB - QB = 3 - 4 + 6 - 5 = 0
For RA cell there is –ve cost impact figure.
147
So, distribution from R to A is advantageous. Table 3 gives the
new distribution.
Table 3: 3rd Solution
A B C D Dummy Total
supply
4 6 8 6 0
P (350) (250) (100) 700
3 5 2 5 0
Q
200 (350) 550
3 9 6 5 0
R (50) (500) 550
Total
Demand 400 450 350 500 100 1800
Now, all the empty cells have (computations not given) positive
cost effects. So, table 3 gives the optimum solution. As per this, the distribution
is:
P to A: 350 units; cost: 350 x 4 = 1400
P to B: 250 units; cost: 250 x 6 = 1500
(P to Dummy is in effect no distribution) = 0
Q to B: 200 units; cost: 200 x 5 = 1000
Q to C: 350 units; cost: 350 x 2 = 700
R to A: 50 units; cost: 50 x 3 = 150
R to D: 500 units; cost: 500 x 5 = 2500
Total Cost Rs. 7250
148
5.5 TRANSPORTATION MODEL WITH SUPPLY LESS THAN
DEMAND
Illustration 4
Solution
Step I
The above cost figures are not to be considered in isolation. First
we have to ascertain the per unit return net of transportation costs. This is as
149
follows: Net return = Gross ex-factory return - Relevant transport cost. This is
given below in the table 1.
Step II :
This return per unit matrix has to be converted into a cost matrix.
This is done as follows. Find the highest net return figure. It is Rs. 9. Subtract all
net return figures from 9 and construct the matrix. This is done in the table 2 that
follows, which also gives the quantity factors and initial solution.
1 3 1
C (200) (1000) 1200
Total
Demand 800 1200 1000 3000
150
X Y Z Total
supply
0 1 8
A (600) (400) 1000
B 5 3 4
(800) 800
1 3 1
C (200) (1000) 1200
Total
Demand 800 1200 1000 3000
Table 2 solution is the optimum one. Detailed workings are not
given. So, from A 600 units to X and 400 units to Y, from B 800 units to Y,
from C 200 units to X and 1000 units to Z are to be sent. The profit would be =
units times net return.
JOB-MACHINE ASSIGNMENT
Illustration 5:
151
Job Mac. X Mac. Y Mac. Z
A 30 30 25
B 45 18 25
C 21 17 15
TABLE 2
Job Mac. X Mac. Y Mac. Z
C 0 0 0
Step 3: Draw straight lines, horizontally and vertically, to connect the zeros in
the above table. Minimum number of lines must be used. If that minimum
number of lines equals the jobs/machines, an assignment is possible. Here it is
possible.
152
Step 4 : Match jobs with machines wherever the cell figures are zero. Give
priority to row/column with only one zero. Z column has only one zero. So, job
C be assigned to Z; And the zero is CZ is boxed. Any other zero in C row to Z
column will be crossed out. This reduces the number of zeros in other rows and
columns too. Row A has only one zero; in X column. So, job A be assigned to
machine X. This leaves job B be assigned to machine Y.
Illustration 6:
The job-machine cost matrix is given below:
Job Mac. X Mac. Y Mac. Z
A 25 31 35
B 15 20 24
C 22 19 17
Determine the optimum assignment
Solution:
Step 1: Row-wise, subtract minimum value from respective row
figures. (instead column wise, you can do this way also). 25 is subtracted from
row 1 figures, 15 subtracted from row 2 figures and 17 from row 3 figures.
We get figures as found in table 1.
Table 1
153
Step 2: For the resulting figures we go column-wise deducting
each column minimum value from respective column figures and we get figures
as found in table 2.
Table 2
Job Mac. X Mac. Y Mac. Z
A 0 4 10
B 0 3 9
C 5 0 0
Step 4: Find the lowest value number not covered by any st. line.
Subtract this number from each of the numbers not covered by any st. line. Add
that number to the figure found at the intersection of any two st. lines. Other
numbers are left untouched. Accordingly, the lowest number is 3. This is
subtracted from 4, 10, 3 and 9 and added to 5 at the intersection. We get:
A 0 1 7
B 0 0 6
C 8 0 0
154
5.8 TRAVELLING EXECUTIVE/SALESPERSON PROBLEM:
Illustration 7
The following distance matrix among 5 places are given.
To places (figs. In kms)
From A B C D E
A 0 44 82 91 65
B 44 0 26 71 36
C 82 26 0 49 80
D 91 71 49 0 59
E 65 36 80 59 0
Find the least cost route if the person has to start from A and get
back to A visiting all places.
Solution
Follow steps 1 and 2 of the assignment model, which diagonal
figures A-A, B-B, C-C, D-D & E-E set to infinity.
155
TABLE1
Row-wise subtraction
A B C D E
A ∞ 0 38 47 21
B 18 ∞ 0 45 10
C 56 0 ∞ 23 64
D 42 22 0 ∞ 10
E 29 0 44 23 (
TABLE 2
Column wise subtraction
A B C D E
A ( (0) 38 24 11
C 38 (0) ( (0) 54
D 24 22 (0) ( (0)
E (11) 0 44 (0) (
156
move costs 11 kms. Still it is the available best, the unused zeros are cross
marked. The route is A-B-C-D-E-A. The total distance is: 44 + 26 + 49 + 59 +
65 = 243 kms.
Questions
1. Explain the meaning and uses of transportation and assignment
models.
2. Explain the methods of North West corner rule and Vogel's
approximation method for finding the initial solution.
3. Explain the MODI and stepping stone methods with an example of
your own.
4. Explain the mechanism of assignment model.
5. How would you deal with supply-demand inequalities in
transportation?
6. Discuss the procedure of assignment model for traveling executive
problem.
7. T.C.Mellott trucking company has a contract to move 115 truckloads
of sand per week between three sand-washing plants, W, X and Y,
and three destinations, A, B and C. Cost and volume information is
given below. Compute the optimal transportation cost using the
stepping – stone method.
157
Project Requirement per week, Plant Available per week,
truckloads truckloads
A 45 W 35
B 50 X 40
C 20 Y 40
COST INFORMATION
From To Project A To Project B To Project C
Plant W Rs. 5 Rs. 10 Rs.10
Plant X 20 30 20
Plant Y 5 8 12
8. Sid Lane hauls oranges between Florida groves and citrus packing
plants. His schedule this week calls for 520 boxes with locations and costs
as follows:
Grove Available per week Packing plant Requirement per week
A 170 W 130
B 250 X 200
C 100 Y 190
COST INFORMATION
From To plant W To plant X To plant Y
Grove W Rs.12 Rs. 8 Rs.5
Grove X 11 15 10
Grove Y 2 7 6
158
9. Jack Evans Owns several trucks used to haul crushed stone to road
projects in the country. The road contractor for whom Jack hauls, N, Teer,
has given Jack this schedule for next week.
Jack figures his costs from the crushing plant to each of the road projects to be
these:
COST INFORMATION
From To Project A To Project B To Project C
Plant W Rs.4 Rs.8 Rs.3
Plant X 6 7 9
Plant Y 8 2 5
10. Coley’s Machine shop has four machines on which to do three jobs.
Each job can be assigned to one and only one machine. The cost of each
job on each machine is given in the following table. What are the job
assignments which will minimize cost.
Machine
Job W X Y Z
A Rs. 18 Rs.24 Rs.28 Rs.32
B 8 13 17 19
C 10 15 19 22
159
LESSON 6
PROBABILITY : CONCEPTS AND USES
160
Similar to the above, the probability of getting an even number
side up of a dice is = No. of even number sides of a dice / total no. of sides of the
dice = 3/6 = 0.5.
161
6.2 BASIC TERMS
163
6.4.1 Addition Rule
What is the probability that a card drawn is either diamond or spade? P(diamond
or spade) = P(Diamond) + P(Spade) = ¼ + ¼ = ½.
Illustration 1
The frequency distribution of brokerage commission earned in a
month from a survey of 300 stock brokers is as follows:
Solution
Illustration 6.2
Solution:
Illustration 6.3
165
Solution
Let ‘A’ denote illiquidity, ‘B’ denote below par and ‘AB’ denote both.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
P(A or B) = 1 – % of nil problem
= 1 - .8 = .2
Illustration 6.4
Solution
Illustration 6.5
A stock broker says out of his clients 63% give “purchase” orders
and 32% have over 3 years association with him. 21% of clients are with 3 years
association placing “purchase” orders. What is the P that a client placing
“purchase” order has more than 3 years association?
Solution
This is a case of conditioned probability. Let ‘A’ denote
“purchase”, ‘B’ denote over 3 year standing and ‘AB’ denote those with 3 year
166
placing a “purchase” order. What is required is P(B/A) = P(BA)/P(A) =
0.21/0.63 = 0.33.
Illustration 6.6
Solution
Let ‘A’ denote equity investment and ‘B’ denote income exceeding
Rs.3,50,000. P(A) = .52; P(B) = .6 and P(A/B) = 0.75. Required is P(AB). We
know that, P(A/B) = P(BA)/P(B). So, 0.75 = P(BA) / 0.6. So, P(BA) = 0.45.
Illustration 6.7
Solution
167
P(First-time/male) = P(First time and male) / P(Male)
= (65/250) / (130/250) = 65 / 130 = 0.5
Solution
Fortnight Beginning
Full moon New moon Total
Growth 7 10 17
Decline 8 5 13
15 15 30
P(G) = 17 / 30 = 0.567
P(G/F) = P(GF) / P(F)
= (7/30) / (15/30) = 7 / 15 = 0.467
Illustration 6.9
Solution
Solution
i) P(both cards are king) = P(1st king).P(2nd King)
= 4/52 x 4/52 = 1/169
ii) P(first king & second queen) = P(1st king) P(2nd queen)
= 4/52 x 4/52 = 1/169
Illustration 6.11
Solution
Doubles could be : 1,1; 2,2; 3,3; 4,4; 5,5; 6,6
Let p = P(1,1; 2,2; 3,3; 4,4; 5,5 or 6,6) = 6/36 = 1/6
q = 1 – p = 1 – 1/6 = 5/6
n = 3 (Number of trials)
Illustration 6.12
An urn contains 3 while balls, 4 red balls and 5 black balls. Two
balls are drawn: what is the probability that i) both and red? Ii) both are white?
And iii) one red and one white?
Solution
Total balls = 3 + 4 + 5 = 12
i) P(2 red) = 4C2 / I2C2 = [(4X3)/2] / [(12X11)/2] = 1/11
ii) P(2 white) = 3C2 / I2C2 = 3 / (12x11 / 2) = 1/22
iii) P(1R & 1W) = [(4C1X3C1) / I2C2 = (4X3) / (12X11 / 2) = 2/11
Illustration 6.13
Solution
170
6.5 BAYE’S THEOREM (REVISING PRIOR ESTIMATES OF
PROBABILITY
Illustration 6.2.1
Solution
P(A) x P(D/A)
i) P(A/D) =
P(A)xP(D/A) + P(B)xP(D/B) + P(C)xP(D/C)
0.25 x 0.02
=
(0.25x0.02) + (0.35x0.04) + (0.4x0.05)
0.005 0.005
= =
0.005 + 0.014 + 0.020 0.039
= 0.128
171
P(A) x P(D/A) + P(B) x P(D/B)
ii) P(A/D or B/D) =
P(A)xP(D/A) + P(B)xP(D/B) + P(C)xP(D/C)
Illustration 6.2.2
Solution
Let ‘A’ denote knowing the correct answer and ‘α’ not knowing
the correct answer. Let ‘B’ denote getting the correct answer either knowing the
answer or through guess.
So, P(B/A) = 1;
P(B/α) = ¼ = 0.25, since one of the 4 answers is correct.
172
i) Intelligent candidate
P(A) = 0.9 and P(α) = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1
P(α) x P(B/α)
P(α/B) =
P(A) x P(B/A) + P(α) x P(B/α)
0.1 x 0.25
=
(0.9 x 1) + (0.1 x 0.25)
0.025 0.025
= = = 0.027
0.9+0.025 0.925
P(α) x P(B/α)
P(α/B) =
P(A) x P(B/A) + P(α) x P(B/α)
0.8 x 0.25
=
(0.2 x 1) + (0.8 x 0.25)
0.2 0.2
= = = 0.5
0.2+0.2 0.4
173
Illustration 6.3.1
Solution
Σ(R) = ΣRi Pi
Σ(R) = 12%(0.1) + 13%(0.2) + 14%(0.4) + 15%(0.2) + 16%(0.1)
= 1.2 + 2.6 + 5.6 + 3 + 1.6
= 14%.
Illustration 6.3.2
Solution
174
QUESTIONS
4. In a survey of 400 investors 50% hold equity investment, 80% hold debt
investments. Find those who hold both debt and equity investments.
175
LESSON – 7
SIMULATION FOR DECISION MAKING
176
To optimize on the situation a simulation model was thought of
with the components:
i) the size distribution of orders for carpets
ii) the spatial distribution of orders for carpets
iii) the style distribution of orders for carpets
iv) the shade distribution of orders for carpets
v) the production operation by style
vi) the production operation by shade
vii) the inventory of carpets by size
viii) the inventory of carpets by shade
ix) the inventory of carpets by style
x) the cutting process time
xi) the cutting process personnel capabilities
xii) the price of sold carpet and remnants
What will be our college enrolment per year over the nest 5 years?
This depends on i) Number of schools (contributing to our enrolment) and
colleges (competing with us for enrolment) within a radius of say 50 kms, the
fee structure in the different colleges, the demand for different courses, the
launching of new courses, the population in the area, transformation facility, etc.
A simulation model can be thought of.
Many use simulation technique. What are the reasons? The reasons
are:
179
i) For most business problem cases simulation is the only technique to
be used, because a long period experimentation in real life is difficult,
but the same can be done through simulation taking each trial as a
day’s experiment.
ii) Total reality can be replicated, something not possible in mathematical
models.
iii) No mathematical model even after simplification of the problem case
is possible in certain cases.
iv) Actual experiment as opposed to simulation, involves destruction of
property. (eg: testing life of bulbs, tubes, etc.)
v) Actual observation can’t be done just like that as in the case of
accidents.
180
7.6 TYPES OF SIMULATION
7.7 ILLUSTRATIONS
Using Monte Carlo method same problems are take up. Using this
method involves using random numbers.
181
The profit after tax and hence cash flow cannot be computed as tax
rate, T is not predictable. Further as ‘k’ is not predictable, present value cannot
be computed as well. So, we use simulation here.
182
For the first value of the unpredictable variable, we assign random
number 00 to 19. For the second value was assign random numbers 20 – 69 and
for the third value 70 – 99 are assigned. Similarly for the variable ‘K’ random
numbers are assigned. These are given in the above table 4.6.
n
NPV = Σ CFt / (1+k)t - I
t=1
We have just taken one pair of random numbers from the table and calculated
the NPV is Rs.10,56,798.
183
n
NPV = Σ CFt / (1+k)t - I
t=1
= (11,85,000/1.11+11,85,000/1.112 + 11,85,000/1.113) – 18,00,000
= (10,67,598 + 9,61,773 + 8,66,462) – 18,00,000
= 28,95,803 – 18,00,000 = Rs. 10,95,803
184
Simulate 5 trials for introducing the new product for each
engineering strategy taking the following random numbers: 49, 67, 06, 30 and 95
for Strategy I and 01, 10, 70, 80 and 66 for Strategy II for both development
time and sales volume and find the worth of the strategies.
Solution :
First we have to construct cumulative probability distribution and
random number range for development time strategy wise, for the two strategies.
Cumulative Probability and R. No. Range (two digits)
Development time
Sales volume 6 months 9 months 12 months
P Cu.P R.Nos P Cu.P R.Nos P Cu.P R.Nos
10,00,000 0.21 0.21 00-20 0.38 0.38 00-37 0.51 0.51 00-50
15,00,000 0.79 1.00 21-99 0.62 1.00 38-99 0.49 1.00 51-99
185
R.Nos. Development time Sales Volume
49 9 15,00,000
67 12 15,00,000
06 6 10,00,000
30 9 10,00,000
95 12 15,00,000
Volume varies from run to run. So, worth also varies run to run.
Worth Run 1 = (2.5 x 15,00,000) / 6,00,000 = 6.25
Run 2 = (2.5 x 15,00,000) / 6,00,000 = 6.25
Run 3 = (2.5 x 10,00,000) / 6,00,000 = 4.16
Run 4 = (2.5 x 10,00,000) / 6,00,000 = 4.17
Run 5 = (2.5 x 15,00,000) / 6,00,000 = 6.25
186
Total = 27.08
Average = 5.416
Strategy II
Selling price – Variable cost = Rs.10 – 6.75 = Rs.3.25.
Investment = Rs. 15,00,000
Total = 16.25
Average = 3.25
Strategy I has worthier than II.
187
Solution
First of all from the frequencies given, probability (frequency of a
value / total frequency of all) be obtained. From that the cumulative probability
distributions and random number range assignments (two digits) can be done, as
follows.
188
Officer waits more than the customer. Only one customer has to
wait for one minute. Service level is being high as waiting time is very less and
queue is also very small, just 1.
(* The officer has to wait 4 minutes beginning 10-00 his office start time and till
the arrival of the first customer. Again he has to wait 2 minutes from 10.05 to
10.07. The third customer has to wait for one minute as he arrived at 10.09, but
the service for 2nd customer had to go till 10.10. And so on.)
Daily sale 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability 0.06 0.14 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.03
Solution:
First random number assignment based on cumulative probability
distribution is called for.
189
8 0.16 0.71 55-70
9 0.12 0.83 71-82
10 0.08 0.91 83-90
11 0.06 0.97 91-96
12 0.03 1.00 97-99
190
Notes: on the fifth day-end order is placed for 50 units as stock falls below
reorder level. The stock is received on 10th day end. Mean while on 10th day, the
opening stock was only 4 units. Demand 7 units; so lost sales (i.e.. sales lost for
want of stock) 3 units. Next days, the opening stock is 50 units.
Receipts (Rs.lakhs) : 15 16 17 18 19 20
Probability : 0.30 0.25 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.05
Expenses (Rs.lakhs): 13 14 15 16 17 18
Probability : 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.05
Solution
Step 1: Since monthly figures are given and annual position is asked at least 12
runs must be made. For these 12 runs, let the R.Nos. pairs for receipts – payment
combination be: 15:48, 20:98, 73:06, 60:45, 44:15, 18:19, 58:15, 61:67, 18:90,
00:58, 32:68 and 65:73.
191
Step 2: Cumulative probability and R.No. assignment
Receipts Payments
Value P Cu.P R.No Value P Cu.P R.No
15 0.30 0.30 00-29 13 0.15 0.15 00-14
16 0.25 0.55 30-54 14 0.20 0.35 15-34
17 0.15 0.70 55-69 15 0.25 0.60 35-59
18 0.15 0.85 70-84 16 0.20 0.80 60-79
19 0.10 0.95 85-94 17 0.15 0.95 80-94
20 0.05 1.00 95-99 18 0.05 1.00 95-99
192
At year end a cash balance of Rs.12 lakhs remains. The peak point
is Rs.13 lakhs on hand during the 8th month. The lowest point is in the 2nd month
with overdraft of Rs.1 lakhs. The overdraft is returned in the next month itself.
QUESTIONS
1. Explain the simulation and its practical uses.
2. How does simulation compare with mathematics? State the merits and
limitations of simulation.
On the basis of 5 runs find the cash position of the bank given the random
number pairs: 18, 28; 42, 31; 81,09; 92,91; and 07,90 for deposits and
withdrawals respectively.
193
On the basis of 10 runs. Find the mean launch time. You may use the first to
R.Nos. pairs given in 7.7.5 Illustration in respective order.
Using Monte Carlo simulation technique, determine the expected profit from the
above investment on the basis of 50 trials. What is the variance of this expected
profit?
Using the simulation procedure, determine the waiting times on the basis of
50 arrivals.
194
8. A firm adopts the model for calculation of profit :
Profit = (selling price – variable cost) Number of units sold
- Fixed factory cost – Marketing cost – Administrative cost
9. A trader in a town has studied his varying monthly sales and monthly
expenses (including the value of goods) and has arrived at the following
empirical distributions.
195
i) The trader at the beginning of the year has Rs.2,000 in the bank.
Simulate his sales and expenses over a year. Assume that the trader
can avail temporary overdraft facilities to cover any negative balances.
ii) How much money does the trader have at the end of the year?
iii) What is the low point in his finances during the year.
iv) Use the R.Nos. in illustration 7.7.5 in respective order.
10. How do you simulate inventory problems? Explain with the choice of
variables that need to be brought into our model.
196
LESSON 8
DECISION THEORY
197
8.1 FACTORS IN A DECISION FRAME-WORK
E1 O1,1
O
A1
E2 O1,2
E1 O2,1
O
A2
E2 O2,2
198
We can also present these acts, events and outcomes in a matrix
form, taking acts in rows and events in columns and the outcomes in the cells as
follows:
Illustration 1
Let the two acts be i) High-tech process and ii) Low-tech process.
Let the total cost of each of the Acts be: Rs.8 lakhs and Rs. 6 lakhs. Let the
events be i) High demand and ii) Low demand. Let the sales value for high
demand for high-tech be Rs.10 lakhs and for high demand for high-tech be Rs.7
lakhs. Let the sales volume for high demand for low-tech be Rs.8 lakhs and for
low demand for low-tech be Rs.5 lakhs. Let the probability for high and low
demand levels for high-tech be 50:50 and the same for low-tech be: 60:40. Find
the expected values of high-tech and low-tech.
199
Solution:
Table 8.2 gives the problem in a nut shell.
PAY-OFF TABLES
Pay-off tables present the monetary gains or losses of outcomes of
Act-Event combinations.
Illustration 2
Suppose you have to conduct a function of large gathering. Two
alternative courses are there: you can go for a open-air-stadium or an indoor
stadium. These are the two strategies. Three states of nature, mainly normal, hot
and chill climates are possible. The turn out of guests is forecast as follows
under varied circumstances given in table 8.3.
200
Table 8.3 : Events and Acts
Strategy Normal Climate Hot Climate Chill Climate
Open-air stadium 1,00,000 1,70,000 40,000
Indoor stadium 1,10,000 80,000 2,00,000
Pay-off table gives both possible gains and losses of different act-
event combinations.
.Illustration 3
Suppose daily sales in units be any of the following : 10, 11, 12 &
13. Profit per unit sold is Rs.5 and loss per unit unsold is Rs.3, being the cost
unsold as these are worthiness. States of nature, demand levels, are therefore 10,
11, 12 & 13. Suppose four acts, i.e., carrying 10, 11, 12 & 13 units in stock are
adopted. Then the excess capacity loss (loss arising out of demand less than
supply) and under capacity loss (loss arising out demand greater than capacity to
supply) are as follows in the table 8.5.
201
Table 8.5 : States of Nature or Events
Stock levels (Acts) Demand Levels (States of Nature or Events)
10 11 12 13
10 0 5 10 15
11 3 0 5 10
12 6 3 0 5
13 9 6 3 0
Values in each column below zero, are excess capacity loss arising
out of excess stock and values above zero in each column are over capacity loss
figures. Zeros indicate neither of the losses. Excess capacity loss may be called
obsolescence loss and the under capacity loss may be called opportunity loss.
202
The figures of realized profit are arrived at as follows:
The expected profit for each stock level is simply, the sum of
relevant profit multiplied by probability for diff. demand levels.
i) Expected profit for stock = 10 is : 50x.1 + 50x.2 + 50x.3 + 50x.4 = 50
ii) Expected profit for stock = 11 is : 47x.1 + 55x.2 + 55x.3 + 55x.4 = 54.2
iii) Expected profit for stock = 12 is : 44x.1 + 52x.2 + 60x.3 + 60x.4 = 56.8
iv) Expected profit for stock = 13 is : 41x.1 + 49x.2 + 57x.3 + 65x.4 = 57
203
iii) Expected loss for stock = 12 is : 6x.1 + 3x.2 + 0x.3 + 5x.4 = 3.2
iv) Expected loss for stock = 13 is : 9x.1 + 6x.2 + 3x.3 + 0x.4 = 3.0
Now compare the expected pay-off computed earlier, with the
expected loss, for diff stock levels. The stock level that yields maximum
expected profit has the lowest expected loss as well. The sum of these is the
profit under certainty.
The optimum stock level is 13 units, with highest profit and hence
lowest loss.
Let the probability distribution be 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 for demand
levels of 10, 11, 12 and 13 units and unit profit is Rs.5. At these levels of
204
demand, the certainty based profit would be Rs.50, 55, 60 and 65 (i.e. units x
Rs.5). By multiplying these certainty level profits by the probability values, we
get: 50x.1 + 57x.2 + 60x.3 + 65x.4 = 5 + 11 + 18 + 26 = Rs.60.
Illustration 4
Demand ‘D’ : 20 25 30 35
No. of weeks : 5 10 20 15
Suggest the optimal act. Construct loss table also. Ascertain the EPVI.
Solution
205
(1)Expected conditional profit method
Conditional profit is given by : PD – L(S-D), for S>D and PD for
S<D. With P = 3 and L = 5, the above becomes : 3D – 5(S-D) or 8D-5S for S>D
and 3D for S<D. Look at figures in table 8.8
206
Table 8.9 : Conditional Loss
Acts (or) levels of States of nature or demand levels
production
20 25 30 35
20 0 15 30 45
25 25 0 15 30
30 50 25 0 15
35 75 50 25 0
Computation of EVPI
207
8.5 INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS.
Illustration 5
Let the incremental profit be IP, when the incremental unit is sold
and incremental loss be IL, when the incremental unit is not sold. Let the
probability of sale of additional unit be ‘P’ and it not being sold is 1 – P.
We can deduce the value of ‘p’ from the inequality: P(IP) > (1-
P)(IL)
I.e., P(IP) > IL – P(IL)
I.e., P(IP) + P (IL) > IL
I.e.. P(IP + IL) > IL
I.e., P > IL/(IP+IL)
208
The value of ‘P’ helps ascertaining the optimal stock level. Here, IL = Rs.1.2 and
IP = 3 – 1.2 = 1.8. Therefore P > 1.2 / (1.8 + 1.2) > 1.2 / 3 > 0.4
Demand : 15 16 17 18 19 20 > 21
Probability : 0.04 0.14 0.33 0.26 0.11 0.07 0
Greater than
Cum. Prob : 1.00 0.96 0.77 0.44* 0.18 0.07 0
Illustration 6
During 1st year, three possible market outcomes are foreseen. Low
penetration, moderate penetration and high penetration are the three outcomes,
whose probability values, respectively, are 0.3, (i.e., 30% chance), 0.4 and 0.3
209
and the cash flows after tax under the three possible outcomes are respectively
estimated to be Rs.1,60,000, Rs. 2,20,000 and Rs. 3,00,000.
210
S. 1st Year 2nd year 1st year 1st year 2nd year 2nd year Joint
cash proba- cash flow proba- probabilit
No. penetra- penetra-
flow bility bility y (P1 x P2)
tion tion
(P1) (P2)
1 Low Low 160000 .3 80000 .2 0.06
2 Low Moderate 160000 .3 200000 .6 0.18
3 Low High 160000 .3 300000 .2 0.06
4 Moderate Low 220000 .4 260000 .3 0.12
5 Moderate Moderate 220000 .4 300000 .4 0.16
6 Moderate High 220000 .4 320000 .3 0.12
7 High Low 300000 .3 320000 .1 0.03
8 High Moderate 300000 .3 400000 .8 0.24
9 High High 300000 .3 480000 .1 0.03
211
Table
S.No. PV of 1st PV of 2nd PV of both NPV of each Joint Expected
year flow year flow year flows stream Prob. NPV
(1) (2) (3) (4) =(2)+(3) (5)=(4)- (6) (7)=(5)(6)
400000
1 145440 50080 195520 -204480 0.06 -12269
2 145440 165200 310640 - 89360 0.18 -16085
3 145440 247800 393240 - 6760 0.06 - 403
4 199980 214760 414740 14740 0.12 1709
5 199980 247800 447780 47780 0.16 7645
6 199980 264320 464300 64300 0.12 7716
7 272700 264320 537120 137130 0.03 4111
8 272700 330400 603100 203100 0.24 48744
9 272700 346920 619620 219620 0.03 6889
Total 1.00 47395
212
i) Maximin, i.e., maximum of minima or WALD criterion
ii) Maximax, i.e., maximum of maxima or HURWICZ criterion
iii) Minimax regret criterion or SAVAGE criterion
iv) Minimum regret criterion
v) Discarding on inadmissible act
vi) Hurwicz optimism-pessimism coefficient criterion
vii) Jacob Bernoulli method or Laplace criterion or Baye’s postulate.
Illustration 8.7
The pay-off matrix for certain act – event combinations is as
follows:
Events
Act E1 E2 E3
A1 25 400 650
A2 -25 440 400
A3 -125 400 750
Solution
As per maximin criterion, the row minima are 25, -25, and 125.
The maximum of these minima is 25. Therefore, act A1 will be chosen.
213
MAXIMAX PAY-OFF CRITERION OR HURWICZ CRITERION
In the illustration 8.8.1 cited above, the row maxima are: 25, 440
and 750. The maximum of these maxima is 750 and the strategy corresponding
to this is A3.
Illustration 8.8
Consider the following pay-off matrix
Events
Acts E1 E2 E3 E4
A1 14 9 10 5
A2 11 10 12 7
A3 9 12 10 11
A4 15 10 11 13
215
Illustration 8.9
The following payoff matrix is given to you.
Solution
First we get the row maximum and minimum as follows:
Maximum Minimum
Process A 8 1
Process B 7 2
Process C 6 3
Process D 8 3
216
dividing the aggregate payoff by number of events. The act, i.e.; the row, with
highest mean pay-off is selected.
Illustration 8.10
The following table gives the payoff of certain act – event
combinations:
Events
Act E1 E2 E3
A1 -120 200 260
A2 -80 400 -260
A3 100 -300 600
Solution
Simply add up the pay-off figures row-wise and divide them by 3,
viz, the number of events. This amounts to giving equal probability for all
events. We get the following figures.
Total Average
A1 : - 120 + 200 + 260 340 113
A2 : - 80 + 400 – 260 80 27
A3 : 100 – 300 + 600 400 133
QUESTIONS
1. Explain the concept of statistical decision theory and the concepts used
here.
3. Unit is Rs.10 and unit cost is Rs.5 unsold unit is price worth Rs.2 only.
For 10, 11, 12 and 13 units of supply (Acts) and Demand (Events)
construct conditional loss table.
217
4. For the problem (3) construct conditional profit table and compute
expected profit given probability of 0.2, 0.25, 0.25 and 0.2 for 10, 11, 12
and 13 units of demand. Also compute expected loss. Which is the right
strategy?
218
Strategies State of Nature
S1 (3) S2 (3) S3 (4)
a1 40 50 80
a2 80 30 20
a3 50 40 30
a4 30 40 50
10. A fruit seller sells strawberries. If not sold on the day of delivery, they are
worthless. One case of strawberries cost Rs.200, and the seller receives
Rs.500 for it. The seller cannot specify the number of customers on any
one day, but his analysis of past records shows the following results.
Find the best stock option for the seller so that he can optimize his
profits. Find the EVPI.
219
MODEL QUESTION PAPER
Paper 1.4: QUANTITATIVE METHODS
220
Strategies State of Nature
S1 (3) S2 (3) S3 (4)
a1 40 50 80
a2 80 30 20
a3 50 40 30
a4 30 40 50
Use the EOL criterion to choose the best action.
PART – B (4 x 15 = 60 Marks)
Answer any FOUR questions
9. What is trade-off? How is the same relevant to decision making? How is
it effected?
11. The cost function for a firm producing x units is: TC = 5x + 350 and its
revenue function is: TR = 5x - x2. Find the demand function, break-even-
point, profit maximizing output and sales maximizing output. [Hint: i)
For break-even point, solve for x, by equating TC = TR].
221
COST INFORMATION
From To Project A To Project B To Project C
Plant W Rs. 5 Rs. 10 Rs.10
Plant X 20 30 20
Plant Y 5 8 12
222